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GiveMeABreak
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 2:59 pm

zoomed in map 2234 Tomnod posted in Thread 36 by Tapir

https://www.airliners.net/uf/view.fil...?id=194863&filename=phpglNaPz.jpeg
 
JAL
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:10 pm

For the plane to be missing after all this time, is really weird.
Work Hard But Play Harder
 
dc9northwest
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:13 pm

Quoting GiveMeABreak (Reply 50):
zoomed in map 2234 Tomnod posted in Thread 36 by Tapir

https://www.airliners.net/uf/view.fil...?id=194863&filename=phpglNaPz.jpeg

Interesting. Do giant squid live in these waters?
 
Gatorman96
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:13 pm

Quoting GiveMeABreak (Reply 50):
zoomed in map 2234 Tomnod posted in Thread 36 by Tapir

https://www.airliners.net/uf/view.fil...?id=194863&filename=phpglNaPz.jpeg

Waves breaking. This is out in open ocean: No Gulf's or Strait's where the water is relatively calm in comparison. I've looked at a few tiles on this particular map and see wave action/cresting all over the place, which, in turn, may look like debris.
 
flyenthu
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:19 pm

This might have been pointed before, but the change in flight path seems to have been relayed through the ACARS system before it stopped transmitting as per NYT:

"The Times said the changes made to the plane's direction through the Flight Management System were reported back to a maintenance base by ACARS, according to an American official."

Full article in the The Straits Times: http://www.straitstimes.com/the-big-...changed-cockpit-computer-report-20

To me, seems like authentic information. This could be why news outlets haven't backed out of this story.
 
falconkutscher
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:24 pm

There was a lot of speculation in this forum before, how far a 777 could fly / which point in the world it could reach, if it landed on a remote place here or a remote place there etc. etc..., being refueled and used as a weapon.

So IF it landed successfully and IF it was hidden and camouflaged successfully so far and IF it could be refueled without being noticed by somebody, I think it could reach any place in the world. If I would be a bad guy and like to get the maximum endurance possible, I would probably strap out all the unnecessary weight (seats, galleys, lavatories, emergency slides / life rafts, landing lights, ....) and replace all the weight with additional fuel tanks. It should be easy to connect the additional fuel-tanks with the fuel system of the aircraft - the difficult part would only be to certify the systems. Something a potential terrorist would most probably not pay a lot of attention at (the certification).

I am quit sure, there are some specialists here among us, who could make a rough calculation, how much weight one could get out of the aircraft by removing just everything you don't need to just fly the aircraft from A to B. If you replace all that weight with fuel, how far could the aircraft fly?

Gentlemen, start your calculation - who's first to have a clue?

Have a nice day everybody,

FK
 
MIAspotter
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:29 pm

I have a couple of questions...

If we throw in another ¨suicide by flight crew¨ scenario, what are the chances of the Cpt or F/O switching off the CVR and the FDR? can they be switched off? I guess being electrical systems they could, perhaps one of them switched them off (or pulled the fuse) rendering the plane untraceable in the event of ditching.

We all know FDR´s have beacons that activate as soon as they get in contact with water (which was the case of AF447) but do the 777 have the same systems?

MIAspotter.
Nos vamos de Vueling?
 
chieft
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:29 pm

If the aircraft has been hijacked and landed somewhere, I wonder, what the purpose of this hijacking is?

Usually hijackers claim something; so do certain political motivated groups, which might be involved.

And in the end, I wonder how they manage to supply about 300 souls with the necessary water and food - and all that without being spotted by anybody.
Aircraft are marginal costs with wings.
 
psolk
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:30 pm

Quoting capri (Reply 43):

Depends which Sim and which files they are referring to. In FSX it is not unusual to delete any unnecessary files as the Sim is 32 bit technology in a 64 bit world and suffers from serious memory/virtual address space issues resulting in Out of memory errors. They haven't been specific as to WHAT files were deleted.
 
flyenthu
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:31 pm

Quoting flyenthu (Reply 54):
"The Times said the changes made to the plane's direction through the Flight Management System were reported back to a maintenance base by ACARS, according to an American official."

My hunch is that this flight change plan was transmitted at the 1:07 am ACARS report, which was the last transmission. It is now established that 1:07am was the last transmission, but now the contents of that is trickling out.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:33 pm

Quoting MIAspotter (Reply 56):
can they be switched off?

yes

Quoting MIAspotter (Reply 56):
We all know FDR´s have beacons that activate as soon as they get in contact with water (which was the case of AF447) but do the 777 have the same systems?

yes
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
flood
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:33 pm

Quoting GiveMeABreak (Reply 50):
zoomed in map 2234 Tomnod posted in Thread 36 by Tapir

Based on the coordinates, that appears to be off the Vietnamese coast... seems rather unlikely at this point.

Quoting capri (Reply 36):
link no longer works, no wonder why??

Because you're pasting a corrupted link. The article's still there... nothing fishy going on  http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/articl...fficking-camp-may-face-deportation
 
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pvjin
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:36 pm

Quoting psolk (Reply 58):
Depends which Sim and which files they are referring to. In FSX it is not unusual to delete any unnecessary files as the Sim is 32 bit technology in a 64 bit world and suffers from serious memory/virtual address space issues resulting in Out of memory errors. They haven't been specific as to WHAT files were deleted.

Or could be just some scenery / aircraft addons that didn't work as intended and got removed because of that.
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
hivue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:38 pm

Quoting flyenthu (Reply 54):
This might have been pointed before, but the change in flight path seems to have been relayed through the ACARS system before it stopped transmitting as per NYT:

"The Times said the changes made to the plane's direction through the Flight Management System were reported back to a maintenance base by ACARS, according to an American official."

Full article in the The Straits Times: http://www.straitstimes.com/the-big-...changed-cockpit-computer-report-20

To me, seems like authentic information. This could be why news outlets haven't backed out of this story.

