MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 3

philask · Sat Mar 08, 2014 12:24 pm

Quoting horstroad (Reply 48):
what if the repaired wing tip had failed? the repair is pretty close to the r/h outboard aileron. would such a scenario occupy the crew enough to not be able to send an emergency message?

Unlikely, and even if it did there would be ACARS/CPDLC.

BLRAviation · Sat Mar 08, 2014 12:24 pm

MH has released the passenger and crew manifest with names, citizenship and age. I have posted it on Bangalore Aviation but cannot post the link as A.net rules (though I agree with the rules). Just in case some one would like to look up the names. I did not want to load the forum with 239 names. In case the mods opine, I should post the names on A.net, I will do it.

My prayers are with the families.

[Edited 2014-03-08 04:27:54]

by738 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 12:24 pm

Quoting horstroad (Reply 48):
would such a scenario occupy the crew enough to not be able to send an emergency message?

I personally dont think so, but who knows. Would that be enough to bring down a 777?

tonioli · Sat Mar 08, 2014 12:24 pm

CNN reporting that vietnamese aircraft spoted liquid and rubbish

rfields5421 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 12:33 pm

Quoting B747forever (Reply 20):
With ELT shouldnt they have an idea of where the wreckage is? Unless it was a sudden and immediate in air disintegration, shouldnt the ELT work?

The ELT, if the aircraft was equipped with them, can fail to activate for several reasons. It is unusual but not extremely rare for a crashed aircraft ELT to not function.

Quoting Ogre727 (Reply 23):
Well why does it remind you od AF447?

1. Aircraft missing with no call for assistance
2. Confusion over the probable last reported contact position
3. Confusion over which ATC sector was responsible for the aircraft
4. Endless shock and amazement on A-Net that an aircraft can disappear and not be found quickly.

We do see from the lessons of AF447 that the missing aircraft notifications came more quickly. That authorities are mobilizing to search.

But as mentioned several times - the ocean is a very, very big place. Even with the "1000 fishermen" mentioned above - the vast majority of the ocean is not under observation of people.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 38):
almost any crew when faced with an imminent crash is likely to send out a distress message.

Are we sure the aircraft was still in VHF range, or was using HF. Even today, establishing an HF communication can take time, and attention away from working a problem on an aircraft.

Quoting SKAirbus (Reply 40):
This may be a silly question, but if the aircraft was hijacked, could it be possible to turn off the transponder and to lose track of the aircraft? Thus allowing the aircraft to be diverted elsewhere undetected... or would it still be visible?

A transponder can be turned off. If the aircraft is in radar contact, and the ATC is looking for the aircraft - they can see a primary return most of the time.

An aircraft could be diverted off course, and as long as it doesn't enter any of several security zones in the region - it could 'sneak in' without being noticed by ATC. Though there are several areas in the region when military ATC is very vigilant about watching for non-transponder aircraft intrusions.

However as recently happened in the United States, a small GA aircraft crossed the US border over the Great Lakes and flew undetected all the way to the middile of Tennessee without being detected. It even crashed on a commercial airport property, and due to very dense fog that night the wreckage was not noticed for several hours.

ltbewr · Sat Mar 08, 2014 12:36 pm

Does this region where this a/c became missing, only a few degrees north of the equator, have issues similar to other areas at or near the equator, over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans ? My thought is if it was subject to similar high air currents and issues of stability of them found in other equatorial regions.

JetBuddy · Sat Mar 08, 2014 12:36 pm

Quoting B747forever (Reply 33):
Is it really such a rare occurrence that people travel with false documents, that it can be related to the direct cause of the crash?

Yes, definitely.

SEPilot · Sat Mar 08, 2014 12:39 pm

Quoting horstroad (Reply 48):
what if the repaired wing tip had failed? the repair is pretty close to the r/h outboard aileron. would such a scenario occupy the crew enough to not be able to send an emergency message?

