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rotating14
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Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 12:20 am

Hello all.

So as we all know Airbus and Boeing own the upper echelon of the aircraft manufacturing in both NB and WB. What I wanted to bring to discussion and to light is the future lineup for Airbus as the have the A330 NEO that they more than likely will bring to life and kill the A358, the idea to re-engine the A380 to attract more buyers than the Amedos and EK's of the world and lastly the possibility of countering Boeing's 777x with a stretch of the A350 to name it a A____. While all of the above are possible, Airbus doesn't have the time they like to believe they have. Neither does Boeing but the topic today is the Airbus time frame.


I believe that A will follow through with the A330 NEO but what takes priority?? Counter Boeing and re-develop the A351, devote resources to the A380 and re invent it generate more sales or continue to transition current customers to the A330 NEO and focus on an EIS of 2-3 years from now.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 1:08 am

I would guess the "priority" would be the A330, as it is the program most under threat from both within (A350) and without (787).
 
Confuscius
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 1:17 am

Current and Future:

A318
A319
A319CJ
A320
A321
A319 NEO
A320 NEO
A321 NEO
A330-200
A330--200F
A330-300
A330-300 HGW
A330-200 NEO
A330-300 NEO
A330 Regional
A350-800
A350-800 Stretch
A350-900
A350-900 Regional
A350-1000
A350-1100
Mega Twin
A380-800
A380-800 NEO
A380-900
A380F

Did I miss any?



[Edited 2014-02-14 17:24:03]
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Mortyman
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 1:39 am

Quoting Confuscius (Reply 2):
Did I miss any?

A380-1000  
 
Confuscius
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 1:56 am

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 3):
A380-1000

Is that Regular, Regional or Unleaded?  

There's also the A330 and A340 P2F conversion.

[Edited 2014-02-14 17:57:08]
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neutrino
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 4:05 am

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 3):
A380-1000  

A380-SUH    
Potestatem obscuri lateris nescitis
 
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BlueSky1976
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 7:52 am

Future:

A319NEO
A320NEO
A321NEO
A330-200NEO
A330-300NEO
A350-900*
A350-1000
Mega Twin
A380-800NEO.

*) A350-800 will be dropped in favour of A330 re-engine, in my opinion. Remaining A350-800 orders will be converted to either re-engined A330 or larger A350-900.

"Mega Twin" will cover the gap between A350-1000 and A380-800NEO.

A380-800NEO will sell no more than 200 frames, A380-900 will never come to fruition, "Mega Twin" will sell on par with 777-9.
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astuteman
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 10:58 am

Quoting rotating14 (Thread starter):
Airbus doesn't have the time they like to believe they have

What a weird assertion. So how much time do you think they think they have?

There are a lot of variables here....

The first one is that they have declared a wish to reduce the R+D effort.
They don't HAVE to do that, though it is driven by a desire to achieve double-digit operating margins, so there is some pressure.

Secondly, a lot depends on what the programmes actually end up being.

I believe an A330NEO will be a "minimal change" programme, recognising that it will be more akin to the 737MAX than the A320NEO in scope.
They may of course elect to optimise the A350-800, which again, is unlikely to be a massive programme.

I equally believe that any A380 NEO will be a minimum change programme, mainly "just" a re-engine and a more elaborate wing treatment.

Prospective EIS's for these?
2018-2019 for the A330NEO/A350-800 optimised
2020-2021 for the A380NEO.

As for the response to the 777X.
Recognise first that the 777X is a response to the A350, so Airbus aren't dying here in any way.
And of course we all know that the market for larger aircraft is a vanishing item outside of the middle-east, so now that the ME3 have come off the pot, the 777X is a dying programme  

joking apart, the real issue raised here is
"just how much market pressure will Airbus face to challenge the 777-9X" (the 777-8X being already covered off)
And will the market limit the justification to a simple stretch of the A350-1000, or merit a more serious investment?
I don't believe Airbus will move until they know more

Like the two other programmes a simple stretch of the A350-1000 to become an A350-1100 would be a "relatively" simple programme.
Easily doable by 2022-2023 IMO.
Being 2-3 years behind the 777-9 will be a non-issue.
all the recent launches show this.
It's abundantly clear that the moment it is launched it will capture market share

If the demand for these larger aircraft blooms, then they may need to do more than a simple stretch of the A350-1000.
That's more of a problem I guess
On the upside, if that demand does bloom, then sales of the A380NEO should pick up nicely  .

