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Thunderboltdrgn
Posts: 2234
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:48 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 191):

The Indian Navy has not said much, the have a good radar facility at Port Blair.
Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 196):
Apparently they also have one on mainland facing Bay of Bengal with max range of 500NM, a modified Israeli Super Green Pine, interestingly used for missile interceptor testing.

Though I read (probably in article linked from an a.net thread) that the Indian radars at
The Andamans and Nicobars might not have been active.
Like a thunderbolt of lightning the Dragon roars across the sky. Il Drago Ruggente
 
airlineecon
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:49 pm

Is it safe to assume the investigators knows exactly how much fuel was loaded on the plane? Otherwise, it might be possible to guess based on length of take off roll, rate of ascent? I know some on here have compared flight tracks to those for MH370 on other days. If I recall many threads back, somebody mentioned the ascent seemed slower than usual.
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:53 pm

Quoting Razza74 (Reply 197):
Piggybacking KLM836 across Asia would enable MH370 remain undetected

Somebody else said that it would have to be very, very close. So close that any unexpected moves might result in a collision. Also, it was mentioned that when the two planes eventually separated that one blip would become two and some radar operator might pick it up. But yes, the piggyback scenario is interesting...
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snowjob
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:57 pm

Something about the latest CNN reporting is bothering me.

I can't seem to wrap my head around 'pilot intervention' as Barbara Star was reporting in the last hour (quoting unnamed US intelligence officials).

I understand that the logic as it pertains to the knowledge of com systems, electrical systems, navigation routes, and flying the airplane....but either (1) both pilots would need to be involved, or (2) one pilot would need to be completely incapacitated AND the entire cabin crew and pax would theoretically be either oblivious to this, and/or not have made one attempt to communicate with the outside world as the plane flew for hours upon hours upon hours on many different headings....with no attempt to intervene if they felt something was amiss compare to a normal flight.

Am I missing something here?
 
hivue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:00 am

Pardon me for posting again, but what happened to the supposed EHM data that, according to the NYT article, RR got from the plane after it made its ascent to 45,000 ft. Presumeably it would have been sent via ACARS. But now we apparently know that ACARS was shut down before the plane went feet wet after departure. The Malaysian PM sounded to me like he was only talking about keep alive signals when he spoke of communications with the satellite. But if the engine data was actually sent it couldn't have gone via ACARS. Was there data other than just keep alive signals passed from the plane to the satellite?
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
747-600X
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:02 am

I agree with Snowjob; even if the pilots purposefully flew the thing off into the middle of the night, surely some passenger at some point would have said, "This seems a bit fishy" and tried to make a phone call. . .
 
jelliesR
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:03 am

nothing precludes the possibility it was just circling - outside radar range but on the satellite track.
right?
in fact as the distance to satellite was constant that sounds more likely than a curved flight path.
 
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SuseJ772
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:05 am

Quoting jcxroberts (Reply 199):
I wonder if they know what was in cargo.

They havne't made that known. Many of us have been wondering the same thing and curious why they haven't released it. Even a statement of, "we checked the cargo manifest and nothing looked suspicious. We had luggage, laptops, and fish." The silence is interesting.

Quoting airlineecon (Reply 201):
Is it safe to assume the investigators knows exactly how much fuel was loaded on the plane?

I don't think that is safe to assume. Especially since they haven't made it public. That's another one many of us have been asking and no one seems to be answering. It would definitely add to the range question, as well as the intentions of the pilot.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 202):
Somebody else said that it would have to be very, very close. So close that any unexpected moves might result in a collision

And someone else said that it wouldn't really have to be that close, so I am not really sure who to believe. When you think about the size of the sky and the size of those screens, it make sense that a couple hundred feet would get married into one. Say one at FL30 and one at 29,500 a couple of hundred feet behind. Not saying I believe it, but it isn't interesting.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 202):
Also, it was mentioned that when the two planes eventually separated that one blip would become two and some radar operator might pick it up.

The theory goes that when they did separate, it was in an airspace that was expecting them. China, Iran, Kazakhstan. Again, not saying I believe it, just that is what the theory was.
Currently at PIE, requesting FWA >> >>
 
SeeTheWorld
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:06 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 187):
I'd also like to know how well this flight crew knew each other? If the pilots hadn't worked together then yes, maybe someone did take his place (it's way too easy to get quality fake ID in that part of the world) but I would assume that at least one crew member might have met him before. I was thinking that if the two plots had worked together before maybe they had issues - you might have a well experienced, by the book career Captain with an arrogant young FO, half his age and who we know has family connections and has been on a flight when cockpit rules were broken. This might have been the time that some issues were resolved by one of them.

