Quoting s5daw (Reply 88): That little data we have indicates that suddenly, before disappearing, the plane went from it's FL to 0.

IIRC someone explained in one of the first threads on the first day if there is no ADSB data sent you could get a zero altitude

Quoting teo747 (Reply 86): Without anyone noticing? This isn't a James Bond movie in which they can land a huge airliner and taxi it into the underground volcano lair. With all the surveillance and satellite imaging capability out there, if there were a 777 sitting on the ground somewhere it isn't supposed to be, it would be utterly shocking to find out that it hasn't been found by now.

While this may not be James Bond, it could be that the people responsible for monitoring such surveillance could be in on whatever is going on. Also, if it were an abandoned airport front he vietnam war, why would anyone notice an aircraft going into an old airport that is out in the middle of nowhere?

I am simply saying that if someone of power either knows what happened, or contributed and is staying silent for personal gain, why would anyone be shocked that it has not been found yet?

Quoting questions (Reply 99): Has any source indicated the estimated maximum flying time based on the amount of fuel the aircraft had?

I think it was mentioned they had enough fuel to fly to PEK plus another 2 hours flying time.

Quoting lweber557 (Reply 97):

I've thought about that, as well, but I just can't see there being a "soft" landing like that where no one gets out without flotation devices.

Quoting PIKtoYEG (Reply 96): Have the NTSB confirmed who the Lead Investigator is for MH370

Unless the plane made it to Hawaii and then crashed the NTSB will not lead the investigation (unless asked to by the country in whose territory the plane actually crashed).

Food for thought, and possibly also eye candy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCZRwv_568Y

IF the 777 has landed somewhere, it just needed a reasonably hard and flat surface... and the "runway" length can be somewhat reduced, as a plus.


David

What id like to know is, for those that are mechanics etc, what scenarios sees a gradual destruction of equipment allowing one communication system to be shut down 10 minutes before the other?

I also struggle to understand why people are so into terrorism and the plane being shot down because of it.
That scenario falls by the simple fact that any country that shoot down an airline because its been taken over by terrorists in the post 9/11 world will receive full understanding from the rest of the world and have nothing to gain from covering it all up. To the contrary.

As far as i can see the 49 most likely scenarios is different failures on the plane. The 50th is someone committing suicide and not wanting to be found.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 31): We have lots of complaints about incompetence. - I've been in and in command of large emergencies and been the one responsible to communicate to large groups. - Even in the best situations, with cooperating agencies - it is easy to portray incompetence when what is really going on is hard work that is not providing the desired result. * Complaints continue and will despite what any authority does till something happens.

I think that youll find that for as long as the Malaysians held press conferences that stated facts that immediately got contradicted by other speakers, people said they were incompetent. When they stopped making gaffe after gaffe and got their act together during their pressbriefings the complaints more or less ended.
Since then the pressbriefings might be frustrating since they yield very little new info but the mistakes have stopped and so has much of the complaints about the Malaysians efforts.

To avoid being seen as incompetent dont answer things you dont know anything about. it took the malaysian politicians sometime to understand that. Its very different to face the international press compared to a press that works under very strict rules that allows a politician to get away with any white lie.

Quoting lweber557 (Reply 97): Not sure if my theory has been brought up yet but I'm not reading through 20+ threads to see if it was. In some kind of freak error chain the aircraft could have lost all comm, nav systems, and cabin pressure. The pilots would then be forced to make an emergency decent to a lower altitude. Being at night without any comm or nav and possibly without engines (everthing is specualtion) the pilots are forced to ditch into the sea. The aircraft remains mostly intact but takes on a significant amount of water because it is damaged in the night water landing and sinks instantly. Or it breaks into afew pieces that quickly sink. Either way the only survivors who make it out didn't have life rafts or flotation devices and are lost at sea. And 95% of the aircraft is at the bottom of the ocean. I know its out there but as I already said every theory is speculation until they find MH370 and those black boxes.

At least your speculation is simple. And there would still be several hours until sunrise for possible floating broken pieces to sink and go unnoticed (and all following day(s) until high-res imagery satellites started to be used).
Now, who knows what that radar signal caught in the Malacca straight was?
I'm sure there are occasional artifacts in radar data (like any other data set -I know it by experience as I collect and process analytical data for a living...) that get unnoticed, because no one needs to look meticulously at most of data that radars automatically collect.

Quoting CheezWhiz (Reply 85): I was browsing through images on the Tomnod website last night and stumbled across images of 3 objects that looked more interesting than the thousands of other images I've looked at. I bought a membership to Airliners.net so that I could share them with you. Each of the objects are approximately 100 feet in length, similar in size and shape to an aircraft wing or fuselage section. The objects are also grouped nearby one another. Two of the objects are approximately 1/2 mile apart, North to South. The third object lies approximately 2 miles to the West of the other two objects.

I have seen a few of these so far, and while I cannot claim any kind of certainty, I believe them to be whales. The size is right, the shape is right, the bow wake is right, and they are all travelling in the same direction, suggesting a pod of some kind (though rorquals, which anything that size would have to be, don't necessarily travel in pods). Some even appear to have small puffs of vapor nearby, suggesting blowhole blast.

