MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

flyingturtle · Sun Mar 16, 2014 4:59 pm

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 199):
Considering the plane was powered until 0811L, extremely unlikely the wreckage is there. How would you explain such a thing... circling until fuel starvation? Conveniently not picked up on radar?

This might open the possibility of MH370 being hijacked by total noobs. First up to FL 450, down to FL 230, up to 295, and then cluelessly flying around until fuel runs out.

But then, their comms knowledge would be lightyears better than their flying skills. That's the problem.

David

[Edited 2014-03-16 10:03:10]

capri · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:02 pm

Flying With Fish ‏@flyingwithfish 3m
@RaulApex a Greek vessel has searched the area luggage was reported and reported there was nothing there

Thunderboltdrgn · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:05 pm

Quoting capri (Reply 201):
Flying With Fish ‏@flyingwithfish 3m
@RaulApex a Greek vessel has searched the area luggage was reported and reported there was nothing ther

A Greek article reported the same thing several hours ago:

http://translate.googleusercontent.c...ALkJrhgiJhelQcxy4MMI8sIR4VV25OIFEA

aftgaffe · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:09 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 200):
This might open the possibility of MH370 being hijacked by total noobs. First up to FL 450, down to FL 230, up to 295, and then cluelessly flying around until fuel runs out.

But so much else happened that noobs should not have been able to accomplish. Turning off the transponder. Turning off ACARS. Even knowing to do these things much less how is significant. Not allowing the pilots to communicate a hijacking. Knowing to fly at FL 295, which happens to maximize fuel efficiency while minimizing the risk of encountering commercial traffic. Avoiding a lot of radar detection. Pulling this all off without a pax revolt.

I just don't see a richard reid type ever pulling this off. Even if it ultimately failed and/or the a/c crashed, I just don't see a scenario in which highly intelligent and sophisticated individuals were not involved.

jcxroberts · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:11 pm

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 88):

I cannot speak for KUL but i can assure you that 100% of all cargo leaving Germany (and most other European countries) is 100% screened.

That usually is done by x-ray, same as baggage.

I don't think this MH370 was x-rayed for whatever reason.

capri · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:12 pm

Finding anything in the sea is as remote as the sea itself, news moe and more tend to believe this plane landed and were dealt with accordingly, wich explains India pulling SAR, may even plane came back and relanded on Malaysian militay soil and what ever was on board were dealt and now trying to figure out how to get rid of wreckage and make it look a mystery or throw it back into sea, any thing is up in the air after 10 days

rcair1 · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:13 pm

Sanity Check - 3/16/14 16:00 Zulu
There is (will be) a link to this post in my profile under "homepage"

•	3/16/14 1600Z update.
•	The facts have not changed much, however speculation and discussion has shifted to potential human actors - including crew.
•	I've tried to be as factually accurate as I can - but I'm not an expert in each system - so if there factual errors please advise.
•	I've added sections on: Cargo, Fuel, Consipiricies, Pilot related conspiricy. I've bolstered ACARS/SATCOM.

First a synopsis

•	The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing
•	The last ACARS transmission was 01:07 local. Confusion continues about if and when ACARS was turned off (See ACARS below)
•	The last comms were a normal hand-off from Malaysia to Vietnam control at about 1:30 local. It was a normal 'good night' on the Malaysian side, but Vietnam was not contacted.
•	The aircraft dropped off secondary radar with no communication from the cockpit.
•	There are reports of a climb to 45K, uneven descent and some changes in altitude. Since this is based on primary radar - altitude data is somewhat uncertain. The last has been reported as 29,500ft but that seems in dispute.
•	There are subsequent primary radar returns west over Malacca Straight and then north west. Since it is primarily radar - a reflection - it does identify the a/c, however it has been correlated with SATCOM pings so confidence is high that the returns are from MH370
•	SATCOM system pings continued for 7+ (last ping at 08:11 local) hrs after LOS (loss of signal)
•	SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on correlation to signal strength there are two loci that indication aicraft disatnce from the Satellite.
•	These are not paths and I have changed my language to reflect that. They represent a distance from the satallite.
•	Loci one is north over Andaman Sea, Bay of Bengal as far as Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and is consistent with primary radar.
•	Loci two is south over the India Ocean west of Australia. We've had no reports of radar signals in that area.
•	The last SATCOM ping was at 8:11 am Malaysian time. At that time it would be dark on the north radius and light over the south radius.
•	Best data I have is SATCOM pings are hourly - so the 8:11 ping could be up to 1 hour before the aircraft stopped 'pinging'.
•	We have no ELT signal detected.
•	While authorities (Malaysian) have not confirmed this is a hijacking or purposeful event - it is believed that is highly likely by most, however, motivation is unknown.

