Manston Could Close

acelanzarote · Mon Apr 14, 2014 9:42 am

If you think Manston is out of the way, try driving to Lydd! The Brother in law lives at Hythe up the road and it takes ages just to get from there to Lydd airport so anyone living near Manston might as well get on the A2/M2 and head to LGW/STN etc.
It used to take an hour to get to Manston from Hythe when I visited for a bit of spotting, you can get to LGW in not much longer subject to the M25 etc so it says it all really.

shame.

rutankrd · Mon Apr 14, 2014 10:02 am

I believe they have two flights in June as part of a "fogie" trip to Lake Garda and whilst I haven't seen the schedules one would expect something like a Austrian Arrows Dash or Skywork Dornier outside chance Air Dolomiti flight either to Brescia or Verona.

european742 · Mon Apr 14, 2014 10:26 am

According to Newmarket's website the flights that have moved to Lydd are:

Sun 01 June 15:05 S5 873 to Verona, returning Sun 08 June 19:30 S5 874
Sun 22 June 07:10 S5 873 to Verona, returning Sun 29 June 11:55 S5 874

So operated by Small Planet

bennett123 · Mon Apr 14, 2014 5:35 pm

Both Europe Airpost and Small Planet fly B737, which Lydd will be able to handle.

factsonly · Wed Apr 16, 2014 6:14 pm

To complete the Manston Airport saga, we can now report that KLM carried around 48.000 passengers to/from MSE in the 12 months of operations from Amsterdam.

The route opened in April 2013 and closed on 9 April 2014 and was operated 2x/daily with Fokker 70 aircraft with 80 seats.

This results in 48.000 / (120 sectors/month x 12) = 33 passengers per flight or a 42% loadfactor.

bennett123 · Wed Apr 16, 2014 6:55 pm

This only reinforces my view in reply 39.

The route was run for a complete year which would reduce the impact of seasonal factors.

I know that LF is not everything, but unless yields were very good, it is hard to see that much money was made.

Clearly there would be some feed on services from AMS, but much of that is likely to continue, just via LHR.

With both KLM and Newmarket having made alternative plans, I doubt that either will want to do an about turn.

Whether there is enough freight to keep the airport open is more difficult to judge. However with AF/KLM and BA
moving out of dedicated Freighters, and World Airways folding, the omens are not good.

EnviableOne · Thu Apr 17, 2014 9:11 am

The LF is slightly higher as in the Business class section they do not sell the centre seat in the three or the aisle seat of the two the section is 6 rows so capacity is only 73 bring the LF to 45.2%

factsonly · Thu Apr 17, 2014 3:12 pm

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 45):

However, this statement from KLM Cityhopper managing director, Boet Kreiken, in Air Transport World that it was impossible to do "business in a shaky environment".

"Now it is game over; we will redeploy the aircraft. We are gone."

......and it seems KLM have done just that.

Their new route - opening 26 May 2014 - AMS-BIO-AMS is going from 1x/daily to 2x/daily on August 4, 2014.

PW100 · Thu Apr 17, 2014 3:16 pm

Quoting EnviableOne (Reply 56):
so capacity is only 73 bring the LF to 45.2%

Which is not too bad for a twice-daily new start-up route. Off course we do not know how trends and especially yields looked like, but routes were started and continued with worse load factors over the first year.

PW100

peterinlisbon · Thu Apr 17, 2014 4:45 pm

If the government wants to help then they could reduce the price of a train ticket out there. It costs 38 pounds, probably more than the cost of a flight, just for a one-way ticket.

bennett123 · Thu Apr 17, 2014 4:48 pm

Which journey costs 38 pounds?.

vv701 · Thu Apr 17, 2014 7:08 pm

Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 59):
If the government wants to help then they could reduce the price of a train ticket out there.

The government . . . Sorry, I mean the British tax payer . . . already subsidies all rail travel in the UK. The average subsidy in 2012-13 was 6.8p per passenger mile. Of course rail travel is not taxed.

Once you arrive at Ramsgate on your subsidised railway ticket (single fare £38.50 from St Pancras Station, London) and have transferred from Ramsgate Station to MSE you can board your flight which is not subsidised.

The St Pancras - Ramsgate distance is 80 miles. So the existing subsidy on the single journey is of the order of £5.40. The airline ticket price for an MSE-AMS flight will include Air Passenger Duty of £13 if travelling Y Class or £26 if travelling C Class.

So, yes. Let's increase the rail subsidy. To pay for this increase we could increase Air Passenger Duty!

bennett123 · Fri Apr 18, 2014 6:49 pm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-27061179

Latest update from BBC.

