Quoting flood (Reply 45): Area search chart released by AMSA:

Thanks much for the maps, flood.

It sounded like the search area has been reduced to China & Kazakhstan, in addition to the India Ocean, based on the press conference. Based on the map provided by the Australian Government & the comments at the press conference, I've approximated search area in the north. Map attached. (very rough estimation)

Very interesting Australian press conference. Shmendr has done approx mirror image of Aussie search area but would be good if someone could do an accurate mirror image of both the area and two potential tracks, adjusting for sea currents and wind (press conference said that the southern area included those adjustments, but obviously they wouldn't apply to northern area).

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 50):

Also true, thanks.

I haven't seen any mention of this here, and I have searched the last couple threads, so forgive me if this is old news.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/18/wo...a/malaysia-airlines-flight.html?hp

NYT is saying that the route was altered via the FMC. How they know that information, or indeed how they COULD know that information, is entirely beyond me.

EDIT: It occurs to me that it is obvious that the waypoints the plane used to cross the Malacca Straits would have to be entered into the FMC or flown manually via the map with waypoints showing, so yes, of course the FMC would be used to be reprogrammed.

The NYT article above seems to be saying that there is direct evidence that the FMC was used to program these waypoints. The wording is not crystal-clear, but that is how I interpret it after reading it several times.

[Edited 2014-03-18 03:44:53]

Quoting flood (Reply 45): Area search chart released by AMSA:

This is completly ridiculous, it makes no sense that MH370 would be down there.

The other pings were captured by more than one sattilite, just triangulate and that will debunk this stupid southern search once and for all..

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 55): The other pings were captured by more than one sattilite, just triangulate and that will debunk this stupid southern search once and for all..

Yes, you certainly have better access to privileged, highly complex information, and are better at analyzing it, than the SAR faculties of some couple dozen nations. Well done!

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 55): This is completly ridiculous, it makes no sense that MH370 would be down there. The other pings were captured by more than one sattilite, just triangulate and that will debunk this stupid southern search once and for all..

Why does it make no sense? And the evidence for more than one satellite?

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 55): This is completly ridiculous, it makes no sense that MH370 would be down there.

Assuming that.....?

Since no-one knows what happened in the plane, no-one can say where it was sensible for it to be. It could be everyone on the plane was dead and it had been programmed to fly south until it ran out of fuel. Or someone was heading for Australia and got lost.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 55): This is completly ridiculous, it makes no sense that MH370 would be down there. The other pings were captured by more than one sattilite, just triangulate and that will debunk this stupid southern search once and for all..

It makes perfect sense compared to all the silly theories about the aircraft shadowing other flight to stay off radar & then landing somewhere without anyone noticing anything during all these days.

Only southern route really makes some sense as one could just fly there without having to do too much of fancy stuff to avoid radar contact.

[Edited 2014-03-18 03:55:18]

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 25): To clarify, this kind of title is common in many countries in East and Southeast Asia.

I know when I was young (really young) our neighbours were nicknamed auntie such and such.

Quoting hamiltondaniel (Reply 54): NYT is saying that the route was altered via the FMC. How they know that information, or indeed how they COULD know that information, is entirely beyond me.

I think it was mentioned in part 33, that the points they tracked it to matched known way-points, and that a human pilot couldn't hit them all perfectly or something.

If China is searching their own territory for MH370, what does that say about the effectiveness of their air defence system? Ok, its the remote parts in the Southwest, but still telling.

One winner in this whole tragedy is clear, the manufacturers of (military) radar systems. A number of countries might be obliged to install new, more effective systems.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 55):

Don't start religious war with such strong claims!   no, honestly, with the amount of information we have it's not far away from superstitious beliefs which arc prevails...

Did the Malaysia military radar track not record MH370 hitting way points in the Malacca strait flying north?
(as discussed in the Keith Ledgerwood article http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/po...es-370-disappear-using-sia68-sq68)

I guess these are quite low confidence given all the searching on the South route?

Quoting SamH123 (Reply 63): track not record

How are you differentiating the two?

Quoting SamH123 (Reply 63): I guess these are quite low confidence given all the searching on the South route?

One should think so, but the supposed route is zigzagging a bit and probably not really trustworthy.

Quoting k83713 (Reply 44): Thanks for interesting link indeed. In relation to P-3 it's explained that it looks for metallic parts in the ocean. Modern airplane has in fact very few steel parts, but mainly aluminum and carbon fiber. What's the use then or it's capable to detect Al as well?

