taxpilot
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GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Sun Mar 02, 2014 9:55 pm

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...-could-put-strain-airline-industry

Job openings comming, according to this article. Good luck to the young qualified pilots.

[Edited 2014-03-02 13:56:51]

[Edited 2014-03-02 13:57:34]
 
cheeken
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GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:37 pm

So are they now called "BUAY GAO"? (hokkien for not enough)
 
EricR
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GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 1:32 am

Some airlines are in a much better position to address this issue than others. For example, by 2022, WN will have only 18% of its pilots at retirement age. However, AA will have 61% of their pilots at retirement age. Therefore, the upcoming pilot shortage for AA is compounded by the fact that they have such a senior labor force set to retire in a few years.

Some carriers such as DL have been addressing this issue for some time. By 2022, DL will have 47%of its pilots at retirement age, however, DL has already begun the process of shifting 1,000 regional pilot positions to mainline flying.

The upfront costs people have to pay to buildup the necessary hours to fly commercial has become a major hinderence. To combat this issue, airlines such as EK have built their own flight academy.

More interesting info can be found in the presentation below:

http://nebula.wsimg.com/8991fc84af0c...47D1E7&disposition=0&alloworigin=1
 
PHX787
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GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 2:53 am

I know the regionals are going to have a huge shortage, but at the same time, the retirement of the CRJs is probably going to alleviate a lot of that.
Follow me on twitter: www.twitter.com/phx787
 
tyler81190
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 5:57 am

I guess the GAO gets a new title... "Captain Obvious"

In reality, we all knew it was coming. In reality, it will continue for a while and will hurt the regional airlines...

Ticket prices will rise, hopefully with pilot pay. (for regional) and eventually more prospective pilots will finally get into the industry.
 
catiii
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 6:00 am

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 4):

Not really. Congress asked GAO for the report. These analyses are usually used as grounds for legislating, in this case I imagine the legislation will be some kind of relief from the 1500/ATP rule that Congress implemented post Colgan.
 
martinair50
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 6:36 am

I guess the real bummer here is that pilots need to have at least 1500 flight hours (I believe) when coming in to the regionals? Because I know enough unemployed but completely graduated pilots.

[Edited 2014-03-02 22:39:30]
 
planemaker
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 8:27 am

Business Week also has an article... though nothing new to anyone:

http://www.businessweek.com/articles...meone-to-pay-rising-costs#r=hpt-ls

Regional Airlines Search for Someone to Pay Rising Costs

Quote:
For years, the large network airlines have exploited the cost arbitrage between flying their own planes and the far-cheaper rates they could find in a competitive marketplace where regional airlines bid against each other for routes.
.

The cost differential has created a situation where roughly half of all U.S. flights are now on a regional airline, carrying 22 percent of passengers, and the system worked well for airlines for many years.
.

The low wages for new pilots flying for regional carriers shocked many lawmakers grappling with the aftermath of the 2009 crash.
.

Salaries for first officers at regional airlines start at $22,400, according to the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA), the largest U.S. pilot union. That might be an improvement but still falls short of initial pay in other fields open to trained aviators, such as test engineer ($52,500) and Air Force second lieutenant ($53,616).
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
norcal
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 1:19 pm

Quoting EricR (Reply 2):
Some airlines are in a much better position to address this issue than others. For example, by 2022, WN will have only 18% of its pilots at retirement age. However, AA will have 61% of their pilots at retirement age. Therefore, the upcoming pilot shortage for AA is compounded by the fact that they have such a senior labor force set to retire in a few years.

AA will never have problems finding pilots. This isn't a shortage of pilots, but rather a shortage of pilots willing to work for the slave like wages that regional airlines offer. The GAO report is very clear in the distinction. There are a ton of pilots who have elected to sit sidelines because they do not want to work for regional wages.

What we will see is the near collapse of the regional airline business as we know it. They either have to pay higher wages or face extinction. Even repealing the ATP law and going back to the old 200 hour pilots won't solve this problem. Bryan Bedford said as much in a recent interview. This regional pilot shortage has been brewing for the better of ten years. It will not be fixed easily, most likely not at all.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 3):

I know the regionals are going to have a huge shortage, but at the same time, the retirement of the CRJs is probably going to alleviate a lot of that.