Looks as if Mrs Gloag wants to close Manston ASAP, rather than let this saga drag on.

bennett123 · Sun Apr 27, 2014 5:53 pm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-27172243

Hopefully this will lead to something.

bennett123 · Mon May 05, 2014 12:33 pm

Www.bbc.co.uk now report that a formal offer was received yesterday.

bennett123 · Mon May 05, 2014 5:34 pm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-27282235

Things are moving rapidly.

readytotaxi · Mon May 05, 2014 5:44 pm

Then it will become a housing area,land fill, shopping mall, farm land?

petera380 · Mon May 05, 2014 6:43 pm

What will happen to the Spitfire Cafe, nice place to go in the summer!

bennett123 · Mon May 05, 2014 7:22 pm

Is the spitfire cafe the one in the terminal.

factsonly · Tue May 06, 2014 1:07 pm

Manston Airport in Kent confirms it is to close next week - 2nd week of May 2014 - after it fails to find a viable alternative which would allow it to stay open.

According to: Ruth Lumley - Press Association reporter for the South East.

readytotaxi · Tue May 06, 2014 5:09 pm

Yep, confirmed.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-27294532

OA260 · Tue May 06, 2014 5:12 pm

Very sad for all involved especially the staff.

bennett123 · Tue May 06, 2014 7:09 pm

"local Conservative MPs Sir Roger Gale and Laura Sandys, said there was "ongoing and serious interest" in the acquisition of Manston as a working airport and they hoped the current owners could be persuaded to reconsider and negotiate.

"We are convinced that, given more time, real progress could have been made and it is thus hugely disappointing that the decision has been taken to close it.

"The both of us have always said that had we known about the owners' intentions months ago, a plan could have been put in place well in advance and this continuing uncertainty could have been avoided.

"We will absolutely not accept second best and will fight together in the coming weeks to make sure the interests of the people of Thanet are protected," they said.

I find this statement, (taken from the BBC website) a bit curious.

Given the history of Manston from the Planestation saga onwards, this outcome is no great surprise.

Since Flybe moved out in 2011, operations have been 2 KLM F70 runs per day, a few Newmarket Holidays flights and some Cargo.

My understanding is that there were hopes that FR would run services, although how much MOL would be prepared to pay is unclear, normally he expects the airport to pay him.

To date, there have been no investors identified.

IMO, KLM pulling out was the final straw.

factsonly · Wed May 07, 2014 6:38 am

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 72):
IMO, KLM pulling out was the final straw.

That is turning the whole story up sight down.

If you read this thread once again from the very beginning, you will note that the first rumours were published on March 19, 2014. Next the airport owners announced the closure officially....all be it in shrouded words, calling for a consultation period with staff. After which the airport would close in 4 weeks time.

For outsiders the airport's announcement may have shrouded in PR parlance of a 'consultation period', but everyone involved understood CLOSURE.

KLM's initial response was to await official news.

It took awhile before KLM announced the closure of the route starting April 9, 2014.

KLM had only one course of action and that was to close reservations and withdraw service from April 9. You can not say that KLM pulling out was the final straw, as the final straw had already happened when the public was informed the airport was to close.

bennett123 · Wed May 07, 2014 7:09 am

What I mean is that without klm, that the outcome of the "consultation" became inevitable. I am not blaming klm.

Klm was the only scheduled operator.

Once they left, it was likely to be permanent.

This meant that any new owner would basicly be starting from scratch.

It would be hard to see how new operators could be found almost overnight, given that when be left in 2011, the owners only found a few flights.

Ultimately there were not enough people wanting to fly from there.

nighthawk · Wed May 07, 2014 8:14 am

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 74):
What I mean is that without klm, that the outcome of the "consultation" became inevitable. I am not blaming klm.

The result of the consultation was inevitable the day it was announced - it was nothing more than a formality. The decision to close the airport had already been taken, probably the day the airport was purchased.

You don't buy an airport and expect it to turn a profit within 5 months. Offers have been made for the airport, and still been rejected. It's clear the intention has always been to close the airport - the current owners bought it for the land, not for the runway.

EnviableOne · Wed May 07, 2014 11:31 am

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 74):
What I mean is that without klm, that the outcome of the "consultation" became inevitable. I am not blaming klm.

the consultation is not about the airport closure, but is part of UK employment law regarding redundancy and is a requirement if you intend to put this many people out of a job.

The current airport company was going to close, its just what sort of settlement the employees and creditors were going to get.

bennett123 · Thu May 08, 2014 10:21 pm

We keep hearing about this "viable" alternative, but never any details.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-27307375

I doubt if the KLM landing fees even covered the wage bill.

