MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 2

LTC8K6 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 8:18 am

Quoting airportugal310 (Reply 195):
Kind of expected better from FG...

I agree with FG. I think the wingtip incident was minor and will play no part in this crash.

pilotaydin · Sat Mar 08, 2014 8:19 am

I can get you a version but I would have to take out the names of airlines because I promised them the data collected would be used for education only...if this doesnt bother you it would be my pleasure

YYZatcboy · Sat Mar 08, 2014 8:20 am

Quoting pilotaydin (Reply 201):
I can get you a version but I would have to take out the names of airlines because I promised them the data collected would be used for education only...if this doesnt bother you it would be my pleasure

I don't mind in the slightest. I'm sure I'm not the only one here who would be interested as well. If you prefer though you can use my a.net email or PM me. YYZatcboy (at) airliners.net

DALFA · Sat Mar 08, 2014 8:22 am

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 200):
I agree with FG. I think the wingtip incident was minor and will play no part in this crash.

Exactly, doesn't seem like something that would cause a major decompression or anything like that.

CanInelli · Sat Mar 08, 2014 8:23 am

Quoting pilotaydin (Reply 201):

pilotaydın, I would also love to read your thesis on "automation learning methods and failure training", would be glad if you can somehow upload or send an e-mail. My email is can (at) caninelli.com

Thanks

[Edited 2014-03-08 00:25:13]

airportugal310 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 8:25 am

Quoting DALFA (Reply 203):

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 200):

I don't think so either, but that's not the point

2008matt · Sat Mar 08, 2014 8:29 am

Was the aircraft out of radio contact at the time, or just 'lost' radio contact?

B747forever · Sat Mar 08, 2014 8:40 am

Just woke up to the terrible news. I am really shocked.

Quoting DALFA (Reply 194):
This must be the first 777 crash (besides the BA and OZ accidents) with so many fatalities

It will be the 2nd 777 crash with fatalities.

art · Sat Mar 08, 2014 8:50 am

Tragic. May all on board RIP.

If the aircraft came down in an area where the water depth is less than 100m recovery of the black boxes should be relatively easy.

LTC8K6 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 8:50 am

Quoting 2008matt (Reply 206):
Was the aircraft out of radio contact at the time, or just 'lost' radio contact?

Looks to have been well within range of many stations and listeners.

Prost · Sat Mar 08, 2014 8:56 am

First of all, my thoughts and prayers for those who may have perished, and to a peaceful resolution for the family and friends of those on board.

My question goes into the 'is it possible' tangent. Would an airliner be brought down from a random meteor strike? I'm not talking huge sci-fi movie meteor, but even a small piece of space rock or space junk. I know the odds of this happening are so small, I guess I'm just curious if any aircraft would be able to survive the impact.

axio · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:00 am

So the aircraft was within range of radio systems and transponder tracking, but did not issue any kind of mayday?

Are there things that can happen to an aircraft in flight that would cause such a catastrophic failure that no signal would be made? Or is this increasingly looking like being deliberate destruction of the aircraft (suicide, hijack, terrorism, etc)?

AR385 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:01 am

I´m watching the BBC live and the DW live and both say no one from any government, neither MH have confirmed the plane has crashed. They are still listing it as missing. I wonder why so much secrecy with that? No conspiracy theories on my part but I find it very strange. Are they waiting to inform the families first before declaring it a crash or something else is going on?

They had correspondents both at PEK and KUL and both said the same.

As someone upthread mentioned, someone in the ocean is bound to have witnessed the crash, at least heard it and seen a flash as that area is filled with fishing boats, so I find it strange no boat has reported anything. Or we don´t know.

It is a very strange situation, if indeed the plane has crashed as there is no confirmation of anything of the sort yet. But if it did, the list of causes for a Boeing 777 falling from the sky so quickly without any distressed signal and at cruise in clear weather is not very long. My first assumption would be terrorism related but in the later years that type of terrorism has been muslim originated and Malaysia is a muslim state.

