MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 2

LTC8K6 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:14 am

Quoting tonytifao (Reply 150):
How is the location of the crash identified? Beacon data or actual visual sing of debris?

I believe it was reported as radar data from a military base.

Starlionblue · Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:16 am

Quoting PITrules (Reply 71):

Quoting kiwiinoz,previous thread:
I don't know why people get upset about all the speculation. This is a site of aviation enthusiasts. We are not CNN. We are not accountable to fact check everything we say.i think it is perfectly normal for a group like this to bounce around all sorts of theories, (as enthusiasts on any topic would do)

The thing is, right or wrong this website has actually become a pretty common 'go-to' source for the media when events like this first break. For that reason I think we should do without the wild theories and keep things within educated analysis. At least for the first few hours or days of the event.

To quote Gonzalo's excellent post from a few years ago from: TK B738 Crash At Amsterdam - Part 5 (by WILCO737 Feb 25 2009 in Civil Aviation)

Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 19):
Hi Everybody. After reading almost every post since thread Nº 1, sadly i have to say some of the members here have a wrong idea about the purpose of the forums here in A.net. Some people seems to hate any form of speculation and exchange of ideas...looks like the site has the responsability of release in the next days the final report of the accident and write the recomedations instead the Safety Board of the country where the accident happened. With all the respect you deserve , the whole concept of this forums, is the mutual exchange of information, ideas, speculation, people making questions, other people giving answers to those questions....that's the final purpose of any "Discussion Forum", of any kind, of any site....

I'll think most of us, pilots or not, industry workers or not, even simply aviation enthusiasts, we all already know this : The real causes of any accident, usually take months, even years before a final conclusion, supported by demonstrated facts, Blackboxes reading, and even more, sometimes ( sadly ), with all the technology we have today, a final conclusion is never founded.
Knowing that, why is so tasteless make assumptions ? why somebody can not have a theory of what happened and share with the rest of us ? Again, with all the respect, If you want only demonstrated facts, expect the 12, or 24, or 36 months, and read the Final report of the Safety Board. In the mean time, let us to talk, in a friendly way, in the A.net forums. Thank you.

Quoting holzmann (Reply 84):

Quoting SQ452 (Reply 83):
This is starting to feel eerily reminiscent of the AF447 crash off Brazil. Hoping for the best and a positive outcome but it is unfortunately not looking good right now.

Yes but AF447 flew into one heck of a storm. I think the weather at least appeared clear in this case.

Indeed. It is not the storm season in these parts for a few more months anyway.

Quoting 757223 (Reply 88):

It looks to me as if the reported location is in the vicinity of where FlightRadar24 stopped showing a return. Since this type of website uses ACARS data (I believe), having something there one minute and then gone the next leads me to believe that something sudden and drastic happened to stop the data from transmitting.

AFAIK they get transponder data Mode C and S data, not ACARS data.

Quoting dirktraveller (Reply 90):
Taking into account that statement by the Vietnamese navy is correct, who would be leading the investigation into this accident?

Will it be the Vietnamese or Malaysian aviation safety organisation? I would presume that Boeing and NTSB will assist the investigation process since it involved a boeing-made airframe, and I'm not sure if the Chinese would be participating since the most passengers on board were Chinese nationals?

Depends where exactly it crashed, Vietnamese or Malaysian waters. Lead is always the country where the plane crashed unless it crashed in international waters.

Quoting holzmann (Reply 103):
So what is the status of this AC pitot tubes being heated? These had not been installed on AF447.

Pilot tubes on airliners are always heated. The ones on AF447 malfunctioned and that problem has been rectified.

Quoting KFlyer (Reply 147):

Do we have really clarified the location where the a/c went missing? As per FR24 data, this would be around 40 mins from KUL, likely somewhere near waypoint IGARI. But multiple news reports indicate this was two hours away from KUL.

Two hours flight as it flew perhaps. However the two hours figure seems to be from earlier reports.