OzarkD9S · Thu May 08, 2014 11:45 pm

What a shame, the right runway in the wrong place. LHR, LGW, STN and LTN would love to have that pavement transplanted to their respective locales, politics and NIMBYS asidel.

BSRadar · Fri May 09, 2014 12:53 am

Manstonians - who can help me with INVICTA registrations from Manston in 1967 please? Is there an Invicta Airways flight log in existence perhaps?

1st Reg. Request: Manston > Prepignan - What was the registration of my 1st-ever flight ? My flight was on the 10th June 1967 - a C54/DC4 Invicta Airways from Manston to Perpignan - departed 22.00+.
(It was exactly one week earlier that the Air Ferry C54 MSE > PGF C54 had crashed into Mt. Canigou, and then followed the next day by the Stockport BMA C54).

(BTW: Waiting-to-board on the 10th June - one week later - there was no discernible effect from these crashes on my fellow waiting-to-boardees - it simply wasn't mentioned. No MEDIA. In any case, Air Ferry were also boarding a flight to the same place - so why bother?)

Regarding the actual flight: I remember that the Invicta flights were on a 7 or 10 day/night holiday serving pattern. We booked for 10 nights.

2nd Reg. Request: Pepignan > Manston. 23/24th June. Different C54 from the O/B leg. Delay 4 hours.

Thanks, maybe in anticipation more than hope? I've waited a long time to ask these questions. Cheers!

nighthawk · Fri May 09, 2014 7:56 am

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 77):
We keep hearing about this "viable" alternative, but never any details.

What details do we need?

The current owner bought the place for £1, on the condition they took on the debt. If they can't afford to do so, then sell it on for another £1 and let someone else take on the burden. Whether they have a viable business plan or not, is of no concern to the current owner.

bennett123 · Sun May 11, 2014 3:05 pm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-27357604

https://www.linkedin.com/company/riveroak-investment-corp.-llc

http://www.riveroakic.com/

This is what I have gleaned so far about the potential new purchasers.

I read the statement "RiverOak Investment Corp., LLC invests in commercial and residential real estate through discretionary co-mingled, closed-end funds and private separate accounts.

With a focus on creating value through repositioning and renovating, RiverOak pinpoints opportunities with demonstrated potential for superior risk-adjusted returns that provide investors with steady income and value creation".

However, I am not a lot wiser.

r2rho · Mon May 12, 2014 2:13 pm

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 37):
Redundant airfields are categorised as "brownfield land" just the same as a former factory site or similar, even if the vast majority of the land area is grass and has never been concreted over. There is a presumption in planning law that development is encouraged on brownfield land and all such sites should be developed prior to any agricultural land being taken. Hence its attractiveness to speculators.

Seems that this is the perfect legal loophole for investors like the ones now shutting down Manston. Putting airfields at the same level as an industrial facility is a major flaw however, as they fulfill very different roles. Industrial facilities can be relocated relatively easily. But once an airport is closed, it is so forever, as it is not easily relocated/rebuilt. And even more so in a country like the UK, where building any new runway infrastructure is completely impossible.

I don't know if Manston had a viable future or not, I'm just saying that such irreversible decisions on infrastructure should not be allowed to be taken so easily. It takes years/decades of planning and debate to get approval for infrastructure, yet it takes only weeks, no planning and no debate, to shut it down... (same thing applies to the commercially much more viable THF by the way)

nighthawk · Mon May 12, 2014 3:12 pm

Quoting r2rho (Reply 82):
I don't know if Manston had a viable future or not, I'm just saying that such irreversible decisions on infrastructure should not be allowed to be taken so easily. It takes years/decades of planning and debate to get approval for infrastructure, yet it takes only weeks, no planning and no debate, to shut it down... (same thing applies to the commercially much more viable THF by the way)

I completely agree. The decision to close an airport shouldn't be something that can be taken solely by the owner. It should be open to a consultation, and only upon agreement from all stakeholders (government, local council etc.) should it be allowed to close.

boysteve · Mon May 12, 2014 8:52 pm

So Plymouth has closed, and now Manston. Although they maybe both 'land grabs' by developers, this would not have happened if they were viable airports to start with. So will any other UK airports suffer the same fate? I am thinking Durham Tees Valley. Although Blackpool seems to be holding its head above water atm.

bennett123 · Wed May 14, 2014 7:10 pm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-27411419

This the latest on the BBC.

Not sure why "an introducer" was involved. Surely, RiverOak could contact Manston Airport directly. What value would a middleman give.

