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MarcoT
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:26 pm

Quoting cbrboy (Reply 100):
Other countries not telling the public or Malaysia what they know due to the information revealing military capability or intelligence gathering methods.

add other countries passing confidential infos to Malaysia on the condition of not disclosing the source...
Too short space for my favorite hopelessly long winded one liner
 
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jetfuel
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:28 pm

Quoting tiong (Reply 138):
Plane believed to be Malaysia Airline sighted off Maldives and going south at low altitude.

http://www.haveeru.com.mv/news/54062

Worth a look but the question is why are they reporting this after such a long time frame? Its so hard to know what is credible
Where's the passion gone out of the airline industry? The smell of jetfuel and the romance of taking a flight....
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:30 pm

Quoting tiong (Reply 138):
Plane believed to be Malaysia Airline sighted off Maldives and going south at low altitude.

According to the article, the plane was spotted at 6:15 am in the Maledives. That would be 9:15 am Malaysian time. It is inconsistent with the satellite pings and MH 370 would have exhausted its fuel by that time. The plane they saw cannot possibly be MH 370, unless it was refuelled somewhere and satellite ping data is incorrect.
 
sejtam
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:32 pm

Via Dhaal in the direction of Addu. Diego Garcia looks possible again...
 
LTC8K6
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:33 pm

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 153):

According to the article, the plane was spotted at 6:15 am in the Maledives. That would be 9:15 am Malaysian time. It is inconsistent with the satellite pings and MH 370 would have exhausted its fuel by that time. The plane they saw cannot possibly be MH 370, unless it was refuelled somewhere and satellite ping data is incorrect.

Well, the plane reportedly had 30 minutes fuel left at the 8:11 mark, so the time is not far enough off to dismiss, imo.

Mind you, I still don't think it was MH370 they saw.

I do wonder what plane they did see, though.
 
hivue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:34 pm

Quoting tiong (Reply 148):
and their silence so far were totally not anticipated..

As I implied in an earlier post if the US, Israel, Australia, and maybe India believe this incident represents an immediate and serious security concern the normal procedure would be to keep quiet. In particular, they may be cutting the Malaysians out as much as possible.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
SamH123
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:37 pm

Flying With Fish ‏@flyingwithfish 27s
Thailand now says it may have spotted #MH370 minutes after it went dark, but didn’t say anything because no one asked for that specific info
 
davidzill
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:39 pm

Ok what is new from last night until today as far as developments go?
 
JimJupiter
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:43 pm

Quoting davidzill (Reply 158):
Ok what is new from last night until today as far as developments go?

See the first post or rcair1's latest "sanity check".
One is born, one runs up bills, one dies.
 
theaviator380
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:45 pm

Quoting SamH123 (Reply 157):

WTF...if this is true then that's shame of Thai officials. Again how reliable is this source?

Quoting milan320 (Reply 141):

I went through that article however IF (big IF) information about left turn already been keyed in in FMS is true then that contradicts this guy's theory. This means either of the pilot or someone knew flight will turn left from where it signed off Malaysian ATC and not because of fire they took left turn.
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:46 pm

Quoting davidzill (Reply 158):
Ok what is new from last night until today as far as developments go?

This one:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/18/wo...asia/malaysia-airlines-flight.html

Quote:
Flight 370’s Flight Management System reported its status to the Acars, which in turn transmitted information back to a maintenance base, according to an American official. This shows that the reprogramming happened before the Acars stopped working. The Acars ceased to function about the same time that oral radio contact was lost and the airplane’s transponder also stopped, fueling suspicions that foul play was involved in the plane’s disappearance.
 
MarcoT
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:47 pm

Quoting Trin (Reply 114):
but my gut feeling tells me that the more likely (requiring the least leap of faith) explanation for their poor handling of the situation (and any other country this flight flew over) is that their governments are very reluctant to show to the world how little control/awareness they have of their own airspaces. Almost none, I would bet, in the case of Malaysia.

I don't understand, I really don't understand. On DAY 2 they said the AF belevies that the aircraft may have made a turn and thus they are expanding the search area to the Andaman Sea. So on DAY 2 they were record saying that a 777 could have slipped under their on nose. How on earth is this reluctant?!
Too short space for my favorite hopelessly long winded one liner
 
nakb
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:47 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 144):
Why do I keep on reading and seeing (CNN, etc.) commentary that it would be difficult to hide a 777?

If Lockheed could hide an entire town/factory during WWII...

The only point in trying to hide it is if they intend to use it again - otherwise it would simply be torched. That means that if it has been landed, and hidden, it needs to be somewhere where it can be re-fueled and safely take off again. That means a proper runway, suitable for large transports, and access to fuel. That greatly limits the potential locations (OK there are a few thousand, but most of these are very public - even in deepest China people have access to social media).

It would not take too long for the possible locations to be scanned using US spy satellites - they probably already have been.

Traditional camouflage would not be sufficient to avoid detection. Heat signatures can be picked up and there are other satellite-based sensing methods that we don't officially know about.

I therefore find it almost impossible to believe that a large transport can be hidden intact for over a week without detection, unless it is with the active involvement of the state where it has landed. I cannot think of any reason why a state would seek to steal a 777 (setting aside the more bizarre conspiracy theories).

If it were intended to be used for terrorism purposes then it would have been taken immediately prior to the intended event (to maintain the element of surprise and minimise risk of detection). I am therefore forced to conclude that either it was a terrorist act but, for some reason, the act was aborted, or it was a more traditional hijack that went wrong. Either way I cannot believe the plane is still intact. It is probably either in the ocean or in small pieces in some very remote part of the Northern arc. I can totally understand why some people need to cling on to hope, and others theorise more complicated scenarios, but sadly I cannot subscribe to that myself.
 
MarcoT
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:52 pm

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 120):
Do you seriously expect Malaysia and Thailand to release radar data from their military air defense radars? That strikes me as unlikely.


Malaysia has stated, several days ago, that they've handed their raw military radar tapes to the US and China, and last they've checked neither the US nor China denied this assertion...

[edit]:
I saw that you've already acknowledged that while I was composing the message, I will keep this nonethless (just edited out the polemic bold WHAT at the start) as a useful reminder of this facts, since I think that I've seen at least another poster joining in musing about why they're hiding it...