The Australian AP-3Cs are heavily modified P3 making them more of a C3ISTAR platform, they can detect very small surface targets at some range (like debris), as well as deploying sensors to listen for underwater locator beacons that are located on aircraft data recorders (these have a very limited range). They have very capable onboard processing of the information gathered, they can also transmit information elsewhere for further data analysis. The can also work with other airborne, surface, and below surface assets which may or may not already be in the area.

Australia has had detachments of P-3s in Butterworth for over 30 years, Malaysia and Australia have a very good relationship on the surveillance front, and understand their capabilities.

Quoting na (Reply 65): One should think so, but the supposed route is zigzagging a bit and probably not really trustworthy.

well if you look at it, perhaps didn't pass both VAMPI and GIVAL (red lroute) but rather
one of them or in the middle of them (blue route) ? But this still returned a radar contact
for both waypoints? I don't know how accurate the radars are.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 55): This is completly ridiculous, it makes no sense that MH370 would be down there. The other pings were captured by more than one sattilite, just triangulate and that will debunk this stupid southern search once and for all..

I feel the same, although I wouldn't be so sharp on something I don't have the absolutely certainty, especially when searching for missing people.

I think I share with you the concern about that search area (besides much less probable IMHO), is not preventing any of the posible next and HUGE threats, if there would be any, as opposite as search in the northern option

[Edited 2014-03-18 04:17:16]

Quoting hamiltondaniel (Reply 54): NYT is saying that the route was altered via the FMC. How they know that information, or indeed how they COULD know that information, is entirely beyond me.

Depends on how they are linked to to ATC, if via ADS, that gives ATC the last, and next two waypoints from the FMC.

Quoting zeke (Reply 66):

Thank you. How do you listen underwater beacon from the plane though? Range of those beacons detection in water is 3 km appr, and with airborne sensor you still above the actual medium where soundwave goes.

[Edited 2014-03-18 04:19:57]

[Edited 2014-03-18 04:20:56]

[Edited 2014-03-18 04:23:26]

Read every reply so far and I'm a slow reader. throwing my speculation as to why in a couple of different perspectives... here we go...

*****SPECULATION*****

If this indeed has been carried out by the Captain or flight deck as a whole, the entire point could have been to provide worldwide proof of the relative incompetence of the Malaysian govt. I know others have alluded as such as well. The only thing that gets me with this is that if it was the intent and he/they did use their knowledge of radar shortcomings and weaknesses, what would lead him to put it down in the ocean and likely with some or all fatalities? or even down on land somewhere with no/little most on board as casualties? i guess if this is the case it might never be known.... unless there are indeed survivors recovered.

if this has been done with malicious intent and it is indeed hidden on land for a future attack, i am wondering about those 20 employees. i have tried to follow the tracking of them on these threads and from what i have seen they were ruled out as people who could do something with weapons (feel free to correct me, it would help me follow better), but could they have the knowledge to make said 777 an enormous drone? if so this would be my speculative "it could happen" scenario... fair warning, it is grim... Finding a nuclear device would likely have happened already for this silent faction. They dont need it to be large, just with a legitimate punch (its not about the known nuclear devices on earth, its that one we dont know about that scares me). Device placed in 777 and aircraft is filled and topped off with fuel somehow (hey they pulled the rest of it off so far, why not!?) and bodies of deceased placed in aircraft as well. Drone 777 is flown and attempts to get through any major areas airspace. If this is accomplished they dont need to crash it into anything... they just need to get it close to the main sector of a power grid and detonate and the EMP would take care of their intent, in the process eliminating all evidence, or most all of it.

i know to penetrate far enough is not likely, but if it got that far I'd say their chances were greater than most. My thought's since these other plausible scenarios emerged is not a massive missile with the aircraft, but rather a vessel to carry a small yet effective EMP. This would be a fail safe, if you will, that you wouldn't have to be on target, just close enough and airborne, not even needing to crash to the ground. Taking out the power grid and comms of a civilized nation/continental district even would likely cause more terror and mayhem than we would know what to do with at the time.

*****END SPECULATION*****

I personally would like to see the happiest ending possible where the pilot accomplished his task, landed safely in some remote area where it is rather barren, but still close enough and in the open to be found before the planes rations or locations resources could be depleted to cause malnutrition related deaths. But in reality I am just hoping for closure in one way or another for the families of those on board.