This is the only new interesting theory in the past 24 hours .... Maybe the Captain snapped and ....

Quoting Snowjob (Reply 203):
Am I missing something here?

Yes, there are many possibilities to conclude that would be reasonable ...
 
edmountain
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:06 am

Quoting 747-600X (Reply 205):

I agree with Snowjob; even if the pilots purposefully flew the thing off into the middle of the night, surely some passenger at some point would have said, "This seems a bit fishy" and tried to make a phone call. . .

Agree too. Perhaps this lends weight to the southern track over the Indian Ocean?
 
billreid
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:06 am

Is it possible that an erroneous/false flight plan was filed with Indian ATC.
What if they were looking for MH370, and another flight called in giving a false flight number. It flies exactly the correct flight plan but doesn't ID as MH370, is this possible.

Can an airplane falsify its Flight number if it's totally not where it's supposed to be?
Some people don't get it. Business is about making MONEY!
 
edmountain
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:09 am

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 206):
nothing precludes the possibility it was just circling - outside radar range but on the satellite track.
right?
in fact as the distance to satellite was constant that sounds more likely than a curved flight path.

I don't think the tracks are thought to be flight paths. Rather, the aircraft was felt to be at some point along the arcs at the moment of its last contact with a satellite.
 
undertheradar
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:12 am

Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 182):

yes, it is very unsettling...and it really highlights how 'fractured' / 'flawed' communications and cooperation are between various 'authorities', countries and airspace...in our (human) desire to be able to 'move (relatively) freely' around the globe, it eventually uncovers the 'gaps' / inadequacies of the 'systems / technologies we all rely on to give us that 'sense of security'.. (by no means do I mean to belittle this event.. I cant begin to imagine the pain / frustrations the families / friends of the 'lost' are going through... and in amongst the 27parts, and counting, of 'theories', 'comments', 'jokes' on this forum...let us not lose sight of that)
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:13 am

Quoting hivue (Reply 204):
Pardon me for posting again, but what happened to the supposed EHM data that, according to the NYT article, RR got from the plane after it made its ascent to 45,000 ft. Presumeably it would have been sent via ACARS. But now we apparently know that ACARS was shut down before the plane went feet wet after departure.

It's possible that only VHF ACARS was disabled. Since the pilots would know that MH does not subscribe to SATCOM, they may not have known that EHM messages would be sent by SATCOM to RR regardless.

Without that flight of fancy though, the truth is, the facts that ACARS was disabled and the EHM transmissions went out after are at odds with each other.

[Edited 2014-03-15 17:13:59]
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:16 am

Quoting SeeTheWorld (Reply 208):
Quoting 777Jet (Reply 187):
I'd also like to know how well this flight crew knew each other? If the pilots hadn't worked together then yes, maybe someone did take his place (it's way too easy to get quality fake ID in that part of the world) but I would assume that at least one crew member might have met him before. I was thinking that if the two plots had worked together before maybe they had issues - you might have a well experienced, by the book career Captain with an arrogant young FO, half his age and who we know has family connections and has been on a flight when cockpit rules were broken. This might have been the time that some issues were resolved by one of them.

This is the only new interesting theory in the past 24 hours .... Maybe the Captain snapped and ....

He might have snapped! Was his rant on FB (also his last FB post) about the political situation in Malaysia confirmed as actually being from him? If so, he could be the type that doesn't like people like the FO - with family in high places, who do what they like and possibly have things handed to them. After all the Captain seems like somebody who has devoted his entire life to aviation and getting to where his is and there is somebody half his age sitting next to him who has a different attitude. Just a theory...

However, if the FO took it, he might have planned to do it with this Captain as his crew member for the flight. Maybe he knew that the Captain would be the focus of attention with his flight sim (which, for the record, I don't think is unusual at all for an aviation geek).

I'm just curious about the history between the Captain and FO...

