I'd also suspect that there needs to be a manual override to basically every piece of equipment in the case of an unexpected emergency, malfunction, what have you.

Quoting cbrboy (Reply 95): Coz you won't get attention for it!

mandala you are exactly right. I have been following your posts and every post on this subject. I have also discussed this subject with my father at length who while he is into his 70s is ex "Special forces" (before I was born) and also an flight engineer (he was the one that spotted the Australian flag on tail of New Zealands first 737). And also with some pilot friends. We are of the opinion that this has been planned for a very long time and we will see MRO again as has been previously mentioned as a "Bomb" . The 777 is not like a car where it can be stolen and "Rebirthed" . You probably can hide one for a while but someone is going to notice it as while it is not found yet the world is not that big. I hope and pray that it is found soon not so we know where it is and what happened but so the families of the souls on board may have closure. I do not believe that the pax and cabin crew are alive as the "Climb" that has been mentioned in the media in my mind is to make sure that they were finished off.

I have to chime in about the radar coverage talk regarding the northern arc.

As a pilot I often fly trough the airspace of asia (for example: Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, China, Thailand, Malaisia, ... ). A lot of these times my aircraft is not under radar control. At least the controller is behaving in a way, that suggests that he has no radar. The term "under radar contact" is seldom used on these routes. Sometimes even, it is difficult to establish R/T communication with some of the countries mentioned above. VHF, HF or CPDLC is not working reliable. So you end up flying trough countries airspaces not talking to the respective controller at all.

There is also an IFBP (Inflight Broadcasting Procedure) installed for the myanmar airspace. This might be a hint of the qualitiy of their airspace control or the lack of it.

All those countries may have radar. But who is allowed to use this information? Civil ATC? Military ATC? To me it looks like that the civil controllers have no or only a partial radar at their convenience.

The military might have radar for different "applications". But is it switched on all the time? We are not really at the brink of a war. The India-Pakistan border however might be something else, but this is far away of where MH370 was seen last.
So, is the regular scanning (24/7) of all the countries airspace and their borders really necessary? It costs money and is boring and exausting especially during night time. I don't expect people sitting in front of their "boring" screen 356 days a year and still be highly alert.
We learned for example, that the Andaman radar is only used sometimes.

Quoting pvjin (Reply 59): Only southern route really makes some sense as one could just fly there without having to do too much of fancy stuff to avoid radar contact.

They did fancy stuff to avoid malaysian radar, did't they? They used the cover of the night to fool the radar operators in malaysia. This might have worked with other countries operators (if there are any) as well. No one knew, that there is an aircraft missing that night!

Up north the aircraft had the possibility to use radar shadows from the himalayan mountains. In the mountainous southern part of china is no radar controll for civil aircraft. The airway L888 is controlled with CPDLC. They might have military radar in the himalayans, but it might be severly affected by the mountains.

Quoting na (Reply 65): One should think so, but the supposed route is zigzagging a bit and probably not really trustworthy

Quoting thunderboltdrgn (Reply 67): well if you look at it, perhaps didn't pass both VAMPI and GIVAL (red lroute) but rather one of them or in the middle of them (blue route) ? But this still returned a radar contact for both waypoints? I don't know how accurate the radars are.

I don't think they actually overflew those waypoints. I understood that they where heading towards them and turning to the next suitable waypoint before reaching it. Like Thunderbolt has it on its map. Thanks for that.

Quoting slinky09 (Reply 73): Has there been any word from Thailand as to whether they tracked the plane at all? According to this blog, they have highly capable radars (http://alert5.com/2014/03/17/three-rtaf-air-defense-radars-that-could-have-seen-mh370/) that cover the presumed route as it headed NW toward the Andaman's from the last know position picked up by the Malaysians. India and Indonesia are reported to have said nothing, although in the case of India their radars on the Andamans are only used on an as needed basis, so they could easily have missed something. But I don't recall anything from the Thais.

It might be embarrassing to admit that they havn't been watching their radar closely?

Quoting k83713 (Reply 76): Exactly but even if serious, why not to steal a cargo jet then without world attention to the fate of passengers?

"Stealing" a jet on ground is suspicious at least. "Stealing" a passenger aircraft like MH370 is confusing at it's best. It also might be a clue, that the hijackers have been some of passengers and not the pilots as there are no passengers on cargo planes.