Rather than the AF 447 accident this one reminds me more of the Air India 747 lost to a bomb off the Irish coast in 1985.

Until some official entity confirms the crash, I will remain with my fingers crossed.

[Edited 2014-03-08 01:10:24]

LTC8K6 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:03 am

UPDATE from Twitter/NBC: Jake Lichman ‏ Vietnam admiral says plane 'could have' crashed in Malaysian waters, denies reports quoting him saying the plane crashed Sky News Newsdesk Reuters: rescue official says Malaysian search ships see no immediate sign of wreckage in area where missing plane last made contact NBC News Malaysian Transport Minister Says No Sign of Plane Wreckage

LTC8K6 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:05 am

So we now have no idea where this 777 might be?

That's pretty frustrating.

Finn350 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:07 am

Quoting AR385 (Reply 212):
Until some official entity confirms the crash, I will remain with my fingers crossed.

Apparently there is the Vietnamese government announcement regarding military radar appearing to show the crash, but it seems that Malesia wants to independently confirm the crash by locating the wreck.

vegas005 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:07 am

Plane was 40 minutes into a flight and can't be found after 13+ hours?? Flightradar has the exact spot (more or less), what the heck is going on!!

LTC8K6 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:10 am

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 215):

Apparently there is the Vietnamese government announcement regarding military radar appearing to show the crash

That has apparently been retracted.

B747forever · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:11 am

Quoting vegas005 (Reply 216):
Plane was 40 minutes into a flight and can't be found after 13+ hours?? Flightradar has the exact spot (more or less), what the heck is going on!!

It was 2 hours into the flight when contact was lost.

Phen · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:11 am

Such terrible news to wake up to. I hope despite what we all suspect, that somehow all abroad are safe

Starlionblue · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:12 am

Quoting 2008matt (Reply 206):
Was the aircraft out of radio contact at the time, or just 'lost' radio contact?

From the FlightRadar24 data, it seems the transponder/ADS-B data stopped. There was most likely no constant voice contact.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 212):
I´m watching the BBC live and the DW live and both say no one from any government, neither MH have confirmed the plane has crashed. They are still listing it as missing. I wonder why so much secrecy with that? No conspiracy theories on my part but I find it very strange. Are they waiting to inform the families first before declaring it a crash or something else is going on?

IMHO it does not seem like secrecy, but like discretion and caution. I find this restraint admirable. Until such time as the aircraft can indisputably be listed as crashed, "missing" is an accurate description. Far better than all those accidents where the Mayor of Nowheresignificant has gone on TV before the wreckage has even been found and declared the "cause" of the accident.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 212):
It is a very strange situation, if indeed the plane has crashed as there is no confirmation of anything of the sort yet. But if it did, the list of causes for a Boeing 777 falling from the sky so quickly without any distressed signal and at cruise is not very long. My first assumption would be terrorism related but in the later years that type of terrorism has been muslim originated and Malaysia is a muslim state.

Terrorism is one possible cause, but there are a few others that come to mind. Decompression, structural failure, reverser deployment to name a few.

Quoting axio (Reply 211):

So the aircraft was within range of radio systems and transponder tracking, but did not issue any kind of mayday?

Are there things that can happen to an aircraft in flight that would cause such a catastrophic failure that no signal would be made? Or is this increasingly looking like being deliberate destruction of the aircraft (suicide, hijack, terrorism, etc)?

The pilot mantra in an emergency is, "aviate, navigate, communicate". Unlike in the movies, calling "Mayday, mayday, mayday", is far down the list of priorities. If the plane is plummeting from the sky, you work on recovery first, navigation second, and calling for help last. And if you're busy with recovery, you never get to the rest.

Looking at accidents like the Queens A300 disaster, a mayday call was never made because the pilots had more important things to do.

Things that can happen include decompression and structural failure. If you're still working the problem, you call for help when the situation has stabilized and not before unless you can spare the time to call.

