Due to length part 6 was locked for further contributions. Please feel free to continue your discussion in part 7.

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B777-200ER missing enroute KUL-PEK (by Longhornmaniac Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 2 (by LipeGIG Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 3 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 4 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 5 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 6 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)


A select few members have been making remarks towards others in the “Missing Malaysia Airlines 777 threads” for speculating about the fate of 9M-MRO, her crew and passengers. Given the fact that there is so much uncertainty going on at this stage, speculation is going to be a factor on this site and also at the biggest and greatest news corporations of the globe. At least until we all have a clearer picture. Is it a perfect situation – certainly not? That being said, we need to stay dynamic in a possible fast-changing situation.

It is not unique to this incident and if we go back in history and trace remarkable aviation events we will see that speculation has been an aspect, essential to some healthy debate. It is not the intention of the moderators to stifle the opinions of members that fall within the rules-and regulations of airliners.net. All that we kindly request from all our members is to stay within the site’s parameters. Please be respectful towards one another and let us all hope for the best possible outcome. Enjoy the forums!


Regards and thanks so much for your co-operation,

SA7700

Quoting SA7700 (Thread starter): A select few members have been making remarks towards others in the “Missing Malaysia Airlines 777 threads” for speculating about the fate of 9M-MRO, her crew and passengers. Given the fact that there is so much uncertainty going on at this stage, speculation is going to be a factor on this site and also at the biggest and greatest news corporations of the globe. At least until we all have a clearer picture. Is it a perfect situation – certainly not? That being said, we need to stay dynamic in a possible fast-changing situation. It is not unique to this incident and if we go back in history and trace remarkable aviation events we will see that speculation has been an aspect, essential to some healthy debate. It is not the intention of the moderators to stifle the opinions of members that fall within the rules-and regulations of airliners.net. All that we kindly request from all our members is to stay within the site’s parameters. Please be respectful towards one another and let us all hope for the best possible outcome. Enjoy the forums!

Thanks.

Honestly, if there wasn't any speculation at all, we'd pretty much be able to sum everything we know about this situation in one sentence:

No one has heard from MH 370 in a long time.

Anything beyond that is basically speculation.

I did a quick recap for people that haven’t read through (partially or entirely) the other parts of this topic. Its very long at this stage (1,500+) so I will do another one for this part of the thread as some appreciated it in the last thread.

- Vietnam SAR teams spotted a floating object resembling an emergency exit door. This has become a huge target of the investigation and the major point mentioned today on the news stations.

- 2 passengers were travelling with stolen passports and have purchased a ticket simultaneously as their E-ticket numbers were only one digit apart. They were flying KUL-PEK-AMS-CPH and KUL-PEK-AMS-FRA.

- Agent in KUL that did not spot the stolen passport is being questioned/charged.

- The passengers who have had their passports stolen said they were taken in Thailand over the last two years and they were supposedly older passports with no chip - simply speculation that part.

- The passports have become one of the main targets of investigation at present. It may amount to nothing but many find it far too much of a coincidence that two passengers on the same flight were travelling on stolen passports, an had booked the flights consecutively.

- The agent in Thailand that sold the tickets is currently being questioned.

- One Russian was stopped in KUL for using a stolen passport and was not allowed to board.

- An oil slick has been spotted just off Vietnam but this has yet to be confined as a link to the flight. This seems to have disappeared from the news with our saying whether or whether not it was linked to MH 370.

- SAR had spotted some objects in the sea which could be "Yellow Lifejackets" but this was dismissed.

- The flight has supposedly gone down 40 mins into the flight rather than 2 hours in as previously reported. 2 hours is when Malaysia was informed of the plane going missing.

- The aircraft was involved in an incident last year where the wing tip was broken off. But many here have reiterated, then reiterated again, then again, that this should have no impact at all on the flight. The plan is made of many compartments all put together and this was fixed, then checked, then re-checked.

- Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, USA, Philippines (and maybe China) are currently helping in the search effort.

- The sea is only ~45-80m/148-260 ft deep where it has supposedly crashed.

This of course is not everything that has been discussed but I thought I would help some catch up rather than read through the 1500+ posts. Questions continue to be repeated 5-10 times as people are joining in without reading any of the previous posts, but sure it happens! Its a long thread to be fair...

[Edited 2014-03-09 14:07:48]

Have we ruled that picture of the door out yet?

It doesn't look like a door and I can't think what part (at least outer) of the 777 that it could be.

Given the length of the plane, and the depth of the water, a nose dive could impact the sea floor. Wouldn't that have an effect on the possible debris amount and field size?

