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Stitch
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 1:45 am

Quoting PDXflyer31 (Reply 285):
The plane was flown to Burma. Its being taken apart and shipped to China in crates, to be reverse engineered.
Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 289):
I have been saying the same thing as a theory (not that I believe it, but as a theory) since Part 7 for almost the exact same reasoning you have and was crowned Xenophobic and irrational by most.

Far easier to just write-off one of their own 777s in an "accident" (say like what happened to that Etihad A340-600) and just scrap it on site and look at it that way.
 
jelliesR
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 1:49 am

Significant Lithium battery shipment in cargo.

Sorry I didn't see this posted and did a search. NYT says there was a significant lithium battery shipment in the cargo.
Fire - partial disabling of many electronics - attempts to save plane including via oxygen starvation.
Seems the most likely scenario to me.
It would also validate the oil rig witness. A Boeing expert said "fire" was one reason the transponders could go out the way they did. A turn back to penang as the nearest airport and attempted descent but perhaps control and nav was so impacted they decided to go north, knowing they had fuel, while working out how to get back more control.

[Edited 2014-03-14 18:54:39]
 
lweber557
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 1:50 am

Quoting PDXflyer31 (Reply 285):

If the Chinese wanted to reverse engineer a 777 it would be alot easier to just "borrow" one from a Chinese airline then to pay off a pilot from another country and fly it to Burma. I'm pretty sure the chinese government could acquire an aircraft from one of its airlines for free just by demanding so. What about the passengers that weren't Chinese? Would they just be executed and never heard from again?

If there was any kind of hijacking done by Chinese people it would have been done by the terrorist group that has been responsible for those knife attacks. But if it had been hijacked whatever group responsible would have claimed responsibility by now.

Its all speculation but I'm narrowing it down to pilot suicide in a remote location or some kind of freak error chain that took the aircraft off course and into the sea.

[Edited 2014-03-14 18:53:13]
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SuseJ772
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 1:50 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 300):
Far easier to just write-off one of their own 777s in an "accident" (say like what happened to that Etihad A340-600) and just scrap it on site and look at it that way.

I'll give you the fake accident was the only thing someone suggested that made sense as a simpler method. I think their idea was a hanger fire. So I'll give you that. Still think that might raise some eyebrows and unwanted attention. But your suggestion is a reasonable counter to the theory for sure.
Currently at PIE, requesting FWA >> >>
 
CaliAtenza
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 1:51 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 290):

Isn't there always a SSBN on patrol in each ocean? I'm sure there are SSN's in the area as well..
 
undertheradar
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 1:53 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 297):

my post is based on my theory that I posted many posts ago! im not going to repeat the whole thing...way too much repetition already!!

in a nut shell...ONE pilot took control...flew aircraft over Indian Ocean...and took a dive into it.....the HOW and WHY will only be revealed AFTER / IF the aircraft is found
 
btfarrwm
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 1:54 am

Quoting PDXflyer31 (Reply 285):

I think it's more likely that the Chinese government blew the plane out of the skies to avoid another potential 9/11 rather than this elaborate scheme. Why reverse engineer a 12-year old 777 when China Southern and Hainan and many other Asian carriers are already flying 787s?
 
audioace87
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 1:57 am

https://twitter.com/Johan_Jaaffar/status/444615514568929280/photo/1

I have seen this in the thread yet. Aparently the NST broke their big news on the front page, validating what we mostly already figured out based on sketchy reports. I've been reading and studying aviation disasters for the last 10 years.. I for one am totally mind=blown on this one…
 
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N328KF
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:00 am

Quoting CaliAtenza (Reply 304):
Isn't there always a SSBN on patrol in each ocean? I'm sure there are SSN's in the area as well..

US SSBNs can hit their targets the moment they leave port. There's no reason for them to be in the Indian Ocean. There are usually several each in the Pacific and Atlantic, but their whole mission is to hide until needed. Why would they expose themselves in this manner?

I wouldn't be surprised if there's an SSN or two in the area, likely one of the Guam-based subs.

