DeltaXNA
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Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 8:25 am

Will they move the slot to CLT and just route passengers through there or do they intend to keep the nonstop from RDU?
 
rutankrd
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 8:29 am

Route exists to support a valuable and large corporate contract it won't go away anytime soon.
 
MAH4546
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 9:08 am

The route isn't going anywhere. AA will continue providing daily Raleigh-London service for a very, very long time. Raleigh-London is a larger local market than Charlotte-London or Charlotte-Anywhere in Europe.
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LBA1432
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 1:34 pm

The route will not go anywhere, even RDU themselves issued a statement saying this 6 months or so ago when discussing the impact the US - AA merger. RDU - LHR is there for a reason (not just being a reminder of the AA hub at RDU) but for business contracts operating between the Research Triangle and London / The M4 business corridor that LHR pretty much sits on. Moving the route to CLT would be idiotic in my opinion.

Plus I'm flying the RDU - LHR route in August, I don't want to be routed via CLT  
 
Cubsrule
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 1:35 pm

I certainly understand the temptation to look at a map and try to connect something that happens at CLT with RDU-LHR, but the two are almost completely independent. RDU-LHR is mostly RDU O&D and is subsidized. Having a hub 200 miles away affects neither the O&D nor the subsidy. I suppose that a few of the few passengers who connect in RDU might now connect in CLT, but the group of passengers connecting in RDU is pretty small to begin with and certainly isn't what makes or breaks the flight.
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a380787
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 2:36 pm

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 2):


The route isn't going anywhere. AA will continue providing daily Raleigh-London service for a very, very long time. Raleigh-London is a larger local market than Charlotte-London or Charlotte-Anywhere in Europe.

Not about "moving" it ... but whether having BA 787 service it be better solution
 
jfk777
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 2:38 pm

USairways got a LHR slot for its Charlotte to London flight when Delta gave up its Miami to LHR flights. This is why the flight orginates in Miami or used to. Change of gauge with same flight number.
 
triangleGIS21
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 2:50 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 5):
Not about "moving" it ... but whether having BA 787 service it be better solution

That's actually a really good question. I would think that with the mainly corporate (specifically Glaxo and other RTP-related business) and premium-heavy clientele of the RDU-LHR flight, that a premium-heavy 787 would be the best aircraft for the job. The thing is, however, that AA has maintained a crew base at RDU exclusively for this flight for a very long time, which might be why AA uses its own aircraft on the route.

Quoting DeltaXNA (Thread starter):
Will they move the slot to CLT and just route passengers through there or do they intend to keep the nonstop from RDU?

There's a large amount of business, specifically in pharmaceuticals, that occurs between Raleigh and London, because GlaxoSmithKline maintains dual headquarters in both cities. It's this traffic, and the premium corporate contracts that come with it, that makes the route very profitable for AA. If AA/BA doesn't fly it, someone else will, and they would be incredibly foolish to drop it considering how important their RDU FF base is.

[Edited 2014-03-05 07:00:12]
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 3:15 pm

The flight is going nowhere. As its been mentioned, RDU-LHR is the largest North Carolina-Europe market and its very high yielding to boot. If that wasnt enough, there is a revenue guarantee on the flight. Why would AA walk away from free money in a decent sized, high yielding route?
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AAIL86
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 4:46 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 8):
The flight is going nowhere. As its been mentioned, RDU-LHR is the largest North Carolina-Europe market and its very high yielding to boot. If that wasnt enough, there is a revenue guarantee on the flight. Why would AA walk away from free money in a decent sized, high yielding route?

Yes. If anything, the merger will help O&D on the RDU side as local passengers who flew US Airways from CLT will now have this option. Perhaps a return to the 777 (new 2 class version?) is in order?

[Edited 2014-03-05 08:47:43]
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vv701
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 4:50 pm

It is not coincidence that the exact distance from the GSK London HQ to LHR T3 is no more than 7.3 miles. Even moving the RDU flight to T5 would extend the average drive time by over 33 per cent from 25 to 34 minutes.   
 
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 6:43 pm

Quoting DeltaXNA (Thread starter):
Will they move the slot to CLT and just route passengers through there or do they intend to keep the nonstop from RDU?

They will keep it. If they dropped it, United or Delta would jump in with some sort of offer.