Quoting cipango (Reply 2): I did a quick recap for people that haven’t read through (partially or entirely) the other parts of this topic. Its very long at this stage (1,500+) so I will do another one for this part of the thread as some appreciated it in the last thread.

Thank you! That really helps those of us who have not been able to read all the previous posts!

Quoting gulfstream650 (Reply 4): It doesn't look like a door and I can't think what part (at least outer) of the 777 that it could be.

I think it was described as an inner panel of a door at least in some news, but the news regarding the potential debris is fast changing and apparently unreliable.

Reply 274 by Jetfuel: "Then that mean either A. Catastrophic instant failure or B. ACARS system disabled via interference"

In the link below there is a clip titled "Could plane have disintegrated?" where Richard Quest refers to ACARS and you can infer that the plane was equipped with ACARS and that nothing unusual was noted. If you page down, you will find this clip on the left.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/09/world/...ane/index.html?iid=article_sidebar

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 5):

Excellent point, it's possible the aircraft could have even impact the floor of the sea at a high rate of speed

Am I wrong for moving away from the idea of breaking up in flight. There would be a wide debris field and perhaps something more conclusive from the airframe would have been discovered by now?

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 5): Given the length of the plane, and the depth of the water, a nose dive could impact the sea floor. Wouldn't that have an effect on the possible debris amount and field size?

I believe the gforce of the plane hitting the water at hundreds of miles per hour would likely be so high the plane would disintegrate on impact, and not go into the water like a dart. Also, while it's not 100% comparable, if you shoot a bullet into water it will only travel a few meters before it loses momentum. The drag of the water is so great that it likely wouldn't make it all the way to the bottom of the sea floor via force. It would probably make it halfway and then negative bouancy would pull it further down.

I would also suspect the debris field, while not huge in size would be huge in pieces as the plane would break into a million pieces. By now floating debris would be pretty far spread out by the current.

My guess is they are looking in t

The supposed door was found in the water near the reported (still unconfirmed?) Oil slicks, 60 miles south of Tho Chu island.
Source: http://www.boston.com/news/world/asi.../TLZ5W65xU3mLsTVxD3lA5N/story.html

Could that part be an interior window panel?

Quoting cipango (Reply 2): I did a quick recap for people that haven’t read through (partially or entirely) the other parts of this topic. Its very long at this stage (1,500+) so I will do another one for this part of the thread as some appreciated it in the last thread.

Thank you for that excellent summary. There was also extensive discussion last thread about passports, Interpol verification, visa requirements, and other issues related to the two "mystery" passengers. Not much was concluded other than:

- Malaysia has among the world's most open entry policies, with relatively few nationalities requiring visas
- Thailand, especially Bangkok, is a major center for sale of forged/stolen identities
- The two tickets in question were sold by a somewhat "shady" travel agency
- While terrorism is an open area of investigation, other explanations for travelling on stolen passports include illegal immigration, drug smuggling, other criminal activity, spying/intelligence under non-official cover, etc. None of these can be ruled in or out at present.


Returning to the ACARS messages that were so crucial in AF447, comments on previous threads indicated that 9M-MRO did not have a SatCom antenna. A.net photos seem to confirm this - at least the usual pod antenna isn't visible on the fuselage crown:

View Large View Medium Photo © Stephan Kruse

View Large View Medium Photo © Yan David

Without SatCom, ACARS messages would be transmitted over VHF or HF radio. Can anyone shed light on what the range of those transmissions would be and who is monitoring the appropriate frequencies? Also, does ACARS on a 777 transmit only messages of an unusual nature (e.g. system faults), or are there periodic position or status updates that would be expected as a matter of course? I remember this was all discussed at great length on the AF447 threads, but that's been several years now.


-B2707SST

Quoting cjg225 (Reply 1):

Very well said both of you, there will always be debate on a.net.

Quoting cipango (Reply 2): - Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, USA, Philippines (and maybe China) are currently helping in the search effort.

I believe that Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, USA, Philippines, China, Vietnam, Thailand, and Australia are searching or have aided the search with aircraft or ships

To the people that have been asking about passport checking in Asia.
I had a quite intensive experience by a gate agent in Delhi boarding for a AI 774 aircraft to Frankfurt some years ago.
The agent asked me lots of questions where I studied, what I was doing in Germany and if I can speak German and so on. He put me also into little stress to see whether I stayed calm.
My background is Indian name with Indian looking skin but German passport because I have been born in Germany as second generation Indian. Now looking at the news of this troubles around passports I feel the Air India gate agent did a great job!

