Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
bikerthai
Posts: 3645
Joined: Wed Apr 28, 2010 1:45 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:39 pm

Quoting 77west (Reply 74):
A P3 and a P8 are quite different sadly.

I am pretty sure no 737 (P8) could fly for 16 hours, even with AUX tanks.
Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 141):
P8-Is have mid-air refueling capability, it is not clear on P8-As. It appears some earlier builds may not have this capability.

P-8A do have air to air refueling capability. Question is, is there tanker in the area to perform the function and whether the new P-8A have trained in the maneuver?

Besides, when you are in the plane for 10+ hours, how effective will you be in a find a needle in a hay stack? Sleeper seat not withstanding. The P-8 would probably be more comfortable than the P-3 getting to the search site.

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 88):

Strangley depleted Uranium is / was used in planes for trim weights (as it's really heavy)

Maybe at one time . . . now Boeing use Tungsten for trim weights.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 117):

Composite structures can be lighter than aluminum, but they are not lighter than water.

True, the real question is whether the 777 horizontal stabilizer in question have a tail tank. If yes, then like the wing, the tanks will be sealed. Having ran out of fuel, the tanks would be mostly empty and the wing would be able to float as the sealant will keep the water out. If the 777 horizontal stabilizer is not sealed, there may still be a chance that the lighting holes wont allow any sea water from entering the structure.

The elevator and rudders (control surfaces) are honeycomb panels. They are more likely to stay afloat longer. Same thing applies to the wing control surfaces.

24 m seems to be too big for anything inside the fuselage except maybe a floor panel (which are also honeycomb panels)?

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
User avatar
Finn350
Posts: 1601
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:57 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:41 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 147):
Sorry if this has been posted but I've looked high and low and haven't found it. Whose satellite made the images? I assume it was an Australian defense satellite? Is it possible it was a US defense asset and they're passing the info to the Australians as the lead SAR for that geographical area?

The copyright on the images is by DigitalGlobe. They seem to have a link to Tomnod crowdsourcing campaign.

http://www.digitalglobe.com/

Quote:
DigitalGlobe maintains the largest sub-meter constellation of satellites, including QuickBird, WorldView-1, WorldView-2, IKONOS and GeoEye-1. IKONOS can collect panchromatic and multispectral imagery which can be merged to create 0.80 meter color pan-sharpened imagery. QuickBird is a 0.60 meter, 4-band color satellite, and is capable of collecting multispectral and panchromatic imagery. WorldView-1 is a 50 cm TRUE*, panchromatic satellite and is also capable of collecting in-track stereo imagery. GeoEye-1 acquires 50 cm TRUE* panchromatic and 2.0 meter multispectral imagery. WorldView-2 is a 50 cm TRUE*, 8-band color satellite capable of collecting 2.0 meter multispectral, panchromatic, and in-track stereo imagery.

*Resolution better than 50 cm at nadir with 5m CE90 accuracy


[Edited 2014-03-20 07:41:21]
 
rcair1
Posts: 1147
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 8:39 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:42 pm


Sanity Check - 3/20/2014 - 14:00Z
There is (will be) a link to this post in my profile under "homepage"

Formating notes.
New/changed lines will have this background color. All changes are relative to the previous Sanity Check.
Previous Sanity Check here.Pevious Sanity Check thread 37 - you will have to expand it. (by rcair1 Mar 19 2014 in Civil Aviation)
Minor wording/grammar/spelling changes are NOT highlighted.

3/19/2014 3/20/2014 - 14:00Z update since last Sanity Check.
The facts have not changed much. The a/c has not been found.
I've tried to be as factually accurate as I can - but I'm not an expert in each system - so if there factual errors please advise.
The south "corrider" is receiving equal attention to the north.
Australia is investigating satellite debris west of perth. Nothing confirmed as of this time. (see Search Areas for more)
Created a "Dismissed or Confirmed not true section.

First a synopsis (dropped some old 'breaking news' items)
The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing
The last ACARS transmission was 01:07 local.
Reports that ACARS indicated new waypoints were programed into the FMS before LOS have not been clarified in last 24-48 hours.
The last comms were "All right, good night" transmitted to Malaysia at hand-off to Vietnam control. Vietnam was not contacted. It has been reported it was the First Officer's voice.
NOTE: Saying "good night" or "so long" or "see you" is very common for hand-offs.
The transponder stopped transmitting at 1:21 - loss of secondary radar.
There are reports of a climb to 45K, uneven descent and some changes in altitude. Since this is based on primary radar - altitude data is somewhat uncertain. The last has been reported as 29,500ft but that seems in dispute.
The validity of the 45K reports is being questioned.
There are subsequent primary radar returns west over Malacca Strait and then north west. Since it is primarily radar - a reflection - it does NOT identify the a/c, however it has been correlated with SATCOM pings so confidence is high that the returns are from MH370
SATCOM system pings continued for 7+ (last ping at 08:11 local) hrs after LOS (loss of signal)
SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on correlation to signal strength there are two loci that indication aircraft distance from the Satellite.
These are not paths and I have changed my language to reflect that. They represent a distance from the satellite.
Corridor one is north over Andaman Sea, Bay of Bengal as far as Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and is consistent with primary radar.
Corridor two is south over the India Ocean west of Australia. We've had no reports of radar signals in that area.
The last SATCOM ping was at 8:11 am Malaysian time. At that time it would be dark on the north radius and light over the south radius.
SATCOM pings are hourly - so the 8:11 ping could be up to 1 hour before the aircraft stopped 'pinging'.
We have no ELT signal detected.
While authorities (Malaysian) have not confirmed this is a hijacking or purposeful event - it is believed that is highly likely by most, however, motivation is unknown.
There have been no reports that a Rolls Royce EH report was sent upon landing.