[Edited 2014-03-18 09:01:37]
Too short space for my favorite hopelessly long winded one liner
 
ANITIX87
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:52 pm

In interesting article. Follows the Occam's Razor theory, but may not be relevant with the newest information we have (though I tend to assume nothing we hear is true anymore, haha)

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

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hivue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:53 pm

Quoting nakb (Reply 163):
I am therefore forced to conclude that either it was a terrorist act but, for some reason, the act was aborted, or it was a more traditional hijack that went wrong.

In either case why would the thwarted terrorists/hijackers continue controlled flight for 6+ more hours?
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
Trin
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:54 pm

Quoting MarcoT (Reply 162):
So on DAY 2 they were record saying that a 777 could have slipped under their on nose. How on earth is this reluctant?!

If that had been what they said, then no - they wouldn't have been being reluctant in admitting that they are unable to provide the simplest of radar tracking across their own airspace. But - unfortunately, that isn't what they said. They said very little in the first few days (the most critical part of the investigation), apart from that they THOUGHT it had maybe turned west and that their military radar MAY HAVE seen something that COULD HAVE been MH370.

Not exactly an admission of a less-than-stellar airspace monitoring job, is it?

[Edited 2014-03-18 08:57:38]
 
SimonDanger
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:55 pm

User currently offlinepvjin From Finland, joined Mar 2012, 945 posts, RR: 1
Reply 146, posted Tue Mar 18 2014 05:10:18 your local time (21 minutes 2 secs ago) and read 2240 times:

Quoting SimonDanger (Reply 140):
Communist countries are the most paranoid on the planet, so I just can't understand their silence, except for secrecy.

..."Sorry, but your own country definitely took the paranoid gold medal soon after 9/11. Besides, China is hardly a "communist country" anymore with all the foreign corporations running around." ...

This comment seems unnecessarily hostile. As an American I am comfortable with the repeated swipes at our country, especially from small countries with inferiority complexes, but that has nothing to do with China, and their silence, and I don't think the majority of the world - especially its neighbors - agree that China has cast off its communist mantle.
 
Backseater
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:58 pm

If the Maldives sighting is true, then I promise to stop asking questions about the margin of error of satellite based estimates:

- first it was just a thin red line (drawn by hand I think) on the 40deg elevation contour for 3-F1
- this morning, the hard to hear media conference (I wish journalists would submit questions in writing and ask for written answers in English!) provided an indirect margin of error +/- 200 nm which means 40deg +/- 3.3 deg approximately
- now the Maldives would require another adjustment, namely 40 deg +/- 35???

A lot of people fly to the Maldives for vacations, mostly from the northern hemisphere. The sighting is over 100nm south of Male airport. Except possibly coming from Singapore but I don't think there are any overnight flights, you would have to be really lost to troll down there or be looking for a survivable place to ditch.
 
surfpunk
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:00 pm

Quoting billreid (Reply 109):
We have a tendency to over complicate things.
I believe strongly on Ockhams Razor, the simplest solution is generally the correct one.
Given that do you believe the T7 is in the sea, or has been landed?
What makes the most sense? It is not what we want to believe, it is what makes the most sense given what little we know.

I don't know if this has been posted/summarized, as I haven't followed these threads in a couple days, and there's just too much to go back through. I don't see anything in this one, and this article has today's date on it. This is a pretty simple explanation of what could have happened on board MH370, and it makes a reasonable amount of sense.

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

Thoughts (and I apologize if this is a repost)?
 
capri
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:01 pm

We keep analyzing things like what they keep telling us is true, i am discrediting them about the fuel amount, maybe was fueld twice and had 15hrs range, and this Maldives sighting from lots of people not 1 unless Maldives felt inferiority that no one asked for anything and wanted to join in the limelight
 
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ssteve
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:03 pm

Quoting ANITIX87 (Reply 165):
In interesting article. Follows the Occam's Razor theory, but may not be relevant with the newest information we have (though I tend to assume nothing we hear is true anymore, haha)

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

It is interesting to speculate it was an electrical fire and they "pulled the busses" though calling Swissair 111 a DC-10 that ditched seems to show a lack of attention to detail...
 
SamH123
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:03 pm

Quoting ANITIX87 (Reply 165):

In interesting article. Follows the Occam's Razor theory, but may not be relevant with the newest information we have (though I tend to assume nothing we hear is true anymore, haha)

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

It was posted above but it is interesting

Although I would have thought assuming the plane could fly for 6+ hours after the pilots were knocked unconscious is a big assumption and breaks the razor. All the other recorded fires on planes had totally different timelines I think?
 
tiong
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:04 pm

Quoting sejtam (Reply 154):
User currently offlinesejtam From Singapore, joined Sep 2011, 37 posts, RR: 0
Reply 154, posted Tue Mar 18 2014 23:32:47 your local time (11 minutes 31 secs ago) and read 1412 times:

Via Dhaal in the direction of Addu. Diego Garcia looks possible again.

Why Diego Garcia?? Putting the dots again.

1.According to the local newspaper , the flight simulator found to contain 5 landing sites in India, Sri lanka , Maldives and Diego Garcia http://english.astroawani.com/news/s...in-zaharies-flight-simulator-32034

2. The pilot's idol is loved by some hidden hands in the most powerful nation on earth..

Conspiracy theory again and I do hope this is not true at all.
 
LTC8K6
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:04 pm

Quoting surfpunk (Reply 170):

Why would we ignore the rest of the turns, though?

You have to ignore those to get to a simple fire theory.

How was the plane turning at those waypoints?
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:08 pm

Quoting surfpunk (Reply 170):
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/Thoughts (and I apologize if this is a repost)?

The plane plane flying through pre-programmed waypoints is not consistent with an electrcal fire and attempt to deviate to a near alternate airport. If the new New York Times article about a new waypoint programmed before ACARS went off is accurate, it makes the electical fire even less consistent.
 
nakb
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:12 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 166):
In either case why would the thwarted terrorists/hijackers continue controlled flight for 6+ more hours?

Possibly because whatever may have thwarted the intended act of terrorism incapacitated the crew, so it continued on auto-pilot until the fuel ran out? Or (but much less likely) the attempts by those on board to thwart the act were only successful after several hours.