The NST article looks like Monday's information. Apparently today's press conference debunked the idea that new FMS waypoints entered were transmitted with the 1:07L ACARS transmission.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
rcair1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:43 pm


Sanity Check - 3/19/2014 15:00Z
There is (will be) a link to this post in my profile under "homepage"

Format updates.
Thanks to those to IM'd me about the length and format. The consensus was most data, delete/simplify old and but highlight changes.
I've implemented this change in this report.
New/Changes lines will have this background color. All changes are relative to the previous Sanity Check.
Minor wording/grammar/spelling changes are NOT highlighted.
When I simplified/consolidated a section - I noted it but did not mark the deletions.

3/19/2014 15:00Z update since last Sanity Check.
The facts have not changed much. The a/c has not been found.
I've tried to be as factually accurate as I can - but I'm not an expert in each system - so if there factual errors please advise.
Significant updates to ADS-C/Way-points/FMS Programing.
Update on Maldives.
Simplified/consolidates some sections that were redundant.

First a synopsis (dropped some old 'breaking news' items)
The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing
The last ACARS transmission was 01:07 local.
Reports surfaced yesterday that the ship either:
Turned before the last voice transmission - or-
Had new way-points entered before the last voice transmission.
See ADS-C/FMS/Way-points sections.
The last comms were "All right, good night" transmitted to Malaysia at hand-off to Vietnam control. Vietnam was not contacted. It has been reported it was the First Officer's voice.
NOTE: Saying "good night" or "so long" or "see you" is very common for hand-offs.
The transponder stopped transmitting at 1:21 - loss of secondary radar.
There are reports of a climb to 45K, uneven descent and some changes in altitude. Since this is based on primary radar - altitude data is somewhat uncertain. The last has been reported as 29,500ft but that seems in dispute.
The validity of the 45K reports is being questioned.
There are subsequent primary radar returns west over Malacca Strait and then north west. Since it is primarily radar - a reflection - it does NOT identify the a/c, however it has been correlated with SATCOM pings so confidence is high that the returns are from MH370
SATCOM system pings continued for 7+ (last ping at 08:11 local) hrs after LOS (loss of signal)
SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on correlation to signal strength there are two loci that indication aircraft distance from the Satellite.
These are not paths and I have changed my language to reflect that. They represent a distance from the satellite.
Corridor one is north over Andaman Sea, Bay of Bengal as far as Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and is consistent with primary radar.
Corridor two is south over the India Ocean west of Australia. We've had no reports of radar signals in that area.
The last SATCOM ping was at 8:11 am Malaysian time. At that time it would be dark on the north radius and light over the south radius.
SATCOM pings are hourly - so the 8:11 ping could be up to 1 hour before the aircraft stopped 'pinging'.
We have no ELT signal detected.
While authorities (Malaysian) have not confirmed this is a hijacking or purposeful event - it is believed that is highly likely by most, however, motivation is unknown.
Debris reported by Greek oil tanker has already been reported as not relevant.
Recent reports attributed to the FBI that the plane 'could have landed' and sent a satellite signal from the ground appear to be just confirming what we already knew - that the SATCOM pings could come from an a/c in flight, or powered up on the ground.
There have been no reports that a Rolls Royce EH report was sent upon landing.
Recent report from the Maldives (island Kuda Huvadhoo) of a low flying aircraft at 6:15am on the 8th. Reported as not valid..

Time-line (from CNN)
1.07 am - Last ACARS transmission.
1.19 am - Last verbal communication "All right, good night" from the plane; believed to be the co-pilot
1.21 am - Transponder stopped transmitting (turned off or failed)
1.30 am - Civilian (primary) radar lost contact
1.37 am - Expected ACARS transmission; not received
2.15 am - Last military primary radar contact
8.11 am - Last (hourly) satellite handshake


ACARS
Some deletions in this section to simplify..
ACARS is an automated aircraft communication system that transmits a/c information, including navigation, operations, maintenance, etc to ATC and maintenance facilities.
ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight.
ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.
This last fact (only EHM) is somewhat questions because of 3/18 reports of new way-points being programmed. This would require ADS-C
ACARS communicates via VHF, HF or SATCOM. The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.
ACARS can be instructed not to use SATCOM, HF or VHF from the Cockpit. This would effectively stop ACARS from sending data. Access to the EE bay is not required.
The last ACARS transmission was at 1:07. The next was expected at 1:37 and was not received. This means ACARS communication was disabled between those times. This could be action by the flight-deck crew or system failure.

ACARS data from MH370
The ACARS system sent 2 engine health reports to Rolls Royce, both prior to the LOS event.
The Rolls Royce page indicates that a 'snapshot' of engine data would be sent at: takeoff, climb, cruise and landing. We know 2 ACARS Engine Health reports were received, consistent with the 1st two.
The last engine health report was received at 1:07am. The next was expected at 1:37 am and was not received. This indicates that the transmission of ACARS data was disabled between 1:07 and 1:37, but not when during that period.
The Engine Health report received prior to LOS had 'interesting' altitude data/fluctuations including 40K drop in a minute. That data is suspect.
There seems to be some indication that ADS-C data with way-point information was included in the last ACARS report.
This also seems to have been dismissed by the Malaysian authorityies today (!!)

ADS-C Tutorial (short).
ADS-C stands for Aircraft Dependent Surveillance - Contract.
The "Dependent" is because it "depends" on the aircraft taking action - as opposed to "independent" like radar..
Contract means there must be a "contract" or "agreement" set up by the controllers an/or crew to send information.
ADS-C is not required to be used.
ADS-C can be programed to report periodically, on demand, on event. It can be initiated by the crew in an emergency.
Various data groups can be sent. The one relevant to this discussion is the Predicted Route Group which includes ETA, altitude, lat/long at next way-point and next+1 way-point.
Prior to 3/18 we had no information that ADS-C was being used, however on 3/18 it was reported that we "know" that new way-points were entered in the FMS prior to LOS.
The only way we know of for this information to be available to authorities is if the ACAR's report at 1:07 included the "Predicted Route Group."
ADS-C is transmitted via ACARS which can use SATCOM, VHF or HF.
ADS-C does not transmit via transponder (thanks for that correction)
A good tutorial on ADS-C is available at http://prezi.com/pcuvxhcklsda/ads-c-overview/