I have written the radar stuff solely based on my day to day operation experience in those airspaces and drew a few conclusions. To me, the northern arc is not out of question as suggested by some.

[Edited 2014-03-18 06:41:55]

A few things that concern me.

1. If any member of the crew were flying the aircraft deep into the flight then it should be assumed that there was an attempt to land. The assumption that they ran out of fuel fails logic. If they planned to ditch the plane somewhere, it is highly unlikely to have occurred as a result of running out of fuel.

2. The longer looking for the plane the longer this remains a news item. Any way you look at this the aircraft has been hidden. Whether in the sea or on land, the location is intentional.

3. The suggestions that the aircraft was flown to 45,000 ft to kill passengers makes no sense. venting the cabin at 36,000 ft would incapacitate the passengers slowly and effectively. No need to fly to 45,000 to do this.

4. I question the ability to get to 45,000 feet within the first two hours of flight. Given the fuel load and weight of an aircraft that also had cargo on board I believe that getting that high was next to impossible.

5. A struggle resulting a climb to 45,000 ft would have surely resulted in the break-up of the flight from over speed or stall on the decent and precluded flying for many hours more. (any climg above 40,000ft would have to be controlled and calculated or the plane would become damaged) It was reported that the decent was at 40,000 fpm. I do not believe anything other than a fighter could keep its control surfaces intact and the pull out would over-G the aircraft so severely that it would break up.

6. Radar from India, Pakistan, Western China. Given how hard it was for Malaysia to track this airplane on radar, why should we assume that other third world countries would have picked this up so easily, especially if it was simply flying a standard commercial route. Any chance it just fell through the cracks as it did flying across Malaysia and Thailand?

7. The crew has the knowledge to know fuel burn, routings, radar, flight characteristics, etc.
Any failure to reach destination could be a result of:
a. an internal struggle to get the plane back.
b. intent not to be found to keep this in the news as long as possible.

8. If you suspect the crew or a member of the crew taking over the flight then looking on land makes the most sense. I base this on the fact that both pilots had the expertise to fly the B777 to wherever they desired.

Thx.
BR

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 93): I don't beleive that they are reusable - ASW planes in the 70s and 80s used to carry loads of them ready to dump into the see

Most of the buoys are not reusable. The ones that just listen and not ping are relatively in-expensive. I am told that there are places in the ocean where these buoys tends to collect if you do want to try to retrieve one.

Quoting billreid (Reply 104): 6. Radar from India, Pakistan, Western China. Given how hard it was for Malaysia to track this airplane on radar, why should we assume that other third world countries would have picked this up so easily, especially if it was simply flying a standard commercial route. Any chance it just fell through the cracks as it did flying across Malaysia and Thailand?

Nice! I feel like that this good explanation is making my previous post far to complicated to read.  

edit: spelling

[Edited 2014-03-18 06:40:30]

Quoting laddb (Reply 91): It might be useful to have a map of all satellite distance circles, plus the radar track from Thailand and Malaysia

Not on a single map but sanity checks by rcair1 has INMARSAT IOR coverage map and I believe socalgeo posted radar coverage maps.

Quoting Kelloggs (Reply 102): We are of the opinion that this has been planned for a very long time and we will see MRO again as has been previously mentioned as a "Bomb" . The 777 is not like a car where it can be stolen and "Rebirthed" . You probably can hide one for a while but someone is going to notice it as while it is not found yet the world is not that big. I hope and pray that it is found soon not so we know where it is and what happened but so the families of the souls on board may have closure. I do not believe that the pax and cabin crew are alive as the "Climb" that has been mentioned in the media in my mind is to make sure that they were finished off.

The more time that goes by, the more I am leaning in this direction as well, sadly. It makes my heart ache to think what end the passengers and crew may have met.

Quoting michi (Reply 106): Nice! I feel like that this good explanation is making my previos post far to complicated to read.

We have a tendency to over complicate things.
I believe strongly on Ockhams Razor, the simplest solution is generally the correct one.
Given that do you believe the T7 is in the sea, or has been landed?
What makes the most sense? It is not what we want to believe, it is what makes the most sense given what little we know.

