This is what I believe happened...

The aircraft turned back towards KL due to a pressurisation problem.
The pilots didn't put on oxygen masks in time and became unconscious, hence no distress call.
The oxygen masks in the cabin would have dropped down but the oxygen supply to the passengers wouldn't have lasted long, and they too would have quickly become unconscious.
The aircraft could then have continued flying on autopilot on a south-westerly heading out over the Indian Ocean, with everyone on board already dead.

It would eventually have run out of fuel and crashed. It could potentially be in the Indian Ocean, somewhere between South Africa and Western Australia, up to 2,500 miles from land.

A horrific thought, but possible.

If it did fly back westbound at 3000AGL as stated in reports it could of easily of climbed back up to what ever altitude it wanted after going 50 miles off shore beyond primary radar and kept flying west. If nothing is found in a few more days you are going to have to start going to every persons home that was on that flight and starting going through computers, emails, phone history. Something will trace back sooner or later.

Instead of them making a 180 deg turn what if it was only a 90 degree turn to the south the last position by FR24 which is not always the best was from 20's to 40's in degrees which would give it a heading of about 110, not sure what is off in that distance.

Could North Korea of had any military jets in the air at that time that could go that distance shoot it down some how and return?

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 198): I too. But which ship is about 25 ft wide?

I doubt we can rely on that scale.

I wish we could.

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 158): I recollect that there was a Egyptair T7 cockpit fire on the ground. Could a similar fire have knocked out all electronics in the cockpit? Could that be the explanation for a massive electrical and communications failure ultimately leading to a loss at sea?

Folks i have been doing a bit of reading up on this incident. Read page 108 of this - http://www.civilaviation.gov.eg/acci...oeing%20comments%2019-09-2012a.pdf

The F/O had to get out of the seat; hurry outside on foot and notify folks outside the gate. Looks like the fire was so severe as soon as they detected it that they had could not sit in their seats and had to get out. What if a similar situation occurred at 35000 feet on MH 370 leaving no time for the crew to make a distress call? But of course this would not explain how the plane flew after that though if it did and how it did not disintegrate on impact with water leaving floating debris.

Quoting virtual (Reply 202): This is what I believe happened...

Doesn't account for the transponder going silent.

Quoting Mark2fly1034 (Reply 203): Could North Korea of had any military jets in the air at that time that could go that distance shoot it down some how and return?

No.

Quoting virtual (Reply 202): This is what I believe happened...

How do you explain the loss of transponder and ACARS?

Quoting virtual (Reply 202):

Quoting virtual (Reply 202): This is what I believe happened... The aircraft turned back towards KL due to a pressurisation problem. The pilots didn't put on oxygen masks in time and became unconscious, hence no distress call. The oxygen masks in the cabin would have dropped down but the oxygen supply to the passengers wouldn't have lasted long, and they too would have quickly become unconscious. The aircraft could then have continued flying on autopilot on a south-westerly heading out over the Indian Ocean, with everyone on board already dead.

But again - what about the transponder? Depressurization has afflicted quite a few airplanes, and all of them had their transponders blaring during their ghost cruise (Payne Stewart, Helios, etc.).

The loss of a transponder signal is the main thing that doesn't make sense in all of the "plausible" scenarios that have been floated.

You can have an airplane catch on fire and crash in the sea and lose its transponder code, but you can't have it crash in a shallow sea without having any sign of a crashed airplane.

You can have an airplane depressurize and fly for 7 hours until it runs out of fuel and crashes in the sea or on land, but that alone wouldn't shut off its transponder.

That is why (as I explained in a previous post) it is seeming more and more likely that something outside of normal operations impacted this airplane.

Quoting planespotting (Reply 147): MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 14 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

[Edited 2014-03-11 15:08:02]

Quoting virtual (Reply 202): The aircraft turned back towards KL due to a pressurisation problem. The pilots didn't put on oxygen masks in time and became unconscious

Doubtful. If the flight deck crew didn't get their masks on within a couple of seconds, they would be out. They wouldn't be turning the plane. Either it goes on right away or nothing happens. They don't start turning back then put on their masks. It's just not plausible.

