As part 2 is became quite long, it was locked for further contributions. Part 3 is now open for further discussion..

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B777-200ER missing enroute KUL-PEK (by Longhornmaniac Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 2 (by LipeGIG Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)


Regards,

SA7700

Well, still not a lot of new information but given the way things appear to have gone it is still early to tell. Keep praying all but the outlook is not very great.

Trintocan.

it looks like the plane has not been found yet

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...lines-flight-idUSBREA2701720140308

Malaysia's transport minister later denied any crash scene had been identified"

"Vietnamese Admiral Ngo Van Phat later qualified his earlier remarks about a crash site having been identified and told Reuters he was referring to a presumed location beneath the plane's flight path, using information supplied by Malaysia"

I am saddened that nothing has been found. With today's technology, I can't believe it. The worst part of it is, if there are survivors, the chances of surviving at sea becomes difficult after several hours.

I also worry this may have been sabotage. I have a hard time thinking a 777 would just vanish like this.  

Quoting F9Aninal; I have seen a ton of questions as to why the plane has not been found yet, and some poor communications. Could it have something to do with Vietnam? I mean, does the country have a swift response to something like this? For some reason, I just don't picture Vietnam having a world class coast guard, or a sophisticated way to do a good search and rescue. Please correct me if I am wrong. I obviously know nothing about Vietnam and the Capabilities they have to respond to a major crash.

I don't think this has anything to do with Vietnam. While most picture Vietnam as being very very poor and backward, it is in fact a country with a strongly growing economy and on its way to becoming a modern, industrialized country.

The simple truth is probably just that finding something in the ocean is tricky because oceans are large and planes are small.

Quoting 456:
Can someone explain what 'lost contact' means?
Was it during a conversation that the transmission ended all of a sudden
Or that after x hrs of flight, and when ATC wanted to contact them, they never answered that call?

In areas with radar coverage such as this one, secondary radar continuously receives transmissions from aircraft transponder/ADS-B including position, altitude, speed and other parameters. Once this stops...

Over oceanic airspace far from shore with no radar coverage, on the other hand, airliners report position at regular intervals.

[Edited 2014-03-08 02:50:10]

Quoting whiplash (Reply 5):

Per the last thread, if its where they say it may be we are talking 65-75 ft or so

Not much

@whiplash: Water is not deep at all in this aerea compared to atlantic or pacific ocean - so defenetely much easier to find something compared to AF447.

What I dont understand is that why are there not whitnesses ? There are 1000s of fisherboats cruising along by night ... anyone of those must ahve seen anything.

The Italian citizen whose name was in the passenger list called home and he said he was not on board (and he never booked the ticket, so it's not a case of missed flight).

Apparently, he had his passport stolen several months ago.

Links of the news in Italian.

http://www.corriere.it/esteri/14_mar...-a683-11e3-bbe4-676bb1ea55e1.shtml

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 4): In areas with radar coverage such as this one, secondary radar continuously receives transmissions from aircraft transponder/ADS-B including position

Another thing to keep in mind is that the area where the aircraft is believed to be lost is ADS-B required airspace above FL290. I helped create the package for the US FAA OpSpec for ADS-B ops in ADS-B required airspace for my airline. The FR24 data is good data (as long as the aircraft was capable of transmitting ADS-B data) - I remember an ICAO document from a meeting in PEK in November 2012 that showed a LOT of ADS-B receiving stations in that area.

ADS-B became required in parts of SE Asia above FL290 back in December.

RIP to the fallen

Quoting whiplash (Reply 10):

No need to doubt the depth...many a source shows the depths in that area, and a post in the last thread has a nautical depth chart as well

I suggest for all newcomers to check out at least the 2nd half of Part 2 of these threads so that we aren't rehashing the same questions over and over again

Nothing found yet and it will be dark within an hour in the search area.

Still surprised how airliners can go missing like this.

Quoting whiplash (Reply 10): I doubt its as less as 75ft.. If the 777 swan dived into that shallow a water, it would disintegrate into tiny pieces and a large floating debris would have been found..