KC135Hydraulics · Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:17 am

Quoting SQ452 (Reply 149):
The parallel I drew with AF447 was that this flight just 'vanished' mid-flight; we of course won't know the reasons for MH370 disappearing for some time I'd imagine (search and rescue, recovery and investigation will all take time), but the question I have is has there been any instances where the Pitot heating system failed on Boeing aircraft and in particular the 777?

I'm sure that it has. Most systems will eventually fail for any reason after a given amount of time. The difference is, I doubt we'll find an incident whose direct cause could be contributed to a pitot heat failure like the one that occured on AF 447.

laxboeingman · Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:19 am

Quoting SQ452 (Reply 149):
This plane has a truly remarkable safety record when you think about it; it has been in service for 20 or so years and only suffered 3 hull losses before this incident, and only 3 fatalities associated with any incidents before today. Something must have gone terribly wrong enroute and we can all only speculate at this point.

I was just thinking that unfortunately, something must have gone very, very bad must have happened because 777s don't just fall out of the sky like that.

Do you think the e/q just - literally - dropped or do you think it would have slowed down while moving forward, like a normal landing, but because of the force of impact, it crashed into the ocean?

Quoting SQ452 (Reply 149):
we of course won't know the reasons for MH370 disappearing for some time I'd imagine (search and rescue, recovery and investigation will all take time)

Will the black boxes even be found, so we can know what happened? If they are not found, we will never know.

Starlionblue · Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:20 am

Quoting SQ452 (Reply 149):
The parallel I drew with AF447 was that this flight just 'vanished' mid-flight; we of course won't know the reasons for MH370 disappearing for some time I'd imagine (search and rescue, recovery and investigation will all take time), but the question I have is has there been any instances where the Pitot heating system failed on Boeing aircraft and in particular the 777?

Pitot systems do fail from time to time but two things are worth remembering in context:
- There are at least three independent air data systems on large airliners. The likelihood of them all failing is infinitesimal.
- Even without valid speed data, AF447 would have landed safely if the pilots had followed the checklist written for just such a situation. The pitots were out for less than a minute. In fact, dozens of A330 flights had had similar problems and landed safely. To quote SlamClick: Basic pitch and power, how many times does it have to save your life before you value it?

9V-SPJ · Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:25 am

Flightradar24 uses ADS-B data which is the most "real-time" position of the aircraft since aircraft state data is reported by the aircraft itself, and because there are quite a few listener stations in the area, I would assume it to be very accurate.

flyingbird · Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:25 am

Quoting KFlyer (Reply 146):
Do we have really clarified the location where the a/c went missing? As per FR24 data, this would be around 40 mins from KUL, likely somewhere near waypoint IGARI. But multiple news reports indicate this was two hours away from KUL.

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/442171910361976832

#MH370 disappeared from radar after 40 minutes and not 2 hours as media has been reporting. Flightradar24 showed correct position 4 h ago.

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/442145510615289856

There is no doubt that the last reported position of #MH370 is about 150 km north east of Kuala Terengganu. pic.twitter.com/8YH1bL8iBD

laxboeingman · Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:28 am

Do we know if the e/q squawked something unusual?

flood · Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:29 am

Quoting KFlyer (Reply 147):
Do we have really clarified the location where the a/c went missing?

A lot of conflicting reports, but the last transponder position as reported by FR24 (pin) is only roughly 60 miles (yellow line) from the location as reported by the Vietnamese Navy (according to Yahoo) 153 miles south of Phu Quoc (red line).

laxboeingman · Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:32 am

Live: @HishammuddinH2O on #MH370 Incident - confirms the Malaysia has activated all its agencies to work together on the S&R rescue mission
— Malaysia Airports (@MY_Airports) MY_Airports/statuses/442185500636348416">March 8, 2014

async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8">>

Bruce · Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:33 am

I realize its speculation but I'm going to put this out there. I think it was sabotage. The plane simply vanished during a level and routine part of the flight in fairly calm airspace. Also keep in mind the ETOPS system redundancy, if they had an engine or electric bus go out they would not have vanished. The 777 is a good plane. I can't think of any other reason the ELT beacon would not have gone off other than it was suddenly and violently ripped apart.