Time-line (from CNN)
1.07 am - Last ACARS transmission.
1.19 am - Last verbal communication "All right, good night" from the plane; believed to be the co-pilot
1.21 am - Transponder stopped transmitting (turned off or failed)
1.30 am - Civilian (primary) radar lost contact
1.37 am - Expected ACARS transmission; not received
2.15 am - Last military primary radar contact
8.11 am - Last (hourly) satellite handshake


ACARS
ACARS is an automated aircraft communication system that transmits a/c information, including navigation, operations, maintenance, etc to ATC and maintenance facilities.
ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight.
ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.
This last fact (only EHM) is somewhat questions because of 3/18 reports of new way-points being programmed. This would require ADS-C
ACARS communicates via VHF, HF or SATCOM. The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.
ACARS can be instructed not to use SATCOM, HF or VHF from the Cockpit. This would effectively stop ACARS from sending data. Access to the EE bay is not required.
The last ACARS transmission was at 1:07. The next was expected at 1:37 and was not received. This means ACARS communication was disabled between those times. This could be action by the flight-deck crew or system failure.

ACARS data from MH370
The ACARS system sent 2 engine health reports to Rolls Royce, both prior to the LOS event.
The Rolls Royce page indicates that a 'snapshot' of engine data would be sent at: takeoff, climb, cruise and landing. We know 2 ACARS Engine Health reports were received, consistent with the 1st two.
The last engine health report was received at 1:07am. The next was expected at 1:37 am and was not received. This indicates that the transmission of ACARS data was disabled between 1:07 and 1:37, but not when during that period.
The Engine Health report received prior to LOS had 'interesting' altitude data/fluctuations including 40K drop in a minute. That data is suspect.
There seems to be some indication that ADS-C data with changed way-point information was included in the last ACARS report.
UPDATE: per the transcript of the latest press conference, I believe they Malaysians are saying:
The flight did not deviate prior to LOS
The flight plan was normal - no usual way-points.
This later is not quite the same as denying ACARS data showed way-points had been added.
There has been no clarification of this issue.

ADS-C Tutorial (short).
ADS-C stands for Aircraft Dependent Surveillance - Contract.
The "Dependent" is because it "depends" on the aircraft taking action - as opposed to "independent" like radar..
Contract means there must be a "contract" or "agreement" set up by the controllers an/or crew to send information.
ADS-C is not required to be used.
ADS-C can be programed to report periodically, on demand, on event. It can be initiated by the crew in an emergency.
Various data groups can be sent. The one relevant to this discussion is the Predicted Route Group which includes ETA, altitude, lat/long at next way-point and next+1 way-point.
Prior to 3/18 we had no information that ADS-C was being used, however on 3/18 it was reported that we "know" that new way-points were entered in the FMS prior to LOS.
The only way we know of for this information to be available to authorities is if the ACAR's report at 1:07 included the "Predicted Route Group."
ADS-C is transmitted via ACARS which can use SATCOM, VHF or HF.
ADS-C does not transmit via transponder (thanks for that correction)
A good tutorial on ADS-C is available at http://prezi.com/pcuvxhcklsda/ads-c-overview/

Way-point Entry Data.
On 3/18 authorities reported that new way-points had been entered into the a/c FMS BEFORE the last communication at 1:19.
This information could only be provided by ADS-C in the 1:07 ACARS report.
It was also reported that the aircraft had already turned off course prior to 1:19.
That seems inconsistent with secondary radar data which did not show a course change.
Opinion: I believe "experts" are confusing new way-points being programed and executed.
This is consistent with statements by several "experts" who seem to be really "experts"
It was noted that pilots sometimes program way-points but never execute (fly to them).
After take-off way-points are changed in the cockpit. Experts say non-pilots can't do it, but, in fact, it is not hard and many 'simulator' people do it all the time.
Summary:
Reports are that new way-points (off course) were added to the FMS after takeoff (or perhaps just before).
This information would come from ADS-C in the last ACARS report at 1:07.
This requires flight deck access pointing at either the crew or a breech of cockpit security.
All of this data seems to be based on the same NYT report that is being repeated.
We have not heard if the "new" way-points match those reported earlier in the primary radar track.

Way-point Tracks
A series of way-points reported that match the primary radar tracks in/near Malacca Strait.
These way-points line up with the direction indicated by the primary radar returns and Inmarsat data to the north.
While many believe the aircraft was under control - we cannot conclude if these way-point were used, or just coincidentally along the path.
A 777 can be programed to follow a series of way-point automatically - this is normal operating procedure and a 777 pilot would need no extra practice/training to do it. (Relevant to pilot flight simulator ownership)

SATCOM
SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.
SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.
The SATCOM system on MH370 was connecting to Inmarsat 3 satellites. In the area covered, the only satellite with coverage is IOR.
Since only 1 satellite has coverage, no triangulation is possible. All that can be determined is distance from the satellite. This has been used to define 2 potential loci were the a/c could have been.
North Corridor
.
South Corridor
We do not know if these corridors are defined by the last SATCOM ping, or multiple pings.
We cannot distinguish if the a/c was flying or parked on the ground (powered up) when these pings were sent.
We have not been told how the distance from IOR was estimated - it could be signal strength or time of flight (signal propagation time).Opinion: as an EE I think signal strength is unlikely - it would depend on things such as a/c orientation. Time of flight - which is how GPS works - seems more likely - however others have pointed out this requires precise timing.
NOTE: While these may appear as paths - they are not. They are simply a set of potential locations based upon ping data. The aircraft could have been in a constant standard turn circle somewhere along one of the loci (red lines) and the satellite could not tell. We only know it was somewhere along those lines.