At typical airliner speeds, the surface of the water might as well be concrete. The depth is immaterial.

Quoting Lentini2001 (Reply 12): Other than the idiot crashing the one in San Fran, I used to think these planes were invincible

A determined pilot can crash the safest of airliners. And if it isn't the pilot, there are some reasons such as maintenance, sabotage, terrorism and so forth that will bring down even the safest of airliners.

Quoting Lentini2001 (Reply 12): Other than the idiot crashing the one in San Fran, I used to think these planes were invincible

We dont know yet whether this crash was due to pilot error or something related to the aircraft.

A single crash doesnt change the fact that the 777 is one of the world's safest aircraft.

Having been watching flightradar24 for a bit, I have not whitnessed any aircraft suddenly disappear off screen in the area MH370 was lost. Too much of a coincidence to have simply gone out of coverage. As others have mentioned, there is a lot of coverage in that area and along the KUL--PEK airway that MH370 was tracking.

For anyone's interest, MH360 (A330) has left KUL for PEK and about to cross the area where MH370 disappeared. Gives good indication of the track.

Bbc reports unconfirmed oil slick sighting by Vietnamese navy. Reported to be 20km long.

still, slick but not debris- could be coincidence.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 15): At typical airliner speeds, the surface of the water might as well be concrete.

Exactly, and salty water might just be even more. SR111 crash is a very good example to that, although the aircraft probably (don't remember if it was determined) didn't hit the surface at full speed. It even produced a small seismic tremor that was recorded at Moncton.

Quoting B747forever (Reply 14): Nothing found yet and it will be dark within an hour in the search area. Still surprised how airliners can go missing like this.

Well the reality is you have an object traveling at 500+ miles per hour. We have no idea of how fast of a decent it was. But basically, ever minute of decent time is ~8-9 miles of area. We also have little idea of the direction, so add a reasonable radius to that. It quickly adds up to hundreds of Sq miles to search. If it was a catastrophic disintegration in air, the actual pieces could be rather small, and carried by currents as well.

It takes a bit of time to get all the resources to the scene as well. Best case, the search ships are 40-50nm away which can take upwards of 4 hours once they are actually out of port. Then once they get on scene they are going to be pretty slow. Even a Helicopter is pretty limited in its search capabilities if there isn't significant surface debris on the surface. If it crashed, the bulk of the plane is almost certainly underwater at the point that air resources got there. Its probably going to require boats running a grid pattern a decent while to find the wreckage.

From Norwegian Air Shuttle facebook page:

" Våre tanker går i dag til alle som er berørt av hendelsen med Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, de savnede, deres pårørerende og venner. "

Translated:

" Our thoughts today for everyone affected by the incident with Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, the missing, their relatives and friends. "



My sentiments too ... 

Quoting spink (Reply 21): Well the reality is you have an object traveling at 500+ miles per hour. We have no idea of how fast of a decent it was. But basically, ever minute of decent time is ~8-9 miles of area. We also have little idea of the direction, so add a reasonable radius to that. It quickly adds up to hundreds of Sq miles to search.

With ELT shouldnt they have an idea of where the wreckage is? Unless it was a sudden and immediate in air disintegration, shouldnt the ELT work?

Quoting EY460 (Reply 9): The Italian citizen whose name was in the passenger list called home and he said he was not on board (and he never booked the ticket, so it's not a case of missed flight). Apparently, he had his passport stolen several months ago.

Very dangerous sign - if he was not on this flight, who was using his passport in this case?

How much damage could an uncontained engine failure cause in a worst-case scenario (i.e. worse than UA232 or QF32)? Does it have potential to bring down an aircraft with little or no opportunity to recover?

Quoting B747forever (Reply 14): Nothing found yet and it will be dark within an hour in the search area. Still surprised how airliners can go missing like this.

I recall it took a few days for AF447 surface debris to be found, complete with many early reports and subsequent denials.