ACARS

•	ACARS is an automated aircraft communication system that transmits a/c information, primarily maintenance information, to maintenance facilities like the airline, Boeing, Engine Manf, etc.
•	ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight.
•	ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.
•	ACARS communicates via VHF or SATCOM (and maybe Wifi at the gate). The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.
•	ACARS can be instructed not to use SATCOM or VHF from the Cockpit. This would effectively stop ACARS from sending data. Access to the EE bay is not required.
•	The Malaysian prime minister said (quote):
•	"We can say with a high degree of certainty that the Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was disabled just before the reached the East coast of Pennusla Malaysia".
•	No explination of how that determination could be made has been released.
•	OPINION: The most likely conjecture I've seen is that ACARS was using VHF comms at that point and some indication of ACARS cesing communication via VHF can be made. However, this has not been confirmed and it seems to me this could be consistent with ACARS swapping to SATCOM mode?

ACARS data from MH370

•	The ACARS system sent 2 engine health reports to Rolls Royce, both prior to the LOS event.
•	The Rolls Royce page seems to indicate that a 'snapshot' of engine data would be sent at: takeoff, climb, cruise and landing. We know 2 ACARS Engine Health reports were received, so that would be consistent with the 1st two.
•	Based on this, we would expect a cruise and landing report. We have heard of neither.
•	The Engine Health report received prior to LOS had 'interesting' altitude data/fluctuations including 40K drop in a minute. That data is suspect.
•	Since no "landing" report was received, then either the ACARS communication was disabled, or the a/c did not land.
•	We have not heard if ACARS would send a report upon fuel starvation flame-out.

SATCOM

•

SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.

•

SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.

•

The SATCOM system on MH370 was connecting to Inmarsat 3 satellites. In the area covered, the only satallite with coverage is IOR.

•

Since only 1 satellite has coverge, no tringulation is possible. All that can be determined is distance from the satallite. This has been used to define 2 potential loci were the a/c could have been.

•

NOTE: While these may appear as paths - they are not. They are simply a set of potential locations based upon ping data. The aircraft could have been in a constant standard turn circle somewhere along one of the loci (red lines) and the satallite could not tell. We only know it was somewhere along those lines.

SATCOM Pings

•	The SATCOM system sends (or responds to) periodic 'pings' to/from the satellites. These 'pings' are a network communication that says "I am here."
•	SATCOM pings are not communicating a/c status, they are part of the communications channel. They are akin to registration pings on a cell system.
•	The last pings were detected at 8:11am Malaysia time. This does not mean the aircraft went down or landed at this time, only that the last ping was 8:11. Source I've seen indicate the pings are hourly - but that is not confirmed.
•	SATCOM pings provide no aircraft heading, speed or altitude information, however, distance from the Satellite can be estimated, and ONLY distance.
•	Based on analysis of the SATCOM pings by Inmarsat, two possible loci have been predicted based upon a radius from the satellite picking up the pings.
•	People have asked if SATCOM pings would occur if the aircraft was landed, but operating.
•	We have not seen data on this, but I would presume it would.
•	People have asked if SATCOM pings could come from a crashed plane if the right parts survived.
•	Very unlikely. The system is not self contained, the equipment, power and antennas are separate.

CRV/FDR Data

•	The CVR (cockpit voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder) do not transmit data in flight.
•	They do emit sonic pings if immersed. These will last a minimum of 30 days. We can expect sonar is being used to listen for them.
•	The CVR reportedly is a 120 minute CVR so it would contain only the last 120 minutes of flight (presuming it did not fail or was turned off prior to that).
•	I don't have data form the recording time of the FDR, but it is typically much longer.

Way-point Tracks

•	The use of way-points to the navigate are conjecture. They happen to line up with the direction indicated by the primary radar returns and Inmarsat data to the north.
•	While many believe the aircraft was under control - we cannot conclude if these way-point were used, or just along the path.

Airworthiness Directive

•	The airworthiness directive about corrosion near the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship.
•	The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antenna

Cargo and Lithium Battery Fires.