[Edited 2014-03-15 17:18:47]
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hivue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:16 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 213):

Thanks. I suppose that's possible. But it doesn't quite add up to me. The PM's press conference sounded pretty open and comprehensive, but I wonder if it really was.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:19 am

Quoting billreid (Reply 210):
Is it possible that an erroneous/false flight plan was filed with Indian ATC.
What if they were looking for MH370, and another flight called in giving a false flight number. It flies exactly the correct flight plan but doesn't ID as MH370, is this possible.

Can an airplane falsify its Flight number if it's totally not where it's supposed to be?

Too my knowledge the pilots can give their flight any letter/number combination
they desire but the planes hex code would still be the same and that hex code would
have identified the plane as the one we're looking for.

http://www.kloth.net/radio/icao-id.php
http://www.kloth.net/radio/icao24lookup.php
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviatio...rogation_modes#ICAO_24-bit_address

[Edited 2014-03-15 17:24:11]
Like a thunderbolt of lightning the Dragon roars across the sky. Il Drago Ruggente
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:21 am

Quoting hivue (Reply 215):
Thanks. I suppose that's possible. But it doesn't quite add up to me. The PM's press conference sounded pretty open and comprehensive, but I wonder if it really was.

I tried asking this sort of question before, but no one really understood what I was asking, basically -

How do they *know* ACARS was disabled while they were still outbound on the east coast? It's a strange statement to make so definitively. SATCOM is used for potentially a lot of stuff so maybe their modem stays powered and connected even if ACARS over SATCOM is disabled, but why maintain connection to the SITA AIRCOM VHF ground stations since they are only used for ACARS, if that downlink was disabled for ACARS? So they may have said it was disabled or turned off because the a/c dropped connection with SITA g/s while well within range (still on SSR, still over land, well within SITA g/s range).

Or maybe the PM mis-spoke. In his extremely exact prepared statement. And didn't correct it. Hmm.

I think they know something we don't know.

[Edited 2014-03-15 17:23:36]
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
cpw
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:22 am

Quoting PHX Flyer (Reply 107):
I am quite sure the U.S. is doing this already - quietly. It's in the the nature of secret service agencies to work discretely, without drawing attention to what they are doing. It would not be helpful at all if the US government "hijacked" the investigation.

This. As I said in a post yesterday, this is a criminal investigation and I think people are crazy to think that every piece of information would be released by investigators. The people who need to know likely do know much more than they're releasing to the media. Why let the bad guys know that they're on to them? In some ways, it wouldn't surprise me if the red arcs in the maps released yesterday were a red herring. Ruses are a standard law enforcement tactic.

Does anyone know any more about the group from the technology company? I thought I had read that they were heading to a trade show or conference of some type. If so, perhaps they were traveling with a prototype of a gizmo of interest to a government?

That being said, many of the theories that point to specific actions based on a specific set of circumstances would require way too many things to align. The right pilot had to be flying the right plane on the right route. This was planned way too well, and variables would cause logistical nightmares - especially if they were relying on groups to mobilize at a remote airport in a remote country to accept an incoming flight.

Does anyone know how far in advance a pilot knows they are going to fly a particular route?
 
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enilria
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:25 am

Quoting jcxroberts (Reply 199):

he latest theory seems to be Malaysian Islamists according to the telegraph:
Quoting pvjin (Reply 120):
If terrorists were behind this they would've most definitely used the plane already for whatever purposes they wanted to use it. Waiting would only increase risks.
Quoting rcair1 (Reply 135):
Presuming the pilot did hijack the a/c - nothing he did would have required training beyond what he already had as a very experienced 777 pilot. In other words - he does not need a fancy flight simulator.

OK, this is what is scaring me. My theory...

One of the pilots hijacked the plane as I don't see how anybody else got into the cockpit so quickly after takeoff, plus the point at which the plane disappeared was masterful...right at the handoff. That couldn't have been planned if it wasn't a pilot. The captain also had a lot of sim equipment to practice how to avoid detection. I fear that he ascended to 45,000 feet and disabled the oxygen system knocking out or killing all the passengers. Then he descended to reduce the radar pickup. He probably didn't think about the satellite ping as MH wasn't subscribing to the service. Then he seemingly headed to Afghanistan or similar place. This was extremely well-planned. At this point I'd be shocked if this plane crashed. Way too much prep to purposefully crash a plane.