I may be wrong. To me, they look like whales.

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 106): That scenario falls by the simple fact that any country that shoot down an airline because its been taken over by terrorists in the post 9/11 world will receive full understanding from the rest of the world and have nothing to gain from covering it all up.

For killing 200+ innocent people when they could have followed the plane until an obvious target was apparent?

Good morning a.nutters! My, my but isn't this still interesting. Day seven!

On a side note, I wonder how many new subscriptions a.nut is getting. Happy to see so many lurkers coming out to play.

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 2): I was watching CNN and thought of this question. I apologize if it has been asked before, but I do not think this exact one was asked before. What if all of the communications and satellite equipment just died - due to mechanical issues - and the pilots got turned around to the point where they were running out of fuel and tried to land safely in the water, but failed to do it safely?

It seems extremely unlikely that all that equipment AND the instruments died at the same time.

Quoting B747forever (Reply 18): Quoting gosimeon (Reply 16): The data reporting system, they believe, was shut down 1:07 a.m. The transponder -- which transmits location and altitude -- shut down at 1:21 a.m." Why would the shut down of the two systems be separated by more than 10 minutes?

From the vague info we have, and discounting the "still alive" claims, ACARS simply sent the last report at 1:07. We don't know if and when it shut down.

Quoting aftgaffe (Reply 28): What time was "all right good night" and what sort of warning does flight deck get if ACARS fails?

Presumably an error message on the MFD (or whatever Boeing calls the MFD) and/or the FMC.

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 33): Quoting KIAS (Reply 14): I personally do not subscribe to the hijiacking theories. I think we will learn this was a catastrophic event which may have also involved the electrical systems. You know I looked at as much passenger info as I could get and I just didn't see it happening. How would the passengers even know how to turn off the various comms devices. I don't see the pilots slamming it into the sea either but its certainly possible. Is it possible they got signals from under the sea? Somehow off battery power?

Nah. The water would block the signal.

Quoting FltAdmiralRitt (Reply 47): One thing clearly stands out. A fast impact with the ocean will leave few pieces larger than your typical floor mat, and no structure of the aircraft will retain airpockets large enough to float. that leaves Overhead compartments contents and pieces of foam from seats.

Au contraire. AF447 and Adam Air crashed at a high rate of speed and there were still large pieces found.

Quoting teo747 (Reply 86): Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 80): But does this include abandoned airports? Also, if it were a planned incident, they could have built a rudimentary lading strip somewhere... Without anyone noticing? This isn't a James Bond movie in which they can land a huge airliner and taxi it into the underground volcano lair. With all the surveillance and satellite imaging capability out there, if there were a 777 sitting on the ground somewhere it isn't supposed to be, it would be utterly shocking to find out that it hasn't been found by now.

Yes but wouldn't an underground volcano lair be awesome? 


Answers from previous two threads. Apologies for any duplication.

SSTeve: Also, is the engine data sent to RR technically "ACARS?"

Anaswer: Yes it is. ACARS covers a wide range of stuff, including free text messaging.


SQ452: I have talked to my friends in the PR industry on this and the overwhelming consensus on this is they have completely failed to do a proper job managing this crisis. This crisis management and how information was shared, disseminated and then contradicted will be a case study on exactly what NOT to do. Failure to have control of the information flow and coordination of information has given the impression they are unable to properly coordinate this SAR.

Answer: Agreed. I talked about this about five threads ago. The first and biggest mistake was not to assign an experienced person to be the only contact with the press, and to muzzle everyone else.


hivue: This aircraft never reached a gate. If RR gets their engine data by gatelink after the flight then that makes the story sound like just another groundless rumor.

Answer: It would make sense to send brief summaries in flight, in case anything needed maintenance on landing, and then do the whole download at the gate.


B-HOP: Did anyone feel fuel load mentioned say something, if its a five and a half hour flight, why then the Captain take an extra two hour worth of fuel and more to be burnt enroute, was fog forcasted in Beijing? No wonder MH loses money, does that gave a red herring away?

Answer: For a flight of this length, 2 hours of fuel beyond trip fuel would be pretty normal. Taking the most common applicable fuel regulation, this would be fuel to reach an alternate airport in case of diversion, contingency fuel (5% minimum ) and final reserve (30 minutes).


captainx: Can all the transmitters on the plane be turned off from the cockpit - yes or no?

Answer: No. To cut ACARS you need to access the electronics bay behind and under the cockpit.


sennabestever: This is probably way far fetched but since I know nothing about space and how high commercial airlines can get I'll throw it out there just for my own curiosity. What if they plane had a mechanical issue that knocked out comms and put it into an uncontrollable ascent? Is it possible it's floating around up there in near space? Assuming NO, but just curious if this would even be possible?

Answer: No that isn't even remotely possible. An airliner could reach maybe 45000-50000 feet depending on weight. That's too low to achieve a stable orbit due to atmospheric drag, and besides the speed would be much much too low for orbit.


captainx: It only takes 6000 feet to land a 777.

