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socalgeo
Posts: 408
Joined: Tue Mar 11, 2014 3:56 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:03 am

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 74):
All you need to do is use the borders the PM said - he specifically laid out the far reaches it could have made it to. It was a lot further than the circle you drew.

OK, I added a 3000 mile buffer and a 3500 mile buffer for 6 and 7 hours flight time at 500 mph...





Map:http://sandbox.maps.arcgis.com/apps/OnePane/basicviewer/index.html?appid=95cbede59b3e471eb14b52c362966934

SoCalGeo
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:04 am

Quoting k83713 (Reply 92):

Although I already stated it shouldn't be possible if the entire flight control system and warnings systems were hacked things like cabin air pressure monitoring, oxygen systems, ventilation, temperature control, autopilot, digital instruments, and any indicator controlled digitally (not sure how extensive on the 777) could be faked to trick pilots into thinking they are doing the right thing. If the transponder is networked and hacked the code displayed on the indicator may not be correct or it might not even be enabled even if the knob is not on standby.

Just like any industrial control system, real time controller, or safety critical system hacking it is totally unpredictable. They could use the warnings, navigation data, and displays to make the pilots think there is trouble disable the transponder without it looking disabled, make them think they are turning back correctly and steer them in the wrong way.

That extensive level of hacking isn't possible given what I understand about the 777 and I'm sure the suppliers of the equipment know how serious it would be if someone managed to hack their digital controllers. (It would however require immense resources to pull off cleanly)

Physical hijacking is many many orders of magnitude more likely than some total system security compromise.
 
k83713
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:05 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 82):

There were reports the plane landed but then they were denied. If indeed it landed somewhere in the middle after lost contact and 8:11 am, that would explain how it made that distance. Of course, then you need to explain, where it landed and who covered that
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:07 am

Quoting Indy (Reply 98):
Someone managed to hack the point of sale terminals at Target. Sometimes it is hard to imagine the things a hacker would do to take control of something which makes it difficult at times for IT people to defend against. The IT guys just cannot think of every possible angle. Without knowing how the systems work in an airplane I cannot say for sure, but it is possible the systems were compromised a long time ago and the hackers behind this only recently put the plan into action. The system could have been compromised by a mechanic with access to the plane or maybe someone with access to a critical part before it ever made it on the plane. Just bringing up ways a system could have been compromised. Again I have no idea how it would even begin to work with systems on a plane.

There is a huge and I mean huge difference between target and an Airplane flight control system. The point of sales terminals by their very operation need to be online and connected to the business network. Even external contractors have access to them and they run on typical PC hardware and process valuable credit card data which can be stolen and used without people noticing for some time and not typically considered as bad as killing people.

As long as the airgap between flight control network and data network was maintained it would be almost impossible to take over the plane. Taking over a PoS terminal took some smart kid to write some malware, taking over a flight control system cleanly would require a lot more work.
 
axio
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:08 am

Northern Thailand to the Caspian Sea contains a couple of countries that don't always make the international Christmas card list... It does then make one wonder what about an origin of KUL was compelling.

I also don't quite understand how both tracks are in play. Surely the satellites being hit late in the flight would indicate which path is more likely.
Time for a new viewing deck at AKL!
 
JimJupiter
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:11 am

Quoting nm2582 (Reply 89):
the border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan

So, that's the most distant point they think it might have gone to?

It wasn't detected by the air surveillance of India, Pakistan, Afghanistan (US), Iran? Wow, hard to believe.
One is born, one runs up bills, one dies.
 
Indy
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:12 am

Quoting tomlee (Reply 103):
As long as the airgap between flight control network and data network was maintained it would be almost impossible to take over the plane. Taking over a PoS terminal took some smart kid to write some malware, taking over a flight control system cleanly would require a lot more work.

