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Shanwick1011Z
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:07 pm

Back to simplicity.

Of the trillions and trillions of words printed on this incident has it yet been printed in the public domain

whether this aircraft carried more fuel than the previous three trips on this route?

That is a question that does not require knowledge of fancy electronics or interpretation of radar returns.

Had this incident happened in the USA it would have been in the public domain long ago.
 
TreeHillRavens
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:07 pm

Quoting polnebmit (Reply 25):
Is there any information as to why it seems that 9M-MRO was grounded in KUL for an extended period of time after it came from HKG? According to FR24, 9M-MRO flew in from PEK hours earlier as MH371 before turning around as incident flight MH370, but interestingly flight MH370 to PEK using 9M-MRO had been cancelled the day before which makes it impossible to have it come in from PEK if it never got there in first place.
Quoting Tobias2702 (Reply 30):
Strange this doesn't seem to have been discussed here before (at least I can't remember). But according to flightstats.com, on Friday, 7 March, flight MH 370 was on time, only the return MH 371 was cancelled. This would mean a Malaysian 777-200 having been stranded at PEK?!

9M-MRO operated flight MH73 from HKG back to KUL before it operated as flight MH370 from KUL to PEK about 6 hours 26 minutes later.

MH371 on March 8th, 2014 was cancelled as the incoming plane that was supposed to fly back to KUL as MH371 never landed.

[Edited 2014-03-12 06:15:00]
 
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BaconButty
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:07 pm

Quoting rj777 (Reply 36):
the info that we all suspect that they're hiding.

What info are they supposed to be hiding? Do you think they know where the aircraft came down but are keeping it a secret?

I don't have any reason to suspect they're hiding anything. They have the last known position in the gulf of Thailand, and a possible radar return in the Malacca Strait. Their search areas are entirely consistent with that information (all the seemingly contradictory stuff has come from the press). If nothing is found in those areas you keep widening until something is. Or until something washes up.

The spoilt "I want wreckage and I want it NOW!!!" stuff is a bit embarrassing IMO. If, when we have an idea what happened, it becomes apparent that the Malaysian (or Vietnamese, Thai, Cambodian, Indonesian etc etc - let's not forget the aircraft could have come down in their territory) SAR effort should have found it earlier, then lay into them. But the situation where an aircraft disappears off secondary radar, stops sending ACARS messages yet the wreckage is not relatively close to that point would have any nation scratching their heads.
Down with that sort of thing!
 
David L
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:09 pm

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 47):
Meaning what, David-L? That I'm wrong, or that the Indonesian aviation authorities are way short of being 100% competent in many areas?

   No. Meaning the reason for extending the search to the Malacca Strait (no mention of "diverting resources") has been explained and discussed for a couple of days now.
 
LTC8K6
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:12 pm

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 47):


Meaning what, David-L? That I'm wrong, or that the Indonesian aviation authorities are way short of being 100% competent in many areas?

IIRC, they do have some radar data indicating a heading change before the disappearance. A left turn. The search over towards the Malacca Straights was due to that last heading indication.
 
JimJupiter
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:14 pm

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 17):
I can't for the life of me work out why the authorities would divert any resources at all to searching an area to the west-north-west, over the Malacca Strait?

Quoting the Guardian:

"An official gave the position of the last radar signal at 2.15am as 200 miles north west of the mainland. But he said this needed to be corroborated."

http://www.theguardian.com/world/blo...nded-into-andaman-sea-live-updates
One is born, one runs up bills, one dies.
 
PhilV
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:15 pm

Quoting thunderboltdrgn (Reply 49):
Well I would think that they still would have been able to send out a mayday or
change the Squawk code or something like that,.

I would assume that as well..

But, lack of situational awareness... who knows.
 
PA515
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:15 pm

Quoting polnebmit (Reply 25):
MH370 to PEK using 9M-MRO had been cancelled the day before

The 'cancelled' annotation for the 06 Mar on the 9M-MRO flightradar24 summary is an error. If you replay from 1650 UTC on 06 Mar you get 9M-MRO doing MH370. It was MH370 on 06 Mar and 07 Mar.

But the flights departed 0049 07 Mar and 0041 08 Mar local time

PA515

[Edited 2014-03-12 06:20:01]
 
David L
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:16 pm

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 53):
Their search areas are entirely consistent with that information (all the seemingly contradictory stuff has come from the press)

   Something that many are still failing to realise.
 
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BoeingVista
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:16 pm

Quoting Tobias2702 (Reply 30):
Strange this doesn't seem to have been discussed here before (at least I can't remember). But according to flightstats.com, on Friday, 7 March, flight MH 370 was on time, only the return MH 371 was cancelled. This would mean a Malaysian 777-200 having been stranded at PEK?!

Yup, I noticed this when I looked up 9M-MRO the day after the accident, I assumed that it was bad data or it was ferried back empty (which should have been caught in FR24). I guess it is surprising that nobody has mentioned this anomoly, you would have expected the press to delve into if the cancelled flight had any connection to the disapearence.
BV
 
lnglive1011yyz
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:20 pm

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 26):
Possibility c) They don't want to talk about it until they have something definite to talk about, and/or they don't to taint the rest of the investigation. Discretion can be a good thing in these situations.

Why would they start now? They haven't shown ANY discretion at all IMHO through out this entire thing.