The fact of the matter is that the US has ships built specifically for this purpose, and we've used them before (Thresher, Scorpion, K-129, Titanic, AF447, etc.) Except for K-129, most of the high-profile deep sea finds have been done by Ballard and/or Woods Hole, and done with US Navy involvement. (Titanic was done as a cover story for operations on Thresher and Scorpion.)
“In the age of information, ignorance is a choice.”
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Stitch
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:02 am

Quoting undertheradar (Reply 305):
in a nut shell...ONE pilot took control...flew aircraft over Indian Ocean...and took a dive into it.....the HOW and WHY will only be revealed AFTER / IF the aircraft is found

Well if they wanted to ditch it in deep water to make it harder to discover what happened, that does make some sense. But if it was a suicide, I would think just doing it "anywhere" would work as well and the quicker they did the deed, the less chance of interference from others aboard.
 
gulfstream650
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:08 am

Mods- please can we have a new thread. Thanks
I don't proclaim to be the best pilot in the world but I'm safe
 
Tangowhisky
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:11 am

Quoting gulfstream650 (Reply 310):
But if it was a suicide, I would think just doing it "anywhere" would work as well and the quicker they did the deed, the less chance of interference from others aboard.

Exactly, Well said.
Only the paranoid survive
 
jelliesR
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:12 am

only one post so far, in all these topics, apart from mine with the word lithium in it, according to google. Sorry I might be wrong on that but I did a search.

I find that incredible.

The plane had one or more pallets of lithium batteries in the cargo manifest and nobody is discussing how that is the most likely and simplest cause? It was loaded ok but moved in flight, started heating up. The fire spread. Lithium battery fires are unstoppable until the lithium is exhausted, and a fire is unpredictable. It doesn't take out the whole plane structure, it removes flooring, burns cable bundles. Leaves the plane in an uncertain state. The turnback was when the cargo fire light came on, by the time they decided to squawk emergency the critical systems were out.
 
undertheradar
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:13 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 309):

..... the 'workings' of an individuals mind is harder to decipher.... there's a thing called 'Asian pride' and 'saving face' in this part of the world....
 
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Stitch
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:16 am

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 312):
The plane had one or more pallets of lithium batteries in the cargo manifest and nobody is discussing how that is the most likely and simplest cause?

Well we would first have to confirm the batteries were aboard and that they were lithium-ion batteries (lithium batteries are significantly more stable).

Once we confirm lithium-ion batteries were onboard, we would need to confirm what type and formulation and what else was packed with them (I believe the Li-Ion battery fires that led to crashes were packed with other flammable materials on the pallet).

We also need to take into account the fire suppression systems aboard the plane.

We then also need to take into account how an uncontrolled fire in the bays could lead to loss of certain transponder and communications functionality aboard the plane before the crew knew there was an issue (for if they received a smoke or fire warning, they should have had time to alert someone).

[Edited 2014-03-14 19:18:19]
 
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Dalavia
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:16 am

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 312):
The plane had one or more pallets of lithium batteries in the cargo manifest and nobody is discussing how that is the most likely and simplest cause?

Thinking laterally along that line, can a large package of lithium batteries be used to conceal some other kind of cargo, in the way that lead can hide other contents from x-rays?

If the lithium can conceal or disguise something more sinister (gas? bacteria? whatever?), then theft or piracy or high-end smuggling becomes a more likely scenario.

[Edited 2014-03-14 19:18:39]

[Edited 2014-03-14 19:29:26]
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:19 am

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 312):

So then the wreckage should be roughly in the area they have been searching? But still nothing...
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
jelliesR
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:20 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 314):
Well we would first have to confirm the batteries were aboard and that they were lithium-ion batteries (lithium batteries are stable).

Well the confirmation is in the NYT from US officials presumably the cargo manifest.

I'm familiar with lithium batteries shipped by air and they are often the larger ones for hobbyist use e.g. RC. But they could also be laptop batteries in bulk or anything else. All formulations would be risky.