My predictions..

They will do an A330NEO - launch 2014, EIS 2019
They will do an A380NEO - launch 2015, EIS 2021
They will do a simple A350-1100 - launch 2017, EIS 2023

The A330NEO will give them breathing space in the 250-300 seat market.
They will use that time to "optimise" the A350 at bigger size and higher weights, around the A350-1000, during the 2020's (the line-up becoming A359, A3510, A3511)
The A330NEO will ultimately get replaced by an all-new frame - I'd guess after NSA has been executed

Rgds
 
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Mortyman
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 11:17 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 6):
A380-900 will never come to fruition

... and you have come to this conclusion how ? ...
 
mjoelnir
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 11:54 am

Airbus has first to finish the A32Xneo´s and the A350-900 and A350-1000. IMO the A350-800 will come as a simple shrink of the 900 in between.
A A330neo and the A350-800 have nothing to do with each other, same size, different market segment, one will be for short, medium to LH, the other is for LH to ULH.

The A330neo and A380neo will be a given.

I do not believe in a Mega Twin from Airbus.

I think that Airbus could expand the scoop of the A32X line. A new wing for the A321 without killing the old model for range expansion and/or a further stretch. A very economical solution for SH and 250to 300 pax and an economical plane for medium to LH for 180-200 pax.
 
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 12:47 pm

Quoting Confuscius (Reply 2):
A380F
Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 6):
A319NEO
A320NEO
A321NEO
A330-200NEO
A330-300NEO
A350-900*
A350-1000
Mega Twin
A380-800NEO.

Very probable...

Although I don't believe that the A330-300 would get the NEO treatment but that the A332 will to be able to do the thin and hot and high missions. The A332 has a real future as the Boeing lineup doesn't seem to have a product that fills that niche.

Quoting Confuscius (Reply 2):
A318
A319
A319CJ
A320
A321
A319 NEO
A320 NEO
A321 NEO
A330-200
A330--200F
A330-300
A330-300 HGW
A330-200 NEO
A330-300 NEO
A330 Regional
A350-800
A350-800 Stretch
A350-900
A350-900 Regional
A350-1000
A350-1100
Mega Twin
A380-800
A380-800 NEO
A380-900
A380F

Not as likely.

I don't believe that the A380 can be converted into a full freighter version as the upper deck would get in the way of the large freight that could be transported. Also I don't think that such a large aircraft is really going to be demanded by the airlines as it would take a certain number to make it viable as an option for the airlines. Unless the NEO option would make it viable at a lower payload the A380 may be too big in general.
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 12:51 pm

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 6):
*) A350-800 will be dropped in favour of A330 re-engine, in my opinion. Remaining A350-800 orders will be converted to either re-engined A330 or larger A350-900.

As Mortyman asked, how did you arrive to this conclusion? Hawaiian Airlines needs the A358, the A359 is to big and a A330NEO would not have the range.
If its not built by Airbus it must not be good ;-)
 
StTim
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 12:57 pm

I presume if they do the A330 neo then as long as the weight gain is not too large then the range available will increase quite a lot due to the increased engine efficiency and any other aerodynamic improvements made.

That range increase may work for Hawaiian.
 
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 12:58 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 9):
The A330neo and A380neo will be a given.

I do not believe in a Mega Twin from Airbus.

Sorry mate - just can't work out how you arrive at those conclusions?

