MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 2

LTC8K6 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 4:28 am

When you look at the other flights, we only have data loss over China.

Are these tracks accurate, or have they simply been assumed?

holzmann · Sat Mar 08, 2014 4:30 am

Let's assume the first rule of a hijacking is to turn off the transponder. You could still see the AC on radar but it would not be immediately identifiable, right? What kind of flight radius would the AC have had with its last known position and fuel capacity? And what airports within that radius would have a long enough runway?

Miami · Sat Mar 08, 2014 4:32 am

China has sent 2 ships for search and rescue operations in South China Sea. Keep on praying!

At this point, sadly. Survival rate should be low.

If this is the case. May everyone on board MH flight 370 rest in peace.

Starlionblue · Sat Mar 08, 2014 4:33 am

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 50):
When you look at the other flights, we only have data loss over China.

Are these tracks accurate, or have they simply been assumed?

Other flights where?

FlightRadar24 and FlightAware "lose" planes all the time simply because radar coverage (and automated position report upload I suppose) does not extend over all areas, including large parts of China. If there is a track on FlightRadar24 or FlightAware it is actual.

The FlightRadar24 track seems to have the entire flight, and the site points out that coverage over the area is good. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=678741775498582&set=a.116008071771958.7699.111607872211978&type=1&theater

Full playback. Search for MAS370. http://www.flightradar24.com/2014-03-07/16:50/12x/6.18,102.93/6

tonytifao · Sat Mar 08, 2014 4:35 am

What countries have started the search?

EK413 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 4:36 am

I really am praying the aircraft is found with survivors onboard

My thoughts and prayers to all.
R.I.P.

EK413

dirktraveller · Sat Mar 08, 2014 4:37 am

First of all, all my thoughts and prayers goes with those aboard and their families.

I'm not speculating on any causes on why the aircraft goes missing, but somehow I don't feel we are dealing with act of terrrorism here.

Firstly, if someone had suggested the flight have been hijacked and landed somewhere that is within the hijackers control, surely they would have stated their demands right now, and they would make their demands being known by the world media, instead of being kept a low profile.

Second, if an on-board explosion did happen as a result of terrorism activities, someone would have claimed responsibility to the attack by now.

Despite the recent attack in Kunming, hypotethically speaking if those responsible were same group of perpetrators they would have a more concise statement attacking a Chinese-registered aircraft instead of an MH plane. Just my thoughts for now, we would see how this develop later on.

Starlionblue · Sat Mar 08, 2014 4:39 am

Quoting holzmann (Reply 51):

Let's assume the first rule of a hijacking is to turn off the transponder. You could still see the AC on radar but it would not be immediately identifiable, right? What kind of flight radius would the AC have had with its last known position and fuel capacity? And what airports within that radius would have a long enough runway?

Not necessarily viewable. You'd need primary radar for that and you might not have coverage over the ocean. The main point of transponders is to make flights trackable with only secondary radar.

Flight radius would be huge as it was bound for PEK. Just pulling some numbers out of the air, assuming 0.85 Mach it is just under 5 hours as the crow flies from KUL to PEK. (Of course, planes don't cruise at M0.85 the whole way but it is a place to start.) Given reserves etc, I'm guessing the plane would have been able to fly in excess of 6 more hours from the point of contact loss. Easily over 5000km. Note: very rough estimate!

The number of airports with a long enough runway in that radius is quite large. I'd guess at hundreds.

Quoting tonytifao (Reply 54):
What countries have started the search?

Presumably Malaysia and Vietnam since the contact loss was between the two countries, but could also be Cambodia and Thailand.

[Edited 2014-03-07 20:41:19]

[Edited 2014-03-07 20:46:36]

[Edited 2014-03-07 20:51:59]

KLAXAirport · Sat Mar 08, 2014 4:39 am

Thoughts and prayers to all those on board and the family of those effected by this tragedy.

RIP.

KLAXAirport

[Edited 2014-03-07 20:40:29]

nutsaboutplanes · Sat Mar 08, 2014 4:41 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 53):

Watching the play-back and seeing the return for 370 disappear is heartbreaking.

