MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16

SA7700 · Wed Mar 12, 2014 11:23 am

Due to length part 15 was locked for further contributions. Please feel free to continue your discussion in part 16.

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B777-200ER missing enroute KUL-PEK (by Longhornmaniac Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 2 (by LipeGIG Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 3 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 4 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 5 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 6 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 7 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines 772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 8 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 9 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 10 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 12 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 13 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 14 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 15 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

A select few members have been making remarks towards others in the “Missing Malaysia Airlines 777 threads” for speculating about the fate of 9M-MRO, her crew and passengers. Given the fact that there is so much uncertainty going on at this stage, speculation is going to be a factor on this site and also at the biggest and greatest news corporations of the globe. At least until we all have a clearer picture. Is it a perfect situation – certainly not? That being said, we need to stay dynamic in a possible fast-changing situation.

It is not unique to this incident and if we go back in history and trace remarkable aviation events we will see that speculation has been an aspect, essential to some healthy debate. It is not the intention of the moderators to stifle the opinions of members that fall within the rules-and regulations of airliners.net. All that we kindly request from all our members is to stay within the site’s parameters. Please be respectful towards one another and let us all hope for the best possible outcome.

PLEASE KEEP IN MIND:

**** Out of respect to the crew, passengers and also family members; close to those onboard MH370; could we please keep science fiction theories and content related to possible future movie rights out of these threads? ****

**** Please do not repeat questions and scenarios that were covered and discussed in previous threads and which do not contribute in a constructive manner towards the real topic any longer. ****

**** Please make an effort to read through some of the threads, if possible the latest in the series, before adding your own comments and theories to the current, active thread on this issue. ****

**** Once again please be respectful towards other users and keep the forum rules and regulations in mind when posting in the forums. Should there be any rule violations, please bring this to the attention of the moderators by making use of the “suggest deletion function”. ****

Enjoy the forums!

Regards and thanks for your co-operation,

SA7700

theaviator380 · Wed Mar 12, 2014 11:32 am

Thanks to Mods for doing wonderful job here...Cheers.

madmouse · Wed Mar 12, 2014 11:32 am

Saw this in Facebook about the Malaysia Airlines .

If allready posted feel free to delete It

https://www.facebook.com/#!/photo.php?fbid=498377323600299&set=p.498377323600299&type=1&theater

giopan1975 · Wed Mar 12, 2014 11:34 am

Quoting Pihero (Reply 243):
"The obvious reason why the airplane hasn't been found - yet - is a track change. How drastic and how far is the biggest question we could ask."

The farthest they drifted off course without mayday, the less possible the initial event was devastating (as in explosion). But they couldnt have gone so far (more than 5+ minutes into emergency) without notifying of an emergency. Then again no sign of debris close to point where communication was lost.

The more days without debris findings, the less possible the initial event was devastating.

Either people looking for the plane are useless or blind, or the plane was taken over by passengers or crew for some mysterious reason.

Dalavia · Wed Mar 12, 2014 11:39 am

Quoting madmouse (Reply 2):

Saw this in Facebook about the Malaysia Airlines .

If allready posted feel free to delete It

https://www.facebook.com/#!/photo.php?fbid=498377323600299&set=p.498377323600299&type=1&theater

I did see this posted earlier, but I feel it is worth re-emphasising. It strikes me as the most credible report about this disappearance from any source.

I understand that the location described meshes with the reported sightings of a possible debris field by Cathay pilots, who should also be considered as reliable witnesses in this matter.

Let's hope that it will be followed through if it has not already.

gulfstream650 · Wed Mar 12, 2014 11:39 am

Quoting madmouse (Reply 2):

So what's the deal with this email? Has it been validated by the authorities?

Has anyone plugged those GPS co-ords into Google earth ? Where does it take us?

SKAirbus · Wed Mar 12, 2014 11:39 am

Based purely on the eye-witness report from the oil rig, if the aircraft was a ball of fire, it indicates a pretty catastrophic event that kept the airframe relatively in tact. It would explain why it disappeared from the primary radar as communication systems got knocked out.

They really need to send a lot of SAR resource to that area.... There aren't many leads, so when you get something like this they should be jumping on it. Do you think they have flown out to the rig and interviewed the guy?

ltbewr · Wed Mar 12, 2014 11:40 am

This post was about the last in the previous thread, so let me repeat it here with an addition:

Who controls the ATC in Malaysia - the military or a civilian government agency ?