The track calculated from the hourly handshake "pings" will probably have indicated whether it followed a straight path for most of those 6+ hours (either North or South) - but only the arc from the final "ping" has been made public so we can only speculate as to whether it was under active control for the whole period.
 
Trin
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:18 pm

Quoting surfpunk (Reply 170):
I don't know if this has been posted/summarized, as I haven't followed these threads in a couple days, and there's just too much to go back through. I don't see anything in this one, and this article has today's date on it. This is a pretty simple explanation of what could have happened on board MH370, and it makes a reasonable amount of sense.

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

Thoughts (and I apologize if this is a repost)?

I just don't understand this Goodfellow guy's take on the event. He is taking the Occam's Razor method of deduction and using it as a machete. It seems beyond elementary to me that he could look at what happened with MH370, see the runway on Palau Langkawi, and say to himself (and the internet world) "By George, there's a runway - I've solved it!".

The ONLY facts he is basing his "electrical fire" theory upon are the loss of communication, the plane's last radar signature headed west towards the Malacca Straits, and the fact that there's a runway on Palau Langkawi. Several things come to my mind in disputing his claims that this was an electrical fire:

1. We know, by now, that the erroneous change in course from north-easterly to westerly in the plane's heading was done in a premeditated fashion using the FMS. That sort of keystroke programming is HIGHLY unlikely in the event of a fire/onboard emergency.

2. History both modern and older is replete with aircraft that have suffered fire damage/fire emergencies. To my knowledge, none of them have resulted in complete loss of communications. This would be unlikely - at least in the initial stages of the discovery of the fire.

3. With his vision of the pilots/crew battling with an electrical fire, pulling and replacing buses, and fighting to control the plane - why would autopilot continue? I am unsure about a Boeing's infrastructure W/R/T autopilot disengagement, but surely the pulling of buses, fire in EE etc. all would be seen as qualify events for the disengagement of autopilot by the plane's onboard computer, right?

4. IF autopilot was still in control while the plane overflew Palau Langkawi, why would it just continue indefinitely to fly the plane? In the event of a fire/need for an emergency landing somewhere in Malaysia, there would be NO reason for the FMS/autopilot to be programmed to fly the plane out into the vasts of the Indian Ocean.....therefore, even IF the plane had been 'programmed' to fly to near Palau Langkawi because of an emergency, once it reached its designated coordinates it would - surely - disengage and look for pilot input?

I think people are getting very obsessed with the notion of what 'autopilot' is. It doesn't just mean "fly forever".

[Edited 2014-03-18 09:22:00]

[Edited 2014-03-18 09:23:07]
 
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N328KF
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:19 pm

Is the current Australian search zone located such that if MH370 were found there, that the investigation would be headed up by the ATSB? With the apparent incompetence and intransigence of the Malaysian investigation, this would be a way to shift control.
“In the age of information, ignorance is a choice.”
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LTC8K6
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:20 pm

How about this for the beginning of the scenario?

The hijacker, presumably one of the pilots, begins by programming the first turn into the plane while the other pilot is not looking. This data is sent with the last ACARS message.

When the plane begins this turn, a fight breaks out in the cockpit over control of the plane, resulting in the high altitude excursion.

The hijacker wins the fight...
 
davidzill
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:24 pm

Again with Diego Garcia, you will not land there without expressed permission from military ATC. The base is littered with strategic bombers, including the $3.5 billion B-2 bomber. It is a U.S. Military pit stop. Highly unlikely 370 landed there unnoticed.
 
jpetekyxmd80
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:24 pm

How far back would the CVR go?
The Best Care in the Air, 1984-2009
 
tiong
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:25 pm

Quoting k83713 (Reply 23):
Quoting jelliesR (Reply 17):

Yeah, and that would explain his attention to the trial, but that would not explain his suicide with 238 other people on board after 7 hours of flying in secret from the rest of the world

I dont believe it was a suicide attempt. Putting the dots, I think a protest attempt may be, with the plane , crew and passengers remain intact and the plane landed safely at some unknown location. Or maybe the protest attempt going wawry and the airplane landed in the ocean but yet to be found.

I am wondering if there is a remote possibility of calls made from the plane using satellite phones (not necessary using services offered from MAS) .
 
IADCA
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:28 pm

Quoting Trin (Reply 178):
I just don't understand this Goodfellow guy's take on the event. He is taking the Occam's Razor method of deduction and using it as a machete. It seems beyond elementary to me that he could look at what happened with MH370, see the runway on Palau Langkawi, and say to himself (and the internet world) "By George, there's a runway - I've solved it!".

I can't take him seriously at all. His comparable inflight fires paragraph contains numerous factual errors, at least two of which are important to his point:

- The AC DC9 flight landed at CVG, not Columbus.
-23 people, not "thirty-odd," died.
- They did not "bypass several airports" because they didn't know them, as the writer insinuates; they bypassed them because they assumed the smoke alarm was going off due to a smoldering fire in a lavatory trash bin, which happened a lot at the time.
-the Swissair crash was an MD-11, not a DC-10.
- There's nothing to indicate that the Swissair 111 pilots ever shut off the radios. They were transmitting to ATC until 10 seconds before the CVR and FDR stopped recording.
 
liquidair
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:31 pm

Quoting davidzill (Reply 181):
Highly unlikely 370 landed there unnoticed.

ok, maybe not the right time and slightly off-topic, but when i read that... all i could think of was Kramer in 'Airplane!' saying... "no...that's just what they'll be expecting us to do...." had to chuckle

[Edited 2014-03-18 09:31:39]
trying to stop my gaseous viscosity go liquid
 
rcair1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:33 pm


Sanity Check - 3/18/2014 15:00Z
There is (will be) a link to this post in my profile under "homepage"

3/18/2014 15:00Z update since last Sanity Check.
The facts have not changed much. The a/c has not been found.
I've tried to be as factually accurate as I can - but I'm not an expert in each system - so if there factual errors please advise.
Updated section Way-points and Navigation including discussion of ACARS and FMS(Flight Management System).
Update section on discussion of oxygen and pressurization.
Added short section on inducing hypoxia in passengers.
Added a/c information.