Way-point Entry Data.
On 3/18 authorities reported that new way-points had been entered into the a/c FMS BEFORE the last communication at 1:19.
This information could only be provided by ADS-C in the 1:07 ACARS report.
It was also reported that the aircraft had already turned off course prior to 1:19.
That seems inconsistent with secondary radar data which did not show a course change.
Opinion: I believe "experts" are confusing new way-points being programed and executed.
This is consistent with statements by several "experts" who seem to be really "experts"
It was noted that pilots sometimes program way-points but never execute (fly to them).
After take-off way-points are changed in the cockpit. Experts say non-pilots can't do it, but, in fact, it is not hard and many 'simulator' people do it all the time.
Summary:
Reports are that new way-points (off course) were added to the FMS after takeoff (or perhaps just before).
This information would come from ADS-C in the last ACARS report at 1:07.
This requires flight deck access pointing at either the crew or a breech of cockpit security.
All of this data seems to be based on the same NYT report that is being repeated.
We have not heard if the "new" way-points match those reported earlier in the primary radar track.

Way-point Tracks
A series of way-points reported that match the primary radar tracks in/near Malacca Strait.
These way-points line up with the direction indicated by the primary radar returns and Inmarsat data to the north.
While many believe the aircraft was under control - we cannot conclude if these way-point were used, or just coincidentally along the path.
A 777 can be programed to follow a series of way-point automatically - this is normal operating procedure and a 777 pilot would need no extra practice/training to do it. (Relevant to pilot flight simulator ownership)

SATCOM
SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.
SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.
The SATCOM system on MH370 was connecting to Inmarsat 3 satellites. In the area covered, the only satellite with coverage is IOR.
Big version: Width: 720 Height: 516 File size: 199kb
Since only 1 satellite has coverage, no triangulation is possible. All that can be determined is distance from the satellite. This has been used to define 2 potential loci were the a/c could have been.
North Corridor
Big version: Width: 1024 Height: 768 File size: 114kb
.
South Corridor
Big version: Width: 1024 Height: 768 File size: 71kb
We do not know if these corridors are defined by the last SATCOM ping, or multiple pings.
We cannot distinguish if the a/c was flying or parked on the ground (powered up) when these pings were sent.
We have not been told how the distance from IOR was estimated - it could be signal strength or time of flight (signal propagation time).Opinion: as an EE I think signal strength is unlikely - it would depend on things such as a/c orientation. Time of flight - which is how GPS works - seems more likely - however others have pointed out this requires precise timing.
NOTE: While these may appear as paths - they are not. They are simply a set of potential locations based upon ping data. The aircraft could have been in a constant standard turn circle somewhere along one of the loci (red lines) and the satellite could not tell. We only know it was somewhere along those lines.

SATCOM Pings
The SATCOM system sends (or responds to) periodic 'pings' to/from the satellites (hourly). These 'pings' are a network communication that says "I am here."
SATCOM pings are not communicating a/c status, they are part of the communications channel. They are akin to registration pings on a cell system.
The last pings were detected at 8:11am Malaysia time. This does not mean the aircraft went down or landed at this time, only that the last ping was 8:11. Source I've seen indicate the pings are hourly - but that is not confirmed.
SATCOM pings provide no aircraft heading, speed or altitude information, however, distance from the Satellite can be estimated, and ONLY distance.
Based on analysis of the SATCOM pings by Inmarsat, two possible corridors have been predicted based upon a radius from the satellite picking up the pings.
SATCOM pings would be sent as long as the system (aircraft) was power up and withing coverage area. So, on the ground, if powered up (thanks to mandala499).
People have asked if SATCOM pings could come from a crashed plane if the right parts survived.
Very unlikely. The system is not self contained, the equipment, power and antennas are separate.
Recent news about the fact that the plane could have landed really appears to be just a restatement of known data.
Specifically - the SATCOM pings could have been sent from an aircraft powered, but landed - or from an aircraft in flight.
Clarification: The key is the system is powered, whether by engines, apu or shore line (on the ground).
Again: These pings to not contain ANY data about the aircraft position, speed, altitude, etc.
The 'location' data inferred from the SATCOM pings is based analysis of those signals which gives an approximate distance from the satellite to the a/c.
Since the satellite is in geosynchronous orbit (~22,000 miles), the difference in distance between a flying aircraft and one on the ground is probably not measurable.

Fire Theory (Was Cargo and Lithium Batteries)
OPINION: I've tended to discount this based on my belief as a FF that the a/c could not continue to fly for 7+ hours. However, recent discussions have caused me to re-evaluate that.
Regarding the fire source:
One hypothesis that has been presented is that a fire broke out incapacitated the crew/passengers or caused hypoxia that did so.
(See http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/16/opinio...er-malaysia-flight-370/)
The hypothesis is:
A fire broke out causing the crew to disable multiple systems (or disabled them itself)
The crew was successful in containing/extinguishing the fire - but then was disable due to smoke and/or hypoxia.
The a/c, not on autopilot, continued to fly till fuel starvation occurred.
Key to this theory is that the aircraft, not on autopilot and not controlled, could remain in stable flight.
For most a/c- this would not be possible. But for the 777 it may - provided the flight control systems did not revert to a degraded state.
Specifically - the 777 will self trim (pitch up/down) to maintain speed. As long as these pitch up/down excursions did not cause stall (too high) or CFIT (crash), the a/c could fly.
The 777 also has bank protections - so banks induced by trim/turbulence would be damped and unlike a non FBW plane that may spiral in - the 777 could conceivable continue flying.
This is by no means proven or accepted, but it seems credible considering the advanced flight controls of an aircraft like the 777 as compared to a non-FBW aircraft.
This does not explain any purposeful heading changes except perhaps the first one which could be a turn to return to safety by the crew.
Other turns that appear to be FMS driven would be just happenstance.
It would be very interesting to hear Boeing's take on this - or to experiment with a 777.
There are reports that the cargo in MH370 did not receive normal X-ray screening (though this has recently been weakly denied)
There are reports of a shipment of lithium batteries on the a/c and that perhaps they caused a fire.
The hold of a passenger a/c like the 777 is protected with Halon and detectors - so a fire in the hold would be detected and suppressed.
A fire in the hold is unlikely to impact flight systems or EE bay. Freight a/c are different (thanks Pihero)
Fire suppression systems in the 777 include: Engines, APU, Cargo Holds, Toilets and portable extinguishers in Cabin/Galleys, Flight Deck, Crew Rest. Unprotected - EEbay and Wheel wells.(thanks Pihero)