Yes they are stable *if* they are manufactured properly and *if* they are packed properly and *if* not damaged in transit or loading or in flight. That is a lot of ifs and why they are difficult to ship by air now.

I would not want to fly in a passenger jet with commercial quantities of lithium batteries stored in the hold.

Once they start, they can't be stopped with fire suppression systems. They burn hot and contain their own oxygen. They burn until they use up the chemicals.
 
Tangowhisky
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:21 am

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 312):
lithium batteries

The plane flew perfectly for over 4 hours on a constant altitude in what seems to be an airway (authorities are not saying which one). If you look at the rest of the information that is unfolding, there is very little evidence that the plane had technical problems. The theory of fire, structural failure, mechanical failure, loss of pressurization due to a failure of any sort are becoming distant possibilities by the day. The possibility of deliberate and skillful hijacking is what the details are pointing to.
Only the paranoid survive
 
jelliesR
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:21 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 316):
So then the wreckage should be roughly in the area they have been searching? But still nothing...

Why?
A lithium fire goes out, after a while, and the plane can still be flyable. Just who knows in what state.

Imagine someone with a welding torch randomly destroys the enclosed walls ceiling and floor of a cargo hold. What systems do they cut? all of them? some of them? it is unpredictable.

The plane could be a flying mess but still flying.
 
jelliesR
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:23 am

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 318):
The plane flew perfectly

I'm reading it flew "erratically".
There is not zero evidence of malfunction, there is almost zero *communication*. That is very different.
 
JAAlbert
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:24 am

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 312):
nobody is discussing how that is the most likely and simplest cause?

I'm not sure that's any more likely or simpler a scenario than a couple of hijackers storming the cockpit or one of the pilots going nuts.
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:24 am

Quoting undertheradar (Reply 313):

..... the 'workings' of an individuals mind is harder to decipher.... there's a thing called 'Asian pride' and 'saving face' in this part of the world....

Yes, "saving face" is one of the most important things in this part of the world. I can't see that ever changing, even for the sake of an investigation...

Quoting undertheradar (Reply 305):

my post is based on my theory that I posted many posts ago! im not going to repeat the whole thing...way too much repetition already!!

True. And I'm sure there will be more if this topic gets to 100 threads!
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socalgeo
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:25 am

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 293):
Quoting socalgeo (Reply 288):Thanks! If you have coordinates and url links for any of the Tomnod images I can add them...http://mh370.exodus.vyinnovation.com - you probably know how to pull it from the source code, but if not, I can send it to you in a CSV if you want.

Done, You can use the bookmark tool, or you can zoom into the Tomnod Challenge area. I set the scale dependency so the points only draw when you are zoomed in pretty close. I dont know if this is a complete set of the images, but it is what was there. BTW, I added the URL for the image on the Tomnod system into each point, so if you click on a point you will see a pop up window and you can click on the More Info link in the window.

Link to updated map:http://sandbox.maps.arcgis.com/apps/OnePane/basicviewer/index.html?appid=95cbede59b3e471eb14b52c362966934

SoCalGeo

[Edited 2014-03-14 19:27:01]
 
mymorningsong
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:27 am

What is the duration of recording capacity for the cockpit. NBC Nightly News I just watched mentioned two hours, but that seems wrong.
 
jelliesR
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:30 am

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 321):
I'm not sure that's any more likely or simpler a scenario

It has precedent. There have been a number of lithium fires, and hazardous cargo fires, and with random outcomes from risky to deadly.

But post 9/11 with secured cockpit doors and intelligence on passengers, I think an appalling fire is just more likely especially if the plane actually had a commercial lithium battery shipment in the hold. If it ascended to higher altitudes the only thing that would burn is the batteries. The lack of oxygen especially if the cabin decompressed should limit any spread of the fire vs the extent you typical see on the ground -- where everything burns.