Only two things are 'certain,' seems to me:-

1. Thanks to Airbus offering no effective opposition, the B787 (which already has over 1,000 firm orders) has established a 'virtual monopoly' in the 'long-range midsize' field. The A359 is 'fighting back' quite well, but Boeing have a secure lead, given that the B789 will be in service some months before the A359?

2. Boeing appear already to have made their decision - that, given ever-increasing engine power, two engines will henceforward be sufficient to allow 400-plus passengers to be safely carried up to 8,000nms.

Not 'certain' so far, but all the signs are that Airbus aren't planning any direct counter to the B777X, but are instead considering some sort of up-graded A380?

Seems to me that that would be a big mistake - looks to me as if 'two engines will be enough' from now on?

Of course you're welcome to disagree - that's the beauty of A.net..........  
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 1:24 pm

Quoting brilondon (Reply 10):
Although I don't believe that the A330-300 would get the NEO treatment

Eh? IF Airbus does an A330neo, you are saying it WON'T bother with the member of the family which has comprehensively outsold it's smaller sibling over the past few years?

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 13):
1. Thanks to Airbus offering no effective opposition, the B787 (which already has over 1,000 firm orders) has established a 'virtual monopoly' in the 'long-range midsize' field. The A359 is 'fighting back' quite well, but Boeing have a secure lead, given that the B789 will be in service some months before the A359?

What is it like? Living in a Boeing fantasy land where Airbus is an utterly ineffective competitor? Must be nice for you.
 
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 2:15 pm

size="2" face="ARIAL, Helvetica, Geneva" color="#9A9DA0">Quoting timboflier215 (Reply 14):
What is it like? Living in a Boeing fantasy land where Airbus is an utterly ineffective competitor? Must be nice for you.

For what it's worth, mate, I don't see it that way.

In this particular midsize sector, Boeing have managed to produce some outstanding designs (in the shape of B787s and B777s). And they're currently reaping the rewards. But there is every prospect that, in a few years' time, Airbus will raise their game, finally get the A350 into service, and regain the initiative?

I do worry about Airbus still talking about the A380 having a future, though. In my (genuinely 'humble' opinion, I'm no expert in the aviation field), now that two engines are enough to fly over 400 passengers over 8,000nms, I see a very restricted future for both the B748 AND the A380?

[Edited 2014-02-15 06:24:31]
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rotating14
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 2:34 pm

Im surprised that nobody has mentioned when A will go clean sheet after the NEO. We all know that Airbus is on record saying that they WILL NOT be developing any new programs but rather capitalize and extending the life of existing programs. As far as the A380 re do goes, they will go ahead with it IF the 779 proves to be more than just a A350 knee jerk response. But then that scenario makes me think if a A380 re do goes forward, does it trump the possibility of A350-1000 stretch or refinement?


Correct me if Im wrong but is this A330 NEO supposed to be the same regional version the Asian market seems to be clamoring over?

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 13):
given that the B789 will be in service some months before the A359?

Based on the flight testing hours, I think that the A359 will beat it to EIS but I not 100% sure.

Quoting CGMAI (Reply 11):
As Mortyman asked, how did you arrive to this conclusion? Hawaiian Airlines needs the A358, the A359 is to big and a A330NEO would not have the range.

That sounds about right but Airbus is not going to build the A358 for a couple of hold outs. If anything 2 things would happen. 1) They hold out until Airbus basically gives them a hefty discount for what ever they offer them or 2) they order more CEO A330's as to not jeopardize their A358 deposits 3) lastly, swallow a hefty portion of pride and give Boeing a call and offer their 767's and cash in exchange for 787's.
 
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 2:37 pm

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 13):
The A359 is 'fighting back' quite well, but Boeing have a secure lead, given that the B789 will be in service some months before the A359?

Ive heard that before, back when the 787-9 was supposed to have been in service for several years before the A350-900.

It didn't exactly turn out bad for Airbus, did it? Only a few months between them rather than a few years...

I remember being ridiculed for saying the 787-9 probably wouldn't see EIS in 2010 as planned.
 
