Quoting 456 (Reply 48):

Sky News reported MH370 was at 3000ft at Pulau Perak. They obviously were wrong. My apologies.

Quoting polnebmit (Reply 31): Two more questions pop up as well. What was 9M-MRO layover time in KUL before the incident flight? Where did it fly in from before the incident flight?

According to FR24 I seemed that 9M-MRO did the exact same routing the say before it's disappearance, I.e. It did MH370 KUL - PEK in the early hours of 7th March, and operated the return sector PEK - KUL as MH371, arriving back in KUL around 15:40 that day. It doesn't seem to have been utilised until it operated the ill fated MH370 on the early hours of the next morning.

I know FR24 is hardly accurate, but this was what I was able to locate...

So if FR24 is indeed correct, it seemed that MRO's layover time in KUL before operating MH370 that disappeared was around 9 hours...

Probably someone has asked this question before, but if the plane actually fell to the sea, the impact into the water must have been recorded somewhere (sound travels underwater 4x times faster than in air) - Don't the military have systems to detect submarines at long distance?

or maybe passive sonar arrays from patrolling submarines?

Or earthquake sensors to detect potential tsunamis?

Quoting Megatop747-412 (Reply 52): So if FR24 is indeed correct, it seemed that MRO's layover time in KUL before operating MH370 that disappeared was around 9 hours...

Unless 9M-MRO was deployed on a short-haul flight during those 9 hours, FR24 is probably accurate.

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 45): If the plane was turning around; from what we know it started turning left. Now, for arguments sake let's assume that it turned West/NorthWest and headed on a course towards Bay of Bengal/India. Would the India radar have picked it up?

It certainly would, and I am 100% confident that Indian fighters would have been scrambled to intercept.

The only way this A/C could have crossed through some country's primary radar coverage and not trigger an alarm is if the respective country expected the A/C to be there.

Quoting richierich (Reply 28): I ask, what are the most reasonable explanations at this point?

Very nice post from you. Thanks. I agree (as an a.net member nothing else) that this is an unusual dramatic story.

Reasonable theories imo:

Hijacking. Pilots silenced or disabled by intruders, who then flew to parts unknown.

Pilot homicide/suicide among the crew. Explains the lack of communication, but not the turnaround in my view, unless it was some sort of sick joyride.

Pilot misbehavior such as Pinnacle 3701. Pilots reluctant to communicate, because they strove to disguise and distort what occurred.

General aircraft systems/structural failure. Unlikely, more unlikely even than suicide, especially given the lack of communications. When you add that up, it seems hard to imagine, given that they did keep flying.

Today, Interpol said they do NOT believe it was terror/hijacking. Which leaves us... lost.

Quoting s5daw (Reply 37): They didn't. The story was blown out from proportions by media. They issued a statement now explicitly saying they might have tracked the plane turning around. That's all. Everything else is made up!

The statement you speak of ****DID NOT**** deny the claims that they tracked the aircraft to Pulau Perak. Please read it.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 56): Today, Interpol said they do NOT believe it was terror/hijacking. Which leaves us... lost.

How can they be so sure? Do they know more than we do?

i really have no idea what happened and for me everything is possible. But for the ones with the hijack theorie or that the flight crew flew somewhere. I cant imagine that the passengers would do nothing, like try to make phone calls, start riots or whatever. It is impossible for me to accept that u can control 239 pax for a few hours and make them believe nothing is wrong.

Quoting OV735 (Reply 55): It certainly would, and I am 100% confident that Indian fighters would have been scrambled to intercept. The only way this A/C could have crossed through some country's primary radar coverage and not trigger an alarm is if the respective country expected the A/C to be there.

Certainly does not rule out a crash somewhere in the middle of the Bay of Bengal. From flightrada24 it looks like there is a section of Bay of Bengal where there isn't radar coverage; so i don't know if India (commercial or military) has the capability to recognize the presence of an aircraft there. If we do know that there is Radar coverage then at least the Indian Govt should be asked to look (if they saw an unidentified aircraft at that time) so that region can be completely ruled out. Looks like process of elimination of various regions can help with the search.

