Hello Everyone. Here we are and yet another month.


One of the highlight from last month was Sun Express order for 40 737NG and MAX aircraft.



I find it interesting how LH-TK have been able to maintain the Sun Express partnership all these years especially now that Sun Express continues to grow in Germany and is truly stealing passengers from LH as it grows routes beyond its traditional Germany-Turkey focus. Even in Germany-Turkey markets XQ has stronger market share than LH in some city pairs.

Now with TK, PC and XQ having new generation planes on order, will we see anything similar from Atlasjet or Onur Air? Speaking about Onur I guess their ownership is in question with old owner back in the picture as planned buyers appear to have fallen through.


Looking ahead in 2014 and potential new TK markets, at the just posted investors update TK provided the below table with list of "planned" destinations (in red)



Some other tidbits out of the investors update:
o Turkish market accounted for 104mil travelers in 2013. Forecast to grow to 153mil by 2017. Domestic demand has been growing at 15% since 2007 and Intl demand 11%
o In 2013 24% of passengers made Intl-Intl connects on TK up from 23% in 2012. So 76% of business still remains Turkey O&D.
o Premium class clients accounted for 5% of passengers in 2013, but 20% of revenues.

They also published a fleet forecast as well.



While reading the update, I also impressed to read about all the 3rd party work being done by the various MRO affiliates of TK. For example at HABOM hangars at SAW, 92% of the revenue comes from 3rd party airlines, at the TK-Goodrich venture 64% is from other airlines, while TK Technic IST base earns 24% of its revenue from other outside sales.


Of course one of the bigger topics on A.net in February was the rumors about A380 leases at TK.
Personally I have stayed quiet on the topic as I view the talk as hot air and not serious. Sure TK looks at lots of things, including aircraft, but a company might analyze 20 potential scenarios of which none become reality at the end. Also I know the reality that TK management likes to talk, and unfortunately the media (and A.net) members take any comments they make as gospel.

On a personal note, I am aware VLA analysis done at TK in recent years, and yes there could indeed be a place for such an aircraft at TK, but its a niche need, and one that is only useful in a small subset of markets and times. But its not the most compelling business case in the grand scale of things. So yes I think TK will have a VLA one day, but its still a very costly proposition and a fleet of 330, 777s etc are much much more flexible and provide much more compelling use case at this time.


So lets get on with the discussions and see what transpires in March.

LHE being upgauged from 738 to A332 from 24/6/14

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):

Adios to hot and dry 13/14 winter.

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter): They also published a fleet forecast as well.

Looks like TK plans its NB fleet based on B738 and A321. All other types are slowly phased out (except B739 for niche markets).

So TK will have mainly 4 types: A333 - B77W as WB and A321 - B738 as NB.

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter): Looking ahead in 2014 and potential new TK markets, at the just posted investors update TK provided the below table with list of "planned" destinations (in red)

Some of the destinations in red have already been announced. The latest ones are Oran, Constantine, Tlemcen and Batna in Algeria:

http://airlineroute.net/2014/02/28/tk-algeria-may14/

as well as Pisa in Italy

http://airlineroute.net/2014/02/28/tk-psa-s14/

For the Americas, this table should put to rest the stubborn persistence of the MIA fan club on this site that a return of TK to Miami is just around the corner. It seems that we are looking at San Francisco and Atlanta next and what I presume to be a combined Mexico-Havana and Caracas-Bogota flight further south.

looking at fleet plan:
A 332 ,16 means 8 addition, if it is means 8 announed lease (5 aercap and 3 jet birds) , 2 remaining GF birds will not be taken.
A333, Airbus will deliver 5 frames in 2014, it should be 17 or 1 lease,
It seems that Jet 777s will be returned this year
i think smaller sizes will syat at fleet but due ro expiring lease they are not included, normal tendency is to extent leases
both of A 319 and 320 have different missions

I agree with Laxint, rather than VLA , smaller types of WB fits better for TK. frequency is very important at TK s business model. In addition to 777/332/333 some more 332 HGW will fits as well. some 788 would be a perfect fit for adding destination in US while range is needed but 77w is too big
maybe some 77L for SYD or 789 ( i assume it has enough leg)

Looking forward to the first flight of the new service of TK to my local/home airport RTM on next tuesday.
This first flight will will probably be performed by an A321. and there are more flights with this type scheduled for april and May. So i seems there is enough demand for this new service.

Thanks for a great thread starter with the two images (Destinations and Fleet Plan) LAX ... gives a lot of info at just one glance and helps look at the big picture before posting stuff.