SATCOM Pings
The SATCOM system sends (or responds to) periodic 'pings' to/from the satellites (hourly). These 'pings' are a network communication that says "I am here."
SATCOM pings are not communicating a/c status, they are part of the communications channel. They are akin to registration pings on a cell system.
The last pings were detected at 8:11am Malaysia time. This does not mean the aircraft went down or landed at this time, only that the last ping was 8:11. Source I've seen indicate the pings are hourly - but that is not confirmed.
SATCOM pings provide no aircraft heading, speed or altitude information, however, distance from the Satellite can be estimated, and ONLY distance.
Based on analysis of the SATCOM pings by Inmarsat, two possible corridors have been predicted based upon a radius from the satellite picking up the pings.
SATCOM pings would be sent as long as the system (aircraft) was power up and withing coverage area. So, on the ground, if powered up (thanks to mandala499).
People have asked if SATCOM pings could come from a crashed plane if the right parts survived.
Very unlikely. The system is not self contained, the equipment, power and antennas are separate.
Recent news about the fact that the plane could have landed really appears to be just a restatement of known data.
Specifically - the SATCOM pings could have been sent from an aircraft powered, but landed - or from an aircraft in flight.
Clarification: The key is the system is powered, whether by engines, apu or shore line (on the ground).
Again: These pings to not contain ANY data about the aircraft position, speed, altitude, etc.
The 'location' data inferred from the SATCOM pings is based analysis of those signals which gives an approximate distance from the satellite to the a/c.
Since the satellite is in geosynchronous orbit (~22,000 miles), the difference in distance between a flying aircraft and one on the ground is probably not measurable.

Fire Theory (Was Cargo and Lithium Batteries)
OPINION: I've tended to discount this based on my belief as a FF that the a/c could not continue to fly for 7+ hours. However, recent discussions have caused me to re-evaluate that.
Regarding the fire source:
One hypothesis that has been presented is that a fire broke out incapacitated the crew/passengers or caused hypoxia that did so.
(See http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/16/opinio...er-malaysia-flight-370/)
The hypothesis is:
A fire broke out causing the crew to disable multiple systems (or disabled them itself)
The crew was successful in containing/extinguishing the fire - but then was disable due to smoke and/or hypoxia.
The a/c, not on autopilot, continued to fly till fuel starvation occurred.
Key to this theory is that the aircraft, not on autopilot and not controlled, could remain in stable flight.
For most a/c- this would not be possible. But for the 777 it may - provided the flight control systems did not revert to a degraded state.
Specifically - the 777 will self trim (pitch up/down) to maintain speed. As long as these pitch up/down excursions did not cause stall (too high) or CFIT (crash), the a/c could fly.
The 777 also has bank protections - so banks induced by trim/turbulence would be damped and unlike a non FBW plane that may spiral in - the 777 could conceivable continue flying.
This is by no means proven or accepted, but it seems credible considering the advanced flight controls of an aircraft like the 777 as compared to a non-FBW aircraft.
This does not explain any purposeful heading changes except perhaps the first one which could be a turn to return to safety by the crew.
Other turns that appear to be FMS driven would be just happenstance.
It would be very interesting to hear Boeing's take on this - or to experiment with a 777.
There are reports that the cargo in MH370 did not receive normal X-ray screening (though this has recently been weakly denied)
There are reports of a shipment of lithium batteries on the a/c and that perhaps they caused a fire.
The hold of a passenger a/c like the 777 is protected with Halon and detectors - so a fire in the hold would be detected and suppressed.
fire in the hold is unlikely to impact flight systems or EE bay. Freight a/c are different (thanks Pihero)
Fire suppression systems in the 777 include: Engines, APU, Cargo Holds, Toilets and portable extinguishers in Cabin/Galleys, Flight Deck, Crew Rest. Unprotected - EEbay and Wheel wells.(thanks Pihero)

Hypoxia and Pressurization
There has been lots of speculation about loss of pressurization in the aircraft and what that would do to passengers and crew.
IMPORTANT NOTE: all of this applies to cabin pressure - not the pressure outside.Just climbing to 45K would not exposed the passengers to that altitude - the aircraft would have to be depressurized.
In the case of loss of cabin pressure - O2 mask would deploy automatically.
The pilots cannot disable this above 13,500 feet - they can release the masks.
Passengers masks would last 12-20 minutes. Portable crew (FA) bottles ~30minutes. Cockpit crew longer.
Time of useful consciousness (not to loss of consciousness) will range from 1-3 minutes at 30K to 9-15 seconds at 43K. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_of_useful_consciousness)
above 40,000 ft cabin altitude - positive pressure oxygen is required - passenger masks do not do this and would not be effective.
Because of this the a/c must be certified able to descend and pilots demonstrate an emergency descent to ~10,000 ft in 2 minutes.
The actual regulation is that passengers cannot be exposed to a cabin altitude of more than 25K for more than 2 minutes, or more than 40K for any time. (A380 got an exception to this rule.)

Cabin depressurizing by Pilots (this is not as solid as I would like in terms of facts).
NOTE: Above 40K passenger masks are ineffective - positive pressure O2 is required.
Question: Can the pilots 'depressurize' the plane? Yes.
The FAA regulations state the a/c "must be designed so that occupants will not be exposed to cabin pressure altitudes in excess of 15,000 feet (4,600 m) after any probable failure condition in the pressurization system"
So for normal 'failures' - no, the cabin will remain below 15K.
However, per member mandala499 the pilots could: 1) Open outflow valves, 2) turn off bleed air. The cabin would then depressurize to current altitude.
I have no data on how quickly this would happen - but I think it would take minutes at least.
Let's investigate the sequence required and how that is related to the reported "climb to 45K":
1) Pilots (or whomever is in control) switches to manual pressurization, turns off bleed, opens outflow valves.
2) Cabin altitude climbs above 13,500 and passenger masks deploy - there is no way to prevent that. At that point passengers and cabin crew know.
3) Presuming the pilots do not descent - passengers O2 will last 12-20 minutes. After that, depending on the cabin altitude they will loose effective consciousness (not loose consciousness, but effective consciousness).
4) Cabin crew O2 will run out.
5) During this time, the flight crew O2 will operate (and last longer)
6) At some point - depending on cabin altitude - those not on O2 will die (no other way to say it).

