Due to length part 13 was locked for further contributions. Please feel free to continue your discussion in part 14.

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B777-200ER missing enroute KUL-PEK (by Longhornmaniac Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 2 (by LipeGIG Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 3 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 4 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 5 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 6 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 7 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines 772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 8 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 9 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 10 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 12 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 13 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)


*** Out of respect to the crew, passengers and also family members; close to those onboard MH370; could we please keep science fiction theories and content related to possible future movie rights out of these threads? ***

A select few members have been making remarks towards others in the “Missing Malaysia Airlines 777 threads” for speculating about the fate of 9M-MRO, her crew and passengers. Given the fact that there is so much uncertainty going on at this stage, speculation is going to be a factor on this site and also at the biggest and greatest news corporations of the globe. At least until we all have a clearer picture. Is it a perfect situation – certainly not? That being said, we need to stay dynamic in a possible fast-changing situation.

It is not unique to this incident and if we go back in history and trace remarkable aviation events we will see that speculation has been an aspect, essential to some healthy debate. It is not the intention of the moderators to stifle the opinions of members that fall within the rules-and regulations of airliners.net. All that we kindly request from all our members is to stay within the site’s parameters. Please be respectful towards one another and let us all hope for the best possible outcome. Enjoy the forums!


Regards and thanks so much for your co-operation,

SA7700

Quoting anstar (Reply 253): Which is making me think its been shot down by Indonesia as it entered thier airspace unidentified and its all being covered up.

I don't think Indonesia is that trigger happy. Besides, that doesn't explain why the aircraft started to fly at completely opposite direction from what it was supposed to do. The normal route wouldn't take them anywhere near Indonesia.

If the military tracked the aircraft at Pulau Perak at 3000ft, wouldn't they be able to track it's final position?

Quoting pvjin (Reply 1): The normal route wouldn't take them anywhere near Indonesia.

Which would make it even more obvious it is something like a hijacked plane coming into your territory.

Whatever the fate of the aircraft, pax and crew - I do believe the governement are not sharing all the info they know in a bid to cover something up.

Quoting pvjin (Reply 1): Besides, that doesn't explain why the aircraft started to fly at completely opposite direction from what it was supposed to do. The normal route wouldn't take them anywhere near Indonesia.

Could someone please clarify this? Having just skimmed through the previous thread, I was under the impression that today's news about MS 370 having turned round (as allegedly proven by radar signals) has turned out to be an unconfirmed rumor lacking any official confirmation?

Quoting hivue (Reply 226): Looks like he's trying to undo bad journalism (which is just as difficult a task).

If you read that press release from the head of the Malaysian Air Force, he is only denying that HE said the plane was last tracked at Pulau Perak. He did not in any way deny the veracity of those claims, which are being made to CNN and Reuters by other Malaysian air force officials. If it wasn't true full stop, presumably he would have said so.

It is not bad journalism, they are simply reporting what military sources in Malaysia are telling them off the record. Or, to quote Francis Urquart (the original Frank Underwood): "you might very well think that. I couldn't possibly comment."

[Edited 2014-03-11 12:00:45]

[Edited 2014-03-11 12:01:19]

[Edited 2014-03-11 12:10:03]

If MH 370 was at ~30k feet heading west/southwest in the Strait, I wonder if any northwest heading traffic, e.g. SIN departures to Europe, was able to make a visual...?

Of course, the officials are busy walking back the assertion that the craft made the turn in the first place, so I doubt any info is forthcoming on heading and airspeed data from the previously reported last location.

-Mike

Quoting pvjin (Reply 1): I don't think Indonesia is that trigger happy. Besides, that doesn't explain why the aircraft started to fly at completely opposite direction from what it was supposed to do. The normal route wouldn't take them anywhere near Indonesia

I agree and regarding Anstar's theory about India/Pakistan, I doubt that the plane had so much fuel
that it could reach Pakistan, especially not if they had descended to 29500 feet.
Pakistan is almost 5 hours of flying from the point where they disappeared.

Quoting RJAF (Reply 245): Why did it take four days for the Malaysian Air Force to say what they are saying now?

Because so far the Malaysian responses and the handling has been unprofessional and there are too many different agencies involved on their side.
Usually this would be handled by one agency, and coordinated in the background. Here you have any and everybody comment, make allegories to European football stars (what was that about now that we are seeing the actual images of the two Iranian citizens???), even the prime ministers office comments. If they talk above each other like this in public... can you imagine what is going on behind the scenes and concerning a gvmt-owned airline? The pull and push...
I think it is simple incompetence and infighting between military, civilians, economic interests and politics.