If the military, then it is no wonder their spokespersons are so defensive and acting confused, the top leaders are likely no matter what of losing their jobs or forced into retirement, in a place where being in the military means financial security and allows to have great power. If the Government, it may mean a turn in party control, so many current leaders lose their jobs and lose the financial security and power they provide. This event may bring out huge revelations of corruption and incompetence of both the military and government triggering major changes in key appointed and elected positions.

There is also the ugly possibility of a terror act by some group or nut individual even someone in the cockpit that went rogue.

We need a international well coordinated search to be done, one that has to bring together countries to ignore their issues among them, for example China and the USA, who have important interests (China with their citizens the majority of the pax on board, the flight going to their country, the USA as the a/c was made in the USA). In the end it will take a coordinated effort to search, verify possible evidence and to hopefully find the answers we need to prevent another disaster like this.

SeJoWa · Wed Mar 12, 2014 11:48 am

Quoting madmouse (Reply 2):

https://www.facebook.com/#!/photo.php?fbid=498377323600299&set=p.498377323600299&type=1&theater

08 22 30.23 N 108 42 22.26 E

https://www.google.com/maps/place/8%C2%B022'30.2%22N+108%C2%B042'22.3%22E/@8.6276892,112.4058292,6z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x0:0x0

http://goo.gl/5vLF5S

[Edited 2014-03-12 04:49:13]

art · Wed Mar 12, 2014 11:51 am

Copied from part 15

Quoting aw70 (Reply 249):
If you can potentially fly something the size of a T7 across the entire bloody country, and four days later they are still not sure whether that actually happened - in plain language that means your entire military airspace surveillance is worth precisely nothing.

I have been wondering how a large aircraft on an unexpected flight path towards Malaysia could not have set off alarm bells for the MAF. It seems to me quite possible that the lack of a response to an unidentified aircraft heading towards or reaching then overflying Malaysia has caused those who fell down on the job to suppress all information associated with this failing - in other words, that the MAF decided to keep quiet about this embarrassing lapse. It would be very diificult to own up now, wouldn't it?

I'm not saying that this is what happened, only that if if did, it could have led to the search being conducted in the wrong areas.

[Edited 2014-03-12 05:03:50]

PhilV · Wed Mar 12, 2014 11:53 am

Quoting madmouse (Reply 2):
Saw this in Facebook about the Malaysia Airlines .

[quote=SeJoWa,reply=8]08 22 30.23 N 108 42 22.26 E

We could repeat everything form the last thread15. So we will come to part 20 soon.

Please... Come on.

zeke · Wed Mar 12, 2014 11:55 am

Quoting SeJoWa (Reply 8):
08 22 30.23 N 108 42 22.26 E

Using spherical trig, I worked out 8:22.4693N 108:4.0868E using the 270 bearing and 70 km from the position on a WGS84 spheroid.

theaviator380 · Wed Mar 12, 2014 11:57 am

Quoting PhilV (Reply 10):

Unlike you not everyone taking part in this discussion since initial thread hence some repeat information being traded.

By the way looking at map, does look realistic area for SAR.

[Edited 2014-03-12 04:58:53]

[Edited 2014-03-12 05:00:50]

nupogodi · Wed Mar 12, 2014 11:58 am

Quoting aw70 from previous thread: "If you can potentially fly something the size of a T7 across the entire bloody country, and four days later they are still not sure whether that actually happened - in plain language that means your entire military airspace surveillance is worth precisely nothing. Total garbage."

Amen, my man, amen. I'm so surprised at some people here saying we shouldn't judge the Malaysian authorities because we don't have better solutions ourselves? We don't have the data! They do -- or, SHOULD.

Vietnam pulling out most of their SAR resources and basically saying, "We can't get a line out to these guys, we don't even know what they know" while Vietnam has been extremely forthcoming about every single potential lead they had tells a lot.

The sooner the NTSB starts looking into those radar logs the better. Didn't the US have a warship in the region? There are also classified space-based assets at play, what did they track? The triple-seven reflects radar nicely, but who knows if there were radar sats watching the area (and we will likely never know).

liquidair · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:04 pm

I want to know why Mandala doesn't buy them flying back over Malaysia.

with regards to the eyewitness report from the oil rig, I'd be amazed if you could spot a fire going out at 70km away. Even if the fire going out was point of impact, Jet A is volatile enough to keep burning. And there would be massive amounts of smoke, debris and other flights would have seen this in such clear skies.

