MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 6

na · Sun Mar 09, 2014 2:46 pm

Quoting David L (Reply 42):
... or it was determined that it had nothing to do with MH370.

They would have said that and not the opposite, dont you think?

Quoting ideekay (Reply 51):
Finnish medias reports that a part of the airplane has been found according to vietnamese aviation authorities.
http://www.iltasanomat.fi/ulkomaat/art-1288663322230.html?pos=navnow (finnish only)

Have you read the posts above? This news has been posted numerous times now.

GianiDC · Sun Mar 09, 2014 2:47 pm

after reading many posts about how it is rather common that some crims or illegal immigrants travel with a stolen identity espacially in southeast asia and this interesting article about the passport black market in thailand, i personally think that the probability of a terroristic attack is rather low at the moment. surely this may change during the investigation.

seeing the route these two men took (KUL-PEK-AMS-FRA/CPH) and the possibility they originated in thailand and given the afformentioned strong drugspecific relationship between thailand and amsterdam, i am strengthend in my opinion.
and refering to the connections from AMS to FRA/CPH it may be a subtle move to blur their original intention of going to AMS.

i guess travelling with a stolen passport may be more common than we most of us think, we just happen to notice it now because of these very tragic circumstances.

Finn350 · Sun Mar 09, 2014 2:48 pm

The tickets for persons using stolen passports were bought together and obviously they were travelling together. If thinking about a shoe bomb or a luggage bomb, it doesn't make sense to have two persons. If thinking about a hijack, two persons is quite a small team. So I would be surprised if the stolen passports have anything to do with the plane disappearing.

N328KF · Sun Mar 09, 2014 2:50 pm

Quoting SASDC8 (Reply 45):
I am really astonished by the fact that they have still not found the aircraft, or even the crash site. Would think that we in 2014, we all our technology, should be able to find a downed 777 within 48 hours.

Quoting hivue (Reply 50):
We in 2014 tend to have an inflated opinion of our capabilities.

Furthermore, this is not the Gulfs of Mexico or Biscay, where the abnormal flight path would have been noticed much sooner, and SAR assets would have blanketed the area in short order.

ultrapig · Sun Mar 09, 2014 2:51 pm

Is there any possible scenario where the plane has been commandeered and has been beenlanded (or crash landed on a runway not built for it)
in a remote area and we will hear from some of the passengers in the future?

KELPkid · Sun Mar 09, 2014 2:52 pm

Quoting ZKCIF (Reply 44):
Considering the distance from Pattaya and Kuala Lumpur, it is some struggle to get Pattaya-KUL overland in one day, at least a 14-hour ride. If all folks entering Malaysia overland are filmed/photographed, it's not that hard to check whether these guys passed the only (?) Thai/Malaysian border entry post. if these guys flew in on different passports, the Malaysian they could only have hand luggage on themselves. If they used the same identities, at least Thai migration should have had bells ringing as I believe these passports had to be recorded as 'stolen' in their system. Besides, the two guys had to contact some transfer desk in KUL as they transited with two different bookings. Looks artificially too complex for a terrorist operation.

When I visited Malaysia (Penang) in 2008, we were strongly advised by the US State Dept. (and my brother in law whom we were visiting!) to avoid the area of the land border between Malaysia and Thailand, as it was quite dangerous and lawless. Not sure how and if things have changed since then...but I do recall seeing a few Thai vehicles driving around in Malaysia.

David L · Sun Mar 09, 2014 2:54 pm

Quoting Alasdair1982 (Reply 53):
Sky News are reporting the same 'breaking news'.

Maybe it is "new" news then.

Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 52):
5 threads at +/-250 post = 1.250 posts, some short, some others very long .... I had a lot of free time this weekend and I was not even close to read a third of all the posts....

OK but I can also understand how annoying it is for those who have taken the time to discuss the various points only to be asked to do it all again. It doesn't half dilute the discussion.

CyberEntomology · Sun Mar 09, 2014 2:57 pm

Quoting ultrapig (Reply 59):

Quoting ultrapig (Reply 59):
Is there any possible scenario where the plane has been commandeered and has been beenlanded (or crash landed on a runway not built for it)
in a remote area and we will hear from some of the passengers in the future?

