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Starlionblue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 3:04 am

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 348):
Quoting 764 (Reply 345):
That's news to me..... and I work in the field of autonomous aircraft and computer vision. Afaik, you do need an approach guidance system to automatically land the 777.

I never said autoland. The autopilot can bring the plane close enough to whatever lat / long and heading he needed to bring to (via FMS through IRS sensing), he can then take over at the last phase of the landing and plant it down.

The point is that if he was told to land the plane to some remote location. The automation will bring him pretty close to the final point.

Fair point. But you still require a person with a relatively high level of piloting experience. Light prop experience helps of course but airliner power, speeds, and weights are a whole other kettle of fish.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
Tangowhisky
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 3:06 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 350):
Fair point. But you still require a person with a relatively high level of piloting experience. Light prop experience helps of course but airliner power, speeds, and weights are a whole other kettle of fish.

Sure, But in my view this was a B777 qualified pilot.
Only the paranoid survive
 
solarflyer22
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 3:06 am

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 317):
I'm familiar with lithium batteries shipped by air and they are often the larger ones for hobbyist use e.g. RC. But they could also be laptop batteries in bulk or anything else. All formulations would be risky.

Yes they are stable *if* they are manufactured properly and *if* they are packed properly and *if* not damaged in transit or loading or in flight. That is a lot of ifs and why they are difficult to ship by air now.

I would not want to fly in a passenger jet with commercial quantities of lithium batteries stored in the hold.

Once they start, they can't be stopped with fire suppression systems. They burn hot and contain their own oxygen. They burn until they use up the chemicals.

Nice post.

Assuming hostile intent, do you need specific knowledge of the 777 to silence its communications the way it appears to be done?
 
nm2582
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 3:08 am

Quoting btfarrwm (Reply 306):
I think it's more likely that the Chinese government blew the plane out of the skies to avoid another potential 9/11 rather than this elaborate scheme.

Quite the conspiracy theory, but if the Chinese had solid info that it did in fact need to be blown up, and they did so, and had a very somber and serious meeting with top US officials....

...then it might very well be a great cover up for both sides to tussle, each side having a preferred theory or put out (mis)information, while the real cleanup happens in a place that nobody is talking about.

I'm not much of a believer in conspiracy theories, though.
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 3:11 am

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 352):
Assuming hostile intent, do you need specific knowledge of the 777 to silence its communications the way it appears to be done?

Only for one of the three items. The other two would be trivial for any pilot, even without airliner experience.

You can probably find the EE breaker panel diagrams online. In any case not very difficult information to dig up.

- Transponder. Turn the rotary selector to "STBY".
- Radios. Don't transmit.
- Satcom. Pull the breaker in the EE bay.

[Edited 2014-03-14 20:14:05]

[Edited 2014-03-14 20:14:56]

[Edited 2014-03-14 20:15:17]
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 3:17 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 354):
- Satcom. Pull the breaker in the EE bay.

Can you confirm where the EE bay hatch is? I read before it was located in the forward galley, which would make it more difficult unless the hijackers had the front of the plane secure. If the hatch is in the cockpit then it's a different story. Also, wouldn't it be hard to locate the correct breaker in the EE bay, even with all the info available online?

[Edited 2014-03-14 20:21:24]
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764
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 3:17 am

Hmm, lithium batteries, something happened right after a turn, electronic malfunctions (transponders etc.), drowsy or incapacitated pilots, fire in the sky near the oil rig, pinging until much later.... This actually would make perfect sense (if you discount the entire turning back west theory):

Here's my theory:

- Some of the cargo shifted during the right turn at IGARI. This does happen when cargo is insufficiently balanced or secured. It has by itself led to crashes.

- Some (maybe as little as one) battery was damages and caught fire. This releases gaseous Hydroflouric Acid which is not only very corrosive, but also noxious and can act as a neurotoxin. This may have disabled the pilots. The fire may have grown quite slowly as it was eating at the other batteries' shells.

- The fire may by itself - or via corrosion - have disabled electronics including transponder antannae.

- Meanwhile the aircraft continued on the programmed course.

