DashTrash
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Thu Feb 13, 2014 7:20 pm

Quoting norcal (Reply 35):

Piedmont doesn't have a CRJ-700 program, that'll take time to set up and they would still need to take concessions.

Piedmont had a CRJ program approved back in '02-'03 timeframe. Why would they need to take concessions? I'm sure AAG would float an offer and get some yes votes should it go that far, but Piedmont is a pissed off / worn out pilot group.

With L-AE and XJT rejecting concessionary deals in the last few months major airlines have a decision to make. Start charging what the product actually costs to provide or draw down regional flying. Hopefully it's both. DEN-ATL is in no way, shape, or form "regional" flying.
 
tyler81190
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Thu Feb 13, 2014 8:26 pm

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 36):
According to airfleets, AA have 173 MD80 in storage, in addition to 154 operational.

How many could realistically be returned to service.

Also what would the economics be like?.

Well, once aircraft go into storage, it is usually because they hit a major maintenance check. So the cost of bringing the mx up to snuff would be high. Not to mention that once an aircraft retires, it is usually cannibalized for parts for the fleet still flying. Then you have the amount of pilots to hire to fly those planes.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 40):
A little off topic, but how is the pilot shortage solved? Let's say someone waves a magic wand and doubles pilot pay at the regionals. That doesn't solve the issue of pilots needing 1,500 hours, in order to be hired at any carrier, mainline or regional.

If you double or even quadruple pay tomorrow, it will take probably 5 years to see any effect. That is, for the next generation to decide to, and achieve the ratings and hours required to fly.

Quoting norcal (Reply 44):
That is an option, but who is going to do all of PSA's current flying? AAG just lost 15 aircraft worth of flying with Republic. Eagle is hemorrhaging 50 pilots a month (about 5 aircraft). Yes they are planning on parking 50 seaters, but this is happening way too fast and not on their terms.

I think maybe AAG might just possibly realize that they have opened pandora's box. Never before has management threatened to close up shop to get a good contract for them selves, and then the employees tell them to close it down because they aren't taking a pay cut, and they can just go elsewhere. Add in that they are losing pilots too fast to even try to cope, I really think they are doomed.

Quoting thrufru (Reply 45):
In most instances a Union has absolutely no ability to procure jobs for displaced individuals at other properties. While Unions are often represented on hiring boards (as they are at my carrier) they don't necessarily have a tremendous deal of influence. We'll often network and do our best to assist displaced employees, but in most instances the decision to hire rests with the company, not the union. APLA's promise to assist MQ pilots in doing anything but identifying potential work options is not really all that heartening.
Quoting SPQR (Reply 46):
On top of getting the planes back in service, they would also have to come up with pilots. If they had to activate 50, that would be 500 pilots needed, most or all would come from regionals making it even harder to shift the work back once things stabilize.

Could this end up being a long term shift in the frequency vs capacity battle? Moving more flying to larger main lines would reduce frequency, but would also reduce overall demand for pilots. This could end up getting planes like the Cseries a second look by carriers if they are forced to use smaller end mainline for more than just a temporary fill.

AAG would basically have to close MQ and bring all of those pilots to mainline to revive those aircraft, to cover what they are doing to MQ. You see what I did there?   On the flip side, I think this will send a message to other regionals. But when the chips fall at the end of the day, or decade, I think regional airlines will be shrinking as mainline carriers won't want to put up with this nonsense. They will instead favor smaller mainline aircraft like the Cseries or perhaps the SSJ (one day, I hope).
 
justplanenutz
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Thu Feb 13, 2014 8:45 pm

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 51):
AAG would basically have to close MQ and bring all of those pilots to mainline to revive those aircraft, to cover what they are doing to MQ.

At what point does management decide it's better to upgrade the E-175 order to E-190s and just fly them mainline?
 
norcal
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Thu Feb 13, 2014 8:46 pm

Quoting justplanenutz (Reply 48):
In the next ~18 months (excluding the 60 E175s in question), AA has committed to 58 new 76 seat large RJs (24 more E175s for Republic, 30 CR9s for PSA and 4 CR9s for Mesa). That is 4,408 seats. We know Republic is parking 15 ERJ-140s, so that is 660 seats. PSA's 35 CR2s would be another 1,750 seats. That would still allow AAG to ground nearly the entire MQ ER-140 fleet (59 frames) and not lose any capacity.

And in 18 months time 1,661 pilots reach Age 65, or nearly 160 aircraft worth of regional jets. Mainlines will actually need more pilots because of Part 117. There is also growth and other industry players like Spirit (rapidly expanding) and Jet Blue, and foreign carriers.


Replacing the number of seats in 50 seaters with a like quantity of seats in 76 seaters doesn't solve the problem. There will be a need for a set number of airframes in order to operate a network and there is a place for 50 seaters. Delta and United have plans to operate regional fleets of around 450 aircraft each (down from approximately 550 for each now). AAG has a little under 600 regional aircraft at this time. They may or may not copy what Delta and United does, but lets's say they do, that's a net reduction of 150 aircraft for them, a total of about 450 for all three carriers.

In 5 years time, there will be over 7,000 mainline pilots reaching Age 65, or 700 aircraft worth of pilots (that number doesn't take into account Part 117, Sprit, JetBlue, etc., growth, and foreign carrier requirements). The numbers just keep getting worse from there for regional airlines.


59 MQ ERJ-140s might be parked, but it won't be because it is in AAG's planes. At 50 pilots a month attrition rate, going on right now at Eagle, they'll be forced to park 60 aircraft in 12 months. Attrition will likely get worse after this recent announcement.