•	There are reports that the cargo in MH370 did not receive normal X-ray screening.
•	There are also statements that the shipment held nothing hazardous or remarkable.
•	There are reports of a shipment of lithium batteries on the a/c and that perhaps they caused a fire.
•	It seems very unlikely a fire could be intense enough to disable the crew, but then the a/c would survive and fly for 7+ hours.
•	Opinion: as a firefighter, I doubt this. The fire would destroy the a/c.

Aircraft Fuel State

•	It is reported the aircraft 45 to 60 minutes extra fuel. This would amount to about 7-7.5 hrs of fuel. This is a normal amount for this route.

Search Areas (including those that have be halted)

•	Along the planed route. I believe searching in this area is ending or decreasing based on new data indicating the a/c is not there
•	West over the Malacca straight
•	North west of Malacca straight
•	Along the two loci predicted by the SATCOM pings which continue north to Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and south to the India Ocean.
•	These are huge search areas - I do not have a good handle on what assets are deployed where
•	It appears the north loci is considered more likely because of primary radar signals that roughly correlate.
•	I would expect review of primary radar west of Australia is in process if not done.

Mobile phones

•	We continue to have lots of discussion on "mobile phones" - can the connect in flight, etc.
•	We don't have any reports or evidence of that any passenger or crew mobile phone has registered with any network.
•	Until we have that data or reports - I believe the mobile phone discussions are not useful.

Conspiracy Theories

•	There are lots of conspiracy theories out there - from the Malaysian government hiding something to pilot suicide, to hijacking to whatever.
•	The breadth of the countries searching alone makes me discount many of the government is hiding it aspects.
•	It is likely there are covert (secret) resources in the area that are trying to provide the info without revealing themselves.
•	Currently, it seems most believe there is some positive action here - hijacker or crew based.
•	Opinion: Mostly, I believe this is because a mechanical failure that selectively terminates communication, incapacitates the crew/passengers, but then allows the a/c to fly on uncontrolled for 7 hours seems unlikely.
•	Investigations of crew have begun in earnest.
•	Despite the belief this is incident required human actions - we have no evidence of that. Rather - no other theory seems credible.
•	Some of the more prevalent.
•	The pilot (senior, not FO) hijacked the plane to commit suicide. (See Pilot Conspiricy below).
•	Freescale engineers have been hijacked for sensitive US data. As an engineer who has worked with Freescale - I find that unsupportable. Companies send groups of employees around all the time. While many companies have policies about the # of executives on a flight - that typically is not enforced on regular employees.
•	There was something in the Cargo worth stealing - which is why it was not screened. Note: this makes no sense to me. It would require involvement of lots of people on the ground and it would be much easier to steal, on the ground.
•	The US hijacked the 777 using onboard FBW technology to fly it like a drone to Diego Garcea (this one wins the insanity case).

Pilot Related Conspiracy Theories (some of this is my opinion).

•	The crew and passengers are a focus of investigation. Particulary the crew, because of the difficulty of managing an external cockpit intrusion.
•	The pilot has received a lot of attention because: 1) He supports opposition politics, 2) He has a mongo flight simulator, 3) There are rumors of family problems (debunked).
•	To address the data on a few of these:
•	1) The pilot supports opposition politics and may have been at a trial of the oposition leader (confirmed 'ordinary' member of oposition party). Opinion: What is the motive for suicide in this case?
•	2) The pilot has a very fancy flight simulator. People claim he used it to for this. Opinion: A 777 pilot does not need to train for the flying done - he knows how to do that stuff already. What he needs it planning for violent action/takeover. A flight simulator is no help.
•	3) There are rumors of family problems reported from China. This has been reported as untrue - and generated laughter in the latest pressor

IN summary what we know is. (This has NOT changed)

•	The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.
•	There is evidence from SATCOM and Radar that the a/c traveled west - then most likely north west.
•	SATCOM signals show the a/c was operating till at least 8:11am Malaysia time, over 7 hrs total flight time
•	We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.

What seems likely.

•	A hijacking or positive intervention by human agency seems likely.
•	The erratic altitude and course may indicate a struggle on board.
•	While we would like to believe the a/c landed safely somewhere, that seems unlikely to have happened unobserved.