Also if a middleman had some role, why would you pick someone with history.

factsonly · Thu May 15, 2014 6:30 am

The airport is due to close on Thursday 15 May 2014 at 17:00 BST.

bennett123 · Thu May 15, 2014 7:37 pm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-27422294

Just finished watching the above, including the linked video .

I noticed 2 aircraft at 1:07, which seemed to include DC8-62F ZS-OSI and a second aircraft with a blue/red tail.

At 1:16 was a white B757, (probably Cargo) and at 1:36 was Southern Winds B747 LV-AZF.

I listened to the Union guy, but could not see how extending the airfield licence would suddenly result in viable bids to run Manston as an Airport.

Surely the fact that the previous owner sold it for £1 says something.

As for G-CCZV ditching in the sea, if Manston was not there, and no other airport was available, then there are always fields.
Furthermore, the pilot would have taken the location of all airports, including Manston in his flight plan.

bennett123 · Mon May 19, 2014 7:34 pm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-27466993

There are a few points that are not clear;

1. Is this simply a stunt to put pressure on the owners, as presumably once a CPO starts they can string things out indefinitely.

2. Presumably the assumption is that the valuer will arrive at a figure thatThanet DC/ RiverOak is willing to pay.

3. Is RiverOak, (who presumably will buy the Airport from Thanet DC) promising to produce a viable future for Manston as an Airport.

4. If RiverOak buys it and then decides to build houses/a retail park, then will there be another CPO.

For me, the real issue, is does Manston have a commercial future, or will is ultimately be financed by the tax payer/rate payer.

bennett123 · Tue May 27, 2014 2:34 pm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-27511530

Seems that people are still fighting this.

http://www.whynotmanston.org/

http://www.whynotmanston.org/index.php?page=latest-news-cuttings

I have been reading through some of this stuff.

However, I do not see anything that have changed since the previous owners sold to Mrs Gloag for £1.

Contrary to the claims made about re cycling, surely this is already done at Kemble.

The CPO idea is all very good, but several people have owned Manston already, not sure how TDC/Riveroak will do any better.

gordonsmall · Tue May 27, 2014 3:33 pm

It's about time the locals just let Manston die a dignified death. The place has been a bottomless pit of money for years, same with PIK which in its best year barely broke even. I think its pretty clear that Ann Gloag never had any intention of running the site as an airport in the long term, that land is too valuable to be wasted on a lost cause. I have my own suspicions of what is to become of Manston based on gossip from another industry I have friends in, but I'll keep that under my hat in case I've got it totally wrong.

The last thing the south east needs is another airport anyway, the airspace is already crowded with approaches to under utilised runways at airports that barely break even. What the country as a whole needs is more capacity at Heathrow and possibly Gatwick, which manston cannot ever provide.

bennett123 · Tue May 27, 2014 4:40 pm

The rumours so far have basicly involved housing.

I assume you mean something else.

bilgerat · Wed May 28, 2014 1:32 am

Quoting gordonsmall (Reply 90):
It's about time the locals just let Manston die a dignified death.

Easy for you to say as I presume you don't live in north east Kent.

In recent years the area has lost the seaport at Ramsgate, Pfizer closed their large research facility and now they've lost Manston. It's pretty bloody grim for the people living there. Manston was their last best hope for future jobs in the area, and now the rug has been pulled out from underneath them by some pretty cynical property speculation by Ann Gloag. When she purchased Manston she led everyone up the garden path and let them believe she was going to keep operating the place as an airport.

There's also some interesting stuff been going on with the "debt" that Manston has... speculation it's actually debt from the Prestwick operation that has been inherited by Manston.

The area doesn't have the jobs to support a large housing development, it's as simple as that. The local MPs are most upset at how Gloag has played this, Thanet District Council are looking into the possibility of a CPO, there's a protest rally planned for this Friday that will be attended by the national media.

If you know the area and how Manston is quite literally the only thing in the area that gave the locals just the slightest ray of hope for the future then you might understand why they are so angry and upset over this.

bennett123 · Wed May 28, 2014 6:31 am

I went to Ramsgate and Manston last year, (for the Airshow) and again in March 2014.

IMO, for it to be a viable Airport going forward would have needed the following;

1. A much bigger, and better equipped Terminal.

2. Much more parking.

3. Substancially upgraded road access. The present access road, (the A253?) is busy enough without an airport.

That is just for starters.

So far, no one has been prepared to invest the millions required.

gordonsmall · Wed May 28, 2014 9:35 am

Quoting bilgerat (Reply 92):
Easy for you to say as I presume you don't live in north east Kent.