Never discount the skill and determination of a hacker. But you said it yourself. "almost impossible" I think the skill needed to attack Target the way the hackers did is much more advanced than you think. If it were that easy it would be happening all the time. Credit card companies get hacked and information stolen. Even the FBI has had their systems hacked. Who knows how much money was stolen from Target. Recently there was a massive Bitcoin heist that was somewhere in the area of 9 figures I believe. With the kind of money that is being stolen these days I seriously doubt time and effort is a concern. Get the most skilled hackers in the world and give them some hardware to experiment with and they will find a way in. They live and breathe it just as much as people on here live and breathe aviation.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
jelliesR
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:13 am

Quoting axio (Reply 104):
I also don't quite understand how both tracks are in play

I guess that the satellite gets sent data for optimising reception given the position of the plane, and either/or track, north or south, would send the same data up in the keep alive -- due to the particular configuration of the antennas etc. Like there are two possible inputs (heading north west, heading south east) to the equation that produce the same uplink output.
 
chaseus1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:13 am

Quoting JimJupiter (Reply 105):
So, that's the most distant point they think it might have gone to?

It wasn't detected by the air surveillance of India, Pakistan, Afghanistan (US), Iran? Wow, hard to believe.


Maybe that makes the Southern route more viable....
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:14 am

Quoting JimJupiter (Reply 105):

It probably crashed into the water somewhere around there as it is quite possible the last satcom keep alive message was the literal last message before impact. What they need to do which is something they haven't confirmed is use other countries radar data to correlate with the sat modem position estimates to narrow it down to at least one of the two possible paths as it currently is a huge area if you consider the plane to be somewhere between the two path's extremes.
 
tim73
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:16 am

I assume, they got signal to noise level numbers from pings, then figured out the satellite position and drew a coverage map. Then found out two paths with similar predicted signal to noise figures within that coverage map.

[Edited 2014-03-15 00:16:38]
 
Enobar
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:17 am

Ok, so I have a theory and I rather hope its easily de-bunked because I think its terrifying. I will admit straight up that its unlikely, but I am wondering how possible this scenario is;

1) Can the transponder be spoofed to indicate that it is a different plane?

If so...

What if at some stage in the future, perpetrators of this pull off a similar event, only this time they down the plane without ATC being aware. At the same time they bring back this plane from MH370, now loaded with a bomb and spoofing the new missing plane's transponder code. They can then check in with ATC as expected, fly the route right into a populated area without raising suspicion before detonating their payload.

A lot would have to go right for them.. but a lot had to go right for them on 9/11 too and yet it happened.
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:17 am

I checked the figures. Both Airbus and Boeing state that the difference between Max Range Cruise and Long Range Cruise is an increased fuel burn of 1%, giving an increased speed of 3-4%.

Quoting aviators99 (Reply 93):
Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 91):
Range would decrease dramatically.

Turbofans are most efficient at high power settings. Normal cruise speed is termed "Long Range Cruise" and is only a few percent from max range cruise with regards to fuel burn and range.

Thanks. But I assume that I am correct that endurance would be greatly increased? If so, it is possible that even if the plane was only loaded with enough fuel to get to PEK, at low power it could have flown for 7 more hours.

There is a "max endurance" figure. For a jet this would be the speed which gives the maximum Lift to Drag (L/D) ratio. I'm not certain how much lower this is than LRC or MRC but I doubt you could eke out more than an hour or so more. I may be wrong.

In any case max endurance is only really useful for loitering or things like all engine out glides away from an airport so you get more time to relight.

[Edited 2014-03-15 00:35:30]

[Edited 2014-03-15 00:36:12]
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
slinky09
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:18 am

Quoting axio (Reply 104):

Northern Thailand to the Caspian Sea contains a couple of countries that don't always make the international Christmas card list... It does then make one wonder what about an origin of KUL was compelling.

Yes, let's say you wanted to avoid Indian ATC, that would mean potentially flying over Myanmar, Bangladseh, Nepal, even Tibet, to some of the break away USSR states and yes even Afghanistan. Alternatively into China itself.

And if they were landing at 8:07 Malaysia local it would likely still be dark if it did land somewhere else.