I am all for speculation, but lets try avoid wild speculation... "This reminds me of AF447..." Etc. Well why does it remind you od AF447? Cuz if its only because its a night time incident which happened in mid-flight then... You need to look at the archives to see there are other crashes with similar characteristics caused by different reasons... So lets try to substantiate things a little better?

Very sad about this crash  

Quoting Tsveto4nik (Reply 24): Very dangerous sign - if he was not on this flight, who was using his passport in this case?

I am sure it is quite common that people travel with false documents.

[Edited 2014-03-08 03:40:51]

The FR24 radar track is abruptly terminated mid-air at flying altitude?

Doesn't this mean that either:
(a) ADS-.B was switched off or
(b) ADS-B failed or
(c) there was a total loss of electricity on the plane

And total loss of electricity could be caused by a major structural disintegration or an explosion?

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 28): The FR24 radar track is abruptly terminated mid-air at flying altitude?

Not really, this was the track at 17 21 UTC, shows it at 0ft altitude:

Quoting airportugal310 (Reply 6): Per the last thread, if its where they say it may be we are talking 65-75 ft or so

Quoting airportugal310 (Reply 13): No need to doubt the depth...many a source shows the depths in that area, and a post in the last thread has a nautical depth chart as well

The Chart in Reply 175 says: "soundings in metres".

PA515

Quoting 817Dreamliiner (Reply 29): Not really, this was the track at 17 21 UTC, shows it at 0ft altitude:

Yes, but for one who regularly follow aircraft on FR24, it happens every now and then that the data don't appear . I doubt the aircraft could go from high altitude to 0 ft. in just a few seconds...

Edit: ...unless it was flown to the ground at max. speed.

[Edited 2014-03-08 03:54:10]

Quoting 817Dreamliiner (Reply 29): Not really, this was the track at 17 21 UTC, shows it at 0ft altitude:

Thanks. If that is real received information from the plane's ADS-B (that the plane was plunging) I don't understand how they are unable to locate the wreckage.

Quoting Tsveto4nik (Reply 24): Very dangerous sign - if he was not on this flight, who was using his passport in this case?

Yes, also if the 40 minutes of flight timeline is correct the aircraft would be reaching top of climb which is where you would expect a barometric pressure activated device to detonate.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 32): Quoting Tsveto4nik (Reply 24):Very dangerous sign - if he was not on this flight, who was using his passport in this case? Yes, also if the 40 minutes of flight timeline is correct the aircraft would be reaching top of climb which is where you would expect a barometric pressure activated device to detonate.

Ominous.

Really sad news. My thoughts are with family and friends of those lost in this crash.

What worries me is that the crash site has not been found yet, and that is already dark again in the area.

I suppose FR24's location is close to correct crash site, and I hope SAR is looking there now.

Quoting art (Reply 32): Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 32): Quoting Tsveto4nik (Reply 24):Very dangerous sign - if he was not on this flight, who was using his passport in this case? Yes, also if the 40 minutes of flight timeline is correct the aircraft would be reaching top of climb which is where you would expect a barometric pressure activated device to detonate. Ominous.

Is it really such a rare occurrence that people travel with false documents, that it can be related to the direct cause of the crash?

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 31): Thanks. If that is real received information from the plane's ADS-B (that the plane was plunging) I don't understand how they are unable to locate the wreckage.

It worth remembering that many of Flightradar's receiving stations are in fact digital TV tuners used with a clever piece of software and run and maintained by amatuers, who then stream the data to the website.. Even those that have made for purpose equipment are still "unnofficial".

Some people getting a little carried way i think with exactly what Flightradar is and isn't. It is a great service, but it would be very unise to treat every iota of data it generates as being accurate.

Quoting 817Dreamliiner (Reply 27): Not really, this was the track at 17 21 UTC, shows it at 0ft altitude:

The 0 feet ADS-B report probably comes from aircraft computer failing to feed correct data in to the transponder.

