evomutant
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:05 pm

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 43):
1. the phones are on
2. they are un-damaged
3. they are holding a charge
4. they have some kind of connectivity

It means none of those things at all. It just means the phone was roaming, as any Chinese cresidents would be for example.

Even if it did, phones check in regulalry with the cell network. You do not need to make or receive a call for the position to be triangulated.
 
Stabilator
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:05 pm

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 32):
That is why I believe something very, very bad happened very quickly in the air, because there was no time to communicate.

Even if the plane was experiencing a catastrophic event, either the F/O or Captain would certainly make a distress call. In all my years of g/a training, there has never been an example so severe that it would require me to not send out an emergency signal. Changing the squak to general emergency doesn't take long at all. And while one pilot has "controls" the other pilot/s in the flight deck are usually handling things like emergency checks and radio calls.

In other words, I can think of no event where both pilots in the flight deck would throw crew resource management out the window short of a bomb detonating. In my speculative opinion, either an explosion occurred or someone with significant knowledge of the flight deck (basically, the pilots) turned of the transponder. Even if they did turn the box off, radar would still ping them (i.e. 9/11 - correct me if I am wrong in any of this). It's such a mystery - truly tragic for the family members.
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Thunderboltdrgn
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:08 pm

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 48):
passengers phones are ringing... Interesting story. Perhaps something nefarious is happening?

This have been mentioned many times already.

The latest time it was mentioned was in the previous thread:
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 10 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)#215

[Edited 2014-03-10 16:09:30]
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nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:09 pm

Quoting Stabilator (Reply 51):
In all my years of g/a training, there has never been an example so severe that it would require me to not send out an emergency signal

NORDO!

[Edited 2014-03-10 16:11:42]
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pvjin
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:09 pm

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 43):
f the reports of the cell phones ringing are true, and I will try to find the article in a moment, that means a few things:

1. the phones are on
2. they are un-damaged
3. they are holding a charge
4. they have some kind of connectivity

Nah, that means nothing, they can appear to be ringing to the caller although in fact they aren't. Same happened with AF447 in 2009, when a relative of a passenger called the phone it appeared to ring, although in reality it was on the bottom of Atlantic Ocean.

I think someone explained reasons for this phenomenon in previous thread, I'm not sure what exactly causes this to happen...

I really wonder if something a bit like JAL123 could have happened here... Something serious enough to cut communications & damage their ability to control the plane, but still not bad enough to make them crash instantly.

In that case they could have been wandering into pretty much any direction for quite a time before the impact...
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:10 pm

How have the authorities ruled out that the plane did not make it to land? What if we are searching in the wrong places?
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:10 pm

Sunrise in Vietnam is NOW. Let's hope a new day will bring us all some news and answers.
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:11 pm

 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:13 pm

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 57):
Full passenger list

Published 2 days ago, seen here 2 days ago
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:15 pm

Quoting pvjin (Reply 54):
Nah, that means nothing, they can appear to be ringing to the caller although in fact they aren't. Same happened with AF447 in 2009, when a relative of a passenger called the phone it appeared to ring, although in reality it was on the bottom of Atlantic Ocean.

I think someone explained reasons for this phenomenon in previous thread, I'm not sure what exactly causes this to happen...

I really wonder if something a bit like JAL123 could have happened here... Something serious enough to cut communications & damage their ability to control the plane, but still not bad enough to make them crash instantly.

In that case they could have been wandering into pretty much any direction for quite a time before the impact...

Ahh, i see I didn't have time to re-read all 10 previous pages haha, but I think it is still erie as there is no word on the aircraft.

With AF447, everyone knew something major had happened due to the messages that were auto-sent to AF. With this one it seems to have just disappeared off the face of the planet with no wreckage after 3 days. Not one piece.

Would it be possible for some kind of crazy plot to have occurred that would involve the cooperation of ground staff at MH, the pilots, and possibly the passengers? They did have 1-2 years to plan after acquiring the passports, and people have tested boarding flights with stolen passports before.
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:15 pm

Crowdsourcing the Search for Malaysia Flight 370

Kind of neat article to read. Maybe one of us will fine it.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headline...he-search-for-malaysia-flight-370/
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:17 pm

I won't judge about the cause, but following the thread with most interest. Being from flight ops/dispatch myself, I have a strong believe that the aircraft exploded somehow midair, either by explosive, or anything else (cargo dangerous goods, meteorite etc). You can feel, that I have a feeling that this is an act of terrorism to innocent people.