Many people have referenced Tom Clancy novels, but really that's now not far off. I wonder again from a post a long while ago:

1) Who?
2) Why?
3) What next?
 
nm2582
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:20 am

I'm not buying the water crash stories anymore.

It's clear that far too much effort/investment was put into MH370 to just crash it into the ocean.

There was a purpose. The plane itself, the people on board, or the cargo it carried.
 
koruman
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:20 am

Two things.

Firstly, 99.9% of hijackings throughout history did not involve the hijackers flying the airplane, but rather forcing the flight crew to do so. Please don't assume that 9/11 is the standard MO.

Secondly, go back 7 days and 5 hours and you have initial reports that the airplane landed at Nanning in China.

If the airplane reached the Gulf of Thailand, was hijacked and then turned west, crossed Malaysia and went out over the Andaman Sea, it could have flown towards the Chinese-controlled Great Coco island (or Burma) and then been directed over Burma to a western approach to Nanning, without overflying Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam or other countries.

From the point of view of both a hijacker and the Chinese government, such an approach presumably allows far more secrecy than an approach over half the Asian bloc. Burma, of course, is a strategic partner of China, to use a polite euphemism.

I'm not suggesting that the Chinese government in any way conspired to take the jet. Simply that if it was hijacked and demands were made of the Chinese from the Andaman Sea - presumably demands to land in western China or Tibet - there is a strong chance that they would instead come up with a pretext to route it to an air force base in southern China as opposed to western China, with a view to storming it.

Have there been any satellite pictures of a large twin being scrapped at a southern Chinese air base this week? Isn't that what we'd expect to see if a bungled SWAT mission had resulted in mass casulaties?

[Edited 2014-03-15 00:22:47]
 
k83713
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:22 am

Quoting chaseus1 (Reply 108):
Maybe that makes the Southern route more viable....

Same here, southern route makes more sense if we discard serious cover-ups. Also there were a lot of claims that authorities believe the plane has crashed eventually. Crash that no one detected more likely to happen in the bottom of Indian ocean than in mainland China. How did investigators or sources support the idea that the plane finally crashed, based on what? Any versions?

[Edited 2014-03-15 00:24:34]

[Edited 2014-03-15 00:25:10]

[Edited 2014-03-15 00:25:59]
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:25 am

Quoting Indy (Reply 106):
Never discount the skill and determination of a hacker. But you said it yourself. "almost impossible" I think the skill needed to attack Target the way the hackers did is much more advanced than you think. If it were that easy it would be happening all the time. Credit card companies get hacked and information stolen. Even the FBI has had their systems hacked. Who knows how much money was stolen from Target. Recently there was a massive Bitcoin heist that was somewhere in the area of 9 figures I believe. With the kind of money that is being stolen these days I seriously doubt time and effort is a concern. Get the most skilled hackers in the world and give them some hardware to experiment with and they will find a way in. They live and breathe it just as much as people on here live and breathe aviation.

To jump an airgap (physical security measure) they would have to bridge it physically. From what I understand about the 777 flight control system there isn't a bi-directional control channel physically to the off plane data network. Because of the way the flight system is designed you can't just plug two ethernet cables in or swap something around and bypass the airgap.

Almost impossible is the 99.9996% level of certainty because I'm not an actual expert so I don't know if there is a good air gap or a pseudo software (hackable) one. It doesn't matter how advanced a hacker is unless they totally own the hardware (replaced everything with network connected ones, hence breaking the airgap) it would be almost impossible to hack the system remotely. (Not to mention the amount of work that it would require to slip in working but vulnerable hardware would require not just a good hacker but a national level of effort to pull off with a high chance of being discovered and extreme consequences if discovered) It is basically a far fetched conspiracy theory to say it could be hacked in the manner your suggesting.

Data breaches are common just look at the news each year. You can pretty much assume your identity has been stolen. Business networks are so tightly interconnected and involve countless people to keep them running, every terminal, back office server, tech workstation, person involved is a weakpoint in the network security. Compared to a plane's flight control system which shouldn't even have a network connection to the world it would be basically impossible to compromise short of replacing everything with pre-compromised equipment without being discovered.