Edit to add: I know it's not likely in my speculation, but nothing seems very likely at this point.

Regards,
Pohakuloa

[Edited 2014-03-18 04:21:54]

Quoting SamH123 (Reply 63): I guess these are quite low confidence given all the searching on the South route?

Don't think that follows. Southern option is being searched (a) because we can, given that only the Chinese can search the northern equivalent area, and (b) to try and exclude it as an option.

I've tried to reflect the southern search area into the north but have been defeated by not having the graphics s/w to hand to compensate for different map projections. Be good if someone better equipped can do that.

Has there been any word from Thailand as to whether they tracked the plane at all? According to this blog, they have highly capable radars (http://alert5.com/2014/03/17/three-rtaf-air-defense-radars-that-could-have-seen-mh370/) that cover the presumed route as it headed NW toward the Andaman's from the last know position picked up by the Malaysians. India and Indonesia are reported to have said nothing, although in the case of India their radars on the Andamans are only used on an as needed basis, so they could easily have missed something. But I don't recall anything from the Thais.

Quoting Pohakuloa (Reply 71): but could they have the knowledge to make said 777 an enormous drone

Possibly we need a parallel thread for the Iron Man / Avengers Assemble type theories  

Quoting k83713 (Reply 70): How do you listen underwater beacon from the plane though?

They deploy a network of sensors (directional frequency analysis and recording sonobuoy) into the water over an area that have the capability to "listen" for the underwater locator beacon. Those sensors have the ability to transmit the data to the AP-3Cs, P-8s, and E7-A as well as to satellites for further signal processing.

The sensors provide more than just the underwater sounds (which include sounds inaudible to humans like the locator beacons), they can give other environmental measurements like temperatures, sea state, underwater layers, and their movement can be tracked to determine currents.

Quoting nakb (Reply 74):

Exactly   but even if serious, why not to steal a cargo jet then without world attention to the fate of passengers?

Quoting iberiadc852 (Reply 68): I think I share with you the concern about that search area (besides much less probable IMHO), is not preventing any of the posible next and HUGE threats, if there would be any, as opposite as search in the northern option

If some group was capable enough of hijacking & landing the 777 in one piece somewhere, don't you seriously think they wouldn't hide the aircraft so well that search efforts wouldn't find anything?

If the aircraft indeed went North and landed somewhere intact by now it will be so well hidden that air searches would be useless. If they find something from north it will be a wreckage, not a flyable aircraft.

Every day it's becoming less likely the aircraft is still in one piece somewhere. If it was it would have been used already, waiting would only increase their risks of getting caught.

Just found this;

Quote: "MH370 – Airports in flight range on Google Earth" Over the weekend, several initiatives mapped airports that could serve as potential landing spots for missing Malaysian Airlines flight MH370. WNYC first mapped large airports within MH370′s flight range onto Google Maps; then David Strip used data from OurAirports to cast a wider net of potential landing spots and put that in Google Maps.

http://ogleearth.com/2014/03/mh370-a...s-in-flight-range-on-google-earth/

Quoting k83713 (Reply 76): Exactly but even if serious, why not to steal a cargo jet then without world attention to the fate of passengers?

I'm guessing it is because none had the range of this 777. NYC?

Quoting Pohakuloa (Reply 71): if this has been done with malicious intent and it is indeed hidden on land for a future attack, i am wondering about those 20 employees. i have tried to follow the tracking of them on these threads and from what i have seen they were ruled out as people who could do something with weapons (feel free to correct me, it would help me follow better), but could they have the knowledge to make said 777 an enormous drone? if so this would be my speculative "it could happen" scenario... fair warning, it is grim... Finding a nuclear device would likely have happened already for this silent faction. They dont need it to be large, just with a legitimate punch (its not about the known nuclear devices on earth, its that one we dont know about that scares me). Device placed in 777 and aircraft is filled and topped off with fuel somehow (hey they pulled the rest of it off so far, why not!?) and bodies of deceased placed in aircraft as well. Drone 777 is flown and attempts to get through any major areas airspace. If this is accomplished they dont need to crash it into anything... they just need to get it close to the main sector of a power grid and detonate and the EMP would take care of their intent, in the process eliminating all evidence, or most all of it.