The question becomes - how long would this sequence take?
Below 40K cabin altitude - and once the cabin is depressurized- minimum 12-30 minutes for all passengers and cabin crew to become disabled.
Above 40K cabin altitude - I do not know - w/o positive pressure oxygen people will loose effective consciousness in seconds.
With O2, but not positive pressure - will this be extended?
If you descend below 40K with non positive pressure O2 masks still operating - people may recover depending on duration of hypoxia - or may awake with loss of function (brain damage)
Summary:
It appears flight crew (or knowledgeable hijackers) could depressurize the cabin and disable all.
O2 masks would deploy so passengers and cabin crew would know.
This would not be an instantaneous procedure - the biggest factor is how long would it take to depressurize the a/c.

CRV/FDR Data
The CVR (cockpit voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder) do not transmit data in flight.
They do emit sonic pings if immersed. These will last a minimum of 30 days. We can expect sonar is being used to listen for them.
The pinger operates at 37.5KHz 106.5dp re 1μPa. (thanks k83713)
Maximum depth of beacon detection in Normal Conditions: 1-2km
Maximum depth of beacon detection in Good Conditions: 4-5km
Localising a pinger from the surface in shallow water is relatively easy, as described above. In deep water, the detection equipment should be installed on a self-propelled underwater vehicle, presupposing that the position is already known to within the maximum 2-3km detection range.
More Info:http://www.hydro-international.com/i...Deepwater_Black_Box_Retrieval.html
The CVR reportedly is a 120 minute CVR so it would contain only the last 120 minutes of flight (presuming it did not fail or was turned off prior to that).
I don't have data form the recording time of the FDR, but it is typically much longer.

ELT
The ELT, or emergency locater transmitter is mounted in the rear of the aircraft - difficult to access in flight.
The ELT is battery powered - independent built in power source. It is this source that is suspect in causing the 787 fire at Heathrow.
The ELT will be trigged by G forces in a crash. It will not operate under water.
The ELT can be triggered from the cockpit - it is a hardwired switch not dependent on computer systems.
The ELT transmits on the guard frequency (VHF) and on 406MHz to satellites. If it had been triggered (above water), satellites would have heard it and been able to locate the a/c.
Clarification: there are additional manual ELT's in the cabin that can be activated by crew members, but do not include g-force sensing.

Primary versus Secondary Radar (brief tutorial)
Primary radar is based on the original military usage. It sends out a strong (KW to MW) signal and looks for a reflection from something.
Primary radar provides distance and location. Comparing returns speed can be determined. Strength of return can indicate size.
Stealth a/c and ships are designed to absorb or miss-direct the reflection so primary radar cannot see them.
Primary radar does not depend on the transponder, so turning off a transponder will not make an a/c disappear from primary.
Primary radar is less prevalent than secondary - and more typically military tho ATC's do use it.
Secondary Radar is really not Radar in the defined sense. It is directional communication.
In secondary radar a directional signal is sent out (much less powerful than primary). Any a/c with a transponder that receives it will respond (the transponder responds) with information about the aircraft.
Combined with the direction of the outgoing beam, the time of flight information and returned information, the a/c location and identity (and other info depending on the mode) is returned.
Secondary radar is the primary method used by ATC.
If the transponder fails or is turned off - secondary radar will not see the a/c.
In the case of MH370
The transponder was turned off - so the a/c disappeared from secondary (ATC) radar.
A target was tracked west, then northwest using primary radar. That target was correlated with SATCOM pings help determine it was MH370.

Airworthiness Directive
The airworthiness directive about corrosion near the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship.
The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antenna

Aircraft Type and Fuel State
The aircraft was a Boeing 777-200ER. MTOW 656,000 lbs, 301 3 class passengers (standard Boeing Config - does not reflect MH specific config.)
The aircraft could land in 6000 ft, or much less at high risk. As little as 3000ft has been stated, but it could not take off from there.
The aircraft would need a hard surface to land - this is heavier that has been done on steel matts.
It is reported the aircraft 45 to 60 minutes extra fuel. This would amount to about 7-7.5 hrs of fuel. This is a normal amount for this route.
The aircraft should have been able to fly about 30 minutes after the last SATCOM ping at 8:11.
The figure at this link show max range for the 777-200ER. NOTE: MH370 was not fueled for this range. http://www.boeing.com/assets/pdf/com.../777_range_singapore.pdf

Search Areas
Along the planed route. I believe searching in this area is ending or decreasing based on new data indicating the a/c is not there
West over the Malacca strait
North west of Malacca strait
Along the two loci predicted by the SATCOM pings which continue north to Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and south to the India Ocean.
It is reported now that both corridors are equally important..
The search area are shrinking due to improved intelligence.
The USS Kidd has been pulled off, but other US resources are operating.
The latest debris reports is west of Australia - based on Satellite images.
Reported to be 24 meters (which is quite large for floating debris) and awash.
That is being investigated by Australian, US and Norwegian (civilian) resources. No further infomation.
Link to satellite images
AMSA Maps http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/incidents/mh370-search.asp

Mobile phones
We continue to have lots of discussion on "mobile phones" - can the connect in flight, etc.
We don't have any reports or evidence of that any passenger or crew mobile phone has registered with any network.
Until we have that data or reports - I believe the mobile phone discussions are not getting us anywhere.
UPDATE: This subject continues to be discussed. But, we have had no reports of cell phones registering with towers - we are in a loop here.