I certainly hope the black boxes are easier to find than AF447.

UA787DEN · Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:35 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 157):
Do we know if the e/q squawked something unusual?

It didn't, which is inreresting.

757223 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:35 am

Quoting flood (Reply 158):
A lot of conflicting reports, but the last transponder position as reported by FR24 (pin) is only roughly 60 miles (yellow line) from the location as reported by the Vietnamese Navy (according to Yahoo) 153 miles south of Phu Quoc (red line)

I saw another report that said 153 NM South of Tho Chu Island, which is even closer to your yellow pin, flood.

kl692 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:36 am

Malaysia Airlines plane crashes in South China Sea with 239 people aboard: report

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...lines-flight-idUSBREA2701720140308

Soo Sad

laxboeingman · Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:37 am

"06:26 GMT - Ships sent - Faridah Shuib, a spokeswoman for the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency says Malaysian authorities have dispatched a plane, two helicopters and four vessels to search seas off its east coast in the South China Sea.
The Philippines says it is sending three navy patrol boats and a surveillance plane to help efforts.
06:24 GMT - No warning - The airline has said the plane relayed no distress signal or other indications of trouble."

http://my.news.yahoo.com/malaysian-a...-flight-live-report-050312770.html

Amwest2United · Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:39 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 159):
I certainly hope the black boxes are easier to find than AF447

Gulf of Thailand is on average 148ft deep, max is 260ft, should make it much easier to find the black boxes

KFlyer · Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:43 am

MH press conference just confirmed the last known location as being closer to the area reported by flightradar24.

hb88 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:44 am

The only quasi reliable information I can see in all the reports is the position and the report that the a/c lost height rapidly and changed track from 028 to 333 deg. To me this indicates some type of rapid decompression event coupled with the PF changing course from something near their original track to another, possibly attempting to head to nearest landfall. This could be consistent with an inflight emergency requiring an immediate landing. I guess we'll find out soon enough.

UA787DEN · Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:44 am

Quoting Bruce (Reply 160):
I certainly hope the black boxes are easier to find than AF447.

The Gulf of Thailand has a maximum depth of only 260 ft/80 m so it shouldn't be as hard to find as AF 447. The suspected crash site is somewhere in the vicinity of the Gulf of Thailand and the nearby South China Sea.

ryu2 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:47 am

Some of these things don't line up. MAS said they lost contact with Subang (guessing they mean Lumpur) Control 2 hours after takeoff. At that time, they should be long been handed over to Ho Chi Minh and in Vietnamese airspace, and not under Malaysian ATC control anymore.

If they had crashed at the point that FR24 or the place that Vietnamese navy was reporting (around waypoints IGARI or BITOD), then that should have been no more than 45 minutes flight time from KUL.

[Edited 2014-03-07 22:49:46]

haynflyer · Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:50 am

9:02PM: Vietnamese Navy Admiral Ngo Van Phat confirms MH370 has crashed into the Gulf of Thailand 153 miles off of Thu Cho Island.

Source:
http://webcache.googleusercontent.co...sia-airlines-flight-mh370-missing/

Thu Cho (Thu Chao) islands are actually the small islands south west of the Vietnamese coast closer to KL than the map above shows.

UA787DEN · Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:50 am

Quoting ryu2 (Reply 169):
Some of these things don't line up.

MAS said in their most recent conference that the site of lost contact is near the one given by flightradar24.
So...if you discount the whole 2 hour number it works.

trent1000 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:51 am

I flew through nearby airspace Friday about 10-11 am local time on an A380 and we were all firmly strapped in from turbulence for at least 45 mins. The flight map showed a diversion, I assume to avoid worse weather conditions.