I wonder if there is a chance that they made a soft landing in the ocean and therefore there isn't much wreckage. The OZ 777 in SFO stayed largely intact and it hit a wall and did a somersault.

Then again, I would imagine that if they were able to do a soft landing they should have been able to glide back to an airport too.

tortugamon

Quoting sandyb123 (Reply 197):

This has turned up several times in the past two days, if I remember correctly. But it is false.


(Well, I've included it for future reference on the MH370 wiki.)


David

Quoting virtual (Reply 202): The aircraft turned back towards KL due to a pressurisation problem. The pilots didn't put on oxygen masks in time and became unconscious, hence no distress call.

How does this explain the transponder no longer putting out a signal.

Quoting Mark2fly1034 (Reply 203): If it did fly back westbound at 3000AGL as stated in reports

I don't think that was ever stated in reports. It descended 3K feet to 32K feet, supposedly.

At any rate, with the denial of the "military tracking" story, we don't have any of that to go on anymore.

I have followed most of the threads today and have little to add except to again express my heartfelt thoughts to the friends and family of all the passengers and crew. I can't imagine how hard this must be for them compounded by all of the uncertainty/confusion.

It is both frustrating and bothersome that there seems to be no clear leadership or order to these search efforts. Perhaps this will serve as a final wake up call to commerical aviation to consider better systems to keep track of airplanes.

I really wish Malaysia would just hand over the investigation to China.

Quoting virtual (Reply 202): The aircraft turned back towards KL due to a pressurisation problem. The pilots didn't put on oxygen masks in time and became unconscious, hence no distress call.

Then it would have shown in primary radars clearly for a long time because of engine fans facing them if altitude stayed roughly the same. Only way to avoid radars both in Malaysia and Thailand is to descend fairly fast to under maybe 1500 feet and turn back. Or turn south-east towards Riau Islands.

Has this been discussed:

http://www.redflagnews.com/headlines...warned-of-computer-takeover-of-777

Is it possible for someone either on or off the plane to"hijack" it electronically? Turn off key systems (radio, transponder, etc

At this point, I do not see how this could be anything but an intentional act - by somebody or some grouping of people.

ACARS and transponder turned off.
No distress call.
Sharp turn from near IGARI way point
Change in altitude.
Etc.

In the Payne Stewart scenario and Helios crashes, the plane was on a heading and never deviated from that heading until the final plunge. If they pilots were incapacitated during the turn, the plane would likely have spiraled and crashed or stalled from over turning. This makes 1) the change in altitude rather bizarre and 2) the controlled turn bizarre.

If there was a serious mechanical error, the crew had at least ONE HOUR to broadcast a pan-pan or a mayday. None issued.

If the crew had somehow lost all power in the cockpit, would't the RAM turbine have supplied enough power for a mayday? Again, none issued.

Quoting wjcandee (Reply 210): Doubtful. If the flight deck crew didn't get their masks on within a couple of seconds, they would be out. They wouldn't be turning the plane. Either it goes on right away or nothing happens. They don't start turning back then put on their masks. It's just not plausible.

They would have about 15-30 seconds, taking into account a rapid decompression and being active.

If they sit there calmly and just don their masks, they could have longer.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_of_useful_consciousness

No, I do not buy into CABIN DEPRESS for the following 3 reasons.

There would have been a warning of cabin pressure change in the cockpit
FIRST, before the effects were felt.

There would be a declared emegergency over the radio at that point.

The trained crew would know that they have to get the airliner below 15,000 feet or so, so as not
to kill the passengersm since the Cabin Emergency Oxygen, Is of very limted time use.

Didn't it take about 5 days to find the first pieces of debris from AF447? But then again, we were talking about an A330.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 211): The OZ 777 in SFO stayed largely intact and it hit a wall and did a somersault.

The OZ 777 came in at a controlled descent, being a regular glide slope. For all we know, this plane could have come down like a rock and shredded into little pieces, but then again, we don't know how well the 777 was designed to withstand such an impact.