The bitcoin hack was trivial they didn't patch a bug everyone knew about for years and never double checked their own accounting system. (Compared to target's hack the mt. gox hack was smart but also played into the total incompetence of the company for years)
 
nm2582
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:26 am

Quoting nm2582 (Reply 114):
There was a purpose. The plane itself, the people on board, or the cargo it carried.

And given the rumors about the cargo escaping inspection, I tend to think it was the cargo.

The plane isn't particularly special. Yes it has long range and airlift abilities, but so do other aircraft available along the northern corridor (which could be accessed much more discretely than stealing a public airliner with 200+ people on board). The southern corridor just doesn't make sense to me.

The people on board - sure, there were some freescale employees, maybe some expertise that could be useful to someone...but the risk to reward ratio seems too high here. People can be obtained in other far more discrete ways.

The cargo...well, if you wanted something really badly, then the plane and the people are disposable and you can't just fly any old aircraft into Malaysia and pick it up due to increased scrutiny - so you steal the outbound aircraft.

I'm not much of a conspiracy theorist, but....
 
trex8
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:27 am

MH 777 suddenly pitching up several thousand feet, dropping from attempt at recovery by pilot and then climbing several thousand again while speed fluctuates significantly!
Didnt we hear this once before? Like 9 years ago? Thought B had fixed the software on those Honeywell ADIRUs!
Why isn't a similar type of problem a possibility for the unusual activity this time?
 
nm2582
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:30 am

Quoting trex8 (Reply 119):
MH 777 suddenly pitching up several thousand feet, dropping from attempt at recovery by pilot and then climbing several thousand again while speed fluctuates significantly!
Didnt we hear this once before? Like 9 years ago? Thought B had fixed the software on those Honeywell ADIRUs!
Why isn't a similar type of problem a possibility for the unusual activity this time?

The press conference didn't confirm any of this, so it's possible that it never happened. Many of the stories to leak have eventually been proven false...
 
nm2582
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:33 am

For those not following the "flyingwithfish" twitter feed (twitter.com/flyingwithfish...some really interesting stuff being posted up.

Here is his guess, which he says could be wrong but which he claims works out with miles and time in the air based on info from his "sources":



[Edited 2014-03-15 00:34:51]

[Edited 2014-03-15 00:35:26]
 
slinky09
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:35 am

Quoting nm2582 (Reply 120):
The press conference didn't confirm any of this, so it's possible that it never happened. Many of the stories to leak have eventually been proven false...

And additionally the PM said that the NTSB, FAA and AAIB from the UK, plus their own authorities, analysed the available data independently and presumably in parallel and all came to the same conclusion ... obviously a lot is going on in the background!

I'm guessing some security services are either very on edge, or know a lot more than we do. I'd be looking at things like missing jet fuel shipments at the moment, for example!

[Edited 2014-03-15 00:36:24]
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:37 am

Quoting trex8 (Reply 119):
MH 777 suddenly pitching up several thousand feet, dropping from attempt at recovery by pilot and then climbing several thousand again while speed fluctuates significantly!Didnt we hear this once before? Like 9 years ago? Thought B had fixed the software on those Honeywell ADIRUs!Why isn't a similar type of problem a possibility for the unusual activity this time?

Without any communication? And then went on to fly for hours? Maybe I'm missing something?

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
PHX Flyer
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:37 am

Quoting nm2582 (Reply 118):
And given the rumors about the cargo escaping inspection, I tend to think it was the cargo.

What type of cargo would be worth the lives of over 230 people? This doesn't make sense to me.
"Once you have tasted flight, you will walk the earth with your eyes forever skyward, for there you have been and there you long to return." -Leonardo Da Vinci
 
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Dalavia
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:39 am

Quoting nm2582 (Reply 121):

If correct, this might be truly intriguing.

Flying with Fish is suggesting Esfahan as the destination.

I visited Esfahan a couple of years ago. For those who don't know, Iran's nuclear facilities are located just beyond the outskirts of Esfahan.
 