[Edited 2014-02-13 12:51:15]
 
tyler81190
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Thu Feb 13, 2014 8:56 pm

Quoting justplanenutz (Reply 52):
At what point does management decide it's better to upgrade the E-175 order to E-190s and just fly them mainline?

Even if they did, I doubt they would be able to get enough of them in time to stem a massive loss of capacity from MQ. MQ pilots know the company basically doesn't want them around, and have threatened to liquidate (like anyone would buy the beleaguered carrier) in a failed attempt to force the pilots into a horrible long term contract. MQ pilots hold the cards, and will likely find employment with mainline carriers, some with AA. The lower hour pilots may have to go to other regionals for a year or two until they are able to get into a mainline. But the real issue is the lack of new pilots. AA just doesn't have the ability to stop this, unless they say "hey, we will have all of you $5,000 signing bonus, plus a 30% raise, and a pension". I don't see this working out well for AAG.

Not to mention the standard this will set for other regionals. The other regional pilots may look at this and get smart and stand up for their rights.
 
silentbob
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Thu Feb 13, 2014 9:20 pm

Quoting norcal (Reply 35):
Piedmont doesn't have a CRJ-700 program, that'll take time to set up and they would still need to take concessions

The Eagle and PSA pay rates would actually be an increase for a lot of the Piedmont guys.

Quoting justplanenutz (Reply 42):
Couldn't AAG simply replace the 35 PSA-operated CR2s with Eagle's CR7s? That is net growth of 12 frames (in addition to the CR9s). If Parker really wants to get medieval, it rewards PSA and chops the head off MQ.

I think most of those CR2s are going to be parked one way or another. Either to staff the new 900s or to make room for the Eagle CR7s.
 
bennett123
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Thu Feb 13, 2014 9:23 pm

I have done a bit more research about the scope for re activating some MD80's.

I can not factor in the number that were close to a D Check.

However, on the basis that the number stored pre 2010 are likely to be heavily cannabilised, then the number drops from 173 to 84.

If those stored pre 2012 are also excluded, then the number drops to about 40.

Does anyone have a handle on roughly how long an aircraft will typically sit at ROW before they start picking it to pieces.

As already pointed out, the MD80's will also need (mainline) pilots, but if frequencies are reduced then it would mitigate the problem of pilot numbers a little.
 
tyler81190
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Thu Feb 13, 2014 9:30 pm

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 56):
Does anyone have a handle on roughly how long an aircraft will typically sit at ROW before they start picking it to pieces.

As already pointed out, the MD80's will also need (mainline) pilots, but if frequencies are reduced then it would mitigate the problem of pilot numbers a little.

It depends on the need of other aircraft, The interiors will sometimes be stripped before entering storage. Avionics and cockpit instruments may hold on until they are needed as spares, but probably not more than a year.

They could be put back together, but it would be a large financial burden.
 
norcal
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Thu Feb 13, 2014 9:32 pm

Quoting silentbob (Reply 55):
The Eagle and PSA pay rates would actually be an increase for a lot of the Piedmont guys.

There is a LOT more that goes into a pilot contract than just pay rates.

[Edited 2014-02-13 13:32:49]
 
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LAXintl
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Thu Feb 13, 2014 9:47 pm

So pilots opt to slit their throats.


Well the hammer now falls.
MQ CEO Pedro Fabregas in employee letter set out what the plan forward look like:

o MQ will not get the 60 E175 jets.
o Move CRJ700s to other regional operators
o Proceed with retiring some of the smaller aircraft in current fleet
o Continue work in making flying operation as competitive as possible as fleet is downsized
o 3rd party ground-handling operations will continue as they profitable.

http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2...on-vote-against-new-contract.html/

=
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
Turboprop72
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Thu Feb 13, 2014 10:17 pm

So pilots opt to slit their throats.


Well the hammer now falls.
MQ CEO Pedro Fabregas in employee letter set out what the plan forward look like:

o MQ will not get the 60 E175 jets.
o Move CRJ700s to other regional operators
o Proceed with retiring some of the smaller aircraft in current fleet
o Continue work in making flying operation as competitive as possible as fleet is downsized
o 3rd party ground-handling operations will continue as they profitable.

http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2...on-vote-against-new-contract.html/

=
WHO are the other regional operators that can staff 100+ aircraft at this time? 47 CR7 + 60 E175. Good luck to AAG!
 
GSPSPOT
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Thu Feb 13, 2014 10:19 pm

So, as a (relatively new) AA passenger in an AA-dominated market, what will this mean to me in practical terms going forward? We fly to lots of RJ markets for business and personal reasons.
Great Lakes, great life.
 
Flaps
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Thu Feb 13, 2014 10:28 pm

I wouldn't be too quick to gloat. With Republic parking 27 ERJ's there is an immediate home for half of the 175's on order, WIth hub consolidation and rationalization between US and AA quite a bit of regional capacity could be freed up. Maybe not enough to replace MQ completely but enough to make quite a dent. The only places the bottom half to two thirds of the displaced pilots will have nowhere to go but other regionals where they will be starting all over again, PHX will be substantially downsized IMHO in favor of DFW. More rationalization can expected between PHL and JFK. While both hubs will remain there is a lot of duplication there that could be eliminated as well, How many jets and crews will that provide? Enough to make a very large dent in covering the lost MQ capacity, The MQ MEC may have just stepped into a trap.

As is typical of union operations, the top third will survive at the expense of the bottom two thirds, As the MEC members are usually in that top third, no surprise at the decision.
 
bennett123
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Thu Feb 13, 2014 10:29 pm

The part that seems strange to me is that he says that "they will remain an airline", he then talks about the Ground Handling Operations.

From the passenger point of view, Ground Handling Operations do not make you an Airline.