Quoting billreid (Reply 104): 2. The longer looking for the plane the longer this remains a news item. Any way you look at this the aircraft has been hidden. Whether in the sea or on land, the location is intentional.

I'll call false on this statement. I cannot imagine any malevolent party wanting to intentionally 'hide' a T7 at sea.   

[Edited 2014-03-18 06:50:30]

Quoting thunderboltdrgn (Reply 78):

I bet spy satellites have scanned all possible airports to hide a T7 by now.

Since some nations are looking for the Aircraft 3500km off the coast of Australia, the Chinesse in mainland China and others in the Andaman sea....goes to prove they don't have a solid evidence where the flight went to....

Sad. back to square one... ( I have even read about aliens involved, hollow earth inhabitants stealing the plane...time to put a tin foil hat on!)

TRB

I start to believe that some governments are embarrassed to tell the world that they missed this airplane sneaking through their radars, and not to jeopardize their security, they just denied they saw anything

In light of the latest batch of information on MH370 (different timeline), does Chris Goodfellows analysis on Google+ hold any water?

Quote: Get on Google Earth and type in Pulau Langkawi and then look at it in relation to the radar track heading. 2+2=4 That for me is the simple explanation why it turned and headed in that direction. Smart pilot. Just didn't have the time.

Quoting capri (Reply 112): I start to believe that some governments are embarrassed to tell the world that they missed this airplane sneaking through their radars, and not to jeopardize their security, they just denied they saw anything

Exactly what I posted in about Part Fifteen as an additional possibility to the list of reasons why Malaysian authorities are looking so incapable. They COULD be 'hiding something', I suppose, if you want to believe that.....but my gut feeling tells me that the more likely (requiring the least leap of faith) explanation for their poor handling of the situation (and any other country this flight flew over) is that their governments are very reluctant to show to the world how little control/awareness they have of their own airspaces. Almost none, I would bet, in the case of Malaysia.

[Edited 2014-03-18 07:00:37]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26609687


Which theory you think stands out the most????

mine will be sneaking through Burma, flying on "HANDOFF" lines/borders between countries to throw radars off thinking it's the other's responsibility to check

Quoting GSPSPOT (Reply 108): The more time that goes by, the more I am leaning in this direction as well, sadly. It makes my heart ache to think what end the passengers and crew may have met.

From my experience with mine site flights they will have had no idea. They will have merely gone to sleep. I often wondered why on the fly in and fly out days why when we got to cruise almost the whole cabin "Nodded off" self included. So during a BBQ at home I asked a Pilot friend. "Oh health and saftey for us" me "Meaning?" "oh well you lot are either hung over on the way in or drunk and rowdy on the way out , we want to put you to sleep so we can do our jobs and not worry about some unruly idiot". While I do agree I like to read my book. So this is quite possibly how the cabin was subdued and why it went upto 45k. just to be sure. One can only speculate and the more that I do I'm sure that I knew and worked with a guy on that flight.

Quoting k83713 (Reply 70): Thank you. How do you listen underwater beacon from the plane though? Range of those beacons detection in water is 3 km appr, and with airborne sensor you still above the actual medium where soundwave goes.

People have expounded on how you can listen to an underwater beacon from an airplane.

The range of the actual beacon and detection depends on a lot of factors really. You can be right on top of the underwater beacon and not hear it at all, and simultaneously a ship more than a 1000 miles away can hear the beacon. It all depends on the local speed of sound, and sound propagation characteristics and the path the sound took to get to your receiver/sonobuoy/towed array.

Since we are listening for an active emitter from the data recorder, in addition to the path the sound took to get to the receiver, it is also dependent on the amount of power output by the underwater beacon, which I assume deteriorates as time goes on.

Most sonars are not optimized to receive the frequency the underwater beacon is emitting.

Quoting Trin (Reply 110): I'll call false on this statement. I cannot imagine any malevolent party wanting to intentionally 'hide' a T7 at sea.

Not what I meant. I was refering to the possibility that crashing it into a hidden location would ensure this remained in the news longer than a simple suicide crash 100 miles from Malaysia. If the operator knowingly hid the aircraft then he could have done so simply maintain longer news coverage.

