MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 12

SA7700 · Tue Mar 11, 2014 5:10 am

Due to length part 11 was locked for further contributions. Please feel free to continue your discussion in part 12.

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B777-200ER missing enroute KUL-PEK (by Longhornmaniac Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 2 (by LipeGIG Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 3 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 4 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 5 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 6 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 7 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines 772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 8 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 9 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 10 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

A select few members have been making remarks towards others in the “Missing Malaysia Airlines 777 threads” for speculating about the fate of 9M-MRO, her crew and passengers. Given the fact that there is so much uncertainty going on at this stage, speculation is going to be a factor on this site and also at the biggest and greatest news corporations of the globe. At least until we all have a clearer picture. Is it a perfect situation – certainly not? That being said, we need to stay dynamic in a possible fast-changing situation.

It is not unique to this incident and if we go back in history and trace remarkable aviation events we will see that speculation has been an aspect, essential to some healthy debate. It is not the intention of the moderators to stifle the opinions of members that fall within the rules-and regulations of airliners.net. All that we kindly request from all our members is to stay within the site’s parameters. Please be respectful towards one another and let us all hope for the best possible outcome. Enjoy the forums!

Regards and thanks so much for your co-operation,

SA7700

alberchico · Tue Mar 11, 2014 5:13 am

these tweets just came in from CNN :

''CNN JUST IN -- "Large solid debris" sighted in sea by Cathay Pacific Airways pilots ''

''JUST IN: Hong Kong Civil Aviation Dept to CNN: pilots spotted "large solid debris" in Sth China Sea. No proof it's from missing jetliner''

Two CNN reporters have tweeted that the Hong Kong Civil Aviation Department have spotted debris in the South China Sea. There is no confirmation yet on this debris, and CNN have not posted anything yet on their site or on their official news streams. Even if there is confirmation that debris was found, as has occurred previously it will need to undertake testing to determine whether it originated from the plane.

[Edited 2014-03-10 22:13:33]

BoeingVista · Tue Mar 11, 2014 5:17 am

From thread 11

Quoting Mikey711MN (Reply 267):
Agreed, but something that admittedly bothers me about the PR is that the statement could be technically true AND that the airline doesn't subscribe to ACARS, no?

Not trying to be pedantic here, but a few threads back seemed to mention that MH does not subscribe to ACARS. The only way to reconcile the PR statement with that is to critically evaluate the word choice.

I agree, its like officially they are supposed to have it but somehow the bill has not been paid so in actuallity they do not...

Quoting alberchico (Reply 1):

''CNN JUST IN -- "Large solid debris" sighted in sea by Cathay Pacific Airways pilots ''

This maybe the same report from yesterday, without location info its impossible to apraise its credibility.

seb146 · Tue Mar 11, 2014 5:19 am

I don't know if this has been asked yet, but I have been hearing some radars may have seen the jet make a U-turn. If we go with that, could it be possible it could be missing in the sea on the other side of the Malaysian Peninsula?

CMHFlyGuy · Tue Mar 11, 2014 5:20 am

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 2):
This maybe the same report from yesterday, without location info its impossible to apraise its credibility.

AVHerald says "they saw a large field of debris at position N9.72 E107.42 about 80nm southeast of Ho Chi Minh City"

http://avherald.com/h?article=4710c69b&opt=0

JimJupiter · Tue Mar 11, 2014 5:23 am

Quoting cmhflyguy (Reply 4):

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 2):
This maybe the same report from yesterday, without location info its impossible to apraise its credibility.

AVHerald says "they saw a large field of debris at position N9.72 E107.42 about 80nm southeast of Ho Chi Minh City"

http://avherald.com/h?article=4710c69b&opt=0

This seems to be the Vung Tau debris field, that has been looked at yesterday - without any results. The "large solid debris" reported today seems to be a new, maybe unrelated find.

CMHFlyGuy · Tue Mar 11, 2014 5:30 am

Quoting JimJupiter (Reply 5):
This seems to be the Vung Tau debris field, that has been looked at yesterday - without any results. The "large solid debris" reported today seems to be a new, maybe unrelated find.