I agree with your statement though, discretion should be exercised, but hasn't at all.

Quoting PhilV (Reply 45):

I came across this on a 777.

http://www.aaib.gov.uk/publications/...2_2007__boeing_777_222__n786ua.cfm

This event happening during cruise would be..... alt least not that good.

Good find - this might explain the sudden nature of the plane disappearing off the map, and possibly being unable to communicate verbally.

1011yyz
Pack your bags, we're going on a sympathy trip!
 
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breiz
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:21 pm

China is reported to divert 10 high-resolution satellites to scan the area:
http://www.todayonline.com/world/asi...deploys-10-satellites-search-mh370
I have a few questions about that:
- Are so many satellites needed to cover the area?
- Has China really that many "spy" satellites available in suitable orbits to allow an efficient diversion?
These satellites are supposed to be used to find debris, or more probably fields of debris.
- Can't weather satellites past pictures be used to try and see the plane when she was still flying?
 
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Gonzalo
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:24 pm

Quoting PhilV (Reply 45):
Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 39):
I came across this on a 777.

http://www.aaib.gov.uk/publications/...2_2007__boeing_777_222__n786ua.cfm

This event happening during cruise would be..... alt least not that good.

Regards.

Yes but N786UA ( the 777 involved in that incident ) was delivered in 1997, well before Swiss 111. Probably they used MPET in that aircraft and I'm not sure if the TSB recommendation after Swiss 111 included all aircraft ( i.e. manufactured before the recommendation ) or applied only to the new frames after the report.

In any case, the same report mentions 11 similar incidents in 777's, it would be nice to see how old were the other 10 !!

Rgds.

G.
Gear Up!!: DC-3 / EMB-110 / FH-227 / A318-19-20-21 / B732 / B763 / B789 / B788 / A343 / ATR72-600
 
na
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:27 pm

To judge how big the combined search areas are: 27.000 square miles/70.000 square kms are roughly the size of the German state of Bavaria or the US state of South Carolina, and a bit smaller than Scotland. Not that vast not to be able to find something in a few days time I would say, before I was checking it I thought it was more.
 
anatolialevant
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:27 pm

Hi! I've been reading A.Net for a long time, but for this moment, I am intrigued to talk my own speculation (I know, it's tiring to see another speculation):

1. When they asked to switch radio at IGARI, they acknowledge, and after that a tech problem arises.
2. Possibly due to completely occupied by fixing (or even analyzing) the problem, they forgot to switch radio comms, and flew outside Malaysia ARTCC. With copilot lacking the very deep knowledge of 777 (I heard that the copilot is just transitioning to 777 for short amount of time), he surely not helpful enough to solve the situation fast.
3. By the time they realized the situation to be dangerous, they radio MAYDAY, but to no avail since they have left the radio range of Malaysia ARTCC.
4. The pilots think they lose all comms (and on later stage of flight, they did), and trying to turn back, but the situation worsened. Mixed with spatial disorientation, confused, and heavily stressed, the AVIATE and NAVIGATE requirements weren't done properly, and the crash happened.

Some questions will surely arise from my scenario, and here's my answer:
1. Why don't they simply change comm frequency instead?
- Again, fully occupied with fixing the problems, they now forget to switch comm. Even if they realize they have to switch, they might be to stressed enough to forget the frequency number (Short-Term Memory Loss due to stress?).

2. Transponder cutout at IGARI?
- I guess this is where the real problem is dangerous enough for them, and the tech fault have killed the transponder.

3. Why not descending and landing at Ho Chi Minh City?
- The airport is surely capable of handling 777 (at least VN has few of them), but with possible loss of navigation aid, spatial disorientation and heavy stresses, they might forget about the airport itself. Or, maybe even worse, they actually trying to, but lost on the path to SGN, decided to fly low by the Strait of Malacca (thinking they're still at the gulf of Vietnam) to help them seeing the airport, and that's where they fly too low and crashed (or maybe CFIT).

A mixup between losing situational awareness, spatial disorientation (due to night flight), and possible loss of navigational instruments is more believable to me than some hijacking story. I think something like EA Flight 401, but with real deadly problems.
Again, this is just my 2 cents, and my own guess on scenario. In this total chaos, anything is possible, even the simplest error can be the nail in the coffin for them. Praying the best for the families and the SAR teams.
 
katekebo
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:33 pm

Found this on NHK:
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/english/news/20140312_26.html

This is the interesting part:

Quote:
The sources say the Malaysian military tracked the object flying westward for 70 minutes. They say it crossed the Malay Peninsula and its signal disappeared at 2:40 AM on Saturday over the Strait of Malacca.

This is about 550 kilometers away from the point where the plane disappeared.

But government officials analyzed the military data and said the radar signal was weaker than that of an ordinary passenger jet. They said the object was also flying slower than usual for an aircraft.

Here is my 100% speculative addition to the discussion.

What if the object tracked by radar was an unmanned military drone (American, Chinese, Malay, Vietnamese, ...) which crossed the flighpath of MH370. The pilots spotted the drone on collision path toward their airplane and the aircraft broke up due to a catastrophic structural failure during a high-G emergency avoidance maneuver. This could explain:

1) Lack of distress call
2) Anybody responsible for the drone will stay tight-lipped and will take steps to maintain the information as secret as possible.

