RUMOR: Turkish Airlines To Wet-lease A380s

kl911 · Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:29 pm

Quoting tozbek (Reply 148):
Qantas offered 4 A380's to Turkish Airlines:http://kokpit.aero/turkish-a380-wet-lease

Which is so logic. QF is basically quiting the Kangaroo route, something most carriers, and lately VS, found out to be too expensive too operate.
QF can feed EK and vs in DXB, but then wont need a few A380's anymore.. Makes perfect sense that QF is the supplier of the 4 planes.

Stitch · Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:38 pm

So is this wet lease still supposed to be happening? I ask because the use of the past tense word "offered" implies to me QF's offer was not accepted by TK.

RickNRoll · Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:44 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 141):

The QF problems are not sure to the A380. If you want to blame a member of the fleet, blame the late 787. QANTAS is in slash and burn mode at the moment.

kl911 · Sat Feb 22, 2014 12:21 am

If,and If it is a wet lease, it normally means temporary. If it was strategic TK would buy them and train their own crew,
So how long would this lease be for, and if for a short period, what would happen after?

Stitch · Sat Feb 22, 2014 12:24 am

Quoting kl911 (Reply 153):
So how long would this lease be for, and if for a short period, what would happen after?

It sounds like they just want them during the summer high-season.

So that would be winter in Australia, but I hear that traffic is still strong during those months and the A380s could still find use.

SEPilot · Sat Feb 22, 2014 12:29 am

Quoting kl911 (Reply 153):
If,and If it is a wet lease, it normally means temporary. If it was strategic TK would buy them and train their own crew,
So how long would this lease be for, and if for a short period, what would happen after?

My take is that TK is considering the A380, but not at all sure they want to commit to it. QF is desperate, and willing to do anything to raise immediate cash. So what happens after the summer is probably not even a consideration at this point.

Stitch · Sat Feb 22, 2014 1:59 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 155):
QF is desperate, and willing to do anything to raise immediate cash.

If QF wet-leases the planes, at best they can maybe get $1.5 to $2 million a month for them depending on how badly TK needs lift.

How much revenue does each QF flight generate? I have to believe it's somewhere between $500,000 and $1 million. So even factoring in the costs of operating the flight, I have to believe QF would make more revenue flying the planes over the summer than from leasing them out.

It's why TK would be willing to pay QF - they'll make far more money operating the flights than they will pay in lease rates to QF.

tortugamon · Sat Feb 22, 2014 2:16 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 156):
So even factoring in the costs of operating the flight, I have to believe QF would make more revenue flying the planes over the summer than from leasing them out.

So if this news is correct, it begs the question why did they offer them to TK?

tortugamon

Stitch · Sat Feb 22, 2014 2:30 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 157):
So if this news is correct, it begs the question why did they offer them to TK?

That I do not know.

It does not make sense to me on a short-term basis.

It does kind of make sense to me on a long-term basis if QF wanted to divest themselves of the frames, especially if QF agreed to train TK flight crews to take over, but such a scenario runs against the opinion of many of our Australian members and would likely require QF to drop some current A380 services.

NAV20 · Sat Feb 22, 2014 4:20 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 155):
My take is that TK is considering the A380, but not at all sure they want to commit to it.

'Reading around,' I'm pretty sure that that's the situation. With both the B787 and the B777, TK appear to have done that - wet-leased aeroplanes of each type, thoroughly checked out market potential, aircraft performance, possible routes etc., and only then ordered their own metal.

My guess is that they are considering eventually setting up routes to China?

PS Huh! - here's a press story confirming that..........

http://www.arabianaerospace.aero/tur...ng-out-a380s-for-china-routes.html

[Edited 2014-02-21 20:36:23]

QF744ER · Sat Feb 22, 2014 5:49 am

Today's front page of the West Australian newspaper has an big large about QF's much discussed financial difficulties.