Answer: Nowhere near that far. At low weights the published distance is 4500 feet, but that includes the mandated safety factor and assumes 50ft height at the threshold. Removing the safety factor gives 2695 feet and if you assume 20ft at the threshold you're cutting a few more hundred ft.


flyingturtle: I think Starlionblue mentioned 4500 ft for a lightly loaded/fueled 777, and 3000 ft if you have balls (and don't plan to take off again). On a grass strip, it could be even less.

Answer: Actually grass would make the distance longer. Less friction for the brakes. Also you are quite likely to sink in and damage something. You could land a 727 or 737 on grass/gravel but a 777 stretches the imagination unless you had a very well prepared compacted gravel base with perhaps those metal mesh "instant runway" things the military used to use.


boacvc10: Also: Is this not a situation where we can say it is the Titanic of all aviation disasters?

Answer: Not really. With the Titanic the news and location was already out before the ship sank. This is more Marie Celeste at this point.


nupogodi: The 404th and it can't be found... What a coincidence.

Answer: For the record, I'm not superstitious. However interestingly the number four is very unlucky in Chinese culture because it sounds similar to "death". The majority of buildings in HK don't
have a fourth or fourteenth floor.


FltAdmiralRitt: Air France 447 did leave some larger debris on the surface, but you will recall it impacted the water with almost level wings and belly flopped, stalling at a 1:1 stall ratio or so. it was not moving at maximum speed. closer to 200Knts Considering how rugged the 777, it might have stayed intact while plunging in at far greater speed.

Answer: There's no evidence that a 777 would withstand a given impact better than a 330. They are built to the same specification standards and Boeing is not in the habit of making the structure heavier than it needs to be. Also, what do you mean by "1:1 stall ratio"?


hivue: It took one 767 each to bring down the WTC towers. A 777 gone totally missing is indeed not a comfortable thought.

Answer: Actually it took two, but I take your point.


BruceSmith: Further into speculation, how would a high voltage short on one of the power buses affect cockpit equipment? Could it blow something critical to steering the aircraft leaving the pilots with no input into the flight? Could it trigger a localized fire in the cockpit similar to the Egyptair MS 667 incident that asphyxiated the pilots and left the plane flying stable until it ran out of fuel or lost altitude? A quickish incapacitation by smoke inhalation might explain the heading change if one of the pilots hit a rudder pedal or the yoke during the asphyxiation.

Answer: The radios are not on the same bus as the flight controls, and they're not all on the same bus either. And you'd have to hold the yoke or rudder positively for a bit to make the autopilot to switch off.


Difrano789: Cockpit hit by a very small meteor, destroy the instruments and incapacitate or kill both pilots, no instruments no transponders no comms, the damage is not enough to break the plane and debris so small that impossible to trace on ground, computers still working and able to keep control on surfaces and throttle, due to destruction of the autopilot console the computer may have received any signal, for example heading 280, altitude FL298, and it flew until ran out of fuel somewhere in the world?

Answer: The problem with this is that if the meteor only takes the radios and transponder and leaves the flight controls and throttle, ACARS would still be functioning since it is in the electronics bay. Also, there would have been debris. Somewhere.

I am an aerospace engineer. I don't know that much about the 772 in particular, I have never worked on it. I'm quite familiar with how Boeing builds their fly by wire systems, but not so sure how it would operate.)

I'm wondering why the idea of a Egypt Air 667 type disaster just after reaching cruising altitude was discounted so early in these threads?

I have seen some crazy things in my years, some of which I can't talk about. I have seen some awful, awful wire repair on aircraft and I have also seen some unlikely things when dealing with aircraft electrical systems. I don't know how many times I have heard "That can't happen" .... well it just did. I have seen melted LRUs, I have seen circuit cards fused to each other. melted wire bundles, unrelated systems causing faults in other unrelated systems. I have seen employees put pin little r where pin R should go more times than I can count. I have seen jets with ticking time bombs in their wiring systems.

I just can't help but think, a fire or a critical LRU going off line to cause this.

I think there is too much hype in the media right now regarding everything about this tragedy and too much optimistic speculation, this jet has crashed. I don't know why people love the hijack or suicide theory so much. There are so many things things that can cause an aircraft to exhibit the behaviors believed to have happened regarding

I have read the evidence and nothing stands out as solid evidence of a deliberate act. The jet turned back, systems turned off separately, so what? but do I get the lack of distress call being suspicious in this scenario.

If a fire broke out, it could start knocking systems off one by one. When the crew finally figured out there was a fire they might have tried to do something about it and turn back to Kuala Lampur, but then it could have been too late.

Maybe a 777 guru can tell me this. If the Autopilot were on and a fire broke out and you had a heading of 24 selected and you changed it to 190 but the signal cut out between pilot inputs and the flight control surfaces half way through the turn what would the aircraft do? Would it try to level it's wings? would it shut off? would it continue flying with the same attitude as when the signal was lost. I looked though C-17 manuals, but couldn't find any possible solid answer other than It would depend on this this or this and how bad this this and this system was degraded.

I thought that after 9/11, that it was mandated that the transponders could not be turned off while the aircraft is in the air mode. This includes pulling the circuit breakers that power the the transponders. If anyone can correct me, please do. Any time that there is no weight on the landing gear the squat switches put the aircraft in the air mode.   