Of course this does not explain why no rests of the crashed airplane have been found to date. Or maybe something has been found but because the military is involved the information is kept secret.
 
LTC8K6
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:33 pm

Quoting JimJupiter (Reply 56):
"An official gave the position of the last radar signal at 2.15am as 200 miles north west of the mainland. But he said this needed to be corroborated."

IOW, that probably was not 9M-MRO...
 
passenger8170
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:34 pm

New member to airliners.net. I've had an interest in plane crashes for many years now and have loved the discussion so far despite it being under the worst of circumstances.

The discussion has mainly focused on the plane and the technology but I'd like to hear more about the people. For example, the plane was mostly filled with Chinese citizens. If they discovered the plane was off course and being hijacked would they have tried to mount some kind assault on the cockpit like Flight 93. Is it in their culture to do something like that? Or, would they be obedient and allow the hijacker(s) to go about their plan? The answer could affect how far the plane went before crashing (I believe that's what happened, by the way.)

And if the passengers were the type to try to take back the jet, and maybe this is an industry secret, how impenetrable are the cockpit doors? If a hijacker has locked himself in the cockpit, besides knowing the secret code, is there really no way for passengers to break in over the course of say 10 minutes or 20 minutes using whatever they can find in the passenger area? Yes, I suppose at that point the hijacker may point the jet at the ocean. But, if the hijacker was intent on actually landing the plane on a runway, could the passengers break in and somehow get back control of the plane?

I've heard a lot of glowing remarks made about the captain. And not so glowing stories about the First Officer. I'm wondering if the Captain would've gone along with the FO regarding allowing people into the cockpit during the flight. The Captain seemed like a "go by the book" type of guy. But, could he have let his guard down and they let in the wrong person or persons? Having said that, I think the pilot and co-pilot should be under a lot of suspicion. If it was some kind of suicide by one of them, could the reason be that those pics of the co-pilot allowing those women into the cockpit were going to come out and the co-pilot was going to get fired, and he was distraught over that? As for the captain, I haven't read anywhere of him having any family? Divorced? Children? Being a single man might make it easier for him to decide to take his own life.

Once again, I'd like to hear more about the people onboard. Also, does anybody know how long it would take to at least do a minimal in-depth check of the passengers and their backgrounds? Would that have started already? Yes, I know about the guys with the fake passports. But, the rest of the people who were flying with real ones. As for the pilots, at what point do authorities start looking at their home computers and what they've been doing on the Internet?

Thanks.

[Edited 2014-03-12 06:38:43]

[Edited 2014-03-12 06:39:55]
 
dtfg
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:39 pm

Quoting breiz (Reply 62):
China is reported to divert 10 high-resolution satellites to scan the area:
http://www.todayonline.com/world/asi...deploys-10-satellites-search-mh370
I have a few questions about that:
- Are so many satellites needed to cover the area?
- Has China really that many "spy" satellites available in suitable orbits to allow an efficient diversion?
These satellites are supposed to be used to find debris, or more probably fields of debris.
- Can't weather satellites past pictures be used to try and see the plane when she was still flying?


You know, the news is more than likely to serve for propaganda purposes. The Gov wants to convince the public that they are doing whatever they can to find the plane. Actually, AFAIK, many of the satellites they used are not "spy" satellites, rather, they are weather satellites and communication satellites just to provide weather information and support communications.

yb

[Edited 2014-03-12 06:43:10]
 
captainx
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:43 pm

A couple of questions:

1. If it had so much fuel wouldn't it make sense to project out the flightpath to see when it ran out of fuel - Indian Ocean?
2. Just because they had it on radar in the Strait, what suggests it crashed there?
3. If it continued to the SW, woudn't it show on Indonesian radar if in fact it overflew the peninsula?
4. One expert claims if a electical problem caused the autopilot to reset, that the programmed route would be canceled and the autopilot would follow the heading of the departiure runway. Any thoughts about that?
5. Since it has been shown that an airliner can land on water without breaking up (USAIR 1549), it's conceiveable that it toucheddown intact and then sank leaving almost no surface trace, yes?

[Edited 2014-03-12 06:44:57]

[Edited 2014-03-12 07:03:55]
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:44 pm

Quoting breiz (Reply 61):
- Can't weather satellites past pictures be used to try and see the plane when she was still flying?

I don't know, but I don't think the weather satellites have the "zoom" needed for that.

Here are some example of weather satellites:
http://www.smhi.se/vadret/nederbord-molnighet/satellit-norden-rgb
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES13312014071PfN3sz.jpg
http://www.sat24.com/

[Edited 2014-03-12 06:45:27]
Like a thunderbolt of lightning the Dragon roars across the sky. Il Drago Ruggente
 
boacvc10
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:47 pm

Has Thailand reported on SAR activities / reports in the Malaysia/Thailand border region? If the aircraft did cross the peninsula then it could have (albeit strangely) diverted north once again if it had control issues.
Up, up and Away!
 
Backseater
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:49 pm

What is the likelihood of 3 possible scenarios in this agonizing saga?
1) the airplane suffers a catastrophic system failure while near its last ADS-B recorded position
- airplane spirals down, down angle increases, CG moves further forward due to load shift
- speed increases leading to aerodynamic break up (engines away, wings off, ...) but the fuselage remains mostly intact
- pieces fall into the sea: engines sink immediately, wings (? can they sink within 4 hours i.e. before daybreak, how long will they float with their amount of fuel?)
- let us assume that the fuselage hits the water at high speed almost vertically in an area were the depth (60m+/-15m) is about the same as the length of the aircraft(64m). What happens? Fuselage explodes on contact? Reaches the silt at the bottom and crumples on itself/ I don't know if there is any way to avoid a significant debris field.