Quoting capri (Reply 112): I start to believe that some governments are embarrassed to tell the world that they missed this airplane sneaking through their radars, and not to jeopardize their security, they just denied they saw anything

Agree 100%, including China, Russia and the USA.

Quoting TheRedBAron (Reply 111): I bet spy satellites have scanned all possible airports to hide a T7 by now.

I agree but if you are working with others, is it nor possible to hide a 200ft plane through use of camoflage, tarp, banches, etc. It was done during WWII to hide bombers on the ground, why not again?

Quoting woodreau (Reply 117):

Thank you. By the way, doesn't it seem reasonable to implement a system in FDR, which on immersion will release a floating beacon to emit signal on water surface ELT - style?

Quoting laddb (Reply 96): I was being sarcastic because I don't think the information has been released and was just wondering why not.

Do you seriously expect Malaysia and Thailand to release radar data from their military air defense radars? That strikes me as unlikely.

Quoting billreid (Reply 118): It was done during WWII to hide bombers on the ground, why not again?

Correct and all they need is a and pardon my french a "computer nerd" to totally mask it this day and age. Gone are the days of the "inflatable tank"

The more I post on this the more that I'm sure that I worked with one of the pax on board. Not going to mention his name but he was going to Mongolia for work

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 120): Do you seriously expect Malaysia and Thailand to release radar data from their military air defense radars? That strikes me as unlikely.

Nobody is asking them to give the full technical details on their radar installations, just what they might have seen. It's not like anyone will be surprised they actually do have radar so why keep potential relevant data hidden?

Quoting Kelloggs (Reply 121): The more I post on this the more that I'm sure that I worked with one of the pax on board. Not going to mention his name but he was going to Mongolia for work

Are you expecting the authorities to visit you soon?
Have you discussed this with the authorities?
I believe we (posters on A.net) are being monitored by the powers to be for clues.

The one thing that has been in my mind since this all started and please tell me what has been said about this is if the plane were hijacked or just taken. What did they do with the 200 plus people on board that have not tried to contact anybody or are they all in on the conspiracy? Sorry, I have not had time to read through every post or thread for that matter so any comments please leave out the hyperbole and the more far fetched ones if you don't mind. Or just give me the post that has such a summary of theories which I am sure has been done to death but as I said I would like just to see an executive summary of theories of what is the most probable situation.

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 120): Do you seriously expect Malaysia and Thailand to release radar data from their military air defense radars?

Malaysia already has given it at least to the US and China.

Quoting Kelloggs (Reply 121):

There was one guy fitting the description. It was reported in local news. Will look up for link. Meanwhile, guys, is it true that the will be amber lighting flash in the plane in case of emergency?

Quoting billreid (Reply 109): It is not what we want to believe, it is what makes the most sense given what little we know.

We know so little that virtually nothing makes sense.

Quoting billreid (Reply 123): Are you expecting the authorities to visit you soon? Have you discussed this with the authorities? I believe we (posters on A.net) are being monitored by the powers to be for clues.

No

Paul was a good guy and talking about a job in monngolia. We on our crew said "Yes go for it" and hoped the same would come to us. At the same time I have gotten out of the trade that I was in and moved on. And I am sure without a doubt that A.net is being monitored as I've had a hard time posting yet some of the mods can say that I've tried to make some posts with terse words given that this is close to my heart

Quoting brilondon (Reply 124): Or just give me the post that has such a summary of theories which I am sure has been done to death but as I said I would like just to see an executive summary of theories of what is the most probable situation.

See rcair1's excellent summary, reply 77 in part 33.

A few comments here:

First when does news no longer become "breaking" the plane has been missing for a while now, few new facts have come up. Enough with the breaking news all the time. I am surprised how long this has lasted in the media as a 24/7 coverage. It really might turn out to be one of the greatest mysteries of modern time though.

I see they are focusing a ton on how a "pro" must of done this. They ask pilots these questions about the airplane. Only one person gave a real response. The 777 Sim pilot on CNN said I could teach the reporter how to fly with the FMC and Autopilot if he is a smart guy. The only thing "pro" about what I have seen about this flight so far is the ACARS being disengaged. Anything else could be learned from flying a PMDG 777 or other highly realistic and intensive program from Flight Simulator. It does not take a "pro" to learn how to use the autopilot and FMC. It would take a pro to safely land a 777 in some random grass/dirt or unlighted runway though. But how to operate the majority of the aircraft functions excluding hand flying and correctly responding to emergency situations can be picked up by non-pros.