The day has come where I actually agree with the Chinese government...

Again, this article lists some of these:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/12/world/asia/malaysia-jet.html?hp

It's only a matter of time before the talking heads figure out that RMAF knew the track of this aircraft for four days, apparently did not inform all the thousands of people looking for it in the Gulf of Thailand and wonder why.

Quoting 707lvr (Reply 9): It's only a matter of time before the talking heads figure out that RMAF knew the track of this aircraft for four days, apparently did not inform all the thousands of people looking for it in the Gulf of Thailand and wonder why.

If so, that would not only be tragic but potentially criminal.

Quoting thunderboltdrgn (Reply 7): I agree and regarding Anstar's theory about India/Pakistan, I doubt that the plane had so much fuel that it could reach Pakistan, especially not if they had descended to 29500 feet. Pakistan is almost 5 hours of flying from the point where they disappeared.

First I have heard of that theory but since its been made....
My theory about 'why 29.5K?' would be to stay below the 30K+ regular jet traffic in that area around the peninsula.
After clearing regularly used airspace they could go up to 40K.
They had over 7 hours of fuel.... they had used ~2.

Can the authorities look at satellite phone traffic in the area at the time, especially to / from fast moving objects? Surely a passenger would have had one. If a hijack then a final call may have been made. If piracy, a call to accomplices.

They have been looking to the west for days. Nobody has delayed anything.

Indeed, there were howls of outrage on these very threads that they were "wasting their time" doing so.

Map with buffers of 2500 miles and 3500 miles. KUL-PEK is roughly 2700 miles, so assuming enough fuel to make it 3500 miles (may not be a valid assumption), link to a live map:http://sandbox.maps.arcgis.com/apps/OnePane/basicviewer/index.html?appid=95cbede59b3e471eb14b52c362966934 this is what the range might look like:


SoCalGeo

Quoting AirCalSNA (Reply 256): Iranians traveling with stolen passports. Plane veers west. Military tries to cover up its failure to protect country by remaining silent for days. Seems pretty clear that the plane was hijacked. What happened after that is what is still unclear.

Iran is desperately trying to revive its position in the global community and doing a good job at that. There is no reason for them to take a drastic step like this ... that too with an aircraft from Malaysia and majority passengers from China (both friendly countries to them).

Quoting CyberEntomology (Reply 243): For what it's worth, it's about 4000 miles to Iran from Malaysia, avoiding radar. With a fairly full fuel load, that's not even remotely difficult.

... why not Pakistan? That's closer and more doable ... and frankly, given the last 20 years, Pakistan has shown us more crazies who might want to pull something like this.

Quoting pvjin (Reply 255): I don't think Indonesia is that trigger happy. Besides, that doesn't explain why the aircraft started to fly at completely opposite direction from what it was supposed to do. The normal route wouldn't take them anywhere near Indonesia.

Does Indonesian Air Force even have stand by aircraft in that region that could take such an action promptly? Most of their assets are likely to be around Java, no? Unless you are talking about ground anti-aircraft forces. In that case, see Reply 255

http://www.scramble.nl/orbats/indonesia/airforce

Quoting anstar (Reply 238): Ok I'm on the consipracy theories again.

While we are on conspiracy theories ... what about a piracy theory? Would Somalia be doable if the 777 started with maximum fuel? Or some remote islands in southern Indian Ocean?

Quoting pvjin (Reply 1): If the military tracked the aircraft at Pulau Perak at 3000ft, wouldn't they be able to track it's final position?

Not really, If it lost communications and turned west just before entering Vietnam airspace and flew in a straight line, it will only show up again as a blip only after it enters Malaysian primary radar coverage area, similarly blip disappears after it leaves Malaysian primary radar coverage area on the other side.

There is a huge gap from the time it lost communication and came back as primary target. That explains why Malaysians took long time to come out with new info. It doesn't mean they were tracking live, they probably went thru recordings and connected the dots.

This is crazy. A £300Mil plane with 230 odd people on board with a perfect safety record doesn't just up and vanish like a fart in the wind.

What we seem to know:

- Was cruising at FL350
- Radar plot and transponder shows it beginning to make an unscheduled turn when all data coming from the plane ceases abruptly.