2) terrorists take over
- only seems plausible if they have found a new method to penetrate the cockpit without giving any warning whatsoever to the cockpit crew
- they know enough to flip off all the necessary circuit breakers
- they want to keep that method hidden to apply it again, maybe on a larger scale and in simultaneity
- they now drop altitude and fly away from land to prevent any passenger from placing a cell call
- they fly away silently looking for a greater depth to ditch the airplane

3) a rogue FO, for instance
- the captain notices some event affecting the professional competence of the FO
- discussion, captain says that he has to report the fault, FO, pleads but to no avail, FO gets mad because he is sure that will end his career and hits the captain but without killing him. Captain is unconscious with duct tape on his mouth (is any duct tape usually onboard?) .
- FO is now on a one-way street, there is no turning back
- Circuit breakers off for ADS-B, ACARS, ... but not VHF. Drop altitude, As before fly away from land to silence any cell phones.
- Call comes in at 13:40 from another aircraft ahead as requested by Vietnamese ATC. Lots of static because aircraft are father apart than they should be according to Flight Plan and at the limit of visibility (400kms?) due to the lower altitude of MH370. FO answers, Muffled mumbling from captain in the background
- FO needs a plan. Ditch the aircraft where he has a (small) chance to survive (?) while leaving 0 chance to the captain. Deep water to sink evidence...

Of course, as they say in the movie disclaimer "Any resemblance to real persons, living or dead, is purely coincidental."
 
mandala499
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:53 pm

From the previous thread:

Quoting giopan1975 (Reply 101):

OK then it is all about money and who cares about locating 200+ missed people (dead or alive) in the first seconds of communication loss?

What kind of system do you want?
Streaming blackboxes through satcom? I asked a question that the advocators of this has so far been unable to answer: "What happens when the airplane's upside down?"

Scrap that idea... that'll just cost too much. Does that mean we stop there? of course not!
There are other ways to provide location position... and some ways are better for emergencies than others. My work covers this... and you have no idea how hard it is to convince the airlines.

Satcoms will always have a problem of what happens when the satellite is shadowed by the aircraft in certain attitudes. So throw out streaming... but some systems are capable of blind transmission through multiple antenas or select antennas depending on the attitude.

Then you go across power and position source issues. If we look at MH370, who knows whether any nav systems were still working or not. So this system, may have to get info from somewhere else, where? GPS? Again, what happens when you're upside down? GPSIRS combo? That may cost some more...

Then which of the electric systems do you want to power this system? The AC buses, or the DC buses, or the Essential DC buses? Again, the reasons all have to be justified and quantified in terms of cost vs benefit.

And then even after you go through all that, the airline may just say, "Nah, I don't like it" and walk out of the meeting. (Has happened!)

It is possible, but the industry needs to come up with recommended standards on how this is going to be done.

Quoting dirktraveller (Reply 249):

Few years ago I did follow the development of search operations when Adam Air flight was missing in Indonesia. The authorities did also lacked experience on conducting the operation, rumours were also spread around. But if I recalled correctly the amount of information they released throughout the search, despite little, were somehow being handled better and more consistently (e.g. not being retracted or altered time to time) than what we seen today with MH370. Any thoughts??

You have got to be kidding me! It was a total disaster with many in the "authorities" not adhering to the SAR single gateway... etc...
1. The people reportedly survived in a mountain area... That got everyone in a frenzy... turned out to be false.
2. Fisherman seeing a plane crash landing near Palu... turned out to be false.
3. Witnesses reporting airplane in central part of Sulawesi... turned out to be false.
Etc etc.
Back then, SAR assets were diverted because of these "reports". Politicians or local authorities overrode the SAR command (they wanna be heros)... etc.
There was nothing to say, alter or retract, because they never said anything, and when the pieces were found, those who were in the wrong prior to pieces turning up, even tried to sabotage, etc, etc.

When you have the head of the DGCA leading the press conference, holding a piece of paper and saying it shows the aircraft involved had no defects so there was no maintenance or safety issues... well, it doesn't need to be altered... It was too much of a damage, and too much of a lie that no one believed him (not surprised he was replaced not long after).

Please don't tell me the handling of KI574 is better than MH370...

---
Present Part:

Quoting giopan1975 (Reply 3):
The farthest they drifted off course without mayday, the less possible the initial event was devastating (as in explosion). But they couldnt have gone so far (more than 5 minutes into emergency) without notifying of an emergency. Then again no sign of debris close to point where communication was lost.

The more days without debris findings, the less possible the initial event was devastating.

There are several scenarios that can make them go so far without notifying of an emergency, and some can go as far as explaining why no other communications were made.

Quoting gulfstream650 (Reply 5):
Has anyone plugged those GPS co-ords into Google earth ? Where does it take us?

It takes us 320NM away from IGARI and about 50NM south of an airway they could have used for the route.
Under Lost Comms, you do go along as best as you can to your flight plan or land where and when you think it's safe... if that's the case this time, they didn't make it as far as they wanted.