DALFA · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:14 am

Quoting Airvan00 (Reply 142):

Is this actually something that could be manually switched off?

whiplash · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:16 am

I checked the data on MH370 on Flight aware.. It shows the aircraft cruising at 500 something miles per hour at 35,000 and then the data just stops.. Could it be that this is what actually happened, or the site has taken out the rest of the data?
Because if this is as sudden as it looks, could be sabotage, bombing, mid-air.. Basically anything that messed with the integrity of the airframe in a quick fashion..
RIP to all the passengers and crew and condolences to all their families..

Hoping this doesn't take as much time as AF447 to be solved..

Starlionblue · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:19 am

Quoting vegas005 (Reply 216):
Plane was 40 minutes into a flight and can't be found after 13+ hours?? Flightradar has the exact spot (more or less), what the heck is going on!!

There's no conspiracy. It's the ocean and that's a big place. There's no exact location but there is reasonable certainly of where approximately the aircraft is. While the aircraft would have been transmitting location data until that was cut off, from that point it could have glided or plummeted or been a cloud of debris for quite some unknown distance and direction until it hit the water.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 214):

So we now have no idea where this 777 might be?

That's pretty frustrating.

"No idea" is a pretty strong statement. There seems to be clarity on the approximate area.

Quoting DALFA (Reply 221):
Quoting Airvan00 (Reply 142):

Is this actually something that could be manually switched off?

In theory you could switch off the ELT (Emergency Locator Transmitter) but if the plane crashed the CVR and DFDR would still be pingining.

pvjin · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:24 am

Quoting AR385 (Reply 212):

If we look at more recent cases of a modern, state of art airliner disappearing from cruising altitude we eventually come to LAM 470... And then just a short while ago the Ethiopian incident, a pilot hijacking his own plane.

All this has happened in just 5 months... Really makes one to wonder whether this could be somehow related, I hope it isn't...

Quoting whiplash (Reply 222):

Flightradar lacks coverage in some areas, maybe the aircraft just left the coverage area.

[Edited 2014-03-08 01:31:01]

art · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:28 am

Quoting AR385 (Reply 212):
I´m watching the BBC live and the DW live and both say no one from any government, neither MH have confirmed the plane has crashed.

I think it is adequate to list it as missing until it is found or witnesses report it coming down. It is enough to know that the aircraft must have consumed all fuel loaded to be 100% sure that it cannot be in the air a certain number of hours after takeoff. It must be on the ground or in the sea.

Mir · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:32 am

Quoting Prost (Reply 210):
My question goes into the 'is it possible' tangent. Would an airliner be brought down from a random meteor strike? I'm not talking huge sci-fi movie meteor, but even a small piece of space rock or space junk. I know the odds of this happening are so small, I guess I'm just curious if any aircraft would be able to survive the impact.

It is likely that such an impact would not be survivable. However, it should also be said that the odds of such an impact are incredibly small. But yes, while it hasn't yet happened, there is no reason why it couldn't.

-Mir

LTC8K6 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:32 am

Quoting B747forever (Reply 218):
It was 2 hours into the flight when contact was lost.

Then we have no idea where the plane might be. 2 hours would put it well beyond FR24's last plot.

LTC8K6 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:35 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 223):

"No idea" is a pretty strong statement. There seems to be clarity on the approximate area.

That seems to have been retracted and contradicted.

FR24 plot apparently ends at 40 minutes into the flight, yet officially contact was lost 80 minutes later than that.

The Vietnam admiral's report has apparently been retracted.

It sounds sort of like he was looking at FR24's plot.

jc2354 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:38 am

They first thought the flight was 2 hours out, and now the thought is the flight was only 40 minutes out when contact was loss? To add to the theories, could the flight have been attempting to return to KUL?

817Dreamliiner · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:40 am

Flightradar have noted that this area is where they have very good coverage, and looking at this photo taken at 17 21 UTC it gives a good idea of where it went down approximately:

LTC8K6 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:41 am

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BiLh0L1CMAALcp-.jpg:large

https://twitter.com/AdrianNCF/status/442164000197853184/photo/1

That message seems to give roughly the FR24 plot as the place to search.