There is a new Wall Street Journal article this evening indicating that there was 4 more hours of some sort of maintenance communication the aircraft was trying to make through satellite link. They are not specific if it is ACARS. WSJ seem to be the only ones who may have some insider contacts and the authorities are downplaying each time all they published since this morning.

If this is true, then the theory of cockpit intervention is making sense more and more. Turning off transponders, and VHF Data Link radios for the ACARS system is more straight forward through the control tuning panel. But shutting down the Satellite communication is not as straight forward and may have not been turned off.

About ACARS and transponder being shut at different times. (1:07 and 1:21, I have read)

When was the ATC last communication with pilot?. Was it before the two events?. Had it been after any, it will discard fire as a cause, won't it? Would it raise alarms on the pilot?

(Sorry if it is already explained, but I haven't found in all this stuff)


On the other hand, if the plane was hijacked to a hidden/secret airport at night. How achievable would be to fly and land safely at night in those circunstantes? . What flight systems could be available for the aircraft to fly safely in this scenario (in and out the plane)?
(Pardon my ignorance, I suppose some avionics knowledge would be enough, but I don't have)

Thanks

Quoting trex8 (Reply 100): IIRC someone explained in one of the first threads on the first day if there is no ADSB data sent you could get a zero altitude

But that makes no sense. If data package is not sent, why would it be in the database and why would location, heading and speed be there?

Quoting savethequads (Reply 111): I have seen some crazy things in my years, some of which I can't talk about. I have seen some awful, awful wire repair on aircraft and I have also seen some unlikely things when dealing with aircraft electrical systems. I don't know how many times I have heard "That can't happen" .... well it just did. I have seen melted LRUs, I have seen circuit cards fused to each other. melted wire bundles, unrelated systems causing faults in other unrelated systems. I have seen employees put pin little r where pin R should go more times than I can count. I have seen jets with ticking time bombs in their wiring systems. I just can't help but think, a fire or a critical LRU going off line to cause this.

I'm not an aerospace engineer, but I find this the most reasonable explanation as well.

[Edited 2014-03-13 17:22:11]

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 101): While this may not be James Bond, it could be that the people responsible for monitoring such surveillance could be in on whatever is going on. Also, if it were an abandoned airport front he vietnam war, why would anyone notice an aircraft going into an old airport that is out in the middle of nowhere? I am simply saying that if someone of power either knows what happened, or contributed and is staying silent for personal gain, why would anyone be shocked that it has not been found yet?

But surely there are multiple entities looking at this data - we've already seen satellite data provided by the US (Tomnod) and China (suspected debris photos), so it seems pretty implausible that everyone who could find this plane would be in on it and hiding something. We will see...but I am 99.9999% confident that this plane is at the bottom of the ocean - we just don't know where yet.

Quoting hivue (Reply 104): Unless the plane made it to Hawaii and then crashed the NTSB will not lead the investigation (unless asked to by the country in whose territory the plane actually crashed).

Or the Marianas or Guam or American Samoa....  

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 110): Au contraire. AF447 and Adam Air crashed at a high rate of speed and there were still large pieces found.

I think what people are talking about is a very, very steep high-velocity impact, whereas AF 447 struck at a much shallower angle.

I know this has been asked a bunch, but I have yet to see an answer, but has there been any official disclosure about how much fuel was actually loaded. I freely admit I could have missed it.

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 2): and the pilots got turned around to the point where they were running out of fuel and tried to land safely in the water, but failed to do it safely?

That is definitely a possibility and a really sad one if you think about it.

Quoting IslandRob (Reply 10): Andy Pasztor of the Wall Street Journal now reporting that US officials are now exploring the possibility that MH370 in fact landed somewhere rather than crashing. This has always been a point of speculation, but it appears the US Govt is now taking it more seriously.

I've been saying it since I think post 7, I really think someone should look into Chinese espionage. I know the current theory is that it flew to the Indian Ocean, but if that detail wasn't true, and it continued to fly north, I think it's possible. I started off just thinking it was a crazy possibility. I am slightly more convinced.

Quoting 345tas (Reply 13): Two U.S. officials tell ABC News the U.S. believes that the shutdown of two communication systems happened separately on Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. One source said this indicates the plane did not come out of the sky because of a catastrophic failure

That would certainly lead one to believe direct intervention by the pilot.

Quoting ROSWELL41 (Reply 62): I have not yet read any plausible scenario for mechanical failure. A hijacking would provide enough time to get out some type of distress signal. This was sabotage by one of the pilots - most likely the captain.

I agree. I really think one of them could have been recruited, locked the other one out, turned everything off, descended to 29,500, flew a route that took it around known Radar, and then what Radar it did get picked up on by the Chinese government, covered up and proceeded to a remote landing site. Meanwhile, the Chinese release satellite imagery as a red herring, hoping people eventually think it just plummeted to the ocean.

Quoting teo747 (Reply 86): Without anyone noticing? This isn't a James Bond movie in which they can land a huge airliner and taxi it into the underground volcano lair.