Did someone alreasy link this crash to last weeks knive-murdering incident in Kunming trainstation, China? Act of Tibet/Xinjiang group of Chinese (mostly islamic related) people wanting independancy.
These people indeed have links to the islamic world (no judgement, just saying).

It's also fair to say that Malaysia is an unorganized over corrupt country with a mix of nationalities, but... Muslims want control of Malaysia and want the Chinese population to leave. This is what happens..., ask Chinese Malay people and they can confirm.

Also, KUL security is a joke. From personal experience, my KLM KUL-AMS flight was leaving unsafe, where my friend got 3 "dangerous" (liquid) items onboard, where mine were taken and confiscated. I reported about this matter to the airline representative, but he said it was fine and I can report online with a complaint.
All lunatics!! This is about safety... You can imagine, others can easily try to bring articles onboard. And, how much can we trust the airport staff/security people/loading staff... Malaysia is corrupt, there are internal politic issues, and the flight was heading to China with a lot of Chinese onboard.

A friend of me losses 4 friends, who were onboard MH370... All in their twenties. All only sibling of their parents, who are ages over 60 and loose their only son or daughter... Innocent people died, and despite not knowing the truth of this accident, I feel that this crash is not an accident... Also, China is a bit "quiet" with their statements so far, but things can be linked at some stage, I'm pretty certain about it  
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speedbird128
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:21 pm

Quoting gulfstream650 (Reply 56):
Let's hope a new day will bring us all some news and answers

I am not desperate to know - all I am hoping for is resolution so the poor victim's families can get closure one way or another. The endless nothingness is terribly traumatic for people waiting for the (likely) inevitable news to arrive.

And lets also spare a thought for the hundreds/thousands that are involved in the search efforts, that have probably been up the better part of the whole day every day since the report of the plane went missing, either physically searching, or planning, or liaison or any other multitude of things - even just keeping the coffee cups full can be a full time task.

SAR is a difficult and stressful job and finding a wreck and/or dead people is a pretty traumatic experience.

  
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:23 pm

Quoting airbuseric (Reply 61):
Being from flight ops/dispatch myself, I have a strong believe that the aircraft exploded somehow midair

This is what many of my CPL+ friends think as well, but it's based entirely on the sudden loss of contact in the flight levels. The lack of a debris field near the last point of contact makes that possibility grow weaker by the minute.
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:24 pm

Quoting penguins (Reply 55):
How have the authorities ruled out that the plane did not make it to land? What if we are searching in the wrong places?

70% earth is covered with water. The probability of a 777 landing anywhere on an unprepared land without breaking apart and catching fire is near zero. With that much amount of fuel burning it is very likely someone will notice the smoke, it could be near by people, overflying aircraft or even weather satellites.
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:25 pm

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 64):
The probability of a 777 landing anywhere on an unprepared land without breaking apart and catching fire is near zero.

Also the ELT would go off...
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cjg225
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:26 pm

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 62):

I understand what you're saying, but I think that the uncertainty over what happened has to make it very important find out what happened as quickly as possible even for non-family/friends. While I am not of the mind this was a terrorist attack... what if it is? What if it is the opening of a series of attacks?

Even if it's not terrorism, maybe it's something that could happen to others. In these situations, I think it's always a race to find out what happened so as to figure out if it's something that can happen again in a short period of time, thereby maybe preventing a recurrence of the problem and loss of more life.
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btfarrwm
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:26 pm

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 22):
I agree with that 100 percent and that is partially, almost entirely, why I believe the plane may be intact, but resting at the bottom of the ocean. I know that sounds crazy. If that were the case, however, how long would it take for water to engulf the cabin?

Anyone know if there was valuable art onboard?

 
prosa
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:26 pm

Something I haven't seen mentioned (though I might have missed it) is that MH suffered one of the first A330 hull losses back in 2000, due to the leakage of hazardous chemicals in the cargo. Could that be a hint as to what happened here?
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solarflyer22
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:27 pm

Quoting marktci (Reply 7):
1) A hijacking type of incident in which the systems which would otherwise transmit information from the plane were disabled. I don't see the plane having landed safely anywhere (surely every satellite possible would be looking for a 777 where it doesn't belong) and thus has crashed somewhere, possibly some significant amount of time after its last known location.