Starlionblue · Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:52 am

Quoting ryu2 (Reply 169):
Subang (guessing they mean Lumpur)

I'm pretty sure it is Subang Control Area.

Quoting ryu2 (Reply 169):
If they had crashed at the point that FR24 or the place that Vietnamese navy was reporting (around waypoints IGARI or BITOD), then that should have been no more than 45 minutes flight time from KUL.

That depends on the exact track. Flights can spend a lot of time getting "on course" while climbing out due to winds and traffic patterns.

poolkeeper · Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:54 am

I don't doubt they will locate the crash site rapidly. AF447 crashed outside radar/radio coverage and they had to search a huge area with great depths.
Here they had a radar tracking it and also the ADB-S position.

The "black box" should also transmit a radio signal which has limited reach under water but if they get close, they will find it fast.

DIRECTFLT · Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:00 am

Quoting Bruce (Reply 160):
I certainly hope the black boxes are easier to find than AF447.

Here is link to the NOAA depth chart for the Gulf of Thailand (Chart 93010)

http://www.charts.noaa.gov/NGAViewer/93010.shtml

airportugal310 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:02 am

Quoting DIRECTFLT (Reply 175):

It doesn't seem to work on my iPad. What is the depth in and around the area that we are talking about?

DIRECTFLT · Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:05 am

Quoting airportugal310 (Reply 176):

It doesn't seem to work on my iPad. What is the depth in and around the area that we are talking about?

55-67 Meters

The Page says Adobe Flash Player required to view the chart

[Edited 2014-03-07 23:08:07]

[Edited 2014-03-07 23:09:48]

7BOEING7 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:09 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 173):
Flights can spend a lot of time getting "on course" while climbing out due to winds and traffic patterns.

Define "a lot", shouldn't be more than 10 minutes in the worst case. Flight profile to altitude/position is very similar to prior flights.

Quoting poolkeeper (Reply 174):
The "black box" should also transmit a radio signal which has limited reach under water but if they get close, they will find it fast.

And it will be easier to pick up the big pieces off the bottom so if the cause is not apparent from the voice or data recorder the airplane structure may tell the story.

trex8 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:19 am

No distress signal so bomb or sudden catastrophic structural failure or another MH 124 flight control anomaly but this time it really stalled unlike in 2005.

sq452 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:19 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 153):
Do you think the e/q just - literally - dropped or do you think it would have slowed down while moving forward, like a normal landing, but because of the force of impact, it crashed into the ocean?

No idea. It's almost unheard of for a plane to just drop from the sky though.

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 153):
Will the black boxes even be found, so we can know what happened? If they are not found, we will never know.

I imagine they will be found. The Gulf of Thailand is relatively shallow as has been mentioned in previous posts. If they can find the boxes for the Air France crash, they should find these.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 154):
Pitot systems do fail from time to time but two things are worth remembering in context:
- There are at least three independent air data systems on large airliners. The likelihood of them all failing is infinitesimal.
- Even without valid speed data, AF447 would have landed safely if the pilots had followed the checklist written for just such a situation. The pitots were out for less than a minute. In fact, dozens of A330 flights had had similar problems and landed safely. To quote SlamClick: Basic pitch and power, how many times does it have to save your life before you value it?

Thank you for the excellent analysis Starlionblue.

Quoting Bruce (Reply 160):
I realize its speculation but I'm going to put this out there. I think it was sabotage. The plane simply vanished during a level and routine part of the flight in fairly calm airspace. Also keep in mind the ETOPS system redundancy, if they had an engine or electric bus go out they would not have vanished. The 777 is a good plane. I can't think of any other reason the ELT beacon would not have gone off other than it was suddenly and violently ripped apart.