Quoting rj777 (Reply 222): Didn't it take about 5 days to find the first pieces of debris from AF447? But then again, we were talking about an A330.

IIRC this was covered in one of the very first threads - people were throwing around the 5 day figure, but in reality it was around 36 hours when the first signs of debris were found.

Possible total loss of electrical power as a result of a fire?

I know the RAT will deploy but what if the fire was in that area - would it still activate - say it didn't. Where is the main battery/power Hub on a 777?

Engine thrust out of synch, resulting in a veering off course because of the above.

Minimal battery - resulting in weak/no transmission capability - mumbling?

Total Power Failure
Fly-by-wire & Total Electric Failure (by nipoel123 Feb 2 2012 in Tech Ops)

Avionics Loss
Implications Of Total Avionics Loss T7--- (by ImperialEagle Jan 17 2008 in Tech Ops)

Either way, seems possible the aircraft could be in the middle of an ocean, between Africa and Australia OR, has crashed on land in a mountainous area - where away from the attention of current SAR which is focussed on the ocean.

I do hope the outcome is positive, miracles can happen.

[Edited 2014-03-11 15:30:36]

[Edited 2014-03-11 15:31:53]

Quoting hivue (Reply 206): Doesn't account for the transponder going silent.

Or for this...

Quoting FltAdmiralRitt (Reply 221): The trained crew would know that they have to get the airliner below 15,000 feet or so, so as not

Exactly. Your first task isn't to turn around. It's to don your mask, and drop the pax masks, and then descend to a safe altitude. THEN you might turn around. But why not radio your problem to base or ATC?

The 777 takes a while to depressurize due to it's volume. If it was a rapid event, the pilots surely wouldn't have chosen to turn of the transponder and turn around as their first actions.

Quoting phantomx18 (Reply 218): Has this been discussed: http://www.redflagnews.com/headlines...warned-of-computer-takeover-of-777 Is it possible for someone either on or off the plane to"hijack" it electronically? Turn off key systems (radio, transponder, etc

This is interesting.

Several threads ago I raised the possibility that the radar signals may have been falsified to indicate that the aircraft had been in a different (virtual) location from its real location.

If so (and if possible), that would mean we have been chasing clouds (so to speak) in trying to find the wreckage or debris field.

It would also imply some sophisticated involvement, but in the morass of improbable scenarios, perhaps it needs to be investigated.

The one question I have with the theory of one of the pilots taking over the plane is that wouldn't somebody in the cabin eventually notice that something was amiss? It has happened before that a pax with a cell phone sends a text or call when an incident occurs. It seems like even if one pilot did take control and skillfully fly under the radar off course, how would he do this without the passengers noticing at some point? Especially if he did something to try to incapacitate the cabin, a text only takes a few seconds to send. You would figure someone (especially cabin crew) would realize something was wrong eventually, even if the plane was still flying off the radar...

Quoting BAeRJ100 (Reply 223): Quoting rj777 (Reply 222): Didn't it take about 5 days to find the first pieces of debris from AF447? But then again, we were talking about an A330. IIRC this was covered in one of the very first threads - people were throwing around the 5 day figure, but in reality it was around 36 hours when the first signs of debris were found.

Yes, around 36 hours. The aircaft disappeared Sunday night and the first wreckage was spotted early Tuesday.
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/31057560/n...sh-air-france-flight/#.Ux-PBs6a9oc

Quoting MSNfan (Reply 227):

You are assuming there is signal over a large body of water...

I took the liberty to do a small comparison with the picture posted above. Note that it's not measured to scale; this is just a comparison between the object in the picture and the outlines of the 772 as seen from underneath. It may very well be just a ship.

  Reference reports on mobile phones ringing and receiving texts

Please folks:
Consider these three things.

• Hearing a ring tone when you call a mobile phone does not mean the phone is ringing, or even connected to the network.
  
  
• Text messages can be 'delivered' to the system and pending delivery to the phone. Haven't you ever gotten off the plane, turned on your phone and had a several messages come through? I have.
  