Quoting Dalavia (Reply 4):
It strikes me as the most credible report about this disappearance from any source.

It is a "minimum course change" possibility that would not attract any air defence attention as the aircraft would remain outside sovereign waters of Vietnam.

Quoting liquidair (Reply 14):
I want to know why Mandala doesn't buy them flying back over Malaysia.

Because if you turn back and made it over Malaysia, primary radars should have caught them... Kuantan, Gong Kedak, and another one at the border are 3 along the east coast that should have picked them up (unless RMAF has decided to shut down a few or move them elsewhere)... Kuantan and Gong Kedak are also RMAF's "fightertown" as far as I remember.
Then that area between IGARI and the coast, have some sea traffic, and also oil rigs.
And Flying low at night nap of the earth on a 777 to not be detected by radar = almost zero chance of succeeding.

Quoting liquidair (Reply 14):
with regards to the eyewitness report from the oil rig, I'd be amazed if you could spot a fire going out at 70km away. Even if the fire going out was point of impact, Jet A is volatile enough to keep burning. And there would be massive amounts of smoke, debris and other flights would have seen this in such clear skies.

I'm discounting the distance of where he think the fireball is, but just his observation location is "sensible enough" to comprehend on the possibility. Whether it turns out to be true or not, we simply don't know yet, but this certainly makes more sense than the Straits of Malacca arguments.

Quoting liquidair (Reply 14):
would certainly fit in with Mandala's main preoccupation with the FO... If something went wrong, they could have gone miles off course... To an area where there is less radar coverage.... Borneo maybe? Speculation again.... I fear you're right. We know nothing.

I have been requested to not reveal anything more at this stage unless can be disclosed in a respectful manner (request by the informant).
One possibility we haven't looked at is... a repeat of the Egyptair cockpit fire... It could disable the comms, displays, etc... while the aircraft may remain flying (as the avionics bay where the control computers are, are untouched).. with no time to call for mayday, it's straight to firefighting mode... if this is followed by a puncture a la the Egyptair... the crew and comms are history immediately. This does not explain the loss of transponders, unless more severe than I imagine... but going another 300NM is stretching it too! So am baffled myself whether this is even remotely possible.

Back to the FO... the stuff regarding his behaviour, can only a problem when in conjunction with other issues, so this is just a "ringing bell" and by no means anywhere in solving anything. Let's just say in MH, in particular the 777 fleet, the FOs can 'call some of the shots'... But explaining this at the moment serves no purpose. Am just saying it to allay arguments saying that "it's Asia, therefore (automatically and by default) the cockpit culture is steep in seniority"...

Quoting Pihero (Reply 21):
Why did ATC lose the flight's transponder ?
At IGARI, both K L and HCM were in radar coverage of the airway... yet both couldn't have a response from MH370's squawk.
There are not so many possibile occurrencies that answer these questions in a logical manner :
- One is a takeover from one of the flight deck crew members...
- Another is a fire in the electronic bay (s) of the airplane

The other thing is oxygen bottle fire in the electronics bay, but then, has that happened before?
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
mark2fly1034
Posts: 251
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:56 pm

When they might of crossed back over flying westbound were the caught on primary radar or the military radar. AFAIK Military radar does not give altitude. If it was the main primary radar that would make more scenes. I seem to be hearing both but not sure which one is true.
 
gobeyond
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:58 pm

Hi, Longtime lurker...

What if: Both GPS units were disables. (1/2 and 3). Plane was on autopilot at FL350. No emergency was perceived. The plane followed a wrong path and veered off course. By the time the crew noticed (I don't know why they would not pay attention) the 3rd one failed completely. They were going down with not visual clues no speed no FL. The plane could be anywhere. Would explain the absence of mayday of phone calls....
 
katekebo
Posts: 681
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:00 pm

Quoting Mark2fly1034 (Reply 74):

Moreover, from what I have read it was an HF OTH military radar. It has long range, but it uses signals that bounce of the ionosphere. It is inherently inaccurate.
 
windshear
Posts: 2268
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2000 4:45 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:02 pm

Quoting PhilV (Reply 45):
I came across this on a 777.

http://www.aaib.gov.uk/publications/...2_2007__boeing_777_222__n786ua.cfm

This event happening during cruise would be..... alt least not that good.

"After engines start, about the time the engine driven Integrated Drive Generators (IDGs) would normally come on-line"

This happened at ground idle engine thrust right after engine start on the ground...

Boaz.
"If you believe breaking is possible, believe in fixing also"-Rebbe Nachman
 
md80fanatic
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:05 pm

Perhaps what we all understand today to be science fiction has become science fact without the general public being told? It's 2014 and there is more going on in the military sciences than what any of us could possibly imagine. We only know a very small fraction of what is possible in reality today, that's a fact. As long as we use equipment and methods designed to sense what we currently know to be true, we can easily miss clues.

My gut tells me these airmen may have perceived their craft to be under some form of bizarre attack they could not put their heads around. First thing I would do in such a situation would be to immediately run silent. Cut all communications and transmissions of any kind, lights off, and make a descending turn away from my pre-planned flight path back towards home at flight idle if possible. I would be trying my best to NOT be found until a time when I could light everything back up and configure for landing.
 
mandala499
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:09 pm

Quoting gobeyond (Reply 75):
Both GPS units were disables. (1/2 and 3). Plane was on autopilot at FL350.