That is all.
Respectfully Submitted - rcair1

na · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:14 pm

Who spoke the words "Good night"? The wifes/spouses of the pilots have surely identfied who it was if it was one of the two pilots. 100% sure, no 99%. Wonder why that has not been said in the press conference. What could be the reason?

aftgaffe · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:17 pm

Quoting na (Reply 207):
Who spoke the words "Good night"? The wifes/spouses of the pilots have surely identfied who it was if it was one of the two pilots. 100% sure, no 99%. Wonder why that has not been said in the press conference. What could be the reason?

I don't have the links at my fingertips but when the news about the "last words" was broken, the Captain was identified as the speaker.

Thunderboltdrgn · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:20 pm

"Missing Malaysia plane: MH370 and the military gaps"
From an hour old BBC article: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26603830

mandala499 · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:22 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 200):
This might open the possibility of MH370 being hijacked by total noobs. First up to FL 450, down to FL 230, up to 295, and then cluelessly flying around until fuel runs out.

But then, their comms knowledge would be lightyears better than their flying skills. That's the problem.

Let's put it this way...
1. You see a target you think is a civil jet of your national carrier...
2. That jet makes a U turn back towards land...
3. It goes up and down varying speeds and doesn't maintain level flight...

What do you think is happening?
A. Is it in trouble?
B. Has it been hijacked?

4. You check the ATC, they don't see it. So you all know transponder's off...
5. You call the jet to offer assistance.
6. Jet doesn't reply...

What do you think is happening?
A. Is it in trouble?
B. Has it been hijacked?
C. It's having comms issues that's why it's not answering you?

7. Then before you realize it, it's over the strait of Malacca, turns right, and goes to FL295
What do you think is happening?
A. Is it in trouble?
B. Has it been hijacked?
C. It's having comms issues that's why it's not answering you?

8. Jet turns north west and follows a busy airway...
Well, you might only realize by this time that these guys are running away...

Point: The "appearing to be noobie" chain of events may simply have been an act to fool the military radar operators into thinking what I said above...

aftgaffe · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:25 pm

Quoting na (Reply 207):

Who spoke the words "Good night"? The wifes/spouses of the pilots have surely identfied who it was if it was one of the two pilots. 100% sure, no 99%. Wonder why that has not been said in the press conference. What could be the reason?

For example, http://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/219...-mh370-pilots-last-words-revealed/

I saw this elsewhere as well but I would not discount the possibility that media reports may have assumed it was the Captain withOUT specific confirmation.

Agree though, whether it was the cap't or f/o matters a great deal, particularly if, as it appears, ACARS was disabled prior to that comm.

[Edited 2014-03-16 10:26:33]

na · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:26 pm

Quoting aftgaffe (Reply 208):
I don't have the links at my fingertips but when the news about the "last words" was broken, the Captain was identified as the speaker.

Really, why is the world press then still saying its an unidentified voice? In any article from the major news services I read its the same.

Also, I think that some jounalist should stand up tomorrow and ask the Malaysian AF general, why nothing happened when an unidentified plane overflew Malaysia and was seen on the screens of several military installations. No alarm, no plane sent up trying to find out. Also ask the general, why it took them 4 days before saying anything.
Possible explanations: 1. the supervising controllers (at several stations!) all slept and the signals were only detected when researching the archive. Thats a military secret of course and a shame. 2. they saw it, but as that happens regularly they didnt care. Not good for the military either. 3. the Malaysian radar is unreliable and the supervisor thought its a false signal. I cant see a scenario that paints a positive picture of the military here.

[Edited 2014-03-16 10:31:45]

capri · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:27 pm

Quoting ThunderboltDrgn (Reply 209):

Quoting ThunderboltDrgn (Reply 209):
Missing Malaysia plane: MH370 and the military gaps"
From an hour old BBC article: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26603830

It has now emerged that Malaysian primary military radar tracked an unidentified contact that flew right across the country's air space, now confirmed to be MH370. But no action, it seems, was taken.

maybe that's what they want us to believe, maybe they dealt with it and went wrong and now trying to figure out a rational explanation

jetfuel · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:27 pm

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 210):
Let's put it this way...
1. You see a target you think is a civil jet of your national carrier...
2. That jet makes a U turn back towards land...
3. It goes up and down varying speeds and doesn't maintain level flight...

What do you think is happening?
A. Is it in trouble?
B. Has it been hijacked?

4. You check the ATC, they don't see it. So you all know transponder's off...
5. You call the jet to offer assistance.
6. Jet doesn't reply...

What do you think is happening?
A. Is it in trouble?
B. Has it been hijacked?
C. It's having comms issues that's why it's not answering you?