Hypoxia and Pressurization
There has been lots of speculation about loss of pressurization in the aircraft and what that would do to passengers and crew.
IMPORTANT NOTE: all of this applies to cabin pressure - not the pressure outside.Just climbing to 45K would not exposed the passengers to that altitude - the aircraft would have to be depressurized.
In the case of loss of cabin pressure - O2 mask would deploy automatically.
The pilots cannot disable this above 13,500 feet - they can release the masks.
Passengers masks would last 12-20 minutes. Portable crew (FA) bottles ~30minutes. Cockpit crew longer.
Time of useful consciousness (not to loss of consciousness) will range from 1-3 minutes at 30K to 9-15 seconds at 43K. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_of_useful_consciousness)
above 40,000 ft cabin altitude - positive pressure oxygen is required - passenger masks do not do this and would not be effective.
Because of this the a/c must be certified able to descend and pilots demonstrate an emergency descent to ~10,000 ft in 2 minutes.
The actual regulation is that passengers cannot be exposed to a cabin altitude of more than 25K for more than 2 minutes, or more than 40K for any time. (A380 got an exception to this rule.)

Cabin depressurizing by Pilots (this is not as solid as I would like in terms of facts).
NOTE: Above 40K passenger masks are ineffective - positive pressure O2 is required.
Question: Can the pilots 'depressurize' the plane? Yes.
The FAA regulations state the a/c "must be designed so that occupants will not be exposed to cabin pressure altitudes in excess of 15,000 feet (4,600 m) after any probable failure condition in the pressurization system"
So for normal 'failures' - no, the cabin will remain below 15K.
However, per member mandala499 the pilots could: 1) Open outflow valves, 2) turn off bleed air. The cabin would then depressurize to current altitude.
I have no data on how quickly this would happen - but I think it would take minutes at least.
Let's investigate the sequence required and how that is related to the reported "climb to 45K":
1) Pilots (or whomever is in control) switches to manual pressurization, turns off bleed, opens outflow valves.
2) Cabin altitude climbs above 13,500 and passenger masks deploy - there is no way to prevent that. At that point passengers and cabin crew know.
3) Presuming the pilots do not descent - passengers O2 will last 12-20 minutes. After that, depending on the cabin altitude they will loose effective consciousness (not loose consciousness, but effective consciousness).
4) Cabin crew O2 will run out.
5) During this time, the flight crew O2 will operate (and last longer)
6) At some point - depending on cabin altitude - those not on O2 will die (no other way to say it).

The question becomes - how long would this sequence take?
Below 40K cabin altitude - and once the cabin is depressurized- minimum 12-30 minutes for all passengers and cabin crew to become disabled.
Above 40K cabin altitude - I do not know - w/o positive pressure oxygen people will loose effective consciousness in seconds.
With O2, but not positive pressure - will this be extended?
If you descend below 40K with non positive pressure O2 masks still operating - people may recover depending on duration of hypoxia?
Summary:
It appears flight crew (or knowledgeable hijackers) could depressurize the cabin and disable all.
O2 masks would deploy so passengers and cabin crew would know.
This would not be an instantaneous procedure - the biggest factor is how long would it take to depressurize the a/c.

CRV/FDR Data
The CVR (cockpit voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder) do not transmit data in flight.
They do emit sonic pings if immersed. These will last a minimum of 30 days. We can expect sonar is being used to listen for them.
The pinger operates at 37.5KHz 106.5dp re 1μPa. (thanks k83713)
Maximum depth of beacon detection in Normal Conditions: 1-2km
Maximum depth of beacon detection in Good Conditions: 4-5km
Localising a pinger from the surface in shallow water is relatively easy, as described above. In deep water, the detection equipment should be installed on a self-propelled underwater vehicle, presupposing that the position is already known to within the maximum 2-3km detection range.
More Info:http://www.hydro-international.com/i...Deepwater_Black_Box_Retrieval.html
The CVR reportedly is a 120 minute CVR so it would contain only the last 120 minutes of flight (presuming it did not fail or was turned off prior to that).
I don't have data form the recording time of the FDR, but it is typically much longer.

ELT
The ELT, or emergency locater transmitter is mounted in the rear of the aircraft - difficult to access in flight.
The ELT is battery powered - independent built in power source. It is this source that is suspect in causing the 787 fire at Heathrow.
The ELT will be trigged by G forces in a crash. It will not operate under water.
The ELT can be triggered from the cockpit - it is a hardwired switch not dependent on computer systems.
The ELT transmits on the guard frequency (VHF) and on 406MHz to satellites. If it had been triggered (above water), satellites would have heard it and been able to locate the a/c.
Clarification: there are additional manual ELT's in the cabin that can be activated by crew members, but do not include g-force sensing.

Primary versus Secondary Radar (brief tutorial)
Primary radar is based on the original military usage. It sends out a strong (KW to MW) signal and looks for a reflection from something.
Primary radar provides distance and location. Comparing returns speed can be determined. Strength of return can indicate size.
Stealth a/c and ships are designed to absorb or miss-direct the reflection so primary radar cannot see them.
Primary radar does not depend on the transponder, so turning off a transponder will not make an a/c disappear from primary.
Primary radar is less prevalent than secondary - and more typically military tho ATC's do use it.
Secondary Radar is really not Radar in the defined sense. It is directional communication.
In secondary radar a directional signal is sent out (much less powerful than primary). Any a/c with a transponder that receives it will respond (the transponder responds) with information about the aircraft.
Combined with the direction of the outgoing beam, the time of flight information and returned information, the a/c location and identity (and other info depending on the mode) is returned.
Secondary radar is the primary method used by ATC.
If the transponder fails or is turned off - secondary radar will not see the a/c.
In the case of MH370
The transponder was turned off - so the a/c disappeared from secondary (ATC) radar.
A target was tracked west, then northwest using primary radar. That target was correlated with SATCOM pings help determine it was MH370.