I postulated a theory like that in Part 4 (~200) of the thread. Something doesn't pass the smell test here. Lots of places that thing could have disappeared below radar and continued on somewhere (North Korea?)

N328KF · Sun Mar 09, 2014 2:57 pm

Quoting ultrapig (Reply 59):

Is there any possible scenario where the plane has been commandeered and has been beenlanded (or crash landed on a runway not built for it)
in a remote area and we will hear from some of the passengers in the future?

You saw that movie, too, huh?

In all seriousness, there's a lot of places such an aircraft could have gone, but as people have noted, where could you safely land a 777 that it would not be noticed?

alasdair1982 · Sun Mar 09, 2014 2:58 pm

The Vietnamese Navy think they have found a door from the aircraft, Reuters are reporting via Sky News.

David L · Sun Mar 09, 2014 2:59 pm

Quoting na (Reply 55):
Quoting David L (Reply 42):... or it was determined that it had nothing to do with MH370.
They would have said that and not the opposite, dont you think?

If, as I said, the object is the "yellow object" reported earlier then they did say the opposite, that it was determined not to relate to MH370. If it turns out that this is a new object then, of course, that doesn't apply.

[Edited 2014-03-09 08:30:35 by SA7700]

AngMoh · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:08 pm

Quoting GianiDC (Reply 56):
after reading many posts about how it is rather common that some crims or illegal immigrants travel with a stolen identity espacially in southeast asia and this interesting article about the passport black market in thailand, i personally think that the probability of a terroristic attack is rather low at the moment. surely this may change during the investigation.

Personally I think there are some drug dealers upset about the loss of their shipment (they probably don't care about the mules...).

Quoting ultrapig (Reply 59):
Is there any possible scenario where the plane has been commandeered and has been beenlanded (or crash landed on a runway not built for it)
in a remote area and we will hear from some of the passengers in the future?

No way. No place is South East Asia is not that remote. There are people literally everywhere. And mobile coverage is also good - better than many other parts of the world.

I think everyone is too complacent in their belief that it can not be an accident and must be terrorism. Just because the 777 did not have a loss of life due to a technical problem before, it does not mean the 777 can not be the cause. Even if this event is due to a 777 technical failure, the 777 is still much safer than anything else flying around. The track record of the 777 is exceptional and even if the cause is a technical problem, it is still exceptional. Statistically speaking, we are overdue for an accident whatever the cause.
In in my business where safety is critical, all data shows that the chance of a failure is directly proportional to the number of human interventions. The biggest factor in improving safety is reducing the number of people involved.

For me terrorism is a possibility, but it really ranks at the bottom of the list....

AngMoh · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:12 pm

Quoting KELPkid (Reply 57):
When I visited Malaysia (Penang) in 2008, we were strongly advised by the US State Dept. (and my brother in law whom we were visiting!) to avoid the area of the land border between Malaysia and Thailand, as it was quite dangerous and lawless. Not sure how and if things have changed since then...but I do recall seeing a few Thai vehicles driving around in Malaysia.

That border is very safe compared with the US-Mexico border region...

YokoTsuno · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:13 pm

Quoting poolkeeper (Reply 2):
Sorry for the long answer... maybe got too carried away

Maybe I misunderstand your post, but I honestly speaking don't see any relation with an airliner that disappeared over an ocean or sea.

Or are you suggesting that MH370 is still in the air somewhere? That would indeed be news.

penguins · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:14 pm

If, as some news outlets are reporting, the plane attempted to turn back, then why was no distress call or squawk made?

ltbewr · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:15 pm

As to the 2 passports in question and the alleged tickets connected to them, it is possible 2 people could be involved in transiting drugs, with either both carrying drugs, so if one is caught, some drugs still get through, or just one has the drugs and the other a dummy for cover.

I do hope we are getting closer to the location where this a/c ended up so recovery of the bodies as well as recovery of the CVR/FDR and major parts of the a/c to determine what happened to give us some closure. We all want immediate answers to end our speculations but more importantly, to determine what caused this loss, if a criminal act where action must be taken to reduce the risks on flights all over the world or if with the a/c, corrective actions can be made to prevent others of the same type of a similar fate.

lijnden · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:17 pm

Maybe the plane made a successfull water landing like the US Airways A320 and sank, leaving little to no traces.