7. Then before you realize it, it's over the strait of Malacca, turns right, and goes to FL295
What do you think is happening?
A. Is it in trouble?
B. Has it been hijacked?
C. It's having comms issues that's why it's not answering you?

8. Jet turns north west and follows a busy airway...
Well, you might only realize by this time that these guys are running away...

Point: The "appearing to be noobie" chain of events may simply have been an act to fool the military radar operators into thinking what I said above...

AND THEN wait 6 hours to tell the world that a Boeing 777 is missing? Something doesn't ad up. If this happened in the USA or Europe there would have been a fighter up there within an hour. Seriously folks think about how ridiculous this is making the Malaysians look

SeeTheWorld · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:29 pm

Quoting capri (Reply 205):
Finding anything in the sea is as remote as the sea itself, news moe and more tend to believe this plane landed and were dealt with accordingly, wich explains India pulling SAR, may even plane came back and relanded on Malaysian militay soil and what ever was on board were dealt and now trying to figure out how to get rid of wreckage and make it look a mystery or throw it back into sea, any thing is up in the air after 10 days

I think it means they are pretty sure it's way out in the South Indian Ocean and only certain countries with the appropriate assets will probably partake in the search going forward.

na · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:30 pm

Quoting aftgaffe (Reply 211):
Agree though, whether it was the cap't or f/o matters a great deal, particularly if, as it appears, ACARS was disabled prior to that comm.

Its vital, and as both pilots were married or going to be married its totally unbelievable that the voice has not been unidentified. If there was indeed some kind of criminal activity going on, the one who spoke last would be the main suspect.

nupogodi · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:31 pm

Quoting jetfuel (Reply 214):
Seriously folks think about how ridiculous this is making the Malaysians look

That may have been the point.

SeeTheWorld · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:32 pm

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 210):
Let's put it this way...
1. You see a target you think is a civil jet of your national carrier...
2. That jet makes a U turn back towards land...
3. It goes up and down varying speeds and doesn't maintain level flight...

What do you think is happening?
A. Is it in trouble?
B. Has it been hijacked?

4. You check the ATC, they don't see it. So you all know transponder's off...
5. You call the jet to offer assistance.
6. Jet doesn't reply...

What do you think is happening?
A. Is it in trouble?
B. Has it been hijacked?
C. It's having comms issues that's why it's not answering you?

7. Then before you realize it, it's over the strait of Malacca, turns right, and goes to FL295
What do you think is happening?
A. Is it in trouble?
B. Has it been hijacked?
C. It's having comms issues that's why it's not answering you?

8. Jet turns north west and follows a busy airway...
Well, you might only realize by this time that these guys are running away...

Point: The "appearing to be noobie" chain of events may simply have been an act to fool the military radar operators into thinking what I said above...

I think that's an excellent point, and I'm glad that heard from you on this theory ...

garpd · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:34 pm

Quoting petertenthije (Reply 178):
Floating debris & suit cases found by Greek oil tanker Elka Athina seen from above view. Wreckage found in Malacca Straits.

https://twitter.com/ashren/status/445214982523727873/photo/1
http://www.bigbreakingnews.com/2014/...l5Ouk

Much ado about nothing.

That looks like a wisp of cloud to me.

SeeTheWorld · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:35 pm

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 217):
That may have been the point.

Another excellent point ....

Sligo · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:36 pm

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 146):

The Daily Mail is a sensationalist rag and you shouldn't trust a word they say. I don't know if he attended the trial, but all indications are that he was a strong supporter and would have been very upset by the decision.

More than the trial, I thought that the nugget that the *Captain's wife and kids moved out of the house the day before the flight* was the most important. Now to determine if the article had that correct or not....

Tangowhisky · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:39 pm

rcair1 thanks for yhe great analysis and updating the fact sheet.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 206):
It is reported the aircraft 45 to 60 minutes extra fuel. This would amount to about 7-7.5 hrs of fuel. This is a normal amount for this route.

What would it take to conceal that the aircraft took off with higher fuel than documented? Who would have to be in on it, and how can this be done?