But it mirrors exactly what CNN is reporting if you read the full AVHerald article. So I donno :-/

LittleFokker · Tue Mar 11, 2014 5:36 am

I have not followed all the threads closely but have popped in every so often to see if any updates have happened. I think it's very fascinating that it has been 3 whole days, we have 12 A.nut threads about this incident, and there is still little to no credible facts known about what happened. We don't even have a crash site pinpointed yet. I think within a few hours of AF 447, we could at least narrow down the location to within a 50 mile radius or so.

At this point, I'd believe the plane traveled through a time warp, landed at BGR, and is about to get eaten by The Langoliers.

Mikey711MN · Tue Mar 11, 2014 5:39 am

Quoting seb146 (Reply 3):
I don't know if this has been asked yet, but I have been hearing some radars may have seen the jet make a U-turn. If we go with that, could it be possible it could be missing in the sea on the other side of the Malaysian Peninsula?

That has been my own theory since the initial SAR locations "straddled" both sides of the peninsula. This was further cemented in my mind with the comments made by Malaysian civil aviation chief Azharuddin Abdul Rahman earlier when he said, in response to the obvious question as to why resources would be placed so far from the last known point of contact, "There are some things that I can tell you and some things that I can't."

Don't get me wrong...I don't consider the notion of some large conspiracy or cover up, and I safely assume that governments have their reasons for keeping things out of the public domain, including Malaysia. In this case, however, what I believe one can safely conclude is that there is some evidence on radar that leads these authorities to believe that the plane is quite a bit further south and west than initially proposed.

This seems consistent with the mantra of "aviate-navigate-communicate". It is indeed truly unfortunate that these pilots never appear to have made it to this last step in their efforts to regain control of the aircraft. But human nature is to find egress from which one enters, so perhaps the natural response was to simply "turn around", provided that the airplane was fit to do so. If there were any maintainable avionics, that seems to make the most sense in the moment.

Taken in combination, something rather catastrophic and debilitating occurred on the flight - ranging from sudden mechanical failure to terrorism, in order of most to least likely IMHO - the effects of which appear to have been unrecoverable. Let's hope the necessary information will itself be recovered in due time.

-Mike

airlanka · Tue Mar 11, 2014 5:43 am

Yes the search is already in both sides of the peninsula. In fact most of the search is in Malacca straight plus the land mass of the peninsula. See the pics in this BBC news article here: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26513077

alberchico · Tue Mar 11, 2014 5:49 am

So to summarize, the aircraft is not where it was supposed to be and it seems that the authorities know more than they are revealing ?

BestWestern · Tue Mar 11, 2014 5:55 am

Anything in the cargo manifest that deserves a closer search?

gr325 · Tue Mar 11, 2014 5:55 am

IT seems like they released a High Res satellite image so everybody can help searching.
Its a 3200 km2 area so might take a while to load

http://www.tomnod.com/nod/challenge/malaysiaairsar2014

jetblueguy22 · Tue Mar 11, 2014 5:57 am

Quoting gr325 (Reply 15):
IT seems like they released a High Res satellite image so everybody can help searching.
Its a 3200 km2 area so might take a while to load

I've tried to get on there a couple times. I either get an error, or when I get the actual page it won't load all the way. Bummer.
Pat

airlanka · Tue Mar 11, 2014 5:58 am

Quoting alberchico (Reply 12):
So to summarize, the aircraft is not where it was supposed to be and it seems that the authorities know more than they are revealing ?

Seems that way. Otherwise why should the search area to the west of peninsula in Malacca Strait and on the land together be as much as four to five times larger than the search area near the place where the aircraft's final contact position in South China Sea?

[Edited 2014-03-10 22:59:37]

wxmeddler · Tue Mar 11, 2014 6:04 am

Quoting jetblueguy22 (Reply 16):

It seems everyone has been having that issue... I think their server is just being super-overloaded at the moment. Their twitter account has said they got over 10,000 pings within the first 2 hours, and that was before it went viral. I'm seeing multiple links on Twitter, Reddit, Facebook etc. now. I'm sure the amount of traffic the site is getting from SE Asis is enormous.

Mikey711MN · Tue Mar 11, 2014 6:16 am

Quoting alberchico (Reply 12):
So to summarize, the aircraft is not where it was supposed to be and it seems that the authorities know more than they are revealing ?

I'm personally not convinced that it's an either-or choice. In some sort of disintegration or massive structural failure, would, say, a sizable portion of the wing (again, one that was subject to a significant repair) show a return on primary radar in addition to the larger craft?