- Burning aircraft was observed from an oil rig. It is possible that by this time jet fuel might have been burning as well. This does not need to be an explosive burn.

- Fire was either extinguished or ran out of fuel.

- The aircraft - or its remains - may have fallen right there or continued on course until fuel ran out or until the systems failed completely.

- Debris might be found anywhere in the South China Sea, possibly not too far away from Hong Kong....

Just a thought, but it seems plausible to me.
 
ivanoruvan
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 3:17 am

It's very difficult to approach this mystery on many theories. Why not take one at a time and stop where we have no further ideas. I'm sure many of you agree that it could be an accident.

Let's consider the odds of an accident and see how far we can go. Let me put my hypothetical helmet on and ask a few questions. Pardon me if my questions are naive. It's because I'm simply ignorant on these technical topics.

So the transpoder failed first. After pilot's last communication with the statement 'Good Night'. Let's consider the comm systems failed at this point. Will the Pilot immediately know it failed? Will he know the transponder failed? If the answer is 'No' or 'he may not have noticed', he would have continued with this journey. Since the plane turned, we assume something is wrong and he wanted to return. Now, I have no idea how it's decided to take a left turn or right turn normally. But he turned west. Assuming he wanted to return to the source, can he immediately descend and try to land or he should travel some distance before he can descend?

Either way, we know the flight descent was 'by 3000 ft'. So he switched from cruising altitude to descent. Now, if the flight has only communication problems, he would have circled the area or he would have tried to make a forced landing/ditching as he could not communicate his intentions. The fact that he didn't circle or crash in the immediate vicinty, suggests that he left the area.

Does this mean, the auto-pilot failed to dis-engage after he turned? What are the odds of that? Or could it be a scenario where he couldn't control flight speed / altitude at this point? In the former situation, can he over-ride auto-pilot mechanically and control at least the direction? If so, he would have circled again, hoping he gets some assistance from ground sooner or later. He wouldn't have gone towards the ocean, right? If he had absolutely no control over the speed, direction & altitude, then the plane would have simply gone the distance, stalled & crashed.

I think it's relatively easy to calculate the max distance (for various altitudes) and check for debris, right? If crash is the hypothesis, that's what I would do if I were part of SAR. Start from the calculated boundary first and between south & south-west.

My question to you is, are there ways to overcome the above hypothesis? What exactly are the guidelines the pilot should follow in such cases?
 
764
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 3:20 am

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 348):
I never said autoland. The autopilot can bring the plane close enough to whatever lat / long and heading he needed to bring to (via FMS through IRS sensing), he can then take over at the last phase of the landing and plant it down.

The point is that if he was told to land the plane to some remote location. The automation will bring him pretty close to the final point.

OK, now it makes sense to me. Sorry for the confusion.

If he did land manually at a remote location, he would have needed daylight though.....
 
PHX Flyer
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 3:21 am

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 301):
attempts to save plane including via oxygen starvation.

Oxygen starvation yes, but not to put out a fire. Rather to kill the passengers and uninvolved crew. Always assuming that what we have learned about data transmissions form the aircraft and other facts is true, the only way to reconcile everything into one plausible story is to assume that this was a deliberate act with the intent to take the aircraft - for what reason remains to be seen, but I am convinced we will find out in due time.
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Starlionblue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 3:23 am

Quoting ivanoruvan (Reply 357):
So the transpoder failed first. After pilot's last communication with the statement 'Good Night'. Let's consider the comm systems failed at this point. Will the Pilot immediately know it failed? Will he know the transponder failed? If the answer is 'No' or 'he may not have noticed', he would have continued with this journey.

I'm thinking he'd get an error message on the screens if the transponder failed.

Quoting ivanoruvan (Reply 357):
Either way, we know the flight descent was 'by 3000 ft'. So he switched from cruising altitude to descent. Now, if the flight has only communication problems, he would have circled the area or he would have tried to make a forced landing/ditching as he could not communicate his intentions. The fact that he didn't circle or crash in the immediate vicinty, suggests that he left the area.

Actually I'm not sure we know they descended 3000ft.