Will CRJ700's be more viable than ERJ's?.
 
AV8AJET
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Thu Feb 13, 2014 10:31 pm

I wonder if some of the -700's would transfer over to OO & EV and replace the current CR2's in LAX & DFW?
"To fly or not to fly there is no question!"
 
silentbob
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Thu Feb 13, 2014 10:42 pm

Quoting norcal (Reply 58):
There is a LOT more that goes into a pilot contract than just pay rates.

Sure, but I would put everything I have in those guys taking the AA deal as it was written, if it was offered to them. They might even take concessions of the deal Envoy was offered.

Quoting GSPSPOT (Reply 61):
So, as a (relatively new) AA passenger in an AA-dominated market, what will this mean to me in practical terms going forward? We fly to lots of RJ markets for business and personal reasons.

Well, the entire Envoy staff just lost all motivation to do anything extra for the company. I would expect anyone that was on the fence about leaving to head for greener pastures immediately. It may result in staffing problems more quickly than anticipated.
 
bostonmike
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Thu Feb 13, 2014 10:44 pm

Quoting Flaps (Reply 62):
As is typical of union operations, the top third will survive at the expense of the bottom two thirds, As the MEC members are usually in that top third, no surprise at the decision.

Interesting math. And just how do the MEC FO reps suddenly bypass captains?
In my humble opinion, this was a gut-wrenching decision made by courageous representatives of their membership.
Thanks to all of you!
 
XFSUgimpLB41X
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Thu Feb 13, 2014 10:52 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 59):
So pilots opt to slit their throats.


Well the hammer now falls.
MQ CEO Pedro Fabregas in employee letter set out what the plan forward look like:

o MQ will not get the 60 E175 jets.
o Move CRJ700s to other regional operators
o Proceed with retiring some of the smaller aircraft in current fleet
o Continue work in making flying operation as competitive as possible as fleet is downsized
o 3rd party ground-handling operations will continue as they profitable.

http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2...html/

And who's going to fly them? One of the other regionals that can't even adequately staff what they already have? It's time for APA to make a run for these and bring them to mainline. US already has an approved training program for the type and it would be nothing more than a memo to qualify current 190 pilots on the 175s.
Chicks dig winglets.
 
TPA0822
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Thu Feb 13, 2014 10:54 pm

Bloomberg is reporting on the issue:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...ts-reject-contract.html?cmpid=yhoo

According to the article, "Leaders of the Air Line Pilots Association unit at Eagle decided yesterday not to have members vote on the agreement in principle with the regional airline."

Then, the article goes on to say, "Our pilots decided they were not willing to work for less than the company is already paying our peers,” union Chairman William Sprague said in a message to members."

First the union says leaders of the union decided not to let their members vote, then they go on to say "our pilots decided..." as if they did vote.

Good luck to all the Eagle pilots.
 
Flaps
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Thu Feb 13, 2014 11:07 pm

Quoting BostonMike (Reply 66):
In my humble opinion, this was a gut-wrenching decision made by courageous representatives of their membership.

That is a possibility. On the other hand they may have shot themselves in the foot. Time will tell, Ive been in the industry for 30 years now and have been on both sides of the fence. AA has been looking for a solution to the MQ issue for a long time. Knowing full well that they were unlikely to gain more concessions I am putting my money on AA/US having planned for this eventuality.

Either way the next 12 months will be interesting to watch,

Quoting BostonMike (Reply 66):
Interesting math. And just how do the MEC FO reps suddenly bypass captains?

By the way, There are plenty of FO's out there with very high seniority, In my experience seniority ruled over the number of bars you wore. At least for layoff purposes. A ten year FO that has not upgraded still outranks a 3 year captain with five years seniority, at least in the contracts I have worked. MQ's of course may differ.
 
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jfklganyc
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Thu Feb 13, 2014 11:13 pm

Quoting Turboprop72 (Reply 60):

WHO are the other regional operators that can staff 100+ aircraft at this time? 47 CR7 + 60 E175. Good luck to AAG!

Good line. Anybody in the room can fly to CMH tonight???? Been there, heard that. Reality is, there are no pilot for the regionals. The shortage has arrived.

Quoting Flaps (Reply 62):
The MQ MEC may have just stepped into a trap.

Unions are good at gloating and chest thumping.
In this case, they made a tough decision in a new world.

Here's a riddle for a.net: Who gets employed at another airline first, the pilot or the airplane?

The new answer: THE PILOT
 
norcal
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Thu Feb 13, 2014 11:34 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 59):
So pilots opt to slit their throats.

No one can staff it?

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 59):
Well the hammer now falls.
MQ CEO Pedro Fabregas in employee letter set out what the plan forward look like:

MQ will be shut down, but not on AAG's terms. Pilots were fleeing MQ at a rate of 50 per month (5 airplanes worth) BEFORE this deal was turned down. Most weren't leaving to go to other regionals but were in fact leaving for AA, UA, DL, Spirit, JetBlue, Corporate, etc.

This won't be a controlled shut down, but rather an implosion. AAG will suffer because they won't be able to keep up and shift regional capacity fast enough.

Quoting Flaps (Reply 62):
I wouldn't be too quick to gloat. With Republic parking 27 ERJ's there is an immediate home for half of the 175's on order,

Why is it so hard for the Anet community to understand that these airplanes weren't parked as part of a plan? They were parked prematurely because they had no pilots to fly them! Bryan Bedford said as much! RAH won't have 270 pilots sitting around after parking these waiting to do something. They are being redistributed to go to aircraft already scheduled to be delivered. Republic can't take on anymore AAG flying they have their hands full already. Those ERJs were supposed to stick around longer, RAH invested in a restructuring of Chautauqua in order to keep these plans flying longer. RAH was unable to grow their seniority list in order to take on this new flying and maintain current flying as planned.