2) A catastrophic system failure affecting the ability to fly the plane, to communicate (both actively and passively), and possibly to breathe. The plane flies for some distance (either on its own or with some limited inputs) before crashing.
Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 40):



Here is a possible scenario: imagine the two people with false passports were terrorists. When the captain or co-pilot got up to go to the toilet, they rushed him and managed to break into the cockpit. They then killed both pilots, switched off the transponder and turned the plane around in the direction of their intended target (Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur, or some other city). At this point the passengers, having seen what had happened, would not just sit back and relax but rather try to get together and take back control. They ram the cockpit door, at which point the hijackers crash the plane into the sea (which couch have been over the Indian Ocean or the Pacific by this time).



This was my thinking as well but leaning toward number 2.

The gentleman with the stolen passport was described as of African descent. If it had been an Uyghur Chinese man with an axe to grind I might lean toward number 1 but it wasn't.

This scenario is plausible and I thought of something similar. It meets all the criteria we know 1) Can't find the plane because it went off course 2) Transponder disappeared 3) Didn't land safely 4) Might have made a mid air turn 5) No Mayday or squawking.

Problem is that is just a really hard scenario to pull off.

Does anyone know if meals would be served on this overnight flight? I have a hard time seeing them open the cockpit door to take a leak so shortly after takeoff as well. Don't forget it was 2:40 AM local time.
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:28 pm

For what it's worth, my guess what could have happened is that the cockpit had some sort of severe decompression, crew initiated an emergency decent ( aviate ) turned round ( navigate ) and before they could don oxygen masks and communicate passed out, leaving the 777 still in the emergency descend mode to it's watery grave. It could then possibly have exceeded Mach 1 on it's way down and broken up in doing so, but then that would have created floating wreckage.
Another possibility is the scenario a QF 744 had a while back in an area not that far from this region with the exploding oxygen cannister.
 
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cjg225
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:28 pm

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 63):
This is what many of my CPL+ friends think as well, but it's based entirely on the sudden loss of contact in the flight levels. The lack of a debris field near the last point of contact makes that possibility grow weaker by the minute.

I agree. At this point, a mid-air breakup of any type (explosion or otherwise mechanical) seems to be much less likely as each minute passes. Small pieces or not, with the amount of searchers out there, a spread-out debris field would increase the chance that someone sees ANYTHING at all. Up until now we've seen... an oily slick and a cable reel. Of course, there could be other stuff that has been seen but immediately ruled out, but with a wide debris field, there certainly would be a higher chance of a hit, I'd think.
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speedbird128
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:31 pm

Quoting cjg225 (Reply 66):
I understand what you're saying, but I think that the uncertainty over what happened has to make it very important find out what happened as quickly as possible even for non-family/friends. While I am not of the mind this was a terrorist attack... what if it is? What if it is the opening of a series of attacks?

Even if it's not terrorism, maybe it's something that could happen to others. In these situations, I think it's always a race to find out what happened so as to figure out if it's something that can happen again in a short period of time, thereby maybe preventing a recurrence of the problem and loss of more life.

I wasn't talking from transportation safety boards point of view - they will continue to work as hard as they can until everything has been deciphered and the causal/contributing factors determined as soon as logistically possible...

It is just from the personal point of view, I meant I would rather have them working than spilling their guts to satisfy the now-generation... that's all...
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:34 pm

Quoting airbuseric (Reply 61):
I have a strong believe that the aircraft exploded somehow midair, either by explosive

Highly unlikely. The explosion would have been picked up by a reconnaissance satellite and there would be eye witness reports by countless marine crew.

No, the plane must have gone down in one piece, and sunken without breaking up. How that happened, I don't want to speculate.
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:34 pm

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 47):
The cell phone thing has been thoroughly debunked in previous posts.