What I wonder is how much AA will expand out of RDU though going forward. Lenovo has just purchased a major portion of IBM, and continues to grow in the area. There is going to be more demand on Far east routes. I am sure AA will route most through DFW and ORD, but it will be interesting to see if how those flights develop out of RDU.
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AirbusGeek
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 7:53 pm

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 2):

No matter what you say, CLT will also be a MUCH LARGER hub than RDU and CLT can support other flights into Europe unlike RDU!
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 7:57 pm

Quoting DeltaXNA (Thread starter):
Will they move the slot to CLT and just route passengers through there or do they intend to keep the nonstop from RDU?

Now that the Northwest / Delta DC-9s have been retired, I think the future of this route is the most over discussed topic on ANet. At least we haven't had any "future of AA's LAX-YYZ" or "will AA drop LAX-BNA" threads in a few weeks....
 
MAH4546
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 8:10 pm

Quoting AirbusGeek (Reply 12):
Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 2):
No matter what you say, CLT will also be a MUCH LARGER hub than RDU and CLT can support other flights into Europe unlike RDU!









Are you kidding me? Where on earth did I say otherwise?

Please stop overreacting to things. The Charlotte hub has a very safe future - it will shrink and lose long-haul flights (Rio de Janeiro ends September 12th, others will follow), but it isn't going anywhere. I never said otherwise.
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AirbusGeek
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 8:25 pm

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 14):

Firstly, the local market at CLT is larger than RDU so therefore CLT is a larger hub. The only reason this flight still exist is because AA has a contract with GlaxoSmithKline, if they didn't RDU-LHR wouldn't probably exist.

Long haul flights from Charlotte are safe, it would make much more sense to operate one flight from Charlotte, with lower costs than a double daily from somewhere like New York or Chicago, with higher costs!

And CLT-GIG does not end September 12th, but early January 2015.

[Edited 2014-03-05 12:30:59]

[Edited 2014-03-05 12:33:38]
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LAXdude1023
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 8:38 pm

Quoting AirbusGeek (Reply 12):
No matter what you say, CLT will also be a MUCH LARGER hub than RDU and CLT can support other flights into Europe unlike RDU!
Quoting AirbusGeek (Reply 15):
Firstly, the local market at CLT is larger than RDU so therefore CLT is a larger hub. The only reason this flight still exist is because AA has a contract with GlaxoSmithKline, if they didn't RDU-LHR wouldn't probably exist.

Long haul flights from Charlotte are safe, it would make much more sense to operate one flight from Charlotte, with lower costs than a double daily from somewhere like New York or Chicago, with higher costs!

You need to chill out bro. All that was said was that RDU-LHR was larger than any CLT-Europe market. That is a fact. Its not debatable.

Nobody, for a moment, suggested that AA was somehow going to move its hub to RDU from CLT. I dont even know where you got that from.

I will challenge your assertion that all long haul flights from Charlotte are safe. A lot of them are (LHR, CDG, FRA, MAD) some probably arent (LIS and BRU).
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USAirALB
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 8:46 pm

Quoting AirbusGeek (Reply 15):
Firstly, the local market at CLT is larger than RDU so therefore CLT is a larger hub. The only reason this flight still exist is because AA has a contract with GlaxoSmithKline, if they didn't RDU-LHR wouldn't probably exist.

Long haul flights from Charlotte are safe, it would make much more sense to operate one flight from Charlotte, with lower costs than a double daily from somewhere like New York or Chicago, with higher costs!

And CLT-GIG does not end September 12th, but early January 2015.

Take a chill pill!

CLT-GIG ends September 12th. Check OAG. It's been zeroed out after that date. The flight was doomed from the merger, and is better served through MIA (not implying that MIA is a better hub, which it isn't, they are just better at different things. MIA can never have the domestic feed that CLT has.)

Yes. RDULHR is the largest O/D market to Europe from NC (O/D numbers that are actually declining in the last several years in fact..), CLT still has a stronger overall O/D to Europe than RDU.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 16):
Nobody, for a moment, suggested that AA was somehow going to move its hub to RDU from CLT.

Ironically, there are several posters on Flyertalk that predict AA/US will do just that. I literally fell out of my chair when I read it.