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 206):
Mobile phones

It is possible with 239 occupants some cell phones were never turned off. If let's say the plane landed somewhere, it is possible that some phones made a roaming connection. This could provide a lead to investigators.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 206):
SATCOM signals show the a/c was operating till at least 8:11am Malaysia time,

Does this plane have seatback telephones? Do we know when the SATCOMs were turned off (at the same time as the ACARS and transponders)? The reason I ask is that if the SATCOMs were turned off much later, there can be some traces of phone attempts by passengers to indicate if there was struggle going on in the plane or not.

na · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:40 pm

Quoting Sligo (Reply 221):
More than the trial, I thought that the nugget that the *Captain's wife and kids moved out of the house the day before the flight* was the most important. Now to determine if the article had that correct or not....

One of the myriads of MH370 "news" that was denied already.

flyingturtle · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:42 pm

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 210):

The whole stuff is crazy.

I also thought of the possibility of a whole team of hijackers. The subgroup knows how to fly, but are taken down by passengers, F/A, the pilots... and the remainder is able to get the upper hand. But they don't know how fly, despite their A/C systems knowledge.

If this really is hostage-taking, or some other sort of extortion or outright murder, I beg any people to come forward, anonymously or not, and tell us what happened.

David

Sligo · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:43 pm

Quoting na (Reply 223):
One of the myriads of MH370 "news" that was denied already.

Denied or debunked? Denials from "offiicials" are worth as much as the accusation. Where did it come from and what does the actual family say? Answers to those questions, which seem basic in usual circumstances, are stunningly hard to come by here.

mandala499 · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:44 pm

Quoting jetfuel (Reply 214):
If this happened in the USA or Europe there would have been a fighter up there within an hour.

So where were the interceptors that fateful day in 2001? Take the hindsight away...

Quoting jetfuel (Reply 214):
AND THEN wait 6 hours to tell the world that a Boeing 777 is missing? Something doesn't ad up.

It may have taken them 6 hours to check they're seeing what they thought they were seeing... and that they needed to make sure they don't equally fool themselves by rushing to announce only to find the airplane made it to its destination.

Quoting jetfuel (Reply 214):
Seriously folks think about how ridiculous this is making the Malaysians look

Well these guys succeeded... Fooled the Malaysians and got away with one of the biggest aviation mysteries of all time (at this present time)...

The point that I'm saying is that this is someone who knows he'll be watched when the flight is taken over... to prevent interception, he needs to fool them with something... And fooled them he did...

rcair1 · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:46 pm

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 222):
What would it take to conceal that the aircraft took off with higher fuel than documented? Who would have to be in on it, and how can this be done?

Fuelers - dispatcher - crew. Fuelers probably from a different company.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 222):
This could provide a lead to investigators.

As I stated, we have had no reports of any passengers cell phones connecting. Furthermore - at this point I can't credit a phone that was not turned off having any battery left.

With all respect - I was actually trying to stop the cell phone discussion.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 222):
The reason I ask is that if the SATCOMs were turned off much later

I do not know about seat back phones
Re: when SATCOMs were turned off- please read the sanity check carefully - you will find your answer there.

wingz · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:48 pm

Going back a bit here. I know we're no longer talking about the eye witness sighting of the burning aircraft by the oil rig worker (see esp post 22 in part 17). I have not been able to follow all the posts especially since then, but has there been any particular dismissal of his evidence? It did seem pretty plausible at the time. Here's a theory:

We have reports of wild altitude changes following loss of contact. Maybe struggles in the cockpit. Or a hijacker "grabbing" the contrrols. In high speed cruise at Mach .85 this is not a good thing. So what about an engine surge induced by the alpha (or even beta) swings? Plenty of flame likely. Maybe not for the 10-15 sec the oil worker reported, but who knows. Anyone got experience of this?

Andy33 · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:49 pm

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 222):
Does this plane have seatback telephones?

According to Malaysian Airlines website, their 777 fleet has satellite telephones installed in Business Class. About 20 threads back it was said that they, along with other IFE features can be turned off by crew.
We don't of course know whether this was done, and clarification of whether this could be done by the flight crew, the cabin crew, or either would be useful.

rcair1 · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:49 pm

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 226):
So where were the interceptors that fateful day in 2001?

Actually - they were up and flying, just not directed the right way. I think it was after the towers were hit but before the pentagon. Of course - today - it would be much different.

Also - of course - Malaysia has not be the target of a 9/11 type attack.
With all due respect to those who make fun of the paranoia of Americans post 9/11 (not meaning you mandala), it was an event that changed our perspective permanently - or at least generationally.

rcair1 · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:52 pm

Quoting wingz (Reply 228):
I have not been able to follow all the posts especially since then, but has there been any particular dismissal of his evidence?