CaliAtenza
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:40 am

Quoting nm2582 (Reply 121):

For those not following the "flyingwithfish" twitter feed (twitter.com/flyingwithfish...some really interesting stuff being posted up.

Here is his guess, which he says could be wrong but which he claims works out with miles and time in the air based on info from his "sources":

he also says his "sources" know how the plane could get across India. How it could get across Pakistan and THEN Afghanistan which is bristling with US forces???; i dunno....
 
slinky09
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:40 am

Quoting nm2582 (Reply 121):
For those not following the "flyingwithfish" twitter feed (twitter.com/flyingwithfish...some really interesting stuff being posted up.

Whoever he is, he's not been far off with he tweets so far, and mentions Esfahan airport in Pakistan ...
 
fn1001
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:41 am

Maybe there are already negociatitions between the kidnappers and the chinese and malay government. This would includ some very positve news, the passengers and crew are alive. Negociations are very sensitive, when hostages are involved, maybe this would explain the chaotic informatin policy we expected during the last days. On the other hand, how cold the aircraft make it to the Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan border without being noticed by the indian defense?

Lets pray for a positive end of this really crazy story!
Mai bine să-ţi fie rău decît să-ţi pară rău.
 
nm2582
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:43 am

Quoting PHX Flyer (Reply 124):
What type of cargo would be worth the lives of over 230 people? This doesn't make sense to me.

I suppose that depends on how much of a conspiracy theory you're willing to believe, and how much the people involved value human life, and how much they valued the cargo. Sadly, the value of human life isn't constant among all peoples of the world.

In the extreme, there are people who would gladly kill 10x this amount if it meant they could gain control of an atomic device.
 
JimJupiter
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:43 am

Quoting koruman (Reply 115):
Secondly, go back 7 days and 5 hours and you have initial reports that the airplane landed at Nanning in China.

Reports...?

Quote:
Perhaps the most damaging rumor came shortly after the jet, which was carrying 239 people from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, was reported missing Saturday local time: A story spread mainly on Chinese social media that the craft had made a safe emergency landing in Nanning, China.

One Twitter user posted that he had "some inside news from a pilot uncle that #MH370 has emergency landed somewhere in China! Hope everyone is safe."

The rumors picked up steam, with some local Malaysian media outlets publishing similar stories. Both Malaysian Airlines officials and the Chinese government later said the safe landing rumors were false.
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/mis...-false-reports-safe-landing-n48081
One is born, one runs up bills, one dies.
 
slinky09
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:44 am

Quoting CaliAtenza (Reply 126):
he also says his "sources" know how the plane could get across India. How it could get across Pakistan and THEN Afghanistan which is bristling with US forces???; i dunno....

If the plane was hijacked, then while we've been wondering about the reason for that, such as cargo, people, to use as a weapon, we haven't surmised much about whether the hijack is for hostages for another purpose such as the release of prisoners. This is something that has happened before.

Big IF but if that was known then perhaps authorities allowed the plane to overfly and not shoot it down, as negotiations had already begun.

There is much more going on here than has been released.
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:46 am

Quoting Dalavia (Reply 125):
I visited Esfahan a couple of years ago. For those who don't know, Iran's nuclear facilities are located just beyond the outskirts of Esfahan.

....crap....

On a sidenote, those two Iranians traveling on stolen passports either cleverly pulled off an incredible heist or were the two unluckiest political-asylum-seekers Iran has ever seen.

***IF*** the above possibility were true.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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EVAAIRBR076
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:47 am

Well and what about the last signal that was picked up 1600km before the australian westcoast? That is a complete different search area. It get stranger and weirder everyday.
 
koruman
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:54 am

If a flight between two peaceful countries without political unrest goes missing, then it is reasonable to consider hijacking for political reasons to be unlikely.

But the origin of this flight was a country which had just imprisoned the main opposition politician for sodomy.

And the destination was a country with separatist movements in both Tibet and the Moslem west of the country.