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 14):
The Charlotte hub has a very safe future

Probably the nicest thing that you have ever posted regarding US Airways based topic....
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rutankrd
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 8:47 pm

Quoting AirbusGeek (Reply 15):
Firstly, the local market at CLT is larger than RDU so therefore CLT is a larger hub. The only reason this flight still exist is because AA has a contract with GlaxoSmithKline, if they didn't RDU-LHR wouldn't probably exist.

Long haul flights from Charlotte are safe, it would make much more sense to operate one flight from Charlotte, with lower costs than a double daily from somewhere like New York or Chicage!

And CLT-GIG does not end September 12th, but early January 2015.

Airbus geek have you comprehended what has been said by others and in regards to the RDU-LHR route the business contract and regional subsidy.

No one is suggesting RDU is anything of a AA/Oneworld Hub - this is unique route and its remaining because it makes AA money !

As for the ex US hubs the jury is out however the consensus is that Philadelphia may be the main beneficiary over Charlotte as the International transfer point of choice.

We have to wait a while to see if some of the Charlotte growth this year including the TALC flights to the likes of Manchester return.
 
MAH4546
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 9:00 pm

Quoting AirbusGeek (Reply 15):
And CLT-GIG does not end September 12th, but early January 2015.

Trying booking a non-stop flight on September 13th or beyond...

Quoting AirbusGeek (Reply 15):

Long haul flights from Charlotte are safe, it would make much more sense to operate one flight from Charlotte, with lower costs than a double daily from somewhere like New York or Chicago, with higher costs!

No, it doesn't, It makes a lot more sense to operate them from larger markets.

MIA is probably CLT's biggest threat to losing Europe service, though, not JFK and ORD. The substantially larger local market and much stronger feed that comes from Caribbean/LatAm far than makes up for the higher costs.
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AirbusGeek
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 9:07 pm

I would like to appoligise for not researching my facts probably. I have been very stressed recently and get aggitated at something which I think is incorrect. I would also like to appoligise for my rants, they can get out of hand sometimes.

I have taken a "chill pill" and it has helped.

And LAXDude, I do aggree with your post, some internationals flights are safe and others are not (LIS, BRU(Even I was shocked at those two)).

Once again I would like to appoligise and hope we can all get along with each other again! I am very very sorry. I hope you undestand.

And are you sure CLT-GIG ends September 12th? I try booking that flight on the 13th and I could!

AG

[Edited 2014-03-05 13:11:56]
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Cubsrule
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 9:08 pm

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 19):
MIA is probably CLT's biggest threat to losing Europe service, though, not JFK and ORD. The substantially larger local market and much stronger feed that comes from Caribbean/LatAm far than makes up for the higher costs.

I don't think another hub is the enemy as far as CLT's European service is concerned. Rather, it's the combined carrier's increased costs. AA isn't going to be able to profitably carry the summer vacation traffic to the likes of FCO and DUB over any hub. I expect CLT to keep 4-5 European flights (10w-2x LHR depending on season and gauge; CDG, MAD, FRA, maybe nothing else). That's nothing to sneeze at, for it's a comparable slate to what AA does ex-DFW, but it's also significantly fewer cities and flights than CLT sees now, especially in the summer.
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LAXdude1023
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 9:11 pm

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 19):
MIA is probably CLT's biggest threat to losing Europe service

Only as far as FCO is concerned. For the smaller markets, I dont think they will be shifted to MIA. If they are cancelled and arent shifted to JFK, they probably wont be flown at all.
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 10:27 pm

Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 13):
Now that the Northwest / Delta DC-9s have been retired, I think the future of this route is the most over discussed topic on ANet.

If you're referring to the endless speculation about CLT as a hub, then absolutely, assuredly, 100% yes.    I long for the days of endless speculation about PHX as a hub, which of course is definitely going to be eliminated. (THAT'S A JOKE, PEOPLE.)
 
MAH4546
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 10:34 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 22):
Only as far as FCO is concerned. For the smaller markets, I dont think they will be shifted to MIA. If they are cancelled and arent shifted to JFK, they probably wont be flown at all.

I don't mean the route will shift; I mean that the capacity MIA ads to the network largely eliminates the need for a lot of the routes, regardless if they have an MIA route.