TK is surely on fire ... can't wait for the new 77Ws and 333s coming in. But the new IST airport is the big priority at this moment - the future this airport will will be a principal constraint of TK's explosive growth. Meanwhile, streamlining the fleet composition to 4 types is a very good move towards better efficiency and maintenance.

Quoting TK105 (Reply 2): So TK will have mainly 4 types: A333 - B77W as WB and A321 - B738 as NB.

Question to the thread is:
1. W hat would be the most optimum conditions and projects in the interim 5 years (until the new airport is online) that would make the maximization of capacity at IST and also the most aggressive growth of TK possible.
2. New parking positions at IST is under construction as I understand. What about new terminal gates in the place of the cargo area east of the current terminal? How long would it take to construct 10-12 gates there?
3. New cargo area to the west of the parallel runways? Or moving dedicated cargo operations to SAW?

Meanwhile, can't wait to see a TK bird in BOS ... and in Central / South America!

Quoting ASA (Reply 7): Question to the thread is: 1. W hat would be the most optimum conditions and projects in the interim 5 years (until the new airport is online) that would make the maximization of capacity at IST and also the most aggressive growth of TK possible. 2. New parking positions at IST is under construction as I understand. What about new terminal gates in the place of the cargo area east of the current terminal? How long would it take to construct 10-12 gates there? 3. New cargo area to the west of the parallel runways? Or moving dedicated cargo operations to SAW?

We need to see start of new airport construction. There are some legal and financial issues about this; if they can not overcome with these problems current expansion work may be turn a much bigger investment even a remote terminal to military area. Actually I make same rough measuremets via google maps; this area can accomodate same size of current international terminal and decent apron space; but does it worth spend billions while a brand new airport construction in the horizon or if it build does runway capacity can handle this expansion ?

New terminal gates will be widebody capable, 5 of gates will be build. My guess it will take less than a year even 6 -8 months.

About VLA, I know TK management likes to talk about everything but delaying new airport limits additional frequencies and pushes bigger aircraft. If you remember, there were a different ideas coming Mr Kotil and Mr. Topcu about VLA; but Mr Topcu changed his words and now stated need of VLA. I guess they will be happy if they can lease 380 like they made 777; try and buy later.

Here is very basic animation how can be built additional terminal and open parking spots into military area

Quoting MeCe (Reply 9): Here is very basic animation how can be built additional terminal and open parking spots into military area

Thanks MeCe ... that animation is eye-opening! That is a HUGE amount of area and can easily accomodate a whole new terminal ... along with plenty parking spaces. But bigger question remains on runway capacity. Is there any room for some new ATC safety procedures or that is maximum already? Also, anyway to lengthen or widen existing runways? I guess, it boils down to the basic question: how much longer can present IST sustain TK's growth?

Quoting MeCe (Reply 9):

I still believe that 3rd Airports needs a lot of efforts and study before construction can start if ever starts. Considering the leaked tapes of main contractor partners also puts this project in political risks.

I think DHMI should investigate possibilities for further growth at IST as a back up plan. Perhaps TK can built its own prestigious international terminal as shown by MeCe in the military area. A terminal design similar to Terminal-2 of MUC with minimum 40 or even 50 gates would be fine and fit well to this space. Existing International gates from 201 to 209 can be switched to domestic terminal to increase domestic capacity.

Quoting ASA (Reply 10): bigger question remains on runway capacity

Yes… This is the challenging question.

Only way to go is to build a new 17/35 parallel runway at the east side of the airport.

I still belive a proper planned 3 rd airport is a must for Istanbul. Current airport area and shape is well limited for further growth; but there is still some room as you see.

I wish TK, TAV and DHMI have a back up plan for this mess, for example years ago TK management declares growth for over 200 plane fleet; an additional terminal should considered at same time. Now this kind of expansion can be built at least 24 months, at this time TK's growth make runway capacity obsolote. I have clue there is still available slots because of TK's bank type operation. But again who wants to invest billion dollar for such a limited time operational terminal ? May be TK,TAV and DHMI should built and share expenses

Quoting TK105 (Reply 2): So TK will have mainly 4 types: A333 - B77W as WB and A321 - B738 as NB.

Yes looks to be so.

Basically TK fleet seating capacity mix will be -- 150 - 180 - 280 - 340.

Looks good except for the gap between 180-280, but with the A332 still sticking around in some numbers will help cover that.

Quoting ASA (Reply 7): Or moving dedicated cargo operations to SAW?

Simply does not work. It has been looked at, but virtually entire Turkish freight forwarder community is based on European side of Istanbul and moving cargo back and forth via road to SAW creates an even larger logistical time and cost headache.