I bet you could in remote parts of China. There are some crazy Chinese landing strips out there that aren't official airports.

Quoting PIKtoYEG (Reply 96): Have the NTSB confirmed who the Lead Investigator is for MH370?

The NTSB will not be leading this investigation as it didn't happen on US territory, except I think if it was over international waters and Malaysia requests the US to lead. Not sure.

Not sure about territorial waters at the vanishing point but I think it was either Malaysia or Vietnam.

This actually leads us sideways to an interesting point: If the plane is never found, who leads the investigation? The country above where it disappeared?

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 106): What id like to know is, for those that are mechanics etc, what scenarios sees a gradual destruction of equipment allowing one communication system to be shut down 10 minutes before the other?

Fire.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 110): Answer: No. To cut ACARS you need to access the electronics bay behind and under the cockpit.

I think you mean to cut off SATCOM, right?

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 110): hivue: It took one 767 each to bring down the WTC towers. A 777 gone totally missing is indeed not a comfortable thought. Answer: Actually it took two, but I take your point.

No. As I said it took one each.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 110): From the vague info we have, and discounting the "still alive" claims, ACARS simply sent the last report at 1:07. We don't know if and when it shut down.

If the plane flew on till it ran out of gas, surely ACARS would have something to say.

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 118): I've been saying it since I think post 7, I really think someone should look into Chinese espionage. I know the current theory is that it flew to the Indian Ocean, but if that detail wasn't true, and it continued to fly north, I think it's possible. I started off just thinking it was a crazy possibility. I am slightly more convinced.

But what motivation does the Chinese government have to undertake such a ridiculously elaborate plot to steal a 777 and cover it up, when its own countries' airlines are already flying 777s all over the world every day?

Quoting cjg225 (Reply 117): Or the Marianas or Guam or American Samoa

Correct. I guess I'm geographically challenged.  

Quoting socalgeo (Reply 77): I pulled the locations off of the interweb, so they are probably not complete... link to live map:http://sandbox.maps.arcgis.com/apps/OnePane/basicviewer/index.html?appid=95cbede59b3e471eb14b52c362966934

This is a great map.

So if ACARS and the transponder were switched off...chances are the CVR and FDR were also switched off (I know you can switch the CVR off - less clear if you can switch off the FDR). So even if found..."black boxes" may not yield any info?

- DBC

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 113): There is a new Wall Street Journal article this evening indicating that there was 4 more hours of some sort of maintenance communication the aircraft was trying to make through satellite link. They are not specific if it is ACARS. WSJ seem to be the only ones who may have some insider contacts and the authorities are downplaying each time all they published since this morning. If this is true, then the theory of cockpit intervention is making sense more and more. Turning off transponders, and VHF Data Link radios for the ACARS system is more straight forward through the control tuning panel. But shutting down the Satellite communication is not as straight forward and may have not been turned off.

Scroll up. Text search previous posts.

Quoting iberiadc852 (Reply 114): About ACARS and transponder being shut at different times. (1:07 and 1:21, I have read)

Scroll up. Text search previous posts.

Quoting cjg225 (Reply 117): Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 110): Au contraire. AF447 and Adam Air crashed at a high rate of speed and there were still large pieces found. I think what people are talking about is a very, very steep high-velocity impact, whereas AF 447 struck at a much shallower angle.

You'd still get debris. When the wings hit the water every the rear half of the plane would concertina and shear, taking up much of the impact load. So the tail would hit much, much slower. You can compare with rocket sled experiments when they slam stuff into concrete. There are still pieces left.

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 118): I agree. I really think one of them could have been recruited, locked the other one out, turned everything off, descended to 29,500, flew a route that took it around known Radar, and then what Radar it did get picked up on by the Chinese government, covered up and proceeded to a remote landing site. Meanwhile, the Chinese release satellite imagery as a red herring, hoping people eventually think it just plummeted to the ocean.

Come on guys. For what motive? This is not a spy thriller. 239 people are very likely dead.

As has been stated over and over above, what does China want with a 777 that they cannot get by looking at the ones that their national airline OWNS? Why not just steal one of those, or hide it in a hangar and take it apart, if reverse-engineering is the goal? Better yet, why not just read the instruction manual? Come on.

If this was a hijacking, there's NO conceivable reason that some sort of state actor would be involved. All potential players, besides none of them being insane enough to try anything like hijacking and vanishing a foreign aircraft and very likely starting a war, have easier ways to get ahold of 777s, and little to no reason to do so.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 125): You'd still get debris. When the wings hit the water every the rear half of the plane would concertina and shear, taking up much of the impact load. So the tail would hit much, much slower. You can compare with rocket sled experiments when they slam stuff into concrete. There are still pieces left.

I don't think anyone is saying there would be no pieces left.

Quoting hivue (Reply 120): Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 110): Answer: No. To cut ACARS you need to access the electronics bay behind and under the cockpit. I think you mean to cut off SATCOM, right?

No I mean ACARS, but it doesn't matter. ACARS and SATCOM are two different "boxes". ACARS compiles information, and then sends it with SATCOM (in this case). Pulling the breaker(s) on either one would stop ACARS transmissions but I'm pretty sure you need to get to the electronics bay in either case..