Anyway if there was a comms problem the crew wouldn't never have opted to circle. Plenty of fuel to fly to an airport so either return to KUL or divert to SGN just to name two options. Why circle over the ocean when you can go to a nice big runway?

Quoting ivanoruvan (Reply 357):
Does this mean, the auto-pilot failed to dis-engage after he turned? What are the odds of that? Or could it be a scenario where he couldn't control flight speed / altitude at this point? In the former situation, can he over-ride auto-pilot mechanically and control at least the direction? I

If the auto-pilot fails to disengage (an astronomically unlikely occurrence), you can pull the circuit breaker. That cuts power to the autopilot. Problem solved.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
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RyanairGuru
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 3:24 am

Quoting Razza74 (Reply 349):

Maybe I missed it, but did you take into account that Port Blair is 2.5 hours behind KUL? If the aircraft disappeared at 00:40 GMT+8 and flew for 5 hours, that would be 05:40 in KUL but only 03:10 local.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
William60
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 3:28 am

764,

That was why I raised sunrise as an issue...just seemed like the CNN
panel was quick to assume darkness prevailed.

I'm still not certain it did.

And under a scenario of hostile takeover without suicide, sick-joyriding
or localized terror as the end game...then I wonder what those
five extra hours were really all about.

Seems like a lot of planning and effort to not have a purpose and
one in which the perps survive.

I'm not in the camp of fire or mechanical issues any longer.

[Edited 2014-03-14 20:30:50]
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 3:48 am

Quoting William60 (Reply 362):
That was why I raised sunrise as an issue...just seemed like the CNN
panel was quick to assume darkness prevailed.

I'm still not certain it did.

And under a scenario of hostile takeover without suicide, sick-joyriding
or localized terror as the end game...then I wonder what those
five extra hours were really all about.

Seems like a lot of planning and effort to not have a purpose and
one in which the perps survive.

I'm not in the camp of fire or mechanical issues any longer.

If it was suicide with the intention of never being found, I think it would make sense to fly as far West as possible to one of the most remote parts of the Indian Ocean before crashing the plane into the water in the dark. If it was taken, then sunrise becomes more important to consider depending on a) the skill of whoever is flying and has to land the plane, b) where the plane is going to land, and c) remaining undetected.
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bajamatic
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 3:52 am

I'm starting to feel like it's suicide as well. This guy was a real aviation buff. Who knows what kind of demons he had as well, but regardless, based on what I've read, he's the kind of guy who would have liked to go down in the history books of aviation. One would hope he might strive to acheive this in a different fashion, but it's hard to deny with what we know that he definitely would appreciate a chapter. Maybe this is how he chose to get it?

Nothing but speculation. 1 fact. 7 days. Wow.
 
ivanoruvan
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:00 am

Thank you Starlionblue. So, we can say, theoretically, any problem with the aircraft (unless hypoxia/absence of pilots or complete loss of control), the plane would not have left the area. Am I correct?

If we take the first one, I don't think hypoxia happens in a second. It'll take a while and crew might have had some time to respond (whether they know they are going into hypoxia or not). If they know about loss of oxygen, they would have reduced the altitude and continue to address the problem they were facing before. Even if they didn't, they anyway turned (assuming they tried to return/land). The descent would have solved the hypoxia problem, right? Unless there was no descent at all and it was not their intention to do so.

That leaves us, only one situation. Complete loss of control. If not, we can assume, this is where all other theories start.

1. Absence of pilots - physically in the cockpit or intentionally with the controls (they were just sitting back with suicidal intentions).

2. Hijacking - Whether by pilots or a passenger. Assuming passengers, the pilot bravely tried to take the plane away as far as he could go, so he can avert another 9/11.

In both cases, I'm sure the pilot cannot be suspected. Psychologically, a person with suicidal intentions will definitely leave a message. At least to his loved ones if not to the world. We have no leads on this.

If Pilot is suspected with the hijacking, a first time hijacker cannot be this perfect. And there's no way in the world he can handle this alone without support from a group/nation.