It hasn't. I read through all the same posts you did. What people said to refute the cell phone thing were basically these points:

a) Cell phones don't work underwater (making the assumption that they are underwater)

b) Cell phones don't work more than 35km from land (making the assumption that they are more than 35km from land)

c) Most passengers were Chinese, so they were already on a different network (ignoring the fact that many passengers and crew were Malaysian)

d) The ring sound is not generated by the phone (we know; but the home network doesn't generate a ring if it hasn't located the phone)

e) The batteries would be dead by now (most would *by now*, but I routinely get 4 days on my phone if I'm not using it, and many passengers keep their phones charged while flying)

f) They haven't found the plane yet, so this *must* be a red herring, because they'd have found it if the cell phones were working

None of these points really debunks/refutes anything as they all rely on assumptions about what happened, and the last one is a particularly obvious example of false logic.

Maybe I missed one post somewhere that went into some technical detail about why the phones physically could not be working. But so far all I've seen is that the phones wouldn't be working under scenarios that the poster thinks are the most likely. But until we know what actually happened to this plane, it seems to me that it's impossible to say that 100% of the phones definitively aren't working. All you can say is that they *probably* aren't. As far as I know, the authorities have never come out and said "we investigated this, and found nothing". The families and MH employees have been trying to get them to look into it; the fact that they don't seem to have ruled it out suggests to me that they either haven't even looked into it, or that they have and they actually found something that's helped inform their search, but won't say so in public because of how the families would react.

Just for the record, there have been plenty of cases of cell phones surviving plane crashes, and responders hearing phones ring as they're working rescue/recovery missions.
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aftgaffe
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:36 pm

Quoting pvjin (Reply 54):
I really wonder if something a bit like JAL123 could have happened here... Something serious enough to cut communications & damage their ability to control the plane, but still not bad enough to make them crash instantly.

This definitely seems like a possibility if not a probability. But with damage so bad that the transponder failed (along with, seemingly, all communications capabilities) how long could the plane have realistically stayed aloft? JAL 123 was something like half an hour after failure. Granted, that is n=1 stuff, hardly scientific. But here I would guess that only a complete loss of electronics could permanently knock out a transponder (I could be wrong though). And with a complete loss of power, I think you're looking at 20 minutes gliding time give or take from the moment of failure (a scenario in which the engines are still generating thrust but all communication equipment has been knocked out seems truly unlikely, though perhaps somebody can think of such a scenario?).

Bottom line though, it seems difficult to imagine that an aircraft could suffer the kind of damage that would knock out all communications flying more than 30 minutes. Let's call it 40.

Am I wrong to conclude that the expanded search area envisions post-failure flight of well over 40 minutes? Which is to say, the search area is at least partially premised on their having been no failure at all but something else at play?

[Edited 2014-03-10 16:39:38]
 
F9Animal
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:38 pm

I am suspicious that investigators know more than they are telling. They seem pretty interested in the stolen passports, and terrorism has been speculated often. Perhaps they do have a claim of responsibility, but are not releasing the info to the public? I can see a reason to not let the public know, as it could hinder the investigation? If it was terrorism, I suspect authorities are working hard to find all responsible.
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tyler81190
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:40 pm

Quoting cjg225 (Reply 71):
I agree. At this point, a mid-air breakup of any type (explosion or otherwise mechanical) seems to be much less likely as each minute passes. Small pieces or not, with the amount of searchers out there, a spread-out debris field would increase the chance that someone sees ANYTHING at all. Up until now we've seen... an oily slick and a cable reel. Of course, there could be other stuff that has been seen but immediately ruled out, but with a wide debris field, there certainly would be a higher chance of a hit, I'd think.

I saw in that link I posted up-thread about the phones, there was a quick single sentence about the possibility of being highjacked and landed somewhere with plans for future use for the aircraft (terror). While highly improbable, that area of the world is littered with old military airports no longer used that could potentially support a large aircraft, though there would have to be a massive plot, with tons of people in the know.


I hope (though the chances are getting lower by the minute) that the aircraft is found intact somewhere.
 
Stretch
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:40 pm

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 43):
1. the phones are on
2. they are un-damaged
3. they are holding a charge
4. they have some kind of connectivity

Actually, dial tone (of the old land line days) and modern "ringing" are just courtesy tone so you don't hear dead air whilst waiting to connect.
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:45 pm

Quoting Mark2fly1034 (Reply 60):

Very great!


David
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cjg225
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:46 pm

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 77):
I saw in that link I posted up-thread about the phones, there was a quick single sentence about the possibility of being highjacked and landed somewhere with plans for future use for the aircraft (terror). While highly improbable, that area of the world is littered with old military airports no longer used that could potentially support a large aircraft, though there would have to be a massive plot, with tons of people in the know.