Quoting kevinkevin (Reply 41): http://www.flightradar24.com/data/airplanes/9m-mroMH371 PEK-KUL before going back out on MH370

I'm sorry something does not add up here and I may be reading into this too much. How is the flight to PEK (9M-MRO being the scheduled aircraft) on the day prior to the incident cancelled but then it shows that same aircraft (9M-MRO) carrying out the flight back to KUL from PEK hours before the incident flight? If 9M-MRO did not go to PEK in the first place the day before its dissapearance, it most likely means that it was on the ground for over 24 hours before the incident flight. Mechanical issues?

Quoting fn1001 (Reply 58): How can they be so sure? Do they know more than we do?

Interpol have said "they don't believe". By saying that does not mean they are "certain" it isn't a terror attack. They are saying it's unlikely a terror attack. Although a terror attack/hi-jack can not be ruled out.

Quoting 345tas (Reply 57): The statement you speak of ****DID NOT**** deny the claims that they tracked the aircraft to Pulau Perak. Please read it.

I did. Here it is again. Check the bold text.

OFFICIAL STATEMENT BY CHIEF OF ROYAL MALAYSIAN AIR FORCE ON BERITA HARIAN NEWS ARTICLE DATED 11th MARCH 2014 ON SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS IN THE STRAITS OF MALACCA

1. I refer to the Berita Harian news article dated 11th March 2014 on Search and Rescue Operations in the Straits of Malacca which (in Bahasa Malaysia) referred to me as making the following statements:

The RMAF Chief confirmed that RMAF Butterworth airbase detected the location signal of the airliner as indicating that it turned back from its original heading to the direction of Kota Bahru, Kelantan, and was believed to have pass through the airspace of the East Coast of and Northern Peninsular Malaysia.

The last time the plane was detected by the air control tower was in the vicinity of Pulau Perak in the Straits of Malacca at 2.40 in the morning before the signal disappeared without any trace, he said.

2. I wish to state that I did not make any such statements as above, what occurred was that the Berita Harian journalist asked me if such an incident occurred as detailed in their story, however I did not give any answer to the question, instead what I said to the journalist was “Please refer to the statement which I have already made on 9 March 2014, during the press conference with the Chief of Defence Force at the Sama-Sama Hotel, Kuala Lumpur International Airport”.

3. What I stated during that press conference was,

The RMAF has not ruled out the possibility of an air turn back on a reciprocal heading before the aircraft vanished from the radar and this resulted in the Search and Rescue Operations being widen to the vicinity of the waters of Pulau Pinang.

4. I request this misreporting be amended and corrected to prevent further misinterpretations of what is clearly an inaccurate and incorrect report.

5. Currently the RMAF is examining and analyzing all possibilities as regards to the airliner’s flight paths subsequent to its disappearance. However for the time being, it would not be appropriate for the RMAF to issue any official conclusions as to the aircraft’s flight path until a high amount of certainty and verification is achieved. However all ongoing search operations are at the moment being conducted to cover all possible areas where the aircraft could have gone down in order to ensure no possibility is overlooked.

6. In addition, I would like to state to the media that all information and developments will be released via official statements and press conferences as soon as possible and when appropriate. Our current efforts are focused upon on finding the aircraft as soon as possible.

Thank You

GENERAL TAN SRI DATO’SRI RODZALI BIN DAUD RMAF
Chief of Royal Malaysian Air Force

Released On:

11 March 14
Kuala Lumpur

Terrorist attack on Kuala Lumpur theory:

1.- All contact lost/disconnected over South China Sea.
2.- Plane turns around and flies at lower altitude over Gulf of Thailand and Malay territory.
3.- Malaysian military suspected/knew this almost from the beginning.
4.- After flying at center of Malacca straight (Indonesian/Malaysian border) plane changes course towards ESE and descends even lower to avoid radars.
5.- Plane approaches Kuala Lumpur. Attack on Petronas twin towers is suspected (hence the secrecy of Malaysian Air Force), plane is shot down by Malaysian Air Force.
6.- Malaysian government is still figuring out/struggling how to explain this (make the attack credible) to its people and to the Chinese and other governments before it directs S&R to the actual debris.