First a synopsis
The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing
The last ACARS transmission was 01:07 local.
The last comms were "All right, good night" transmitted to Malaysia ant hand-off to Vietnam control. Vietnam was not contacted. It has been reported it was the First Officer's voice.
NOTE: Saying "good night" or "so long" or "see you" is very common for hand-offs.
The transponder stopped transmitting at 1:21 - loss of secondary radar.
There are reports of a climb to 45K, uneven descent and some changes in altitude. Since this is based on primary radar - altitude data is somewhat uncertain. The last has been reported as 29,500ft but that seems in dispute.
There are subsequent primary radar returns west over Malacca Strait and then north west. Since it is primarily radar - a reflection - it does NOT identify the a/c, however it has been correlated with SATCOM pings so confidence is high that the returns are from MH370
See further information on oxygen and hypoxia below
SATCOM system pings continued for 7+ (last ping at 08:11 local) hrs after LOS (loss of signal)
SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on correlation to signal strength there are two loci that indication aircraft distance from the Satellite.
These are not paths and I have changed my language to reflect that. They represent a distance from the satellite.
Loci one is north over Andaman Sea, Bay of Bengal as far as Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and is consistent with primary radar.
Loci two is south over the India Ocean west of Australia. We've had no reports of radar signals in that area.
The last SATCOM ping was at 8:11 am Malaysian time. At that time it would be dark on the north radius and light over the south radius.
Best data I have is SATCOM pings are hourly - so the 8:11 ping could be up to 1 hour before the aircraft stopped 'pinging'.
We have no ELT signal detected.
While authorities (Malaysian) have not confirmed this is a hijacking or purposeful event - it is believed that is highly likely by most, however, motivation is unknown.
Debris reported by Greek oil tanker has already been reported as not relevant.
Recent reports attributed to the FBI that the plane 'could have landed' and sent a satellite signal from the ground appear to be just confirming what we already knew - that the SATCOM pings could come from an a/c in flight, or powered up on the ground..
There have been no reports that a Rolls Royce EH report was sent upon landing.
UPDATE: There have been recent reports that the course changes were programed, not flown See ACARS and FMS below.

Time-line (from CNN)
1.07 am - Last ACARS transmission.
1.19 am - Last verbal communication "All right, good night" from the plane; believed to be the co-pilot
1.21 am - Transponder stopped transmitting (turned off or failed)
1.30 am - Civilian (primary) radar lost contact
1.37 am - Expected ACARS transmission; not received
2.15 am - Last military primary radar contact
8.11 am - Last (hourly) satellite handshake

ACARS
ACARS is an automated aircraft communication system that transmits a/c information, including navigation, operations, maintenance, etc to ATC and maintenance facilities.
ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight.
ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.
ACARS communicates via VHF, HF or SATCOM. The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.
ACARS can be instructed not to use SATCOM, HF or VHF from the Cockpit. This would effectively stop ACARS from sending data. Access to the EE bay is not required.
Reports that ACARS was disabled before the LOS event were incorrect. The last ACARS transmission was at 1:07. The next was expected at 1:37 and was not received. This means ACARS communication was disabled between those times. This could be action by the flight-deck crew or system failure.
UPDATE: ACARS can be used to send navigation information from ATC to the aircraft and vise versa.
This later fact is causing confusion that I've been unable to rectify as yet. See ACARS and FMS Communications below.

ACARS data from MH370
The ACARS system sent 2 engine health reports to Rolls Royce, both prior to the LOS event.
The Rolls Royce page indicates that a 'snapshot' of engine data would be sent at: takeoff, climb, cruise and landing. We know 2 ACARS Engine Health reports were received, so that would be consistent with the 1st two.
The last engine health report was received at 1:07am. The next was expected at 1:37 am and was not received. This indicates that the transmission of ACARS data was disabled between 1:07 and 1:37, but not when during that period.
The Engine Health report received prior to LOS had 'interesting' altitude data/fluctuations including 40K drop in a minute. That data is suspect.
Since no "landing" report was received, then either the ACARS communication was disabled, or the a/c did not land.
We have not heard if ACARS would send a report upon fuel starvation flame-out.

Way-point Tracks
The use of way-points to the navigate are conjecture. They happen to line up with the direction indicated by the primary radar returns and Inmarsat data to the north.
While many believe the aircraft was under control - we cannot conclude if these way-point were used, or just coincidentally along the path.
A 777 can be programed to follow a series of way-point automatically - this is normal operating procedure and a 777 pilot would need no extra practice/training to do it. (Relevant to pilot flight simulator ownership)

ACARS and FMS (Flight Management System) Communications relevant to the WAY-POINTS
Recent reports in the NYT imply that we 'know' that the turns made by MH370 were the result of programed heading (way-point) changes in the FMS, not hand flying.
I believe this is another case of speculation being taken as fact but I may be wrong. Basis for that belief follows - rcair1.
The NYT reports use inconsistent language. Specifically the article says:
- "was most likely programmed by someone in the plane’s cockpit" (emphasis added)
Followed by:
- "Instead of manually operating the plane’s controls, whoever altered Flight 370’s path typed seven or eight keystrokes into a computer on a knee-high pedestal between the captain and the first officer, according to officials." This is stated as a fact
To make it worse - the article also says:
-"It is not clear whether the plane’s path was reprogrammed before or after it took off."
But then it says.
-"Flight 370’s Flight Management System reported its status to the Acars, which in turn transmitted information back to a maintenance base, according to an American official."
Attempted analysis (by rcair1):
The article is full of inconsistencies - which is red flag for speculation to me.
I believe the sentence "It is not clear whether..." is key. If they do not know if the re-programing was done before or after takeoff,Then this is speculation, not fact.
Why?: If we had data proving the FMS was reprogrammed - that data would have to come from the aircraft via some communication channel.
-If that channel was gate communication - it happened before takeoff
-If that channel was ACARS (VHF or SATCOM) - it happened after takeoff
The fact that we do not know - means we did not receive the communication.
Hence: It is speculation. BTW - I think it is likely to have happened, but that does not mean I know it.
If we can get clarification on this - I will update it.
Additional points:
Question for experts in 777 FMS Navigation
While I believe that the FMS (LNAV) can manage way-point transitions, I don't know if it manages altitude with way-points or not.
We saw a/c change altitude - how would this be programmed? Could changes be 'between' way-points?
The LNAV is part of the autopilot. If the a/c climbed to 45K and stalled, then recovered at 23K, I believe the autopilot would disengage at the stall.