Neither United or RAH management intended for these birds to be leaving so soon. Same goes for ExpressJet and Commutair, this flying is being reduced earlier than scheduled because no one can find the pilots to fly the planes.

Mesa is already committed to approximately 40 new airplanes and SkyWest is committed to 30 new ones. There is no one that can take on this additional flying in a timely matter.

Quoting Flaps (Reply 62):
WIth hub consolidation and rationalization between US and AA quite a bit of regional capacity could be freed up. Maybe not enough to replace MQ completely but enough to make quite a dent. The only places the bottom half to two thirds of the displaced pilots will have nowhere to go but other regionals where they will be starting all over again, PHX will be substantially downsized IMHO in favor of DFW.

Not a chance. In the next 5 years, over 7,000 mainline pilots reach Age 65. That is 700 aircraft worth of regional flying. The mainlines are planning on a net reduction of maybe 350 to 400 regional aircraft. That is a significant shortfall. The military won't be able to produce enough pilots to cover it either. The Air Force is offering $225,000 retention bonuses to deal with their shortage of fighter pilots!

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013...rs-retention-bonuses-up-to-225000/

That 7,000 number does not take into account the additional pilot jobs that will be available due to natural industry growth, the hiring requirements of low cost carriers, Part 117 rest rules, and growing foreign opportunities with foreign carriers. It isn't unreasonable to estimate that the their might be 9-10,000 mainline jobs available in the next 5 years from all of these sources.

Quoting Flaps (Reply 62):
As is typical of union operations, the top third will survive at the expense of the bottom two thirds, As the MEC members are usually in that top third, no surprise at the decision.

Funny, I didn't realize all those FO representatives were in the top 1/3 of the company. If reports are correct it was actually one of MQ's FO reps that was the deciding vote.
 
tyler81190
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Fri Feb 14, 2014 12:58 am

Quoting GSPSPOT (Reply 61):
So, as a (relatively new) AA passenger in an AA-dominated market, what will this mean to me in practical terms going forward? We fly to lots of RJ markets for business and personal reasons.

It means that this summer, I would book away from all MQ flights, as there is an increasing likelihood of there being no crew for the flight.

Quoting silentbob (Reply 65):
Well, the entire Envoy staff just lost all motivation to do anything extra for the company. I would expect anyone that was on the fence about leaving to head for greener pastures immediately. It may result in staffing problems more quickly than anticipated.

I would agree, I believe another poster put it right... MQ will not be shut down by AA, the pilots will push the button, and it will IMPLODE!!! hahahahaha

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 70):
Good line. Anybody in the room can fly to CMH tonight???? Been there, heard that. Reality is, there are no pilot for the regionals. The shortage has arrived.

The beginning of the shortage has arrived... The worse will be this summer with the already thinly covered schedules. Then even worse in the fall as they begin to hemorrhage more pilots to the majors.
 
DDR
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Fri Feb 14, 2014 1:25 am

The truly sad thing about this whole mess is that American Eagle provides the best service of any regional airline. Their service is equal to AA mainline. NO other regional in the States can compare. It is truly a shame that AA would let such a quality operation slip away.

I truly believe all this is a moot point anyway. With the upcoming REGIONAL pilot shortage, the regionals will have absolutely no choice but to raise wages and working conditions if they want to attract new hires.

To ant Eagle employees whom might be reading this, you should be proud! You operate a quality company.
 
atct
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Fri Feb 14, 2014 1:30 am

I am proud to support Eagle in stopping their race to the bottom. (excuse me, Envoy).

ATCT
Trikes are for kids!
 
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Acey559
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Fri Feb 14, 2014 1:48 am

Quoting norcal (Reply 39):

My impression is that it was a pilot wide email and phone call campaign to the representatives on the MEC telling them to kill the deal.

There was no actual pilot vote, just a ton of pilot pressure apparently.

Pilots did not vote on this AIP. We emailed our MEC and LEC reps and it was killed at that level. It never went out to a pilot vote.

Quoting GSPSPOT (Reply 61):

So, as a (relatively new) AA passenger in an AA-dominated market, what will this mean to me in practical terms going forward? We fly to lots of RJ markets for business and personal reasons.

Nothing. It'll be business as usual although the company MAY try to do something stupid in the immediate future to save face, but no idea what that'll be at this point.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 59):
So pilots opt to slit their throats.


Well the hammer now falls.
MQ CEO Pedro Fabregas in employee letter set out what the plan forward look like:

o MQ will not get the 60 E175 jets.
o Move CRJ700s to other regional operators
o Proceed with retiring some of the smaller aircraft in current fleet
o Continue work in making flying operation as competitive as possible as fleet is downsized
o 3rd party ground-handling operations will continue as they profitable.

The CRJs were gone no matter how the vote went. Eagle will probably be gone after a while but it'll be because there won't be anyone around to staff it. The airline will shrink with attrition and that'll probably be that. A few senior folks will stay until the end and retire, but that'll be their choice. Management even admitted the 170 airplane "guarantee" was farce. We were told they wouldn't meter the flow no matter what, even if they couldn't staff the 170 planes, so that "guarantee" was as weak as the rest of the contract. Smoke and mirrors.

Quoting norcal (Reply 71):
Pilots were fleeing MQ at a rate of 50 per month

My seniority went up 167 numbers in the past two months. We're absolutely going to shrink but it's not going to be on the company's terms. Shoot, even Pinnacle is hiring now and management said FOR SURE they'd have to furlough.
In Dixie Land I'll take my stand to live and die in Dixie.
 
tyler81190
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Fri Feb 14, 2014 1:49 am

Quoting DDR (Reply 73):
The truly sad thing about this whole mess is that American Eagle provides the best service of any regional airline. Their service is equal to AA mainline. NO other regional in the States can compare. It is truly a shame that AA would let such a quality operation slip away.