I doubt very much that even if the wing broke off at the point of damage that it would have brought the plane down. The aileron would have still been there, and many planes have landed safely with more damage to the wing than that.

s5daw · Sat Mar 08, 2014 12:41 pm

Some reports on twitter suggest that due to the nightfall the search has been called off until tomorrow.

Poor relatives. The uncertainty could be harder to cope with than knowing somebody is gone. Let them find peace.

KarelXWB · Sat Mar 08, 2014 12:42 pm

spacecadet · Sat Mar 08, 2014 12:45 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 38):
To the best of my knowledge the only major crash where an airliner fell out of the sky at cruise without sending a distress message that was NOT an onboard explosion was AF447

None of the Comets that crashed ever sent distress signals. That was a long time ago and obviously the 777's been flying long enough that we'd know if it had some sort of design flaw, but there is always the possibility that there was some structural problem unique to this plane.

"At cruise" is putting a pretty fine point on it anyway. That would exclude something like TWA 800, even though I can't really think of a reason why you wouldn't at least think about that. Aircraft are carrying around combustible fuel. It's not supposed to be able to ignite in a tank, but we didn't think it could before TWA 800 either. So who knows.

The false passport story is concerning, though. China has had its share of terrorism, including an attack at a train station just a week or two ago. It would seem a little odd to target a Malaysian Airlines flight rather than a domestic Chinese or international flight, but there were 154 Chinese nationals on the flight and maybe something about Malaysian's processes would have made it easier to pull off.

But there's a whole range of possibilities for why a plane would suddenly stop sending signals at cruise.

Pellegrine · Sat Mar 08, 2014 12:47 pm

Terrible news for a MH lover like myself.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 57):
I doubt very much that even if the wing broke off at the point of damage that it would have brought the plane down. The aileron would have still been there, and many planes have landed safely with more damage to the wing than that.

Unless subsequent aerodynamic forces caused damage to spread into a wing spar failure. It'd probably be a quick end after that.

EXMEMWIDGET · Sat Mar 08, 2014 12:48 pm

AP is reporting that two oil slicks have been spotted in the ocean. The slicks were spotted by Vietnamese search aircraft.

[Edited 2014-03-08 04:50:40]

aviasian · Sat Mar 08, 2014 12:50 pm

It is reported that the surface search continues through the night but airborne search will resume at daybreak.

This must be very painful news for families and relatives of the passengers and crew members.

KC Sim

B747forever · Sat Mar 08, 2014 12:51 pm

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 54):
The ELT, if the aircraft was equipped with them, can fail to activate for several reasons. It is unusual but not extremely rare for a crashed aircraft ELT to not function.

If the aircraft had ELT and it never activated, it could indicate a sudden explosion mid air.

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 56):
Yes, definitely.

Thought it was a more widespread problem and quite common with false documents.

If it was an act of terrorism, I am surprised that nobody has claimed the act. Usually they are fast to do it.

rfields5421 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 12:56 pm

Quoting B747forever (Reply 64):
If the aircraft had ELT and it never activated, it could indicate a sudden explosion mid air.

There are several mechanical reasons an ELT might not activate beyond explosion.

Another reason is that the ELT may have activated but if the wreckage sank quickly, and the ELT was entangled in the wreckage - it would be under water and not able to send a signal that could be picked up.

[Edited 2014-03-08 05:03:39]

RussianJet · Sat Mar 08, 2014 12:57 pm

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 56):
Quoting B747forever (Reply 33):
Is it really such a rare occurrence that people travel with false documents, that it can be related to the direct cause of the crash?

Yes, definitely.

Sorry, but that's completely not true. Document abuse goes on all day, every day. This is one of the big reasons why we have border controls. A large airport may see multiple examples of false, altered or stolen documents every day. Practically none of them will be linked to bringing planes down. Obviously trends and prevalence may vary from location to location. Rare though?? Hell no, unequivocally not.

teme82 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:01 pm

Any information if the plane was carrying any dangerous goods on the cargo hold?

EK413 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:04 pm

It's really disturbing to hear no news what so ever & no sign of the aircraft exact location.