Not a chance, the attrition is already happening faster than the regionals planned. Republic parked 27 ERJs early because they were unable to staff their operation. Yes those planes were planned on being parked eventually, just not yet. Republic has just finished a costly restructuring of their Chautauqua unit and now it appears they'll probably have to shut down that certificate.

The mainline carriers will require at least 7,000 pilots due to retirements in the next 5 years. Most of those pilots will come from regional airlines. That's potentially 700 aircraft worth of pilots that need to be replaced at that level. There will not be a net loss of 700 aircraft at the regionals. More along the lines of 400-450 after the 50 seaters are parked and replaced with some 76 seaters. I don't think that transition will occur in 5 years time though. A lot of leases of 50 seaters run past 2020.
 
Markam
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 2:19 pm

Quoting taxpilot (Thread starter):
comming
Quoting EricR (Reply 2):
hinderence

I bet that GAO also predicts a shortage of English language teachers...   

You do know that there is a "Check Spelling" feature available, right? 
 
dynamo12
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 4:25 pm

Norcal is exactly right.

AA and friends could and will continue to fill every seat they want many times over. Many of us have been hearing about pilot shortages for years now. Reality is that mainline flying remains very competitive.

Regionals pay INCREDIBLY LOW wages. If when regional flying pays more or moves mainline, any shortage will reduce. That's basic market forces, and I don't particularly see the issue with regional pay coming up a bit.

Study shows paying smart people able to pursue a variety of careers next to nothing results in those folks choosing other careers! This is rather obvious.
 
tozairport
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 4:35 pm

Quoting EricR (Reply 2):
Some airlines are in a much better position to address this issue than others. For example, by 2022, WN will have only 18% of its pilots at retirement age. However, AA will have 61% of their pilots at retirement age.

On the other hand this could be an advantage for airlines like AA, UA, and DL who have large amounts of retirements over the next 10 years. I don't think the major airlines will have trouble filling their seats, at least at the mainline. However, when a pilot retires, he usually does so at max pay, and is replaced by a pilot at the lowest payscale. The turnover at the legacy's will cause lower labor costs, although the effect will be temporary. WN will see very little of this advantage as no one is leaving and by that time most will be at the top of the pay scale. FWIW.
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
 
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longhauler
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 4:46 pm

Quoting Markam (Reply 9):
You do know that there is a "Check Spelling" feature available, right?

It hasn't worked in years.

Quoting tozairport (Reply 11):
However, when a pilot retires, he usually does so at max pay, and is replaced by a pilot at the lowest payscale.

That however, is not normally what happens. When a pilot retires off the top of the heap, he is replaced by another pilot making exactly the same pay. Then everyone in the airline "rachets" up one step to fill that one gap, with the new hire at the lowest pay moving into the bottom of the heap. When you consider the huge amount of training replacing that one pilot from top to bottom, it costs far more than replacing the bottom of the heap with a new hire pilot.

That is why, in multi-type airlines, the slower retirement rates of the movement from age 60 to age 65 has been an overall monetary gain for the airline.
Just because I stopped arguing, doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up!
 
EricR
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 5:07 pm

Quoting norcal (Reply 8):
This isn't a shortage of pilots, but rather a shortage of pilots willing to work for the slave like wages that regional airlines offer. The GAO report is very clear in the distinction. There are a ton of pilots who have elected to sit sidelines because they do not want to work for regional wages.

That means there is a shortage of pilots. The reason why there is a shortage of pilots may be because of pay at the regional levels, but this doesn't negate the fact that their is a shortage. This just explains the reason for the shortage. In addition, the new government rules put in place requiring more minimum flights hours also contributes to the shortage of pilots.

Quoting tozairport (Reply 11):
I don't think the major airlines will have trouble filling their seats, at least at the mainline

I think it is important to remember that regional carriers provide the capacity to help fill mainline planes. If you lose the feed of regionals over the course of time, then this could have a domino effect of filling mainline seats. Some routes can be converted to mainline via less frequency if there is slack in fleet utilization, but some routes may end up being discontinued all together. Several routes flown by regionals may become unprofitable under the higher cost structure of legacy airlines.
 
planemaker
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 5:28 pm

Quoting norcal (Reply 8):
This isn't a shortage of pilots, but rather a shortage of pilots willing to work for the slave like wages that regional airlines offer. The GAO report is very clear in the distinction. There are a ton of pilots who have elected to sit sidelines because they do not want to work for regional wages.