- No wreckage of any kind found in 4 days around last known position.

- Malaysian Military now apparently coming clean about monitoring an unknown aircraft flying from the last known position of the missing 777 to the opposite side of the country and off over the Indian Ocean where it disappeared.

- No mayday signal, no communication what-so-ever.


If I didn't know any better, I'd say this was the plot for a summer blockbuster!

I have a couple of questions that maybe someone could answer. If a B777 experienced a catastrophic loss of normal electrical power, how long would the onboard batteries be able to provide backup electrical power?

Would the backup gauges such as the artificial horizon, etc still work with absolutely no electrical power available?

Quoting evomutant (Reply 13): Indeed, there were howls of outrage on these very threads that they were "wasting their time" doing so.

That's because many people thought it was impossible that the aircraft could have crossed the peninsula without being detected. As it turned out, we were right.

Quoting socalgeo (Reply 14): Map with buffers of 2500 miles and 3500 miles. KUL-PEK is roughly 2700 miles, so assuming enough fuel to make it 3500 miles (may not be a valid assumption), link to a live map:http://sandbox.maps.arcgis.com/apps/OnePane/basicviewer/index.html?appid=95cbede59b3e471eb14b52c362966934 this is what the range might look like:

Thanks  

so i guess this:

http://i.imgur.com/KtDYQf4.jpg

isn't so far fetched after all  .

Why it it even possible for transponders to be deactivated? What benefit does this confer to pilots? Because it seems to open up a major gap in aviation security - the ability to take out the transponder facilitated terrorists on 9/11, and appears that it may also be the case here.

Quoting garpd (Reply 17): - Malaysian Military now apparently coming clean about monitoring an unknown aircraft flying from the last known position of the missing 777 to the opposite side of the country and off over the Indian Ocean where it disappeared.

They are probably used to P-3s flying without transponders on, in that region, so it may not be out of norm for Malaysians.

Quoting EXMEMWIDGET (Reply 18): I have a couple of questions that maybe someone could answer. If a B777 experienced a catastrophic loss of normal electrical power, how long would the onboard batteries be able to provide backup electrical power? Would the backup gauges such as the artificial horizon, etc still work with absolutely no electrical power available?

The ISFD would become the primary flight display in such a scenario, but assuming primary bus was dead in your scenario, the ISFD would have to have an optional battery pack (some do). If it *did* have the optional battery pack, the ISFD would be good for at least 2 hours. Unfortunately the Thales ISFD is only a basic device with roll, pitch, yaw, skid/slip, airspeed and altitude. The later ones have VOR capability, but those have only shown up on aircraft manufactured in the last 3 years.

Sky News reporting the copilot has previously invited ladies into the cockpit, likely another red herring, but as part of the unfolding story:

http://news.sky.com/story/1224215/ma...ines-investigates-missing-co-pilot

Isn't the fueling ultimately the captains decision? Couldn't it be possible that he ordered some additional fuel? I mean, if i recall correctly, sometimes they do if they check the weather reports during briefing and they decide to take some more because of tough headwinds or possible airport congestion at the destination.

OK - I think there are close to 4,000 posts (or maybe more) on this disappearance, which has to be an anet record for most posts without any debris or concrete evidence.

I can't speak for all of the people who have floated hundreds of different theories but my main objective for coming on this site is to (a ) weigh plausible explanations for what is currently an unexplainable event and (b ) any news updates. Frankly, regarding the latter, although there is some repeated and rehashed information, there are people on this site who tend to get some information far quicker than mainstream media reports it in the USA.

So after almost 4 days, my conclusion is that this is one of the most unique disappearances we have ever seen given the very few bits of information we know. A modern aircraft, flown by a presumably reputable carrier, disappearing without a trace. All of this could be said about AF447 too, but there were at least tantalizing ACARS messages from that plane indicating something had gone catastrophically wrong...from MH370, we don't know much or, at least, haven't been told much. The latest information about the plane perhaps doglegging back across Malaysia and into the Malacca Strait raises even more questions than it does answers.

I ask, what are the most reasonable explanations at this point? It is hard to come up with too many realistic or rational ideas that satisfy the few facts we have been given. Was this plane hijacked and then commandeered to fly in a different direction, without communication, before crashing, either intentionally or inadvertently? Was this a rogue pilot intent on committing suicide but, for unknown reasons, flew the plane hundreds of miles off course first? Was there a combination of unlikely events such small explosion disabling crew, passengers, and radios, but not rendering the plane uncontrollable by autopilot? It all seems so "out there" and I know we won't even begin to get a clear idea until wreckage is found, assuming it really did crash (who even knows at this point...) But what are the leading theories now?