Also for TK the ability to transfer cargo between pax and freighter aircraft at IST works similar to how passengers transfer between flights, so moving freighters to SAW weakens this connectivity.

Quoting MeCe (Reply 12): I still belive a proper planned 3 rd airport is a must for Istanbul.

  

Istanbul is now a market of 70mil, headed to 100 million, so there is indeed a strong need for a new greenfield project.

Without a new airport, Istanbul will end up being artificially constrained as we see in places like London.

Quoting MeCe (Reply 12): May be TK,TAV and DHMI should built and share expenses

Its more an issue of ROI. Spending billions on something that wont be around for several decades is a poor investment.

I recall reading in financial documents TAV expects to lose money on Ataturk if its closed to commercial traffic prior to 2022 as it will not have fully recouped its investment.

So I don't see much appetite for large spending at IST unless there are financial guarantees to the investors from a party like the government to assure them they receive proper returns even if the lifespan of any project is very short.

Quoting MeCe (Reply 9): Here is very basic animation how can be built additional terminal and open parking spots into military area

Inspired by MeCe animation, here is a modified version of that scheme with a second runway parallel to the existing 05-23


It is extending over the sea at the western end of the runway which can be done as in Madeira airport with pylons supporting the runway itself. ( Passengers might experience a similar experience to landing on an aircraft carrier )

yes a bit crazy, but Istanbul is full of crazy projects these days so why not  

[Edited 2014-03-04 05:13:06]

[Edited 2014-03-04 05:14:19]

Hello all I will be arriving in IST on 14/3/14, if I am correct as American citizens, my sister and I will be able to still get Visa on Arrival correct?
-ek604

Quoting LLA001 (Reply 14):

This is a nice idea: Relatively easy and cheap to realize.

However I do not think that it will improve the slot capacity a lot, as parallel multiple landings and take offs are still not possible.

hi all,
as per airfleets.net, other 2A330-243 of GF have been delivered to Hi fly and TK cancelled the deal. i found it at q4 presentation as well. does any body know why and under this circumstances what will happen to TC-JNV.

it will be the only Passanger A332 with RR engine, but there are plenty of A330-343 or A330-243 F with RR engines

Quoting ek604 (Reply 15): Hello all I will be arriving in IST on 14/3/14, if I am correct as American citizens, my sister and I will be able to still get Visa on Arrival correct?

Program is about to be discontinued in favor of eVisa which has been up and running since last fall.

You can get your visa online in advance.

http://www.evisa.gov.tr/en/

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Quoting TK105 (Reply 16): as parallel multiple landings and take offs are still not possible.

Thank you but a quick question, why parallel landings and take offs are not possible, due to regulations or physical limitations?

Parallel operations cannot be performed on the 17/35 runways due to lack of spacing between runways.

You would need to relocate 35L/17R further west towards the Florya community, but airport boundary does not provide sufficient space.

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):

Thanks for starting the thread and the quality news/opinion as always.
The XQ story is always interesting to me especially so much of LH's pie is taken by TK from the Turkish market and them openly complaining about it. XQ growth is impressive for sure nice to see their new order.

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter): They also published a fleet forecast as well.

The wide body fleet further out seems to be sufficient to start the new routes, although I am having a hard time seeing A340's past 2020 I always thought they would slowly retire them, I know they are impeccably maintained and owned so cheaper to operate but, probably will be the oldest a/c operated by TK if its not already.
What plane would fill the gap between 180 and 280 seats and have the range to operate long and thin routes? 788/789 I feel like any 350 offering would be too much plane for that gap.

Quoting MeCe (Reply 9):

Thats a very nice animation thanks for sharing that. I know IST needs a 3rd Mega airport, but from the start I believed that could have been developed at IST(crazy project extend to marmara sea) that would be crazy but less expensive than the 3rd project.This is a rare subject that I disagree with LAXintl, If we need a new airport it should not be built where they chose to built right now. I'm not a tree hugger or anything by any means, but I know and live part time in Istanbul and I did my research on this, the project coupled with the new bridge(that is being built fast) is a horror story for the city. A city like Istanbul needs a mega airport I agree but it could easily be in Silivri. Look at Rome, where FCO is built miles away from the city. Why put it in the last undeveloped heart or should I say lungs of the city.
I don't think this airport will be built no matter how many judges they change, and not togo in to politics but AKP as we know it with its current structure would either be gone or formed and renewed in different party for next elections.
We shall see.

Pegasus published its 2013 figures

Operating EBITAR was 533.5 million Turkish Lira increase of 28% compared to 2012, on 25% increase in revenues. Gross profit was 450.5mil.
Company transported 16.8 million guests with average load factor reached 80.2% serving 76 destinations in 30 countries. Year end fleet was 49.