How long would a search go on before it's called off? I realize it's nowhere near that point now, but say a month goes by...or two months. When do the authorities throw up their hands and call it quits?

This whole thing is just so strange - reminds me of that TV show 'LOST" where a 777 cruising along suddenly breaks apart and falls from the sky. Of course that was caused a a completely fictious EMP

Maybe the primary target they were tracking was the aircraft that shot down the MAH aircraft.

Quoting kevinkevin (Reply 50): Fuel load would have been the right amount of fuel for it's trip length accounting for the aircraft's cargo load plus the norm fuel load for reserve. Yes, it's the pilot discretion to the final amount taken aboard. However, the dispatch office might want to know why the pilot is requesting an abnormal amount of fuel.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm assuming there would be some sort of form/record on file as to the final amount that was requested for refueling by the Captain and carried out by the ground crew? Presumably part of the pre-flight sign-offs by the crew? Assuming this is on record, I'd hope it had been checked by officials already as part of the investigation into any pilot involvement....unlikely anything odd exists, but every little detail like this needs to be reviewed in such an investigation.

I wonder if there is a life insurance scam going on with one of the flight crew / someone with access to the cockpit.

Individual needs to crash the plane to get a payout for loved ones but doesn't want the plane discovered as the revelation of an intentional crash would void the individuals life insurance payout.... takes the plane 100s/1000s miles off course into the sea with the hope that no-one ever finds it and put down as one of life's mysteries

Even if the wreckage is found washed up, the probability of the black box being found is very low if massively off course.

[Edited 2014-03-11 13:01:42]

Quoting polnebmit (Reply 61): I'm sorry something does not add up here and I may be reading into this too much. How is the flight to PEK (9M-MRO being the scheduled aircraft) on the day prior to the incident cancelled but then it shows that same aircraft (9M-MRO) carrying out the flight back to KUL from PEK hours before the incident flight? If 9M-MRO did not go to PEK in the first place the day before its dissapearance, it most likely means that it was on the ground for over 24 hours before the incident flight. Mechanical issues?

The times shown on their site shows your time zone.

9M-MRO MH371 - 7th March landed KUL from PEK 07:27AM GMT
9M-MRO MH370 - 7th March depared KUL at 16:40PM GMT approx

Over 9 hours on the ground at KUL before it's turn around to PEK on 7th March UK time. Malaysian time 00:40AM 8th March.

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 60): If we do know that there is Radar coverage then at least the Indian Govt should be asked to look (if they saw an unidentified aircraft at that time) so that region can be completely ruled out. Looks like process of elimination of various regions can help with the search.

Yes but that coverage is strategically sensitive. Some governments may be reluctant to admit the degree of sensors they have in the region. Such evidence could be used to plot an attack against them.

Quoting davs5032 (Reply 68): Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm assuming there would be some sort of form/record on file as to the final amount that was requested for refueling by the Captain and carried out by the ground crew? Presumably part of the pre-flight sign-offs by the crew? Assuming this is on record, I'd hope it had been checked by officials already as part of the investigation into any pilot involvement....unlikely anything odd exists, but every little detail like this needs to be reviewed in such an investigation.

All details about every flight are kept on record. So yes, there will be the exact fuel load of flight MH370 on file. Public release probably won't be anytime soon.

When the news broke that the search area has been expanded to the Malaccan Strait; what baffled me the most is the capability/incapability of the Militaries in that region. How can a large commercial jet fly for 50+ nautical miles undetected if it indeed made a U turn at the last point of contact and flew back? It is a large commercial jet and not a B-2 stealth bomber or an F 22 stealth fighter; how did it fly undetected and unchallenged right under their noses? If this indeed is the case, puts a spotlight on the incapabilities of the militaries there which i guess is a completely different topic for discussion.

Did this plane make it to IGARI or supposedly do its turn prior to it?