That said, in addition to FCO, I would not be surprised if MAN gets an MIA flight before FCO.
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a380787
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 10:47 pm

Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 23):
I long for the days of endless speculation about PHX as a hub, which of course is definitely going to be eliminated. (THAT'S A JOKE, PEOPLE.)

There's a huge amount of self cannibalization in the new route structure.

6 hubs have European service that's more than LHR (JFK, PHL, ORD, DFW, CLT, MIA). Simply stealing traffic from each other.

DL has 3 (JFK, ATL, DTW), and UA has 3.5 (EWR, IAD, ORD, and the half that is IAH), but somehow AA/US has 6 and think that's efficient ?
 
commavia
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 10:56 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 25):
6 hubs have European service that's more than LHR (JFK, PHL, ORD, DFW, CLT, MIA). Simply stealing traffic from each other.

DL has 3 (JFK, ATL, DTW), and UA has 3.5 (EWR, IAD, ORD, and the half that is IAH), but somehow AA/US has 6 and think that's efficient ?
DL has more than 3 U.S. hubs/gateways with service to LHR and then some. You missed, at a minimum, MSP and SEA. For United, you also missed SFO and whatever the other half of IAH means - since IAH is clearly a UA hub, and clearly has service to multiple European points.

Nonetheless, the comparison is flawed, since LHR is only a true hub for AA's partner, not UA's and only barely DL's (VS offers minimal 2-way connectivity over LHR). The more apt comparison would be the number of DL hubs/gateways with service to European points outside CDG/AMS, and the number of UA hubs/gateways with service to European points outside FRA. And I suspect the whole thing is meaningless, anyway, since I don't think AA will have any trouble profitably filling lots of seats from all their U.S. gateways to Europe, since AA's U.S.-Europe hubs/gateways all serve distinctly different roles and purposes within the network and, with only a few relatively minor and, in my estimation, short-lived, exceptions, overlap little with each other when it comes to the Atlantic.

[Edited 2014-03-05 14:57:11]
 
a380787
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 11:06 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 26):
DL has more than 3 U.S. hubs/gateways with service to LHR and then some. You missed, at a minimum, MSP and SEA. For United, you also missed SFO and whatever the other half of IAH means - since IAH is clearly a UA hub, and clearly has service to multiple European points.

You're mis-reading what i'm saying. DL has 3 true gateways for TATL.

UA flies to CDG from SFO too but u won't classify that as TATL gateway by any stretch. IAH only has LHR/AMS outside of partner hubs, so that barely makes them a broad comprehensive gateway the way EWR or ORD is.

In PMUS, CLT-Europe was simply diversifying PHL and not putting eggs in one basket. Post merger, outside of LHR (and maybe MAD), I really don't see the point of CLT-Europe anymore. Nearly nothing it can do that can't already be handled by existing hubs.
 
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Wed Mar 05, 2014 11:35 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 27):
In PMUS, CLT-Europe was simply diversifying PHL and not putting eggs in one basket. Post merger, outside of LHR (and maybe MAD), I really don't see the point of CLT-Europe anymore. Nearly nothing it can do that can't already be handled by existing hubs.

We are basically in agreement on this point, but I think CDG (decently big market with historic AA strength) and FRA (strong, high-yielding local market from CLT and the southeast in general) can probably stick around.
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user444555
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Thu Mar 06, 2014 3:27 am

A friend who works for AA shared what he read in an online discussion with a route planning manager from AA. I know this is hearsay and I am not saying it is fact. He said that AA sounds very bullish on CLT, bullish on PHL, and not so bullish on JFK. I have no idea whether this is more for domestic or international service or what plans (if there are any plans) are in the works, but I guess as long as CLT's costs stay very low, the new AA will keep what they have.

I don't know what the draw is about PHL. I like going there and the airport is not bad, but I would think the costs are not low. Maybe it is just that it is less congested than JFK. Maybe AA has decided to let B6 and DL duke it out at JFK for a while, but I don't see AA shrinking in NYC by much. I think they will just try to hold on to what they have until the merger is done then take another look at NYC.

I did read that Parker said PMUS's PHL to Europe flights were among their most profitable, and as they about double PMAA's European destinations (not flights but destinations) I think they need to keep most of them. After the integration they will get a bigger share of the TATL JV revenue also.