[Edited 2014-03-14 19:30:56]

[Edited 2014-03-14 19:31:47]
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:30 am

Quoting CaliAtenza (Reply 266):

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 258):

First off, the autopilot does not store routes. That's done by the Flight Management Computer. The autopilot can take inputs from the FMC. But yes, you can store routes there. But what would be the point? You can punch in a new route by hand in a few minutes.

ah okay, yeah the FMC, that's what i meant to say  . Thanks for the clarification  . Why i asked is that the turn was pretty sharp; almost instantaneous, after that handoff...so maybe the route was ready to go instead of someone taking the time to input the routes. I mean whoever did it, has to know what the waypoints are, what airway it is, where it goes, etc, etc....this really seems to me that it was either one of the two up front or somebody on the manifest that has flight experience.

You wouldn't need to use the FMC at first. Just enter a new heading in the Master Control Panel and switch from LNAV to Heading mode. Once on the new heading, enter the new route on the FMC, then switch back to LNAV. It's not really rocket science but you'd need a working knowledge of the autoflight system.

Quoting ksbd (Reply 284):
Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 277):
Service ceiling is 43,100 feet, according to several sources.

43,100 feet is still not 45,000 feet.

The service ceiling can be limited by different factors. On large airliners, it is typically based on minimum time for emergency descent, not on aerodynamic factors like stall buffet boundary. Plus there is a safety margin for either limitation.

In an case at the service ceiling, the airliner can by regulation still climb at a minimum of 100ft/minute, so by implication it can in practice go higher.

In other words, a 777 at light weights can probably go well higher than 43100 feet before reaching the absolute (aerodynamic) ceiling. How high would depend on weight and aerodynamic factors.

Quoting mymorningsong (Reply 324):

What is the duration of recording capacity for the cockpit. NBC Nightly News I just watched mentioned two hours, but that seems wrong.

Sounds about right for voice recording, though I think the regulatory minimum is lower. Flight data would be longer. At least 25 hours if memory serves.

[Edited 2014-03-14 19:31:57]

[Edited 2014-03-14 19:33:14]
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
Tangowhisky
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:33 am

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 320):
I'm reading it flew "erratically".

Only for a short while. See my Post 247, and read the NYT article.

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 320):
There is not zero evidence of malfunction, there is almost zero *communication*. That is very different.

The transponder went off 40 minutes into flight while at a constant reporting altitude at 35,000 feet
It went off at the transition between Malysian and Vietnam control (how coincidental.....)
Satellite pings for 4 hours were recorded on a constant airway
Those pings were over remote oceanic area where no primary radar exists (better to be undetected)

There is only 2 reasons why there was a loss of communication: deliberate, or aircraft failure. Which do you think is more likely?
Only the paranoid survive
 
LTC8K6
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:33 am

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 325):

ACARS would presumably transmit a cargo smoke detector alarm long before the fire got serious.
 
jcxroberts
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:34 am

That flyingwithfish guy on twitter mentioned lithium batteries in the cargo manifest days ago. Also that the x ray machine was down.
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:36 am

Quoting jcxroberts (Reply 329):
That flyingwithfish guy on twitter mentioned lithium batteries in the cargo manifest days ago. Also that the x ray machine was down.

Apparently it was the cargo of only MH370 that was not x-rayed... I remember reading that.
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jelliesR
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:38 am

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 328):
ACARS would presumably transmit a cargo smoke detector alarm long before the fire got serious.

Perhaps someone can verify that. "presumably" sounds like you don't actually know.

If there was smoke in the cargo hold or heat, does it ping this info back to base? or not. Perhaps not.
 
William60
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:38 am

Not sure if this has been covered, but I hear CNN panel experts point to
the skill required....the difficulty of landing the plane in the black of night.

With five hours of continued flight time now basically accepted as fact,
would it still have been pitch black well into a fifth hour?
 
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zeke
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:39 am

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 301):

I would love to see the NOTOC, Malaysia is one of the largest producers of batteries for personal electronic devices.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 314):

Cargo suppression systems are unless for battery fires.

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 317):

Two aircraft are known to have been brought down by properly packaged and transported batteries, the asiania and UPS 747 freighters.