N328KF · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:19 pm

Quoting lijnden (Reply 68):

Maybe the plane made a successfull water landing like the US Airways A320 and sank, leaving little to no traces.

Where are the people who surely then went out the exits?

Starlionblue · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:21 pm

Quoting N328KF (Reply 56):

Quoting SASDC8 (Reply 45):
I am really astonished by the fact that they have still not found the aircraft, or even the crash site. Would think that we in 2014, we all our technology, should be able to find a downed 777 within 48 hours.
Quoting hivue (Reply 50):
We in 2014 tend to have an inflated opinion of our capabilities.

Furthermore, this is not the Gulfs of Mexico or Biscay, where the abnormal flight path would have been noticed much sooner, and SAR assets would have blanketed the area in short order.

While I don't know the exact specifics, I get the feeling that the Bay of Thailand is really not that different from the Gulfs of Mexico or Biscay when it comes to the SAR and ATC capabilities of the countries in the region. Singapore especially is an ultra-modern country and Malaysia and Thailand seem to be doing their level best to catch up.

Quoting Alasdair1982 (Reply 62):
The Vietnamese Navy think they have found a door from the aircraft, Reuters are reporting via Sky News.

Is this the same object as before? In that case no joy.

Quoting N328KF (Reply 61):
You saw that movie, too, huh?

The short story that started the whole thing ("Air Raid") was brilliant. The novel that expanded the concept was all right but not great. Still, not the finest work of one of my fave authors, John Varley.

But I digress.

David L · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:21 pm

Quoting lijnden (Reply 68):
Maybe the plane made a successfull water landing like the US Airways A320 and sank, leaving little to no traces.

In that case it's more likely they would have transmitted a Mayday.

EVAAIRBR076 · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:22 pm

Quoting lijnden (Reply 68):

At night? Not much chance.

CityhopperNL · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:23 pm

Quoting David L (Reply 58):
Quoting Alasdair1982 (Reply 53):
Sky News are reporting the same 'breaking news'.

Maybe it is "new" news then.

Or perhaps not. The "breaking news" on these sorts of TV channels has been proven to be old news more than once, and not only these days, but I also remember this pattern from AF447. I think many of these channels actually source their information from a website such as this one. Hence the photo that was posted 5 hours ago here of the floating object is now appearing in the news. Rumours -> posted on the internet -> some aviation forum -> TV channel and newspapers pick up, I think that is the order - once something breaking happens, we will know it from somebody posting here on the forum long before they mention it on TV.

David L · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:24 pm

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 70):
Is this the same object as before? In that case no joy.

So I didn't just imagine that the earlier object had been discounted. Thank you!

Miami · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:24 pm

Quoting lijnden (Reply 68):
Maybe the plane made a successfull water landing like the US Airways A320 and sank, leaving little to no traces.

The plane could've sank. But I'm pretty sure the people on board were told in case of a water landing, to find the nearest exit and where to find a life jacket. Evacuation rafts would also deploy.

Starlionblue · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:26 pm

Quoting penguins (Reply 66):
If, as some news outlets are reporting, the plane attempted to turn back, then why was no distress call or squawk made?

This was discussed in the previous thread.

For example in the case of AF447, the pilots initially did not think they had a crisis, and by the time they realized they did, they were too busy to make a distress call. Or say they had a decompression. They're busy dealing with it and making a distress call is far down the list of priorities.

stuyyz · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:27 pm

Question about radar - If indeed the turnback and other plane movements were caught on radar, but nobody happened to be looking at the radar at that moment, is all radar tracking guaranteed to be recorded?

Second quick question - what is the current water temperature? Would any floating survivors be able to survive 48 hours in that water?

[Edited 2014-03-09 08:32:57 by SA7700]

alasdair1982 · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:27 pm

Quoting David L (Reply 74):
So I didn't just imagine that the earlier object had been discounted. Thank you!

Well, they have apparently said it is too dark to confirm what they saw. So can't be the same floating object seen earlier.

vfw614 · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:29 pm

It would be quite ironic if the passengers travelling under false identity were indeed drug mules as they were probably sweating blood all the time not to be detected in countries where they could end up facing the death penalty for being drug mules - only to loose their lives in an air crash while committing that crime....