Starlionblue · Sat Mar 08, 2014 4:42 am

Presumably Malaysia and Vietnam

Quoting nutsaboutplanes (Reply 59):
Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 53):

Watching the play-back and seeing the return for 370 disappear is heartbreaking.

Indeed. Unfortunately I can't get it to slow from 12x so I can't see what happens in the last moments. It goes from cruise to 0ft instantly given the compression. Anyone know how to slow the playback?

LTC8K6 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 4:44 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 53):
Other flights where?

The previous Malaysian flights on the route. Their tracks are uninterrupted until they reach China.

I was wondering about the difference with this flight, which seems to lose data over Malaysia, whereas all the previous flights appear to at least reach China.

flymia · Sat Mar 08, 2014 4:46 am

Quoting holzmann (Reply 51):
Let's assume the first rule of a hijacking is to turn off the transponder. You could still see the AC on radar but it would not be immediately identifiable, right?

It is not easy. During 9/11 they had a very hard time finding some of the airplanes high jacked which transponders were turned off.

holzmann · Sat Mar 08, 2014 4:48 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 57):

Thanks. If we assume from the FlightAware map that signal was lost around coordinates 5°32'07.2"N 102°11'39.3"E and we assume the 5000km radius, then we have a map like this...

Starlionblue · Sat Mar 08, 2014 4:51 am

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 61):

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 53):
Other flights where?

The previous Malaysian flights on the route. Their tracks are uninterrupted until they reach China.

I was wondering about the difference with this flight, which seems to lose data over Malaysia, whereas all the previous flights appear to at least reach China.

Based on what we know, the data seems to indicate the transponder stopped functioning over the ocean between Malaysia and Vietnam. Other flights were "lost" by tracking sites over China probably because China either has no radar coverage there or does not upload data to FrightRadar24 et.al.

Quoting flymia (Reply 62):

Quoting holzmann (Reply 51):
Let's assume the first rule of a hijacking is to turn off the transponder. You could still see the AC on radar but it would not be immediately identifiable, right?

It is not easy. During 9/11 they had a very hard time finding some of the airplanes high jacked which transponders were turned off.

Indeed. Also a hijacking and continued flight would not fit the data which shows the plane at 0ft at the end of the track. It would show the last altitude report at cruise altitude. Then again that data is not validated as accurate.

rj777 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 4:51 am

I just hope that if it did go down, it went down over land.

kiwiinoz · Sat Mar 08, 2014 4:53 am

Apparently another press conference from MH about to happen.

hivue · Sat Mar 08, 2014 4:53 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 60):
Unfortunately I can't get it to slow from 12x

12x means each minute is represented by 5 seconds. It looks to me (from flightradar24 anyway) that contact with it was lost at high altitude.

mingocr83 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 4:53 am

EDIT THIS CAME JUST FEW SECS AGO

Yahoo singapore reports
Vietnam media quote Navy Admiral Ngo Van Phat saying military radar recorded #MH370 crashing into sea 153 miles south of Phu Quoc island

[Edited 2014-03-07 20:58:40]

[Edited 2014-03-07 21:01:42]

Starlionblue · Sat Mar 08, 2014 4:54 am

Quoting holzmann (Reply 63):
Thanks. If we assume from the FlightAware map that signal was lost around coordinates 5°32'07.2"N 102°11'39.3"E and we assume the 5000km radius, then we have a map like this...

We can probably assume that the FlightAware position is inaccurate since FlightRadar24 has good data for a much longer distance and it is known the flight lost contact after two hours. Last known position as shown here: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=678741775498582&set=a.116008071771958.7699.111607872211978&type=1&relevant_count=1

Airvan00 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 4:55 am

Quoting rj777 (Reply 65):

If it did go down over land, I think there would be reports by now.