If that is what happened there is a BIG problem. That plane is basically a long range kamikaze cruise missile. If that plane is still in one piece they better figure out how to detect it. Who knows what horrible payload it could be used to transport...chilling... They better be scouring every 5000+ foot runway in the area plus looking to see if anybody is buying jet fuel and enabling every kind of radar there is worldwide.
 
art
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:26 am

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 117):
Can you specify the source of data that the ACARS was disabled from the flight deck. How do (would) we know that.

I don't think we do know that. I think that this has been judged to be probable - "might have been disabled" changes to "was disabled" if perceived probability increases enough. I dislike changes from probability to certainty without the basis on which the changes were made being fully explained. No explanation has been offered as far as I know.
 
CaliAtenza
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:26 am

I don't know why, but everything this guy has been saying: https://twitter.com/flyingwithfish , has pretty much come true so far.
 
cpw
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:27 am

Quoting ThunderboltDrgn (Reply 216):
but the planes hex code would still be the same and that hex code would
have identified the plane as the one we're looking for.

Is the HEX code hard-coded into the transponder hardware, or the airplane itself? How difficult would it be to do a swap of a transponder while in flight? Is it as simple as unscrewing a few screws on the instrument panel, sliding out a board, and sliding a new one in, or does it require a bunch of work in the equipment bays? Not suggesting this as a possibility, but curious about whether it's even possible.
 
Lindenwold
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:29 am

Quoting windshear (Reply 154):
Quoting CaliAtenza (Reply 221):

tsa confiscated his laptops a few years ago to find out who his sources are.

http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2009/12/dhs-threatens-blogger/
 
hivue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:30 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 217):
How do they *know* ACARS was disabled while they were still outbound on the east coast?

I would hazard a guess that if ACARS (VHF or SATCOM) is shut down, the last message it sends is it's being shut down.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:31 am

Quoting cpw (Reply 222):
Is the HEX code hard-coded into the transponder hardware, or the airplane itself? How difficult would it be to do a swap of a transponder while in flight? Is it as simple as unscrewing a few screws on the instrument panel, sliding out a board, and sliding a new one in, or does it require a bunch of work in the equipment bays? Not suggesting this as a possibility, but curious about whether it's even possible.

It is coded into the LRU rack that houses the transponder hardware. It requires maintenance hardware to change.

The reason it is coded into the rack is so that transponders can be swapped like-for-like without reprogramming each one.

So, yes, "into the airplane itself".
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
cpw
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:33 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 225):
So, yes, "into the airplane itself".

Thanks for the info.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:33 am

Quoting hivue (Reply 224):
I would hazard a guess that if ACARS (VHF or SATCOM) is shut down, the last message it sends is it's being shut down.

While that's a possibility, that's not how any network engineer would design it. The SATCOM-INMARSAT connection is potentially used for more than just ACARS if equipped, which makes sense for it to stay alive. The VHF-SITA connection is used just for ACARS so it makes sense to power down.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
fooflyboy
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:35 am

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 198):
The worst? Really? You're telling me the guy who thought it flew into lower-outer space is a better theory? Or at this point, it catching on fire and flying for 7 more hours is a better theory? Or that a catastrophic bomb is a better theory? Or an all out electrical failure, even though they could fly airways for hours, is a better theory? Based on what we know now. You believe that my theory is the absolute worst theory and I need to stop talking? I'll give you that pilot suicide is probably a better theory, but it too has questions.

Thank you for leaving my theory off your list.   

Quoting edmountain (Reply 211):
I don't think the tracks are thought to be flight paths. Rather, the aircraft was felt to be at some point along the arcs at the moment of its last contact with a satellite.

Boy we're still amazingly lucky we had that SATCOM. Without that, that plane literally would have 'vanished'.
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:35 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 219):
That couldn't have been planned if it wasn't a pilot. The captain also had a lot of sim equipment to practice how to avoid detection. I fear that he ascended to 45,000 feet and disabled the oxygen system knocking out or killing all the passengers.

I agree that the timing was perfect, if intentional, and only the pilots would have known what that precise time would be.

How advanced was his simulator? Could he practice scenarios like that? I doubt it. Unless, he has some software that makes it more realistic.