With a hijacking, I have such a hard time believing it would happen so quickly with post-9/11 security protocols that not a single message would get out.

An uncomfortable thought, of course, is that the crew was in on it. Think Debt of Honor, only without the crash into the Capitol
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tyler81190
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:48 pm

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 74):
It hasn't. I read through all the same posts you did. What people said to refute the cell phone thing were basically these points:

a) Cell phones don't work underwater (making the assumption that they are underwater)

b) Cell phones don't work more than 35km from land (making the assumption that they are more than 35km from land)

c) Most passengers were Chinese, so they were already on a different network (ignoring the fact that many passengers and crew were Malaysian)

d) The ring sound is not generated by the phone (we know; but the home network doesn't generate a ring if it hasn't located the phone)

e) The batteries would be dead by now (most would *by now*, but I routinely get 4 days on my phone if I'm not using it, and many passengers keep their phones charged while flying)

f) They haven't found the plane yet, so this *must* be a red herring, because they'd have found it if the cell phones were working

None of these points really debunks/refutes anything as they all rely on assumptions about what happened, and the last one is a particularly obvious example of false logic.

Maybe I missed one post somewhere that went into some technical detail about why the phones physically could not be working. But so far all I've seen is that the phones wouldn't be working under scenarios that the poster thinks are the most likely. But until we know what actually happened to this plane, it seems to me that it's impossible to say that 100% of the phones definitively aren't working. All you can say is that they *probably* aren't. As far as I know, the authorities have never come out and said "we investigated this, and found nothing". The families and MH employees have been trying to get them to look into it; the fact that they don't seem to have ruled it out suggests to me that they either haven't even looked into it, or that they have and they actually found something that's helped inform their search, but won't say so in public because of how the families would react.

Just for the record, there have been plenty of cases of cell phones surviving plane crashes, and responders hearing phones ring as they're working rescue/recovery missions.

I appreciate your summary of the previous posts. Very helpful.

However, for selfish reasons in hoping that somehow this aircraft is intact somewhere... If this is a deeply planned terror plot, what if the phones were not on the aircraft? Kind of makes me think of an episode of "Sherlock" where the british gov't was going to blow up a plane of cadavers to make it look like a terror plot had succeeded. What if the terrorists took all f the phones and left them in Malaysia? Or what if the aircraft somehow made a landing somewhere and the phones ARE actually working, but not being answered?
 
tyler81190
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:49 pm

Quoting cjg225 (Reply 80):
With a hijacking, I have such a hard time believing it would happen so quickly with post-9/11 security protocols that not a single message would get out.

An uncomfortable thought, of course, is that the crew was in on it. Think Debt of Honor, only without the crash into the Capitol

That is my fear, is they the crew and/or some in the airline knew and were in on it, whatever "it" was.
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:52 pm

If I am correct, AF447 trigedy, the wreckage was found on Jun 6th, which was 5 days later. So in this case, given the depth in that area is relatively shallow, is it possible some pieces will show up to the surface soon?
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:53 pm

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 74):
d) The ring sound is not generated by the phone (we know; but the home network doesn't generate a ring if it hasn't located the phone)

Yes, it does. Have you never made an international call and had the ring switch from one tone to another? The first was your network trying to connect to theirs, the second was their network trying to connect to them. It's harder to notice if the tones are the same on both networks, but you will sometimes notice a 'cut' in the signal when it connects. This is exactly what is happening. This is the digital version of an operator switching you over to a trunk line. It's the exact same idea, just sans operator.

What's the theory, anyway? That all of these people are alive and well somewhere with good cell reception, everyone just lets it ring?

It's ridiculous. Honestly the meteor strike theory is more probable.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
flyKiWi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:53 pm

I know it's been discussed before, but in my opinion - if this was a hijacking, or a terrorist act, there would be somebody / some organisation taking responsibility. The 'point' of terrorism, if you can call it that.

Really interested in how this pans out...

And of course hoping for the best.
"An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind" -Gandhi
 
romeobravo
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:55 pm

is this lack of progress unprecedented?

i does feel like a real exception that not a trace has been found in such long time.

even things like af447 and sa295 had showed evidence by now. can anyone think of another investigation that moved on so slowly?
 