Pihero, you talk about the redundancy of the electrical circuits... Are you hinting you think one of the pilots wanted a little joy ride and screwed up? Hence switching the transponder?

would certainly fit in with Mandala's main preoccupation with the FO... If something went wrong, they could have gone miles off course... To an area where there is less radar coverage.... Borneo maybe? Speculation again.... I fear you're right. We know nothing.

ChinaClipper40 · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:04 pm

After following this event on major media outlets (BBC, CBC, CNN) since its inception, and reading hundreds upon hundreds of posts in this forum, I am forced to one of the following conclusions:

1) The Malaysian authorities are deliberately hiding something very bad; something that would be horridly shocking to the rest of the world; or
2) The Malaysian authorities are kindergarten-level inept.

I personally lean toward the latter.

Gonzalo · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:04 pm

I saw part of the last press conference from authorities.... it is really heartbreaking to see that essentially they don't have a clue about the whereabouts of the aircraft and the souls on board....this event is really amazing.

Let's hope the weather remains good enough in the área to keep the search teams working.... although I have the feeling that if we cross some timelines, part of the countries that are currently helping with resources will abandon the efforts making the things even worst....

Rgds.
G.

NAV20 · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:07 pm

Quoting art (Reply 9):
I'm not saying that this is what happened, only that if if did, it could have led to the search being conducted in the wrong areas.

Agree, art. Came across this this afternoon. Given that the aircraft's intended course was north-east, towards mainland China, I can't for the life of me work out why the authorities would divert any resources at all to searching an area to the west-north-west, over the Malacca Strait?

Unless, of course, they suspect some sort of hijack?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-1...lane-malaysia-airlines-map/5314858

PA515 · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:07 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 11):
Using spherical trig, I worked out 8:22.4693N 108:4.0868E using the 270 bearing and 70 km from the position on a WGS84 spheroid.

Only problem is the CX pilot sighted debris at 9.72N 107.42E, according to avherald, and the current and wind in the email are in the opposite direction towards the south.

PA515

piedfly · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:08 pm

I thought the media questions in that press conference were generally quite poor; they were either too easy to be dismissed, or were poorly phrased so that the panel could proceed by repeating some information.

Given the 'inexperienced' nature of the panel facing questions, some well thought out and constructed questions could've gleaned extra info. Of course, perhaps the right reporters were not indicated to ask as they already have reputations for pertinent questions.

Pihero · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:12 pm

I guess I need to make myself clear : I am not against speculations, however far-fetched they could be. I am just apalled by the lack of knowledge from aviation people.
And more than anything, I am against disparaging any country just because it doesn't belong to the western hemisphere.

With the pitiful amount of facts at our disposal, there is THE big question :

Why didn't the crew manage to contact one ATC about a seriouis problem ? ... and a corollary :

Why did ATC lose the flight's transponder ?
At IGARI, both K L and HCM were in radar coverage of the airway... yet both couldn't have a response from MH370's squawk.
There are not so many possibile occurrencies that answer these questions in a logical manner :
- One is a takeover from one of the flight deck crew members...
- Another is a fire in the electronic bay (s) of the airplane
... ... ... ... ... ...
As someone who studied aircraft systems, IFE in particular is one of the most vulnerable systems in an airliner...
BUt I'm speculating as much as most of us here...

nupogodi · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:13 pm

Does anyone have a link to a recording of the presser? I woke up right as it was winding down.

aw70 · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:16 pm

Quoting art (Reply 9):
I have been wondering how a large aircraft on an unexpected flight path towards Malaysia could not have set off alarm bells for the MAF.

Exactly this. And "setting off the alarm bells" would not necessarily mean that interceptors are sent up to investigate. In peacetime, few countries maintain fighters on 24/7 QRA. No idea whether the MAF has any planes on QRA at night, but given that the entire area is reasonably peaceful, and given that their resources are not overwhelmingly large, I would assume they do not.

However, military airspace surveillance should never sleep. Ever. And they have to know what is going on in their airspace. At all times. No excuses. If such surveillance is done competently, one of the most obvious things to set off all alarm bells within reach would be a significant radar contact that does not correlate with any ATC data. And few things would generate a stronger radar return than a T7, even with all transponders and such firmly off.

art · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:20 pm

Officials investigating the disappearance of a Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-200ER are tight-lipped about Aircraft Communications and Reporting System (ACARS) data reported by the aircraft.