EK413

vfw614 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:06 pm

Quoting RussianJet (Reply 66):
Sorry, but that's completely not true. Document abuse goes on all day, every day. This is one of the big reasons why we have border controls.

Why wasn't it spotted? If the passport was stolen and the name not altered, red lights should have popped up with that passenger passing border control in Kuala Lumpur.

Miami · Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:06 pm

According to Vietnamese air force, planes have spotted two large oil slicks that authorities suspect are from a MH flight 370.

A Vietnamese government statement says the slicks were spotted off the southern tip of Vietnam. The slicks were each between 10 kilometers (6 miles) and 15 kilometers (9 miles) long.

The statement said the slicks were consistent with the kinds that would be left by fuel from a crashed jetliner.

argonaught · Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:11 pm

Quoting ajhYXE (Reply 25):

How much damage could an uncontained engine failure cause in a worst-case scenario (i.e. worse than UA232 or QF32)? Does it have potential to bring down an aircraft with little or no opportunity to recover?

The Air France Flight 4590 disaster wasn't an engine failure accident, but it showed that a 5 kg piece of tire, flying at 500 kph (which makes it a fairly soft and sluggish projectile) can wreak lethal havoc even without piercing the skin. The shock wave, created by the impact, was apparently enough to rupture a fuel tank and start electrical fire.

Koosi · Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:11 pm

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 49):
Middle Eastern look not to look suspicious at least.

Didn't the PAL 434 bomber travel on a fake Italian passport? No idea why a Middle Eastern terrorist would target a Malaysian plane though. Of all the countries in the region it would seem like the least likely to be hit. Maybe they had a China Southern ticket and didn't realize the flight would be operated by MAS? But it doesn't seem very likely that someone who went through all the trouble of obtaining that passport and an explosive (not to mention smuggling it onboard) would miss something like that.

AF185 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:13 pm

Quoting Miami (Reply 70):
According to Vietnamese air force, planes have spotted two large oil slicks that authorities suspect are from a MH flight 370.

A Vietnamese government statement says the slicks were spotted off the southern tip of Vietnam. The slicks were each between 10 kilometers (6 miles) and 15 kilometers (9 miles) long.

The statement said the slicks were consistent with the kinds that would be left by fuel from a crashed jetliner.

CNN also reports large quantities of "rubbish" were spotted in the same area, according to Vietnamese officials.

SEPilot · Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:18 pm

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 60):
None of the Comets that crashed ever sent distress signals.

Good point; however the Comet crashes were very similar to bombs. And I do not think that the 777 is in any way prone to an explosive decompression like what happened to the Comet.

Quoting Pellegrine (Reply 61):

Unless subsequent aerodynamic forces caused damage to spread into a wing spar failure. It'd probably be a quick end after that.

I doubt very much that a minor bit of damage like that could in any way precipitate a spar failure. And I suspect that the "improper repair" theory is about as likely as a meteor strike.

RussianJet · Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:18 pm

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 69):
Why wasn't it spotted? If the passport was stolen and the name not altered, red lights should have popped up with that passenger passing border control in Kuala Lumpur.

There are way too many potential scenarios and far too few details to even begin speculating about any precise modus operandi or exact nature of the abuse of this guy's passport.

ZKCIF · Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:18 pm

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 69):
Why wasn't it spotted? If the passport was stolen and the name not altered, red lights should have popped up with that passenger passing border control in Kuala Lumpur.

There are some 60 000 000 Italians only in Italy. There are probably at least a couple or sometimes dozens of different people called Giorgio Simoni or Gianluca Agostini (I picked random names). I would not be surprised if the person whose passport had been stolen simply had a few namesakes even of similar age

HansHubers · Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:18 pm

Quoting Miami (Reply 70):
According to Vietnamese air force, planes have spotted two large oil slicks that authorities suspect are from a MH flight 370.