In that context, to concentrate on theft of freight is as bizarre as is the idea that a UFO stole the aircraft and carried it off into space.

Just ask yourself two simple questions:

1) If it was hijacked and overflew Malaysia, then turned a second time over the Malacca strait back towards Kuala Lumpur and the Petronas Towers, what would you expect the Malaysian government to do? Shoot it down? And would they own up to it afterwards?

2) If it was hijacked over the Gulf of Thailand by Uighur separatists, and flown northwest in silence towards western China, it would cross back over Malaya and then fly east of the Andaman islands, at which point we might assume that contact would be made with Chinese air traffic control from the vicinity of Great Coco Island, which they control. What would the Chinese then do?

I presume that they would tell them that no airports in Xinjiang are open overnight and that they need to fly over Burma to land in southern China, where their demands will be considered or fulfilled. I would expect that they would then try to storm it as quickly as possible after landing while they still had secrecy, which of course would mean using a local SWAT team rather than a national elite unit, and switching off local mobile phone towers from the time the aircraft was on approach to the end of the mission.

It's one thing for the Singaporeans to use their elite forces at their main airport to storm SQ117, without casualties. They could probably assemble that team in 60 minutes.

It's a totally different situation for the Chinese to try to use local troops at a remote air base before any of the passengers get a mobile phone signal and secrecy is lost. They would quickly realise that they don't even have the right size ramp stairs for the aircraft. A rushed assault would be a botched assault.

A bungled rescue mission would explain how mobile phones continued to ring. It would explain why China sent Search and Rescue towards the Gulf of Thailand for a week as the evidence was removed. The airplane would presumably be scrapped quickly and I don't even want to think what would happen to any survivors if the government was intent on "saving face" by concealing a military failure.

It's just a theory. But it is a simple one, and I find it far more compelling than the alternatives now that foul play is identified as having taken place.

[Edited 2014-03-15 01:04:26]
 
chaseus1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:56 am

Quoting EVAAIRBR076 (Reply 133):

Well and what about the last signal that was picked up 1600km before the australian westcoast? That is a complete different search area. It get stranger and weirder everyday.

I think each signal had a corresponding north and south possibility that would work with the formulas to determine location.
 
LandSweetLand
Posts: 185
Joined: Sat Mar 08, 2014 10:47 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:56 am

Quoting nm2582 (Reply 129):
In the extreme, there are people who would gladly kill 10x this amount if it meant they could gain control of an atomic device.

If they're going to set off a nuke, then I'd expect the death toll to be well above that anyway, and there are plenty of upcoming chances this year. Just two major international ones are the cricket world cup and the soccer/football world cup. A nuke going off in a 100,000+ football stadium would definitely be the biggest terrorist action in a long time.
Not saying this would happen, but definitely agreeing with you in that depending on what they're after (if there is a they, and they are in fact after something), the human cargo might be just another speed bump.
 
345tas
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:56 am

Quoting Dalavia (Reply 125):
I visited Esfahan a couple of years ago. For those who don't know, Iran's nuclear facilities are located just beyond the outskirts of Esfahan.

Iran doesn't have just one nuclear facility, it has many across the country. One of them is Natanz, located about half an hour's/hour's drive from Isfahan: https://www.google.com.au/maps/place/Natanz+Uranium+Enrichment+Facility/@33.7265169,51.7271948,328683m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m2!3m1!1s0x3f9641766bc26177:0x73be8627a51d5cc

Although I don't see how it's totally relevant. If the theory is turning the plane into a dirty bomb or the like, they could load nuclear equipment anywhere. Also, who is suspected of carrying this out? The Iranian Quds Force? I doubt they'd ever get sanction from Khamenei in the current political environment. Al Qaeda? Well they are about as welcome in Iran as rabies.

Also, two nearby countries, India and Pakistan, actually have nuclear weapons capability, Iran does not.