Quoting flyenthu (Reply 8): In the link below there is a clip titled "Could plane have disintegrated?" where Richard Quest refers to ACARS and you can infer that the plane was equipped with ACARS and that nothing unusual was noted. If you page down, you will find this clip on the left.

I also understood from that that he didn't seem to believe the Malaysian military's report of their radar showing the plane making a turn before it disappeared, referring to it as "a rumour". I'm not sure if he knew definitively that the plane was equipped with ACARS, or was just assuming. Is he usually a knowledgable guy in these sorts of events?

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 5): Given the length of the plane, and the depth of the water, a nose dive could impact the sea floor. Wouldn't that have an effect on the possible debris amount and field size?

Quoting jfritz (Reply 9): Excellent point, it's possible the aircraft could have even impact the floor of the sea at a high rate of speed

Quoting Redsand187 (Reply 11): I believe the gforce of the plane hitting the water at hundreds of miles per hour would likely be so high the plane would disintegrate on impact, and not go into the water like a dart. Also, while it's not 100% comparable, if you shoot a bullet into water it will only travel a few meters before it loses momentum. The drag of the water is so great that it likely wouldn't make it all the way to the bottom of the sea floor via force. It would probably make it halfway and then negative bouancy would pull it further down. I would also suspect the debris field, while not huge in size would be huge in pieces as the plane would break into a million pieces. By now floating debris would be pretty far spread out by the current. My guess is they are looking in t

Could such an impact set off on a Richter magnitude scale ?

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 18):

In the case of SR111 it actually did so the answer is yes.

Quoting Redsand187 (Reply 11):

Parts of AA77 penetrated over 300 feet into the Pentagon.

The front disintegrated on impact, but the rest drove well on in.

My thoughts and prayers for those on board MH 370 and their families.

Quoting DALFA (Reply 19): In the case of SR111 it actually did so the answer is yes.

Thanx

Hope someone is checking that out then ...

Quoting jfritz (Reply 9): Excellent point, it's possible the aircraft could have even impact the floor of the sea at a high rate of speed

Could it? Water stops fast objects pretty quickly. Bullets are not lethal a few meters under water IIRC.

I know I have too much free time but I have read ALL posts from ALL parts right up to here over the weekend.
My fervour is driven by having just recently returned to the UK after a trip to the Philippines with a few days spent in Kuala Lumpur on the way home. My main carrier was of course Malaysia Airlines.

Into the bargain I took a photo while boarding one of my flights at KUL and guess what was taxiing past in the background but 9M-MRO !



My shock about what has happened has attracted my attention so much that it has kept me glued to my laptop, largely on airliners.net all weekend.

For those who feel they have missed something by not having had the time to read all the posts, do not worry. There is nothing factual in there that has not been on international news, and such facts are very limited indeed, you could list them in a few lines.

The earlier parts largely consist of repetition and hundreds of suggestions and theories, many of which would not be out of place in the film world. The subject matter is very similar to the wild speculation that followed the Air France 447 crash, when all along the chain of events behind the crash were of a less benign nature. I believe this could also be the case with MH370.

Despite MH370 being lost closer to land and in shallow seas, there is actually less factual information in circulation than there was after AF447. In the case of AF447 we had the string of ACARS data transmitted by the crashing F-GZCP indicating various systems failures triggered by temporary loss of airspeed data. We do not appear to have any abnormal data from MH370, or at least it is not in the public domain.

There is some discussion surrounding the suggestion that MH370 'may have' turned back towards KUL in its last moments. This has been hinted at by the authorities but nothing more than that.

Based on infra red satellite images, weather at the time along the route of MH370 was reported to have been fair with no significant cloud buildup or convection activity. No significant turbulence was reported by other aircraft. It was night time when MH370 was last in contact with ATC and there was no moon in the sky at the time.

There are as yet no validated reports from any witness that may have seen or heard anything significant relating to MH370.

About 60% of the posts are devoted to discussion surrounding the two persons allegedly on board MH370 with stolen passports. So save yourself the trouble of reading everything. Stolen passports will not bring down a plane unless the holders manage to bring on board a viable explosive device.

There is some quite technical discussion about the pros and cons of various types of radar and marine searching equipment that could be used to locate the lost plane underwater. If you have a particular interest in that, you may find some useful titbits. A couple of well versed posters with marine background/interest posted charts indicating that the Gulf of Thailand where the wreckage likely will be found is very shallow so we are not dealing with ocean depths like in the AF447 case.