Even if AA wanted to reopen a hub at RDU, which I don't think they do, there is not enough room. The last time I was there, DL and its commuter partners had taken over most of the terminal leaving AA a few gates at the end. I know WN has a different terminal but nowhere near the space for the ops that the new AA will have at CLT.

Thanks for the interesting discussion here.

[Edited 2014-03-05 19:37:30]
 
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Thu Mar 06, 2014 3:33 am

Quoting user444555 (Reply 29):
He said that AA sounds very bullish on CLT, bullish on PHL, and not so bullish on JFK. I have no idea whether this is more for domestic or international service or what (or if) there are any plans in the works, but I guess as long as CLT's costs stay very low,

I have said this before, and I will say it again. The BIG rumor at CLT is that Electrolux is really, really pushing for US/AA to start CLT-ARN Winter 2015 and is willing to give US/AA a revenue guarantee.
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Thu Mar 06, 2014 3:45 am

RDU-LHR going nowhere soon. Contract runs until 2016.

AA will shrink at RDU once merger is complete. CLT is just down the road so don't expect to see much expansion except for maybe a few key business routes. DCA, PHL, and JFK will be right sized due to overlapping on DCA and then PHL and JFK being used as international gateways. You don't need 10 flights to each.

RDU-LHR does not make money off of pax revenue. Cargo is what makes this flight money. It could go out empty with no pax and still make money. So after you factor in cargo any pax revenue is icing on the cake.

Three options post 2016 contract end. A) AA keeps flying the route. B) BA comes in and takeover the route with their own metal (this one i see as more of a possibility than some people think) or C) DL bids aggressively for the route and wins.

There's a lot of changes going on at RDU and the next few years will be very interesting as we watch AA and US merge. I've said it before and i'll say it again. RDU is about to be in the midst of a bloodbath between AA, DL, and WN. The consumers in this market will gain a lot as fares drop due to increased competition. May the battle begin.
 
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Thu Mar 06, 2014 4:43 am

Quoting cessna2 (Reply 31):
AA will shrink at RDU once merger is complete

I doubt it. RDU is down to hubs + LGA and DCA. Beyond the rationalisation of DCA, which is served by both AA and US, I don't think there will be any change at RDU. They might trim CLT slightly and add another flight to DFW and ORD (and maybe MIA), but that's it.

(before I get accused of hating on CLT, I'm not, it's just that at the moment US basically routes everyone through there while post-merger they can better distribute traffic throughout all the hubs)
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MAH4546
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Thu Mar 06, 2014 4:44 am

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 30):
The BIG rumor at CLT is that Electrolux is really, really pushing for US/AA to start CLT-ARN Winter 2015 and is willing to give US/AA a revenue guarantee.

And Genting wanted Malaysia Airlines to fly KUL-MIA and was ready to offer incentives. Lots of companies offer to throw money around for airline routes; most of the time it's not viable, like in this case.

Quoting cessna2 (Reply 31):
RDU-LHR does not make money off of pax revenue. Cargo is what makes this flight money. It could go out empty with no pax and still make money. So after you factor in cargo any pax revenue is icing on the cake.

It is impossible for a passenger flight to be profitable off just cargo revenue. That just doesn't happen. Biggest myth on A.net.
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Thu Mar 06, 2014 4:54 am

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 33):
And Genting wanted Malaysia Airlines to fly KUL-MIA and was ready to offer incentives. Lots of companies offer to throw money around for airline routes; most of the time it's not viable, like in this case.

I've heard this from SEVERAL people (Electrolux people, US people, CLT people) though so something is definitely up. Will someone fly CLT-ARN? Who knows, but last I heard was a 3-4x weekly service on a 763.
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Thu Mar 06, 2014 4:57 am

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 9):
Yes. If anything, the merger will help O&D on the RDU side as local passengers who flew US Airways from CLT will now have this option. Perhaps a return to the 777 (new 2 class version?) is in order?

As far as I understood it the only reason the 777 was on this route was in high season when the Dallas flights were both 777s. Since AA didn't have other 763 flights to RDU and because the flight was to LGW not LHR like the Dallas flights they used one of the Dallas flights as a way to get the plane through to Dallas for maintenance. i.e., during low season one of the Dallas flights was a 763, so the plane would rotate DFW-LGW-RDU-LGW-DFW. In high season no 763, so it was a 772 flight instead. Coach was almost always empty on the 772s.
 