It goes on to say about 3000 staff cuts and 4 A380's being leased to Turkish Airlines when alledgedly contacted for comment 'rufused to deny' the allegations.

Unless this well know Australian aviation jurno gets his info off the net it appears that this rumour might very well be coming to fruition.

It then begs the question as to which A380 QF would lease out as some are early builds although all are believed to of undergone the wing rib modification in Manila.

RyanairGuru · Sat Feb 22, 2014 6:34 am

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 138):
government will change the law to allow a takeover

The government wants to change the law right now, but can't because it won't get through the Senate.

Quoting aryonoco (Reply 139):
The A380s are one of the few parts of QF that aren't the problem

Quoting QF744ER (Reply 160):
when alledgedly contacted for comment 'rufused to deny' the allegations.

I guess we are reading a different newspaper ... my interpretation was very different so I went and fetched it and have it next to me now.

The quote is "move to cut four aircraft from the airline's flagship A380 felet and least them to Turkish Airlines, as well as an end to flights between Dubai and London. The airline said both rumours are incorrect".

So QF denied it (along with chopping DXB-LHR).

The language used is significant here. With everything else (e.g. job losses etc) QF are being very coy and adopting a neither confirm nor deny approach prior to the Feb 27 announcement. The fact that they are so (comparatively) blunt about these two points means that I'm sure QF is NOT the source.

N14AZ · Sat Feb 22, 2014 7:57 am

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 159):

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 159):

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 155):
My take is that TK is considering the A380, but not at all sure they want to commit to it.

'Reading around,' I'm pretty sure that that's the situation. With both the B787 and the B777, TK appear to have done that - wet-leased aeroplanes of each type, thoroughly checked out market potential, aircraft performance, possible routes etc., and only then ordered their own metal.

What you wrote is correct for the 777 but not for the 787.

airbazar · Sat Feb 22, 2014 1:52 pm

Quoting kl911 (Reply 153):
If,and If it is a wet lease, it normally means temporary. If it was strategic TK would buy them and train their own crew,
So how long would this lease be for, and if for a short period, what would happen after?

It's a cheap way to try out the A380 before committing to what is likely a risky airplane acquisition for TK. Besides, with some uncertainty about the new IST airport, they can't really go out an order A380's yet.

Stitch · Sat Feb 22, 2014 5:11 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 163):
It's a cheap way to try out the A380 before committing to what is likely a risky airplane acquisition for TK.

Does anyone remember how long TK's original wet-lease of the 777-300ERs was? It sounds like their subsequent dry lease was for years to serve as interim lift until their own new-build 777-300ERs arrived from Boeing.

I would think that only operating an A380 for a few months - especially their highest traffic months - would not give them a really accurate feel for how the plane would work for them. I would think they would want the planes for a full year or more. And from what I am hearing from our Australian members, it sounds like QF is not ready to halve their operational A380 fleet for years.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 163):
Besides, with some uncertainty about the new IST airport, they can't really go out an order A380's yet.

I have to believe that Airbus would send MSN001 or MSN002 down to IST to run it around the place so TK can get a feel for how it handles there.

Steelyman · Sat Feb 22, 2014 6:53 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 164):
Does anyone remember how long TK's original wet-lease of the 777-300ERs was? It sounds like their subsequent dry lease was for years to serve as interim lift until their own new-build 777-300ERs arrived from Boeing.

I believe it was 6month wet-lease and then 2 years dry lease approximately

bobdino · Sat Feb 22, 2014 6:59 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 141):
Whether this is because they are unhappy with the A380's or it is an act of financial desperation is not certain, and probably unknowable by outsiders at this point.

This is the only part of your post I might take issue with. It's looking more and more certain that Qantas are in dire financial straits. They could be totally happy with the A380 and still in dire enough financial straits that they have to offer wet-leased A380s to TK because they could make (say) a 10% better return.