This will most certainly be considered a possibility. Too little is known at the moment but investigators will be looking at every possible angle until enough evidence is gathered to rule something out. Terrorism, sabotage, pilot suicide, mechanical issues with the plane, you name it, will all be considered by the investigators I'd imagine. It is incredibly eery that the plane just "dropped" from radar and vanished completely.

Main objective now is to find the plane and search for survivors. Thoughts and prayers to all those with loved ones onboard.

zeke · Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:20 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 173):
I'm pretty sure it is Subang Control Area.

KL radar control to Singapore radar, Singapore area, then Vietnam.

sq452 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:29 am

Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 171):
MAS said in their most recent conference that the site of lost contact is near the one given by flightradar24.
So...if you discount the whole 2 hour number it works.

My gut tells me this is where the focus of the rescue mission should be concentrated. I'm not sure about the accuracy of the Vietnamese Navy reports so far as there seems to have been a lot of misinformation. China is sending two rescue ships to the South China Sea; I'd imagine the US may pitch in if they have Naval assets in the area. Time is of the essence at this moment.

pvjin · Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:30 am

What a horrible news, just woke up and saw this. I hope there are survivors but this looks bad...

NZ747 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:34 am

Very sad news. It does seem the search and rescue effort took a long time to initiate. Seems like MAS were planning for the best and not the worse, relying on unconfirmed reports the aircraft went to Nanming rather that putting together a swift search. If I had hundreds or aircraft at my disposal I would have at least sent some to the last known location and track to look.

Aesma · Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:41 am

Wow I'm just learning about this, it's terrible !

vegas005 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:42 am

Shocking to me it took so long to organize search and rescue. Prayers to everyone involved.

vegas005 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:47 am

From flightradar24 post on a Facebook:

A Boeing 777 from Malaysia Airlines has been missing between Malaysia and Vietnam for about 12 hours. Flight ‪#‎MH370‬ took off from Kuala Lumpur at 16:41 UTC time and disappeared from www.flightradar24.com at 17:20 UTC time.

At 23:24 UTC time Malaysia Airlines published a press release that aircraft has lost contact with ATC at 18:40 UTC (after 2 hours). This incorrect time report made media speculate all night about a crash in the jungle somewhere between Vietnam and China.

It took until about 03:00 UTC until a search and rescue operation was started in the area of Gulf of Thailand where Flightradar24 reported lost radar contact.

It feels very frustrating that the incorrect reports of lost contact after 2 hours has made that Flightradar24 data of lost contact after 40 minutes, has been ignored for so many hours.

Playback of flight MH370: http://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/mh370

fiscal · Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:57 am

Quoting trex8 (Reply 179):
or another MH 124 flight control anomaly

Wasn't that due to some tape over the pitot? If I remember Perth Control assisted them to land safely back in Perth.

trex8 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:57 am

Quoting NZ747 (Reply 184):

Very sad news. It does seem the search and rescue effort took a long time to initiate. Seems like MAS were planning for the best and not the worse, relying on unconfirmed reports the aircraft went to Nanming rather that putting together a swift search. If I had hundreds or aircraft at my disposal I would have at least sent some to the last known location and track to look.

MH don't have any SAR resources. The governments do. While one would hope an airline always knows where it's planes are they are dependent on ATC / radar resources which the airline does not control either.
The differences in time between last known flight position by various tracking systems and MHs announcements certainly need looking into. Neither MH or the Malaysian or Vietnamese authorities have " hundreds" of planes to send out to do a search even if they made every commercial airliner in the area do something. Plus the SAR capabilities of the relevant authorities are not exactly what one may characterize as the most robust in the world. Though they are also not close to non existent as in some other parts if the world!

Starlionblue · Sat Mar 08, 2014 8:01 am

Quoting poolkeeper (Reply 174):
The "black box" should also transmit a radio signal which has limited reach under water but if they get close, they will find it fast.

CVR plus DFDR plus at least one ELT should all be pinging if I'm not mistaken.