The only argument I'm going to make is to say that there seems to be no shortage of people willing to die for the cause, so making it into a drone seems unnecessary.

This plane is/was in Afghanistan/Pakistan IMHO.

Quoting zeke (Reply 75):

Are those sensors reusable? Must be very expensive if not - you dropped it and then you have to cover next field, but to collect it from the aircraft is not possiblle...

[Edited 2014-03-18 04:54:15]

Quoting zeke (Reply 69): Depends on how they are linked to to ATC, if via ADS, that gives ATC the last, and next two waypoints from the FMC.

Wow, did not know this capability existed! If that is indeed where NYT got that, that would be a pretty huge slip-up on the part of the pilot/s/hijacker/s, no? Revealing where they were headed before turning off the transponder?

Poorly written article, but I agree with the concerns...

http://www.saharasamay.com/world-new...an-controlled-afghan-pakistan.html

A Taliban spokesperson denies they have the plane...which is worth what exactly?

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/...jack-missing-Malaysia-Airlines-jet

Quoting k83713 (Reply 76): Exactly   but even if serious, why not to steal a cargo jet then without world attention to the fate of passengers?

Maybe a cargo jet would be much harder to steal - how are you meant to get on one if you are not a pilot? (I am no expert though)

Quoting enilria (Reply 79):

I don't think so. Range is not the issue here, since in any kind of plane you will go through the same radar scan of airspace, either it took off 1000 nm before or 7000 nm before...I think we will witness a lot of changes to toughen sky awareness now, especially if MH is not found.

Quoting pvjin (Reply 77): If some group was capable enough of hijacking & landing the 777 in one piece somewhere, don't you seriously think they wouldn't hide the aircraft so well that search efforts wouldn't find anything?

So, if that is the case, we could only await the fate of where they will throw it as a weapon?

Quoting pvjin (Reply 77): If the aircraft indeed went North and landed somewhere intact by now it will be so well hidden that air searches would be useless. If they find something from north it will be a wreckage, not a flyable aircraft.

They would have to deploy it in a sort of runway to take it off. Besides, it should be stored under a 70 x 70 m. in the best of cases, not too far to that runway.

Quoting pvjin (Reply 77): Every day it's becoming less likely the aircraft is still in one piece somewhere. If it was it would have been used already, waiting would only increase their risks of getting caught.

Wasn't it so useless to try to discover and catch them?. So we shouldn't be in a hurry to try to find them if they are terrorists and are alive, but still, they would have used already the aircraft, regardless of their evil possibilities, because the risks of getting caught?. I don't understand.

Quoting enilria (Reply 79): This plane is/was in Afghanistan/Pakistan IMHO.

You mean, were the US has so many radar installations and military? Sure...

Quote: Rather than manually operating the plane’s controls, whoever altered Flight 370’s path typed seven or eight keystrokes into a computer situated between the captain and the co-pilot, according to officials. The computer is called the Flight Management System. It directs the plane from point to point specified in the flight plan submitted before a flight. It is not clear whether the plane’s path was reprogrammed before or after it took off, the Times said.

http://news.yahoo.com/malaysia-plane...ed-cockpit-computer-062047053.html

Another report about an entry into the computer...

Quoting LH526 (Reply 86): In case of a deliberate murder of the pax & crew in the cabin by a suicidal cockpit crew member and given the amount of portable oxygen masks and axes oonboard, what are the chances of a group of 2-3 people entering the cockpit (with oxygen to breathe and enough force from the axes) in order to regain control over the aircraft?

Most likely the passengers and cabin crew would perceive the situation as an emergency and would stay on their seats, provided that the other pilot is incapacitated in the cockpit. They would have no reason to believe that the situation is something else than an emergency until it is way too late.

Quoting stealthz (Reply 37): Considering their resources the US is a minor player in this effort

US could ramp up its resources considerably, but we have a "leak" problem.

Every blogger tweeting "my source said ..." within minutes of a supposed to be confidential briefing took toll on Malaysia-USA trust. That's the reason USA has to scale back.

It is good to have sources in high places, journalists/bloggers have to publish just enough to lead the story, and not quote minutes of the meeting. With 11+ countries involved there absolute no need to say "my source said % probability this will never be found". It doesn't serve any purpose.

Have any other the other 6 or 7 satellite ping distance circles been plotted? I've only seen the last one. It might be useful to have a map of all satellite distance circles, plus the radar track from Thailand and Malaysia.