Stitch · Sat Feb 22, 2014 7:03 pm

Quoting bobdino (Reply 166):
They could be totally happy with the A380 and still in dire enough financial straits that they have to offer wet-leased A380s to TK because they could make (say) a 10% better return.

Even if the load factor across the fleet was 50% year-round - and we know it certainly is not that thanks to posts by a number of people - I cannot see how QF would make more money leasing the planes for even $2 million a month than by continuing to operate them in revenue service.

tortugamon · Sat Feb 22, 2014 7:28 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 158):
That I do not know.
It does not make sense to me on a short-term basis.

If this rumor is true...I can think of no other explanation other than QF will be dropping A380 routes or at least heavily looking into it and that the lease period is longer than just the summer. I really haven't seen that short-term lease characteristic confirmed anywhere. Alas, if TK balks then we may never know.

Dropping SAA agreement and possibly dropping the JNB route and selling the 747s sounds like a desperate way to generate cash especially because the way I see it they have $6 Billion in aircraft that they could sell and lease back if they were that desperate. Don't they have idle 747s that they can get fire sale prices for? Also, can't they sell their terminal lease in SYD?

All of this news seems contradictory to me.

tortugamon

Stitch · Sat Feb 22, 2014 8:22 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 168):
If this rumor is true...I can think of no other explanation other than QF will be dropping A380 routes or at least heavily looking into it and that the lease period is longer than just the summer.

That would leave them with 8 frames. Is 8 enough to handle their services to DXB and LAX from SYD/MEL? And would it also allow them to continue DXB-LHR, or would that route need to be scrapped, as rumors say may happen?

[Edited 2014-02-22 13:16:56]

tortugamon · Sat Feb 22, 2014 9:20 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 169):
And if QF is doing this to save cash, such a scenario I would think would include cancellation (or "extended deferral") of their remaining 8 A380s on order, as well.

They have already done it once.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 169):
how does this affect their 787 options?

I think Boeing would like to see them not be able to exercise their options but I think they will exercise some. If they don't then I think QF's long term business case is in tatters.

tortugamon

behramjee · Sat Feb 22, 2014 9:24 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 169):
That would leave them with 8 frames. Is 8 enough to handle their services to DXB and LAX from SYD/MEL? And would it also allow them to continue DXB-LHR, or would that route need to be scrapped, as rumors say may happen?

For daily MEL-DXB + daily SYD-DXB, QF needs 5 A380 frames to operate the route minimum combined.

NAV20 · Sun Feb 23, 2014 4:58 am

Does begin to look as if Qantas could easily 'spare' four A380s? And that the initial 'wet-leases' could be extended into purchases by Turkish Airlines, or (arguably more likely these days) full 'sale and leaseback' deals, funded by Amadeo or some similar firm?

That would likely solve Qantas' cash flow problems for this year at least?

ZK-NBT · Sun Feb 23, 2014 5:24 am

I can't see it being QF if this rumour is still alive. Some say they will park all remaining non re furbished 744s this year which they are due to anyway leaving the 9 refurbished aircraft plus the 12 A380's as their Long haul fleet.

Should they reduce or drop LHR Id think they will move the A380's to the second SYD-LAX or SYD-DFW service while the 744 fleet will be used to increase SCL or DFW or keep NRT as a 744 once the older aircraft are retired.

I'll stick by TG if its at all true.

RyanairGuru · Sun Feb 23, 2014 11:23 am

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 172):
Does begin to look as if Qantas could easily 'spare' four A380s?

Is that a question or a statement? I honestly can't tell either way. If it is a statement then I disagree (at least until Thursday) as there is currently nothing (other than conjecture) to suggest that any current A380 routes will be downgauged or cut.