Malaysia’s Department of Civil Aviation is examining ACARS data from the missing aircraft, but senior DCA officials declined to comment on their findings, if any. They also declined to say when ACARS data from flight MH370 will be released – or even if it will be.

In response to a question posed by Flightglobal about the aircraft’s ACARS data, one of the officials cited the “sensitivity of the investigations.”

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...-mh370-acars-transmissions-396857/

I get the impression that (a) things are being done too slowly (b) the authority does not welcome its work being scrutinised

polnebmit · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:20 pm

I have to ask this question again or rephrase it since it doesn't seem that it was answered. Is there any information as to why it seems that 9M-MRO was grounded in KUL for an extended period of time after it came from HKG? According to FR24, 9M-MRO flew in from PEK hours earlier as MH371 before turning around as incident flight MH370, but interestingly flight MH370 to PEK using 9M-MRO had been cancelled the day before which makes it impossible to have it come in from PEK if it never got there in first place. If the cancelation is true, this means that 9M-MRO sat in KUL for an entire day between the incoming flight from HKG and before the incident flight since it never went to PEK the day before. Again, if this is true, what was the reason? Why was flight MH370 grounded the day before the incident flight? Mechanincal issues?

[Edited 2014-03-12 05:22:24]

Starlionblue · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:25 pm

Quoting liquidair (Reply 14):
with regards to the eyewitness report from the oil rig, I'd be amazed if you could spot a fire going out at 70km away. Even if the fire going out was point of impact, Jet A is volatile enough to keep burning. And there would be massive amounts of smoke, debris and other flights would have seen this in such clear skies.

I dunno. At night over the ocean, you can see aircraft lights a long way. A fire would be more visible.

Quoting ChinaClipper40 (Reply 15):
After following this event on major media outlets (BBC, CBC, CNN) since its inception, and reading hundreds upon hundreds of posts in this forum, I am forced to one of the following conclusions:

1) The Malaysian authorities are deliberately hiding something very bad; something that would be horridly shocking to the rest of the world; or
2) The Malaysian authorities are kindergarten-level inept.

I personally lean toward the latter.

Possibility 3) They aren't really that bad at SAR ops per se but they aren't experienced in handling the international press or coordinating SAR ops with eight other countries, several of which they have territorial disputes with in this very area. The latter challenge isn't trivial.

Quoting art (Reply 24):

Officials investigating the disappearance of a Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-200ER are tight-lipped about Aircraft Communications and Reporting System (ACARS) data reported by the aircraft.

Malaysia’s Department of Civil Aviation is examining ACARS data from the missing aircraft, but senior DCA officials declined to comment on their findings, if any. They also declined to say when ACARS data from flight MH370 will be released – or even if it will be.

In response to a question posed by Flightglobal about the aircraft’s ACARS data, one of the officials cited the “sensitivity of the investigations.”

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...-mh370-acars-transmissions-396857/

I get the impression that (a) things are being done too slowly (b) the authority does not welcome its work being scrutinised

Possibility c) They don't want to talk about it until they have something definite to talk about, and/or they don't to taint the rest of the investigation. Discretion can be a good thing in these situations.

[Edited 2014-03-12 05:26:46]

[Edited 2014-03-12 05:27:05]

[Edited 2014-03-12 05:29:35]

[Edited 2014-03-12 05:31:18]

Trin · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:27 pm

Quoting ChinaClipper40 (Reply 15):

After following this event on major media outlets (BBC, CBC, CNN) since its inception, and reading hundreds upon hundreds of posts in this forum, I am forced to one of the following conclusions:

1) The Malaysian authorities are deliberately hiding something very bad; something that would be horridly shocking to the rest of the world; or
2) The Malaysian authorities are kindergarten-level inept.

I personally lean toward the latter.

I agree with you totally - and there is a third possibility:

3) Malaysian authorities have NOTHING to go on, can't figure out why, and are embarrassed by that fact.

Which would lead me to conclude what I have been feeling in my gut all along.....that the oil rig worker's email may be the only thing worthwhile looking into, and we need to start turning our eyes towards the South China Sea.

dtw2hyd · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:30 pm

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 13):
If you can potentially fly something the size of a T7 across the entire bloody country, and four days later they are still not sure whether that actually happened - in plain language that means your entire military airspace surveillance is worth precisely nothing. Total garbage.