I hope my comments help save time for some readers.

Can I pay tribute to billreid From Netherlands at reply 98 Part 6 for the post that sticks out most in my mind as being very human and level headed, and the one that shows the most feeling for relatives who have lost loved ones.

Quoting B2707SST (Reply 14): Returning to the ACARS messages that were so crucial in AF447, comments on previous threads indicated that 9M-MRO did not have a SatCom antenna

I am also looking for definitive confirmation that there was no ACARS capability on this aircraft. In the previous thread it was stated that CNN and a Richard Quest had confirmed ACARS had sent messages of only routine nature, nothing like the AF447 messages.

Quoting washingtonflyer (Reply 13): Could that part be an interior window panel?

That was my first thought also.

It's also interesting that some news reports are saying that the search area has been widened due to speculation that the last known location of the aircraft was wrong and suggesting the aircraft had turned back.....especially as this would suggest that a problem was known by the crew but not communicated.

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 187): After AF-447 and now MH-370 is there any plans by the manufacturers to introduce technology to have aircrafts automatically transmit short text messages on a continuous basis (let's say every minute) that contain location, altitude and speed to the Airline's base? In this modern age with so much technology available a plane should not just go missing.

This technology is already fitted to the vast majority of airliners flying today. It is called ADSB. Even better, it transmits the 'text' you describe every second and anyone with an ADSB receiver can receive and decipher the data. This is how certain flight tracking websites obtain their data.

Quoting B2707SST (Reply 14): Returning to the ACARS messages that were so crucial in AF447, comments on previous threads indicated that 9M-MRO did not have a SatCom antenna.

The Malaysian B777 have flat plate antenna, one on each side. They are raised above the skin by about 3/16in and can be seen on a good close up picture. These were very common a few years ago and are perfectly adequate for communication.

Quoting BSLFRA (Reply 16): I had a quite intensive experience by a gate agent in Delhi boarding for a AI 774 aircraft to Frankfurt

Not surprising. The most intensive screening I've ever had was on AI YYZ-LHR having bought a one way ticket at short notice - and rightly so. I was put through multiple rounds of questioning, and my hand luggage was scanned twice and also inspected by hand. At YYZ AI uses a separate gate area for extra screening. I've seen the same thing at DEL on my flight to LHR on BA and also at KUL for flights to BLR.

However, without question, the security screening in India is MUCH more comprehensive than Malaysia. I guess it's only natural - Malaysia hasn't had many real threats to security in recent memory, Lahad Datu aside. Whereas India certainly has.

Quoting 345tas (Reply 17): Is he usually a knowledgable guy in these sorts of events?

He is a very reliable reporter and I have seen him on CNN for years. He travels a lot and reports on travel, business, and aviation quite regularly. He also has another cockpit video where here flew with the copilot of MH 370. Here it is:

http://www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/vi...est-malaysia-plane-search.cnn.html

Quoting washingtonflyer (Reply 13):

Exactly what I thought. But only one piece? Just bizarre. So much can float: something so simple as safety cards.

a quote from CNN:

The mysteries surrounding the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, and the true identities of some of its passengers, are as deep as the southeast Asian waters where multinational search teams are searching for the jet.

mr.Clancy and mr.Morgenstein have little understanding of the depth of these waters

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 18): Could such an impact set off on a Richter magnitude scale ?

That thought occurred to me as well this morning, so I checked earthquake sites for Malaysia, Thailand, and the USGS world summary. Unfortunately, none of them show earthquakes in that region below magnitude ~4, which is far larger than an airplane crash could create. Even in the case of United 93, a very violent crash into a well-monitored area, the 9/11 Commission called the seismic evidence "not definitive," so the odds of locating a crash site on land from seismic data are quite low. A crash into water (unless very, very shallow) probably would not create any seismic signal at all.

Quoting s5daw (Reply 23): Could it? Water stops fast objects pretty quickly. Bullets are not lethal a few meters under water IIRC.

Yes, but that is many times the bullet's length as well.

It's an interesting question. How far would it travel through the water?

The water depth could have been much less than the fuselage length, depending on the exact spot.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 34): It's an interesting question. How far would it travel through the water?

Depends on the impact speed and angle.
SR111 disintegrated on impact - but it hit almost inverted with 350g.
Other sea crashes have involved relatively shallow-angled descents to the sea floor.

Quoting cipango (Reply 2): - One Russian was stopped in KUL for using a stolen passport and was not allowed to board.