AND MOST IMPORTANT
If even one mobile phone was connected to the network - we would know what tower it is talking to and could narrow down the location of the plane immediately.

• Best case - the phone is hitting more than one tower. We can narrow down the location of the phone to a quite small area. Emergency services do this all the time - on phones without GPS. I know - I'm a fire fighter and I get dispatched to calls have 'rough' locations based on cell towers and signal level.
  
  
• Worse case - with a single tower and a relative signal strength we have a radius from the tower.
  
  
• Worst case - the phone is now off. Logs on the system should show last connection and where. We have a radius.
  

If even 1 phone on the plane was connected to the network - we'd have a much smaller search region and we'd have certainty of that region.

That, above all, tells me we do not have mobile phones that are "receiving calls and texts". If we did - do you think anybody would be wasting time searching any place but the region of the connected tower?

Remember - mobile phones 'check in' with the towers regularly. They turn the power up when the tower signal is weak - that is why your battery will die quickly when you are in a weak signal area.

Quoting EricR (Reply 92): This news is coming from sources that do not understand the technological side of how wireless works.

  

Quoting MSNfan (Reply 227): The one question I have with the theory of one of the pilots taking over the plane is that wouldn't somebody in the cabin eventually notice that something was amiss? It has happened before that a pax with a cell phone sends a text or call when an incident occurs. It seems like even if one pilot did take control and skillfully fly under the radar off course, how would he do this without the passengers noticing at some point? Especially if he did something to try to incapacitate the cabin, a text only takes a few seconds to send. You would figure someone (especially cabin crew) would realize something was wrong eventually, even if the plane was still flying off the radar...

This is what's confusing me with the possibility the crew were involved. I then thought it depends how quick that happened, but from all reports the plane was hundreds of miles off course. It will be very interesting to find out where the plane is & what has been the cause.

Quoting MSNfan (Reply 227): The one question I have with the theory of one of the pilots taking over the plane is that wouldn't somebody in the cabin eventually notice that something was amiss? It has happened before that a pax with a cell phone sends a text or call when an incident occurs. It seems like even if one pilot did take control and skillfully fly under the radar off course, how would he do this without the passengers noticing at some point? Especially if he did something to try to incapacitate the cabin, a text only takes a few seconds to send. You would figure someone (especially cabin crew) would realize something was wrong eventually, even if the plane was still flying off the radar...

Wait until you are off the coast and cell phones stop communicating.
Turn off beacon.
Put on your flight deck oxygen masks.
Depressurize.
Drop the masks to reassure the pax.
Descend 3000 feet instead of 20000 feet fooling the passengers into thinking they are being saved.
Wait for oxygen system to run out.
Continue on with a ghost flight.

Not that this happened, but that's how it could happen if you had a James Bond villain type flight crew. The flight crew can easily kill all of their pax without them realizing they are being killed.

The front of the New York Times webpage has called the search to be in disarray. I'm not surprised considering the things I learned when I visited Malaysia.

My friend who lived there told me that about Internet usage in the country...that the Malaysian government would love to have a system similar to China how it can automatically censor content deemed sensitive by the authorities. But they don't because they are too disorganized to put in place such sophisticated technology.

While censoring and filtering the Internet has nothing to do with searching for a missing plane. It does speak to the fact that the Malaysian government in general is disorganized even when there is no crisis.

Quoting neoshi (Reply 229): You are assuming there is signal over a large body of water...

Wasn't this aircraft equipped with in-flight phoning capabilities?
There were some post in the previous (or the thread before that one) that suggested
that it was possible to make in-flight calls with your own phone.

Or does the aircraft still have to be over land for it to work?

However I assume that it, like all other transmitters, can be turned off from the cockpit?