Same is true for 150+ other countries on earth. Most countries don't have a need to build up their air defenses. Malaysia is a tiny peaceful country lives on commerce and tourism.

No one is stopping China from mobilizing their vast resources.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 13):
Didn't the US have a warship in the region? There are also classified space-based assets at play, what did they track? The triple-seven reflects radar nicely, but who knows if there were radar sats watching the area (and we will likely never know).

This happened in worlds most active surveillance and reconnaissance area. US is spying on China and India, China and India are spying on each other. Entire South China sea is monitored by US. 750NM of Andaman and Nicobar area is under heavy surveillance by India.

Everyone is very quiet because nobody want to reveal their capabilities.

This happened at night. Only US, Russia, Germany, Israel and India have satellites with night time radar imaging capability. Were they covering the area when it happened. No one knows. If it is sitting in deep waters of Bay of Bengal its not going to picked up by satellite imagery.

So don't except any country with capability to come out publicly, they may slip hints to Malaysia.

giopan1975 · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:30 pm

Maybe it has been already been answered but

Why arent they searching over mainland Malaysia?

Maybe some villager in some remote jungle area saw something but he has no phone or internet to communicate.

Tobias2702 · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:33 pm

Quoting polnebmit (Reply 27):
I have to ask this question again or rephrase it since it doesn't seem that it was answered. Is there any information as to why it seems that 9M-MRO was grounded in KUL for an extended period of time after it came from HKG? According to FR24, 9M-MRO flew in from PEK hours earlier as MH371 before turning around as incident flight MH370, but interestingly flight MH370 to PEK using 9M-MRO had been cancelled the day before which makes it impossible to have it come in from PEK if it never got there in first place. If the cancelation is true, this means that 9M-MRO sat in KUL for an entire day before the incident flight since it never went to PEK the day before. Again, if this is true, what was the reason? Why was flight MH370 grounded the day before the incident flight? Mechanincal issues?

Strange this doesn't seem to have been discussed here before (at least I can't remember). But according to flightstats.com, on Friday, 7 March, flight MH 370 was on time, only the return MH 371 was cancelled. This would mean a Malaysian 777-200 having been stranded at PEK?!

theaviator380 · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:34 pm

Quoting polnebmit (Reply 25):

If I am not wrong, MAS CEO said they don't yet...When plane crashes first thing I would assume they would do is to check maintenance record and history of that bird. Don't know he was ignorant or he honestly don't know about maintenance or he doesn't want to give any answer.

us330 · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:34 pm

This is more of a technical set of questions than anything else, directed towards those with experience with radar and knowing how these systems work. I have absolutely no technical background in the field, so please correct any assumptions my questions may presume (out of benign ignorance).

The aircraft's transponder was turned off and the flight deck was not communicating. From what I understand (like I said, please correct me if I am wrong), when a transponder is turned off, radar systems are only capable of detecting an unidentified/anonymous blip on the screen. Since the blip is anonymous, then how can the Royal Malaysian Air Force be certain that the blip they detected near Pulau Perak was in fact MH370? Are there other ways off identifying/verifying blips (other than visually intercepting them) based on the information that was available to the RMAF or other radar stations in the area?

Based on the aircraft's presumed flight path, the aircraft flew relatively near three relatively busy airports with frequent commercial service (Khota Bharu on the eastern coast and between Langkawi and Penang on the western coast). Do these airports have radar systems that could have detected MH370, and were there air traffic controllers on duty at each of those airports?

Thunderboltdrgn · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:38 pm

Quoting giopan1975 (Reply 29):
Maybe it has been already been answered but

Why arent they searching over mainland Malaysia?

Maybe some villager in some remote jungle area saw something but
he has no phone or internet to communicate.

I think perhaps with the amount of air traffic going across the peninsula a wreckage would
have been spotted already?

JHwk · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:39 pm

Quoting art (Reply 24):
Officials investigating the disappearance of a Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-200ER are tight-lipped about Aircraft Communications and Reporting System (ACARS) data reported by the aircraft.

From the sound of previous reports, they only get engine data on 30-minute intervals. There was one report at takeoff, and a second report at climb to cruise. There was no third report from what has been stated, so the engine was either not running, its ACARS was disabled, or it was somehow unable to transmit.

Starting to get the feeling that the simplest explanation is the most likely. Unfortunately that doesn't help figure out where the plane crashed. 20 minutes flying time from the point of last contact gives a pretty large radius.