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 2:52 pm

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 6):
"Mega Twin" will cover the gap between A350-1000 and A380-800NEO.

I don't think the market is big enough for a clean sheet design.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 7):
My predictions..

They will do an A330NEO - launch 2014, EIS 2019
They will do an A380NEO - launch 2015, EIS 2021
They will do a simple A350-1100 - launch 2017, EIS 2023

The A330NEO will give them breathing space in the 250-300 seat market.
They will use that time to "optimise" the A350 at bigger size and higher weights, around the A350-1000, during the 2020's (the line-up becoming A359, A3510, A3511)

I agree with this. Plus an A333F ceo / neo if the new-build freighter market picks up.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 9):
I don't believe that the A380 can be converted into a full freighter version as the upper deck would get in the way of the large freight that could be transported. Also I don't think that such a large aircraft is really going to be demanded by the airlines as it would take a certain number to make it viable as an option for the airlines.

Well, the 388F is designed, but shelved. But I think the design work is more likely to see light of day in A388 P2F conversions in 10 years +.
 
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rotating14
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 3:09 pm

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 18):
Well, the 388F is designed, but shelved. But I think the design work is more likely to see light of day in A388 P2F conversions in 10 years +.

THe idea of Airbus making a A380 freighter is probably not going to happen. The A330F will stay in the line up and maybe get a new lease on life with an engine upgrade but nothing more. Boeing has the freighter market all to it self mostly. 747's in the desert, 748's and 777's coming off the line, only customers who are loyal to Airbus will order the A330 but not the A380. Consider that freighters make money in the air not on the ground and if the turnaround is supposed to be quick and fat, it certainly wont be that way with a cargo laden A380. Think how long it takes to unload a fully loaded 748 vs a would be A380?

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 18):
I don't think the market is big enough for a clean sheet design.

Agreed.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 3:41 pm

Quoting CGMAI (Reply 11):
Hawaiian Airlines needs the A358, the A359 is to big and a A330NEO would not have the range.

What mission does HA fly that a 242t MTOW A330-200neo with a design range close to 8000nm cannot handle?



Quoting Nav20 (Reply 13):
Thanks to Airbus offering no effective opposition, the B787 (which already has over 1,000 firm orders) has established a 'virtual monopoly' in the 'long-range midsize' field. The A359 is 'fighting back' quite well, but Boeing have a secure lead, given that the B789 will be in service some months before the A359?

The A350-900 has won plenty of RFPs against the 787-9, including "blue chip" customers like EK, CX, LH and SQ (who rather than take delivery of their 787-9s, decided to send them to their LCC and replace them with A350-900s) and has an almost 3:2 lead in the order book.
 
brindabella
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 3:41 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Thread starter):
Hello all.

So as we all know Airbus and Boeing own the upper echelon of the aircraft manufacturing in both NB and WB. What I wanted to bring to discussion and to light is the future lineup for Airbus as the have the A330 NEO that they more than likely will bring to life and kill the A358, the idea to re-engine the A380 to attract more buyers than the Amedos and EK's of the world and lastly the possibility of countering Boeing's 777x with a stretch of the A350 to name it a A____. While all of the above are possible, Airbus doesn't have the time they like to believe they have. Neither does Boeing but the topic today is the Airbus time frame.


I believe that A will follow through with the A330 NEO but what takes priority?? Counter Boeing and re-develop the A351, devote resources to the A380 and re invent it generate more sales or continue to transition current customers to the A330 NEO and focus on an EIS of 2-3 years from now.

Hi Rotating (don't want to think about that!),
good topic.

When you do your matching topic on Boeing, may I suggest you include the likely response if around, say 1 Sep 2016 it is clear that the GTF is coming up trumps (as Lightsaber seems to have been hinting).

Seems to me that the enforced Boeing response (NSA, quick bloody smart!) would change a lot of other plans for both OEMs(!).