They would notice and the integrity monitor would show a degrading ANP... They could also fly on IRS only and not GPS in such a situation (fly in star wars/darth vader mode as it is mocked)... In fact, interestingly, this occured to my friend in MH going from PEK to KUL... now if that happened on 9M-MRO back then, I'm gonna freak out... 

(And Boeing to this day has no answer to the anomaly)
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
JimJupiter
Posts: 347
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:10 pm

Quoting md80fanatic (Reply 78):
We only know a very small fraction of what is possible in reality today, that's a fact.

How can we know it's a fact if we know that we don't know?   
One is born, one runs up bills, one dies.
 
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breiz
Posts: 1446
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:12 pm

Quoting thunderboltdrgn (Reply 70):
I don't know, but I don't think the weather satellites have the "zoom" needed for that.

You are most probably right.
Thanks for taking the time to find the links.
 
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Starlionblue
Posts: 19816
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:14 pm

Quoting gobeyond (Reply 75):

Hi, Longtime lurker...

What if: Both GPS units were disables. (1/2 and 3). Plane was on autopilot at FL350. No emergency was perceived. The plane followed a wrong path and veered off course. By the time the crew noticed (I don't know why they would not pay attention) the 3rd one failed completely. They were going down with not visual clues no speed no FL. The plane could be anywhere. Would explain the absence of mayday of phone calls....

You don't need GPS to get speed or altitude data. In fact the flight instruments only use GPS speed and wind speed really. The speed data comes from the pitot-static system.

I don't buy them going from cruise to impact. Too many alarms would go off, and once they got close to the ground, GPWS would warn once you approach the ground, plus radio calls, etc...

Quoting md80fanatic (Reply 78):

Perhaps what we all understand today to be science fiction has become science fact without the general public being told? It's 2014 and there is more going on in the military sciences than what any of us could possibly imagine. We only know a very small fraction of what is possible in reality today, that's a fact. As long as we use equipment and methods designed to sense what we currently know to be true, we can easily miss clues.

My gut tells me these airmen may have perceived their craft to be under some form of bizarre attack they could not put their heads around. First thing I would do in such a situation would be to immediately run silent. Cut all communications and transmissions of any kind, lights off, and make a descending turn away from my pre-planned flight path back towards home at flight idle if possible. I would be trying my best to NOT be found until a time when I could light everything back up and configure for landing.

A bizarre attack? Possible but seems extremely unlikely. Occam's Razor and all that.

Also I don't think your average airline pilot would react like that. It seems out of character. They're not action heroes in a Hollywood movie. At least the ones I've hung out with. Highly skilled professionals but pretty much all of them have been very chilled out people. Running some sort of military countermeasure maneuvers doesn't seem to be something they would do.

[Edited 2014-03-12 07:15:28]

[Edited 2014-03-12 07:18:46]

[Edited 2014-03-12 07:20:52]
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8182
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:15 pm

Quoting dtfg (Reply 68):
You know, the news is more than likely to serve for propaganda purposes. The Gov wants to convince the public that they are doing whatever they can to find the plane. Actually, AFAIK, many of the satellites they used are not "spy" satellites, rather, they are weather satellites and communication satellites just to provide weather information and support communications.

Glad you said that. China do have several imaging satellites and if they have high-res images from the area they can definitely use those. But terms like "deploying" or "redeploying" are definitely for public consumption. They may reconfigure equipment to get better images of ocean surface. No country wants to move their satellites even by a few degrees and loose several years of life for a single event.
All posts are just opinions.
 
hivue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:15 pm

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 52):
all the seemingly contradictory stuff has come from the press

I don't think so. See this from the Guardian:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/blo...nded-into-andaman-sea-live-updates
(posted above as well)
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
maxpower1954
Posts: 1067
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:21 pm

Quoting gobeyond (Reply 75):
What if: Both GPS units were disables. (1/2 and 3). Plane was on autopilot at FL350. No emergency was perceived. The plane followed a wrong path and veered off course. By the time the crew noticed (I don't know why they would not pay attention) the 3rd one failed completely. They were going down with not visual clues no speed no FL. The plane could be anywhere. Would explain the absence of mayday of phone calls....

The 777 or any modern aircraft doesn't need GPS to navigate. If the GPS was disabled, the Inertial Reference Systems (IRS) would continue to navigate with a very high degree of accuracy. My own company's 767-200ERs fly across the Atlantic everyday and they don't even have GPS installed.
 
branoco
Posts: 3
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:25 pm

Hello there,
I am not actually new on A.net, just wasn’t posting around, did read a lot of comments from this 16 threads about MH370 flight.
I have something what I want to share with you.
As I did know there are many theories what actually happened with the plane (some quiet strange, but anyway...)
There was many ppl asking, once the PIC or FO may hijack the plane, so why the people on board were not trying to „open/brake into“ the cockpit doors and take some actions, as also why don’t they send any message or call to their family/friend/police , what’s going on ?
As we still don’t know what’s happened to the plane (just that there are some indications).
What if the PIC/FO just did what happened on Helios 522 flight by mistake, so he somehow defused the other pilot, after takeoff, and then just don’t pressurized the cockpit ? (Yes another conspiracy theory)
I don’t know for how long the oxygen can be supplied from the passenger oxygen masks, so maybe I am wrong, but think the masks on PIC/FO seats can last longer and can be turn on/off individually (?).
So once during the climb everything for ground control looks good, the passengers on board were already „sleeping“ so well they will don’t take any action, whatever will happened with the plane.
I still pray that those all on board are somewhere in safe & OK, but this is something what I was looking to share with you.
I did saw almost all ACI series, so think the conclusion will be around someone theory over here (maybe now looks strange), but it will take some time, till will be discovered.