COEWR787 · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:41 pm

Does ARINC have access to the ACARS data in addition to the airline in question? This is not a rhetorical question. I don;t know the details of how ACARS communication is handled and what role is played by ARINC in day to day operation of the aircraft to ground data link, and would genuinely like to know, specifically in this context of the availability of the ACARS messages to analyze.

rj777 · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:43 pm

I have a feeling that if the plane isn't found soon, the families might get so fed up with Malaysian that they'll sue them for the info that we all suspect that they're hiding. I would in their situation. I mean, we're going on almost a week since the crash and not even so much as a safety card from the plane has been found!

mpsrent · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:43 pm

Realizing that its easy to be a keyboard critic, I admit that I don't have the expertise to judge the credibility of the Malaysian authorities.

I do have expertise as to the value of credible and factual communications. I believe that the Malaysians would increase their credibility if they clearly communicated through one source what exactly they do know to be factual, even if it only amounts to minimal information. The flood of confusing and conflicting information is damaging their reputation. If the real issue is that the Malaysian authorities are more concerned about revealing to the world that their civil defenses may not be working, it seems that the world has already figured that problem out.

In the absence of factual information, the media and public will draw their own conclusions.

SEPilot · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:47 pm

Quoting Trin (Reply 27):

3) Malaysian authorities have NOTHING to go on, can't figure out why, and are embarrassed by that fact.

My impression is that this is the most likely. While I have yet to see any government agency in any country not have its share (or more than its share) of incompetence, I also believe (and have observed for the most part) that only governments led by tinpot dictators (which I do not consider Malaysia to be) to be completely incompetent. And a situation like this where there is absolutely no credible evidence of what happened and is so unexpected it is so easy to look incompetent when you are really just at a complete loss.

Gonzalo · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:49 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 21):

- One is a takeover from one of the flight deck crew members...
- Another is a fire in the electronic bay (s) of the airplane

The fire in the electronic bay should be the less probable of the two IMHO. This 777 was manufactured some years after the Swiss 111 crash, and the chance of such a catastrophic and rapidly spreading fire should be very small, don't you think? ( Of course I'm making the assumption of Boeing following the TSB recommendations after Swiss 111 regarding the use of MPET in the electronic bay and IFE wiring ).

Rgds.
G.

David L · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:51 pm

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 17):
I can't for the life of me work out why the authorities would divert any resources at all to searching an area to the west-north-west, over the Malacca Strait?

Then you have a lot of catching up to do.

Quoting us330 (Reply 32):
how can the Royal Malaysian Air Force be certain that the blip they detected near Pulau Perak was in fact MH370?

They haven't said they're certain of anything like that.

YokoTsuno · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:53 pm

Quoting p201055r From Ireland (Reply 250):
…. consider the background of the individuals we’re seeing on our screens.

Figures of authority in a power-centric State (I mean no disrespect to Malaysia or its citizens), unused to being questioned time and again by international media. They say it, they say it once, it’s the truth - that’s their culture.

Their exposure to media will most likely have been non-confrontational in the past, their interviews with the press well managed by their media handlers and on a you-don’t-embarrass-me and I-won’t-hurt-you understanding. This is probably true for the DGA, maybe the Minister and even the CEO of MH.

Suddenly, however, they find themselves in the stressful if not confrontational arena of international media, being beamed into homes all around the World.

Not an easy place to be with skilled reporters trying to pick holes in your story, to get the “angle”, to solve the mystery. Not an easy place to be either if your service - Army, Navy or Air Force - hasn’t been as efficient as it should have been or if the hideously expensive equipment which was bought didn’t live up to its expectations.
Add in fears over disclosing too much about defence structures, responses, states of readiness and it is surprising these people dare to open their mouths.

I felt the Chief of Defence Staff today was attempting to be realistic and human in explaining why the Straits search was ordered and was continuing; the AF Chief attempting to be forthcoming about the last suspected primary radar contact.

OK the MH CEO should have had the AD compliance facts.

After working myself through two dozen, rather uneducated posts, on the Malaysian press conference, finally somebody with a correct understanding of what is happening here. It probably doesn't mean much to you, but from now your RR does no longer show a zero. Cheers

nupogodi · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:53 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 21):
And more than anything, I am against disparaging any country just because it doesn't belong to the western hemisphere.