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 60): Certainly does not rule out a crash somewhere in the middle of the Bay of Bengal. From flightrada24 it looks like there is a section of Bay of Bengal where there isn't radar coverage; so i don't know if India (commercial or military) has the capability to recognize the presence of an aircraft there. If we do know that there is Radar coverage then at least the Indian Govt should be asked to look (if they saw an unidentified aircraft at that time) so that region can be completely ruled out. Looks like process of elimination of various regions can help with the search.

Well, you're probably correct that in the middle of the Bay of Bengal there is no radar coverage. Yet, why would the A/C crash there, if it is in a condition flyable enough to reach that point from Malaysia? The fuel load would allow it to proceed well over mainland India.

I have no doubt that if it was closer than 200km (or even more) to Indian coastline (and at ~FL300), the Indian military would have picked it up on their primary, and, again, intercepted.

Quoting s5daw (Reply 63): I did. Here it is again. Check the bold text.

Quoting s5daw (Reply 63): 2. I wish to state that I did not make any such statements as above

Point out to me where in the text he denied reports like these: http://news.yahoo.com/search-widened...rce=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

The only thing he is denying here is a quote attributed to him. On the reports like the ones above, he simply refused to confirm them, which is a very, very different thing to denial.

Fox news now is reporting an instant messaging service in China says many of the passenger's cell phones are still active and receiving texts................if the plane were under water this could not be possible.

As regards the question of ACARS, at least one source is reporting that Roll Royce received two ACARS messages at the beginning of the flight:

"(...)Rolls Royce, received two data reports from flight MH370 at its global engine health monitoring centre in Derby, UK, where it keeps real-time tabs on its engines in use. One was broadcast as MH370 took off from Kuala Lumpur International Airport, the other during the 777's climb out towards Beijing."

http://www.newscientist.com/article/...before-vanishing.html#.Ux9eTD9dXTo

This would appear to be consistent with the "ACARS Lite" service described earlier.

Fox news now is reporting an instant messaging service in China says many of the passenger's cell phones are still active and receiving texts................if the plane were under water this could not be possible.

Quoting christopherwoo (Reply 69): I wonder if there is a life insurance scam going on with one of the flight crew / someone with access to the cockpit. Individual needs to crash the plane to get a payout for loved ones but doesn't want the plane discovered as the revelation of an intentional crash would void the individuals life insurance payout.... takes the plane 100s/1000s miles off course into the sea with the hope that no-one ever finds it and put down as one of life's mysteries

yes, I have posted this theory a while back. But It would have to be someone w/ connections to the airline
and knowledge of A/C systems. Could One person be able to do it , IF they can incapacitate the Passengers
and cabin crew while gaining entry to the cockpit. This works against this theory, it's hard to imagine ONE person
able to do all that damage w/o distress signal.

Unless they knew how to disable the electrical system totally.
and pacify the passengers.. (riskiest but plausible is a small explosive causing decompression
after the all electrical power is gone. that would pacify the passengers as none would be able to leave their seats due
to oxygen needs) the perpetrator would have his own O2 supply.

Quoting octubre299 (Reply 78): Fox news now is reporting an instant messaging service in China says many of the passenger's cell phones are still active and receiving texts................if the plane were under water this could not be possible.

This has been explained as cell phone numbers being forwarded to mail boxes or land lines. I read that yesterday, unfortunately I cannot remember where, either tagesschau.de, NYT, or WSJ.
The point was that the ring tone would not be coming from the cell phone itself, and hence no answer from anybody either.

Quoting MayaviaERJ190 (Reply 64): 5.- Plane approaches Kuala Lumpur. Attack on Petronas twin towers is suspected (hence the secrecy of Malaysian Air Force), plane is shot down by Malaysian Air Force.

Where is the debris? Where is the oil slick? Where are the people (either on ships or land) saying "I saw this fireball and heard this BOOM in the sky"? By now ships would have spotted debris (and bodies) if that was the case. Something would have floated to shore somewhere (AI 182 had bodies and debris all over the waters which were easily spotted by a cargo ship). My money is on the Aircraft having sunk in the Ocean intact in one piece.