Theories and Conspiracy Theories
Currently, it seems most believe there is some positive action here - hijacker or crew based.
Opinion: Mostly, I believe this is because a mechanical failure that selectively terminates communication, incapacitates the crew/passengers, but then allows the a/c to fly on uncontrolled for 7 hours seems unlikely.
There are lots of theories out there - some clearly "conspiracy based" some just factual. Often it is hard to distinguish.
Here are a few.
A fire broke out that incapacitated passengers and crew - but allowed to aircraft to fly on it's own till starvation.
Corollary to this - the fire would have to disable comms, or cause the crew to disable comms in an attempt to fight it.
Corollary to this - the fire drove the pilots out of the cockpit.
Corollary to this - the fire disabled comms, nav and systems, and the crew - still alive - got lost trying to return.
The a/c was hijacked and flown to a remote strip to be used in a future terrorist act.
Corollary to this - The breadth of the countries searching alone makes this problematic, but it is not impossible.
The aircraft "shadowed" either a KLM or SIA aircraft to hide from radar then turned off the track and landed.
Questions raised - lot of discussion about if this was possible.
A mechanical failure depressurized the a/c and disabled the crew/passengers either rapidly or without their knowledge.
Corollary to this - What disabled comms?
One of the pilots hijacked the plane to commit suicide. (See Pilot Conspiracy below).
The plane was hijacked, either with or without crew involvement.
Despite the belief this is incident required human actions - we have no evidence of that. Rather - no other theory seems credible.
Freescale engineers have been hijacked for sensitive US data. Opinion: As an engineer who has worked with Freescale - I find that unsupportable. Companies send groups of employees around all the time. While many companies have policies about the # of executives on a flight - that typically is not enforced on regular employees.
There was something in the Cargo worth stealing - which is why it was not screened. This would require involvement of lots of people on the ground. Why not steal it on the ground.
The plane was full of undeclared gold.Gold is very heavy - what would you declare the cargo as?
The US hijacked the 777 using on board FBW technology to fly it like a drone to Diego Garcia (this one wins the insanity case).
Related: There has been a claim by counter terrorist expert that this could be a "cyber hijack" - a malicious attack of a FBW a/c. I don't know where to go with this - only reporting it because I'm trying to stay ahead of the next craze. Opinion: (speaking as an EE) this is the stuff dreams are made of (bad dreams).

Pilot Related Conspiracy Theories (some of this is my opinion).
The crew and passengers are a focus of investigation. Particularly the crew, because of the difficulty of managing an external cockpit intrusion.
The pilot has received a lot of attention because: 1) He supports opposition politics, 2) He has a mongo flight simulator, 3) There are rumors of family problems (debunked).
To address the data on a few of these:
1) The pilot supports opposition politics and may have been at a trial of the opposition leader (confirmed 'ordinary' member of opposition party). Opinion: What is the motive for suicide in this case?
2) The pilot has a very fancy flight simulator. People claim he used it to for this. Opinion: A 777 pilot does not need to train for the flying done - he knows how to do that stuff already. What he needs it planning for violent action/takeover. A flight simulator is no help.
Note - there has been some discussion that the pilot used this for training of accomplices.
3) There are rumors of family problems reported from China. This has been reported as untrue.

Dismissed or Confirmed not True
Chinese Satellite Debris - nothing found in area.
Oil worker report - nothing found in area.
Greek shipping debris - nothing found/not related.
Raft with "Boarding" found - not related
Original 'debris' reports (March 8/9) not related/nothing found.
Maldives low flying a/c - not related.
Pilot family problems - reported as not true.
Cell phones ringing - artifact of the cellular system.

IN summary what we know is.
The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.
There is evidence from SATCOM and Radar that the a/c traveled west - then most likely north west.
Hourly SATCOM signals show the a/c was operating till at least 8:11am Malaysia time, over 7 hrs total flight time
We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.

Additional thoughts.
A hijacking or positive intervention by human agency seems likely.
The erratic altitude and course may indicate a struggle on board.
While we would like to believe the a/c landed safely somewhere, that seems unlikely to have happened unobserved.


That is all.
Respectfully Submitted - rcair1
rcair1
 
laddb
Posts: 220
Joined: Wed Feb 28, 2001 3:24 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:43 pm

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 149):
which means it's just as likely to be a container that fell off a ship.

Containers are typically 40 ft long, or 12 meters.
 
keegd76
Posts: 87
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2009 9:39 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:53 pm

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 149):

Strangely enough a container ship mentioned in the article sank in the Indian Ocean less than a year ago, the MOL Comfort. She went down off the coast of Yemen in June 2013, but given tidal currents and elapsed time its certainly possible that containers from that ship could have floated across the Indian Ocean towards Australia.

Just a thought  
Nothing comes down faster than a VTOL aircraft upside down.
 
bennett123
Posts: 10583
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:53 pm

http://uk.ask.com/wiki/Intermodal_container?lang=en

Actually, they can be up to 56 feet.

Looks like a freight container to me as well.

Furthermore, they do float.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8717
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:54 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 147):
Sorry if this has been posted but I've looked high and low and haven't found it. Whose satellite made the images? I assume it was an Australian defense satellite? Is it possible it was a US defense asset and they're passing the info to the Australians as the lead SAR for that geographical area?

The unclassified version is from Digital Globe, we will never know what authorities are using. Keep in mind standard imaging satellites are useless if there is cloud, rain or haze. Even on a clear day ocean waves combined with glare from sun light makes identifying objects on ocean surface makes more difficult.

Images used in commercial applications are stitched using good images from various scans. Gives false impression about their capabilities.

[Edited 2014-03-20 08:02:53]
All posts are just opinions.
 
User avatar
garpd
Posts: 2551
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2005 9:29 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:55 pm

Quoting musang (Reply 127):

P.S. I haven't read all 38 previous threads - has this been referenced yet ---

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

posted in "Wired" two days ago, its an explanation for the original left turn.

I still do not believe this was a fire event for these simple reasons:

1. A fire, unless explosive, would give the pilots time to issue a mayday. (Countless precedents set)

2. An explosive fire enough to incapacitate the crew and passengers would lead quite quickly to the destruction of the aircraft. A debris field would have been found by now, somewhere along the programmed flight path.

3. It is highly improbable a fire erupted, incapacitated everyone on board, selectively killed the Transponder and ACARS, re-programmed the FMC to send the plane on a different course and then self extinguished to allow the aircraft to fly on for 7 hours.

Quoting Mir (Reply 141):

Just seen your reply. Excellent post!