Airworthiness Directive
The airworthiness directive about corrosion near the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship.
The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antenna

Aircraft Type and Fuel State
The aircraft was a Boeing 777-200ER. MTOW 656,000 lbs, 301 3 class passengers (standard Boeing Config - does not reflect MH specific config.)
The aircraft could land in 6000 ft, or much less at high risk. As little as 3000ft has been stated, but it could not take off from there.
The aircraft would need a hard surface to land - this is heavier that has been done on steel matts.
It is reported the aircraft 45 to 60 minutes extra fuel. This would amount to about 7-7.5 hrs of fuel. This is a normal amount for this route.
The aircraft should have been able to fly about 30 minutes after the last SATCOM ping at 8:11.
The figure at this link show max range for the 777-200ER. NOTE: MH370 was not fueled for this range. http://www.boeing.com/assets/pdf/com.../777_range_singapore.pdf

Search Areas (including those that have be halted)
Along the planed route. I believe searching in this area is ending or decreasing based on new data indicating the a/c is not there
West over the Malacca strait
North west of Malacca strait
Along the two loci predicted by the SATCOM pings which continue north to Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and south to the India Ocean.
These are huge search areas - I do not have a good handle on what assets are deployed where
It appears the north loci is considered more likely because of primary radar signals that roughly correlate.
I would expect review of primary radar west of Australia is in process if not done.
Today it seems the south route is being focused on - but there is confusion.
The search area are shrinking due to improved intelligence.
The USS Kidd has been pulled off, but other US resources are operating.

Mobile phones
We continue to have lots of discussion on "mobile phones" - can the connect in flight, etc.
We don't have any reports or evidence of that any passenger or crew mobile phone has registered with any network.
Until we have that data or reports - I believe the mobile phone discussions are not getting us anywhere.
UPDATE: This subject continues to be discussed. But, we have had no reports of cell phones registering with towers - we are in a loop here.

Theories and Conspiracy Theories
Currently, it seems most believe there is some positive action here - hijacker or crew based.
Opinion: Mostly, I believe this is because a mechanical failure that selectively terminates communication, incapacitates the crew/passengers, but then allows the a/c to fly on uncontrolled for 7 hours seems unlikely.
There are lots of theories out there - some clearly "conspiracy based" some just factual. Often it is hard to distinguish.
Here are a few.
A fire broke out that incapacitated passengers and crew - but allowed to aircraft to fly on it's own till starvation.
Corollary to this - the fire would have to disable comms, or cause the crew to disable comms in an attempt to fight it.
Corollary to this - the fire drove the pilots out of the cockpit.
Corollary to this - the fire disabled comms, nav and systems, and the crew - still alive - got lost trying to return.
The a/c was hijacked and flown to a remote strip to be used in a future terrorist act.
Corollary to this - The breadth of the countries searching alone makes this problematic, but it is not impossible.
The aircraft "shadowed" either a KLM or SIA aircraft to hide from radar then turned off the track and landed.
Questions raised - lot of discussion about if this was possible.
A mechanical failure depressurized the a/c and disabled the crew/passengers either rapidly or without their knowledge.
Corollary to this - What disabled comms?
One of the pilots hijacked the plane to commit suicide. (See Pilot Conspiracy below).
The plane was hijacked, either with or without crew involvement.
Despite the belief this is incident required human actions - we have no evidence of that. Rather - no other theory seems credible.
Freescale engineers have been hijacked for sensitive US data. Opinion: As an engineer who has worked with Freescale - I find that unsupportable. Companies send groups of employees around all the time. While many companies have policies about the # of executives on a flight - that typically is not enforced on regular employees.
There was something in the Cargo worth stealing - which is why it was not screened. This would require involvement of lots of people on the ground. Why not steal it on the ground.
The plane was full of undeclared gold.Gold is very heavy - what would you declare the cargo as?
The US hijacked the 777 using on board FBW technology to fly it like a drone to Diego Garcia (this one wins the insanity case).
Related: There has been a claim by counter terrorist expert that this could be a "cyber hijack" - a malicious attack of a FBW a/c. I don't know where to go with this - only reporting it because I'm trying to stay ahead of the next craze. Opinion: (speaking as an EE) this is the stuff dreams are made of (bad dreams).

Pilot Related Conspiracy Theories (some of this is my opinion).
The crew and passengers are a focus of investigation. Particularly the crew, because of the difficulty of managing an external cockpit intrusion.
The pilot has received a lot of attention because: 1) He supports opposition politics, 2) He has a mongo flight simulator, 3) There are rumors of family problems (debunked).
To address the data on a few of these:
1) The pilot supports opposition politics and may have been at a trial of the opposition leader (confirmed 'ordinary' member of opposition party). Opinion: What is the motive for suicide in this case?
2) The pilot has a very fancy flight simulator. People claim he used it to for this. Opinion: A 777 pilot does not need to train for the flying done - he knows how to do that stuff already. What he needs it planning for violent action/takeover. A flight simulator is no help.
Note - there has been some discussion that the pilot used this for training of accomplices.
3) There are rumors of family problems reported from China. This has been reported as untrue.

IN summary what we know is.
The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.
It seems we have data that says that way-points (undefined as yet) were added to the FMS prior to the 1:07 ACARS report.
There is evidence from SATCOM and Radar that the a/c traveled west - then most likely north west.
Hourly SATCOM signals show the a/c was operating till at least 8:11am Malaysia time, over 7 hrs total flight time
We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.

Additional thoughts.
A hijacking or positive intervention by human agency seems likely.
The erratic altitude and course may indicate a struggle on board.
While we would like to believe the a/c landed safely somewhere, that seems unlikely to have happened unobserved.