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 74): When the news broke that the search area has been expanded to the Malaccan Strait; what baffled me the most is the capability/incapability of the Militaries in that region. How can a large commercial jet fly for 50+ nautical miles undetected if it indeed made a U turn at the last point of contact and flew back?

It's by no means confirmed that happened. All we've heard is that there's evidence that it may have turned west. The very reasons you're giving might be the same reasons they had to look carefully before committing resources and are reluctant to say it's a solid lead.

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 74): When the news broke that the search area has been expanded to the Malaccan Strait; what baffled me the most is the capability/incapability of the Militaries in that region. How can a large commercial jet fly for 50+ nautical miles undetected if it indeed made a U turn at the last point of contact and flew back? It is a large commercial jet and not a B-2 stealth bomber or an F 22 stealth fighter; how did it fly undetected and unchallenged right under their noses? If this indeed is the case, puts a spotlight on the incapabilities of the militaries there which i guess is a completely different topic for discussion.

Quite. I'm sure the military intelligence agencies in the world have been taking note!
This could be also one reason why Malaysia may try and give the impression that they had tracked the flight all along.

[Edited 2014-03-11 13:10:11]

How can mobile phones on the ocean bed be capable of receiving phone calls and texts. If you turn your phone off, it's impossible for you to receive calls and texts. This plane is not in the ocean. It can't be...

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 32): In case of fire, you must be able to switch off everything that isn't necessary.

From an aviator's perspective, by the time the transponder is shut off in case of fire, what would be left on? To a layman, I would think the transponder is, in fact, continually necessary in flight.

Conversely, in case of massive electrical failure, what systems remain on, i.e. running on some other power source? Would the transponder kick off then? If so, are other avionics still available?

Thanks, in advance, for any insight,
-Mike

Quoting klebert (Reply 83): Quoting octubre299 (Reply 78): Fox news now is reporting an instant messaging service in China says many of the passenger's cell phones are still active and receiving texts................if the plane were under water this could not be possible. This has been explained as cell phone numbers being forwarded to mail boxes or land lines. I read that yesterday, unfortunately I cannot remember where, either tagesschau.de, NYT, or WSJ. The point was that the ring tone would not be coming from the cell phone itself, and hence no answer from anybody either.

And the same thing was happening days after AF447 crashed.

Quoting kevinkevin (Reply 70): The times shown on their site shows your time zone.9M-MRO MH371 - 7th March landed KUL from PEK 07:27AM GMT9M-MRO MH370 - 7th March depared KUL at 16:40PM GMT approxOver 9 hours on the ground at KUL before it's turn around to PEK on 7th March UK time. Malaysian time 00:40AM 8th March.

I understand. But how do you have 9M-MRO flying PEK-KUL that day as MH371 when it never even left KUL the previous day because the flight was cancelled (MH-370 on 6-Mar-2014)?

Reading Part 14 I am more or less convinced now that this a/c has been hijacked under the cover of darkness

with all communication aids severed. I believe the answer might lie in the captain's flight simulator at home if he

did not take the evidence with him.

Quoting kevinkevin (Reply 87):

Agreed, different from phone calls, text messages actually backtrack if not being able to be delivered. Companies that handle text traffic can tell if a message has been delivered or not. When you send a text message and it cannot be delivered you get a dialogue box stating so and to try later.

Any more theories about possible technical failures rather than kidnapping/terrorist stories that have been downplayed and nearly dismissed by Interpol itself ?

"Malaysian authorities taken to task by aviation experts for fuelling speculation"

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...aviation-experts-speculation-mh370

The flight crew suffering from hypoxia, could that be a 'realistic' scenario? Then, the next question would be: why was the transponder switched off even though it still continued to fly for possibly hundreds of miles?

Quoting 345tas (Reply 77): The only thing he is denying here is a quote attributed to him. On the reports like the ones above, he simply refused to confirm them, which is a very, very different thing to denial.

Well, I believe from that statement that the MAF did not make any statement about tracking 9M-MRO anywhere.

I also believe that they did not track 9M-MRO anywhere, save for the turn and descent at IGARI.

I believe that the search was directed over to the Malacca Straits because of the turn at IGARI before loss of contact.