Agh, friend, it is not about disparaging the country or its people, just its government and their handling of the case. I think I speak for everyone when I say nobody here thinks bad thoughts about Malaysian people in general.

art · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:56 pm

Quoting JHwk (Reply 34):
Quoting art (Reply 24):Officials investigating the disappearance of a Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-200ER are tight-lipped about Aircraft Communications and Reporting System (ACARS) data reported by the aircraft.
From the sound of previous reports, they only get engine data on 30-minute intervals. There was one report at takeoff, and a second report at climb to cruise. There was no third report from what has been stated

The idea of a press conference is to pass information to the press, so why do they not say how many packets of data were sent by the ACARS system and when? The recipient of any received data is bound to know.

cptkrell · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:56 pm

CBS This Morning TV news show will be interviewing CPT Sully Sullinberger shortly.

They have announced that he will be discussing missing 777. If USAers are interested, this segment has not been presented yet at this time of my posting.

PhilV · Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:59 pm

Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 39):

I came across this on a 777.

http://www.aaib.gov.uk/publications/...2_2007__boeing_777_222__n786ua.cfm

This event happening during cruise would be..... alt least not that good.

Regards.

81819 · Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:03 pm

Quoting Dalavia (Reply 4):
Let's hope that it will be followed through if it has not already.

I have done a quick overlay of the current search areas against the co-ordinates in the email and this area is currently not being searched?

Who controls these waters? I know Vietnam has been in dispute with China for many years about the rights of the gas and oil reserves in this region. It might be the case diplomacy is a bigger factor in this than we imagine!

NAV20 · Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:04 pm

Quoting David L (Reply 40):
Quoting Nav20 (Reply 17): I can't for the life of me work out why the authorities would divert any resources at all to searching an area to the west-north-west, over the Malacca Strait?
Then you have a lot of catching up to do.

Meaning what, David-L? That I'm wrong, or that the Indonesian aviation authorities are way short of being 100% competent in many areas?

Bongodog1964 · Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:04 pm

Quoting aw70 (Reply 23):

Quoting art (Reply 9):
I have been wondering how a large aircraft on an unexpected flight path towards Malaysia could not have set off alarm bells for the MAF.

Exactly this. And "setting off the alarm bells" would not necessarily mean that interceptors are sent up to investigate. In peacetime, few countries maintain fighters on 24/7 QRA. No idea whether the MAF has any planes on QRA at night, but given that the entire area is reasonably peaceful, and given that their resources are not overwhelmingly large, I would assume they do not.

The Malaysian Airforce has at best 36 interceptor aircraft, its likely that on any one day day they would be able to deploy less than half of them. Meanwhile they have 1200 miles of coastline and few if any valid threats, this may well explain why a mystery trace on the radar wouldn't be investigated. Likewise the radar coverage may well not be too hot either.

I think we can all be deluded into the capabilities of military radars, aircraft etc. I know I was. Recently I read a book written by an ex RAF Phantom navigator, it was quite a shock to see just how short the range was on the radar and weapons systems of the 1970's/80's and this was the UK actively maintaining a 24/7 alert over the Iceland - Norway Gap. I doubt that the capability in parts of the World is any better now than what I was reading about here in the UK 30 years ago, and why would it be ? Military hardware costs always seem to rise faster than an ability to pay for them.

There's been much criticism here of the Malaysian Authorities, on the lines that they "don't have clue" in one way thats correct they don't have any definite information on where this plane has ended up, what has been obvious for some time is that its not where it credibly could be. Additionally the last radio report was its handover to Vietnam, logically it follows that its Vietnam who lost it, not Malaysia. I've followed aviation for more than 35 years, I can't ever recollect anything like this before, we seem to have headed back to the era when planes would take off, not arrive at their destination and some wreckage would be found years later in a desert or a glacier.

Thunderboltdrgn · Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:05 pm

Quoting PhilV (Reply 45):

This event happening during cruise would be..... alt least not that good.

Well I would think that they still would have been able to send out a mayday or
change the Squawk code or something like that,.

TheRedBaron · Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:06 pm

We live in a world where technology is king and everyone believes to be being watched 24/7, in some way its still great that we as a human race still cannot control everything and know everything and/or have access to anything in 5 minutes.

This tragedy makes it clear that there are some things that still can baffle us and escape our control. the 16 threads about this flight and the speed of the speculation makes it clear we are expecting closure in some way, to feel that we have control, we are safe or there is a logical explanation.

This tragedy is a big reminder that we are still pretty far away from controlling everything.

TRB

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