There are two points with the 'steal aircraft for later use' theory that I see as difficult to understand that mainly involve logic:
1. The passengers. Even if hijackers have no qualms about killing them, how would they do so? I'm presuming that KUL security is not so terrible (it certainly isn't to my experience) that a group of pax or crew could sneak on a large number of guns etc that would be necessary to carry that out. I think if the hijackers were the pilots, it would be possible to kill the pax before landing, no? Still, I find their presence a huge unnecessary obstacle to someone's plan.
2. Just putting myself in the shoes of whoever is deliberately flying the plane off course for nefarious purposes. I wouldn't believe that in 2014 I could just scoot about on a 772 across SE Asia without being detected. While we are now seeing that Malaysia's air defence system is a horrible joke, unless the hijackers (for want of a better word) knew that to be the case, could they really? believe they'd get away with it?

[Edited 2014-03-15 01:03:20]
 
cc2314
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:57 am

Has anyone given much thought to the air asia ceo tweet that stated the aircraft landed in naning china?
Deleted
 
k83713
Posts: 160
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:58 am

This all comes out to be a very, very big story. The amount of organization to make it look so messing and confusing, but still so few traces are left, proves it's really something very professional. And after all that "strange behaviour" the plane is still transmitting after 7 hours into the emergency.
Seems we also should leave behind usual approach, it's not stereotypical/encountered before/prepared for based on experience.
 
dampfnudel
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:58 am

I'm going to sleep now and I wonder what the news will be when I wake up. It's really getting crazy.
A313 332 343 B703 712 722 732 73G 738 739 741 742 744 752 762 76E 764 772 AT5 CR9 D10 DHH DHT F27 GRM L10 M83 TU5
 
Backseater
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:59 am

Probable explanation of the two corridors.

It appears they have two positioning solutions: one in the northern hemisphere and one in the southern hemisphere, at equal distance from the geostationary satellite that is over the equator.

Such dual solutions occur when you measure differences in round trip delays or time of arrival (TOA) in which case you have to look for the crossing points of two circles or two hyperbolas, one crossing to the north of the equator and one to the south.

In our case, I am guessing that they have been able to collect TOAs from not just the Inmarsat satellite that was the intended destination of the hourly check messages (pings) but from additional assets in orbit capable of monitoring L-band transmissions and re-transmitting them to some earth stations. That would fit with Inmarsat's statement that they have done a "classified" analysis of the data.

Position resolution will depend on timing accuracy in estimating the absolute TOAs in orbit. Just a microsecond will yield an error of hundreds of kms in the ground position, depending upon the geometry, mostly the orbital spacing between spaceborne receivers.
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 8:00 am

Quoting koruman (Reply 134):

Given this being #1 world news for over a week, I find it highly unlikely that the plane landing in China or any else state could be kept secret. There would be tens of people at a very minimum who would have knowledge on it.
 
JimJupiter
Posts: 347
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 8:00 am

Quoting cc2314 (Reply 138):
Has anyone given much thought to the air asia ceo tweet that stated the aircraft landed in naning china?

He probably just tweeted along with chinese "social media" rumors.
One is born, one runs up bills, one dies.
 
ivanoruvan
Posts: 16
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 8:02 am

Guys, Guys, Guys.... Let's forget technology for the moment. Obviously it hasn't helped so far. Let's turn the attention to people. If the latest developments were true, they have had some strong lead on the ground.

Start with a simple question. Who filled the fuel and how much? How big is an effort to manipulate/hide the fact the fuel filled was way more than required? Or how easy is it to over-fuel?

Won't the guy responsible would have fled the scene by now if he's involved in a terror plot? Does anybody have sources/contacts in the Malaysian airport? Any arrests were made? Any investigation happened on the fuel topic?

If no such thing happened, then I agree with many others that it's an international conspiracy/cover-up.

Come on, how big is an effort to check the background of 239 passengers? Why are we talking about the pilots and iranians only?

By the way, I don't doubt N.Korea's hand here as China and N.Korea are buddies. It has to be together or neither.

I'm a bit surprised that China remains very calm over this crisis. Not the China I've known. I suspect they are doing a lot more behind the scenes.
 