Norcal is correct.

There is no shortage. Furthermore, as some publications have highlighted, there are several thousand pilots flying biz av that could easily fill the regional vacancies... but, obviously, for the right price. But the airlines do NOT believe in the free market and have milked the now broken system that allowed them to take advantage of young aspiring "big metal" dreamers.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
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Web500sjc
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 6:11 pm

Quoting longhauler (Reply 12):
That however, is not normally what happens. When a pilot retires off the top of the heap, he is replaced by another pilot making exactly the same pay.

every one gets pay based on longevity - not seniority.

If you look at pay scales, pilots top out by the time they get 20 years longevity- that top out doesn't equate for the difference between captain and FO or 737 vs 777. It mean that they don't get any more pay raises except for equipment or seat changes.

So when the 34 year 777 captain retires he will be replaced with a 32 year 767 captain (no payment change). the real cost benefit is the new 737 FO getting 68$ an hour vs the 777 captain getting $200 an hour.
Boiler Up!
 
dashman
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 6:20 pm

The congress needs to draft legislation to use taxpayer funding creating subsidies for aspiring pilots. This will reduce their out of pocket expenses becoming a pilot. This will also put aspiring pilots in a better position to work for the average $22,000 airlines are offering these days. Another possible option is a US. government flight academy that would be charged with insuring an adequate supply of pilots to the airlines. It is is obvious airline managments are incapable of insuring there is an adequate supply of pilots to fill the seats of their aircraft. The citizens of the US have a right to low cost, well regulated, convenient air travel system.
 
PPVRA
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 6:47 pm

Quoting dashman (Reply 16):
The congress needs to draft legislation to use taxpayer funding creating subsidies for aspiring pilots. This will reduce their out of pocket expenses becoming a pilot. This will also put aspiring pilots in a better position to work for the average $22,000 airlines are offering these days. Another possible option is a US. government flight academy that would be charged with insuring an adequate supply of pilots to the airlines. It is is obvious airline managments are incapable of insuring there is an adequate supply of pilots to fill the seats of their aircraft. The citizens of the US have a right to low cost, well regulated, convenient air travel system.

Flood the market with pilots and you can expect even lower salaries. That means lower high seniority pay, too.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
catiii
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 7:41 pm

Quoting dashman (Reply 16):

That's the absolute worst thing Congress can do. The US citizens have a right to nothing, first of all. Show me where in the Constitution the right to low cost air travel exists? Second, why should my tax dollars go to subsidize someone's career choice? And after I've paid for their training, what if they bust the check ride? Am I getting that money back? And if we're doing it for airline pilots, what about STEM? Why not do it for them?

Just an absolutely horrible idea.
 
ckfred
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 8:03 pm

What this shows is how a regulated airline industry with a large military worked, and how a deregulated airline industry with a smaller military is still trying to figure things out, despite deregulation going into effect in 1979.

When the CAB set fares, and the military turned out a lot of well-trained pilots, airlines had an ample supply of pilots for entry-level poisitons (most F/E).

Now, the military is smaller, meaning fewer pilots coming out each year. By the same token, a deregulated industry means farming out thinner routes to regional carriers paying lower wages.

So, low wages plus paying for flight training means pilots who can't make a decent living while waiting for an opening at the likes of AA, UA, DL, WN, or B6,
 
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longhauler
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 8:21 pm

Quoting Web500sjc (Reply 15):
So when the 34 year 777 captain retires he will be replaced with a 32 year 767 captain (no payment change).

That depends on where one flies, I guess. Where I work, going from B767 Captain to B777 Captain garners a $40,000 a year pay raise. And, as every mainline wide body Captain has already reached the top pay band, the job pays what the job pays, it doesn't matter who is hired at the bottom.

Quoting Web500sjc (Reply 15):
the real cost benefit is the new 737 FO getting 68$ an hour vs the 777 captain getting $200 an hour.