MAH4546
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Thu Mar 06, 2014 4:59 am

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 34):
I've heard this from SEVERAL people (Electrolux people, US people, CLT people) though so something is definitely up. Will someone fly CLT-ARN? Who knows, but last I heard was a 3-4x weekly service on a 763.

CLT's concern needs to be how to convince US not to discontinue CLT-FCO/BRU/LIS/DUB/MAN/BCN.

I don't doubt you heard, but I do doubt US/AA is taking that joke seriously.
a.
 
user444555
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Thu Mar 06, 2014 5:14 am

Quoting dank (Reply 35):
As far as I understood it the only reason the 777 was on this route was in high season when the Dallas flights were both 777s. Since AA didn't have other 763 flights to RDU and because the flight was to LGW not LHR like the Dallas flights they used one of the Dallas flights as a way to get the plane through to Dallas for maintenance. i.e., during low season one of the Dallas flights was a 763, so the plane would rotate DFW-LGW-RDU-LGW-DFW. In high season no 763, so it was a 772 flight instead. Coach was almost always empty on the 772s.

The switch to LHR from LGW occurred about the same time for RDU and DFW flights as I recall. Until the open skies agreement took effect AA served LHR from BOS JFK MIA ORD and LAX but not DFW and RDU.
 
Flytravel
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Thu Mar 06, 2014 5:16 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 32):
I doubt it. RDU is down to hubs + LGA and DCA.

It lacks nonstop service to one US/AA hub that is PHX. I wonder if the AA loyalty, partly due to the value of the LHR service, might help AA on making this route work, if the combined AA is considering it. US by itself wasn't able to make it work.

Quoting cessna2 (Reply 31):
RDU is about to be in the midst of a bloodbath between AA, DL, and WN.

Has WN expanded in RDU with exception of the FL flights to ATL? It deleted PHL-RDU which also affected RDU and decided to stay away from linking RDU to SFO or LAX, and let UA with limited presence in RDU go for RDU-SFO.

I figured WN was carrying more of the volume traffic while DL and AA were competing more for business travelers with direct service to NYC among other markets.

[Edited 2014-03-05 21:17:47]
 
cessna2
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Thu Mar 06, 2014 5:23 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 32):
I doubt it. RDU is down to hubs + LGA and DCA. Beyond the rationalisation of DCA, which is served by both AA and US, I don't think there will be any change at RDU. They might trim CLT slightly and add another flight to DFW and ORD (and maybe MIA), but that's it.

DCA will lose flights because of the overlap
PHL and JFK serve the same purpose
US can run 10 flights a day to PHL because its the main international hub for US
AA can run 10 flights a day to JFK because again its a major international connecting point for them.
After the merger don't expect to see 10 flights a day to PHL and JFK on AA
PHL will lose in favor of JFK since there is more O&D traffic on the NYC routes.
CLT may lose some flights in favor of DFW. DFW in my opinion will be a good East-West hub and CLT more of a North-South hub.
ORD should remain the same and well as LGA. But all in all there will be a flight reduction
 
dank
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Thu Mar 06, 2014 5:25 am

Quoting user444555 (Reply 37):
The switch to LHR from LGW occurred about the same time for RDU and DFW flights as I recall. Until the open skies agreement took effect AA served LHR from BOS JFK MIA ORD and LAX but not DFW and RD

correct. not quite clear in how my sentence structure was there... Like the DFW flights, the RDU flight was to LGW hence it relied on rotating with DFW flights and not LHR flights. Now that those flights all go to LHR there are other AA hubs that the 763 can be rotated with instead of just DFW. So AA can now do all year on a 763 instead of only part of the year when it had to be paired with a Dallas flight.
 
Womack17
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Thu Mar 06, 2014 7:23 am

Maybe I am not remembering correctly, but didn't AA allude to the fact that the 772 would be returning. Wasn't the 772 needed on longer routes/higher yields? I am sure I remember reading that on this forum

-Womack17
Oh how I miss Midway Airlines. A class act right to then end.
 
flyguy89
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Thu Mar 06, 2014 7:43 am

Quoting DeltaXNA (Thread starter):
Will they move the slot to CLT and just route passengers through there or do they intend to keep the nonstop from RDU?