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 233): Wait until you are off the coast and cell phones stop communicating. Turn off beacon. Put on your flight deck oxygen masks. Depressurize. Drop the masks to reassure the pax. Descend 3000 feet instead of 20000 feet fooling the passengers into thinking they are being saved. Wait for oxygen system to run out. Continue on with a ghost flight. Not that this happened, but that's how it could happen if you had a James Bond villain type flight crew. The flight crew can easily kill all of their pax without them realizing they are being killed

And then you get a possible answer like that!
There are quite a few possibilities with more leaning more towards the crew being involved.
I'm wondering what the range is to detect the signal sent out by the black box?
As it seems right now they are probably searching the wrong area, If they start to search more towards where the plane went off course would they then possibly detect the signal?

Cnn has a detailed map of the course change and loss of contact in the Malacca Strait now - http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/11/world/...irlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

This is from Leeham:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BicsRCFIgAAYt66.jpg

If the sea current directions are correct and plane flew a while south east while descending gradually before crashing, the debris field would be by now far away south from the current search area.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 157): The electronics had to be shutdown. The crew turned back, but passed out and the plane slowly descended on autopilot until

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 157): I'm leaning more toward that theory, especially electrical fire. The electronics had to be shutdown. The crew turned back, but passed out and the plane slowly descended on autopilot

The autopilot is electric - it would be off.
To do the "electrical failure" followed by "slow unnoticed decompress -> hypoxia" followed by "stable flight for 100's of miles" - we'd have
- Selective electrical failure that killed comms, and pressurization and pressurization alarms
- but left intact FBW and auto pilot.

How does that happen.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 177): Could you share more info on primary radar range. Based on what I read range generally it is 50NM-60NM, only few high powered radars built during WWII were 120NM-160NM. I thought they all are low powered now-a-days.

It all depends on the power. In the US the primary radar systems (thanks Speedbird128) have effective peak power of 25KW and average power of 2.1KW. They have an effective range of "up to" 60 miles.
See https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/technology/asr-11/

The Aegis cruiser (military) has a power (peak?) of 6MW - ~500 to 1000x more. I'm sure it's range is much greater - if it is turned up.

BTW - secondary radar, 160-1500W.

Quoting tim73 (Reply 195): Radar facilities are based on land, and each one has a range of about 200 miles (320 kilometers), McGuirk said.". It is unclear whether he is talking about primary or secondary.

Based on the above, I would hazard secondary. Secondary is not effective if the transponder is off.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 214): I don't think that was ever stated in reports. It descended 3K feet to 32K feet, supposedly.

I'm hearing differing reports. I think, like you, it descended 3000 feet, not TO 3000ft. If it went TO 3000ft, all hypoxia theories are out the window - well - assuming it did so relatively quickly. If it got down within a few minutes they'd probably recover.

[Edited 2014-03-11 15:55:45]

Quoting NDiesel (Reply 230): Note that it's not measured to scale;

If you can trust the scale on the Tomnod map (the "100 ft" indication), your comparison is to scale, give or take. That thing is +/- 25 ft wide. And I can't well imagine a seagoing ship with a 25 ft beam width.

Now the length of the object...

The "tail" of this thing is hard to guess due to these clouds, but I magnified the picture from http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-1103537 - and on my screen, the thing is 5.4 cm long, and the "100 ft" marker is 3.1 cm long, giving 5.4 / 3.1 * 100 = 174 ft.

If we assume that the "tail" is submerged (again - hard to guess due to the clouds), it might have a length of 208 ft, the length of a 777-200.

I'm not very knowledgeable on ships, but well...



David

Even in countries with a lot of political problems there are a lot of great profissionals who works in areas like aviation. I'm from Brazil and I remember how our navy had worked hard together with the french ones ans I think its early to complain about the Malaysian authorities. If there are an issue about security involved make sense that the government is hiding some information for some days and they may are telling just to the families.

Indeed, about the incident. It seems to be like the Cargo Flight Varig967.
I've heard once about two cases (Greece and USA) that everybody in the plane were passed out due a leak of some gas and they sent a fighter to contact the plane and the pilot saw only one person trying to contact them (as I remember it was a crew member who died within minutes).

But in this case there are not still answer by the disappearence of the radar.