  

cheers Bill

(FWIW, I don't regard your opening remarks as "weird" ... however they are not quite accurate, either. Each of the OEMs is always under extreme time pressure, which is only exacerbated by historic upper management mistakes like Boeing outsourcing to "partners" who (it should have been clear) had nothing like Boeing's own level of (hard-won) expertise. But I digress.
The overriding priority is that each OEM has to get the product right. Period.

Then it just keeps on giving ...
say A300/330; say A320.
say B737; say B777.

etc.

  

Good stuff.
Keep it up.
Bill
Billy
 
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BlueSky1976
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 3:43 pm

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 8):
Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 6):
A380-900 will never come to fruition

... and you have come to this conclusion how ? ...

...by watching the passenger VLA sales in the last 10 years?

A380 is basically an Emirates - exclusive airframe, 747-8i is DOA, save for Lufthansa, Air China and Korean Air...

The largest realistic aircraft the market needs now is between 350 and 400 seats. The time of 500+ seaters will come in about 30 years or so. Runaway launch of the 777X speaks for itself.
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brilondon
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 4:20 pm

Quoting timboflier215 (Reply 14):
Eh? IF Airbus does an A330neo, you are saying it WON'T bother with the member of the family which has comprehensively outsold it's smaller sibling over the past few years?

Well why change for the sake of change? If the current A333 is selling quite well, why not leave it and have the A359 become that replacement? They would have the A332 to fit into the ULH that it could become and be used on hot and high routes with the NEO? If they fragment the market too much there will be a plane for every flight but that is not economical to have.
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mjoelnir
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 4:35 pm

Quoting brilondon (Reply 23):
Well why change for the sake of change? If the current A333 is selling quite well, why not leave it and have the A359 become that replacement? They would have the A332 to fit into the ULH that it could become and be used on hot and high routes with the NEO? If they fragment the market too much there will be a plane for every flight but that is not economical to have.

You either change both or none. The parts we are talking about, engine and perhaps adjustment to the wings are identical for both types.
 
astuteman
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 4:45 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 16):
Im surprised that nobody has mentioned when A will go clean sheet after the NEO.

I'm surprised that you don't read responses to your opening post ...  
Quoting astuteman (Reply 7):
The A330NEO will give them breathing space in the 250-300 seat market.
They will use that time to "optimise" the A350 at bigger size and higher weights, around the A350-1000, during the 2020's (the line-up becoming A359, A3510, A3511)
The A330NEO will ultimately get replaced by an all-new frame - I'd guess after NSA has been executed

At least one of us offered an opinion  

Rgds
 
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 4:51 pm

Quoting brindabella (Reply 21):
FWIW, I don't regard your opening remarks as "weird"

FWIW I had no issue with the OP in general, but I did think it was a bit weird professing to know how much time Airbus like to believe they have..
I think I know how much time they have.
I wouldn't have the first idea how much time THEY like to believe they have  

Rgds
 
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 6:35 pm

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 22):
The largest realistic aircraft the market needs now is between 350 and 400 seats. The time of 500+ seaters will come in about 30 years or so. Runaway launch of the 777X speaks for itself

If air travel is going to keep doubling every 10 years or so, I do not think we need to wait that long as a doubling of traffic is not realistic.
 
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rotating14
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 6:56 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 25):
I'm surprised that you don't read responses to your opening post ...  

Touche. I was however referring to the successor to the A320. I should have been more specific.
 
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 6:59 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 7):
They will do an A330NEO - launch 2014, EIS 2019
They will do an A380NEO - launch 2015, EIS 2021
They will do a simple A350-1100 - launch 2017, EIS 2023

I think you are probably right on. They cannot sit still, but new programs are astronomically expensive, and we A-netters are very fond of tossing them out there like cookies. I think both Airbus and Boeing are saving their big efforts for new narrowbodies, but the technology (specifically composite technology) is not there to give them enough of an advantage over the existing line to make it worthwhile. And I see the A3511 as filling a similar role as the 7810, not matching the range of the 779 but giving operators who want a shorter range aircraft an option that will have better CASM. Of course it is entirely possible that unforeseen changes will throw all of this into a cocked hat.
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astuteman
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 7:26 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 28):
Touche. I was however referring to the successor to the A320. I should have been more specific.