Carrier says its domestic market share has risen to 26.9%.

For an idea of growth this is what they published as planned firm order deliveries.
2014 - 1 737NG
2015 - 2 737NG
2016 - 7 A320NEO
2017 - 5 A320NEO
2018 - 10 A320NEO
2019 - 14 A320NEO
2020 - 13 A320NEO

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In other news TK is greatly expanding its relationship with SQ. This is actually a major achievement as SQ is not the most friendly when it comes to cooperation.

Pending regulatory approvals effective May 1st. SQ will commence codeshare on TK services to Africa, Europe, Middle East, while TK will launch codeshare on SQ services to Australia, New Zealand and South East Asian destinations

Previously carriers only code shared on the IST-SIN sector.

As part of the deal SQ is increasing its IST service to 6x weekly effective May 26th.

I wonder if SQ sees TK as a bit of a QF-EK like deal, and can utilize TK to reach deeper into markets like Europe which SQ can access with its own equipment? This obviously also provides TK added connections to Oceania and Far East supplementing the codeshares on Thai.

Turkish Airlines started flying to Rotterdam yesterday. What a great service they had. Three pictures for now:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 22): I wonder if SQ sees TK as a bit of a QF-EK like deal, and can utilize TK to reach deeper into markets like Europe which SQ can access with its own equipment? This obviously also provides TK added connections to Oceania and Far East supplementing the codeshares on Thai.

But SQ/TK would still be at a disadvantage to QF/EK as you would have to route EUR-IST-SIN-AUS instead of EUR-DXB-AUS.

Quoting B747forever (Reply 25): But SQ/TK would still be at a disadvantage to QF/EK as you would have to route EUR-IST-SIN-AUS instead of EUR-DXB-AUS.

I think you are missing the point.

Works great for the carriers respective home markets SIN-IST-XXX or for TK IST-SIN-XXX

SQ is disadvantaged in Europe as it only serves a few cities but not now can access very many more 1-stop via IST, same manner QF is able to use EK DXB hub.

Lets see how this develops. I would not put it past them to maybe create a JV one day.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 26): I think you are missing the point. Works great for the carriers respective home markets SIN-IST-XXX or for TK IST-SIN-XXX

My bad. Of course it will focus on respective home market and open up many new 1 stop options.

TK's latest A333, registered TC-JOA, c/n 1501, seems to have been delivered from TLS. The next one is line 1514, so we may expect that one in a month or two.

More details on the SQ-TK deal.
TK will offer connections via IST to 4 points in Australia, 2 in New Zealand plus to Brunei and Hanoi on SQ, while SQ will codeshare on TK via IST to 23 points in 11 countries.


Also per Istanbul stock exchange filing, TK has agreed to lease 2 additional A321s. MSN 2916 and 2919 on 6-year terms. Both aircraft are ex Kingfisher.

TK released its 2013 earnings. Net profit TL 683 million on 18.8 billion TL revenue.

Also information released on various subsidiaries - Sun Express posted at USD $56mil net profit also.

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Other news, on Friday, Turkish construction firm YDA İnşaat won tender for operation of Dalaman airport terminal till 2040 for 705 million euros. Other bidders included TAV, Limak-GMR and Fraport.

This thread is discussing TK's upcoming service to BOS ...

and could use your help on why 343 is shown instead of 333  
BOS Terminal E Renovation (by iyerhari Mar 4 2014 in Civil Aviation)

Quoting HB-IWC (Reply 27): TK's latest A333, registered TC-JOA, c/n 1501, seems to have been delivered from TLS. The next one is line 1514, so we may expect that one in a month or two.

True, also the first 9W A332 arrived last night in Istanbul.
Second bird should follow very soon, too.

Just returned from Istanbul. What a major difference between TC-JSE (A321) and TC-JFZ (B738)... Most passengers were disappointed when they entered the plane.

Does TK think to upgrade the interior of its older planes? Or will they wait until the birds are replaced with A320NEO/737MAX?

Quoting tk1244 (Reply 32): Just returned from Istanbul. What a major difference between TC-JSE (A321) and TC-JFZ (B738)... Most passengers were disappointed when they entered the plane. Does TK think to upgrade the interior of its older planes? Or will they wait until the birds are replaced with A320NEO/737MAX?

I think its going to be none of the options you mentioned.

They will just be still around and subbed randomly on every possible destination. TK will not retire too many birds except the early TC-JF(X) series. Some birds are getting new turkish made seats, that is all.