As stated, it won't go anywhere, corporate contracts more or less guarantee its survival.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 30):
I have said this before, and I will say it again. The BIG rumor at CLT is that Electrolux is really, really pushing for US/AA to start CLT-ARN Winter 2015 and is willing to give US/AA a revenue guarantee.


In 2012/2013, CLT-ARN was between 5 and 6 PDEW, and with the loss of *A support on the ARN end, it's not a compelling proposition, especially if AA can make more than break even on other long hauls and better utilize the plane that would fly the route. Heck ARN only has links to Chicago and New York in all of North America, if it was ever going to work, it would have been when US was in *A. Who knows though, never say never in this industry.
 
LBA1432
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Thu Mar 06, 2014 8:46 am

While on the subject of routes and RDU, the airport yesterday posted a rather interesting post of their top non stop destinations in 2013 based on passengers per day each way. Figures are based from July 2012 - October 2013, its an interesting read, especially given 2 of the destinations were not on the list the year before!

http://rdublog.com/2014/03/05/rdus-top-non-stop-destinations-in-2013/

No LHR on the list but BOS is quite interesting. Are DL using RJ's on the route and B6 A320's? Anyone care to clarify the metal and number of flights per day to get numbers like that?

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 32):
B) BA comes in and takeover the route with their own metal (this one i see as more of a possibility than some people think) or C) DL bids aggressively for the route and wins.

I think the 787 could make BA a possibility, even without the onward connections with OneWorld when you get to America (lets face it, LHR - AUS has very little in terms of onward connections stateside and I think RDU has more than AUS even? Correct me if I'm wrong!) that aircraft is ideal for the route and similar to how it is for AA, it would be a lucrative business route for BA. I dont know about DL despite their large, almost focus city like presence at RDU. I'm surprised with their aggressive build up at SEA that we haven't seen a SEA - RDU announcement, maybe a bit more expansion in the domestic sphere.
 
vv701
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Thu Mar 06, 2014 12:02 pm

Quoting user444555 (Reply 37):
The switch to LHR from LGW occurred about the same time for RDU and DFW flights as I recall. Until the open skies agreement took effect AA served LHR from BOS JFK MIA ORD and LAX but not DFW and RDU.

The Bermuda 2 Agreement that was superseded by the Open Skies Agreement specified the US gateway cities that could be served from LHR. There were two listings, one for American operators, the other for British operators. They were slightly different. Neither list included DFW, RDU or, indeed, IAH.

BA 'got around' this restriction by operating LHR-ORD-IAH or LHR-PIT-IAH in order to attract oil company employees wanting to fly from IAH to the Middle East, Africa or Central Asia.

AA moved its DFW and RDU flights from LGW to LHR on 30 March 2008. This was the day the Open Skies agreement came into force.
 
B747forever
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Thu Mar 06, 2014 12:25 pm

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 42):
Heck ARN only has links to Chicago and New York in all of North America,

Not true anymore.

DY is flying ARN-JFK, ARN-LAX, ARN-FLL and will soon start ARN-OAK. Flights operating anywhere from 2 to 4 weekly.
Work Hard, Fly Right
 
CPDC10-30
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Thu Mar 06, 2014 1:24 pm

I have flown this route several times. The prices ex LHR are usually very expensive.
Immigration at RDU is much less hassle and friendlier than other airports in the USA, and it's very easy to get in and out of.

Back in August, I flew BLR-LHR-RDU-LHR-BLR, which was about £700 cheaper than my colleagues on the exact same flights LHR-RDU-LHR.
 
commavia
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Thu Mar 06, 2014 1:44 pm

Quoting cessna2 (Reply 31):
AA will shrink at RDU once merger is complete. CLT is just down the road so don't expect to see much expansion except for maybe a few key business routes. DCA, PHL, and JFK will be right sized due to overlapping on DCA and then PHL and JFK being used as international gateways. You don't need 10 flights to each.