That is all.
Respectfully Submitted - rcair1


[Edited 2014-03-19 09:42:46]
rcair1
 
flyenthu
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:48 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 63):
The NST article looks like Monday's information. Apparently today's press conference debunked the idea that new FMS waypoints entered were transmitted with the 1:07L ACARS transmission.

Hmmm!! WHat next now?!! SO much info, myth, etc. in this. That will be debunking of two highly reported items almost back to back:

1. The "event" unfolded before copilot's last message.
2. The route change keyed in before copilot's message.
 
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rotating14
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:48 pm

I'm curious to know if this flight splashed softly in the ocean, how long would it take to sink to the ocean floor? I'm thinking of the US Airways flight that ditched in the Hudson River.
 
capri
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:56 pm

Quoting flood (Reply 61):

Yesterday was different link than today
By the way, anything with this story of mh370 cld be fishy, so don't discount anything
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:56 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 66):

I'm curious to know if this flight splashed softly in the ocean, how long would it take to sink to the ocean floor? I'm thinking of the US Airways flight that ditched in the Hudson River.

It has been suggested that a successful ditching with the 777 is wildly unlikely because of the size of the engines. The life rafts have ELTs and would have been activated by someone when deployed. How long it would take to sink I imagine would depend on how much fuel it had. Air is less dense than fuel. I don't think anyone's tried to sink a 777 and I don't think any of us have access to any computational models that would be accurate enough.

It is incredibly unlikely that it landed in the water intact.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
flood
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:03 pm

Quoting capri (Reply 67):
Yesterday was different link than today

I had posted your link from yesterday.
http://tinyurl.com/qbemlvv
 
PacNWjet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:03 pm

Quoting chieft (Reply 57):
If the aircraft has been hijacked and landed somewhere, I wonder, what the purpose of this hijacking is?

Usually hijackers claim something; so do certain political motivated groups, which might be involved.

As someone posted in a previous thread, sometimes actions speak louder than words. The disappearance of the airplane could be the action that speaks these words:

"We made a plane disappear. You (our enemies) don't know how we made it happen. We could make it happen again. Be afraid."

And hence, terror is created without speaking a word.
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:09 pm

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 64):
It seems we have data that says that way-points (undefined as yet) were added to the FMS prior to the 1:07 ACARS report.

But what about Dalavia's post 180 in the previous part regarding today's press conference:

"In the press conference, it was repeatedly referred to as a 'search and rescue' operation.

It was confirmed that no way points has been entered for MH370 beyond IGARI to Beijing."

BTW, thanks again for keeping us all sane. I know it's a big task.

[Edited 2014-03-19 09:10:32]
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
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CARST
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:11 pm

Quoting PacNWjet (Reply 70):

But that would only make sense if the terror group behind this plan would say "we did it. and you won't find out how we did it.". As long as there is no group stating they did it, most sane people will believe this was a crash due some technical problems or a suicidal pilot or first officer.
 
djm18
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:12 pm

rcair1:

Thank you again for the sanity check, it is the best summary of this incident and should be posted at the top of each thread so that anyone wanting to post can quickly get up to speed on things...it should actually be made required reading prior to posting  . The idea of highlighting new material is brilliant.

Again, thanks !!!
 
hivue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:12 pm

Quoting PacNWjet (Reply 70):
"We made a plane disappear. You (our enemies) don't know how we made it happen. We could make it happen again. Be afraid."

This only works if "we" identify themselves.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:20 pm

This

Quoting hivue (Reply 71):
It was confirmed that no way points has been entered for MH370 beyond IGARI to Beijing."BTW, thanks again for keeping us all sane. I know it's a big task.

The exact quote in the press conference according to CNN

Quote:
there is no additional waypoint on MH370's documented flight plan, which depicts normal routing all the way to Beijing.

Source: http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/19/wo...malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html

The quote is vague that we really cannot draw any conclusions on whether waypoints were entered or not, as the word 'documented' can be interpreted in different ways.
 
747megatop
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:25 pm

Quoting PacNWjet (Reply 70):
don't know how we made it happen.

I think the world pretty much knows how they made it happen (turn off ACARS, transponder and comms. Fly out into a big Ocean with sparse radar coverage or over land with questionable radar coverage). Question is why, who and where.
 
IADCA
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:30 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 74):
This only works if "we" identify themselves.

Why does it require that they identify themselves? If the aim is purely to terrify people (rather than a specific behavioral or political outcome), anonymity is even better than an identified source.
 
edmountain
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:30 pm

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 64):
IN summary what we know is. (This has NOT changed)
• The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.
• It seems we have data that says that way-points (undefined as yet) were added to the FMS prior to the 1:07 ACARS report.
• There is evidence from SATCOM and Radar that the a/c traveled west - then most likely north west.
• Hourly SATCOM signals show the a/c was operating till at least 8:11am Malaysia time, over 7 hrs total flight time
• We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.

Thanks for the sanity checks.

One trivial note: you say this section has not changed, but you did change it  

Anyway, more importantly, there are several posts on this current thread saying that the data being added to the FMS prior to 0107h has been debunked. Your sanity check says otherwise. Have you debunked the debunking? Are you waiting for more information? Or are things just too fluid?
 
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rotating14
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:31 pm

http://www.weather.com/tv/tvshows/am...s-plane-flight-370-update-20140317

I'm not sure if this was posted here but this article sheds light on deleted files from his flight simulator.
 
65mustang
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:32 pm

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 64):
Clarification: there are additional manual ELT's in the cabin that can be activated by crew members, but do not include g-force sensing.

Great job rcair1 on your sanity check. If it was read by all of the reporters, there would be a lot less confusion. Are these particular ELTs the ones located on the slide/raft in the door? If one was activated at 29500 alt traveling 500mph would it be seen? I read that a GPS that a person uses to navagate a car does not work in a plane because it is moving too fast for satellite triangulation. I know my ipad could not locate satellites on a recent trip. Do these ELTs have the same kind of GPS as used in an automobile and are the ELTs designed to be a locating device stationary on the ground?
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:33 pm

Quoting IADCA (Reply 77):
Why does it require that they identify themselves? If the aim is purely to terrify people (rather than a specific behavioral or political outcome), anonymity is even better than an identified source.