Seriously, given that QF have said it isn't them and they aren't planning on cutting LHR then I don't see how people continue to think that its QF. Worse case scenario is that QF9/10 gets truncated and HKG reverts to 747. That saves 2 frames. They still need 10 to cover SYDLAX, MELLAX, SYDLHR and MELDXB with an operation spare, so even in hypothetical scenario they could only lease out two.

airbazar · Sun Feb 23, 2014 1:06 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 164):
I have to believe that Airbus would send MSN001 or MSN002 down to IST to run it around the place so TK can get a feel for how it handles there.

I wasn't talking about how IST handles one or two A380s. I was hinting at how it handles multiple A380's (or 748i's) at the same time. Imagine TK ordering 10 or 12 VLA's and the new IST being delayed and now they have all of these VLA's and a home base that potentially can't handle them all, including visiting VLA's.

NAV20 · Sun Feb 23, 2014 1:28 pm

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 174):
Quoting Nav20 (Reply 172):Does begin to look as if Qantas could easily 'spare' four A380s?
Is that a question or a statement? I honestly can't tell either way.

'Good fun' debate, RyanairGuru.

It's actually neither. It's just my opinion?

bunumuring · Sun Feb 23, 2014 2:06 pm

My info is that QF is dropping Narita with JQ taking it over ... And Johannesburg going ... So spare 747s shouldn't be a problem, thus allowing the TK leases ...
6000 jobs to go, not 3000...
Looks like February 27 will be a bloodbath!
Sadly.
Bunumuring.

tortugamon · Sun Feb 23, 2014 3:05 pm

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 177):
So spare 747s shouldn't be a problem, thus allowing the TK leases ...

Does the EK agreement mandate use of A380s on the DXB route? Do we think 747s will replace them on the LAX route instead? Need to find a home for the A380s first of course.

tortugamon

flylonghaul · Sun Feb 23, 2014 4:52 pm

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 177):

Are you able to share a source for this info?
Not denying the possibility, just curious.

aryonoco · Sun Feb 23, 2014 5:07 pm

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 176):
It's just my opinion?

Do you regularly finish your opinion statements with a question mark?

jumpjets · Sun Feb 23, 2014 6:09 pm

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 177):
And Johannesburg going

Is QF dropping JNB or simply its code share with SAA now that they are teaming up with VA?

Stitch · Sun Feb 23, 2014 6:16 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 178):
Does the EK agreement mandate use of A380s on the DXB route?

I want to believe I have read here that it does.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 178):
Do we think 747s will replace them on the LAX route instead?

I would expect they would not want to downgauge to a 747-400 on LAX missions as UA's 747-400s have First Class and a better Business Class hard product. Though that might not be critical to OneWorld and QF frequent-flyers...

Quoting jumpjets (Reply 181):
Is QF dropping JNB or simply its code share with SAA now that they are teaming up with VA?

Per the posts I have read, QF will stop serving JNB on their own metal and also end their codeshare with South African Airways. Service to South Africa from Australia for QF passengers will be on QF metal to DXB and then Emirates metal from DXB (so the time and distance increase significantly).

[Edited 2014-02-23 10:24:05]

bunumuring · Sun Feb 23, 2014 7:44 pm

Quoting flylonghaul (Reply 179):

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 177):

Are you able to share a source for this info?
Not denying the possibility, just curious.

Hello mate,
I have heard this from two independent separate sources, both of whom work in the airline industry who I know through my planespotting connections. I'm not claiming it as 'gospel', just rumours that I have heard. They could be wrong of course, and I certainly hope they are! I certainly hope the 6000 figure is wrong. I believe (from media sources) that the number will be 3000 or close to it, which is still awful.
I know first hand how much stress this uncertainty is causing the QF staff I know.
Here's hoping!
Bunumuring.

flylonghaul · Mon Feb 24, 2014 12:14 am

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 183):

Fair enough.
As I've recently left Australia I haven't had much contact with the spotters that work for QF so was curious.
The best information seems to get around when spotters get together

I do thoroughly hope that the numbers aren't as bad as we are all speculating!