.

Quoting socalgeo (Reply 14): Map with buffers of 2500 miles and 3500 miles. KUL-PEK is roughly 2700 miles, so assuming enough fuel to make it 3500 miles (may not be a valid assumption), link to a live

I made a similar calculation and map. Even if taking into account the trajectory that could be estimated using the point of last SSR contact and the military PSR contact, and using data of the winds aloft, it would still probably be a search area of well over a million square kilometers. Factor in the oceanic currents, and the outlook is even more grim.

If the A/C really went that way, it could take years or even decades to find the wreckage (assuming there is one to be found).

Quoting nonrev (Reply 26): Sky News reporting the copilot has previously invited ladies into the cockpit, likely another red herring, but as part of the unfolding story:

I don't want to be rude, but this has been brought up (and discussed) in previous threads about ten times now. MAS has even released an official press statement addressing the story.

[Edited 2014-03-11 12:21:38]

How much fuel on board did 9M-MRO depart with that night? I'm not asking for assumptions or guesswork since we know what their destination was plus the reserves. But sometimes the crew will request extra fuel for various reasons, such as bad weather enroute or at destination etc. Is that information somehow available or is this asking too much (aka... on a need to know basis)?

Two more questions pop up as well. What was 9M-MRO layover time in KUL before the incident flight? Where did it fly in from before the incident flight?

Quoting lszb (Reply 27):

Why would the pilot want extra fuel on a flight with perfect weather. The pilot isn't the hijacker is he? Or is he?

Quoting gasman (Reply 22):

Troubleshooting malfunctioning electrical circuits.

In case of fire, you must be able to switch off everything that isn't necessary.


David

Quoting EXMEMWIDGET (Reply 18): I have a couple of questions that maybe someone could answer. If a B777 experienced a catastrophic loss of normal electrical power, how long would the onboard batteries be able to provide backup electrical power? Would the backup gauges such as the artificial horizon, etc still work with absolutely no electrical power available?

The 777 is equipped with a RAT, which would provide power indefinitely for basic instruments. If that system failed, it would fall back on batteries, and if memory serves right, the batteries provide 30 minutes or more of power for instruments and radios. I'm sure that life can be extended by turning things off, but that is the number I remember for certification. Keep in mind the back end would not be powered by these backup systems, except for EM lighting.

Quoting kevinkevin (Reply 32): Why would the pilot want extra fuel on a flight with perfect weather. The pilot isn't the hijacker is he? Or is he?

I'm not suggesting that he's a hijacker nor anything else. We do not know much as of now, but it just came to my mind as many of those range-charts started to appear in this thread. There could be other reasons which are unknown to us as of now.

Quoting evomutant (Reply 13): They have been looking to the west for days. Nobody has delayed anything. Indeed, there were howls of outrage on these very threads that they were "wasting their time" doing so.

   Can the critics tell us how many resources were removed from the initial search area?

Quoting 345tas (Reply 19): That's because many people thought it was impossible that the aircraft could have crossed the peninsula without being detected. As it turned out, we were right.

Is it so hard to believe that something made them consider the possibility the aircraft had "turned back" but, for the same reasons as we found it "impossible", needed to take a good look at the evidence before taking it seriously and didn't want to announce it as solid evidence?

Quoting AT (Reply 10): If so, that would not only be tragic but potentially criminal.

Militaries think everything is secret. To get allowance to publish any Information usually takes months.

We first wondered why SAR now is on the west coast first, a day later we got the information why.

Quoting kevinkevin (Reply 2): If the military tracked the aircraft at Pulau Perak at 3000ft, wouldn't they be able to track it's final position?

They didn't. The story was blown out from proportions by media. They issued a statement now explicitly saying they might have tracked the plane turning around. That's all. Everything else is made up!

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 30):

With respect, 14 pages, ~3000 posts and seemingly a new item of news, apologise I didn't have the time to read all of the above. Wasn't mentioned in this part, and was a news item in the last hour. I'm not sure your issue, but if it is clogging up the thread, your pointless rebuke has done exactly the same.