It's far easy to do a background check on the pilot. His psychological or social activities in the recent past will tell something. Remember, we are not talking about an expert terrorist but a first timer according to the facts we have. So there would be indications about a major change.

And this is where I'll definitely conclude "It's just an accident". Nothing more, nothing less.

@ Experts: Don't BS me. It's just one of the many angles we could think.
 
William60
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:00 am

Bajamatic,

They're discussing motives as a key right now.

Rational people naturally want to know about motives.

The sad thing is, so much ugly occurs every day without
a motive that makes sense.

IOW, if this really is a hostile takeover, and kidnapping, and
possibly murder, the motive is going to move the needle on the
sick and twisted meter, no matter what it is.

Extreme selfishness and chilling disregard for others is almost
always apparent, though.

There's no good reason for this.
 
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YNGguins
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:01 am

What I thought all along... This just came out on Twitter at 11:55pm/ET:
"@FoxNews: BREAKING: Malaysian official says investigators conclude missing jet was hijacked, steered off-course, AP reports"

After not finding this thing within the first 18 hours, I immediately thought it landed somewhere, anywhere, in a remote location, where it remains today.

Praying for those on board that airplane.
I am PROUD to live in the greatest country on earth: The United States of America!
 
tim73
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:04 am

Somebody in NYtimes comments mentioned that the way the plane supposedly behaved, sudden altitude changes, would be like a passenger without any pilot background trying desperately to fly the plane.

So my questions are: How hard it would be to fly this plane and how hard it would be to try to use the radio to contact somebody? Could a passenger keep it flying 4-5 hours at night?

[Edited 2014-03-14 21:06:08]
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:06 am

Quoting ivanoruvan (Reply 365):

Thank you Starlionblue. So, we can say, theoretically, any problem with the aircraft (unless hypoxia/absence of pilots or complete loss of control), the plane would not have left the area. Am I correct?

That depends what you mean by area. If there was a problem, the pilots would have attempted to fly towards an airport, or at least some land mass. Just staying on course would have been a good start, They certainly wouldn't have loitered over the sea. However there would be no reason to fly further than KUL, SIN or SGN.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
William60
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:08 am

Tim,

I think the erratic behaviour speaks to a struggle of some kind, a bout of nerves
after takeover, or both.

I have heard experts say that flying the plane, keeping it level, etc, is not that difficult.

It's takeoffs and landings that are incredibly demanding, skill-wise.

[Edited 2014-03-14 21:12:48]
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:12 am

Quoting tim73 (Reply 368):
Somebody in NYtimes comments mentioned that the way the plane supposedly behaved, sudden altitude changes, would be like a passenger without any pilot background trying desperately to fly the plane.

So my questions are: How hard it would be to fly this plane and how hard it would be to try to use the radio to contact somebody? Could a passenger keep it flying 4-5 hours at night?

With no help from outside, it would be extremely hard, probably impossibly hard, for someone with no piloting background to fly manually.

However if we assume that everything on the plane is working, the autoflight system is engaged and this hypothetical person can contact someone on the ground, landing it somewhere would be relatively simple as long as our guy can follow instructions.

Contacting someone on the radio is somewhat intuitive. Don the headset and pushing the radio button on either yoke to speak. I think there's also a transmit button on the radio itself. No need to change frequencies since you are "on freak".

If we assume that the autoflight system was off, and a pax or F/A took manual control, it would most likely have rapidly ended in disaster.

[Edited 2014-03-14 21:18:23]
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
mandala499
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:12 am

Quoting tim73 (Reply 368):

Somebody in NYtimes comments mentioned that the way the plane supposedly behaved, sudden altitude changes, would be like a passenger without any pilot background trying desperately to fly the plane.