And those jobs pay the same, no matter who sits there. So when one moves off the top, everyone moves up one level, gaining a raise as they move. The only real cost saving is at the bottom, a new hire B737 F/O likely would make less than the 2 or 3 year B737 F/O he replaced.

The big problem with this system, (for the airline) is that every time a pilot is retrained to a new position, there is cost involved, and ... when pilots leave off the top, there is a possibility that everyone moves one step below him to fill the vacancy. Where I fly, that could open the possibility of 12 pilot courses for every Captain that retires off of the B777. (More if you include RPs). That is why delaying retirements by 5 years was so lucrative for the airlines.
Just because I stopped arguing, doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up!
 
ROSWELL41
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 8:30 pm

Cheap air travel is not a right. If we need to have a smaller air travel market with fewer but higher paying jobs, so be it. The free market is real and if we are to maintain the safest air travel system in the world, we need bright young people to choose this career. The last ten years of airline management regimes have dissuaded those young people. Chickens are coming home to roost.
 
KBJCpilot
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 8:32 pm

Quoting norcal (Reply 8):
This isn't a shortage of pilots, but rather a shortage of pilots willing to work for the slave like wages that regional airlines offer. The GAO report is very clear in the distinction. There are a ton of pilots who have elected to sit sidelines because they do not want to work for regional wages.

There are also a ton of pilots who anticipated in being hired out of college (ERU, UND, Metro, etc) with 400-500 hours under their belt. Now they have to wait another 2-5 years which costs money, lots of money. 500 hrs @ $150 an hour is $75k. Money they hadn't planned on needing 4 years ago when they entered college.

There needs to be a happy medium somewhere.
Samsonite, I was way off!
 
planemaker
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 8:38 pm

Quoting ckfred (Reply 19):
What this shows is how a regulated airline industry with a large military worked, and how a deregulated airline industry with a smaller military is still trying to figure things out, despite deregulation going into effect in 1979.

The airlines always looked for short term gains and exploited dreaming young pilots that wanted to fly heavy metal.

So nothing to figure out, really. All they have to do is offer a decent wage and compete for the thousands of qualified pilots flying biz jets, cargo (UPS, DHL, FEDEX), etc.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 19):
By the same token, a deregulated industry means farming out thinner routes to regional carriers paying lower wages.

Regional carriers carrying almost a quarter of all passengers is not farming out "thinner routes". That is the majors farming out as much flying as they could get a way with.

Quoting ROSWELL41 (Reply 21):
Chickens are coming home to roost.

  

It boggles the mind that some people don't see the situation for what it is.

Quoting KBJCpilot (Reply 22):
There are also a ton of pilots who anticipated in being hired out of college (ERU, UND, Metro, etc) with 400-500 hours under their belt. Now they have to wait another 2-5 years which costs money, lots of money. 500 hrs @ $150 an hour is $75k. Money they hadn't planned on needing 4 years ago when they entered college.

Yes... that is under the broken system of exploiting young dreaming pilots. There are thousands of qualified pilots that should be paid the decent wage that a real "free market" would provide. And then the college kids could slot into the jobs just vacated.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
ROSWELL41
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 8:39 pm

Why this persistent airliners.net belief that pilots will be paying to attain 1500 hours? Once I had my CFI at 260 hours, I paid for no more than a couple dozen hours before being hired at my first airline at approximately 1400 hours total time. I got the rest of those hours by flying corporate aircraft, flying skydivers and mostly from flight instructing. Those are fundamental ways aspiring professional pilots in the USA gain experience. Someone paying for all 1500 hours is simply wasting their or their parents money. And other pilots certainly respect you less as well.
 
rwy04lga
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 8:41 pm

Quoting EricR (Reply 13):
but this doesn't negate the fact that their is a shortage

The mistake shown here would not have been caught by ANY spell-checker

Quoting longhauler (Reply 20):
going from B767 Captain to B777 Captain

Wouldn't you first go from a 767 captain to a 777 FO, THEN to a 777 Captain?
Just accept that some days, you're the pigeon, and other days the statue
 
KBJCpilot
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 8:46 pm

Quoting ROSWELL41 (Reply 24):
Why this persistent airliners.net belief that pilots will be paying to attain 1500 hours?