Just to go back to some earlier posts in earlier threads with the possibility that it may have been landed somewhere well in the last couple of days ANA landed a 77W at Wellington NZ (I think that the code is WGN) on Monday and today took off again using just over half of the runway length. OK it was carrying a "delegation" so not a full pax and cargo load and on landing without a doubt had a light fuel load (direct from Tokyo to Wellywood). However what was in the news over it did not state the size of said "delegation" nor if the flight out was "Direct" back to point of origin. Air NZ have also landed a 77W on that short runway which I believe was the black one ZK-OKQ. Now having grown up there and now living in the land of Oz given that I have done FIFO work here most mine site and provincial runways here are about the same length yet I forget the figures. Perhaps a more learned member can help here.

The link to the vid of it taking off is here http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post...840928/Delegation-flies-out-on-777 and from that you should be able to find the footage of it landing. I do actually remember when Qantas landed the 74SP there for the first time. It was a family day out and I'm in the photo of that event which appears on this site.

Just a bit of food for thought as we really do not know what has happened. Where it has ended up nor the fate of those on board. I'm not really sure that we will know this yet I am sure that there is something sinister afoot

Quoting k83713 (Reply 80): Are those sensors reusable? Must be very expensive if not - you dropped it and then you have to cover next field, but to collect it from the aircraft is not possiblle...

I don't beleive that they are reusable - ASW planes in the 70s and 80s used to carry loads of them ready to dump into the see

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 55): The other pings were captured by more than one sattilite, just triangulate and that will debunk this stupid southern search once and for all..

The antenna locks onto 1 satellite only, and goes on a frequency unique to that satellite, this is unless it is being handed over to the next satellite. The satellite in question is Inmarsat's 3rd Generation L-band Satellite (not the 4th), 1 satellite covers 1/3 of the world, and there are 3... so unless you're at the very edge of the coverage, you wouldn't get handed off, and the next satellite won't hear you. Also bear in mind that that the antenna does not make an omnidirectional transmission, it steers its beam electronically. So, if you don't beam it to a satellite, no one's going to hear your "ping". The reason why the beam is steered is to increase spectrum bandwidth capacity.

Quoting k83713 (Reply 70): Thank you. How do you listen underwater beacon from the plane though? Range of those beacons detection in water is 3 km appr, and with airborne sensor you still above the actual medium where soundwave goes.

Sonobuoy listens to the sounds in the water, it processes the data, transmits it electronically to the airplane on it's pre-set numbers of communications channel(s). Yes, they're not exactly cheap... but not too expensive either.

Quoting k83713 (Reply 76): why not to steal a cargo jet then without world attention to the fate of passengers?

Coz you won't get attention for it!

Quoting laddb (Reply 91): It might be useful to have a map of all satellite distance circles, plus the radar track from Thailand and Malaysia.

Yes. Perhaps you'll arrange that for us, then?  

Quoting cbrboy (Reply 95): Yes. Perhaps you'll arrange that for us, then?

I was being sarcastic because I don't think the information has been released and was just wondering why not.

Just one thing I don´t understand (and couldn´t find an answer yet):

why is it even possible on a civilian airliner to shut down every communication device?
shouldn´t it be mandatory for every civilian ailiner to have at least one device that permanently sends gps data (f.e. while engines running or if not on ground) an cannot switched of by someone inside the plane?

I suspect that for emergency reasons pretty much every non-essential on-board system has to be able to be shutdown.

Quoting haddock0815 (Reply 97):

Seems like because no one expected someone wants to vanish in the airplane like that. I compare this situation with software development, when you test the program for holes and when you expose them, you patch it. In this case someone literally hacked security of civilian aviation, so definitely there will be a lot of questions posed like the one you asked.

Quoting laddb (Reply 96): I was being sarcastic because I don't think the information has been released and was just wondering why not.

I'd say there's a combination of factors at work. Other countries not wanting to publicly release information that they have passed to Malaysia, who are leading the search and the public communication. Malaysia having a culture of official secrecy. Other countries not telling the public or Malaysia what they know due to the information revealing military capability or intelligence gathering methods.

Reply 94 above explains why triangulation isn't possible for individual Inmarsat pings from the aircraft. You would think that the six or seven pings after the last voice communication could each be plotted as semi-circles on the map to give two possible routes which could be checked out further for other observations. More than likely this has been done but the public not told.