I agree RDU will likely see a net reduction in frequency in coming years, but not necessarily in capacity. DCA will certainly be rationalized - I expect frequency will come down by at least 4-5 rotations simply as a virtue of 50-seaters drawing down. I think LGA and PHL will see a similar phenomenon. Beyond that, though, I actually think RDU could see some addition - BOS being the most glaringly obvious opportunity. Given the strength of the combined company at both ends, RDU-BOS is a route AA should be able to make work.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 34):
I've heard this from SEVERAL people (Electrolux people, US people, CLT people) though so something is definitely up. Will someone fly CLT-ARN? Who knows, but last I heard was a 3-4x weekly service on a 763.

Seems hard to imagine actually happening.

Quoting cessna2 (Reply 39):
PHL and JFK serve the same purpose
US can run 10 flights a day to PHL because its the main international hub for US
AA can run 10 flights a day to JFK because again its a major international connecting point for them.
After the merger don't expect to see 10 flights a day to PHL and JFK on AA

JFK doesn't see anywhere close to 10 daily flights now as it is, and certainly won't in the future. If you're referring to LGA, then yes, that route does see higher frequency, however that route does not in any way serve the "same purpose" as RDU-PHL. PHL is a hub, LGA is not. LGA is primarily focused on O&D and it's a market I fully expect AA to remain strong in given AA's historically strong presence at both ends of the route. I do agree that both of these markets are likely to see lower frequency in coming years, but I see that being driven far more by the drawdown of smaller RJs and natural upgauging that will occur across the network. I could see LGA going to all-CR7/E75, and I could also see PHL seeing more mainline.

Quoting dank (Reply 40):
Like the DFW flights, the RDU flight was to LGW hence it relied on rotating with DFW flights and not LHR flights. Now that those flights all go to LHR there are other AA hubs that the 763 can be rotated with instead of just DFW. So AA can now do all year on a 763 instead of only part of the year when it had to be paired with a Dallas flight.

  
 
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ERJ170
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Thu Mar 06, 2014 2:22 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 47):
I do agree that both of these markets are likely to see lower frequency in coming years, but I see that being driven far more by the drawdown of smaller RJs and natural upgauging that will occur across the network. I could see LGA going to all-CR7/E75, and I could also see PHL seeing more mainline

I do not see any changes going for from LGA. It's already flown by CR7s on AA and with US passengers now being able to fly the route from RDU.. It will be even more going on the route. AA currently flies 7-8 daily depending on the year and it's CR7.

Delta currently flies 8 daily all CR7. If anything, AA will upguage the flights to perhaps a couple of mainline and CR7s if hte passenger count rises.

As far as JFK, yes.. AA only flies 4 daily as does DL and B6 flies 2 daily. I don't think we will see any decreases in that number either. These flight hook up to the international bank and won't be going anywhere soon..

DCA will have to be decreased but that depends on what aircraft they choose to use. If they do anything larger than a CRJ/ERJ.. that will require gate space that, honestly, they just don't have.. so if they go from 14 ERJ/CRJ to say 8 E75/CR7.. they are going to have to find a gate to handle it because the current gates are already at capacity. The only option is to convert the AA RJ gates to be able to handle larger RJ/mainline and if that's the case, that's what will happen to RDU and perhaps BNA.

Lastly, LHR isn't going anywhere.. It won't be moved to CLT. I won't be cut because AA absolutely knows a red widget is on the edge of the runway ready to pounce. The route will be status quo until it's time to renegotiate for the contract. Delta WILL be bringing their A game and offering more than just LHR, btw.. I'm just saying..

What the future holds for RDU will be interesting but it can't be ignored. AA is not that blind and neither is Parker. Remember, he is all about as much revenue as possible and he's not going to let this get away if he can help it.

That's all I got to say about this..
Aiming High and going far..
 
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casinterest
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RE: Future Of RDU-LHR For AA?

Thu Mar 06, 2014 3:20 pm

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 48):
I do not see any changes going for from LGA. It's already flown by CR7s on AA and with US passengers now being able to fly the route from RDU.. It will be even more going on the route. AA currently flies 7-8 daily depending on the year and it's CR7.
http://rdublog.com/2014/03/05/rdus-top-non-stop-destinations-in-2013/

Interesting top 10 NS list from RDU's site. LGA is the top destination with over 600 passengers daily each way.


What is interesting on this list is that Dallas is not on this list. There is a lot of travel between RDU and DFW. However in my case when I have to make the trip I usually stop in Atlanta or Charlotte due to costs. It will be interesting to see if the combines airline makes the trip more feasible or not.
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