Quoting hivue (Reply 120): Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 110): From the vague info we have, and discounting the "still alive" claims, ACARS simply sent the last report at 1:07. We don't know if and when it shut down. If the plane flew on till it ran out of gas, surely ACARS would have something to say.

"You seem to be out of fuel. Would you like to place a fuel order now? Have your credit card ready." 

Quoting hivue (Reply 120): Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 110): hivue: It took one 767 each to bring down the WTC towers. A 777 gone totally missing is indeed not a comfortable thought. Answer: Actually it took two, but I take your point. No. As I said it took one each.

Oops! Sorry, I just woke up.

Quoting cjg225 (Reply 127): Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 125): You'd still get debris. When the wings hit the water every the rear half of the plane would concertina and shear, taking up much of the impact load. So the tail would hit much, much slower. You can compare with rocket sled experiments when they slam stuff into concrete. There are still pieces left. I don't think anyone is saying there would be no pieces left.

Fair dinkum.

[Edited 2014-03-13 17:34:27]

Quoting s5daw (Reply 88): Flightradar has data till 1:21, meaning ADS-B was transmitting till then. Actually this is the best and only factual data the public has. Everything else is noise.

s5daw, apologies for hijacking your point, but something that has been on my mind during all this is my understanding that ADS-B does not guarantee a factual position. I believe it is possible to inject fake ADS-B transmissions to falsify the location of an aircraft, it's extremely unlikely to have happened in this situation but in my opinion it's only a matter of time before someone attempts to use ADS-B to mask a hijacking event. As far as I've read, there is nothing coded in civilian ADS-B to sign or otherwise verify that a transmission came from the aircraft whose data is being broadcast - it is possible to spoof this transmission. The scenario would go something like this, the aircraft's real ADS-B stream would be sniffed and decoded ahead of time or at the beginning of the flight via freely available decoding solutions. At a predetermined time/ location, the aircraft's real ADS-B broadcasts would be terminated by turning off the transponder. Spoofed transmissions could then be broadcast from anywhere within range of known ADS-B ground stations or the army of home enthusiasts receiving for flightradar24 or flightaware. The spoofed transmissions could include completely false yet believable position, altitude, track, speed data. The squawk code could even be changed to 7600 to signify lost comms. As long as the transmissions were injected every so often along the filed flight plan route I don't see how anyone would be able to tell the aircraft isn't actually there until such time the spoofed target should be in range of PSR and doesn't generate a return, or SSR interrogations aren't replied to properly. Until that time the real aircraft could be flying in a totally different direction.

I really hope as a result of losing this 777 that some changes are made to how aircraft are tracked outside of radar coverage, and particularly to strengthen the integrity of ADS-B. That's just my 2c.

Quoting s5daw (Reply 115): But that makes no sense. If data package is not sent, why would it be in the database and why would location, heading and speed be there?

Likely the receiver did not get the full ADS-B data. Maybe the transponder was shut off during the broadcast and did not send it out, maybe the receiver was just too far from the aircraft and the signal was too noisy to decode.

These ADS-B tracking sites are far from 100% reliable.

Quoting teo747 (Reply 121): But what motivation does the Chinese government have to undertake such a ridiculously elaborate plot to steal a 777 and cover it up, when its own countries' airlines are already flying 777s all over the world every day?

I said it before, I'll say it again. Reverse engineering. And before the other responses get brought up: 1) yes they have access to China Southern's, but that is too obvious because sooner or later someone would ask questions. And
2) it takes YEARS, maybe even decades, to reverse engineer something, so just taking a little while longer in a D-check is not a reverse engineering option.

I know it is far fetched. But it seems less far fetched in thread 20 than it does in thread 7 based on what little we know and can deduce.

Quoting teo747 (Reply 121): Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 118): I've been saying it since I think post 7, I really think someone should look into Chinese espionage. I know the current theory is that it flew to the Indian Ocean, but if that detail wasn't true, and it continued to fly north, I think it's possible. I started off just thinking it was a crazy possibility. I am slightly more convinced. But what motivation does the Chinese government have to undertake such a ridiculously elaborate plot to steal a 777 and cover it up, when its own countries' airlines are already flying 777s all over the world every day?

And they have the resources to buy a brand new one and park it somewhere for ever and never use it.

Unless they are going to use the plane and the dead pax like in the Sherlock Holmes season 2 story! But they could probably get the plane and the bodies more easily than creating a major international incident.

Quoting hamiltondaniel (Reply 126): As has been stated over and over above, what does China want with a 777 that they cannot get by looking at the ones that their national airline OWNS? Why not just steal one of those, or hide it in a hangar and take it apart, if reverse-engineering is the goal? Better yet, why not just read the instruction manual? Come on.

Thank you. There is nothing "state-of-the-art and secret" about a 772ER model used in the hundreds all over the world.

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 118): I've been saying it since I think post 7, I really think someone should look into Chinese espionage. I know the current theory is that it flew to the Indian Ocean, but if that detail wasn't true, and it continued to fly north, I think it's possible. I started off just thinking it was a crazy possibility. I am slightly more convinced.