SATCOM
SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.
SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.
The SATCOM system on MH370 was connecting to Inmarsat 3 satellites. In the area covered, the only satellite with coverage is IOR.
Since only 1 satellite has coverage, no triangulation is possible. All that can be determined is distance from the satellite. This has been used to define 2 potential loci were the a/c could have been.
North Corridor
.
South Corridor
We do not know if these corridors are defined by the last SATCOM ping, or multiple pings.
We cannot distinguish if the a/c was flying or parked on the ground (powered up) when these pings were sent.
We have not been told how the distance from IOR was estimated - it could be signal strength or time of flight (signal propagation time).Opinion: as an EE I think signal strength is unlikely - it would depend on things such as a/c orientation. Time of flight - which is how GPS works - seems more likely - however others have pointed out this requires precise timing.
NOTE: While these may appear as paths - they are not. They are simply a set of potential locations based upon ping data. The aircraft could have been in a constant standard turn circle somewhere along one of the loci (red lines) and the satellite could not tell. We only know it was somewhere along those lines.

SATCOM Pings
The SATCOM system sends (or responds to) periodic 'pings' to/from the satellites (hourly). These 'pings' are a network communication that says "I am here."
SATCOM pings are not communicating a/c status, they are part of the communications channel. They are akin to registration pings on a cell system.
The last pings were detected at 8:11am Malaysia time. This does not mean the aircraft went down or landed at this time, only that the last ping was 8:11. Source I've seen indicate the pings are hourly - but that is not confirmed.
SATCOM pings provide no aircraft heading, speed or altitude information, however, distance from the Satellite can be estimated, and ONLY distance.
Based on analysis of the SATCOM pings by Inmarsat, two possible corridors have been predicted based upon a radius from the satellite picking up the pings.
SATCOM pings would be sent as long as the system (aircraft) was power up and withing coverage area. So, on the ground, if powered up (thanks to mandala499).
People have asked if SATCOM pings could come from a crashed plane if the right parts survived.
Very unlikely. The system is not self contained, the equipment, power and antennas are separate.
Recent news about the fact that the plane could have landed really appears to be just a restatement of known data.
Specifically - the SATCOM pings could have been sent from an aircraft powered, but landed - or from an aircraft in flight.
Clarification: The key is the system is powered, whether by engines, apu or shore line (on the ground).
Again: These pings to not contain ANY data about the aircraft position, speed, altitude, etc.
The 'location' data inferred from the SATCOM pings is based analysis of those signals which gives an approximate distance from the satellite to the a/c.
Since the satellite is in geosynchronous orbit (~22,000 miles), the difference in distance between a flying aircraft and one on the ground is probably not measurable.

Hypoxia and Pressurization
There has been lots of speculation about loss of pressurization in the aircraft and what that would do to passengers and crew.
IMPORTANT NOTE: all of this applies to cabin pressure - not the pressure outside.Just climbing to 45K would not exposed the passengers to that altitude - the aircraft would have to be depressurized.
In the case of loss of cabin pressure - O2 mask would deploy automatically.
The pilots cannot disable this above 13,500 feet - they can release the masks.
Passengers masks would last 12-20 minutes. Portable crew (FA) bottles ~30minutes. Cockpit crew longer.
Time of useful consciousness (not to loss of consciousness) will range from 1-3 minutes at 30K to 9-15 seconds at 43K. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_of_useful_consciousness)
above 40,000 ft cabin altitude - positive pressure oxygen is required - passenger masks do not do this and would not be effective.
Because of this the a/c must be certified able to descend and pilots demonstrate an emergency descent to ~10,000 ft in 2 minutes.
The actual regulation is that passengers cannot be exposed to a cabin altitude of more than 25K for more than 2 minutes, or more than 40K for any time. (A380 got an exception to this rule.)

Cabin pressurization by Pilots (this is not as solid as I would like in terms of facts).
NOTE: Above 40K passenger masks are ineffective - positive pressure O2 is required.
Question: Can the pilots 'depressurize' the plane?
The FAA regulations state the a/c "must be designed so that occupants will not be exposed to cabin pressure altitudes in excess of 15,000 feet (4,600 m) after any probable failure condition in the pressurization system"
So for normal 'failures' - no, the cabin will remain below 15K.
However, per member mandala499 the pilots could: 1) Open outflow valves, 2) turn off bleed air. The cabin would then depressurize to current altitude.
I have no data on how quickly this would happen - but I think it would take minutes at least.
Let's investigate the sequence required and how that is related to the reported "climb to 45K":
1) Pilots (or whomever is in control) switches to manual pressurization, turns off bleed, opens outflow valves.
2) Cabin altitude climbs above 13,500 and passenger masks deploy - there is no way to prevent that. At that point passengers and cabin crew know.
3) Presuming the pilots do not descent - passengers O2 will last 12-20 minutes. After that, depending on the cabin altitude they will loose effective consciousness (not loose consciousness, but effective consciousness).
4) Cabin crew O2 will run out.
5) During this time, the flight crew O2 will operate and I believe it lasts longer.
6) At some point - depending on cabin altitude - those not on O2 will die (no other way to say it).
The question becomes - how long would this sequence take?
Below 40K cabin altitude - and once the cabin is depressurized- minimum 12-30 minutes for all passengers and cabin crew to become disabled. (I believe the flight deck crew has positive pressure O2 but I'm not sure.)
Above 40K cabin altitude - I do not know - w/o positive pressure oxygen people will loose effective consciousness in seconds.
With O2, but not positive pressure - will this be extended?
If you descend below 40K with non positive pressure O2 masks still operating - will people recover?
Summary:
It appears flight crew (or knowledgeable hijackers) could depressurize the cabin and disable all.
O2 masks would deploy so passengers and cabin crew would know.
This would not be an instantaneous procedure - the biggest factor is how long would it take to depressurize the a/c.