Ah. Good point. I did refer to it, but didn't say when I thought it would be.
For what its worth my money is on mid next decade for the launch of both manufacturer's NSA's. I just don't see it being any sooner than c. 2025

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 29):
And I see the A3511 as filling a similar role as the 7810, not matching the range of the 779 but giving operators who want a shorter range aircraft an option that will have better CASM.

As a "placeholder" I think it works on the basis you describe   

Rgds
 
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 8:07 pm

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 22):
A380 is basically an Emirates - exclusive airframe

Yes, Emirates holds a good portion of the production, however over half of the airframes that has been ordered are non Emirates. I also beleave that we will see new customers for the A380. More and more Travelers will emerge from especially Asia in the coming years / decades and I don't really see the line end in many, many years yet.

When that is said, I don't really think that anyone here on this forum, knows how the future will pan out ...  Wink

[Edited 2014-02-15 12:09:54]
 
iahmark
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 8:39 pm

I think the mega twin is a good idea, either one or both (Airbus or Boeing) could do it as is probably the next step; ...most like it will be a single decker at 11 or 12 abreast (3-5-3 or 3-6-3) multiply that by 35 to 45+ seat rows and you can get 420 to 540+ with plenty lower deck space.

I said single decker because a double decker although more efficient in using the vertical space comes up short in the cargo holds,, i.e A380.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_-Oqf_vOman...Tw/s1600-h/Airbus_P500_concept.JPG

PS: If you go at almost 80 meters in length and manage to put 50 seat rows it could be a 600+ passenger (12 abreast) on a single deck plane…amazing

[Edited 2014-02-15 12:43:21]
 
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SEPilot
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 9:01 pm

Quoting iahmark (Reply 32):
I think the mega twin is a good idea, either one or both (Airbus or Boeing) could do it as is probably the next step;

I do not think either Airbus or Boeing has the appetite to tackle an all-new widebody anytime soon. The next new project for both is likely to be the narrowbody. I do not see a new widebody project for at least 15 years, and probably 20 from either of them, especially if the A330NEO is successful. And if there was such demand for a 600 seat aircraft the A380 would be selling much better than it is.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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rotating14
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sat Feb 15, 2014 9:35 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 33):

Quoting iahmark (Reply 32):
I think the mega twin is a good idea, either one or both (Airbus or Boeing) could do it as is probably the next step;

I do not think either Airbus or Boeing has the appetite to tackle an all-new widebody anytime soon. The next new project for both is likely to be the narrowbody. I do not see a new widebody project for at least 15 years, and probably 20 from either of them, especially if the A330NEO is successful. And if there was such demand for a 600 seat aircraft the A380 would be selling much better than it is.

I too think that B and A won't be trying to work on or bring on a new WB products anytime soon. The whole mega twin idea that's been tossed around really doesn't make sense to me, at least not now. To build this mega twin means to either give the 777x program a real threat but by doing so it threatens the A350 from below and the A380 from the top.

If they were serious about bringing the mega twin to market later on and had to decide which program to shutter as a result, it would be the A380. Not that it's inefficient or ___ but that this hypothetical twin would have to match or be better than what B is offering in the 779x and thus by doing so you encroach on the A380's territory.
 
mayohoo
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sun Feb 16, 2014 3:43 am

A 330 neo is now likely since the 350-800 is being aggressively killed off by Airbus. The line is paid for and the aircraft is good (for now) and can be sold on price and availability. In 5-7 years, if the 787 line ramps up successfully and continues with PIP then the gap begins to widen to the point the 330 neo will not be competitive and availability will be more similar. Presuming oil goes up, the 330 neo market will have to be addressed, possibly by an optimized 350-800 in the 2020s.