Brano
 
liquidair
Posts: 266
Joined: Fri May 27, 2011 2:01 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:27 pm

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 73):

thank you for your reply.

that makes a little bit more sense now with regards to the unlikely situation with regards to a 777 performing a covert flight and not being seen.

With regards to the Egyptair fire- I'm assuming that they made some modifications to the oxygen supply lines, no?

In any case- http://www.avherald.com/h?article=44078aa7&opt=0

some of the pictures and analysis make for sobering reading. But as you say (and starlionblue back in thread 9 or 10), this doesn't explain a lack of distress call unless the comms were burnt out and then a puncture would surely down the plane? 300nm is way too far with a fire.

what are the fire suppression systems available?

Still, very interesting about the FO. one thing i would say about him is that surely being the son of a bigwig in government would make them want to find them even more quickly... i really don't think anything at all is being covered up.
trying to stop my gaseous viscosity go liquid
 
User avatar
Pellegrine
Posts: 2430
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:28 pm

I didn't want to say this at first.

But these Malaysians are fools, absolute fools! They are sending out mixed signals and confusion and frustration.

Vietnam has scaled back their search, for good reason. Why should they waste money on SAR operations when the Malaysian Government has lied, obfuscated, and allowed expensive and risky searches to go on 500 miles in an opposite direction.

Quoting breiz (Reply 61):
- Can't weather satellites past pictures be used to try and see the plane when she was still flying?

Well, one reason would be that a reconnaissance satellite has a much higher resolution and targeting capacity than a weather satellite.
We fly JETS, we don't fly donkeys.
 
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Gonzalo
Posts: 1846
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 2:43 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:29 pm

Many people here with theories where this or that instrument fails "and the crew didn't notice", "they weren't paying attention"... modern jets are not equiped with the old couple of gauges with a scale and a pointer only. This is 777 not a Ford Trimotor... 777s have sophisticated glass cockpits with aural and visual alerts in the screens, for a a very vast number of malfunctions or instrument disagreement, and the image of the crew playing cards or reading a magazine while the aircraft does "unnoticed changes" is just non sense, sorry. The only scenario to something like that happening could be hipoxia, but that was discussed to death in the previous threads and was dismissed. IMHO one of three things happened : The crew was not able to react against a very rapid and catastrophic event / OR was victim of a criminal, terrorist action of a group storming the cockpit / OR one of the flight crew members has "the intention" of vanishing the aircraft. I can't imagine a normal, professional pilot and/or F/O ignoring all kinds of warnings, alarms and screens displaying instrument failures like some people are suggesting here.

Rgds.
G.
Gear Up!!: DC-3 / EMB-110 / FH-227 / A318-19-20-21 / B732 / B763 / B789 / B788 / A343 / ATR72-600
 
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Starlionblue
Posts: 19816
Joined: Fri Feb 27, 2004 9:54 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:34 pm

Quoting branoco (Reply 86):
What if the PIC/FO just did what happened on Helios 522 flight by mistake, so he somehow defused the other pilot, after takeoff, and then just don’t pressurized the cockpit ? (Yes another conspiracy theory)

Pressurization is the same in the entire pressure vessel. You can't separate the cockpit. Anyway there'd be alarms if the cabin altitude climbed to dangerous levels.

Quoting branoco (Reply 86):
I don’t know for how long the oxygen can be supplied from the passenger oxygen masks, so maybe I am wrong, but think the masks on PIC/FO seats can last longer and can be turn on/off individually (?).

I think it's 15 minutes for pax masks. Cockpit supply is independent and lasts longer. Masks are also different. Quick don and can work in various modes depending on altitude.

Quoting branoco (Reply 86):
So once during the climb everything for ground control looks good, the passengers on board were already „sleeping“ so well they will don’t take any action, whatever will happened with the plane

Alarms would go off in the cockpit, but very much in theory you could don masks in the cockpit and not pressurize so the pax and cabin crew would lose consciousness.

I will add that this sounds like a bad action movie.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
anatolialevant
Posts: 11
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:34 pm

Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 89):
Many people here with theories where this or that instrument fails "and the crew didn't notice", "they weren't paying attention"... modern jets are not equiped with the old couple of gauges with a scale and a pointer only. This is 777 not a Ford Trimotor... 777s have sophisticated glass cockpits with aural and visual alerts in the screens, for a a very vast number of malfunctions or instrument disagreement, and the image of the crew playing cards or reading a magazine while the aircraft does "unnoticed changes" is just non sense, sorry. The only scenario to something like that happening could be hipoxia, but that was discussed to death in the previous threads and was dismissed. IMHO one of three things happened : The crew was not able to react against a very rapid and catastrophic event / OR was victim of a criminal, terrorist action of a group storming the cockpit / OR one of the flight crew members has "the intention" of vanishing the aircraft. I can't imagine a normal, professional pilot and/or F/O ignoring all kinds of warnings, alarms and screens displaying instrument failures like some people are suggesting here.