EnviableOne · Mon Feb 24, 2014 11:54 am

If TK are having 4 frames from QF it would probably be a cash flow issue, they would get the lease payed up front to have the cash on hand to cover current expenses (from the looks of things, severance packages etc.)

KarelXWB · Mon Feb 24, 2014 12:05 pm

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 172):
That would likely solve Qantas' cash flow problems for this year at least?

Most likely not. Reading the CAPA article below, Qantas has much more problems than just a few A380s:

http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...nership-dogma-defeats-logic-154426

Stitch · Mon Feb 24, 2014 4:10 pm

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 172):
That would likely solve Qantas' cash flow problems for this year at least?

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 186):
Most likely not. Reading the CAPA article below, Qantas has much more problems than just a few A380s:

On the flip side, that article's analysis of the current situation QF faces in regards to one-stop services could support QF ending their own A380 metal services to/from DXB and beyond in favor of letting EK handle it, which would eliminate the need for 4 of their 12 A380s that could then be leased to TK.

The remaining 8 frames could continue serving North and South America (allowing additional 747-400 retirements) and would allow QF to cancel the remainder of their A380 order, conserving cash as they did when they cancelled their 787 order (as with the 787 order, QF could always add some A380 options should future conditions warrant a fleet increase).

[Edited 2014-02-24 08:12:24]

KarelXWB · Mon Feb 24, 2014 4:17 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 187):
On the flip side, that article's analysis of the current situation QF faces in regards to one-stop services could support QF ending their own A380 metal services to/from DXB and beyond in favor of letting EK handle it, which would eliminate the need for 4 of their 12 A380s that could then be leased to TK.

That may be true but I still don't see how this would resolve Qantas' cash flow problems. The lease of four A380s would bring in around $4 million per month, way too less to pay all the bills.

Stitch · Mon Feb 24, 2014 4:42 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 188):
That may be true but I still don't see how this would resolve Qantas' cash flow problems. The lease of four A380s would bring in around $4 million per month, way too less to pay all the bills.

True, but they would save on the costs of operating the SYD/MEL-DXB and DXB-LHR services by handing those off to EK. That would save a fair bit of cash each month which would add up over time as this would be a long-term change, not just one over the summer (assuming TK was interested in a long-term lease). There would also be a fair bit of lost revenue, of course, and that would need to be addressed within the QF/EK alliance.

[Edited 2014-02-24 09:01:43]

EnviableOne · Mon Feb 24, 2014 4:57 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 188):
That may be true but I still don't see how this would resolve Qantas' cash flow problems. The lease of four A380s would bring in around $4 million per month, way too less to pay all the bills.

$4 milllion * 6-12 months = 24-48 million, if you get this upfront, in one payment, its enough cash to pay for the restructuring effort, especially if you can shift the schedules about, increase utilisation on the existing fleet and still operate the premium services that make the money.

N14AZ · Mon Feb 24, 2014 8:03 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):

I'd like to see them maneuver those birds around IST. And that's not a crack at the A380, it's a crack at IST.

Seriously, I assume they'll use remote stands.

That's actually an interesting question. Last Friday, I was in IST. When our A 321 was pushed back from the gate it blocked five aircrafts: at least two which had just landed and three which had been pushed back from their gates before our Airbus was pushed back.

Then again, I was very suprised that they started even with another corrosion corner in addition to that large area where all the ex-BEA A 300's have been stored...

So IF this rumour turns out to be true, I wonder where they will put these A 380's.

MeCe · Mon Feb 24, 2014 9:26 pm

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 191):
So IF this rumour turns out to be true, I wonder where they will put these A 380's.

There is only one gate has dual brigdes in Istanbul, 226. 208 has eough space for 380 but only one bridge and much smaller boarding area. If you add additional security screening process for usa flights 208 can be used but almast all flghts will delay.