The 380 just does not seem to be selling. It seems to be too much risk at too little reward. The current optimal capacity seems to be suming they can finesse the changeover to the 777-9x....

A line up of 330neo (8-11/m) 350-900, 350-1000, and 350-1100 [14-18/m) looks good to me.
 
NAV20
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sun Feb 16, 2014 5:21 am

Quoting Mayohoo (Reply 35):
The 380 just does not seem to be selling. It seems to be too much risk at too little reward.

Arguably it IS selling, Mayohoo - 47 net orders last year. But only from a single customer, Emirates.  

I tend to agree with you and rotating14 above - Airbus should start developing a counter to the B777Xs, even if that eventually puts the A380 out of business. But given that the A380 is their current 'flagship,' that will be a very difficult decision to take..........
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
tim73
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Sun Feb 16, 2014 6:06 am

The current Boeing management is doing a fine job of destroying the company. 2.5 years after EIS still big quality problems with 787 planes. I don't expect any further projects go any better since the oldtimers are all kicked out and the beancounters only hire inexperienced workers on the cheap in US southern states.

All Airbus has to do, is to keep the quality up and wait 5-6 years and Boeing will be a crisis company. When the management starts treating workers as garbage the output will be garbage. The "I don't care and the company is not paying enough to me to care"-work culture is already spreading inside Boeing.

[Edited 2014-02-15 22:08:11]
 
SchorschNG
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:53 am

How likely is a "stretch" (actually, it actually is a new fuselage using the A320 cross section) of the A321 with a new wing that is ~50% larger? Such aircraft could fill a void in the product line-up, and be very competitive on medium range range routes up to 4500nm with limited demand. However, it wouldn't be bought by the ME3.
From a structural standpoint, passengers are the worst possible payload. [Michael Chun-Yung Niu]
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Mon Feb 17, 2014 11:06 am

The future line-up should look as follows:

> A320neo replacement (EIS 2027 - 2030)
> A322 / 757 replacement (EIS 2025)
> A330-200neo (EIS 2019)
> A330-300neo (EIS 2018)
> A350-900 (EIS 2014)
> A350-1000 (EIS 2017)
> A350-1100 (EIS 2023)
> A380neo (EIS 2020/21)

Cargo and ULH derivatives not included.

Quoting SchorschNG (Reply 38):
How likely is a "stretch" (actually, it actually is a new fuselage using the A320 cross section) of the A321 with a new wing that is ~50% larger?

I expect it to happen when Boeing launches the 757 successor. An A321 stretch with larger wings and a new engine.

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 16):
Im surprised that nobody has mentioned when A will go clean sheet after the NEO. We all know that Airbus is on record saying that they WILL NOT be developing any new programs but rather capitalize and extending the life of existing programs.

No clean-sheet programs within in the next 10 years he said. The A320neo replacement is more an 2027 - 2030 project, which is at least 13 years away.

[Edited 2014-02-17 03:20:47]
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
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EPA001
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Mon Feb 17, 2014 11:26 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 39):
The future line-up should look as follows:

> A320neo replacement (EIS 2027 - 2030)
> A322 / 757 replacement (EIS 2025)
> A330-200neo (EIS 2019)
> A330-300neo (EIS 2018)
> A350-900 (EIS 2014)
> A350-1000 (EIS 2017)
> A350-1100 (EIS 2023)
> A380neo (EIS 2020/21)

I could live with that.   But on a serous note, this looks to be the most realistic and best line-up they could come up with. And it will make sure that Airbus will at least keep their market share of 50%, as they have been enjoying in the most of the past 10 years, also in the long run.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 30):
For what its worth my money is on mid next decade for the launch of both manufacturer's NSA's. I just don't see it being any sooner than c. 2025

Imho it will be closer to 2030 than closer to 2025.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 7):
The A330NEO will give them breathing space in the 250-300 seat market.
They will use that time to "optimise" the A350 at bigger size and higher weights, around the A350-1000, during the 2020's (the line-up becoming A359, A3510, A3511)

The A330NEO will ultimately get replaced by an all-new frame - I'd guess after NSA has been executed

Yes, I fully agree with that. And all these renewed versions will keep the R&D at Airbus "loaded enough" for most critical engineers to stay in the loop. So that new programs, which will follow after some of these programs have grown older, can be started with a very strong engineering base to build on.  . It should not be forgotten how important such an engineering base is to a technical company running on the forefront of expensive and huge technologically based programs.
 