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cjg225
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:55 pm

Quoting smeagol (Reply 83):
If I am correct, AF447 trigedy, the wreckage was found on Jun 6th, which was 5 days later. So in this case, given the depth in that area is relatively shallow, is it possible some pieces will show up to the surface soon?

I feel like that was more of a function of the remote location of the crash site than timing of crash, but it's possible. We're starting Day 4 of light now.
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oly720man
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:56 pm

Quoting flyKiWi (Reply 85):

I know it's been discussed before, but in my opinion - if this was a hijacking, or a terrorist act, there would be somebody / some organisation taking responsibility. The 'point' of terrorism, if you can call it that.

unless it was a hijacking to get the plane and the "point" would be where the plane turned up next.
wheat and dairy can screw up your brain
 
flyKiWi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:56 pm

Quoting oly720man (Reply 88):
unless it was a hijacking to get the plane and the "point" would be where the plane turned up next.

Very true.
"An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind" -Gandhi
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:57 pm

Quoting RomeoBravo (Reply 86):

is this lack of progress unprecedented?

Not in and of itself, no. In general this is probably the most unique and bizarre aviation disaster I have heard of in over a decade.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
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Web500sjc
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:58 pm

Quoting flyKiWi (Reply 85):
if this was a hijacking,

If this was a hijack, in this day of age, there most defiantly would have been a mayday or help call over the radio.

It wasn't a hijack.

the only thing that fits in the facts, and remotely fits a hijack idea is if one of the pilots took sole control.

edit

now CNN is quoting US officials, "there are more and more indications that this is not a terror event, but we can't rule that out." The passport people bear the hallmarks of "a human smuggling ring."

I know not a flat out denial, but now we can get to the mundane talk about this disappearance.

[Edited 2014-03-10 17:04:03]

[Edited 2014-03-10 17:05:49]
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gyojoo
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Tue Mar 11, 2014 12:01 am

I was looking at Philippine Airlines Flight 434 incident and thought of this

What about a possibility of 2 individuals with a stolen passport sneaking a small bomb aboard, where their intention was to break open the security door to the cockpit.

They set the bomb on the floor in front of cockpit door and sets it off, while it didn't damage the fuselage (since it's more center of the fuselage and not strong enough to cause hull breach), it might do enough damage to avionics below the cockpit area to take out flight controls/communications/electrical loss even killing the crew in the process.
 
flyKiWi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Tue Mar 11, 2014 12:03 am

Quoting Web500sjc (Reply 91):
If this was a hijack, in this day of age, there most defiantly would have been a mayday or help call over the radio.

Or at least a 7500. Unless they really knew what they were doing ... But again, the only reason I decided to post my opinion was to counter the hijack theory. I don't believe it either. And as somebody put it before me - this has been the strangest aviation accident in quite a while. Unless there's facts we're not being told.
"An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind" -Gandhi
 
penguins
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Tue Mar 11, 2014 12:03 am

A problem I seem to see with a lot of these theories is that even if the transponder if turned off, won't the plane still return a radar signal, just with no data. Correct me if I'm wrong.
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Tue Mar 11, 2014 12:04 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 30):
What is the likelihood that anyone survived the impact, if the plane - at least the cabin - stayed intact? Eventually, though, they would run out of oxygen, which could kill them if they are not found.
Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 22):
plane may be intact, but resting at the bottom of the ocean. I know that sounds crazy. If that were the case, however, how long would it take for water to engulf the cabin?

Once a plane sinks it will more or less rapidly fill with water. An airliner is not a submarine.

Not certain how long until the plane fills but I'm pretty sure oax would drown before they succumbed to CO2 poisoning. An hour tops? This would also depend on the pilots preparing the plane for ditching by closing all the valves.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 24):
It's my understanding that aircraft have pressurized canisters on the emergency exits that, when "armed", force the door open and inflate the slide.

They are power assisted when armed but not sure of the gas canister opens the door. I think that may be electrical. Turn the handle and the door opens. The slide is then inflated with a compressed gas cartridge (CO2?). In any case same function in practice.

Quoting samair (Reply 4):
I don't understand why the authorities are still looking for wreckage, they are assuming that the aircraft has broken up (it's never good to assume anything). Based on previous 2 major 777 crashes where the fuselage has remained almost intact. Could it be possible that with a very experienced pilot the aircraft has had a very successful landing but unfortunately sank before people could evacuate?