[Edited 2014-03-08 01:44:08]

Tobias2702 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:42 am

Quoting jc2354 (Reply 229):
They first thought the flight was 2 hours out, and now the thought is the flight was only 40 minutes out when contact was loss? To add to the theories, could the flight have been attempting to return to KUL?

As mentioned earlier,

Quoting pvjin (Reply 224):

Flightradar lacks coverage in some areas, maybe the aircraft just left the coverage area.

This might explain the discrepancy: The moment the flight was no longer tracked by flightradar24.com could be completely unrelated to the (presumed) crash.

Coal · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:44 am

Quoting jc2354 (Reply 229):
They first thought the flight was 2 hours out, and now the thought is the flight was only 40 minutes out

Well KUL to SGN is less than two hours flight, and if the flight went down between Malaysia and Vietnam in the Gulf of Thailand, then 40mins makes much more sense. I am also sure there would be a record of them going back if it had really lost contact after 2 hours.

I'm kinda curious and a bit hopeful: What would be the chances of a soft water landing assuming systems were OK, etc., and that they would have managed to deploy the rafts? Has there been a large, widebody airliner landing on water in the ocean in recent times in which people managed to deploy rafts and use them (this obviously excludes the US plane on the Hudson)?

Cheers
Coal

LTC8K6 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:46 am

http://www.fallingrain.com/waypoint/SN/IGARI.html

That looks like it matches the SAR message.

B747forever · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:46 am

Quoting jc2354 (Reply 229):
They first thought the flight was 2 hours out, and now the thought is the flight was only 40 minutes out when contact was loss?

Who say anything about 40 minutes? So far, from what I have read, the only known thing is that contact was lost 2 hours into the flight.

Also, some members here believe that flightaware/flightradar24 are 100% correct. The information from both websites is not always accurate, and there is no way one can draw any conclusions based on info from them.

Coal · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:48 am

http://my.news.yahoo.com/malaysia-ai...-plane-carrying-239-022306951.html

Quote:
At KLIA, the brother of a passenger says relatives are being told to bring a valid passport because they need to 'travel to the crash site'. Relatives have to be at KLIA before 6pm with valid passports for MAS to make 'travel arrangements'.

Cheers
Coal

Mir · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:49 am

Quoting 817Dreamliiner (Reply 230):
Flightradar have noted that this area is where they have very good coverage, and looking at this photo taken at 17 21 UTC it gives a good idea of where it went down approximately:

Remember that Flightradar is not actually radar - the positions it generates are based on broadcasts from the aircraft themselves. There are several limitations to this. One is that the receivers must have line of sight with the aircraft in order to receive their signals (this is why you don't see aircraft over the Atlantic or Pacific - the ones you do see are predicted positions of aircraft in FAA-controlled airspace). The second, and more important here, is that the aircraft must be broadcasting. If a serious electrical malfunction occurred that caused the airplane to stop broadcasting its position, Flightradar would not pick it up anymore, but the airplane might still be flying.

So we can consider the Flightradar image as the last known position, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it's close to where the airplane eventually ended up.

-Mir

Coal · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:49 am

Quoting B747forever (Reply 235):
Who say anything about 40 minutes? So far, from what I have read, the only known thing is that contact was lost 2 hours into the flight.

If by "into the flight" you mean after takeoff, then the a/c would have already been over land.

Cheers
Coal

Mortyman · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:52 am

This is just very sad to read about. I am hoping for a miracle, but it seems that it wont be very likely ...

liquidair · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:56 am

Quoting Prost (Reply 210):

probability of that happening is infinitely small, but there is a chance. And one day it will happen for certain. Whether that would take out an airliner depends on size, angle and of course, where it hits.

before giving out our RIPs, lets just hope that it's not the worse case scenario... Until wreckage or an official announcement is made, we can but pray.