Since it's now in the open, I must admit... I received this information on saturday morning from my source in KL. It has everyone stumped. If the airplane flew erratically, the defence guys watching it on radar would probably just went... "What the heck?"
But, again, is that really MH370?
I'll add that I was also told FL230 and FL450 specifically. And also that speed was erratic, radar track ground speed at times estimated at 600 knots. What I was not told was where it went...
If this is MH370... I don't think someone was flying the aircraft...
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
764
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:13 am

Sorry, but my mind is still stuck on a technical problem / fire. Look at the antenna locations. If something were to happen in the front cargo bay (like a cargo (battery) fire), it could easily damage/destroy quite a few of them. Satcom would be unaffected. The front bay would also be quite close to the flight deck, increasing the chance that fumes might make their way up there.

 
shortstack81
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:14 am

Quoting YNGguins (Reply 367):

The Associated Press is the only one reporting this, quoting a single unnamed official.
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:18 am

Quoting William60 (Reply 370):
I have heard experts say that flying the plane, keeping it level, etc, is not that difficult.


I would say those experts are incorrect in their assessment.

It would not be difficult for a pilot. For a person with no experience and with no instructor? Forget it.

It takes a surprising amount of flying hours before straight and level flight becomes second nature. And that's in a light aircraft. It sounds easy but the aircraft is continually moving about. Granted, the 777 has auto-trim which would make things easier, but on the other hand it is heavy so it has lots of inertia you have to take into account. You have to be careful not to overcompensate.

There's also the fact that this is at night so there are no visual cues. A pilot has to rely on instruments. This, also, takes many hours of experience before it becomes second nature.

On the other hand, if a person has light plane experience, it goes almost impossible to "hard work but very doable".

Quoting William60 (Reply 370):
It's takeoffs and landings that are incredibly demanding, skill-wise.

Mostly landings, but yes those are the harder bits. So if a person with no experience can't even stay straight and level, forget the landing. It takes many landings before your final approaches start having a good feel to them.

[Edited 2014-03-14 21:19:56]
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
boacvc10
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:19 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 372):
Since it's now in the open, I must admit... I received this information on saturday morning from my source in KL. It has everyone stumped. If the airplane flew erratically, the defence guys watching it on radar would probably just went... "What the heck?"
But, again, is that really MH370?
I'll add that I was also told FL230 and FL450 specifically. And also that speed was erratic, radar track ground speed at times estimated at 600 knots. What I was not told was where it went...
If this is MH370... I don't think someone was flying the aircraft...

I appreciate the fact that you held information in confidence, wild as it may be. Is there a different possibility than piracy, suicide, murder etc. ? Could the cockpit section have suffered a catastrophic structural failure and the pilots incapacitated?
Up, up and Away!
 
William60
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:23 am

Starlionblue,

I should have mentioned that some training or experience would be necessary,
and I believe the panel made mention of this.

My bad.
 
tim73
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:23 am

My theory is that something hit the cockpit window (meteroid one in millions chance but still possible) and caused it to shatter. The pilots tried to descent, turn and change the transponder code to emergency but accidentally knocked it to standby. Just before they passed out, they managed to set the plane to autopilot.

The autopilot then tried for 4-5 hours to maintain altitude, direction and speed but the cockpit being damaged and air rushing in, it could only partially compensate before fuel running out somewhere above Indian ocean. The crew and passengers were long dead before hitting the water.

[Edited 2014-03-14 21:25:48]
 
shortstack81
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:26 am

Quoting tim73 (Reply 378):
Quoting tim73 (Reply 378):
The autopilot then tried for 4-5 hours to maintain altitude, direction and speed but the cockpit being damaged and air rushing in, it could only partially compensate before fuel running out somewhere above Indian ocean. The crew and passengers were long dead before hitting the water.

this is my theory too. it even got close enough to the oil rigger that he saw whatever flashed but then headed over the horizon.
 
SeeTheWorld
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:27 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 372):
Since it's now in the open, I must admit... I received this information on saturday morning from my source in KL. It has everyone stumped. If the airplane flew erratically, the defence guys watching it on radar would probably just went... "What the heck?"
But, again, is that really MH370?
I'll add that I was also told FL230 and FL450 specifically. And also that speed was erratic, radar track ground speed at times estimated at 600 knots. What I was not told was where it went...
If this is MH370... I don't think someone was flying the aircraft...

You're the smartest guy here ... i think i know what it looks like ... what do you think it looks like ...
 
btfarrwm
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:29 am

Quoting nm2582 (Reply 353):
Quite the conspiracy theory, but if the Chinese had solid info that it did in fact need to be blown up, and they did so, and had a very somber and serious meeting with top US officials....