I live in Maidstone, and previously lived 25 mins from PIK for 20 years, so I have a bit of local knowledge of both situations.

Quoting bilgerat (Reply 92):
It's pretty bloody grim for the people living there. Manston was their last best hope for future jobs in the area

If a loss-making airport, which was so worthless that it was sold for a nominal £1 is the only hope the locals have for jobs then to be honest they were only ever going to prolong the agony by finding a new buyer. Manston has no hope as an airport, the costs of operation are always going to outstrip whatever revenue it can produce. PIK is in almost the same boat, its only helped to an extent by being Scotlands only viable freight airport and having a resonable amount of freight traffic passing through, but Manston is too far out of the way of most of the UK to make it viable for scheduled freight ops.

Quoting bilgerat (Reply 92):
When she purchased Manston she led everyone up the garden path and let them believe she was going to keep operating the place as an airport.

It wasn't the most noble of dealings, but business is about making profit and sometimes that means doing things that taste a little sour. People were duped because they allowed themselves to be, if it sounds too good to be true ......

Quoting bilgerat (Reply 92):
The area doesn't have the jobs to support a large housing development, it's as simple as that.

If housing is the intended use, then you can be rest assured the homes won't be for local people. The houses will be for people like me, commuters travelling to London, not for locals earning minumum wage down t'mill.

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 93):
IMO, for it to be a viable Airport going forward would have needed the following;

1. A much bigger, and better equipped Terminal.

2. Much more parking.

3. Substancially upgraded road access. The present access road, (the A253?) is busy enough without an airport.

You forgot the most important one - a captive market of people willing to utilise the services, which sadly it doesn't have. Anyone west of Canterbury (myself included) finds it much easier to travel to LGW where there are more choice of destinations and more regular services, in fact I would go as far as to choose LHR over MSE given the choice despite the M25 traffic roulette. Three flights a week to the back end of beyond simply doesn't cut it, which is why (like a lot of regional airports) Manston was stuck with a couple of flights a day to AMS to feed KLM's network and an odd charter service. That does not a business make sadly.

vv701 · Wed May 28, 2014 1:46 pm

Quoting bilgerat (Reply 92):
Manston was their last best hope for future jobs in the area, and now the rug has been pulled out from underneath them by some pretty cynical property speculation by Ann Gloag.

Sounds like a chicken-and-egg situation to me. But it does raise the question as to how an airport can be viable when that airport is the last hope for future jobs in its catchment area. Who would want to use it? Who would make it viable?

The catchment area of MSE is limited by the proximity of LGW. It primarily consists of the Thanet (population c. 134,000), Canterbury (c. 156,000) and Dover (c. 112,000) districts. I cannot believe that an airport with a prime catchment of only around 400,000 residents could ever be viable. If it was an extrapolation would suggest a need for 150 commercial runways in the UK as a whole! London, currently with just 6, would extrapolate to 20 runways

It seems to me that the best use of the land would be to build an industrial / business park on it. That should provide the best possible boost to the local economy.

acelanzarote · Wed May 28, 2014 1:55 pm

Going on these numbers for the aera generally, how is Lydd going to do any better? Understand they hope to
build a new terminal next year? For what? Takes ages to get to when we stay in Hythe
and that´s only up the road! I would suggest its harder (and slower) to get to than Manston.

Anyway Manston RIP, some nice visits there over the years.

gordonsmall · Wed May 28, 2014 2:12 pm

Quoting acelanzarote (Reply 96):
Going on these numbers for the aera generally, how is Lydd going to do any better? Understand they hope to
build a new terminal next year? For what?

The whole Lydd situation is a joke IMO. Lydd is a tiny airfield with a short, narrow runway and no space to expand. Even if the commercial demand existed, Short of a few turboprop flights I can't see how they can build any serious operation out of there.

bilgerat · Wed May 28, 2014 2:58 pm

Lydd is indeed a joke. It's in an even worse location than Manston, has a nuclear power station on one side, military ranges on the other, and is surrounded by environmentally sensitive areas.

However, if you want to better understand why Lydd has had the green light, look into who owns it..... a mega rich Saudi sheikh who was up to his neck in the Al Yamamah arms deals.

Chaostheory · Wed May 28, 2014 3:03 pm

Quoting gordonsmall (Reply 94):
The houses will be for people like me, commuters travelling to London, not for locals earning minumum wage down t'mill.

Whilst I agree with the jist of your post, there is no need to be scornful. I pray you never find yourself stacking the shelves of your local Tesco for peanuts.

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