CRV/FDR Data
The CVR (cockpit voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder) do not transmit data in flight.
They do emit sonic pings if immersed. These will last a minimum of 30 days. We can expect sonar is being used to listen for them.
The pinger operates at 37.5KHz 106.5dp re 1μPa. (thanks k83713)
Maximum depth of beacon detection in Normal Conditions: 1-2km
Maximum depth of beacon detection in Good Conditions: 4-5km
Localising a pinger from the surface in shallow water is relatively easy, as described above. In deep water, the detection equipment should be installed on a self-propelled underwater vehicle, presupposing that the position is already known to within the maximum 2-3km detection range.
More Info:http://www.hydro-international.com/i...Deepwater_Black_Box_Retrieval.html
The CVR reportedly is a 120 minute CVR so it would contain only the last 120 minutes of flight (presuming it did not fail or was turned off prior to that).
I don't have data form the recording time of the FDR, but it is typically much longer.

ELT
The ELT, or emergency locater transmitter is mounted in the rear of the aircraft - difficult to access in flight.
The ELT is battery powered - independent built in power source. It is this source that is suspect in causing the 787 fire at Heathrow.
The ELT will be trigged by G forces in a crash. It will not operate under water.
The ELT can be triggered from the cockpit - it is a hardwired switch not dependent on computer systems.
The ELT transmits on the guard frequency (VHF) and on 406MHz to satellites. If it had been triggered (above water), satellites would have heard it and been able to locate the a/c.

Primary versus Secondary Radar (brief tutorial)
Primary radar is based on the original military usage. It sends out a strong (KW to MW) signal and looks for a reflection from something.
Primary radar provides distance and location. Comparing returns speed can be determined. Strength of return can indicate size.
Stealth a/c and ships are designed to absorb or miss-direct the reflection so primary radar cannot see them.
Primary radar does not depend on the transponder, so turning off a transponder will not make an a/c disappear from primary.
Primary radar is less prevalent than secondary - and more typically military tho ATC's do use it.
Secondary Radar is really not Radar in the defined sense. It is directional communication.
In secondary radar a directional signal is sent out (much less powerful than primary). Any a/c with a transponder that receives it will respond (the transponder responds) with information about the aircraft.
Combined with the direction of the outgoing beam, the time of flight information and returned information, the a/c location and identity (and other info depending on the mode) is returned.
Secondary radar is the primary method used by ATC.
If the transponder fails or is turned off - secondary radar will not see the a/c.
In the case of MH370
The transponder was turned off - so the a/c disappeared from secondary (ATC) radar.
A target was tracked west, then northwest using primary radar. That target was correlated with SATCOM pings help determine it was MH370.

Airworthiness Directive
The airworthiness directive about corrosion near the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship.
The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antenna

Cargo and Lithium Battery Fires.
There are reports that the cargo in MH370 did not receive normal X-ray screening.
There are also statements that the shipment held nothing hazardous or remarkable.
There are reports of a shipment of lithium batteries on the a/c and that perhaps they caused a fire.
The hold of a passenger a/c like the 777 is protected with Halon and detectors - so a fire in the hold would be detected.
The EE bay is not so protected.
Therefore some think a fire could have occurred and been suppressed. This does not directly explain loss of comms.
Opinion: as a firefighter, I doubt this. The fire would destroy the a/c. However, those on the forum with more knowledge of these systems disagree

Aircraft Type and Fuel State
The aircraft was a Boeing 777-200ER. MTOW 656,000 lbs, 301 3 class passengers (standard Boeing Config - does not reflect MH specific config.)
The aircraft could land in 6000 ft, or much less at high risk. As little as 3000ft has been stated, but it could not take off from there.
The aircraft would need a hard surface to land - this is heavier that has been done on steel matts.
It is reported the aircraft 45 to 60 minutes extra fuel. This would amount to about 7-7.5 hrs of fuel. This is a normal amount for this route.
The aircraft should have been able to fly about 30 minutes after the last SATCOM ping at 8:11.
The figure at this link show max range for the 777-200ER. NOTE: MH370 was not fueled for this range. http://www.boeing.com/assets/pdf/com.../777_range_singapore.pdf


Search Areas (including those that have be halted)
Along the planed route. I believe searching in this area is ending or decreasing based on new data indicating the a/c is not there
West over the Malacca strait
North west of Malacca strait
Along the two loci predicted by the SATCOM pings which continue north to Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and south to the India Ocean.
These are huge search areas - I do not have a good handle on what assets are deployed where
It appears the north loci is considered more likely because of primary radar signals that roughly correlate.
I would expect review of primary radar west of Australia is in process if not done.

Mobile phones
We continue to have lots of discussion on "mobile phones" - can the connect in flight, etc.
We don't have any reports or evidence of that any passenger or crew mobile phone has registered with any network.
Until we have that data or reports - I believe the mobile phone discussions are not getting us anywhere.
UPDATE: This subject continues to be discussed. But, we have had no reports of cell phones registering with towers - we are in a loop here.

Theories and Conspiracy Theories
Currently, it seems most believe there is some positive action here - hijacker or crew based.
Opinion: Mostly, I believe this is because a mechanical failure that selectively terminates communication, incapacitates the crew/passengers, but then allows the a/c to fly on uncontrolled for 7 hours seems unlikely.
There are lots of theories out there - some clearly "conspiracy based" some just factual. Often it is hard to distinguish.
Here are a few.
A fire broke out that incapacitated passengers and crew - but allowed to aircraft to fly on it's own till starvation.
Corollary to this - the fire would have to disable comms, or cause the crew to disable comms in an attempt to fight it.
Corollary to this - the fire drove the pilots out of the cockpit.
Corollary to this - the fire disabled comms, nav and systems, and the crew - still alive - got lost trying to return.
The a/c was hijacked and flown to a remote strip to be used in a future terrorist act.
Corollary to this - The breadth of the countries searching alone makes this problematic, but it is not impossible.
The aircraft "shadowed" either a KLM or SIA aircraft to hide from radar then turned off the track and landed.
Questions raised - lot of discussion about if this was possible.
A mechanical failure depressurized the a/c and disabled the crew/passengers either rapidly or without their knowledge.
Corollary to this - What disabled comms?
One of the pilots hijacked the plane to commit suicide. (See Pilot Conspiracy below).
The plane was hijacked, either with or without crew involvement.
Despite the belief this is incident required human actions - we have no evidence of that. Rather - no other theory seems credible.
Freescale engineers have been hijacked for sensitive US data. Opinion: As an engineer who has worked with Freescale - I find that unsupportable. Companies send groups of employees around all the time. While many companies have policies about the # of executives on a flight - that typically is not enforced on regular employees.
There was something in the Cargo worth stealing - which is why it was not screened. This would require involvement of lots of people on the ground. Why not steal it on the ground.
The plane was full of undeclared gold.Gold is very heavy - what would you declare the cargo as?
The US hijacked the 777 using on board FBW technology to fly it like a drone to Diego Garcia (this one wins the insanity case).
Related: There has been a claim by counter terrorist expert that this could be a "cyber hijack" - a malicious attack of a FBW a/c. I don't know where to go with this - only reporting it because I'm trying to stay ahead of the next craze. Opinion: (speaking as an EE) this is the stuff dreams are made of (bad dreams).