[Edited 2014-03-20 07:57:33]
arpdesign.wordpress.com
 
COOEE
Posts: 17
Joined: Sat Feb 20, 2010 12:18 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:01 pm

Yes, na, all your analysis are so valid.
But the time ( search) has has extended beyond any expectations of any survival.
Having to fly such long routes from Sydney to Europe, personally, I just want to run such scenarios
to see how I could cope - or not as the case may be.
I think many would have lost consciousness on that late night red eye flight ( my theory only ) some may have lasted longer, to wonder why they were feeling so crook, or thinking so strangely ( hypoxia ) I think the Crew, especially the Pilot and Co, may have been taken unawares - but made the best decisions - if not in the best state mentally as under a dire onset hypoxic state. I don't believe it was a fire. I speculate that the craft never pressurised, or that the decompression was slower than rapid - or never acknowledged until decisions were made without being conscious of what was happening physically to their states - Hypoixia.
How many Commercial Pilots fly with the oxygen-blood level monitor taped to their finger? Is that where you put it, is it like the surgery pulse clamp thats put on your finger, or is it less intrusive. Is there any cockpit indication or warning of such a scenario - non rapid loss of pressurisation - or an inflight incident leading to such an undetected outcome. ?
 
keegd76
Posts: 87
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2009 9:39 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:11 pm

HMS Echo, a Royal Navy survey ship is being sent to the area where the objects were spotted.

She specialises in hydrographic and oceanographic data gathering to help produce ocean navigation charts.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-26665580
Nothing comes down faster than a VTOL aircraft upside down.
 
DrivesForShow
Posts: 9
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2014 7:38 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:15 pm

Map showing day/night in the world just to give an idea of how long until the search can begin again:

http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/sunearth.html
 
hivue
Posts: 2115
Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:26 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:17 pm

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 156):
The unclassified version is from Digital Globe, we will never know what authorities are using. Keep in mind standard imaging satellites are useless if there is cloud, rain or haze. Even on a clear day ocean waves combined with glare from sun light makes identifying objects on ocean surface makes more difficult.

So perhaps the "objects" were first spotted with some top secret all-seeing defense satellite and then they went through Digital Globe's archives to find some corresponding non-classified type images to show to the public?
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
User avatar
DeltaMD90
Posts: 8928
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:20 pm

Quoting COOEE (Reply 134):
What was the huge altitude gain to 45,000ft? - was that to put out a fire out?

Anyone correct me of I'm wrong, but I know of no procedure which directs a pilot to climb and try and put a fire out at a higher altitude with less oxygen. That sounds asinine IMO

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 140):

P8-Is have mid-air refueling capability, it is not clear on P8-As. It appears some earlier builds may not have this capability.
Quoting bikerthai (Reply 150):

P-8A do have air to air refueling capability.

They have the capability but they aren't able to aerial refuel yet and won't be able to for a couple or few more years
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 15695
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:21 pm

Quoting keegd76 (Reply 159):

HMS Echo, a Royal Navy survey ship is being sent to the area where the objects were spotted.

I heard that somewhere before.
“Don't be a show-off. Never be too proud to turn back. There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.” E. Hamilton Lee, 1949
 
Tod
Posts: 1716
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 6:51 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:21 pm

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 150):
24 m seems to be too big for anything inside the fuselage except maybe a floor panel (which are also honeycomb panels)?

777 floor panels are never close to being that long.
 
User avatar
garpd
Posts: 2551
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2005 9:29 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:23 pm

Quoting keegd76 (Reply 159):
HMS Echo, a Royal Navy survey ship is being sent to the area where the objects were spotted.

She specialises in hydrographic and oceanographic data gathering to help produce ocean navigation charts.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-26665580

Echo? I was told Enterprise was going to be sent.

Oh well, either way, good news. If there is anything down there, Echo should find it.
arpdesign.wordpress.com
 
OldAeroGuy
Posts: 3928
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 6:50 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:25 pm

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 150):
True, the real question is whether the 777 horizontal stabilizer in question have a tail tank.

Horizontal tail fuel tanks are not an option on the 777. No 777 is equipped with them.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
ciaran
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2005 8:49 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:27 pm

As it happened,

What is also interesting is the amount of political maneuvering associated with this tragedy, Relations between Malaysia
and China, the Tea party people are having a field day and always worth a good laugh, and Israel is battening down the
hatches in Armageddon. As of this morning word come via the BBC that resources been vectored to a particular area in
the Indian Ocean, coinciding with the last ping received at 08:11 am Sat Malaysian time, and we where lead to believe that
the US (the all seeing eye) was behind the vectoring, then Tony Abbott made his statement to the
Parliament about the investigation and as the fact that a prime minister was going on air gave this
particular news credence, a lot of people took the story up as "Well this must be it", (as the conservative government
here in Australia is usually shutting the ADF up) particularly in relation to boat refugees. Why was there not a member of
the Maritime agency to state their mission objectives in relation to the latest findings. As what happened they landed this
evening with the news that visibility was very poor in target area and in the science where the mark I eye ball rules, we
are to be patient and have another go tomorrow weather permitting.
 
tockeyhockey
Posts: 882
Joined: Fri Feb 04, 2005 10:57 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:28 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 162):
Anyone correct me of I'm wrong, but I know of no procedure which directs a pilot to climb and try and put a fire out at a higher altitude with less oxygen. That sounds asinine IMO

it might be, but it's been floated here on airliners forums several times. in fact, there was an epic thread a while back where i posed the exact question and it went off into a long discussion about firefighting in a flight situation.

maybe the pilots read the thread!
 
canoecarrier
Posts: 2573
Joined: Sat Feb 14, 2004 1:20 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:36 pm

24m would be a large container. I initially thought it could be an abandoned sailboat that had capsized as well. A few years ago a young woman sailing solo in that area was evacuated by the Australians when her mast broke. But her boat was closer to 13m long.

Until someone on site puts eyes on this debris I'm still not ready to get too optimistic. The worlds oceans are full of floating debris. Some of it quite large.
The beatings will continue until morale improves
 
User avatar
Finn350
Posts: 1601
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:57 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:37 pm

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 156):
The unclassified version is from Digital Globe, we will never know what authorities are using. Keep in mind standard imaging satellites are useless if there is cloud, rain or haze. Even on a clear day ocean waves combined with glare from sun light makes identifying objects on ocean surface makes more difficult.