I should clarify... I don't believe either theory, but one is slightly less fantastic than the other.
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:30 am

Quoting tim73 (Reply 378):

My theory is that something hit the cockpit window (meteroid one in millions chance but still possible) and caused it to shatter. The pilots tried to descent, turn and change the transponder code to emergency but accidentally knocked it to standby. Just before they passed out, they managed to set the plane to autopilot.

The autopilot then tried for 4-5 hours to maintain altitude, direction and speed but the cockpit being damaged and air rushing in, it could only partially compensate before fuel running out somewhere above Indian ocean. The crew and passengers were long dead before hitting the water.


This theory has a nice ring to it, but there's unfortunately one big hole. To set the emergency code you'd enter 7700 using the keyboard. To turn it off you'd use the rotary selector. It is implausible that they would confuse the two, or even knock the transponder to standby.

Quoting William60 (Reply 377):
Starlionblue,

I should have mentioned that some training or experience would be necessary,
and I believe the panel made mention of this.

My bad.

No worries! 

I'd note that just having flown lots of MS Flight Sim is not enough. From personal experience I can tell you it helps once you get into a real airplane, but it does not prepare you at all for the feel of hand flying.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
chrisrad
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:30 am

Malaysia confirms Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 was hijacked

A MALAYSIAN government official says investigators have concluded that one of the pilots or someone else with flying experience hijacked the missing Malaysia Airlines jet.
The claim comes after seven days of fruitless searches for Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, and after revelations suggesting the plane made several course corrections after the cockpit’s last known contact with air traffic control.
The official, who is involved in the investigation, told the Associated Press no motive has been established, and it is not yet clear where the plane was taken. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to brief the media.
The official said that hijacking was no longer a theory. “It is conclusive,’’ he added.
The Malaysian prime minister is expected to brief the media later today.

http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel...acked/story-fnizu68q-1226855485378
Welcome aboard Malaysia Airlines! Winner of Best Cabin Staff 2001,2002,2003,2004,2007,2009,2012
 
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jetfuel
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:30 am

KUALA LUMPUR - The last satellite transmission from a Malaysian airliner missing for a week has been traced to the Indian Ocean off Australia

http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking...d-be-traced-sea-australia-20140315
Where's the passion gone out of the airline industry? The smell of jetfuel and the romance of taking a flight....
 
Razza74
Posts: 123
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:31 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 361):
Maybe I missed it, but did you take into account that Port Blair is 2.5 hours behind KUL? If the aircraft disappeared at 00:40 GMT 8 and flew for 5 hours, that would be 05:40 in KUL but only 03:10 local.

Yes I forgot about a wee small thing called timezones
Ahh the joy of living under a flightpath
 
Dreamflight767
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:32 am

What about the "Tech Crew"? I believe there were 2 on board. What is their role, where do they sit during these trips, do they have access to the cockpit/jump-seat, how much knowledge of the aircraft/systems do they know or have?
 
panampaul
Posts: 229
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:32 am

I haven't tried to read all 380 posts in this thread but it sounds like more people are moving to a "hijacking" theory versus anything else at the moment.

It's just odd that no one has claimed responsibility, unless it failed of course.

Malaysian Official: Missing Plane Was Hijacked

Quote:
One week after a Malaysia Airlines jet with 12 crew members and 227 passengers from 15 countries went missing, officials are now saying that they the aircraft was indeed hijacked....
 
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SuseJ772
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:32 am

Quoting tim73 (Reply 378):
My theory is that something hit the cockpit window (meteroid one in millions chance but still possible) and caused it to shatter. The pilots tried to descent, turn and change the transponder code to emergency but accidentally knocked it to standby. Just before they passed out, they managed to set it to autopilot.

That's an interesting one. I have always thought about what would happen if something caused a huge crack in the windshield which left both pilots incapacitated either by death or by blindness. Hadn't heard that theory yet with this. It would explain something. It might also explain a Flight Attendant trying to fly the plane. if they were on bottled oxygen.