Pilot Related Conspiracy Theories (some of this is my opinion).
The crew and passengers are a focus of investigation. Particularly the crew, because of the difficulty of managing an external cockpit intrusion.
The pilot has received a lot of attention because: 1) He supports opposition politics, 2) He has a mongo flight simulator, 3) There are rumors of family problems (debunked).
To address the data on a few of these:
1) The pilot supports opposition politics and may have been at a trial of the opposition leader (confirmed 'ordinary' member of opposition party). Opinion: What is the motive for suicide in this case?
2) The pilot has a very fancy flight simulator. People claim he used it to for this. Opinion: A 777 pilot does not need to train for the flying done - he knows how to do that stuff already. What he needs it planning for violent action/takeover. A flight simulator is no help.
Note - there has been some discussion that the pilot used this for training of accomplices.
3) There are rumors of family problems reported from China. This has been reported as untrue.

IN summary what we know is. (This has NOT changed)
The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.
There is evidence from SATCOM and Radar that the a/c traveled west - then most likely north west.
Hourly SATCOM signals show the a/c was operating till at least 8:11am Malaysia time, over 7 hrs total flight time
We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.

Additional thoughts.
A hijacking or positive intervention by human agency seems likely.
The erratic altitude and course may indicate a struggle on board.
While we would like to believe the a/c landed safely somewhere, that seems unlikely to have happened unobserved.


That is all.
Respectfully Submitted - rcair1
rcair1
 
solarflyer22
Posts: 1517
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 7:07 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:37 pm

Quoting tim73 (Reply 14):
Pretty hopeless to find it that far away in ocean unless they find that 30 day black box ping sound in time. They might someday find some piece of debris thousands of kilometers away washed onshore. The bodies are by now fish food

Yeah, I read the pinger only intended for max depth of 14k ft whereas Indian Ocean search area is 20k +. I am sure an attack submarine could hear it but don't know if we have any nearby.

USN pulled the USS Kidd inexplicably today as well.

Quoting woodreau (Reply 117):
Since we are listening for an active emitter from the data recorder, in addition to the path the sound took to get to the receiver, it is also de

Thanks for the info. I would love to see what a sonar man thinks of finding this thing.

Quoting N328KF (Reply 179):
With the apparent incompetence and intransigence of the Malaysian investigation, this would be a way to shift control.

I realize Malayasia is trying to save face but if I were the leader of a foreign country in this situation I would request the US and NTSB take over. This isn't an ordinary crash. This is a 1 in 1 billion type event and you need the world's best to handle it. There is no shame in admitting you're not the best at this. I would pull in France and Brazil as well in-light of their AF 447 experience.

If it's my national airline's reputation at stake, and if it's my citizen's on board, I would do everything within reason to fix this investigation and do it right away. Even if that means ceding the driver seat to another nation.
 
pintail21
Posts: 16
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:37 pm

Quoting tiong (Reply 174):
Quoting tiong (Reply 174):
Quoting sejtam (Reply 154):
User currently offlinesejtam From Singapore, joined Sep 2011, 37 posts, RR: 0
Reply 154, posted Tue Mar 18 2014 23:32:47 your local time (11 minutes 31 secs ago) and read 1412 times:

Via Dhaal in the direction of Addu. Diego Garcia looks possible again.

Why Diego Garcia?? Putting the dots again.

1.According to the local newspaper , the flight simulator found to contain 5 landing sites in India, Sri lanka , Maldives and Diego Garcia http://english.astroawani.com/news/s...in-zaharies-flight-simulator-32034

2. The pilot's idol is loved by some hidden hands in the most powerful nation on earth..

Conspiracy theory again and I do hope this is not true at all.



If you are a sim enthusiast are you going to check out the approach to a beautiful, tropical place like VRMM or FJDG (where he'll never get a chance to land there unless it's an emergency) or are you going to see what Omaha, Nebraska looks like? And if I'm trying to be super sneaky to get to a destination the last thing I want to do is fly near a strategic American/British (but empty) bomber/transport base with all sorts of sattelite arrays there too, especially while the Russians are trying to take over Ukraine. You think a large unidentified aircraft coming from the northeast, not talking to anyone might cause some alarm? I don't even think a terrorist attack on FJDG is likely. There's not a huge force there and there's no bombers there, if you wanted to attack a base there's a lot more choices.

I don't think you need a sim to practice visual approaches to any large airport. It's a visual approach to a 10,000+ ft runway. Land the jet. If you want to know what it looks like check out google earth or some jepp plates. My guess is he just wanted to experience 2 of the most scenic approaches in the world.
 
wxmeddler
Posts: 78
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:38 pm

I apologize in advance if this has been reported already but:

Maldives residents saw 'low-flying jumbo jet' on March 8:
PETALING JAYA (THE STAR/ASIA NEWS NETWORK) - Residents of Kuda Huvadhoo in Dhaal Atoll in the Maldives reportedly saw a "low-flying jumbo jet" flying over houses early in the morning of March 8, the same day Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 went missing.
In a report by Maldivian daily Haveeru, residents described the aircraft which flew over Kuda Huvadhoo at around 6:15am as being white, with red stripes across it.
This colour scheme is very similar to the livery used by Malaysia Airlines on its aircraft - including the Boeing 777 used for MH370.
Eyewitnesses who saw the aircraft agreed that it was travelling in a north to south-east heading towards Addu, the southern tip of the Maldives, and all commented on the very loud noise the aircraft made when flying over the island.

http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking...-jumbo-jet-march-8-report-20140319
 
tiong
Posts: 10
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:39 pm

Quoting davidzill (Reply 181):
Again with Diego Garcia, you will not land there without expressed permission from military ATC. The base is littered with strategic bombers, including the $3.5 billion B-2 bomber. It is a U.S. Military pit stop. Highly unlikely 370 landed there unnoticed.