Two remote spots capable of 777 can accept also 380 with some adjustment. But dont worry, there is a construction for adding 50 remote parking spots, it will be ready ( or hope for to be ready) for summer season. Another plan is demolish TK's cargo building and build a terminal extension which will be 5 widebody plane capable. Replacement cargo building finished more than halfway...

My another concern is QF seat layout. They have 14 closed first class suits. If TK will not lauch f/c again this area can not be used effectively. There are someoptions; TK will go with f/c - they have also f/c cabin at wet leased 9W 777- or re configure 380. Second one is less possible, TK never reconfigure leased planes. Third one is use as is like 9W 777 now.No option is perfect, lets wait and see how rumors will shape

flylonghaul · Mon Feb 24, 2014 11:05 pm

QF A380s also have Y+
Aren't TK currently in the process of getting rid of their Y+ cabins?

N14AZ · Tue Feb 25, 2014 6:33 am

@ MeCe, reply # 192: thanks for your feedback, highly appreciated. Gate 208 is the one TK uses for the TK20 flight to Beijin (B 773). I often used it and when wondering which gate they might use for A 380-flights, gate 208 came to my mind.

Also good to know that there is still potential in IST for improvement, as you described.

frigatebird · Tue Feb 25, 2014 7:42 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 187):
The remaining 8 frames could continue serving North and South America (allowing additional 747-400 retirements) and would allow QF to cancel the remainder of their A380 order, conserving cash as they did when they cancelled their 787 order

But can QF really cancel their remaining A380s without penalty and get their down payment back like they did with their 787-9 order? Boeing had this possibility in their 787 contract, as QF demanded guarantees the 787s would be delivered in time. But I heard rumors TG and MH wanted to bail out of their A380 contracts, swapping them for other models but Airbus not allowing them. Had to do with the compensation they accepted for late delivery, the flip side was that they forfeited the right to cancel without penalty.

I must admit these are all rumors, as I have no insights in contracts of course. Just things I picked up from the net.

KarelXWB · Tue Feb 25, 2014 8:31 am

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 195):
But can QF really cancel their remaining A380s without penalty and get their down payment back like they did with their 787-9 order?

They can't. Deposits will be lost or sometimes can be transferred to another aircraft type.

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 195):
But I heard rumors TG and MH wanted to bail out of their A380 contracts, swapping them for other models but Airbus not allowing them.

It remains a rumor.

MAS originally ordered the A380 to replace 747 metal, I have a hard time believing these rumors.

[Edited 2014-02-25 00:34:31]

MeCe · Tue Feb 25, 2014 8:51 am

Quoting flylonghaul (Reply 193):
QF A380s also have Y+
Aren't TK currently in the process of getting rid of their Y+ cabins?

QF's Y+ is much reasoable than TK's comfort class. We discussed many times here; comfort class takes huge amount of cabin space, seat count is too much and seats are huge. There is no way to make money at this conditions. Bean counters will be more happy with Y+

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 194):
Also good to know that there is still potential in IST for improvement, as you described.

Yes there is euogh room for many parking spots even remote gates. I dont know how they built additional apron to military area but it is huge; even a remote terminal can be built there.

bennett123 · Tue Feb 25, 2014 9:26 am

N14AZ

I assume you mean A300 TC-OYC, TC-OIM and TC-COA.

I had not realised that they were still sitting around. Perhaps these will be scrapped to make room.

Their value after being left for nearly 10 years must be very low.

The few remaining A300 operators can get spares elsewhere, as other A300's have been stored in the desert or have been retired more recently, e.g. ZB.

KarelXWB · Tue Feb 25, 2014 9:50 am

If Qantas accelerate 747 retirement, they might put the A380s on other routes.

Quote:
Qantas is tipped to accelerate the retirement of its older planes as part of $2 billion in cost cuts expected to touch every area of the company.

Pilots believe the airline will bring forward the retirement of its fleet of ageing Boeing 767s and some of its older Boeing 747 jumbo jets as part of the cost-cutting measures.

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