BA777
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 8:02 am

It would be interesting to know the final fuel load, there would be a legal minimum as we know and if they took significantly more that could be a clue. The plane may have a range but obviously it doesn't always take maximum fuel on a flight shorter than its capabilities.
 
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MillwallSean
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 8:04 am

Quoting slinky09 (Reply 127):
Whoever he is, he's not been far off with he tweets so far, and mentions Esfahan airport in Pakistan ...

Well its great if the plane flew to Iran. is there any place on earth with so much satellite resources focused on itself as Iran?
And if its close to the nuclear facilities, its even better. There saltellites must have 24/7 coverage of the comings and goings. perfect.

While theoretically it might be possible to reach Iran, I struggle to see a case for why Iran would ever allow this. So far Iran has behaved rather logical on the worldstage and being a few steps away from being bombed as it is and having invested a fair bit of effort into being integrated into the world of commerce again, Iran should abandon this and hijack a MH airline. That seems as likely as the previous alien concepts,
In short it would surprise me alot if this plane was found in Iran or for that sake Pakistan.

Hijack doesnt mean that another person comes either. "Illegally seize (an aircraft, ship, or vehicle) while in transit and force it to go to a different destination or use it for one’s own purposes:"
Thus makes full sense for one of the pilots to hijack a plane and use it for his purpose.

With the latest positions I also feel that this airline is going right into the indian ocean and not to China, Iran or Pakistan.

Im very sure most intelligence communities is working overtime on cargo manifest and passenger lists right now. however the simplest solution in all this is still a pilot doing this for some reason.
No One Likes Us - We Dont Care.
 
COOEE
Posts: 17
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 8:05 am

Dear Forum

Has anyone considered flight MH-370 suffered the same fate as Cypriot Helios Airways flight 522 or the golfer Payne Stewart's Lear 35. MH-370 would be flying at - above 25,000ft ? if the plane never pressurised, or there was a slow leak. it would take be less than 5 to 10 minutes before everyone began severe hypoxia.

The reported auto ping data and the heading waypoints to me suggest this area – ( attached above ) – in fact I used lines the distance of Beijing, but the 777 would have had more fuel to continue for another 40 minutes to an hour flying. If the course changes were due to irrational decisions over heading back to KL before hypoxia caused unconsciousness then It could have kept flying for any hours. The only oddity is the decision to switch off the transponder.


These were my first thoughts.. or questions I pondered

Is there any cockpit warning in modern aircraft on low oxygen levels? A sudden decompression would trigger oxygen masks, but what about a slow leak? How long would it take for everyone to loose consciousness? The cabin would have settled down after feeding, probably most would have gone to sleep especially at such a late time. But would the crew notice anything unusual on low oxygen. You can get quite irrational in your decision making before you pass out. surely people have different tolerances here, and notice other becoming confused ahead of themselves? Could hypoxia account for the transponders being switched off, and the change of course. it would imply switching off the autopilot.

I then google trailed to these 2 items relating to both Helios Airways flight 522
http://www.airlinesafety.com/letters/Helios737Crash.htm
and Payne Stewart's Lear 35
http://www.avweb.com/news/aeromed/181893-1.html


Regards – sorry for the speculation – but no one media wise has connected yet on this possibility.

My heart really goes out to all the poor families awaiting news and closure.

Regards to all those involved and following the news
 
koruman
Posts: 2179
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2006 9:08 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 8:06 am

Quoting cc2314 (Reply 138):
Has anyone given much thought to the air asia ceo tweet that stated the aircraft landed in naning china?

See 115 and 134 above. It is now a highly significant incident in this matter.
 
chaseus1
Posts: 77
Joined: Thu Mar 13, 2014 8:46 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 8:07 am

Reference the measuring of the pings....I believe it is simple triangulation in getting opposite locations.

The plane is one point, the satellite a second point, and two opposite points would give you the same angles and distances in a triangle.. just opposite directions.

Simple geometry. Only those two points would give you certain like signal strengths

[Edited 2014-03-15 01:08:34]
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