Another quick question for Starlionblue or Mandela. Manually landing a plane at night is difficult. Now I will admit that in my PPL experience, finding the airport at night is difficult and it boggles my mind that the FAA considers it "VFR" flight. But I don't really see it that much more difficult of a landing, once the airport is spotted, and I am not that good of a pilot. So is there something about flying the larger planes at night that makes it harder to hand fly a landing that I don't know about?
Currently at PIE, requesting FWA >> >>
 
ivanoruvan
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:33 am

Quoting tim73 (Reply 378):
My theory is that something hit the cockpit window (meteroid one in millions chance but still possible) and caused it to shatter.

But at that speed and altitude, it would have ripped the cockpit apart giving the pilots no chance to react, right? Even if they had time, why turn? Why not just descend and address the situation? Physically I think it's easier to descend than turn.
 
indcwby
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:33 am

http://www.chron.com/news/crime/arti...ght-hijacked-5316629.php?cmpid=bna

Malaysian: Investigators conclude flight hijacked

So now there goes the meteorite or mech theories......
A319, A320, A330, A340, B717, B727, B737, B747, B757, B767, B777, CRJ7, DC10, MD88, MD11, E145, E175
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bermudatriangle
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:34 am

Most of the leaks so far from the US press have turned out to be correct, in spite of great skepticism by many here on the forums and elsewhere (including, apparently, the Malaysian and Chinese govs). So I think we would be correct to treat them as credible by and large going forward.

To me (very interested observer but no piloting experience), it would seem the rollercoaster ride from 45k to 23k to a 29.5k cruise is consistent with the pilot hijacking the aircraft, depressurizing and ensuring that passengers are deprived of oxygen and also unable to secure footing to move about the cabin and react. Then he returns to fuel efficient cruising altitude but below the paths of other aircraft.

Then we have the waypoints that he apparently flew, perhaps leaving a trail of breadcrumbs for investigators if he is a devious serial killer about to take his own life?

Finally there is the engine data indicating a 40k foot plunge in one minute, which to me seems consistent with the pilot putting the plane nose down and firing the engines (would be roughly 450mph down to the sea from 40k feet in one minute). The question is was that the last datapt from the engines (obviously if not, it can't be right).

Taking all we know into account, I think this was either a sophisticated terrorist plot or a really twisted serial killer, masterminded either way by the captain or FO. It's really hard to see how a fire or other accidental even could trigger a 5 hour sequence of events with so many coincidental elements. We are bending facts around a narrative if trying to paint this as an accident.
 
nm2582
Posts: 177
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:35 am

I find it interesting that they have no new evidence - they have merely decided that the evidence they have conclusively proves that the flight was hijacked.

That seems premature to me.
 
CO953
Posts: 523
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2013 4:05 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:36 am

Quoting JimJupiter (Reply 13):
CO953

A belated thank you for responding to my query: (whether the anonymous pilot's story about being asked to reach MH370 -- and hearing "mumbling" and "static" in return -- had truly been debunked, and the alleged debunking sourced and linked.

I've been working and just now saw your reply at COMMENT #13 of this thread. I would like to copy and paste it but can't make it happen..... so regarding the info in your COMMENT #13:

Several posters have also been saying that the story was false. The info you gave was nicely thorough, and thank you for providing it..

But to continue our prior discussion: Unless I missed it, I still did not see in your article an exact source for the supposed denial/debunking. The article makes the statement in summary fashion, but does not quote any name or office behind the debunking of the "mumbling/static" transmission claim by the anonymous, purported pilot.

I don't aspire to come across as a nitpicker; I am just really trying to cross off hypoxic mumbling from my list. I am wondering whether the editor who originally allowed the story fact-checked the reporter before publisjing the story, as all editors are, theoretically, supposed to do on a regular, spot-check basis in a tradiaitional newsroom/bureau? I need to try to find what day the claim surfaced, and in what media outlet.

I sure would like to see a link in e-print to some printed or video official rejection of the "mumbling/static" story told by the anonymous pilot. It was at a news conference?