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 320):

Primary radar paints need to be taken with a grain of salt at long range, atmospherics alone can give change of altitude.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
LTC8K6
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:41 am

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 331):
http://avherald.com/h?article=44062b99

Scroll down to see ACARS messages from this 747 cargo hold fire.
 
mymorningsong
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:41 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 326):

So if 2 hours is accurate, wouldn't that explain why they stayed aloft for so long. To delete prior conversations?
 
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N328KF
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:43 am

Quoting mymorningsong (Reply 335):
So if 2 hours is accurate, wouldn't that explain why they stayed aloft for so long. To delete prior conversations?

That thought had crossed my mind, but surely that would be ancillary.
“In the age of information, ignorance is a choice.”
-Donny Miller
 
jcxroberts
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:44 am

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 301):
It would also validate the oil rig witness.

If you read the oil rig witness letter carefully, he writes that the fire went out while the plane was still in the sky:

"From when I first saw the burning plane until the flames went out (still at high altitude) was 10 to 15 seconds"

He actually never describes that he saw the plane crash, he just assumes it in the initial sentence of the letter.

[Edited 2014-03-14 19:45:41]
 
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seat55a
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:45 am

Quoting jcxroberts (Reply 329):
That flyingwithfish guy on twitter mentioned lithium batteries in the cargo manifest days ago. Also that the x ray machine was down.

Well, is it an accidental fire, or was it something else that needed to not be x-rayed? He should pick a story and stick to it...

We are still at the point of too many facts and no filter for the essential ones.
 
Razza74
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:49 am

Ahh the joy of living under a flightpath
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:51 am

Quoting mymorningsong (Reply 335):

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 326):

So if 2 hours is accurate, wouldn't that explain why they stayed aloft for so long. To delete prior conversations?

You mean in a "life insurance" scenario? I suppose. But it is yet another unlikely scenario IMHO.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
undertheradar
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:52 am

Quoting William60 (Reply 332):

still dark after 5hrs....even if around 1hr flying east and 4hrs flying west....flying west actually 'gives' you more darkness..as this flight departed KUL 00:43 (just after midnight)
 
Tangowhisky
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:55 am

Quoting William60 (Reply 332):
Not sure if this has been covered, but I hear CNN panel experts point to
the skill required....the difficulty of landing the plane in the black of night.

We are talking about hijacking a very sophisticated airplane that has a very accurate inertial navigation system, and an autopilot that has various lateral and vertical modes. Couple all that with an FMS, and he can make a pretty OK landing on any flat area that is about 4000 feet long. That landing can be done without using satellite or ground based navigation aids to rely on. The airplane is pretty autonomous.
Only the paranoid survive
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:56 am

Quoting undertheradar (Reply 341):
still dark after 5hrs....even if around 1hr flying east and 4hrs flying west....flying west actually 'gives' you more darkness..

Correct.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 334):
Scroll down to see ACARS messages from this 747 cargo hold fire.

Well it did not take them long to find something: "First debris was found floating at position N33.2522 E125.0186 about 2 hours after communication with the aircraft was lost."

Quoting jcxroberts (Reply 337):
If you read the oil rig witness letter carefully, he writes that the fire went out while the plane was still in the sky:

"From when I first saw the burning plane until the flames went out (still at high altitude) was 10 to 15 seconds"

He actually never describes that he saw the plane crash, he just assumes it in the initial sentence of the letter.

Maybe it flew a lot farther East?
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
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Dalavia
Posts: 455
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2005 3:08 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:57 am

I am trying to make sense of the often conflicting information. Please allow me to advance something that tries to tie together the current state of information (or disinformation).

My current theory is that this was a high end smuggling operation

Evidence supporting this idea is that this plane's cargo was not x-rayed before departure; the only plane not to have its cargo x-rayed.

There is said to have been a large shipment of lithium batteries on board. Could the batteries be used to disguise or conceal something more sinister, like gas or bacteria?

Were they really standard batteries, or just shells of batteries containing something else? We don’t know, because they weren’t x-rayed.