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 178):
Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 173):
Flights can spend a lot of time getting "on course" while climbing out due to winds and traffic patterns.

Define "a lot", shouldn't be more than 10 minutes in the worst case. Flight profile to altitude/position is very similar to prior flights.

You are indeed correct. 2 hours seems to be a red herring.

Quoting zeke (Reply 181):
Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 173):
I'm pretty sure it is Subang Control Area.

KL radar control to Singapore radar, Singapore area, then Vietnam.

Thanks zeke for the correction.

Quoting vegas005 (Reply 187):
feels very frustrating that the incorrect reports of lost contact after 2 hours has made that Flightradar24 data of lost contact after 40 minutes, has been ignored for so many hours.

I think Malaysian Airlines and government organizations have rightly been reticent to provide information until it has been confirmed, verified and double checked. It is frustrating for bystanders but IMHO it is much better practice than in many historic crashes where a government spokesman has "solved" the mystery before the wreckage has even been found.

trex8 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 8:02 am

Quoting fiscal (Reply 188):

Quoting trex8 (Reply 179):
or another MH 124 flight control anomaly

Wasn't that due to some tape over the pitot? If I remember Perth Control assisted them to land safely back in Perth.

No it was a software anomaly supposedly fixed
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...ory/0,20867,18592321-23349,00.html

Mir · Sat Mar 08, 2014 8:04 am

Quoting fiscal (Reply 188):
Quoting trex8 (Reply 179):
or another MH 124 flight control anomaly

Wasn't that due to some tape over the pitot?

No, that was a straight software glitch that allowed a failed attitude sensor to go unnoticed, and then to be used as a source of data when another attitude sensor failed (the plane has six of them, so lots of redundancy even with two failures, but a known bad source was allowed to be used - the problem has since been fixed).

-Mir

[Edited 2014-03-08 00:08:13]

Starlionblue · Sat Mar 08, 2014 8:08 am

Quoting trex8 (Reply 189):
Plus the SAR capabilities of the relevant authorities are not exactly what one may characterize as the most robust in the world. Though they are also not close to non existent as in some other parts if the world!

Maybe not the "most robust" in the world but I think you're underestimating the resources available in the area. You have Malaysia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Singapore the PRC, The Philippines, Indonesia and Brunei in what can reasonably be called the neighborhood. The amount of sea and air traffic in the area is very significant. While not perhaps "industrialized countries", Thailand and Malaysia are very far from being "third world countries". Vietnam is rapidly developing as well.

DALFA · Sat Mar 08, 2014 8:08 am

My goodness...Just woke up with this news. This must be the first 777 crash (besides the BA and OZ accidents) with so many fatalities

airportugal310 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 8:12 am

Interesting tidbit from Flightglobal...

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...200-had-uneventful-history-396793/

Says the aircraft had an uneventful history, but based on posts above it did have that one incident....

Kind of expected better from FG...

pilotaydin · Sat Mar 08, 2014 8:12 am

If this is not suicide then we will learn very new things that need to be amended in training syllabus forms...

I wrote my thesis on automation learning methods and failure training...many cases show a clash between what is practiced versus what happens

The tk af and oz flights all showed this....

If this accident follows them then we have work to do...ive been pushing for changes in conferences around the world, lt us see

RIP

LO231 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 8:13 am

OMG, I didnt read previous posts, hope they are ok and well...

Starlionblue · Sat Mar 08, 2014 8:14 am

Quoting LO231 (Reply 197):
OMG, I didnt read previous posts, hope they are ok and well...

Seems unlikely. And while it is a chore to read through 400+ posts, skimming them at least perhaps...

[Edited 2014-03-08 00:17:02]

YYZatcboy · Sat Mar 08, 2014 8:15 am

Quoting pilotaydin (Reply 196):
I wrote my thesis on automation learning methods and failure training...many cases show a clash between what is practiced versus what happens

Do you have this online anywhere? Sounds like it would be fascinating reading.

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