Rgds.
G.

How about actually over occupied with those warning, alarms, and screens? Or focusing too much on few warnings or alarms? (something like AF 447 or TS 236) I put that as my speculation on reply #64
 
pygmalion
Posts: 836
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:36 pm

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 72):
2) terrorists take over
- only seems plausible if they have found a new method to penetrate the cockpit without giving any warning whatsoever to the cockpit crew
- they know enough to flip off all the necessary circuit breakers
- they want to keep that method hidden to apply it again, maybe on a larger scale and in simultaneity
- they now drop altitude and fly away from land to prevent any passenger from placing a cell call
- they fly away silently looking for a greater depth to ditch the airplane

the cockpit doors will take large caliber pistol rounds without breaching and an axe would still take you a fair number of minutes to breach the door. Not to mention that the surveillance camera is watching and streaming that video to the cockpit. While that is going on.. You really think the pilots wouldn't be making a distress call?? by the way, the circuit breakers for all this are in the cockpit and not accessible to the cabin

The rest of your theories are equally unlikely.
 
captainx
Posts: 126
Joined: Fri Jun 29, 2007 8:06 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:37 pm

Does anyone know if the 777 cockpit oxygen masks have microphone/earphones built-in, and would ATC be able to determine that you are indeed wearing one when you speak? That would help eliminate some of the sinister scenarios. The handoff to Vietnam ATC at this point appeared "normal."
 
JimJupiter
Posts: 347
Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2011 4:28 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:38 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 84):

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 52):
all the seemingly contradictory stuff has come from the press

I don't think so. See this from the Guardian:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/blo...nded-into-andaman-sea-live-updates
(posted above as well)

Well, they're also guessing but won't make it sound like that on their press conferences. By now they have told us that there was some radar data (albeit slower than a usual airliner, and with a fuzzy and unclear signal) crossing the peninsula, before disappearing from radar at 02:40 near Pulau Perak. That's why they started to search in the West from early on. Now they spent some time reassessing all the radar information, which does apparently not allow them to say that this was certainly the 777, and found some other radar signal of unknown provenience, further North, at 02:15. That's why they widened the search area northwards. Seems consistent to me.

"... adds to confusion" is just the Guardians take on it.

Quote:
The Malaysian authorities leading the investigation into the missing plane have added to the confusion about its last known whereabouts. At a hostile press conference military officials said the last possible recording of flight MH370 was at 2.15am on Saturday morning 200 miles north west of Penang. The authorities had initially said air traffic control lost contact at 1.20am on the east side of the peninsula. On Tuesday the head of the armed forces was reported as saying it was picked up by military radar at 2.40am - a statement he has since denied making.

He denied a press report which had him confirming that this was the flight (at 02:40, that is). Lazy Guardian relies on a (translated?) news report that went through the internet, but does not want to take note of the official statement clarifying his alleged "quote".

It is depressing....
One is born, one runs up bills, one dies.
 
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Gonzalo
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:39 pm

Quoting anatolialevant (Reply 91):
How about actually over occupied with those warning, alarms, and screens? Or focusing too much on few warnings or alarms? (something like AF 447 or TS 236) I put that as my speculation on reply #64

The problem with that scenario is ( as AF447 demonstrated ), we should have a good number of ACARS messages telling at least a good part of the failures and alerts.... we don't have anything.

Rgds.
G.-
Gear Up!!: DC-3 / EMB-110 / FH-227 / A318-19-20-21 / B732 / B763 / B789 / B788 / A343 / ATR72-600
 
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BaconButty
Posts: 820
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:40 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 84):

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 52):
all the seemingly contradictory stuff has come from the press

I don't think so. See this from the Guardian:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/blo...nded-into-andaman-sea-live-updates
(posted above as well)

The Guardian report confirms what I said:

Quote:

The Malaysian authorities leading the investigation into the missing plane have added to the confusion about its last known whereabouts. At a hostile press conference military officials said the last possible recording of flight MH370 was at 2.15am on Saturday morning 200 miles north west of Penang. The authorities had initially said air traffic control lost contact at 1.20am on the east side of the peninsula. On Tuesday the head of the armed forces was reported as saying it was picked up by military radar at 2.40am - a statement he has since denied making.



Edit - JimJupiter beat me to it with a better explanation


[Edited 2014-03-12 07:44:12]
Down with that sort of thing!
 
rebr
Posts: 180
Joined: Sat Aug 31, 2013 6:26 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:41 pm

In the very unlikely event the aircraft has somehow managed to land somewhere, how long would it theoretically be possible to survive? I suppose they have water/food on board that only lasts for a very limited amount of time.
 
klmtom
Posts: 7
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2014 7:12 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:42 pm

Has anyone questioned the amount of hours that the Captain and Co-pilot had done prior to the flight?

Maybe fatigue to the pilots played a major role in events and proceedings?

cheers
 
billreid
Posts: 761
Joined: Fri Jun 23, 2006 10:04 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:42 pm

I think the scariest scenario is they just find nil after months of looking. At some point between now and the end of March further searching could become cost prohibitive and begin to decrease. With the third world how long can you afford to spend millions and millions looking?

At that point the industry could upgrade Ident for over water aircraft to ensure 24/7/365 inflight tracking.
But that could take years to implement across the globe.
Some people don't get it. Business is about making MONEY!
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