It might be that there are no other satellite images of these particular potential objects.

I would assume that at least the US satellite imaging agencies are conducting their own search, but they will probably come public only if they find highly conclusive evidence.

Unfortunately, it seems that the 24 meter object is too big to be from a 777, but I fully understand they have to check it anyway.

[Edited 2014-03-20 08:38:43]
 
qf002
Posts: 3689
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2011 11:14 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:42 pm

Quoting garpd (Reply 157):
It is highly improbable a fire erupted, incapacitated everyone on board, selectively killed the Transponder and ACARS, re-programmed the FMC to send the plane on a different course and then self extinguished to allow the aircraft to fly on for 7 hours.

For starters, there is no evidence at this stage to suggest that the transponder was selectively disabled. We know that some equipment was still functioning, but we don't yet know how if/how many other systems were impacted by whatever happened in the 40 minutes after the flight departed from KUL.

I think the fire scenario is plausible. A blaze starts somewhere in an equipment bay or major wiring thoroughfare, destroys a whole pile of systems but then either burns out or is distinguished by the crew. The crew then regain control and attempt contact to seek assistance but find that nothing is working, so start a return to KUL with the hope that ATC will get the message and clear the way for them.

A second major failure then kicks in, as part of a chain reaction caused by the earlier fire (perhaps relating to emergency oxygen systems) which leaves everybody on the aircraft incapacitated. Enough systems continue to work for the aircraft to then continue on the southern path until it runs out of fuel and crashes.

I'm not saying that's necessarily what I think happened, but I think it's easily as likely than many of the theories that have been tossed around here over the last two weeks.
 
User avatar
DeltaMD90
Posts: 8928
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:43 pm

Quoting ciaran (Reply 167):
and Israel is battening down the
hatches in Armageddon.

I don't know why people gave Israel such a hard time or made so much out of it. There was a lot of speculation and I'm sure a somewhat credible rumor went around and Israel acted... doesn't mean that info was 100% accurate or they were jumping the gun, they were probably just being safe

But I agree, seeing some people freak out because Iranians were aboard was kind of humorous. They aren't friendly to the US or Israel but they're not just dicks to everyone else

Quoting tockeyhockey (Reply 168):
it might be, but it's been floated here on airliners forums several times.

Lots of bad ideas were

Quoting tockeyhockey (Reply 168):

maybe the pilots read the thread!

Well I'm new to the 737 (and not Delta, sadly) so I could be wrong about airliners in general, but there is no mention of climbing to put out a fire in our checklists and I've never heard anyone teaching me ever suggest that. If anything, you want to get down and land asap. Now again, someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure climbing to put out the fire is the opposite any good pilot would do
 
nupogodi
Posts: 933
Joined: Mon Mar 10, 2014 10:58 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:48 pm

I should remind you all that there are commercial radar imaging satellites that can see in the dark and through cloud, though I don't know off the top of my head if DigitalGlobe has any.

There is no reason not to believe that those types resources are being used as well.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
keegd76
Posts: 87
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2009 9:39 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:49 pm

Quoting garpd (Reply 165):
Echo? I was told Enterprise was going to be sent.

Oh well, either way, good news. If there is anything down there, Echo should find it.

Accordingly to the RN website Enterprise is just completing trails and training after a 5-month refit which began in September 2013.

Due to go back into service later this year.
Nothing comes down faster than a VTOL aircraft upside down.
 
hivue
Posts: 2115
Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:26 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:50 pm

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 170):
I would assume that at least the US satellite imaging agencies are conducting their own search, but they will probably come public only if they find highly conclusive evidence.

Or not come public at all, just pass the info quietly on to Australia as the lead SAR nation for the pertinent area for search? What I'm wondering is if the info the Australians are going on isn't very much better than what we're seeing in these two satellite images (which looks pretty unimpressive to me).

[Edited 2014-03-20 08:51:14]
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
Pihero
Posts: 4318
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:11 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:51 pm

Reasonability check :

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 152):
Way-point Tracks
• A series of way-points reported that match the primary radar tracks in/near Malacca Strait.
• These way-points line up with the direction indicated by the primary radar returns and Inmarsat data to the north.
• While many believe the aircraft was under control - we cannot conclude if these way-point were used, or just coincidentally along the path.
• A 777 can be programed to follow a series of way-point automatically - this is normal operating procedure and a 777 pilot would need no extra practice/training to do it. (Relevant to pilot flight simulator ownership)

There were quite a few articles on this subject, one of the main bases for the *dastardly mass murdering crew* being in control, and then programming and following an alternative routre composed of... just three waypoints   , namely VAMPI, GIVAL and IGREX.

- First we have to remember that the Thai Air Force stressed on the fact that the flight never was over Thailand, which means that MH370 came from further south and would have been in sight of Kuala Lumpur, Butterworth... etc... then took a Northwesterly route to VAMPI, forcing a succession of 90°+ turns on waypoints that do not belong to the same airway . (That shoots down the idea that the clever murdering crew joined an airway to hide themselves better ).

- Second, an airplane generally doesn't fly over waypoints - except in terminal areas for SIDs and STARs, for obvious reasons of separation and safety.
So : in actual terms, that airplane would have made a very smooth S, missing VAMPI and GIVAL by a minimum of 5 nm as the radius of its turn, assuming a TAS of 480 kt would be in the vicinity of 10 nm, without wind.
That's hardly what I call "using entered waypoints".

- Third : the GIVAL- IGREX track leads to Port Blair on airway P628.

Wouldn't it have been more reasonable to just turn southwest over Indonesia, past Medan and then South, to be lost in the roaring forties of the Indian Ocean ?