Typical passengers on a flight are quite oblivious to whats going on outside, especially at night.

I could almost guarantee that if the flight map system (called 'Airshow' on Malaysia Airlines aircraft) was turned off, not a single passenger would have any idea that something was amiss. A gentle 180° turn followed by a gentle descent would not be noticed by anyone.

If one or two did feel the turn, they would just convince themselves that it was their imagination and go back to sleep. So expecting passengers to start using their mobiles may be expecting too much. They are only likely to do this if there was a commotion or a hijack as a result of forced entry to the flight deck. If it was the flight deck crew who quietly engineered a turn back with an elaborate plan in mind, then no-one would have noticed.

Frequently in Chinese airspace, and sometime over India, flights are requested by ATC to execute 360° orbits in the cruise for traffic spacing etc. On Sunday, a number of planes actually did such a 360° on the very same route over the Gulf of Thailand. Did all the passengers panic and start using their cellphones, No!

Quoting btblue (Reply 224): Either way, seems possible the aircraft could be in the middle of an ocean, between Africa and Australia OR, has crashed on land in a mountainous area - where rescuers are not looking.

I don't know much about this, but I recall many saying in previous threads that if the plane had crashed on land, the ELT would transmit a signal giving the location. Would this be prevented by electrical loss onboard?

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 240): If we assume that the "tail" is submerged (again - hard to guess due to the clouds), it might have a length of 208 ft, the length of a 777-200.

Probably wishful thinking from my end but when I lowered the exposure on the image I detected "gaps" in between the white object next to it, as if composed of six or seven floating objects. But it could be clouds, and it could be a marine vessel. Or rafts - anything is possible, I guess.

Quoting awthompson (Reply 242):

That is true, but unless there was a mass incapacitation of the passengers by the crew like described above, at some point between now and then, somebody must have realized something was wrong, although if the pilot's intention was to crash in a different location, it is possible nobody noticed anything until it was too late...

Is it possible to happen this in a 777?
Would exist another reason to the disappearence of the radar?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helios_Airways_Flight_522

"Two F-16 fighter aircraft from the Hellenic Air Force 111th Combat Wing were scrambled from Nea Anchialos Air Base to establish visual contact.[16] They intercepted the passenger jet at 11:24 and observed that the first officer was slumped motionless at the controls and the captain's seat was empty.[17] They also reported that oxygen masks were dangling in the passenger cabin.[15]

At 11:49, flight attendant Andreas Prodromou entered the cockpit and sat down in the captain's seat.[18] Prodromou held a UK Commercial Pilot License,[19] but was not qualified to fly the Boeing 737. Crash investigators concluded that Prodromou's experience was insufficient for him to gain control of the aircraft under the circumstances."

So did the plane turn west and over flew Malacca Strait or even Andaman sea? Malaysian "officials" suggested that, but later denied confirmation of such. Which is understandable as they apparently are not sure.

When the transponder stopped transmitting signal, it could very well be that the plane was outside reach of (active) military radar, at least to such an extent that no clear radar return was produced from which speed, altitude, and course could be deducted.
Perhaps some time later (say 10 - 20 minutes) a faint primary return was noted, indicating an object travelling west. The gap in signal could be reason for severe doubt.

Note that due west from the last known transponder position takes the plane well outside Malaysia, and would then cross Thailand part of the peninsula, or probably around 50NM north of Malaysia territory. This could explain why Malaysia authorities are not clear in their confirmation; they would need military radar data from Thailand to confirm. Military are not very upfront with giving out that sort of data, as outside parties could deduct sensitive information (on accuracy and range ) of military radar installations. This goes both for Malaysia and all surrounding countries.

I am pretty convinced that at the time transponder data was lost, the aircraft was not under surveillance from any Malaysian military radar. I wonder if even more than 25% of the Thailand Gulf is covered by military radar - either Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, or even Burma (at Saturday morning early). This is what making the task for Malaysia so incredible difficult.