LTC8K6 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:56 am

Why would the SAR message say to look near IGARI if that wasn't a good place to look?

B747forever · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:58 am

Quoting Coal (Reply 238):

Quoting B747forever (Reply 235):
Who say anything about 40 minutes? So far, from what I have read, the only known thing is that contact was lost 2 hours into the flight.

If by "into the flight" you mean after takeoff, then the a/c would have already been over land.

Quote from: http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20140308-0

"The Boeing 777-2H6ER took off from Kuala Lumpur Interational Airport's runway 32R at 00:41 and climbed to a cruising altitude of FL350.
Subang Air Traffic Control reported that it lost contact at 02.40 (local Malaysia time)"

pvjin · Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:59 am

Based on FR24 it looks like MH52 to Osaka flew over the same area where this flight disappeared just 20 minutes earlier, it didn't disappear from FR24 screen.

That would suggest the disappearance of MH370 from flightradar screen wasn't related to it getting out of coverage area. But then again if it was lost 2 hour into the flight that would have been a lot later than when it disappeared from FR24, the disappearance from FR24 could be just random anomaly, or maybe some of the information about disappearance time is false.

[Edited 2014-03-08 02:08:54]

flyingturtle · Sat Mar 08, 2014 10:00 am

The search is going on since... about 14 hours? And still no trace found?

I'm saddened and I'm shocked. And I don't believe I'll be able to work this weekend, re-checking a.net every 10 minutes or so...

I'm sure the lessons of AF447 have been learnt through and through. That intermittent pitot icing is not a danger (as about 30 jets, 330 and 777 alike, have suffered this, but most crews have chosen not to do anything - and nobody died). And that you can fly all the way down to the sea while still believing to climb.

If we rule out a bomb or hijacking, it somehow must be an accident we can learn a lot from.

RIP to the passengers and the crew members. Comfort to their families and friends.

David

Coal · Sat Mar 08, 2014 10:00 am

Quoting B747forever (Reply 242):
"The Boeing 777-2H6ER took off from Kuala Lumpur Interational Airport's runway 32R at 00:41 and climbed to a cruising altitude of FL350.
Subang Air Traffic Control reported that it lost contact at 02.40 (local Malaysia time)"

I'm just saying that after 2hrs it would already be over land. You call them and tell them they're looking in the wrong place then.

Cheers
Coal

hodja · Sat Mar 08, 2014 10:05 am

See "Background Story" section:

http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking...-missing-malaysia-airlines-plane-2

"1.22 am - The plane was meant to transfer to Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh air traffic control but never appeared."

I suspect 2:40am is the time Subang officially *reported* the aircraft missing - not the time contact was lost, which was at 1:22am, about 41 mins after departure.

456 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 10:05 am

Can someone explain what 'lost contact' means?
Was it during a conversation that the transmission ended all of a sudden
Or that after x hrs of flight, and when ATC wanted to contact them, they never answered that call?

*Still hoping...

AF185 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 10:09 am

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 244):

And only 1h or 2h to go before dusk.. Let's hope they can locate the a/c by then

B747forever · Sat Mar 08, 2014 10:09 am

Quoting Coal (Reply 245):
I'm just saying that after 2hrs it would already be over land. You call them and tell them they're looking in the wrong place then

I am just quoting what is out there.

Interestingly, the avherald has a different timeline:

"was enroute at FL350 about 120nm northeast of Kota Bharu (Malaysia) over the Gulf of Thailand in contact with Subang Center (Malaysia) just about to be handed off to Ho Chi Minh Air Traffic Control Center (Vietnam) when radar and radio contact was lost at about 01:22L (17:22Z Mar 7th). Subang Air Traffic Control Center officially told the airline at around 02:40L (18:40Z Mar 7th) that the aircraft was missing."

http://avherald.com/h?article=4710c69b&opt=0

So radar contact was indeed lost 40 minutes after take off, but was only reported over an hour and twenty minutes later.

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