Because investigators might not attribute it to terrorism and default to some other explanation blaming it as an isolated incident which would then be slowly forgotten and some changes implemented to prevent it from happening again. The entire point of the attack would be lost and no one would know you even attacked or attribute it to an attack (And the lack of tracking problem would be fixed as well closing the attack route from further exploitation)
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:34 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 74):
Quoting PacNWjet (Reply 70):"We made a plane disappear. You (our enemies) don't know how we made it happen. We could make it happen again. Be afraid."This only works if "we" identify themselves.

And anyway, with so many people willing to concadenate extraordinary coincidences to explain this event and to believe in them, if terrorists actually had this strategy to reivindicate, I think they should feel more than dissapointed.

[Edited 2014-03-19 09:36:48]
variety is the spice of life; that's what made the "old times" so good
 
David L
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:34 pm

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 75):
The quote is vague that we really cannot draw any conclusions on whether waypoints were entered or not, as the word 'documented' can be interpreted in different ways.

It says to me that they have no evidence of any waypoints being programmed into the FMS that would be inconsistent with the expected route to Beijing. I missed the original announcement of this story - is it possible that "an expert" told a reporter that there may have been an ACARS message containing the next two waypoints which would reveal if the FMS had been reprogrammed and this was incorrectly reported?
 
sbkom
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:35 pm

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 64):
Format updates

Thanks rcair1, this is wonderful! These reports (sanity checks) are great help!
 
rcair1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:35 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 71):
"In the press conference, it was repeatedly referred to as a 'search and rescue' operation.

It was confirmed that no way points has been entered for MH370 beyond IGARI to Beijing."

BTW, thanks again for keeping us all sane. I know it's a big task.

Yeah - I absolutely don't know what to think.....
rcair1
 
hivue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:40 pm

Quoting David L (Reply 83):
It says to me that they have no evidence of any waypoints being programmed into the FMS that would be inconsistent with the expected route to Beijing

In the press conference they apparently referred to the "flight plan," not the FMS.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 75):
The quote is vague that we really cannot draw any conclusions on whether waypoints were entered or not, as the word 'documented' can be interpreted in different ways.

The Malaysians couldn't be any more confusing if they tried (which may be what they're doing).
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
rcair1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:40 pm

Quoting edmountain (Reply 78):
One trivial note: you say this section has not changed, but you did change it  

Dang!

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 80):
Great job rcair1 on your sanity check. If it was read by all of the reporters, there would be a lot less confusion. Are these particular ELTs the ones located on the slide/raft in the door? If one was activated at 29500 alt traveling 500mph would it be seen? I read that a GPS that a person uses to navagate a car does not work in a plane because it is moving too fast for satellite triangulation. I know my ipad could not locate satellites on a recent trip. Do these ELTs have the same kind of GPS as used in an automobile and are the ELTs designed to be a locating device stationary on the ground?

Yes - these ELT's are located in various places, slide/rafts, etc. I think it may vary by aircraft.

I don't know if they would work if activated in flight - but I don't think there is any real problem with them other than, perhaps, getting a signal in/out of the a/c.

Secret - I have turned on the GPS in my Droid while flying commercial. If I sit at the window and hold it at the window - it will lock on just fine.

Maps don't work - because I don't have map data - but if I look at the raw GPS data - I get speed, altitude, lat/long heading - all that stuff.

I think the issue about "car Navigation GPS's" is related to the the mapping functions not the GPS functions.

-rcair1
rcair1
 
IADCA
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:41 pm

Quoting tomlee (Reply 81):
Because investigators might not attribute it to terrorism and default to some other explanation blaming it as an isolated incident which would then be slowly forgotten and some changes implemented to prevent it from happening again. The entire point of the attack would be lost and no one would know you even attacked or attribute it to an attack (And the lack of tracking problem would be fixed as well closing the attack route from further exploitation)

If investigators wrongly attributed it to something other than intentional action (something that they don't seem to be doing), then you could do it again, and if you really wanted to scare people, maybe you would. Perhaps the changes to the tracking problem would have been made by then, maybe not, but either way all that would allow you to do is find the damn plane after they crash it. I think most people who are terrified by terrorists are more afraid of death than they are of not being found afterwards.
 
nycdave
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:43 pm

This may be a stupid question - and/or one already answered. Apologies if it is, but I haven't been able to find it so far.

Regarding the last Inmarsat pings -

1. Since all they could detect was the angle, I'm assuming the "corridors" marked out are simply parts of the full circle that were within the range of the aircraft and the last known position... Correct?

2. If so, where would the rest of the angle-matching arc fall? (I'm assuming they fall out of fuel range for the a/c, but I'd still be curious)

3. How certain can we be that the last ping was along one of these corridors - how accurate can you be determining the correct arc this way? Can atmospheric disturbance/refraction result in a displaced signal?

Thanks anyone who can answer those - or already has! (like many, I've been pretty diligently tracking the threads, but a man's gotta sleep sometime!)
 
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N328KF
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:47 pm

Quoting IADCA (Reply 77):
Why does it require that they identify themselves? If the aim is purely to terrify people (rather than a specific behavioral or political outcome), anonymity is even better than an identified source.

I don't know, I think most people are morbidly curious, but don't think that it's a terrorist organization (with what we know.) In such a case, personal fear would be low. If there was some indication that there was a group behind it, then that would be indicative of future threats.
“In the age of information, ignorance is a choice.”
-Donny Miller
 
hivue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:48 pm

Quoting nycdave (Reply 89):
Since all they could detect was the angle

All they could detect was distance.

Quoting nycdave (Reply 89):
I'm assuming the "corridors" marked out

They are not corridors. They are sets of possible points where the plane could have been located, only one point of which would be the real place.