Quoting Tsveto4nik (Reply 22): Apparently, he had his passport stolen several months ago. Very dangerous sign - if he was not on this flight, who was using his passport in this case?

Don't read anything into that for the moment, it's not a significant sign at all. The fact is that document abuse such as the illegal use of stolen passports is pretty widespread and is far more likely to be connected to either criminal acts or immigration abuse than it is terrorism.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 31): Yes, also if the 40 minutes of flight timeline is correct the aircraft would be reaching top of climb which is where you would expect a barometric pressure activated device to detonate.

According to FR24 the aircraft had been flying in FL350 for quite a while before the disappearance, though of course there could have been a device designed to have some delay.

First, in regards to those who are surprised that nothing has been found, the ocean (any ocean) is pretty big. And once you get away from shore boats are actually pretty rare. So it can take a long time to find a crash. Also, ELT's are not required on jets, the theory being that since jets are always on an IFR flight the radar guidance will tell where one goes down. This is not the first time that theory has failed; it was vividly brought home to me years ago when I was in CAP and a Lear jet disappeared trying to land at LEB and was not found for about three years (it was found by a hunter; during the search I had flown directly over where it was eventually discovered but neither of my observers had seen it.) In the ocean the debris may or may not be significant; it depends on how the plane hits and how much it breaks up. One of the big pieces of floating debris of AF447 was the vertical stabilizer, which on the A330 was carbon fiber; on the 777 it is aluminum and hence will not float.

Second, the fact that no distress message was sent does indicate that something suddenly went wrong, which leads to the suspicion of some kind of explosion, which leads one to think terrorism. Almost any other mechanical failure would allow time for a radio message to be sent, and almost any crew when faced with an imminent crash is likely to send out a distress message. The one exception to this is loss of control, aka AF447, where the pilots are likely to be too busy or too preoccupied to send one out. An uncontained engine failure could conceivably bring the plane down (which nearly happened to the QF A380) but it is highly unlikely that it would have prevented the crew from sending out a distress message. There is the possibility of pressurization failure and the pilots losing consciousness before realizing it, but that would require a string of failures that is unlikely.

Ultimately we will not know until the wreckage is found and the recorders analyzed, but the lack of a distress message is to me the most telling indicator. To the best of my knowledge the only major crash where an airliner fell out of the sky at cruise without sending a distress message that was NOT an onboard explosion was AF447, and they had automatic maintenance signals from that flight that hinted at what had gone wrong, so we knew it was not an explosion. I am assuming that the 777 does not have those automatic signals, or than none were received, as we have not heard anything about them. So it does seem that an onboard explosion is the most likely scenario. But I am NOT saying that is what happened.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 4): I don't think this has anything to do with Vietnam. While most picture Vietnam as being very very poor and backward, it is in fact a country with a strongly growing economy and on its way to becoming a modern, industrialized country.

OT: That's a bit overstated. Come live here for a few years & you'll find a growing economy but one that is not strong and no where near becoming an industrialized modern country.

Quoting F9Aninal: I have seen a ton of questions as to why the plane has not been found yet, and some poor communications. Could it have something to do with Vietnam? I mean, does the country have a swift response to something like this? For some reason, I just don't picture Vietnam having a world class coast guard, or a sophisticated way to do a good search and rescue. Please correct me if I am wrong. I obviously know nothing about Vietnam and the Capabilities they have to respond to a major crash.

It has a lot to do with Vietnam. Training in most professional areas is generally good though adherence to policy is nowhere near what you may find in Singapore, Malaysia & other SE Asian countries. It's not uncommon for someone to make some outrageous claim to get their 15 minutes.

I cannot believe that the admiral with his claim of the crash site being in Malaysian waters got any attention at all. Look at the map: he was putting it well southwest of Ca Mau. It is about 650 miles from SIN to SGN so KUL-SGN is a bit less. If that flight was 2 hours from departure it should have been well north SGN's latitude.

There's a news report on tv now, the most in-depth that I've seen all day. They say the flight was not routed through VN airspace. I may misunderstand but I think the reporter said the aircraft disappeared over Laos. I'd take that with a grain of salt.