Due to the accepted historical links between hypoxia, oxygen masks, confusion, and mechanically or neurologically muffled cockpit voice broadcasts, the widely reported "mumbling" last contact could prove a crucial clue, if substantiated... to try to rule in or rule out a Helios-type decompression scenario.

I certainly hope that investigators have thoroughly interviewed the reporter regarding the credibility of his source, and I hope that the reporter does some serious thinking about the balance between shielding his/her source and verifying a potentially important clue.

[Edited 2014-03-14 21:37:24]

[Edited 2014-03-14 21:38:33]
 
FltAdmiralRitt
Posts: 83
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2013 7:57 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:37 am

Quoting 764 (Reply 373):
Sorry, but my mind is still stuck on a technical problem / fire. Look at the antenna locations. If something were to happen in the front cargo bay (like a cargo (battery) fire), it could easily damage/destroy quite a few of them. Satcom would be unaffected. The front bay would also be quite close to the flight deck, increasing the chance that fumes might make their way up there.

Yes, this fire incident near the comm systems is the best non-agent theory.
and I dont think someone untrained could have the flown the plane in dark for 2 hours
Controll would have been lost fairly quickly. maybe the fire caused the AUTO pilot to
misbehave at times.

While much of the aircraft is fire resitant, it is not made of inflamable materials.
with enough heat, just about anything can light up, although the burning would be slower in 7777
than unrated flamable materials typically say in a home.
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:38 am

Quoting nm2582 (Reply 392):
I find it interesting that they have no new evidence - they have merely decided that the evidence they have conclusively proves that the flight was hijacked.

That seems premature to me.

I'm sure they know more than us... not in a conspiracy theory sense, but just in general. People in the know seem to know more. They must be pretty sure to say it with such certainty...
 
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SuseJ772
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:38 am

Quoting indcwby (Reply 390):
Malaysian: Investigators conclude flight hijacked

While this (in part) supports my earlier theories, I question the conclusiveness of this statement. Why? Just because they were tired of answering questions. I admit everything leans towards that. But I hardly say it is conclusive at this point based on what has been shared. I mean other than the CVR, how do the know conclusively it was that.
Currently at PIE, requesting FWA >> >>
 
ivanoruvan
Posts: 16
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 10:04 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:39 am

Quoting indcwby (Reply 390):

http://www.chron.com/news/crime/arti...ght-hijacked-5316629.php?cmpid=bna

Malaysian: Investigators conclude flight hijacked

So, they did do some background checks and hit the nail somewhere. Or at least they think they do. Interesting to know what lead they got. Any of the crew's or passenger's?
 
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Starlionblue
Posts: 20219
Joined: Fri Feb 27, 2004 9:54 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:39 am

Quoting dreamflight767 (Reply 386):

What about the "Tech Crew"? I believe there were 2 on board. What is their role, where do they sit during these trips, do they have access to the cockpit/jump-seat, how much knowledge of the aircraft/systems do they know or have?

Not sure but I think they meant the flight crew when they said "tech crew".

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 388):
Another quick question for Starlionblue or Mandela. Manually landing a plane at night is difficult. Now I will admit that in my PPL experience, finding the airport at night is difficult and it boggles my mind that the FAA considers it "VFR" flight. But I don't really see it that much more difficult of a landing, once the airport is spotted, and I am not that good of a pilot. So is there something about flying the larger planes at night that makes it harder to hand fly a landing that I don't know about?

I hear you on finding the bloody airport! 

It is more difficult for a few reasons:
- Much harder to judge speed and height based on visual cues or engine sound.
- Higher speeds and weights mean you need to be further "ahead of the airplane".
- Bigger spaces needed.

Then again for an experienced pilot should not be a huge issue if they can see the runway. Airliner crews land at night all the time.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
SeeTheWorld
Posts: 1090
Joined: Sat Dec 31, 2005 2:46 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24

Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:39 am

Quoting nm2582 (Reply 392):
I find it interesting that they have no new evidence - they have merely decided that the evidence they have conclusively proves that the flight was hijacked.

That seems premature to me.

I'm afraid it is their way of gradually moving us to the suicide/homicide theory ...
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