I truly believe all this is a moot point anyway. With the upcoming REGIONAL pilot shortage, the regionals will have absolutely no choice but to raise wages and working conditions if they want to attract new hires.

To ant Eagle employees whom might be reading this, you should be proud! You operate a quality company.

MQ is truly one of the best regionals out there. They really are the shining star of service, and professionalism in everything they do. Though they are not the only regional to have had such a reputation. ExpressJet while still under CO control had the same service and professionalism, and even after the divestiture, many of their crews still operated the same way.

Quoting atct (Reply 74):
I am proud to support Eagle in stopping their race to the bottom. (excuse me, Envoy).

ATCT

I wholeheartedly support the Eagle pilots in this venture. I am sad to see a company try to treat such a great bunch of people so poorly. I hope they really stick it to AA.

On the flip side, one thing no one has mentioned... What happens to cabin crew from MQ here? Are they just going to be cast aside?
 
KD5MDK
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Fri Feb 14, 2014 3:09 am

Quoting Acey559 (Reply 75):
My seniority went up 167 numbers in the past two months.

Thanks for providing some hard data. It would be nice to know this in the future if convenient.
 
tyler81190
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Fri Feb 14, 2014 3:31 am

Quoting Acey559 (Reply 75):
My seniority went up 167 numbers in the past two months. We're absolutely going to shrink but it's not going to be on the company's terms. Shoot, even Pinnacle is hiring now and management said FOR SURE they'd have to furlough.
Quoting kd5mdk (Reply 77):
Thanks for providing some hard data. It would be nice to know this in the future if convenient.

Well, after this, I would love to see what happens next month. I wonder if there will be more people leaving after this news?
 
mcoatc
Posts: 167
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Fri Feb 14, 2014 4:05 am

Quoting Acey559 (Reply 75):

My seniority went up 167 numbers in the past two months. We're absolutely going to shrink but it's not going to be on the company's terms. Shoot, even Pinnacle is hiring now and management said FOR SURE they'd have to furlough.

My buddy is the low man on the totem pole at Pinnacle (Endeavor?), and has been for a couple of years. Despite the company needing to "cut" hundreds of pilot jumps, he has flown continuously, as everyone above him has voluntarily left. No doubt, the same is happening at MQ.

I hardly consider myself a union hardliner, and I certainly believe that the company needs to remain financially solvent, but this race to the bottom BS needs to stop now. This is not a $250,000 a year 777 captain who works 5 days a month looking for a raise, and people need not say things such as:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 59):
So pilots opt to slit their throats.


Well the hammer now falls.

Just like the NK guys slit their throats? Yeah, it's different, but at some point enough is enough. I enjoy my job, but there is certainly a salary number at which I would no longer do it, because the sacrifices to my life aren't worth the pay. It seems the MQ folks saw it the same way. Best of luck to all of you.

Quoting atct (Reply 74):
I am proud to support Eagle in stopping their race to the bottom. (excuse me, Envoy).

   Ditto
 
norcal
Posts: 1507
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2005 1:44 am

RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Fri Feb 14, 2014 3:00 pm

Quoting Acey559 (Reply 75):
Pilots did not vote on this AIP. We emailed our MEC and LEC reps and it was killed at that level. It never went out to a pilot vote.

So what I heard was correct then. That's probably the best solution. Doesn't allow management to see how close they were to passing a deal.

Quoting Acey559 (Reply 75):
The CRJs were gone no matter how the vote went.

I heard that as well and it makes sense, one fleet type at the wholly owned carriers.

Quoting Acey559 (Reply 75):
My seniority went up 167 numbers in the past two months. We're absolutely going to shrink but it's not going to be on the company's terms. Shoot, even Pinnacle is hiring now and management said FOR SURE they'd have to furlough.

That is staggering! I've heard you guys have already parked some aircraft, but that they remain active as spares in your system. Management will probably try and spin it as their wrath coming down, but there is no way that they can wind down the airline faster than the rate of attrition. It'll make for a great sound byte and I think the a-net crowd will eat it up as fact.

I've heard rumors of SkyWest having to cover some of Pinnacle's flying because Pinnacle can't staff it. They are hiring, when they should have furloughed over 50% of their seniority list. Clearly a lot of pilots bailed off that sinking ship.
 
DashTrash
Posts: 1311
Joined: Mon Aug 21, 2006 8:44 am

RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Fri Feb 14, 2014 3:10 pm

Quoting Flaps (Reply 62):
I wouldn't be too quick to gloat. With Republic parking 27 ERJ's there is an immediate home for half of the 175's on order

It's already been said, but RAH can't staff the frames they have now.

Quoting Flaps (Reply 62):
WIth hub consolidation and rationalization between US and AA quite a bit of regional capacity could be freed up.

Some will be, but AAG now has the unique problem of much of their regional feed facing staffing issues. Piedmont is looking at parking airplanes that are timing out. RAH can't staff what they have. ARW is floating along with 50 seat aircraft that aren't getting any younger and no replacement on the horizon, EGL just gave management the finger. Mesa is growing a little, but when push comes to shove will have the same staffing issues as RAH, PDT, etc.

Bottom line, if an airline in this day and age wants RJ feed, they're going to have to pay for it.

Quoting Flaps (Reply 62):
The MQ MEC may have just stepped into a trap.