I just had an idea. The pilot who took the plane damaged / somehow disabled the other pilots oxygen mask. Let's say that the bad pilot was the one would did not do the walk around. While the other pilot did a walk around, the bad pilot damaged his oxygen mask. That way he could get everyone in the plane to pass out except for himself... just an idea. How hard would it be to disable the other pilot's oxygen mask?
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CaliAtenza
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:37 am

Quoting Lindenwold (Reply 223):

tsa confiscated his laptops a few years ago to find out who his sources are.

http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2009/12/dhs-threatens-blogger/

doesn't mean he's wrong though; look at all what has happened this week....everything that guy said has come true...
 
undertheradar
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:37 am

Quoting hivue (Reply 215):

that's how I interpret the PMs 'statement'...the only thing he really confirmed is that they are 'changing' the elements of the search area...as 'new' info is being 'released', this will continue on and on and......

my 'single act by a pilot' with MH370 on the bottom of the Indian Ocean theory still stands in my mind...AND I also fear the absolute truth will never be publically revealed...we will just be 'fed' the 'official explanation'
 
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7BOEING7
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:37 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 219):
I fear that he ascended to 45,000 feet and disabled the oxygen system knocking out or killing all the passengers.

You can't disable the oxygen system for the passengers and climbing to FL450 (impossible at his initial weight) doesn't knock out the passengers unless you depressurize the airplane and wait for the oxygen in back to run out. Same thing happens at FL350, just takes a few seconds longer.

Quoting enilria (Reply 219):
He probably didn't think about the satellite ping as MH wasn't subscribing to the service.

The airplane was equipped with SATCOM, the pilots could have called home on it if they wanted.
 
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N328KF
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:37 am

Something about the timing. Does this now indicate that MH370 was still in the air when the panic alarm went out that it was missing?
“In the age of information, ignorance is a choice.”
-Donny Miller
 
AT
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:38 am

I know this is pre-emptive thinking but if turns out that the pilots are guilty of something sinister, I do hope that we treat their family members with respect and that they don't become social pariahs or worse- their safety is threatened- because of the actions of their husband/father... Unless of course they were involved in a plan...

Also, of the only two possibilities - that the plane has landed somewhere, or it has crashed- isn't the latter more likely?
It just seems to me that were it to land somewhere, no matter how remote, there's no way that would go undetected for a week. But then again this story is more bizarre than most fiction.
 
flyinggoat
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:39 am

I find it a bit sobering to think that this plane could be anywhere in the world by now, assuming it hasn't crashed. A week has past since it went missing, and that's a lot of time for it to land, refuel, and fly somewhere else.

I think the plane has probably gone down in the ocean, but I dunno. Landing somewhere is starting to sound more plausible.
 
tapir
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:40 am

This looks interesting, As I said before, the focus is on the pilot. it looks like local political issue.

http://tinyurl.com/q8yv9op
 
CaliAtenza
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:41 am

Quoting AT (Reply 235):
Also, of the only two possibilities - that the plane has landed somewhere, or it has crashed- isn't the latter more likely?
It just seems to me that were it to land somewhere, no matter how remote, there's no way that would go undetected for a week. But then again this story is more bizarre than most fiction.

or it has been detected, and some type of special ops operation is on...to maybe rescue the passengers. Notice how US government officials keep saying "the southern route is more likely". That's exactly what i would say to divert attention from the northern route.
 
socalgeo
Posts: 408
Joined: Tue Mar 11, 2014 3:56 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:42 am

Quoting turjo101 (Reply 156):
I am totally baffled by What kind of radar systems do Bangladesh and Nepal have. I keep hearing about the Bay of Bengal. Is it possible the airplane flew relatively low altitude over Bangladesh and then the short stretch of India before going up in altitude over Nepal and then western China (Xinjiang)?

Possibly pro-Uighur perpetrators?!?

I've been thinking about this, so I spent a little time searching the interweb and I found this ICAO report from Jan 2013 that has an interesting map.

http://www.icao.int/APAC/Meetings/20...mmunications%20Coverage%20Gaps.pdf

Here is the map from the report:



I added the red star and the red line. I'm thinking that the red star could be where the Malaysian ATC had its last radar contact, and I just made the red line up as what looked like the path to the north search area that would go through the least amount of primary radar. I'm no radar expert, but I did read a report that on the same ICAO web site that says that the perfect circles that are used in these kinds of maps are very optimistic, and that terrain and other factors can effect range. So perhaps it is plausible that an experienced pilot found a way through undetected.
After all, this is part of the strategy that any military would use to defeat radar in a conflict. Since the transponder communications were off, I don't think the blue circles would be a threat (correct?). Also, that path traverses the Himalayas, and I'd not be surprised if military radars in the region are affected by them as much as civilian radars might be...