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 118): I agree. I really think one of them could have been recruited, locked the other one out, turned everything off, descended to 29,500, flew a route that took it around known Radar, and then what Radar it did get picked up on by the Chinese government, covered up and proceeded to a remote landing site. Meanwhile, the Chinese release satellite imagery as a red herring, hoping people eventually think it just plummeted to the ocean.

If it crashed over land in China and they just cleaned up and planted trees. That's a possibility. They don't like a blemish on their aviation safety record. How many times you heard about a blown tire or missed approach.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 113): There is a new Wall Street Journal article this evening indicating that there was 4 more hours of some sort of maintenance communication the aircraft was trying to make through satellite link.

Interesting. I have a feeling the plane made it a lot farther than MAS and the current SAR think...

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 105): IF the 777 has landed somewhere, it just needed a reasonably hard and flat surface... and the "runway" length can be somewhat reduced, as a plus.

I think it would be hard to do at night. If they flew West, and their last trace was at 0107 in the Gulf of Thailand / South China Sea area, and they had 5 hours more fuel (or 7 hours if they took on an extra 2 hours of fuel before departing), it would have had to have flown until sunrise to pull off such a landing. Where could that be? Somewhere on the sub-continent?

Quoting OTF (Reply 102): Quoting questions (Reply 99): Has any source indicated the estimated maximum flying time based on the amount of fuel the aircraft had? I think it was mentioned they had enough fuel to fly to PEK plus another 2 hours flying time.

Can't believe why the exact fuel figure has not yet been made public. That would at least give MAS and the SAR / authorities a maximum radius to consider.

Quoting lweber557 (Reply 97): the pilots are forced to ditch into the sea. The aircraft remains mostly intact but takes on a significant amount of water because it is damaged in the night water landing and sinks instantly. Or it breaks into afew pieces that quickly sink.

That was my initial opinion. Plenty of time for an intact airframe or large pieces of wreckage to sink before daylight.

One pilot could not both fly the plane and go pull the ACARS breaker which is below-deck, below the gally (and not easy to quickly get to) per a 777 pilot just on CNN. Were both involved? I'm guessing they did indeed land it somewhere, because had they wanted to crash they would have done it right away.

[Edited 2014-03-13 17:41:45]

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 128): No I mean ACARS,

From KIAS's post 40 in the previous part:

"Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 8):
If you just pull the CB's for the VHF, HF, and SATCOM which I believe are located in the cockpit you've in effect disabled the ACARS.

No. The circuit breakers are located in the E/E bay."

Quoting hamiltondaniel (Reply 126): Come on guys.

Easy now. I think I have kept a tone of recognizing the theory is a bit out there, and have provided answers to reasonable questions. You don't need to be disrespectful, even if you disagree.

Quoting hamiltondaniel (Reply 126): As has been stated over and over above, what does China want with a 777 that they cannot get by looking at the ones that their national airline OWNS?

And as I have stated before, a missing China Southern aircraft that vanishes raises a lot of eyebrows. A suspected down Malyasian plane that is "never found" it is harder to link China to that.

Quoting hamiltondaniel (Reply 126): Why not just steal one of those, or hide it in a hangar and take it apart, if reverse-engineering is the goal? Better yet, why not just read the instruction manual? Come on.

Becuase it takes decades to reverse engineer something and having one of their own planes gone for that long raises questions.

Quoting hamiltondaniel (Reply 126): All potential players, besides none of them being insane enough to try anything like hijacking....

You're telling me there isn't a single pilot in this world that if offer ungodly sums of money for just turning off a transponder, flying a clandestine route to avoid radar until into China, and doing what he does everyday which is land a plane, that would find that so "insane" that not one would take a Chinese intelligence agencies offer. I mean yes, it is at it's root insane. But it does have some logic to it.

Quoting hamiltondaniel (Reply 126): ...have easier ways to get ahold of 777s, and little to no reason to do so.

If you wanted to get a hold of 777 for a long time (longer than say a D-check), with out raising eyebrows, what would be an easier way? I am asking this in all sincerity.

Quoting captainx (Reply 136): One pilot could not both fly the plane and go pull the ACARS breaker which is below-deck, below the gally per a 777 pilot just on CNN. Were both involved? I'm guessing they did indeed land it somewhere, because had they wanted to crash they would have done it right away.

On PPRuNe a 777 pilot mentioned that you can simply turn on/off various ACARS broadcasting modes (VHF/HF/SATCOM) from the computer right there in the cockpit. I am unsure if you can turn them all off from there, but it's likely you wouldn't need to literally pull a breaker to suppress those messages.

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 131): Reverse engineering. And before the other responses get brought up: 1) yes they have access to China Southern's, but that is too obvious because sooner or later someone would ask questions. And 2) it takes YEARS, maybe even decades, to reverse engineer something, so just taking a little while longer in a D-check is not a reverse engineering option.

Whatever the outcome of this mystery, I don't buy the reverse engineering argument.

This is for many reasons, not the least of which is that this airframe design is a couple of decades old. If you were going to reverse engineer something, you would go for something more state-of-the-art.