I was viewing the local TV station programme about MH 370 few days ago . The pilot (in the tv programme) was explaining about the turnback and the remote probability that the plane was hijacked or technically malfunctioned. According to him, MAS plane has landed in Diego Garcia before when they were contracted to carry the US army to their destinations.
 
djm18
Posts: 109
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:40 pm

Two important questions:

- Do we have a source or confirmation of the NYT story that the turn was programed into the computer?

- I heard on CNN an expert on ACARS systems this morning claim that had there been any sort of mechanical issue with the plane then a message would have been sent even if the airline was not subscribed to the more expensive package. This again would be in a scenario where there was some mechanical issue (electrical fire or something else) that affected the aircraft. Again, I am trying to pull together as much evidence as possible to take this theory off the table.

I too am leaning in the direction of some sort of intervention but feel that we can not responsibly discard other potential theories until we have good hard evidence to the contrary.
 
rcair1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:46 pm

Quoting wxmeddler (Reply 189):

I apologize in advance if this has been reported already but:

I've not seen this report before.
If it is valid:
- It is within the range of the a/c
- It is NOT consistent with the SATCOM ping location.

If the 6:15am time is local to the Maldives - that is 9:15am in Malaysia time - over 1 hr after the last SATCOM ping and shortly after the another would have been expected.

I don't know what to make of this.
rcair1
 
hivue
Posts: 2125
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:48 pm

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 176):
If the new New York Times article about a new waypoint programmed before ACARS went off is accurate

Do you mean before the transponder quit? The waypoints I think were transmitted by ADS-B.

Quoting nakb (Reply 177):
The track calculated from the hourly handshake "pings" will probably have indicated whether it followed a straight path for most of those 6+ hours (either North or South) - but only the arc from the final "ping" has been made public so we can only speculate as to whether it was under active control for the whole period.

The arcs from the "pings" cannot be used to reconstruct a path for the airplane. All they are is sets of possible locations for the plane at each hourly ping. The plane would have actually been at only one of the many possible points for each ping. The investigators are undoubtedly trying to refine the data, but I think it's unlikely they will be able to reconstruct a path.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
rcair1
Posts: 1147
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 8:39 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:49 pm

Quoting DJM18 (Reply 191):
Do we have a source or confirmation of the NYT story that the turn was programed into the computer?

No. See my analysis in the lasted Sanity Check

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 181):
ACARS and FMS (Flight Management System)

I did try to analyze the report for consistency (in an effort to validate it). The report is not self consistent - which is a red flag.

Quoting DJM18 (Reply 191):
I heard on CNN an expert on ACARS systems this morning claim that had there been any sort of mechanical issue with the plane then a message would have been sent

I don't know if this is correct (re subscription). But not if ACARS transmission had been disabled.
rcair1
 
marktci
Posts: 199
Joined: Wed Aug 05, 2009 4:05 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:49 pm

Quoting Trin (Reply 178):
I just don't understand this Goodfellow guy's take on the event. He is taking the Occam's Razor method of deduction and using it as a machete. It seems beyond elementary to me that he could look at what happened with MH370, see the runway on Palau Langkawi, and say to himself (and the internet world) "By George, there's a runway - I've solved it!".

The problem with the Wired post is that it doesn't tell you that it was originally posted on March 13th. It may have been valid then but needs to be updated for what we know now.

Link to original post: https://plus.google.com/106271056358366282907/posts/GoeVjHJaGBz
 
hivue
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Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:26 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:50 pm

Quoting DJM18 (Reply 191):
Do we have a source or confirmation of the NYT story that the turn was programed into the computer?

Given what we know from the limited primary radar data it makes total sense that this is they way it would have been done. (We've talked Occam's razor to death but I think this is a situation where it applies.)

[Edited 2014-03-18 10:04:12]
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
shortstack81
Posts: 40
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:25 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:53 pm

Quoting marktci (Reply 195):
The problem with the Wired post is that it doesn't tell you that it was originally posted on March 13th. It may have been valid then but needs to be updated for what we know now.

Link to original post: https://plus.google.com/106271056358366282907/posts/GoeVjHJaGBz

if you read through the original post, he does update his thoughts. as the original post's comments are now full of media inquiries, i'd expect him to update it sometime during the day today.
 
liquidair
Posts: 266
Joined: Fri May 27, 2011 2:01 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:54 pm

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 192):

logically speaking, if we are to believe what was said by the Malaysian transport minister (that the plane had another 30 mins of fuel left) - if this is true - then either the plane landed and took off again or it had been refuelled and took off again.

question- let's just assume this was a true sighting... the pinging to the satellite may have stopped if the plane was now out of range of the one satellite that receives those pings? would it not have orientated itself onto another satellite?

(according to Mandala there are three)

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 94):
trying to stop my gaseous viscosity go liquid
 
hivue
Posts: 2125
Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:26 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:56 pm

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 186):
Why?: If we had data proving the FMS was reprogrammed - that data would have to come from the aircraft via some communication channel.•-If that channel was gate communication - it happened before takeoff•-If that channel was ACARS (VHF or SATCOM) - it happened after takeoff

Wasn't there a previous post by perhaps zeke that something like the last two waypoints and the next two waypoints get transmitted by ADS-B? This would suggest that they got no future waypoint info once the transponder went dead.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
nakb
Posts: 6
Joined: Tue Mar 18, 2014 10:31 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34

Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:57 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 193):
The arcs from the "pings" cannot be used to reconstruct a path for the airplane. All they are is sets of possible locations for the plane at each hourly ping. The plane would have actually been at only one of the many possible points for each ping. The investigators are undoubtedly trying to refine the data, but I think it's unlikely they will be able to reconstruct a path.

Granted that each individual "ping" only gives rise to an arc, by plotting the arcs from several consecutive pings and making assumptions about speed you can get a feel for a track. However this only works if the plane is following a straight track at more or less constant speed and you will not be able to distinguish between northern and southern alternatives. This was alluded to in the Australian press conference earlier today (see earlier link to recording of that).

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