Excellent recap, but my understanding was the Russian was denied boarding because his legitimate passport had been stolen and he thus did not have one - not that he was caught with a stolen passport. I hadn't seen this to be proven otherwise, did I miss this?

In the current CNN main webpage article "The shift came at the request of the Malaysians, who are looking into possibilities the plane turned around and could have gone down in the Andaman Sea". This seems incredulous, if I'm reading the maps correctly, this means they think the plan flew back over Malaysia (apparently undetected by radar) and crashed in the Andaman Sea?

Quoting awthompson (Reply 24): Into the bargain I took a photo while boarding one of my flights at KUL and guess what was taxiing past in the background but 9M-MRO !

Didn't you already post that photo in an earlier part of this thread? This thread is already long enough without repeating previous posts.

I am amazed at how the media and bloggers refer to a crashed aircraft. Until any wreckage is found, the aircraft is one that has 'disappeared'. Due respect for those with family & friends on board this aircraft

As it s stated in this thread summary that the gate agent was being questioned. I would think so...wouldn't it set off at least a flag for them when an obviously Asian looking guy (although I don't know this) shows up with fully blown Italian name and passport. Just asking....

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 38): Didn't you already post that photo in an earlier part of this thread? This thread is already long enough without repeating previous posts.

The same picture was in a previous post, but I felt it was fitting for his post in this current thread.

It's almost daylight again. I wonder if they can continu searching with the planes again. I wonder how long it will take before the boats are at the unidentified object in the water.

Quoting stuyyz (Reply 37): In the current CNN main webpage article "The shift came at the request of the Malaysians, who are looking into possibilities the plane turned around and could have gone down in the Andaman Sea". This seems incredulous, if I'm reading the maps correctly, this means they think the plan flew back over Malaysia (apparently undetected by radar) and crashed in the Andaman Sea?

That would indicate to me they have information that isn't being shared with the public.

Quoting awthompson (Reply 27): This technology is already fitted to the vast majority of airliners flying today. It is called ADSB. Even better, it transmits the 'text' you describe every second and anyone with an ADSB receiver can receive and decipher the data. This is how certain flight tracking websites obtain their data.

Thanks for clarifying, this makes it more puzzling isn't it? 40 ships and 20+ aircraft should have found some signs of the aircraft at the last known position then based on the ADSB data. Is there a possibility of the ADSB failing and the aircraft flying for a significant distance after that? If, so, could the same failure that caused ADSB to fail also cause communications failure where the crew could not communicate to the outside world but could still fly the plane for some distance before crashing?

Quoting Condor24 (Reply 39): I am amazed at how the media and bloggers refer to a crashed aircraft. Until any wreckage is found, the aircraft is one that has 'disappeared'. Due respect for those with family & friends on board this aircraft

What's your point ? Where is the aircraft if it's not a crash ???

Quoting stuyyz (Reply 37):

The Andaman Sea wouldn't make any sense. Hmm. (For those who don't know its the sea on the other side of the Malay peninsula from the Gulf of Thailand). This means the plane would, without any communication or detection , turn around and fly over the LAND of Thailand or Malaysia before crashing.

Quoting USAIRWAYS321 (Reply 43): That would indicate to me they have information that isn't being shared with the public.

Maybe. But this is such a huge detour and so far from intial investigation site that I think the media got it wrong and the thought is that the plane turned TOWARDS the Andaman Sea, thus widening the search area.

Because of the likely level of desintegration of the 777, together with the mysterious circumstances of the proper subjects, those fake Italian and Austrian passengers may become the hardest victims to identify in Aviation History.

Just why the men posing as the Italian and Austrian would have used the false documents is still unclear. Terrorism is a possibility, but so is asylum: six Syrians hoping to seek refugee status in Sweden have been detained for over a month at Phuket's international airport after attempting to fly to Stockholm via Beijing on Greek passports. Local media outlet Phuketwan reported that the group said they had chosen to fly through Phuket and Beijing because other refugees had reached Sweden using the same flight path.

The NRO admitted they have no record of a "flash" anywhere during this flight's time in the air. They have admitted, since 9-11 they have the ability to do so globally. That was the first thread to be pulled in the search to eliminate a quick disintegration at cruise level. There really is no other way that plane could have gone to pieces flying at manufacturer specified airspeeds in the troposphere, period.

I can only think of one other event in human history where structural metals managed to transform into literal dust, and that was on 9-11. I am NOT liking where this sad and horrible event is going. If there aren't some rather large, easily identifiable pieces of this plane retrieved relatively soon, my guess is there never will be.  

[Edited 2014-03-09 14:36:10]