Only that no wreckage was found and that the a/c flew for 7 more hours.
I'm not at all sure a surge/flameout would case a flame like what he reported - but I hardly am an expert on that.

flyenthu · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:53 pm

I am listing the different modes of possible communication from the aircraft. Please chime in for more modes:

1. ACARS Information (in cockpit)
2. ACARS Transmission (electronic bay outside cockpit)
3. Transponders (cockpit)
4. Emergency code key pad (cockpit)
5. Cockpit crew radios to communicate with ATC etc. for pilot (cockpit)
6. Cockpit crew radios to communicate with ATC etc. for copilot (cockpit)
7. Pax phones (cell, satellite) (outside cockpit)
9. Pax backseat phones (outside cockpit)
10. Cabin crew phones (cell, satellite) (outside cockpit)

However, although the plane kept flying for almost 7 hours beyond last deliberate communication from cockpit, the only communication received from the plane is #2 (ACARS pings). Does this tell us anything? Or, could this tell us anything?

[Edited 2014-03-16 10:55:12]

[Edited 2014-03-16 10:55:35]

Lindenwold · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:59 pm

How much info will we get from the black box if it is found? the last hour of it being in the air?

mandala499 · Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:59 pm

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 222):
Does this plane have seatback telephones?

If I remember correctly, yes.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 222):
The reason I ask is that if the SATCOMs were turned off much later, there can be some traces of phone attempts by passengers to indicate if there was struggle going on in the plane or not.

This can be deactivated with no problems...

BUT, bear in mind the SatCom we're talking about in the discussion is the antenna talking to the satellite keeping the link open but not sending any data that can be billed ("no data payload"). This, is a lot harder to switch off, you need to go into the cabin and opening up the ceiling.

But seatback satcom, you can shut it off from the galley and/or cockpit if I remember correctly.

---

The two possible paths stated by the authorities, could it be simply that they are identical, mirroring each other along the equator, because the satellite is on the equator... and they only have the ping response time hence can only calculate the distance, but not which hemisphere it's in? And the ring of 30deg elevation is probably the ring of "last position" only, not the path that it took.

I guess this should make it easier to calculate... and if only they can provide data on the distances they calculated...
*I wish!*

flyenthu · Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:00 pm

Quoting Lindenwold (Reply 233):
How much info will we get from the black box if it is found? the last hour of it being in the air?

Last 2 hrs for voice, but entire flight for data.

na · Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:02 pm

Every day there is a press conference, I have seen three now, and I am disappointed by the cleverness of the jounalists there who are not able at all to get more out of the officials than they are saying deliberately anyway.

Maybe we should collect questions that we would like to be asked tomorrow and which forces the officials to conclude more.
Let me start with three questions. Feel free to add. I think such a questionnaire catalogue makes sense.

1. ask the AF general: your radar supervisors, and that were more than one, and in different locations, saw an unknown flying object on the screens overflying Malaysia north of the capital. How did they react, what did they do? If they didnt react immediately, why?
2. ask the conference leader: who gave the last answer from the 777, "good night"? If he says we still dont know yet, again, ask him why the partners and family couldnt identify their husband, father, or son.
3. ask the leader: if MH went north and really reached the "Northern arc", it must have passed numerous (non-Malaysian) military radar installations. What do the respective countries say? Is there any country suspiciously not answering?

Tangowhisky · Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:02 pm

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 227):
at this point I can't credit a phone that was not turned off having any battery left.

With all respect - I was actually trying to stop the cell phone discussion.

Thank you for replying, and I am sorry to bring up the cell phones, but there are many angles to this subject that require thought.

Foremost, this seems to be a well planned hijacking. It must have crossed the hijacker(s) mind(s) that there could be cell phones that may have been left on (and many have batteries that last over 24 hours). If the final destination was a very remote location where there are no cell phone towers to roam, then no worries. But if this was an oversight where there are cellular coverage, my point is that the authorities are probably on top of this and trying to see if one of the 200 cell phones made a roaming connections? There are only about 20 or 30 countries to pursue this with. On the other hand, there could have been culprits in the cabin that collected and turned off every cell phone (as part of a very well planned hijacking).

On a separate note, I read in NYT that one of the passengers on board was a mechanic for the airline. He most certainly can be useful if the airplane was meant to land somewhere, only to be flown again.