It wasn't the MEC, as already been said. The pilot group bombarded the MEC with emails demanding they tell the company to go screw themselves.

What most of you who have never flown for a living don't understand is that at some point the job isn't worth it anymore. We know what we signed up for when starting this career, and we also expect that to change. We expect our income to change, hopefully for the better. We understand (post 9/11 anyway) that we may have to pitch in to help save the company. Business plans change, our compensation packages may need to change with the times.

With the exception of a spineless PSA pilot group the regional pilot group as a whole has decided that pay and working conditions are low enough, and won't go any lower to add to an already nice bottom line for the stockholder.

Quoting norcal (Reply 71):
This won't be a controlled shut down, but rather an implosion.

I hope you're right. It's about time a regional puts the parking brake on all at once legally.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 72):
It means that this summer, I would book away from all MQ flights, as there is an increasing likelihood of there being no crew for the flight.

Same with RAH, PDT, and ASA / XJT.
 
Shawn Patrick
Posts: 2465
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Fri Feb 14, 2014 7:54 pm

LAXintl doesn't believe in supply and demand.

As I said, you would get a lesson in that, very shortly. Well here's your lesson but you still wont acknowledge it!

Don't forget, XJT pilots just rejected a concessionary contract as well. Between XJT and MQ, that is about 40% of the regional pilots in the United States.

The sooner mainline management realizes that the cost of regional feed has bottomed, the sooner they can get to work rebuilding their regional feed.

Until then, passengers will suffer. Tremendously.
 
oc2dc
Posts: 469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2013 4:38 am

RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Fri Feb 14, 2014 8:47 pm

Quoting DDR (Reply 73):
The truly sad thing about this whole mess is that American Eagle provides the best service of any regional airline. Their service is equal to AA mainline. NO other regional in the States can compare. It is truly a shame that AA would let such a quality operation slip away.

They definitely had some of the best service. I also like the product consistency... I recently flew American Eagle operated by RP ORD-IND. The aircraft was unpainted and the interior was in dire straights. The crew wasn't very happy and the general feel was kind of depressing...Definitely a difference in quality between MQ and contracted partners. However, the one giant blemish MQ has to live with is its consistently poor on-time arrival. They are always on the bottom of the list...This summer those on-time arrivals will only get much much worse.
I'm not complaining, I'm critiquing...
 
ripcordd
Posts: 1079
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Fri Feb 14, 2014 8:48 pm

Couldn't AA Pilots come to the rescue and make a E175 scale for them to fly? FYI that plane is so very nice to fly
 
Shawn Patrick
Posts: 2465
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2000 7:30 am

RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Fri Feb 14, 2014 9:18 pm

Quoting ripcordd (Reply 84):
Couldn't AA Pilots come to the rescue and make a E175 scale for them to fly? FYI that plane is so very nice to fly
AA/US have already negotiated a payscale for EMB-175/CRJ-900 during bankruptcy. As mentioned, US already has a EMB190 training program in place. It would take a matter of weeks to add the EMB-175 to that training program. Adding EMB-175s would be "plug and play" at US.

IMO, this is the future of these aircraft.

[Edited 2014-02-14 13:19:12]
 
SonomaFlyer
Posts: 2216
Joined: Tue Apr 20, 2010 2:47 pm

RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Fri Feb 14, 2014 9:47 pm

Its now a question of AA mgt looking at the numbers and deciding whether its a money maker to bring the E175s to the mainline or not. They obviously want the feed but can they still make good money withtout the feed? How much is o/d vs. connecting passengers for the regionals etc?

There is a way out of this but AA doesn't want to be the first to eat the **it sandwich. They are concerned that taking those a/c onto the property would mean having to open things up on the other a/c payscales either now or by the next contract. AA doesn't have a E175 type pay scale IIRC.

So where will the E175s go?
 
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LAXintl
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Fri Feb 14, 2014 10:00 pm

Quoting Shawn Patrick (Reply 82):

LAXintl doesn't believe in supply and demand.

As I said, you would get a lesson in that, very shortly. Well here's your lesson but you still wont acknowledge it!

Its no a matter of supply & demand at all.

Ultimately is consumer behavior that drives the industry.

Airlines lack pricing power, and so long as consumer have established the price point they are willing to pay to get between A and B, the product must be produced at such cost, or consumer simply does not show up as air travel is a totally discretionary activity for most.

Its the same in host of other sectors, food industry, clothing, many consumer goods etc. Either hit the price point, or make no sales.

All this means is airlines must continue to circle the wagons and continue seeking cost efficiency to match consumer actions.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
Dtw757
Posts: 1270
Joined: Mon Oct 06, 2003 10:05 am

RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Fri Feb 14, 2014 10:10 pm

Quoting oc2dc (Reply 83):
I recently flew American Eagle operated by RP ORD-IND. The aircraft was unpainted and the interior was in dire straights. The crew wasn't very happy and the general feel was kind of depressing.

That had to be a sub aircraft. Probably a white and blue spare that YX can stick on any airline route for whom they fly. The "Eagle" 175's are all brand new and they are beautiful airplanes inside and out. Or was it a 140 operated by RP? In which case they also have white and blue sub aircraft but do not operate under the "Eagle" branding but rather they are still operating under the "Connection" branding until they are all parked this August.
721,2,732,3,4,5,G,8,9,741,2,3,4,752,3,762,3,4,772,3,788,D93,5,M80,D10,M11,L10,100,AB6,319,20,21,332,3,346,388,146,CR2,7,
 
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mercure1
Posts: 4594
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Fri Feb 14, 2014 10:34 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 87):
Ultimately is consumer behavior that drives the industry.