In other words, if radar is capable of that type of granularity to show two objects, it would certainly explain the vow of silence behind the nearly certain radar evidence that has them searching for, in my opinion, any fallen pieces near the point of last contact and the remaining craft closer to land. But I would think it important to recover from both areas, particularly as any hypothesized debris would not have the benefit of any locators to listen to, which further explains the long-standing resource commitment to points more north and east along the original flightpath.

Food for thought,
-Mike

BA025Heavy · Tue Mar 11, 2014 6:33 am

If the aircraft did crash into the Straights of Mallaca then it would have crossed the Malaysian peninsula and surely someone would have seen or heard something. Parts of the peninsula are sparsly populated but its not like Borneo where things really can disappear!

I don't think their is some form of conspiracy going on but the Malaysian authorities performance in front of the media has been dreadful. They are clearly not revealing everything they know (in my opinion) which makes me think that what they know is not particularly flattering to Malaysia. I feel like they are managing the fall out for the country. Having said that if the Malaysian authorities know more than they are letting on surely other countries do to. I'm confused!!

flood · Tue Mar 11, 2014 6:34 am

Quoting alberchico (Reply 12):
So to summarize, the aircraft is not where it was supposed to be and it seems that the authorities know more than they are revealing ?

They either know more, or even less. The whole concept of possible (ie unknown) overflight and ending up having to search both sides of the peninsula gives me a headache. I can't help get the impression they're not being as forthcoming so as not to expose the cracks in their radar coverage.

Alternatively, they're also looking for the drug runners' aircraft which eventually ended up crashing on the West side. Rather far-fetched (or not) but expanding the search to include the Malacca Strait strikes me as bizarre.

Coal · Tue Mar 11, 2014 6:34 am

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/11/wo...irlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Read paragraph 8. It seems as they are indeed searching the Malayan peninsula, between the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea.

Cheers
Coal

flyingturtle · Tue Mar 11, 2014 6:40 am

I suppose any new debris field that is *near* to any marine flotsam already checked deserves to be checked again. It shouldn't be that the MH370 debris plays mimicry and hides behind non-suspicious flotsam like this red/orange cable drum...

Yesterday I've spend an hour looking at the tomnod images, having tagged about 40 floating objects (and in 16 cases the tagging agreed with that of other people). It's easy to get frustrated there... clouds, clouds, water, clouds, and might this be a wave crest or... no, nothing... water, water... I can feel for the SAR guys out there.

But crowd-sourced interpretation of satellite imagery is the way to. We already count refugee camps that way, and during the last tropical storm in SE Asia, the anonymous crowd has helped identifying damaged roads and bridges, thus helping the land-based disaster relief.

David

rj777 · Tue Mar 11, 2014 6:54 am

I think they should start bringing in submarines...... after all the pingers on the recorders only last about what, 2-3 months?

JimJupiter · Tue Mar 11, 2014 6:54 am

Wasn't there a new press conference due by now?

E: Or is everything said in the latest CNN article?

[Edited 2014-03-10 23:57:55]

malaysia · Tue Mar 11, 2014 6:57 am

Quoting BA025Heavy (Reply 23):
but its not like Borneo where things really can disappear!

Thanks for the reminder, new search area should be Borneo?

jetblueguy22 · Tue Mar 11, 2014 6:58 am

Quoting JimJupiter (Reply 29):
Wasn't there a new press conference due by now?

Someone in the previous thread mentioned the 3PM news conference was cancelled. Maybe they have something new they are working on? *fingers crossed*
Pat

flood · Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:00 am

Quoting JimJupiter (Reply 29):
Wasn't there a new press conference due by now?

Looks like it's about to begin.
http://www.astroawani.com/

liftsifter · Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:00 am

Quoting rj777 (Reply 28):
I think they should start bringing in submarines...... after all the pingers on the recorders only last about what, 2-3 months?

Actually, 30-Days is my understanding. Maybe the triple seven's got a longer life on them, but I'm pretty sure it's 30-days. They've found planes without pingers, far deeper than these waters. This is just pathetic, really.

Finn350 · Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:06 am

I think there are three scenarios that can be considered:

1 - Catastrophical structural or mechanical failure at the last known location. However, as no debris is found near the last known location, this scenario becomes less and less likely.