Quoting nycdave (Reply 89):
I'm assuming they fall out of fuel range for the a/c,

That, but more importantly they were eliminated based on adjacent satellites in the Inmarsat constellation with overlapping coverage not picking up the 08:11L ping.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
rcair1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:49 pm

Quoting edmountain (Reply 78):
One trivial note: you say this section has not changed, but you did change it  
Quoting hivue (Reply 71):
It was confirmed that no way points has been entered for MH370 beyond IGARI to Beijing."

I snuck in under the 60 minute limit and fixed the error (edmountain) and added a note about the Malasian statement (hivue).

Thanks to all for helping me keep these sanity checks sane.

In particular - thanks to expert members who have been sending me detail and correction via IM.

These sanity checks are the result of collaboration - including speedbird128, mandala499, Pihero, hivue and others.
rcair1
 
IADCA
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:52 pm

Quoting N328KF (Reply 90):
I don't know, I think most people are morbidly curious, but don't think that it's a terrorist organization (with what we know.) In such a case, personal fear would be low. If there was some indication that there was a group behind it, then that would be indicative of future threats.

I actually agree with you (I don't think it was a group either), but I was just responding to someone questioning why they wouldn't ID themselves - which comes in addition to the obvious point that identification would probably be followed rather quickly by drones, SEALs, and a whole host of other things terrorists tend to want to avoid.
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:56 pm

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 80):
Great job rcair1 on your sanity check. If it was read by all of the reporters, there would be a lot less confusion. Are these particular ELTs the ones located on the slide/raft in the door? If one was activated at 29500 alt traveling 500mph would it be seen? I read that a GPS that a person uses to navagate a car does not work in a plane because it is moving too fast for satellite triangulation. I know my ipad could not locate satellites on a recent trip. Do these ELTs have the same kind of GPS as used in an automobile and are the ELTs designed to be a locating device stationary on the ground?

ELTs work anywhere on the planet and have GPS embedded location data as well as being able to be tracked using doppler tracking which should still function even if your traveling quickly. (The sats in LEO which do the doppler tracking are moving even faster and there are GEO sats that can almost instantly pick up on the 406Mhz signal and data, unless your in orbit the doppler effect should be strong enough to localize even without GPS)

(Or in other words the doppler tracking method only breaks down if your relative velocity is zero, no doppler effect, which for GEO sats is true or if your in LEO orbit with the LEO sats would also be true)

(It basically measures the precise frequency of the 406Mhz signal to check for frequency drift due to the high velocity of the sat relative to you and as long as your moving slower than the sat by a good order of magnitude it can figure out where you are using a constellation of sats working the same calculation)

Many phones and iPad like things require internet for something call A-GPS or assisted GPS where the ephemeris and almanac is bootstrapped by mobile network assistance as well as sometimes also providing a precise timestamp and approximate location based on your cell tower location) this usually enables a device to rapidly lock onto GPS. In the air you have none of that and it can take minutes to get a lock if at all. (In my phone you can run GPS in airplane mode and since it is Rx only it doesn't really have any chance of causing problems, I like to keep a track on the flight independent of the IFE map)

To have map navigation work while off network you need an offline map app like backcountry navigator pro or any other map application that lets you download the map titles directly. Some phones and tablets also have problems keeping GPS working without network assistance and can lose the lock for good until you restart the phone due to bugs it seems.

Depending on your device a good GPS receiver with a good internal antenna seems to work even to the second of third seat from the window although pressing the device against the window is the best usually. It also work better if you do not let it get too far (in location and time) from your last lock as it may require a cold fix which can take a long time vs. a warm one which is far faster.
 
David L
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:56 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 86):
n the press conference they apparently referred to the "flight plan," not the FMS.

There's also a Flight Plan in the FMS, which contains the intended route. I doubt there would be any strange points in the flight plan filed by the airline.

Quoting hivue (Reply 86):
he Malaysians couldn't be any more confusing if they tried (which may be what they're doing).

There was a rumour that new waypoints had been programmed into the FMS before they turned off course and contact was lost . In that context the comment doesn't seem confusing to me.
 
flyenthu
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 5:00 pm

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 87):
Dang!

 

Thank you for the latest Sanity Check! I think the SAR west of Perth in southern Indian Ocean is much more realistic. Hope success and some closure for the loved ones whatever the outcome is.
 
tomlee
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Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2010 9:01 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 5:02 pm

Quoting IADCA (Reply 88):
If investigators wrongly attributed it to something other than intentional action (something that they don't seem to be doing), then you could do it again, and if you really wanted to scare people, maybe you would. Perhaps the changes to the tracking problem would have been made by then, maybe not, but either way all that would allow you to do is find the damn plane after they crash it. I think most people who are terrified by terrorists are more afraid of death than they are of not being found afterwards.

Not really if the tracking problem is fixed well it will give good indication of problems regardless of the cause before the plane hits the ground/water or even gets lost. Just one firmware update and ELTs could be transmitting a lot earlier in an emergency providing an independent and robust tracking solution that is hard to confuse and hard to disable/break due to its independent power and transmitter with GPS level of precision and alternate means of tracking.

Most people know since 9/11 if terrorists attack you should attack them right away especially in a plane situation. People are more worried about being lost and never being found. (I would be more worried about not ever being found regardless of cause)
 
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N328KF
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 5:02 pm

Quoting tomlee (Reply 94):
ELTs work anywhere on the planet and have GPS embedded location data as well as being able to be tracked using doppler tracking which should still function even if your traveling quickly.

What are the main reasons the ELT might not have functioned in this case?
“In the age of information, ignorance is a choice.”
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hivue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37

Wed Mar 19, 2014 5:03 pm

Quoting David L (Reply 95):
There's also a Flight Plan in the FMS, which contains the intended route. I doubt there would be any strange points in the flight plan filed by the airline.

There's a flight plan filed prior to the flight. It's possible that's what was being referred to in the press conference, not what might have been entered new in the FMS during the flight. But we don't know. As I suggested, it's almost as if the Malaysian authorities are going out of their way to obfuscate matters.
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