If this idea is correct, then we have a motive that seems consistent with an inside job of pilot being involved and cooperating for a ton of money (and maybe involving the ground staff too)

It would also explain why the Americans are so keen to find the plane and its cargo before the smugglers (who might be terrorists or associated with terrorists) get hold of it

If this is true, it suggests a sophisticated level of planning – get a pilot involved, choose a flight that operates in darkness, avoid x-rays, and so on. It also suggests that whatever was loaded in the cargo bay that night was never intended to reach Beijing.

It seems wild but it also seems plausible, given what we know at the moment.

Whether the flight actually landed where it was supposed to land, or whether something went “wrong” and it crashed somewhere, is still the big question.

If the theory is correct, I guess security officials world-wide would prefer that it has crashed.

I should also add that if this was a smuggling job, it is possible (but of course not certain) that someone involved would have been a passenger on the flight, just to keep an eye on things.

[Edited 2014-03-14 19:58:16]

[Edited 2014-03-14 20:02:56]

[Edited 2014-03-14 20:31:10]
 
764
Posts: 507
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2001 6:34 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:57 am

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 342):
That landing can be done without using satellite or ground based navigation aids to rely on. The airplane is pretty autonomous

That's news to me..... and I work in the field of autonomous aircraft and computer vision. Afaik, you do need an approach guidance system to automatically land the 777.

[Edited 2014-03-14 19:58:20]
 
William60
Posts: 13
Joined: Thu Mar 13, 2014 10:58 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:58 am

Undertheradar,

Yes, the plane was heading away from sunrise, but I was counting
five hours after the "good night" from plane to tower...

Now I have to re-calc when the five hours actually begin...I might
be constructing the timeline incorrectly...

Razza...thanks for that chart!

[Edited 2014-03-14 20:02:01]
 
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Starlionblue
Posts: 20219
Joined: Fri Feb 27, 2004 9:54 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 3:00 am

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 342):

Quoting William60 (Reply 332):
Not sure if this has been covered, but I hear CNN panel experts point to
the skill required....the difficulty of landing the plane in the black of night.

We are talking about hijacking a very sophisticated airplane that has a very accurate inertial navigation system, and an autopilot that has various lateral and vertical modes. Couple all that with an FMS, and he can make a pretty OK landing on any flat area that is about 4000 feet long. That landing can be done without using satellite or ground based navigation aids to rely on. The airplane is pretty autonomous.

As 764 says, you can't autoland the plane without ground based equipment, specifically an ILS (Instrument Landing System) installation.

I suppose in theory you could punch in the runway heading and fiddle with the descent rate but without the flare and rollout guidance I wouldn't like to be on board. You d probably end up destroying the nose gear for starters. Probably more survivable if you hand fly with autothrust on, even for a person with no experience.

[Edited 2014-03-14 20:00:58]

[Edited 2014-03-14 20:02:15]
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
Tangowhisky
Posts: 667
Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:26 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 3:02 am

Quoting 764 (Reply 345):
That's news to me..... and I work in the field of autonomous aircraft and computer vision. Afaik, you do need an approach guidance system to automatically land the 777.

I never said autoland. The autopilot can bring the plane close enough to whatever lat / long and heading he needed to bring to (via FMS through IRS sensing), he can then take over at the last phase of the landing and plant it down.

The point is that if he was told to land the plane to some remote location. The automation will bring him pretty close to the final point.
Only the paranoid survive
 
Razza74
Posts: 123
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 12:17 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 3:02 am

If they departed at 00:41 and flew for 5 hours and ended up on the same parallel as the Andaman Islands that would be 05:41 and
http://www.timeanddate.com/worldcloc...=3&year=2014&obj=sun&afl=-11&day=1
showing sunrise for Port Blair on the 8th of March was 05:32 beginning of daylight starting maybe 1/2 hour before sunrise, darkness may not have been an issue

[Edited 2014-03-14 20:05:22]
Ahh the joy of living under a flightpath
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