PITrules · Sat Mar 08, 2014 4:57 am

Quoting kiwiinoz,previous thread:
I don't know why people get upset about all the speculation. This is a site of aviation enthusiasts. We are not CNN. We are not accountable to fact check everything we say.i think it is perfectly normal for a group like this to bounce around all sorts of theories, (as enthusiasts on any topic would do)

The thing is, right or wrong this website has actually become a pretty common 'go-to' source for the media when events like this first break. For that reason I think we should do without the wild theories and keep things within educated analysis. At least for the first few hours or days of the event.

manny · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:00 am

Again not sure if this is indeed accurate. Vietnamese Navy has confirmed plane crashed into sea.

http://my.news.yahoo.com/mas-aircraf...ssing--says-airline-023820132.html

KBUF · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:00 am

The Vietnamese Navy has, sadly, confirmed that the plane crashed into the ocean.

aussie18 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:00 am

http://my.news.yahoo.com/mas-aircraf...ssing--says-airline-023820132.html

This has just been posted.

illinicmi · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:01 am

Apparently Vietnamese media reporting their navy has confirmed it crashed into the sea. Take it as you will.

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/mas-aircraf...ssing--says-airline-023820132.html

LTC8K6 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:01 am

http://my.news.yahoo.com/mas-aircraf...ssing--says-airline-023820132.html

UPDATE [12:37]: Tuoi Tre, a leading daily in Vietnam, reports that the Vietnamese Navy has confirmed the plane crashed into the ocean. According to Navy Admiral Ngo Van Phat, Commander of the Region 5, military radar recorded that the plane crashed into the sea at a location 153 miles South of Phu Quoc island.

kiwiinoz · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:02 am

Quoting PITrules (Reply 71):

But it's then their job, (the media) to qualify what they report. It's certainly not our job.

MH just held their press conference but as far as I could tell, there was no new info.

[Edited 2014-03-07 21:05:37]

Joshu · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:02 am

News sources now reporting it crashed into the sea:

Quote:
UPDATE [12:37]: Tuoi Tre, a leading daily in Vietnam, reports that the Vietnamese Navy has confirmed the plane crashed into the ocean. According to Navy Admiral Ngo Van Phat, Commander of the Region 5, military radar recorded that the plane crashed into the sea at a location 153 miles South of Phu Quoc island.

Link:
http://my.news.yahoo.com/mas-aircraf...ssing--says-airline-023820132.html

richierich · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:04 am

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 31):
And now other people are saying this incident reminds them of AF447... both theories are statistically likely to be wrong.

Agreed.
As I write this, the only similarity is that the MH aircraft is missing just as AF's was - until it was found!

Quoting Miami (Reply 42):
Signal of the 777 with 227 passengers and 12 crew members on board has been detected at some 120 nautical miles southwest of Vietnam's southernmost Ca Mau province.

Not good.

Chaostheory · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:04 am

Quoting zeke (Reply 14):
Normally heading out of KL on that route you are kept low as the outbound track crosses the busy Singapore inbound routes and the Bangkok Singapore route. You go from KL control to a Singapore radar on VHF, them as you get further out transfer to Singapore on datalink. Then transfer to Vietnam on datalink, often after transfer from Singapore to Vietnam you are initially out of VHF range.

They should have a good idea of the location.

Which high altitude airways is the flight likely to use?

LTC8K6 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:04 am

http://tuoitrenews.vn/society/18157/...e-has-not-entered-vn-airspace-caav

The Malaysia Airlines flight carrying 239 people from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing Saturday crashed off Vietnam’s Tho Chu Island, northwest off the country’s southernmost Cape Ca Mau, the Vietnamese High Command of Navy announced.

According to a High Command of Navy statement, the plane went down at the waters between Vietnam and Malaysia, some 153 nautical miles (300km) off Tho Chu Island in Kien Giang Province.

LTC8K6 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:05 am

Well, we didn't want to hear that. Now we have a mystery to think about.

My condolences to the families.

[Edited 2014-03-07 21:06:46]

sq452 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:06 am

This is starting to feel eerily reminiscent of the AF447 crash off Brazil. Hoping for the best and a positive outcome but it is unfortunately not looking good right now.