Worst case scenario. I know there are ways to build hours but a college kid will be in debt $50k just getting the hours and certificates they need in order to meet the requirements of graduation (PPL, INST, MULTI, COMM, CFI). Now add the additional hours required to meet the magic 1,500 level, or 1,000 if you attend an accredited university, and you are out some serious cash if you don't latch on somewhere teaching or flying cancelled checks around.
Samsonite, I was way off!
 
dashman
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 8:47 pm

Sorry I forgot the winking eye emoticon. My comments were meant to be a slam on the federal government interjecting themselves in every aspect of the economy. Unfortunately I'm afraid they WILLl insert themselves in this issue and like everything else they do will make matters worse. They pilot glut of many years has now come full circle and need to work itself out through the free market, supply and demand. Airlines have choices. Pay more, attract qualified pilots and operated their needed flights or hang onto $22000 a year model and have aircraft sit idle. Life is great, full of choices.
You are correct, the rights outlined in the Constitutuon don't include Planes, Trains, and Automobiles.
 
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DocLightning
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 8:59 pm

Quoting norcal (Reply 8):

What we will see is the near collapse of the regional airline business as we know it.

And there's the rub. Regional carriers have been bidding to the majors at *way* below operational costs. Every single one is hemorrhaging money. The model is not sustainable in the long term and it is going to fall apart very soon.

Fact: safely transporting passengers in airplanes is expensive. As a rule, the smaller a plane (of a given technological generation) the higher the CASM.

Quoting dashman (Reply 16):
The citizens of the US have a right to low cost, well regulated, convenient air travel system.

No. We have a right to a SAFE air travel system. That much is and should be up to the government. Finding and retaining qualified employees is a part of running any business and if an airline can't do that without government help, then they shouldn't be in business.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
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longhauler
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 9:17 pm

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 25):

Wouldn't you first go from a 767 captain to a 777 FO, THEN to a 777 Captain?

There would be a pretty hefty pay cut going from B767 CA to B777 F/O.

The normal progression where I fly is to start as a narrow body F/O, (EMJ or A320) or as a wide body RP then narrow body F/O. Then to go to wide body F/O (could be B767, A330, B787 or B777 ... or a combination of those). Then to a narrow body CA, again either EMJ or A320 or both, then from there to wide body CA (same 4 as above).

Because of pay overlaps, that progression isn't always followed to the T, but close enough.
Just because I stopped arguing, doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up!
 
martinair50
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 9:46 pm

Can someone please give me an answer to the question I asked above? I want to know of I understood this correctly.
 
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longhauler
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Mon Mar 03, 2014 10:21 pm

Quoting Martinair50 (Reply 30):
Can someone please give me an answer to the question I asked above? I want to know of I understood this correctly.
Quoting Martinair50 (Reply 6):
I guess the real bummer here is that pilots need to have at least 1500 flight hours (I believe) when coming in to the regionals?

That is right, with new rules, a new hire F/O at the regionals (or higher) must have 1500 hours. Whether it is a "bummer" or not is up for debate. There are some that say it will increase safety, some that it will increase wages. That appears to be the crux of this debate.

Quoting Martinair50 (Reply 6):
Because I know enough unemployed but completely graduated pilots.

They are not all unemployed ... just not working at the regionals (or higher). As stated above, there are those working other flying positions to gain this experience, or those that have simply "opted out" of the business as presently, the remuneration paid does not reflect the effort given to acheive that position.
Just because I stopped arguing, doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up!
 
PPVRA
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Tue Mar 04, 2014 4:01 pm

Quoting ckfred (Reply 19):
Now, the military is smaller, meaning fewer pilots coming out each year. By the same token, a deregulated industry means farming out thinner routes to regional carriers paying lower wages.

The military is the equivalent of subsidizing pilot training. They do a good job training their pilots, but it does put downward pressure on wages.

Quoting ROSWELL41 (Reply 24):
Why this persistent airliners.net belief that pilots will be paying to attain 1500 hours? Once I had my CFI at 260 hours, I paid for no more than a couple dozen hours before being hired at my first airline at approximately 1400 hours total time. I got the rest of those hours by flying corporate aircraft, flying skydivers and mostly from flight instructing. Those are fundamental ways aspiring professional pilots in the USA gain experience. Someone paying for all 1500 hours is simply wasting their or their parents money. And other pilots certainly respect you less as well.