I'm hoping to add this data to my live map, but it will take some time, this data seems hard to come by. if anyone has a list, csv, or kml of ATC surveillance locations, lat/long or just the airport name, I'd be happy to plot it on the map.
Anyway, I'm not an expert, but it is in interesting thought to consider.

Hope this works out for these people on the plane,

SoCalGeo
 
nupogodi
Posts: 933
Joined: Mon Mar 10, 2014 10:58 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:42 am

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 233):
The airplane was equipped with SATCOM, the pilots could have called home on it if they wanted.

I don't think the accident a/c had satphones installed even though the MH site says their 777s do (the question was, "why didn't anyone use a satphone?").

If we are to believe what the PM said, that ACARS was shut down before they left the peninsula, and RR is to be believed that EHM phoned home after that point (when they reached cruise), then we are left with the cognitive dissonance of ACARS being both on and off at the same time if we accept both versions as fact. The only way I can resolve this is to say that they turned off ACARS over VHF but left ACARS over SATCOM on, because they knew the a/c would not send AHM messages to MH over SATCOM as they were not subscribed.

edit: They may have not known that airline policy allowed for EHM transmissions over SATCOM. Which is the only way that I can reconcile both of those two "facts". If the EHM data came to SITA via VHF from the a/c, then the PMs statement was wrong, or RR is wrong.

[Edited 2014-03-15 17:47:34]
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
CaliAtenza
Posts: 1686
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 1:43 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:44 am

Quoting socalgeo (Reply 241):
added the red star and the red line. I'm thinking that the red star could be where the Malaysian ATC had its last radar contact, and I just made the red line up as what looked like the path to the north search area that would go through the least amount of primary radar. I'm no radar expert, but I did read a report that on the same ICAO web site that says that the perfect circles that are used in these kinds of maps are very optimistic, and that terrain and other factors can effect range. So perhaps it is plausible that an experienced pilot found a way through undetected.
After all, this is part of the strategy that any military would use to defeat radar in a conflict. Since the transponder communications were off, I don't think the blue circles would be a threat (correct?). Also, that path traverses the Himalayas, and I'd not be surprised if military radars in the region are affected by them as much as civilian radars might be...

I'm hoping to add this data to my live map, but it will take some time, this data seems hard to come by. if anyone has a list, csv, or kml of ATC surveillance locations, lat/long or just the airport name, I'd be happy to plot it on the map.
Anyway, I'm not an expert, but it is in interesting thought to consider.

Hope this works out for these people on the plane,

That's a really good map  . I think if the plane flew over burma or bangladesh...there is a much better chance to sneak into china.
 
StuckInCA
Posts: 1658
Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:55 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:45 am

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 198):
The worst? Really?

Yep. Mainly because it is not only terrible, but because you won't stop pushing it. A 777 is not cutting edge and China wouldn't need to do this to reverse engineer one.

That doesn't mean this aircraft isn't somewhere in China, but that was in no way the totality of your "theory."
 
hivue
Posts: 2142
Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:26 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:47 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 242):
The only way I can resolve this is to say that they turned off ACARS over VHF but left ACARS over SATCOM on, because they knew the a/c would not send AHM messages to MH over SATCOM as they were not subscribed.

Anything else besides a keep alive signal and EHM data (and phone calls) that might have gone out over SATCOM?
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
nupogodi
Posts: 933
Joined: Mon Mar 10, 2014 10:58 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:48 am

Quoting hivue (Reply 245):
Anything else besides a keep alive signal and EHM data (and phone calls) that might have gone out over SATCOM?

Technically it's used for in-flight WiFi and cell phone microcells and such, but not with the low-bandwidth version they were using, and accident a/c was not equipped.

Personally I don't know.

edit: definitely not wifi, not enough bandwidth. One MF 777 was equipped with the microcell tech, not accident a/c, but it was a pilot program and discontinued: http://www.honeywellnow.com/2009/03/...bles-cell-phone-use-during-flight/

[Edited 2014-03-15 17:56:20]
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
11Bravo
Posts: 1683
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 8:54 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:49 am

Quoting CaliAtenza (Reply 243):
I think if the plane flew over burma or bangladesh...there is a much better chance to sneak into china.

I think if that was the goal, the aircraft would have just flown to its intended destination in the first place.  
WhaleJets Rule!
 