AF185 · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:30 pm

If a floating object from the plane was to be found without other surrounding debris, could this lead to the theory of an a/c disintegration at high altitude, in which case parts of the plane would be plunging kilometers apart and making it more difficult to spot by the SAR teams?

Starlionblue · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:30 pm

Quoting stuyyz (Reply 76):

Question about radar - If indeed the turnback and other plane movements were caught on radar, but nobody happened to be looking at the radar at that moment, is all radar tracking guaranteed to be recorded?

It is not guaranteed.

FlightRadar24 data seems to indicate that secondary radar did not show a turn back. However there are reports that primary radar did. Hopefully someone has the raw data from both sources.

loladaisydukes · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:31 pm

Now this is interesting... Guys please go to Google maps and search 8.695133, 106.590416
Please correct me if it is not what I think it is

jreuschl · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:35 pm

Question.. If there is a door floating around, what would happen to the aircraft if somehow a door was taken off midflight and thrown out? Would an open door cause a crash?

DTWPurserBoy · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:35 pm

Quoting Miami (Reply 75):
The plane could've sank. But I'm pretty sure the people on board were told in case of a water landing, to find the nearest exit and where to find a life jacket. Evacuation rafts would also deploy.

If the airplane suffered a rapid decompression and was out of control there would be no time for niceties like asking people to put on life vest and locate exits. At that point human physiology takes over and you are in a state of shock. Let's hope these poor souls lost consciousness in 5-6 seconds and never realized what was coming. At the 2 hour point in a midnight flight all of the passengers would be asleep,flight attendants would be making routine aisle checks and it would have been a very quiet environment until about 2 hours prior to landing when the breakfast service would begin..

Gonzalo · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:35 pm

Quoting loladaisydukes (Reply 82):
Now this is interesting... Guys please go to Google maps and search 8.695133, 106.590416
Please correct me if it is not what I think it is

It is certainly a wide body jet... and probably a 777... BUT, the photos taken to "build" google maps can be several weeks old, the chance of that precise jet being MH370 are very very small.

Rgds.
G.

9MMPD · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:35 pm

Quoting loladaisydukes (Reply 82):
Now this is interesting... Guys please go to Google maps and search 8.695133, 106.590416
Please correct me if it is not what I think it is

Dude that's an A330! Highly doubt MRO is zipping the airways still in broad daylight, Next crazy theory please

Starlionblue · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:35 pm

Quoting stuyyz (Reply 81):

Second quick question - what is the current water temperature? Would any floating survivors be able to survive 48 hours in that water?

We're talking 25-28 degrees C so it would be survivable. On the minus side, shark attacks are a real possibility in the region.

Quoting jreuschl (Reply 82):

Question.. If there is a door floating around, what would happen to the aircraft if somehow a door was taken off midflight and thrown out? Would an open door cause a crash?

The problem with this scenario is that you can't really do that. First off, 777s don't have "detachable" overwing exists. Secondly at cruise plug type doors (almost all airliner doors are plug type) are seated in their frames by literally tons of force. No way to get them loose from the plane.

Even if you somehow got a door off, this would cause a decompression but not a crash.

[Edited 2014-03-09 08:36:39]

[Edited 2014-03-09 08:39:36]

Coal · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:36 pm

Quoting loladaisydukes (Reply 82):
Please correct me if it is not what I think it is

An island. So? Are you suggesting they landed there? Obviously we would've known by now. SE Asia is not nearly as remote as people think it is. I can receive 3G in the jungles of Laos and Cambodia while in some parts of urban USA I can't.

Quoting stuyyz (Reply 81):
what is the current water temperature?

It'd be pretty warm, either way. Probably ~28C?

Cheers
Coal

panampaul · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:37 pm

An image of the photo taken showing the debris (as white specks on the water) was supplied by the Vietnamese officials investigating the accident and was published here

Vietnam Officials Report Spotting Debris from Malaysia Flight

Quote:
Vietnamese officials said they had located debris in the Gulf of Thailand from the missing Malaysia Airlines plane that went missing with 239 people on board.

The Vietnamese ministry of information and communication reported on its website that the items were believed to be a composite inner door and a piece of the plane’s tail.....

.