In search and rescue, you pretty much look until you find the plane.

You're basing an assumption on intact impact. We can't do that.

If a ditching was successful, no way at least some people didn't get into rafts.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 18):


Quoting rc135x (Reply 14):
Does the 777 autopilot have an "auto level off" function, where the cruise altitude is set during climb and the airplane will automatically level off without pilot intervention?

Never flown anything that big, but my understanding is that it is a standard feature on autopilots. You set a maximum climb rate and you set a target altitude and away you go.

Yes such a function exists. More likely, the autoflight system was in VNAV mode, with a defined vertical flight path following waypoints in the FMC.

Quoting aftgaffe (Reply 29):

1) Assuming the pilots were not incapacitated (e.g. hypoxia), there has to be a amount of time (e.g. 20 minutes) after a serious event by which point it is a near certainty that the pilots will have tried to contact ATC / declare an emergency. In other words, we all understand aviate, navigate, communicate... but the chances that a serious event occurs and the pilots proceed to aviate for, say, 20 minutes without attempting any communication seems vanishingly small. Granted everything we are hypothesizing has a vanishingly small chance of happening, but is that a reasonable premise?

If you started a search for every plane is 20 minutes late checking in, there'd be a lot of searches.

There are well defined procedures for contact loss and in most cases contact loss means something pretty mundane has happened. I've been out of contact simply because the radio in that particular plane was not the best and combined with atmospheric conditions this prevented me from contacting the next station until I was closer, which took about 10 minutes. No big deal for them or me.

My point is that if contact is lost for even 20 minutes in a sparsely populated area, in most cases it is perhaps a minor equipment problem or something as silly as the pilots switching to the wrong frequency and not noticing for a bit (been there, done that). ATC will try to call, and if they can't get an answer, will call on guard frequency and/or ask other aircraft to relay. Eventually you get hold of whoever and the pilots say "oops, sorry about that" and feel a bit sheepish.

Having said all that, the fact that transponder/ADS-B stopped in an area with good coverage should raise some alerts. And it probably did, at least in so much as, "huh, that guy dropped off the screen. Let me keep an eye on that and see what happens."

Quoting aftgaffe (Reply 29):
2) Any failure that would result in a failure of the transponder and a failure of all communication abilities would be catastrophic. The longest a plane could stay aloft after that would be its glide time. At FL 350 at cruise speed, I have read this would be about 20 minutes. Give or take.

There are possible scenarios where you lose comms and still have engines. Unlikely ones, granted. What if you had an electrical fire in the radio panel? Or, and this is of course way out there, a meteor strike damaging all the antennas.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 43):
If the reports of the cell phones ringing are true, and I will try to find the article in a moment, that means a few things:

1. the phones are on
2. they are un-damaged
3. they are holding a charge
4. they have some kind of connectivity

AFAIK, all of these cell phone rumors have been false after officials have tried the phones.

Now it may be possible they are ringing, but more likely these stories about phones are because families will make themselves believe anything to keep hope alive. I would.

Quoting Stabilator (Reply 51):
Even if the plane was experiencing a catastrophic event, either the F/O or Captain would certainly make a distress call. In all my years of g/a training, there has never been an example so severe that it would require me to not send out an emergency signal. Changing the squak to general emergency doesn't take long at all. And while one pilot has "controls" the other pilot/s in the flight deck are usually handling things like emergency checks and radio calls.

AF447 never made a distress call. Yes, changing the transponder code or calling does not take long, but sometimes the crew is immersed in a problem.

Quoting penguins (Reply 55):
How have the authorities ruled out that the plane did not make it to land? What if we are searching in the wrong places?

I don't think they have ruled that out.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 59):
With AF447, everyone knew something major had happened due to the messages that were auto-sent to AF. With this one it seems to have just disappeared off the face of the planet with no wreckage after 3 days. Not one piece.

The major difference is that AF447 had automated ACARS reporting for maintenance, while MH370 seemingly did not. If AF447 hadn't had ACARS reporting, it too would have vanished like this.

Quoting Web500sjc (Reply 91):
Quoting flyKiWi (Reply 85):
if this was a hijacking,

If this was a hijack, in this day of age, there most defiantly would have been a mayday or help call over the radio.