EnviableOne
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Mon Feb 17, 2014 2:39 pm

Is there a possibility of dropping the 388neo and going direct to a 389 with the new engines?

if A are going to use the same engine on a 330neo, surely they would have the power with two more of them to lift the stretched 900, also it would allow them to re-design the cargo space to make more availability, and it would probably make a 380F more cost effective based on the larger model.
A wise man speaks because has something to say, a fool speaks because he has to say something - Plato
 
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EPA001
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Mon Feb 17, 2014 4:36 pm

Quoting EnviableOne (Reply 41):
Is there a possibility of dropping the 388neo and going direct to a 389 with the new engines?

Technically that possibility exists. But if the business case will be there compared to the A388 which still flies around at most airlines with very spacious interior configurations remains to be seen. But I am sure Airbus is weighing all their options and will come to the correct decision in time.

I would expect an A388-neo first. And maybe close to 2030 an A389 with even much newer engines. The program will run at least 30 years, probably more. It is only in its 7th year of operational flying with customers. No need to rush things where there is no real pressure to be in a hurry. Developments in aviation sometime go fast, but not that fast.  .
 
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Mortyman
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Mon Feb 17, 2014 5:00 pm

Quoting Confuscius (Reply 4):
Quoting Mortyman (Reply 3):A380-1000
Is that Regular, Regional or Unleaded?

The A380-1000 is the one With a roof that opens up and a A320 V/STOL taking off in mid air ...  
Quoting brilondon (Reply 10):
I don't believe that the A380 can be converted into a full freighter version as the upper deck would get in the way of the large freight that could be transported.

I'm sure Airbus has thought about various solutions and ways to solve this. Would be a bit silly to offer a 380 F otherwise. Have a little faith ...
 
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seahawk
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Mon Feb 17, 2014 5:16 pm

I would say there are obvious solutions:

A350-1100
A380NEO

likely solutions

A330NEO

and possible solutions

A322NEO

The next big project will be the A320 series replacement, which they will try to to as late as possible.
 
packsonflight
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Mon Feb 17, 2014 5:41 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 44):
The next big project will be the A320 series replacement, which they will try to to as late as possible.

A new wing for the 321 based on the 350 wing should be pretty straight forward, sort of when Boeing dispatched the 777 wing team to redesign the 737 wing calling it NG

By doing that Airbus could delay all new narrow body platform for some years and force Boeing hand to go first, which would be hugely beneficial

On top of that PW seems to be hellbent on regaining it position as a number one engine manufacturer back in the days when JT8D ruled, so possibly Airbus can offload some of the design work of the new wing to PW in return for exclusivity on the engine.
 
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Devilfish
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RE: Airbus Future Line Up

Mon Feb 17, 2014 6:42 pm

Quoting Confuscius (Reply 2):
Did I miss any?

An optimized, sharkleted, GTF-powered CFRP A318Lite to mix it up with the Bombardier CSeries, Embraer E2s, ARJs, MRJs and SSJs at the low end.....

View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Lars Liedtke


.....but which would allow the launch of the ATR-92 ...  ...

http://www.aviationweek.com/media/im...ion/Airframes/ATR/ATR92Concept.jpg

Might finally give Airbus and P&W a winning combination    !


Quoting neutrino (Reply 5):
A380-SUH

Udvar Hazy Special?  



Would the upper deck extend over the cockpit and tailplanes if they stretched it?  stretch 


[Edited 2014-02-17 11:43:55]
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