I can easily be the person everyone would last expect but a veteran airline captain, with such strong family ties just does not make sense. And it seems like nothing is coming from the 27 year old F/O who had his dream job and was about to get married. This really is a big mystery. I just hope this airplane can be found.

Correct me if I am wrong though, but assuming the CVR and FDR were not disconnected dont they only record the final 30mins of any period? And they can be easily disconnected via the circuit breaker.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 124):

That will vary according to what happened to the plane. A fact we do not have yet.

Obviously if it crashed, they are most likely dead, regardless of why and where it crashed. Possibly there are survivors. But we've heard no ELT signals. So, not likely. There is an ELT in the plane, and there are ELTs with the slides/rafts.

If it was hijacked by terrorists, it would be easy to kill them all at once via depressurization. This seems most likely if the plane was hijacked.

If it was hijacked for ransom, well, I guess they are alive somewhere and under guard? Not likely.

If it was hijacked for use as a weapon, then the passengers could not be left alive, imo.

Quoting billreid (Reply 104): 6. Radar from India, Pakistan, Western China. Given how hard it was for Malaysia to track this airplane on radar, why should we assume that other third world countries would have picked this up so easily, especially if it was simply flying a standard commercial route. Any chance it just fell through the cracks as it did flying across Malaysia and Thailand?

It did not fall through the cracks while flying through Malaysia. It was detected, and the Malaysians said so from day 2, although they were not positive it was MH370. Given that India, China and Pakistan are paranoid about each other, I find it exceedingly hard to believe that MH370 went through their airspaces totally undetected. As for India, China and Pakistan being "third-world countries," well they all have nuclear weapons, don't they? And, in any case, I would hardly consider China a third-world country.

Haven't seen this for a few threads, this wiki set up by a member (sorry, can't remember who) has all the information, including rcair1s sanity checks and the Inmarsat deployment circles, etc

http://mh370.wikia.com/wiki/Mh370_Wiki

its working well to keep most things up to date

Quoting Trin (Reply 114): Exactly what I posted in about Part Fifteen as an additional possibility to the list of reasons why Malaysian authorities are looking so incapable. They COULD be 'hiding something', I suppose, if you want to believe that.....but my gut feeling tells me that the more likely (requiring the least leap of faith) explanation for their poor handling of the situation (and any other country this flight flew over) is that their governments are very reluctant to show to the world how little control/awareness they have of their own airspaces. Almost none, I would bet, in the case of Malaysia

I am new here and this is my first posting. I have been lurking in this website almost every hour since day 1 of the incident . The information I get here is very informative and I believe I should contribute too to give a different point of view from a Malaysian.

Malaysia in general is a peaceful country. We didnt go to war to gain our independence and when Sarawak and Sabah join Malaysia, no one get killed. When Singapore separated from Malaysia, not a single life was lost.

When the communists attempted to take over the countries, we defended with help of many countries.and when Indonesia invaded our country, we defended ourself , also with help from friendly countries. Since 1970s , we make peace with many countries including China, USA, Russia and via ASEAN, we are also friendly with our neighbours.

As our region is peaceful, our alertness may be lacking compare to countries facing hostile enemies like Korea and Israel.Furthermore. the military radar men may had detected a big blip indicating an unidentified object flying at a speed of commercial air-craft , entering and leaving Malaysia airspace. Thus, they may decide that this flying object did not pose a threat and no alarm was raised.

Thailand says they received data after the first turn:

Quote: The Thai data is the second radar evidence that the plane did indeed turn around toward the Strait of Malacca. It follows information from the Malaysian Air Force that its military radar tracked the plane as it passed over the small island of Pulau Perak in the Strait of Malacca. "The unknown aircraft's signal was sending out intermittently, on and off, and on and off," the spokesman said. The Thai military lost the unknown aircraft's signal because of the limits of its military radar, he said. The radar data is an encouraging sign that investigators are on the right track, but they still are not sure where the plane ended up.

What was sending intermittently? The ACARS would make no sense, the transponder? Something strange about this statement.