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 131): I said it before, I'll say it again. Reverse engineering.

Reverse engineering of WHAT? This is not a B2 bomber we're talking about here. This is a 15-year old design for a long-haul airliner. The technology on it is advanced but not at all secret. There is nothing on a 777 that does not exist on other aircraft, including Chinese-designed aircraft like those of Comac. It is an exceptionally well-designed airplane, but it is NOT some sort of futuretech god-machine.

[Edited 2014-03-13 17:43:46]

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 138): If you wanted to get a hold of 777 for a long time (longer than say a D-check), with out raising eyebrows, what would be an easier way? I am asking this in all sincerity.

Buy one. They sell them, you know.

Here's a bargain: http://www.controller.com/listingsde.../2001-BOEING-777-200ER/1314333.htm

52 million! China's government probably spends that every few minutes!

[Edited 2014-03-13 17:46:06]

Quoting Western727 (Reply 133): There is nothing "state-of-the-art and secret" about a 772ER model used in the hundreds all over the world

It isn't about being state of the art and secret. It is about having the time to disemsemable it and re-engineer it. It takes decades.

Quoting trex8 (Reply 132): And they have the resources to buy a brand new one and park it somewhere for ever and never use it.

I'll say it again because people seem to not read my response to that, they can't do that if they don't want to raise any questions.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 128): "You seem to be out of fuel. Would you like to place a fuel order now? Have your credit card ready."

No. If the engines are fuel starved I'm assuming that ACARS/EHM would phone home with that info.

[Edited 2014-03-13 17:46:12]

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 143): I'll say it again because people seem to not read my response to that, they can't do that if they don't want to raise any questions.

Hijacking an entire airplane full of people doesn't raise questions? Come on.

Consider the cost-benefit analysis here.

Benefits: Well, maybe you learn a few tricks that Boeing uses to build great airplanes, tricks that probably you could have figured out without taking the entire airplane apart, killing the pax, etc. etc. etc.

Costs: If anyone catches you, total annihilation. That would be war.

[Edited 2014-03-13 17:46:16]

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 139): but it's likely you wouldn't need to literally pull a breaker to suppress those messages.

But to stop SATCOM from pinging you would need to pull the breaker, right?

Quoting captainx (Reply 136): had they wanted to crash they would have done it right away.

I would suspect they would at least want to fly for long enough (30 mins+) for the CVR to write over itself to get rid of any verbal evidence. Or, if they were really on a mission, they would have just aimed it at a point that would take it to the most remote area possible so it would be hard to find and if the FDRs were ever recovered they would just show a gradual decent rather than full forward pressure on the yoke by the PF...

Also, if the pilots were involved and have taken the plane, I guess they would have known that the plane recently undertook a maintenance check - thus they intentionally took a good / mechanically sound plane for future use...

[Edited 2014-03-13 17:49:19]

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 131): I said it before, I'll say it again. Reverse engineering. And before the other responses get brought up: 1) yes they have access to China Southern's, but that is too obvious because sooner or later someone would ask questions. And 2) it takes YEARS, maybe even decades, to reverse engineer something, so just taking a little while longer in a D-check is not a reverse engineering option.

They could just say that one of the existing 777s had a major mechanical failure and has been written off if they wanted to get one to study. Or buy a new one. Seems easier than somehow collaborating with Malaysian pilots to steal a 777 out of the air with over 200 innocent people on board who would need to be killed or held prisoner for years upon years to keep everything covered up. Plus, if a missing Malaysian airliner is sitting in a hangar somewhere in remote China, someone is eventually going to see it there and say something. Just my opinion of course, but a crash into the ocean that simply hasn't been found yet is many orders of magnitude more likely than a government using a plot that might even be a bit too far out there for Hollywood action movies in order to steal the plane for reverse engineering. We will see! However it turns out, I hope for a resolution soon so that the families of the missing passengers can move forward and get some closure.

Quoting hivue (Reply 137): Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 128): No I mean ACARS, From KIAS's post 40 in the previous part: "Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 8): you just pull the CB's for the VHF, HF, and SATCOM which I believe are located in the cockpit you've in effect disabled the ACARS. No. The circuit breakers are located in the E/E bay."

Ah thx. But that's my point. To disable ACARS you have to pull either the ACARS box/CB, or the SATCOM CB.

Quoting captainx (Reply 136): One pilot could not both fly the plane and go pull the ACARS breaker which is below-deck, below the gally (and not easy to quickly get to) per a 777 pilot just on CNN. Were both involved? I'm guessing they did indeed land it somewhere, because had they wanted to crash they would have done it right away.

This pilot seems to be thinking in terms of "legal operations." Once you've decided to throw all that out of the window, a lone pilot could set the autopilot and then leave the cockpit to run his errand.

Quoting hivue (Reply 144): Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 128): "You seem to be out of fuel. Would you like to place a fuel order now? Have your credit card ready." No. If the engines are fuel starved I'm assuming that ACARS/EHM would phone home with that info.

I was making a joke obviously. Like when a printer says it is almost out of ink and offers to take you to the Canon ordering page online.

[Edited 2014-03-13 17:47:49]