They have no idea whether the aircraft went down near it last known transponder position, or if it continued to fly at 900 km/hr for upto 7 hrs . . . In the first case, one would assume that the search and rescue operations would be sufficiently extensive to find debris in the Thailand Gulf.
However the fact that after four days of intensive search nothing was found, seems to support the suggestion that the plane flew for considerable time after loss of transponder signal. If so, then this may no longer be a Malaysian search operation, as the plane may be thousands of kilometers away from Malaysian territory. International cooperation at all levels will be required. Not sure if Malaysia is suitable equipped (both in terms of hardware, and international diplomatic relations) to lead such an action. There are no protocols for such; this is what making the task for Malaysia so incredible difficult.

PW100

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 220): They would have about 15-30 seconds, taking into account a rapid decompression and being active.

Yeah, yeah, Wikipedia says 30-60 seconds TUC at FL350, but that's from tests on people who were expecting it. I think that when one experiences an explosive decompression, which will almost certainly burst or impair you ear drums and feel like someone hauled off and smashed you in the chest with no warning, the adrenaline dump, among other things, may affect you.

From the NTSB report on the Payne Stewart jet accident:

"Research has shown that a period of as little as 8 seconds without supplemental oxygen following rapid depressurization to about 30,000 feet (9,100 m) may cause a drop in oxygen saturation that can significantly impair cognitive functioning and increase the amount of time required to complete complex tasks."

Quoting Pygmalion (Reply 140): it is also possible that the airplane had a malfunction/fire etc that caused widespread electrical failure, the pilots made a turn back towards KL and didnt make it. Not saying this happened but it is as likely as any other theory.

One has to wonder how things would shake out if there was a fire in the avionics bay that managed to knock out the ability to communicate as well as navigate, at night, over open water, in an area with marginal to poor radar coverage. Such a scenario, even if the fire was somehow extinguished and they could continue to fly, could have disastrous results and also place the crash site well away from where anyone would expect them to be.

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 205): Folks i have been doing a bit of reading up on this incident. Read page 108 of this - http://www.civilaviation.gov.eg/acci...oeing%20comments%2019-09-2012a.pdf

SU-GBP was built in '97. From the report:

Oxygen Light Plate Wiring
The 777-200 aircraft were found to differ from Boeing’s current design. In particular, the wiring to the first officer’s oxygen mask light plate differed in the follow aspects: a wire clamp was missing, the wiring was not sleeved, and a large loop of unsupported wire was found. All of EgyptAir’s 777-200 had a similar wiring configuration at the first officer’s
oxygen mask location. On one of the 777-200 aircraft, the outer layer of wiring insulation was found damaged, although the inner layer was intact and the conductor was not exposed.

t was later determined that approximately 380 early 777 aircraft (including the accident) had been produced without sleeving on this wire run. Although the missing clamp was found on a number of 777-200 aircraft, the reason for the missing clamps could not be determined as the clamps have been part of the original design of the 777 aircraft. Boeing determined that it was appropriate to install sleeving on these wires and released a Service Bulletin (777-33- 0042, dated 9 January 2012) recommending that 777 operators inspect and if necessary repair the captain’s and first officer’s oxygen light plate wiring.


9M-MRO first flew on 14 May 2002 and it was 404th 777. It should have the wire fixed.
But so far, this is the only thing that makes sense.

Oxygen fed cockpit fire starts. The pilots try to extinguish the fire but are not successful. They are incapacitated or leave the cockpit. The autopilot continues to fly for 10 minutes. Communication is lost (pilots unable to communicate). After 10 minutes the fire kills transponder and other equipment. The plane turns left due to mechanical failures. Fire reaches the fuel tanks and the airplane explodes in air. Radar contact is lost. No debris found as most of floating materials burned in fire.

Not to keep harping on the cell phone thing, because while I do think it's a story, I don't think it's ultimately going to matter... but...

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 231): Haven't you ever gotten off the plane, turned on your phone and had a several messages come through? I have.

Yeah, but the sender didn't see those as "delivered". Not even when I'm out of the country. (I have had this experience.) In most cases, they see them as having failed even after I've received them.