Airlines lack pricing power, and so long as consumer have established the price point they are willing to pay to get between A and B, the product must be produced at such cost, or consumer simply does not show up as air travel is a totally discretionary activity for most.

Its the same in host of other sectors, food industry, clothing, many consumer goods etc. Either hit the price point, or make no sales.

All this means is airlines must continue to circle the wagons and continue seeking cost efficiency to match consumer actions.

You make valid point

I like everyone have idea of what I will pay for a shirt, a steak, or airline fare. If I don't see the price, I don't buy.

For airlines its basically a zero sum game as they have to meet this consumer price point.

So if pilot are an issue and such cost rises, then something else must give to compensate to recover the expense to keep cost as otherwise you destroy your demand as consumers opt not to travel.
mercure f-wtcc
 
oc2dc
Posts: 469
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RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Fri Feb 14, 2014 11:14 pm

Quoting dtw757 (Reply 88):
That had to be a sub aircraft. Probably a white and blue spare that YX can stick on any airline route for whom they fly. The "Eagle" 175's are all brand new and they are beautiful airplanes inside and out. Or was it a 140 operated by RP? In which case they also have white and blue sub aircraft but do not operate under the "Eagle" branding but rather they are still operating under the "Connection" branding until they are all parked this August.

It was an ERJ140. It was indeed a white fuselage with a blue tail. No branding on the inside. It just had light grey seats... I definitely would have known if I was on an E-175, those things are very nice.
I'm not complaining, I'm critiquing...
 
Shawn Patrick
Posts: 2465
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2000 7:30 am

RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Sat Feb 15, 2014 12:09 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 87):
Its no a matter of supply & demand at all.

It is absolutely a matter of supply and demand - in the labor market.

Supply of pilots goes down - demand goes up. Price of pilots goes up. This is Economics 101 day 2 (after syllabus day).

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 87):
Its the same in host of other sectors, food industry, clothing, many consumer goods etc. Either hit the price point, or make no sales.

The airlines sure haven't had any problem hitting the price point. When fuel prices skyrocketed, ticket prices didn't budge.

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 89):
So if pilot are an issue and such cost rises, then something else must give to compensate to recover the expense to keep cost as otherwise you destroy your demand as consumers opt not to travel.

What gave when fuel prices skyrocketed to $150+/barrel? What expense was cut, that equaled the rise in airlines' fuel bill?

Fuel is a necessary and non-negotiable expense. Airlines are forced to suck it up and deal with it. They have done a spectacular job regaining profitability in the midst of a weak economy and oil still near $100/barrel.

Regional pilot pay has been quite negotiable in the past; however, new market realities are providing regional pilot unions with much more leverage due to the labor market supply & demand concept that LAXintl is still ignorant of. Just as airlines have been able to adjust to skyrocketing fuel prices (their biggest expense), they CAN and MUST adjust to the reality that the cost of pilots (you know... the people that actually make the "S" in "RASM" move) is going up.

Fortunately for airlines, pilot pay is NOT their biggest expense, and it will probably NOT be going up to the tune of 200+% as fuel has done in the last decade. The first airline that realizes this and accepts it, is the first airline that will be one step ahead of every other airline as they scramble to find pilots to maintain their precious revenue-generating regional feed.
 
justplanenutz
Posts: 588
Joined: Fri Feb 10, 2006 9:48 am

RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Sat Feb 15, 2014 12:12 am

Anyone know the pay rates for AA E-190 vs. the proposed Envoy e-175?
 
Shawn Patrick
Posts: 2465
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2000 7:30 am

RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Sat Feb 15, 2014 12:38 am

Quoting justplanenutz (Reply 92):
Anyone know the pay rates for AA E-190 vs. the proposed Envoy e-175?

Currently, at US Air E-190 pays hourly:
FO Year 1: $42
FO Year 12: $83

CA Year 1: $35
CA Year 12: $123

Source: http://www.airlinepilotcentral.com/airlines/legacy/us_airways

Proposed Envoy E-175 (smaller airplane) pays hourly:

FO Year 1: $26
FO Year 4: $40 (pay capped at year 4)

CA Year 1: $69
CA Year 12: $93

Source: Envoy AIP

US Air pay goes up upon date of signing of the pilots' unions joint contract.
 
User avatar
mercure1
Posts: 4594
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 5:13 am

RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Sat Feb 15, 2014 12:43 am

Quoting Shawn Patrick (Reply 91):
It is absolutely a matter of supply and demand - in the labor market.


This is interesting economic discussion, but you focus too much on only one specific portion, and not broader picture.

If supply (pilot) dries up then labor cost will go up (as you espuse) with result ticket price rise, then the demand goes further down and eventually need for pilots will also drop to restore balance as there is no need to move so many seats.

Rising pilot cost is not good for industry, or consumers. Eventually it will not be good for pilots either, as there will be need for less of them.

This is the more complete realistic economic picture.

Quoting Shawn Patrick (Reply 91):
The airlines sure haven't had any problem hitting the price point. When fuel prices skyrocketed, ticket prices didn't budge.

But ticket prices did go up unfortunately (you ever hear of "fuel surcharges"), so maybe you are not aware US airline traffic is down -6% in only a couple years. There are 6.5-7.5mil fewer clients flying today. Remember travel is a choice for most, so if price is not satisfactory people go do other things.
Less customers = less planes = less employees.

http://www.aviationplanning.com/DataFlashJuly252013.phtml

Also airlines (both US and global) have endured terrible financial losses which they have yet to recover and earn back the lost income.
mercure f-wtcc
 
Shawn Patrick
Posts: 2465
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2000 7:30 am

RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Sat Feb 15, 2014 1:00 am

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 94):
This is interesting economic discussion, but you focus too much on only one specific portion, and not broader picture.