I doubt if this indicates an explosion when reading this... If an explosion occurs at FL350, will there still be oil (or other fluids) left to spill in the water? Or is this just a stupid way of thinking?

Pellegrine · Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:25 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 74):
I doubt very much that a minor bit of damage like that could in any way precipitate a spar failure. And I suspect that the "improper repair" theory is about as likely as a meteor strike.

How severe was the damage?

I don't subscribe to any theory at this point.

rj777 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:27 pm

Couldn't the oil and rubbish also possibly come from a ship of some sort? I know it's wishful thinking.

DIRECTFLT · Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:31 pm

Quoting Miami (Reply 70):
According to Vietnamese air force, planes have spotted two large oil slicks that authorities suspect are from a MH flight 370.

Oil Slick is also mentioned in a NYT article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/09/wo...malaysia-airlines-flight.html?_r=0

Lai Xuan Thanh, the director of the Civil Aviation Administration of Vietnam said the oil on the surface on the water was somewhat closer to Vietnam than Malaysia at the mouth of the shallow Gulf of Thailand. The last coordinates automatically transmitted by the aircraft were from on the Malaysian side near the midpoint between the two countries, when the plane appeared to be in stable flight at 35,000 feet.

[Edited 2014-03-08 05:33:05]

KarelXWB · Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:34 pm

Quoting rj777 (Reply 79):
Couldn't the oil and rubbish also possibly come from a ship of some sort? I know it's wishful thinking.

That's possible, let's give them some time to investigate the oil.

aviatorcraig · Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:36 pm

Once the distribution of debris can be examined, it should quickly become obvious whether the plane suddenly came apart at high speed and high altitude (like PanAm 103) or came back to earth mainly whole (like ValueJet in the Everglades).

A high altitude break-up could be caused by structural failure, explosion, collision with something or uncommanded thrust reverser deployment. This last one was the cause of the loss of all 223 people on-board a 767 (coincidently in the same part of the world) in 1991. See:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lauda_Air_Flight_004

Quoting ajhYXE (Reply 22):
How much damage could an uncontained engine failure cause in a worst-case scenario (i.e. worse than UA232 or QF32)? Does it have potential to bring down an aircraft with little or no opportunity to recover?

Possible but unlikely, there is a lot of energy released in an uncontained engine failure and shrapnel could definitely rupture the pressure hull, not good for those sitting in that area... but unlikely to cause complete structural failure as the energy is dissipated out in many directions.

Grisee08 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:41 pm

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 60):
the 777's been flying long enough that we'd know if it had some sort of design flaw

It took 24 years, and 2 crashes to find out that the Boeing 737 had a very subtle design flaw in the Rudder PCU. Don't rule anything out...ever.

na · Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:49 pm

Quoting Grisee08 (Reply 83):
It took 24 years, and 2 crashes to find out that the Boeing 737 had a very subtle design flaw in the Rudder PCU. Don't rule anything out...ever.

And 18 years to find out about the wiring fault in the 747-100 and 737 center fuel tanks. And there are other examples of design flaws which are becoming evident only after a long time of flying. I wouldnt rule out construction problems which are only evident in the longer term. A tiny crack due to metal fatigue can be enough.

peachair · Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:50 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 38):
Almost any other mechanical failure would allow time for a radio message to be sent, and almost any crew when faced with an imminent crash is likely to send out a distress message.

Not true - check out the CVR of Lauda Air 004

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lauda_Air_Flight_004

BlueShamu330s · Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:52 pm

Quoting B747forever (Reply 64):
If the aircraft had ELT and it never activated, it could indicate a sudden explosion mid air.

Flying 35,000ft above busy waterways, at night, clear weather, it would have been like New Year fireworks had it been a mid-air explosion.

I am dubious it would have gone completely and utterly unnoticed by a single person at sea.

Rgds

EY460 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:52 pm

http://orf.at/stories/2221258/2221257/

Also the Austrian passenger was not on board and had its passport stolen.