Thoughts and prayers are with the families at this moment.

holzmann · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:08 am

Quoting SQ452 (Reply 83):
This is starting to feel eerily reminiscent of the AF447 crash off Brazil. Hoping for the best and a positive outcome but it is unfortunately not looking good right now.

Yes but AF447 flew into one heck of a storm. I think the weather at least appeared clear in this case.

damirc · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:08 am

Odd. The point 153 miles south of Pho Quoc is 360 miles from KUL. 2 hours flight time does not really fit ...

D.

Stackhouse007 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:09 am

Well since its confirmed to have crashed into the sea and they have sent rescue boats towards that location, how long will it take them to reach that spot?

illinicmi · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:11 am

Quoting damirc (Reply 85):
Odd. The point 153 miles south of Pho Quoc is 360 miles from KUL. 2 hours flight time does not really fit ...

I thought this as well. Seems like one piece of info is wrong. We'll know which soon enough.

757223 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:12 am

It looks to me as if the reported location is in the vicinity of where FlightRadar24 stopped showing a return. Since this type of website uses ACARS data (I believe), having something there one minute and then gone the next leads me to believe that something sudden and drastic happened to stop the data from transmitting.

turjo101 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:12 am

timeline does not make sense...

Should the plane not have been past the Gulf of Thailand- if in flight for 2 hours out of KUL?!?

dirktraveller · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:14 am

Quoting manny (Reply 72):
The Vietnamese Navy has, sadly, confirmed that the plane crashed into the ocean.

Taking into account that statement by the Vietnamese navy is correct, who would be leading the investigation into this accident?

Will it be the Vietnamese or Malaysian aviation safety organisation? I would presume that Boeing and NTSB will assist the investigation process since it involved a boeing-made airframe, and I'm not sure if the Chinese would be participating since the most passengers on board were Chinese nationals?

BoeingVista · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:14 am

Quoting holzmann (Reply 84):
Yes but AF447 flew into one heck of a storm.

Not really no.

Quoting damirc (Reply 85):
Odd. The point 153 miles south of Pho Quoc is 360 miles from KUL. 2 hours flight time does not really fit ...

Yup, this does not fot the information already released.

Tigerguy · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:16 am

Any reports of floating debris yet, or has it just been the military radar data so far?

LTC8K6 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:16 am

We have 153 miles off of Tho Chu.

and

153 miles South of Pho Quoc.

Reported so far.

spacecadet · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:17 am

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 91):
Not really no.

It flew into a storm that caused high altitude pitot tube icing, which was the start of the incident. Doesn't seem like that would be a factor here.

LTC8K6 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:18 am

Must be 153 miles south of Phu Quoc and near Tho Chu?

[Edited 2014-03-07 21:21:12]

hivue · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:18 am

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 91):
Quoting damirc (Reply 85):Odd. The point 153 miles south of Pho Quoc is 360 miles from KUL. 2 hours flight time does not really fit ...

Yup, this does not fot the information already released.

However, the reports also say:

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 81):
northwest off the country’s southernmost Cape Ca Mau

That looks like more than 400 miles from KUL to me. Also north of where the flightradar24 information ceases.

laxboeingman · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:22 am

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 81):
According to a High Command of Navy statement, the plane went down at the waters between Vietnam and Malaysia, some 153 nautical miles (300km) off Tho Chu Island in Kien Giang Province.

How would they know that?

It seems like - from the GIF - that there was some moisture, but that shouldn't have made it crash. Could there have possibly been a fuel leak or an issue that prevented fuel from reaching the engines, therefore causing the e/q to come right out of the sky?

Do you think the plane would be sticking out or is there probable cause to think it - God forbid - sunk? If they latter, do you think it could be spotted?

My condolences to the families of the victims.

KBUF · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:22 am

Emergency message sent to all vessels in the area:

TwoFourLeft · Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:23 am

In just playing around with the ruler in Google Earth, if you were to draw a straight line from Kuala Lumpur to Phnom Penh, it looks like the crash site is about halfway between those two points.

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