Quoting Kelloggs (Reply 121): Correct and all they need is a and pardon my french a "computer nerd" to totally mask it this day and age. Gone are the days of the "inflatable tank"

Don't dismiss the effectiveness of camouflage. It's very much in the realms of possibility to hide a 777 under tarp and camouflage netting to keep it hidden in satellite pictures.
Remember, people will be looking for a 777 shaped objected. Break up that shape and you make it harder to find.

I'm not saying that is what has happened, if it had landed, it would me much easier to just shove it in a hangar. Even is only partially, it will still make it less obvious to all but the closest of scrutiny.

Not sure if this has been discussed but apparently people have reported seeing a similar plane overfly the Maldives on the morning after. http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Natio..._source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Plane believed to be Malaysia Airline sighted off Maldives and going south at low altitude.

http://www.haveeru.com.mv/news/54062

Quoting zeke (Reply 125): Malaysia already has given it at least to the US and China.

I was referring to a media release or posting it on the internet. I'm aware that the Malaysians provided FAA and NTSB investigators with their primary radar data for analysis.

Still stuck on the regional politics. If this event had occurred in Panama in central america, with a flight headed to New York city, the United States would own everything related to this investigation. What we would not do is allow China to fly a bunch of sophisticated aircraft with advanced electronic listening capabilities along our southern coasts, ostensibly to help find the a/c. Why then is it crickets from China? Communist countries are the most paranoid on the planet, so I just can't understand their silence, except for secrecy. Mind you I have no notion of their motivations - though I lean towards not admitting to a porous airspace - but it just strains credulity that China is just as clueless as the Malaysians (and everybody else for that matter.)

I'm sure that the possibility of an in-flight fire has been mentioned here, but I must admit, it's not so easy to follow this thread at times.
Anyway, I came across this article, and it's an interesting read. If it's been already posted/discussed, please flag for deletion. Otherwise, any thoughts on what Chris Goodfellow has to say?

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

Me thinks that it is not going to be found.. I mean we have as much chance of winning the big one in Lotto and buying the last 727 that came off of the production line. Problem is I know where that is...either that or you have a nice wife

Quoting tiong (Reply 138): Plane believed to be Malaysia Airline sighted off Maldives and going south at low altitude. http://www.haveeru.com.mv/news/54062

A North to South East heading, can anyone see a reason it would be flying in that direction? Doesn't make much sense

Why do I keep on reading and seeing (CNN, etc.) commentary that it would be difficult to hide a 777?

If Lockheed could hide an entire town/factory during WWII...

http://aviationhumor.net/lockheed-burbank-aircraft-plant-camouflage/

Quoting BuyantUkhaa (Reply 135): What was sending intermittently? The ACARS would make no sense, the transponder? Something strange about this statement.

Without more information, I'd guess they could be talking about an intermittent primary radar return rather than a signal being "sent" from the aircraft.

Quoting tiong (Reply 138): Plane believed to be Malaysia Airline sighted off Maldives and going south at low altitude.

Interesting, that would definitely support the southern route theory.

Quoting SimonDanger (Reply 140): Communist countries are the most paranoid on the planet, so I just can't understand their silence, except for secrecy.

Sorry, but your own country definitely took the paranoid gold medal soon after 9/11. Besides, China is hardly a "communist country" anymore with all the foreign corporations running around.

Most likely China just has no more information than anybody else, after all the plane most likely never even came near their airspace.

Quoting stealthz (Reply 42): Indeed the current US assets are a single P-3 and P-8, The Kidd has returned to it's normal duties.

That's probably not an accurate assessment. I would be willing to bet there are several USN submarines working the search either on site or in transit. The USN does not generally make statements regarding the whereabouts of it's submarines.

Quoting laddb (Reply 96):

I am also wondering why the big- boys seem quite on this. Unlike Malaysia, they have the technology clout and their silence so far were totally not anticipated..

There are a lot of conspiracies theory in the Internet and one of them may be true.

Quoting pvjin (Reply 146): Interesting, that would definitely support the southern route theory.

Not really. Hard to imagine that it could have reached any of those 2 "corridors", especially at low altitude... But maybe the satellite is wrong and the human eye is right?  

Quoting tiong (Reply 138):

This news is appears to be more credible than all those we are hearing the last 10 days.