Gonzalo · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:37 pm

Quoting Coal (Reply 87):
An island. So?

I think he's talking about the jet leaving a contrail "over" the island.

deltaSEAalsaka · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:37 pm

Quoting loladaisydukes (Reply 81):

Yes that is a plane. But what is your point in it? If you looked closely around the entire map on google you are bound to find a few planes flying around.

Coal · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:38 pm

Quoting loladaisydukes (Reply 81):

Now this is interesting... Guys please go to Google maps and search 8.695133, 106.590416
Please correct me if it is not what I think it is

OK I saw it on satellite view. It's a 77W given the raked wingtips, looks like SQ.

Cheers
Coal

evomutant · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:38 pm

Quoting loladaisydukes (Reply 81):

That image was taken on the 14th February 2010 and shows something that pops up on Google Earth in hundreds of places around the world.

EVAAIRBR076 · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:39 pm

Quoting loladaisydukes (Reply 81):
8.695133, 106.590416

ha, no google doenst refresh their maps so fast, and if u look closer u see it has winglets, so probaby and airbus 330.

afterburner · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:39 pm

Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 84):
BUT, the photos taken to "build" google maps can be several weeks old,

They can even be months or years old.

loladaisydukes · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:43 pm

Quoting Coal (Reply 91):

Quoting deltaSEAalsaka (Reply 90):

Quoting evomutant (Reply 92):

Thank you for the correction. I was just a little apprehensive with all the stuff running around. In the end we all want to know whatever happened to the flight.

Gonzalo · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:43 pm

Please excuse me since this question could be, in some way, "politically incorrect", but, how large are in southeast Asia the Italian and Austrian comunities ? I mean, are people with the typical face and look of a chinese or a thai citizen carrying a passaport with a name like "Andrew Bodenhoeffer" or " Vittorio Baschelli "a common sight in the airports?

Rgds.
G.

Tod · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:43 pm

Quoting jreuschl (Reply 82):
Question.. If there is a door floating around, what would happen to the aircraft if somehow a door was taken off midflight and thrown out? Would an open door cause a crash?

777 doors cannot be opened in flight and disconnecting them from aircraft would take hours and tools.

Not a possibility.

vfw614 · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:43 pm

Pardon my ignorance, but with hundreds of civil and military satellites circling the earth, is there no way images soht from there can be used to locate the crash site?

As for the fake passengers, surely they would have been detected on arrival at AMS given the fact that the passports were stolen from Schengen zone holders and registered as such. So it is quite safe to assume that they never intended to travel to AMS - but with the European passport, they could not have gotten off the flight at PEK either...

billreid · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:45 pm

I have been following this with strong interest, because it disturbs me greatly.

First, the loss of family members so suddenly is beyond comprehension. I cannot imagine. I have great empathy for all involved.

I am disturbed with the numerous wrong reports. Aircraft landing in China, distress call to US base and other tid-bits. We need to understand that if we were waiting for loved ones at an airport or somewhere any level of false hope is evil at best.

Stolen passports - The authorities will look at this and determine who was on board, when/where they bought their tickets and true intent of those pax. I for one, believe if I was going to create a catastrophic event that I had no intention of surviving I would not need to use a stolen identity. Doesn't make sense unless I were to be denied entry otherwise. More likely drug trade or something criminal but not related to the disappearance.

Reports on oil/fuel slicks, things floating in the water - These reports should be verified for accuracy prior to releasing to media. It takes people down the wrong path if not verified.

Space debris, missiles, alien abductions, bad wing repair - Again it is extremely cold and disrespectful to even suggest/blog any of this might have occurred. While anything is plausible at this point let the experts try to determine what occurred. They know when the last communications occurred. They have the ACARS. They have the radar data. They have the MX records. They have the passenger list. They have so much more than anyone blogging does. I am sure they have a far better ideas than 98% of us.

Media - I heard one media source state on air that he was following the blog, and was putting together possibilities based on the blog. On that basis we should be extremely careful on what we add, it could end up being used by a less than expert aviation writer.

KarelXWB · Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:45 pm

Debris near Tho Chu Island not from MH370: Department of Civil Aviation.

http://news.asiaone.com/news/relax/d...ot-mh370-department-civil-aviation

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