2 - Major electrical failure and the crew tries to return to Kuala Lumpur. This would explain why the transponders and ACARS lost and why no distress signal. However, is that a realistic failure mode for a modern jetliner that has multiple back up systems for electricity?

3 - Suicidal pilot switching off the transponders and ACARS and crashes the plane who knows where. If this is something that happened, the search are will eventually be huge, up to the range from the last known location.

Everything else is even less likely and remote.

The authorities probably know more than they tell (for example based on the primary radar recordings), but I fully understand they cannot speculate based on purely circumstancial evidence.

alberchico · Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:06 am

the guardian has a live blog covering the press conference :

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...rlines-plane-search-continues-live

infinit · Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:11 am

Quoting rj777 (Reply 28):
I think they should start bringing in submarines...... after all the pingers on the recorders only last about what, 2-3 months?

Singapore has sent submarines.

slinky09 · Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:11 am

Quoting alberchico (Reply 12):
So to summarize, the aircraft is not where it was supposed to be and it seems that the authorities know more than they are revealing ?

I'm veering between the Malaysian authorities do know something but are not being transparent (which is a worry), to they know absolutely nothing and it's all a wreck of a SAR mission. Howeever, if they really do know something, then why search in the Gulf of Thailand and waste all that resource, so currently I'm of the opinion that they know nothing.

If MH370 did turn back and reached the search areas where they are looking in the Malacca Strait, then that distance is about equivalent to the distance the plane had reached from Kuala Lumpur or more, so perhaps it flew for another 40 minutes or more. Then if that were the case, why still no communication unless the cockpit crew were disabled as a result of something else?

Quoting jetblueguy22 (Reply 31):
Someone in the previous thread mentioned the 3PM news conference was cancelled. Maybe they have something new they are working on? *fingers crossed*

Isn't this happening now?

tortugamon · Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:12 am

one of the passengers using a fake passport has been identified as a 19 year old from Iran and authorities believe he was trying to emigrate to Germany.

tortugamon

jetblueguy22 · Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:16 am

Maybe it is just a language barrier. But the gentleman they are interviewing seems hesitant before he speaks. It makes me think they know a lot more than they are sharing. Something just doesn't seem right about it.
Pat

slinky09 · Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:17 am

From the press conference:

"We are looking into four areas: one hikacking, two sabotage, three psychological problems of the passengers and crew and four personal problems among the passengers and crew"

But not failure of the aircraft systems, I wonder why?

GUYAIR707 · Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:18 am

Also raising doubts about the possibility of an attack, the United States extensively reviewed imagery taken by spy satellites for evidence of a mid-air explosion, but saw none, a US government source said. The source described U.S. satellite coverage of the region as thorough.

Source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...loved-ones-smartphones-active.html

So the US review is leaning towards something other than an explosion.

GUYAIR707

[Edited 2014-03-11 00:20:12]

tortugamon · Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:20 am

Quoting slinky09 (Reply 41):
But not failure of the aircraft systems, I wonder why?

Nor pilot error.... This speaker is responsible for figuring out who is on the plane and what their backgrounds are to see if there are motives for bringing down the aircraft. This is an intelligence officer of some kind, not a SAR or an airplane guy.

...At least I think. They aren't managing this well.

tortugamon

Westjet_737 · Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:20 am

Quoting slinky09 (Reply 41):

"We are looking into four areas: one hikacking, two sabotage, three psychological problems of the passengers and crew and four personal problems among the passengers and crew"

But not failure of the aircraft systems, I wonder why?

I believe the person speaking here is the Inspector General of the police. He is referring to what is being investigated by the police only.

speedbird128 · Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:21 am

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 101):
Interesting - I did not know that. Maybe it has to do with
1) Density of radar systems
2) The fact that radar was largely deployed in Europe first (due to the wars).

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 107):
Secondary has much larger range and most ATC systems do not use primary much (apparently Europe does.)

Hi rcair1... I am nearly 100% that you guys over in the USA have primary radar still. Your FAA website has this information about their integrated PSR/SSR ASR-11 equipment.

I would be surprised if there is a terminal area without some form of PSR - otherwise how would you detect those 'lost' pilots not squawking?

Quoting jetblueguy22 (Reply 40):
think they know a lot more than they are sharing

I can guarantee you that...

Dan23 · Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:22 am

Quoting slinky09 (Reply 41):
But not failure of the aircraft systems, I wonder why?