Quoting octubre299 (Reply 81): Fox news now is reporting an instant messaging service in China says many of the passenger's cell phones are still active and receiving texts................if the plane were under water this could not be possible.

Quoting kevinkevin (Reply 87): How can mobile phones on the ocean bed be capable of receiving phone calls and texts. If you turn your phone off, it's impossible for you to receive calls and texts. This plane is not in the ocean. It can't be...

If you turn off your cell phone, your cell phone still receives texts. Text messages, voice mail, etc. are not stored on the device itself, hence the reason why you are able to retrieve/send messages through other means even if you do not have your cell phone with you. This news is coming from sources that do not understand the technological side of how wireless works.

Quoting kevinkevin (Reply 83): How can mobile phones on the ocean bed be capable of receiving phone calls and texts. If you turn your phone off, it's impossible for you to receive calls and texts. This plane is not in the ocean. It can't be...

Well, look at it this way: If some of the passengers/crew had iPhones with iMessage capabilities, texts could still be received by their iPads and Macs that too have iMessage, left switched on at home. The sender would receive the "delivered" status the same way they would should the phone have received it. Couple this with call forwarding to other cells or landlines, it's not wonder people are led to believe the phones are still functioning and receiving signals.

(On a personal note: This world could use some hope, so I pray you're right)

[Edited 2014-03-11 13:19:33]

Quoting OV735 (Reply 73): I have no doubt that if it was closer than 200km (or even more) to Indian coastline (and at ~FL300), the Indian military would have picked it up on their primary, and, again, intercepted.

True, IAF would have scrambled its fighters if an unrecognized aircraft came close to Indian airspace without identifying itself, or if it wasn't in the flight path alloted. The borders have pretty good coverage by IAF, so I doubt it came close to Indian airspace. India has radars in some of the Andaman islands too, so doubt if the aircraft came close to Indian airspace around Andamans.

Quoting polnebmit (Reply 87): I understand. But how do you have 9M-MRO flying PEK-KUL that day as MH371 when it never even left KUL the previous day because the flight was cancelled (MH-370 on 6-Mar-2014)?

That's a mystery to me. Whether that's a glitch or not, I do not know.

Quoting lszb (Reply 26): Isn't the fueling ultimately the captains decision? Couldn't it be possible that he ordered some additional fuel? I mean, if i recall correctly, sometimes they do if they check the weather reports during briefing and they decide to take some more because of tough headwinds or possible airport congestion at the destination.

Agree - would be good to see how much fuel the aircraft took on before they left ?


With the turn around that was previously unreported - would someone with radar experience explain how an unidentified aircraft that is broadcasting no data present itself ? I am thinking it will not be anything like what we see on FR24, but surely its a little more sophisticated that a light blinking on a CRT (think really old radars from the 60's movies).

would appreciate some insight into this ?

Surely if they had tracked 9M-MRO, the military would wonder about a large unidentified target heading towards Malaysia, from the direction of the South China Sea, at 1:30 in the morning. Wouldn't this generate at least interest and inquiries?

If you take a look at ship traffic at https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ , you will see the Malacca Strait is very busy. It would be quite difficult to crash there without some debris being noticed already by ships there.

But if the plane flew instead south-east towards the Riau Islands between South China Sea and Gulf of Thailand after disappearing from radar, then it would be quite difficult to find.

Quoting 345tas (Reply 74): Point out to me where in the text he denied reports like these: http://news.yahoo.com/search-widened...rce=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter The only thing he is denying here is a quote attributed to him. On the reports like the ones above, he simply refused to confirm them, which is a very, very different thing to denial.

Sir, please read the article you just linked to. They "quoted" the guy who issued the statement above like this:

"Malaysia's Berita Harian newspaper quoted air force chief Rodzali Daud as saying the plane was last detected at 2.40 a.m. by military radar near the island of Pulau Perak at the northern end of the Strait of Malacca. It was flying about 1,000 meters lower than its previous altitude, he was quoted as saying."

As you see, he is supposedly the source. He is not. This is all made up.