Just to clarify, my previous post was in regard to pilot training programs like certain airlines have, where they pay or finance the entire training.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
catiii
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Tue Mar 04, 2014 4:11 pm

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 32):
The military is the equivalent of subsidizing pilot training. They do a good job training their pilots, but it does put downward pressure on wages.

How so? We're training pilots to fly for the military. It's a far different animal then subsidizing training that's for a skill that's never used by the government.
 
commavia
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Tue Mar 04, 2014 4:19 pm

Quoting norcal (Reply 8):
AA will never have problems finding pilots. This isn't a shortage of pilots, but rather a shortage of pilots willing to work for the slave like wages that regional airlines offer.

I tend to agree with this - this is the entirely predictable evolution of supply and demand. Prevailing wages for pilots - like other airline workers - has plummeted, on average, in the last decade because of a glut of excess supply. Due to bankruptcies, consolidations, layoffs, age 60 becoming age 65, etc., there have been plenty of pilots willing to fill jobs so the price for this labor has naturally fallen. Those days are gone. Supply is now very tight so the asking price for an hour of a trained pilot's time has gone up, and so naturally the companies still paying the least (i.e., the regionals) are struggling to staff flights. I think the market will sort this all out through a combination of upgauging and parking lots of 50-seaters - trends already evident, anyway - and, again, a steady rise in pilot wages.
 
PPVRA
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Tue Mar 04, 2014 4:57 pm

Quoting catiii (Reply 33):
How so? We're training pilots to fly for the military. It's a far different animal then subsidizing training that's for a skill that's never used by the government.

They pay for the training and they are one of the largest sources of pilots. Without the military, there would be fewer pilots out there.

Creating more pilots for the airlines is not the intention, but the effect is the same.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
Mir
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RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Tue Mar 04, 2014 5:32 pm

Quoting dynamo12 (Reply 10):
AA and friends could and will continue to fill every seat they want many times over.

For the moment. Because of the lack of available pilots for the regionals, that is eventually going to hit the majors. Within 5-10 years we might actually be looking at a true shortage, rather than just an issue of supply and demand in the labor market.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 14):
Furthermore, as some publications have highlighted, there are several thousand pilots flying biz av that could easily fill the regional vacancies... but, obviously, for the right price.

I made in the mid-40s my first year flying jet charter. It would have taken me a while as an FO at a regional to get to that point, if I could have gotten there at all. I'd be happy to go fly for an airline, and I'd even take a pay cut to do so, but there are limits to how much of a pay cut I'm willing to take.

-Mir
7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
 
norcal
Posts: 1507
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2005 1:44 am

RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Tue Mar 04, 2014 5:33 pm

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 35):
They pay for the training and they are one of the largest sources of pilots. Without the military, there would be fewer pilots out there.

Creating more pilots for the airlines is not the intention, but the effect is the same.

Not anymore. The military isn't a strong source of pilots for the airlines any longer. $225,000 retention bonuses for fighter pilots to stay in.

http://www.airforcetimes.com/article...ers-fighter-pilots-225-000-stay-in
 
Flighty
Posts: 9963
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:07 am

RE: GAO Says Pilot Shortage Is Coming

Tue Mar 04, 2014 5:43 pm

Quoting longhauler (Reply 20):
That depends on where one flies, I guess. Where I work, going from B767 Captain to B777 Captain garners a $40,000 a year pay raise. And, as every mainline wide body Captain has already reached the top pay band, the job pays what the job pays, it doesn't matter who is hired at the bottom.

Given a constant fleet plan, retiring a widebody captain _does_ result in a zero-seniority new hire FO being hired at bottom wages. It makes the entire pilot pool a tiny bit less senior. In the FO pools, that could lower pay and costs, as new occupants have fewer years seniority. In Captain pools, assuming everybody is senior, retirement has zero cost effect other than training.

Quoting catiii (Reply 33):
How so? We're training pilots to fly for the military. It's a far different animal then subsidizing training that's for a skill that's never used by the government.

Military is the least cost efficient way to train pilots that could ever be imagined!

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