Well, now they are showing a map with a large area of waters south of Vietnam (just as the admiral reported) as being the search area. It's past sunset here so I guess we'll not know more today.

This may be a silly question, but if the aircraft was hijacked, could it be possible to turn off the transponder and to lose track of the aircraft? Thus allowing the aircraft to be diverted elsewhere undetected... or would it still be visible?

Quoting SKAirbus (Reply 40): This may be a silly question, but if the aircraft was hijacked, could it be possible to turn off the transponder and to lose track of the aircraft? Thus allowing the aircraft to be diverted elsewhere undetected... or would it still be visible?

That would depend on coverage by primary radar I would think. The transponder is a secondary radar system if I recall correctly.

Think there is general radar that would have then picked up an unidentified aircraft

Quoting SKAirbus (Reply 40): This may be a silly question, but if the aircraft was hijacked, could it be possible to turn off the transponder and to lose track of the aircraft? Thus allowing the aircraft to be diverted elsewhere undetected... or would it still be visible?

A 777 is too big to land somewhere undetected. There are few possibilities anyway to land in that region. As the weather was fine its likely not a second AF447 mystery. And as no emergency call was made which would have to be expected after a double engine loss or a fire, maybe its something like TWA800, a catastrophic structural failure which brought the 777 down. Lets hope it wasnt a bomb.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 38): Also, ELT's are not required on jets

For aircraft that are certified for over land ops only, sure. But I disagree with that in regards to ETOPS certified a/c. I'm not not sure about all countries. But I'm almost certain a water activated ELT is required on all ETOPS/EOW - Extended Over Water a/c.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 38): To the best of my knowledge the only major crash where an airliner fell out of the sky at cruise without sending a distress message that was NOT an onboard explosion was AF447, and they had automatic maintenance signals from that flight that hinted at what had gone wrong, so we knew it was not an explosion. I am assuming that the 777 does not have those automatic signals, or than none were received, as we have not heard anything about them.

I was wondering the same. If I'm not mistaken, AF 447 sent a number of automated ACARS messages during that fateful minutes. Why has this not been the case here? Or do we simply not know about any such messages yet? Or, is it true that the 777 does not have this ability? If so, why not?

The secondary radar signal, with the identifier and detailed altitude and airspeed info would be lost, but there would still be an (unidentified) primary radar return. At least on military radar in the area

Quoting SKAirbus (Reply 40):

It would still give off a radar signal on military and civil radars it your turn off all transponders.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 38): Almost any other mechanical failure would allow time for a radio message to be sent, and almost any crew when faced with an imminent crash is likely to send out a distress message. The one exception to this is loss of control, aka AF447, where the pilots are likely to be too busy or too preoccupied to send one out.

what if the repaired wing tip had failed? the repair is pretty close to the r/h outboard aileron. would such a scenario occupy the crew enough to not be able to send an emergency message?

Quoting EY460 (Reply 8): The Italian citizen whose name was in the passenger list called home and he said he was not on board (and he never booked the ticket, so it's not a case of missed flight). Apparently, he had his passport stolen several months ago. Links of the news in Italian. http://www.corriere.it/esteri/14_mar...-a683-11e3-bbe4-676bb1ea55e1.shtml

Wow that is weird... it would need to be confirmed.

Quoting B747forever (Reply 33): Is it really such a rare occurrence that people travel with false documents, that it can be related to the direct cause of the crash?

Very weird indeed. Also, this is a flight from Malaysia (where basically most nationalities can enter visa-free) bound to China (where you would need a pre-arranged Visa at the Chinese consulate, but if he was Italian he could have another ticket and apply at PEK for the new transit visa for 72h... it would be interesting to know this point; so no need for a prearranged visa). Also someone named "Luigi Maraldi" with an Italian passport in that area of the world... you would probably need an European/Middle Eastern look not to look suspicious at least. Why would an European need to "steal" a passport?