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enilria
Posts: 10410
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:53 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 229):
How advanced was his simulator? Could he practice scenarios like that? I doubt it. Unless, he has some software that makes it more realistic.

I saw pictures of it in an early article linked from this thread. He had three screens. He had pilot and copilot screens + he had a "ceiling" mounted screen with digital toggle buttons which is really going a long way toward realism.

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 233):
and climbing to FL450 (impossible at his initial weight)

That altitude was from the press conference.

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 233):
The airplane was equipped with SATCOM, the pilots could have called home on it if they wanted.

They would only have used it to call Afghanistan...

Quoting flyinggoat (Reply 237):
Landing somewhere is starting to sound more plausible.

...because that is probably where they were going.  (
 
capri
Posts: 499
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2003 1:32 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:55 am

no wonder

Quoting Tapir (Reply 238):
This looks interesting, As I said before, the focus is on the pilot. it looks like local political issue.

http://tinyurl.com/q8yv9op

no wonder in first day some put in a link in first threads that this pilot is a hero before we started to know anything about the missing flight, not even a start of a search, and people jumped quickly about the heroism thing, so someone or some people in Malaysia got more knowledge about this
 
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Starlionblue
Posts: 20702
Joined: Fri Feb 27, 2004 9:54 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:55 am

Quoting ThunderboltDrgn (Reply 83):
Quoting k83713 (Reply 81):
Someone told that opening the door is rather impossible in flight,
since it opens outside and pressure won't let do it, but what about low height?

I think It is only impossible if there is a pressure difference between the cabin and the air outside..

Correct. It only takes a small pressure difference but there has to be one. If the pressure is equalized you can open the doors. You go first. I'll just sit here with my belt on.  
Quoting flyenthu (Reply 108):
Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 94):

Crash would have set off the ELT.

Can someone explain this quote? This is the first time I am hearing ELT being discussed in a crash context. Usually, it has always been locating and recovering the CVR and CDR. So, is the ELT supposed to go off if the aircraft crashes? If so, how does one read the ELT signal? One more, would the ELT work with the transponder off; are these two separate? Thank you!

ELTs are activated by G-force or by a switch in the cockpit. They transmit on 121.5MHz (international emergency frequency, AKA "guard frequency") and also on 406MHz satcom frequence.

Quoting fooflyboy (Reply 139):
Quoting rcair1 (Reply 116):
ELT stands for Emergency Location Transmitter and it is an independent piece of battery powered equipment specifically intended to transmit location upon crash. It is unrelated and independent from all the other radio systems.

Where is this located on the aircraft? Is it easy to access (to disable it)?

The ELT is by regulation located "as far aft as practicable", in other words in the tail. AFAIK you can't disable it from the cockpit, making it a very unique piece of equipment.

Quoting theaviator380 (Reply 155):
What you guys make of that ?

Satellite asked #MH370 'can you hear me?' The 777 said 'yes' & the normal pings didn't immediately raise red flags

Planes "disappear" briefly all the time. It's normal. Malfunctions, missed handoffs, wrong frequencies, wrong transponder codes. It takes a while before an alert is raised. Also, I believe this satellite data is not exactly at the fingertips of operators. The experts are probably combing through low-level logs.

Quoting edmountain (Reply 174):
Is the satellite modem possibly needed for other things that he might possibly need, e.g. for GPS input to the flight management system?

As mentioned, GPS does not send any information to satellites, so it does not need a modem.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
chaseus1
Posts: 77
Joined: Thu Mar 13, 2014 8:46 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:56 am

I wonder... did the co-pilot seek out Richard Quest for an interview, or did it just happen by luck that he was the one chosen for that feature by CNN and the airline?
 
jelliesR
Posts: 94
Joined: Sat Mar 15, 2014 1:46 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27

Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:56 am

the pings by the satellite all implied the same distance data. That seems to me to be not chance. It suggests the pilot flew at a constant radius around the satellite, either arc north (into various radars) or arc southward (into nothing), OR was just at one position the whole time.

So I think it is as likely the plane was just circling at constant distance from the geo stationary satellite. I don't know why it would do that, but it seems more likely than a curved flight to nowhere especially by a pilot who didn't realise the plane can be tracked that way. A deliberate flight for 7 hours without knowing the satellite pings were establishing a distance would show variable distances, as the flight track got closer or further away.
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