Regarding the two Iranians who used the stolen passports: IF they were responsiblefor this disappearance, I believe we need to separate the fact that they were Iranian from the possibility that Iran was responsible in any form. Lets allow the proper authorities make that connection.

Now, my question is, who are the proper authorities? I'm losing faith in the Malaysians.

Quoting polnebmit (Reply 31): Two more questions pop up as well. What was 9M-MRO layover time in KUL before the incident flight? Where did it fly in from before the incident flight?

http://www.flightradar24.com/data/airplanes/9m-mro

MH371 PEK-KUL before going back out on MH370.

Interesting article on CNet. It does appear that the satellite company's website is overloaded at the moment.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-576...cid=e404&ttag=e404&ftag=CAD1acfa04

Forgive me if this has been said before, but Aceh is literally just across the water from their last reported position and a known hotbed for terrorism. Have the indonesian air force indicated if they saw anything? Any chance it could have landed at LSW or another strip in Aceh?

Quoting OV735 (Reply 29): Quoting socalgeo (Reply 14):Map with buffers of 2500 miles and 3500 miles. KUL-PEK is roughly 2700 miles, so assuming enough fuel to make it 3500 miles (may not be a valid assumption), link to a live I made a similar calculation and map. Even if taking into account the trajectory that could be estimated using the point of last SSR contact and the military PSR contact, and using data of the winds aloft, it would still probably be a search area of well over a million square kilometers. Factor in the oceanic currents, and the outlook is even more grim. If the A/C really went that way, it could take years or even decades to find the wreckage (assuming there is one to be found).

I have similar thoughts. Perhaps the crowdsourcing idea for very recent sat images is an answer, but when I tried that site last night it was non-functional. I suspect they werent ready for an onslaught of users wanting to help. I'll keep trying over the next few days and if the performance improves I'll let you know.

SoCalGeo

Quoting s5daw (Reply 37): might have tracked the plane turning around.

If the plane was turning around; from what we know it started turning left. Now, for arguments sake let's assume that it turned West/NorthWest and headed on a course towards Bay of Bengal/India. Would the India radar have picked it up?

Quoting EXMEMWIDGET (Reply 42): Interesting article on CNet. It does appear that the satellite company's website is overloaded at the moment. http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-576...cid=e404&ttag=e404&ftag=CAD1acfa04

I have tried a half dozen times today and so far I cant get it to load.

Malaysia Airlines is a state owned company in financial trouble pre-crash. Any charge of systematic poor maintenance is very likely going to result in their bankruptcy. They, not Interpol, have been pushing claims of terror and kidnapping and personality issues. Extrapolate the incompetency we see in public press announcements and the corruption (sodomy charges against opposition leaders) you see in the political sphere, to any investigation.

Americans generally want to believe that other places are like us when it comes to seeking the truth in accidents, but it just isn't so.

http://www.themalaymailonline.com/mo...oss-bt-suggests-bankruptcy-for-mas

[Edited 2014-03-11 12:38:25]

Quoting kevinkevin (Reply 2):

You are not the first, dont get me wrong but where is that 3000ft coming from?

3000ft is only mentioned as a decrease in altitude when it did the heading change to the west?


Btw. They have been looking in the pulau penak quadrant the past days already(iirc some were already saying here that that was useless) but shouldnt they also look over indonesia or even the indian ocean?
As said earlier, just follow the heading the plane was flying on the primary radar which is confirmed today?

Given the time it took for the relevant authorities to make the claim that they had primary radar of mh370 in the strait, and the admission that there was a gap between the loss of secondary/transponder data and the acquisition of a primary return, and the way everything else has been handled.... I am not exactly confident that what they tracked really was mh370. It may be yet another red herring, or misinterpreted data, or outright data fabrication.

There is an air of futility starting to go along with this investigation, in my opinion.

I'd like to see responsibility for the investigation handed over to a team or country better equipped manage it. I know that can be perceived as a slight against Malaysia - but it's not meant as such.

Quoting lszb (Reply 34): I'm not suggesting that he's a hijacker nor anything else. We do not know much as of now, but it just came to my mind as many of those range-charts started to appear in this thread. There could be other reasons which are unknown to us as of now.

Fuel load would have been the right amount of fuel for it's trip length accounting for the aircraft's cargo load plus the norm fuel load for reserve. Yes, it's the pilot discretion to the final amount taken aboard. However, the dispatch office might want to know why the pilot is requesting an abnormal amount of fuel.