With Turkish Technic now making seats they plan on refitting 25 narrowbody planes with the new cabins this year.
Anadolujet will also get the new seats, so some aircraft will get a refresh but ultimately there will be a few varieties floating around.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 34): With Turkish Technic now making seats they plan on refitting 25 narrowbody planes with the new cabins this year. Anadolujet will also get the new seats, so some aircraft will get a refresh but ultimately there will be a few varieties floating around.

The sad part is that those will be changed with non IFE seats. So, in the end there is not much of a difference for the passenger.

Quoting Turkish777X (Reply 35): be changed with non IFE seats

To my knowledge, there are Turkish made intercity buses with IFE systems. I'm sure TK can integrate IFE to those seats easily. The real challenge would be the certification!

Aviation Daily had a network profile for TK. Below are a few bits.

Top Airports in average daily departures
1. IST - 390
2. ESB - 87
3. SAW - 52
4. ADB - 16
5. ADA - 15
6. AYT - 10
7. TLV - 7
8. ASR - 7
9. TZX - 6
10. VKO - 6

Top Airports per ASMs(mil) and year over year change
1. IST - 670.3, +21.5%
2. SAW - 38.5, +205.7%
3. ESB - 36.9, +7.1
4. NRT - 24.1, +80.9
5. JFK - 21.2, +1.8
6. BKK - 20.4, +8.9
7. LAX - 16.3, 0.0
8. GRU - 14.4, +39.0%
9. IAH - 13.0, 0.0
10. LHR - 11.5, +10.1%

ASM Distribution and year over year change
Africa/ME - 65.8%, +26.5%
Asia - 12% , +26.0%
Canada - 0.6% , 0.0
Europe - 15.5% , +29.0%
Latin Am - 1.1% , +39.0%
USA - 5.1% , +25.1%

Also if anyone is curious the top stations in Europe based on enplanement are LHR, CDG, FRA, DUS, AMS

Hey guys finally got my Turkish Airlines TR up for those interested.



Turkish Airlines J Class DUB-IST-ATH+Lounges (by OA260 Mar 10 2014 in Trip Reports)

Points to mention were the three different cabin interiors. Of course I was spoilt with the new interior in J on the DUB-IST which was fab.

Catering great as always. That has always been a strong point on TK from my early days of flying them in the 90's.

The only issue I have is the flight connections at IST. WOW that place is mental. They really need to triple it in size as its one thing that lets down the whole experience.

The lounge has recently ( since my TR ) been extended again and feedback is very positive so it seems they have solved that which is great.

I know people sometimes complain about the crew but in all four flights I could not fault them at all. Smiling/attentive and professional service.

TK's second A332 from Jet Airways arrived last night in Istanbul.

Quoting Turkish777X (Reply 39):

According to Amadeus these birds are scheduled for BCN and MAD on morning rotation.

Quoting Steelyman (Reply 40): According to Amadeus these birds are scheduled for BCN and MAD on morning rotation.

Let's hope for a better cabin condition than other previously leased planes.

When is the first flight of these planes scheduled?

Quoting Turkish777X (Reply 41):

Which ones? This one seems to be in good shape, similar to the 77W when they came first time. Config is 30C/190Y.

They're starting to fly by end of this month, and scheduled as daily to BCN/MAD 28APR onwards.

Quoting Steelyman (Reply 42): Config is 30C/190Y.

Interesting configuration. Could be deployed on almost any route of the TK network.
Wonder if we could ever see it in NCE. It has a very premium heavy customer base, where TK sells even in winter months lots of C class seats.

Quoting Turkish777X (Reply 43): Wonder if we could ever see it in NCE. It has a very premium heavy customer base, where TK sells even in winter months lots of C class seats.

AFAIK in NCE there's regional Amadeus HQ which generates always big traffic from there...

Not only of Amadeus, but also lots of other IT companies and start-ups are in the region.
Additionally, there is a huge influx of tourists from the Middle East and the Far East.

The two planes seem not be loaded into their own web page's reservation system, since these planes are not showing up if you make a dummy booking.

The 30/190 seats map can be see in Seatguru.com

http://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Jet.../Jet_Airways_Airbus_A330-200_B.php

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accoring to www.trfleetnews.com, second GF A332-243 has been painted as TK. really i am confused, for me I will not believe unless I see the bird at flights. I remember EC-LKE several months at Istanbul and then it has been returned.

Quoting ist2014 (Reply 47): accoring to www.trfleetnews.com, second GF A332-243 has been painted as TK. really i am confused, for me I will not believe unless I see the bird at flights. I remember EC-LKE several months at Istanbul and then it has been returned.

That contract was cancelled, so those birds will NOT be delivered.

hi turkish 777x
do you know why the contract has been cancelled, why they took one of it and then cancelled contract