I may be incorrect but my understanding (from what was said) is that those four areas areas are with respect to the investigations being undertaken by the Police only and not the aviation investigators

Starlionblue · Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:24 am

Quoting jetblueguy22 (Reply 40):

Maybe it is just a language barrier. But the gentleman they are interviewing seems hesitant before he speaks. It makes me think they know a lot more than they are sharing. Something just doesn't seem right about it.

Language barrier is part of it. He is speaking with Malay accented English, which is rather close to Singlish. It takes a while to get used to it if you're not a local resident.

Mostly, it seems to me that he is ensuring he has everyone's attention before he starts speaking. There is a lot of chatter and he cleverly just stares them down in a gentle manner while pausing so he knows he won't have to repeat himself.

He is also rather good at managing the crowd. Small jokes. Firm hand while being outwardly gentle. Patient.

[Edited 2014-03-11 00:25:56]

[Edited 2014-03-11 00:26:42]

slinky09 · Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:29 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 43):
Nor pilot error.... This speaker is responsible for figuring out who is on the plane and what their backgrounds are to see if there are motives for bringing down the aircraft. This is an intelligence officer of some kind, not a SAR or an airplane guy.

...At least I think. They aren't managing this well.

My thoughts too, and yes I agree they are not handling it well. The police chief is now contradicting the claim that five people were no shows and had luggage unloaded. It's all a mess that doesn't build confidence.

Starlionblue · Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:29 am

Continually updated here: http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...rlines-plane-search-continues-live

[Edited 2014-03-11 03:13:49 by SA7700]

CaliAtenza · Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:31 am

Yeah this press conference was a total shit-show....seriously. It doesn't help when the media are constantly hounding the poor guy too.

CalebWilliams · Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:33 am

Quoting slinky09 (Reply 37):

yes
http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...rlines-plane-search-continues-live

Quote:
The police chief has also contradicted the earlier statement made by Malaysia’s aviation chief on Monday that five people did not board the plane. In no uncertain terms he said:

“There is no such thing as five person who did not board the plane. There is no such thing.”
“You take it from me, there were no such thing.”
“Nobody booked the ticket that did not board.”

slinky09 · Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:33 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 53):
Continually updated here: http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...-live

Although not reported there, but by the AP who say that according to the airline the west coast of the country is now the focus of the search area ... a continually developing situation!

Coal · Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:33 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 53):
Continually updated here

Thanks!

Cheers
Coal

CaliAtenza · Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:40 am

there was this on PPrune:

http://i.imgur.com/KtDYQf4.jpg

pretty creepy if true.

speedbird128 · Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:47 am

Quoting CaliAtenza (Reply 58):

Except torching the plane would result in a huge black smoke plume detectable by satellite... best just leave it alone.

Starlionblue · Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:48 am

Quoting CaliAtenza (Reply 58):

there was this on PPrune:

http://i.imgur.com/KtDYQf4.jpg

pretty creepy if true.

Very interesting analysis of a very unlikely scenario.

You could probably not do FL350 from the presumed loss of contact point though as primary radar can track. You could drop to 5000 feet until you get to open ocean and then climb again, but of course your fuel burn would go through the roof for those bits of the flight.

I'll note that a 4500ft runway is the Boeing figure, but it is for "normal service", meaning no heroic braking, a 30% safety factor and an assumption of 50ft height at the threshold. Methinks a skilled pilot could stop a 777 on a runway shorter than 3000 feet. It would be hard for him to get into the pilot's seat though as there would be no space for his gigantic brass balls.

The 3000 foot runway figure expands the possibilities considerably as you're talking a large number of tiny airports.

[Edited 2014-03-11 00:49:13]

[Edited 2014-03-11 00:49:48]

[Edited 2014-03-11 00:50:19]

redadeco · Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:51 am

Quoting CaliAtenza (Reply 58):

there was this on PPrune:

http://i.imgur.com/KtDYQf4.jpg

pretty creepy if true.

This guy has gone too, too far.

The chances this scenario would occur are very minimal if not zero. Anyway the background check on all passengers will shade more light on whether a hijacking is possible or not.

What we can say at the moment is that the 2 passengers with stolen passports are most likely Iranian illegal migrants who arranged their European trip with the middle man named Ali, I wish this guy could do the world a big favour and come out to say publicly that he planned everything for them to rule out the terrorism possibility linked with these 2 aliens.

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