SpaceshipDC10 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:56 pm

Quoting aviatorcraig (Reply 82):
A high altitude break-up could be caused by structural failure, explosion, collision with something or uncommanded thrust reverser deployment

Although we can't rule out yet anything to explain what happened to that 777, I'm wondering if in a case of an uncommanded thrust reverser deployment whether the wing, and whatever parts it riped off, would be floating.

vfw614 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:58 pm

CNN now picking up the stolen passport as well. The Malaysian Aviation Authority official indeed

Quoting ZKCIF (Reply 76):
There are some 60 000 000 Italians only in Italy. There are probably at least a couple or sometimes dozens of different people called Giorgio Simoni or Gianluca Agostini (I picked random names). I would not be surprised if the person whose passport had been stolen simply had a few namesakes even of similar age

The guy is called Luigi Maraldi and apparently on the passenger list his age and city were also given (37 years, Cesena). Not sure how many 37 year old Luigi Maraldis live in Cesena, but obviously not too many if the guy in question felt moved to contact the authorities to inform them that he was not on board (he is currently in Thailand, by the way).

[Edited 2014-03-08 06:04:40]

pvjin · Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:58 pm

Quoting EY460 (Reply 87):
Also the Austrian passenger was not on board and had its passport stolen.

Two people with false passports in the same flight? Doesn't sound very usual to me, I wouldn't be surprised if this was a terrorist attack after all.

[Edited 2014-03-08 05:58:53]

EVAAIRBR076 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 2:00 pm

How on earth is it possible to get behind customs and board a plane with a passport that is stolen as they are report stolen and they all have id numbers, passportnumbers, identhical numers on it etc. U would expect at least that some alarmbells would go off if they scan the passports, two stolen passports on one flight is a bit suspicous to me.

awthompson · Sat Mar 08, 2014 2:00 pm

What a shock to wake up to on Saturday morning!

I'm only back a couple of weeks ago from a trip to the far east (Philippines and Kuala Lumpur) using Malaysia Airlines, albeit on A388 and B738.

I've just been through my photos to find that 9M-MRO taxied behind my B738 at gate C23 KUL.
Here she is........

mark2fly1034 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 2:01 pm

Quoting Miami (Reply 70):

Oil spill? Large jets carry next to no oil, maybe a few gallons in the first place, unless it was cargo.

vfw614 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 2:02 pm

To add to this, both the Austrian's and the Italian's passport were stolen in Thailand.

HansHubers · Sat Mar 08, 2014 2:03 pm

Right, so one false document could be coincidence. But now a second one showed up, that's kind of strange, not?

sassiciai · Sat Mar 08, 2014 2:03 pm

Quoting blueshamu330s (Reply 86):
I am dubious it would have gone completely and utterly unnoticed by a single person at sea.

True, but maybe they are not a.net members!

An report from a fisherman via whatever communication chain to the authorities - that might take time (hours, days - does every fisherman have a radio capable of better than VHF range?) to relay the information, and why should it be public news "instantly"? It's less than 24 hours since it became apparent that "something happened" in a remote over-water area.

While I am focussed on this thread awaiting some factual information, I note that 80% or more posts are of the "RIP/pray/meteor/bomb/speculative type" - it actually makes wading through all of this quite tough. Why cant we all just wait for some reliable facts?

aerdingus · Sat Mar 08, 2014 2:04 pm

Would these two passports not be reported stolen and blocked for use? Similar system to when a credit card is lost/stolen?

sailas · Sat Mar 08, 2014 2:05 pm

Posted by CX.

Our thoughts are with everyone on board Malaysia Airlines #MH370, their families and employees of the airline. We stand ready to assist in any way.

我們對馬來西亞航空 #MH370 航班的乘客、機組人員，及他們的家人致以深切慰問。我們作好準備，提供相關協助。

mark2fly1034 · Sat Mar 08, 2014 2:05 pm

That oil spill seems highly unlikely unless the plane was carrying oil as cargo. Large jet planes only need a few gallons if that for a flight.

Who is online

Popular Searches On Airliners.net