It wasn't a hijack.

Too many assumptions. For example, what if the flight crew were the hijackers?

[Edited 2014-03-10 17:16:10]
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Tue Mar 11, 2014 12:06 am

Quoting smeagol (Reply 83):

If I am correct, AF447 trigedy, the wreckage was found on Jun 6th, which was 5 days later. So in this case, given the depth in that area is relatively shallow, is it possible some pieces will show up to the surface soon?

They found the debris in about a day or two.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
rfields5421
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Tue Mar 11, 2014 12:09 am

Quoting smeagol (Reply 83):
If I am correct, AF447 trigedy, the wreckage was found on Jun 6th, which was 5 days later.

Some debris was observe on the afternoon of June 1 from C-130 aircraft flying over the presumed area of lost contact.

Of course a C-130 can't land in mid-ocean and recover debris.

The first ships arrived at the AF447 debris location on June 3. Two male bodies and major debris were recovered on June 6.


The debris from AF447 apparently did not sink. But came from the impact which cracked the fuselage as the plane hit the water. The initially recovered debris show heavy downward crushing damage from the G forces of impact. When the BEA released the data about high vertical speed but low forward speed and a basically flat impact - it greatly confused the experts. It was hard to create a scenario where a largely intact aircraft could strike the surface in that manner.

Eventually we learned the pilots maintained lateral stability and kept the aircraft from rolling inverted as it naturally would want to do in a low airspeed stall. Many people would not have believed it possible to keep the aircraft in such an attitude for that long.

Quoting smeagol (Reply 83):
So in this case, given the depth in that area is relatively shallow, is it possible some pieces will show up to the surface soon?

Given the water is under 200 feet deep in the primary search location - the possibility of floating debris surfacing close to any wreckage exists. However, after 72 hours, almost all floatable debris would have already surfaced.
 
AR385
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Tue Mar 11, 2014 12:09 am

Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 40):
They then killed both pilots, switched off the transponder and turned the plane around in the direction of their intended target (Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur, or some other city).

If that was their intention, I think they would have picked up a day flight. Trying to find your target at night would be very hard.

Quoting PHX Flyer (Reply 73):
No, the plane must have gone down in one piece, and sunken without breaking up.

I don´t think so. Ditching is very dangerous, specially at night. That Pan Am propliner that ditched en route to Hawaii circled for hours waiting for daybreak to ditch. Even Sully´s A320 suffered major damage with what was seemingly a nice, soft landing in the river. If it ditched, I think that at least it would have broken up in a few big pieces and the engines torn off. I also think rescuers would have also picked up survivors, at least a few would have made it out.

It´s a matter of time until they find something. But I doubt they are going to find it intact. I´m also inclined to think the authorities are not telling the whole story, which is part of the reason why this has gotten more confusing by the day.
 
awthompson
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11

Tue Mar 11, 2014 12:13 am

Here's one to think about. In the SFO Asiana crash last year which was rather violent involving a collision with a sea wall followed by a semi cartwheel type manoeuvre (watch video if you haven't seen it) from wing tip to wing tip, the fuselage remained rather intact.

Older designs of aircraft including the B737/MD80 etc have been seen in accidents to break apart at various points.

I learn from this that the B777 is a sturdy design, one that might stand up better in a controlled ditching than we realize. Perhaps engines and some parts would separate, again similar to Asiana 214 but for wings to stay attached and the fuselage to stay largely in one piece.

I believe hence it is possible for 9M-MRO to have ditched with enough deceleration forces to incapacitate the majority of persons on board but for the aeroplane to stay largely intact, just like the Asiana 214 hulk, but to suffer enough perforations to sink quite rapidly.

This is the only scenario which I can see that results in very little surface debris, but at the same time accounts for lack of slides/rafts/survivors on the surface. Also it is quite unnerving that some survivors could have gotten out, only to be missed by search aircraft.

The part that is difficult to accept is how some control could have been maintained but yet there was no working equipment to enable emergency communication in some form.

Also why has an ELT signal not been received.

If in the next few days no wreckage is found, the above scenario will have to be assumed. A full seabed search will have to begin at square one where the surface search began back on Saturday. There will of course be less urgency by that stage knowing that the 'rescue' phase will be long since over and only the 'search' and 'recovery' phases will remain.

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