If supply (pilot) dries up then labor cost will go up (as you espuse) with result ticket price rise, then the demand goes further down and eventually need for pilots will also drop to restore balance as there is no need to move so many seats.

Rising pilot cost is not good for industry, or consumers. Eventually it will not be good for pilots either, as there will be need for less of them.

This is the more complete realistic economic picture.

Your logic is flawed because you overestimate the overall cost of pilot compensation. It is a cost that airlines CAN absorb without raising ticket prices. You are very naive about this industry. You tend to give textbook answers that do not apply to this particular segment of overall airline costs that pilot pay represents.

Just to prove my point - go research how much profit airlines made in 2013. They were record-breaking profits. In particular, consider Delta Air Lines. DAL posted RECORD-breaking profits in 2013, at the same time they gave their pilots a giant pay raise. Their pilots now have an industry-leading compensation package, at the same time as they are making record profits. Oh, did I mention, they are hiring 300 pilots this year, and will continue hiring for the forseeable future?

So tell me again, how does increased pilot compensation cause ticket prices to rise, and pilot jobs to disappear? Leave your textbook answers out, because they clearly don't apply here.

[Edited 2014-02-14 17:01:59]
 
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LAXintl
Posts: 24059
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Sat Feb 15, 2014 1:41 am

Quoting Shawn Patrick (Reply 91):
This is Economics 101 day 2 (after syllabus day).

I think you need to stay for the entire class.

Others have tried to explain how the larger picture works. For every action there is a reaction, so just focusing on less pilots will equal higher wages is only looking at slice of the picture without seeing the other dominos on the table.

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 94):
This is the more complete realistic economic picture.

Absolutely right.

Labor cost and labor supply don't exist in a vacuum on their own, and are very reliant on outside influence.

It has been well proven that price has direct correlation for demand for air travel. Just go read the history on the "Southwest effect" and how pricing stimulates markets. Airlines are no different that virtually any other retail sector that is fighting to earn that same disposable consumer dollar.


So what will happen now?

Well airlines cannot raise their cost without either hurting margins or if they try to pass it on further eroding demand.

So the outcome is that the least efficient capacity (sub 50 seats) will get cut to better adjust to the existing pilot work force pool. Less flying, less planes, to keep CASM in tact.

Quoting Shawn Patrick (Reply 95):
Your logic is flawed because you overestimate the overall cost of pilot compensation.

Well since I just read it, according to Skywest, pilot labor cost made up 41.3% of block-hour cost at ExpressJet in 2013, up from 39.2 in 2012.

Quoting Shawn Patrick (Reply 95):
how does increased pilot compensation cause ticket prices to rise, and pilot jobs to disappear? Leave your textbook answers out, because they clearly don't apply here.

Like stated earlier, any cost increase is inflationary. One way or the other the cost must be absorbed. If its passed on the consumer and ticket prices rise there is direct correlation between price and consumer behavior. If less people fly, there is less need for airlines and flights, which means less workers ultimately.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
Shawn Patrick
Posts: 2465
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2000 7:30 am

RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Sat Feb 15, 2014 1:50 am

LAXintl, I don't have time now to address all of your points, but I notice you did not respond to my real-world example.

DAL gave massive raises to their pilots last year, while posting $2.7 billion profit. And they are hiring 300 pilots this year, to continue indefinitely. Now, please prove to me how that has caused ticket prices to rise, and flights to be reduced.

Once again, I ask you to get your head out of the textbook and into the real world.
 
User avatar
LAXintl
Posts: 24059
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Sat Feb 15, 2014 2:19 am

Quoting Shawn Patrick (Reply 97):
DAL gave massive raises to their pilots last year, while posting $2.7 billion profit. And they are hiring 300 pilots this year, to continue indefinitely. Now, please prove to me how that has caused ticket prices to rise, and flights to be reduced.

Well lets see.

US domestic fares are up since 2009 (both real and constant dollar basis) - DOT link
http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/airfares...ompare/airports-metropolitan-areas

Industry enplanements are down since 2007 peak - link
http://www.statista.com/statistics/1...air-carrier-domestic-enplanements/

And Delta is shrinking ASM yoy - annual report link
http://www.delta.com/content/dam/del...nancial/DeltaAirLines_10K_2012.pdf

Delta departures and seats are down yoy -
http://www.aviationplanning.com/DataFlashJuly252013.phtml

Delta also has fewer employees than they did pre NW/DL merger.

And lastly, you know they are culling regional aircraft at rapid pace.

Quoting Shawn Patrick (Reply 97):
Once again, I ask you to get your head out of the textbook and into the real world.

Thank you I do live in the real world, and have had to juggle dollar and cents in this industry for the last 26 years.

[Edited 2014-02-14 18:22:58]
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
nutsaboutplanes
Posts: 545
Joined: Thu Jul 29, 2010 3:37 am

RE: AE/Envoy MEC Reject AIP

Sat Feb 15, 2014 3:02 am

Quoting Shawn Patrick (Reply 97):
Once again, I ask you to get your head out of the textbook and into the real world.

LAXintl is a well respected member of Anet and consistently posts very valid points and insightful posts on the subject matter at hand. It is very easy to identify certain situations like the Delta example that support your argument but you are arguing against long established and proven economic principles. If "Shawn Patrickanomics" prove to be the wave of the future, then I am sure you will be able to write a book and make lots of money....until then, I would suggest you not tell others to get their heads "out of the textbook" and instead get your head in one.

Why cant everyone have an opinion without people taking it personally? Many of us on here have real world experience with aviation finance and operations. The Airline industry is not an enigma....basic economic principles still apply in ALL circumstances.
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