ComeAndGo · Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:03 pm

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 230):
Actually - they were up and flying, just not directed the right way

Yes, but unarmed! They had not weapons and no rounds in the on board machine gun.

WingedMigrator · Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:07 pm

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 234):
The two possible paths stated by the authorities, could it be simply that they are identical, mirroring each other along the equator, because the satellite is on the equator... and they only have the ping response time hence can only calculate the distance, but not which hemisphere it's in? And the ring of 30deg elevation is probably the ring of "last position" only, not the path that it took.

That is precisely what they are, the locus of surface points at some distance from the satellite at one particular instant in time. The graphs seen before are annotated by satellite elevation as seen from the surface. Right below the satellite, elevation is 90 degrees (zenith).

We know that they have several such maps (one for each "ping") but we have only seen the very last one at 8:11 AM Malaysia time.

k83713 · Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:09 pm

Quoting Lindenwold (Reply 233):

Even that will be of value, to know if the plane ended up with no fuel, for instance, full pitch down or on the slow glide with flaps out. It certainly would give a lot of information in any case...

EVAAIRBR076 · Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:10 pm

I dont know if this reported already,but a dutch newspaper reports that a greek oiltanker spotted some debris and suitcases in the straight of malakka. Lets hope they can finally found something.

http://www.telegraaf.nl/buitenland/2...___Koffers_gevonden_in_zee___.html

mila · Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:10 pm

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 226):

I don't defend the US, but the tricky thing with 9/11 was that the airplane was in US airspace.

If a a/c would enter say Swedish airspace or probably any airspace in the Skandinavian/Baltic region it would be intercepted within 10-15 minutes.

This was a a/c that failed to handover from one ATC to another and disappeared and I have not read anything that anyone scrambled fighters to intercept so what did the military do because the a/c must have entered some airspace without permission I suppose or am I wrong?

For me that means the the military was sleeping on duty, the readiness is very low or the plane ditched right away.

rcair1 · Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:11 pm

Quoting flyenthu (Reply 232):
nly communication received from the plane is #2 (ACARS pings).

It is not ACARS pings - it is satcom pings. Details in .

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 206):
Sanity Check - 3/16/14 16:00 Zulu

--

Quoting flyenthu (Reply 232):
Does this tell us anything?

With the exception of cell phones - which probably would not work - all these can be disabled from the cockpit.
So all it tells us is:
- The cockpit was controlled.
or
- Everybody was out/dead (unlikely that the a/c would fly as seen tho).

[Edited 2014-03-16 11:26:36]

[Edited 2014-03-16 11:27:04]

AR385 · Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:12 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 200):
This might open the possibility of MH370 being hijacked by total noobs. First up to FL 450, down to FL 230, up to 295, and then cluelessly flying around until fuel runs out.

It could also mean the crew were fooling them about flying somewhere while they were actually staying in one place. The ET 767 Captain hugged the coast Africa for hours without the three drunks noticing so as to keep near to land.

nupogodi · Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:13 pm

Quoting mila (Reply 242):
so what did the military do because the a/c must have entered some airspace without permission I suppose or am I wrong?

They did. Their own.

Tangowhisky · Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:13 pm

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 234):
This can be deactivated with no problems...

Thanks mandala499. Do we know if this system was turned off as well (apologies if this was discussed)? I am assuming the pax SATCOM is different LRU than the one for the flight crew. What the authorities said or did not say about this system can be food for thought about the planning details, some slips in planning, or if a few calls were made prior to it being shut down. All this can reveal if and when the passengers found out that something was wrong.

DeltaMD90 · Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:13 pm

Quoting EVAAIRBR076 (Reply 241):

Did you even look at the past 30 or so replies??? Don't have to look at every post in every thread but at least use CTRL F and look at what people were talking about 30 minutes ago

Thunderboltdrgn · Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:14 pm

Quoting EVAAIRBR076 (Reply 241):
I dont know if this reported already,but a dutch newspaper reports that a greek oiltanker spotted some debris and suitcases in the straight of malakka. Lets hope they can finally found something.

It has, see reply #198 and #202 in this thread.

It was concluded that there weren't any possible aircraft debris at that location.

EVAAIRBR076 · Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:17 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 247):

Well excuse me, by the time i post something mean while more posts are added between typing and posting. And i do read all the posts, from the damn first part already. Every morning when i wake up the first thing i do is read all the post in hope the found something.

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