What is really frustrating in this accident is that we have absolutely no factual evidence provided :
- Why not publish a photocopy of the ACARS messages to RR ? Do they really include a navigation ( i.e *next positions*) group ? If so, how come it took more than a week for the investigators to realise the presence of that group in the message?

- Why not follow on the radar blips showing the airplane at those waypoints... Can't the military derive a ground speed, therefore a TAS and a Mach number ?

- How did some of the investigators derive the probable last aircraft position?.. Why not publish all the loci based on the Sat pings... considering a constant speed (which one ?), one could build a set of equal vectors intersecting these arcs at the same distance. Why the secrecy ?

No wonder the conspiracists are having a field day !
As for me, I'd certainly stop at accusing a dead pilot of one of the greatest crimes we'd seen in modern times.
That's the minimum respect we need to show, to him, his family, his religion and his country.
Apparently I am in the minority in this regard.
How sad...
Contrail designer
 
jcxroberts
Posts: 97
Joined: Tue Mar 11, 2014 3:41 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:53 pm

The US would never publish satellite data or images from Pine Gap or any other top secret sight, watered down or not. It's not going to happen. Like others have said, they would just cross reference with DigiGlobe.
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 15695
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:53 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 162):
Anyone correct me of I'm wrong, but I know of no procedure which directs a pilot to climb and try and put a fire out at a higher altitude with less oxygen. That sounds asinine IMO

I would assume the climb observed on the radar was an issue with that equipment at the limit of its range, it is not uncommon with primary radar.

In term of increasing altitude, there is procedures for example on the 747 freighter which has Main Deck Cargo Fire ARM & DEPRESS feature to raise the cabin altitude to FL250 while the aircraft climbs/descends to FL250 with an aim to starve a fire.
“Don't be a show-off. Never be too proud to turn back. There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.” E. Hamilton Lee, 1949
 
User avatar
garpd
Posts: 2551
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2005 9:29 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:54 pm

Quoting keegd76 (Reply 174):
Accordingly to the RN website Enterprise is just completing trails and training after a 5-month refit which began in September 2013.

Due to go back into service later this year.

Guess my friend got his wires crossed!

Quoting qf002 (Reply 171):

Too many twists and turns.
Just not likely, IMHO.
arpdesign.wordpress.com
 
washingtonflyer
Posts: 1644
Joined: Sun Sep 08, 2013 9:45 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:57 pm

45' high-cube is the biggest container you will see on a ocean vessel. APL tried to push 53' containers into the ocean cargo market, but failed.

So, a 13.66 meter container is your realistic max.
 
spacecadet
Posts: 3582
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2001 3:36 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:58 pm

Quoting canoecarrier (Reply 169):
24m would be a large container.

It would also be a large piece of a 777 to remain intact and floating this long. Both seem equally likely/unlikely just judging from the pictures. However, I'm quite sure there are a lot more floating containers around the Indian Ocean than there are pieces of 777 debris (since containers fall off ships - and container ships sink - with surprising frequency), so the odds are actually way in favor of it being a container - assuming these are the only pics the Australians have to go on. I agree with those that say they probably have higher resolution images, but the fact is they have not been able to identify this debris as even being from an airplane without seeing it in person, so it seems like the images they have probably aren't *that* much better.

I fear this is going to be another case like when those satellite images came out of China a few days after the plane's disappearance. Hopefully it won't be.

Quoting washingtonflyer (Reply 180):
So, a 13.66 meter container is your realistic max.

I don't really buy that this object is 24 meters long. If it's part of the plane, what part is that? If it's not part of the plane, what part of *anything* could it be?

I think it's either a smaller part of the plane, or a container, the length of which has been overestimated. (Water splash that looks like part of the structure, for example, on a satellite image.)

[Edited 2014-03-20 09:03:37]
I'm tired of being a wanna-be league bowler. I wanna be a league bowler!
 
SimonDanger
Posts: 83
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:51 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:58 pm

Quoting ciaran (Reply 167):
What is also interesting is the amount of political maneuvering associated with this tragedy, Relations between Malaysia
and China, the Tea party people are having a field day and always worth a good laugh, and Israel is battening down the
hatches in Armageddon.


As I said several days ago, the sub-text of the geo-politics of the region I believe are likely to be a significant component of how this event is eventually recorded. Until then there's the Tea Party ... never let a disaster get in the way of a good swipe at the U.S.A.
 
User avatar
cougar15
Posts: 1450
Joined: Thu Sep 05, 2013 6:10 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:59 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 161):
So perhaps the "objects" were first spotted with some top secret all-seeing defense satellite and then they went through Digital Globe's archives to find some corresponding non-classified type images to show to the public

Just guessing, but I don´t expect the Aussie PM is gonna make a monkey of himself! although is wording was VERY cautious, I do feel they have a certain Level of confidence, before going public! Sure hope they are right for all the poor soules involved! This one needs closure in one form or another
some you lose, others you can´t win!
 
qf002
Posts: 3689
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2011 11:14 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:03 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 175):
Or not come public at all, just pass the info quietly on to Australia as the lead SAR nation for the pertinent area for search?

It's likely, given the strength of the relationship, that Australia will have direct access to whatever resources the US can use to monitor this part of the world anyway (for example, Pine Gap is a joint facility).

Quoting garpd (Reply 179):
Too many twists and turns.

No more than your average Mayday/Air Crash Investigations episode. There is one root cause (in this case the fire), which leads to a catastrophic issue. Everything else is then explained by the crew's response.
 
hivue
Posts: 2115
Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:26 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:04 pm

Of course this could all just be a diversion to lull any hijackers holding the plane into complacency. (There, that's my first crazy wild speculation on this thread and the only one you're going to see. )
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
nupogodi
Posts: 933
Joined: Mon Mar 10, 2014 10:58 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:16 pm

Quoting cougar15 (Reply 183):
I don´t expect the Aussie PM is gonna make a monkey of himself!

If you ask Australians, they'll say it certainly wouldn't be the first time.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
rj777
Posts: 1811
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2000 1:47 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:18 pm

But another big unknown is how well a 777 can withstand the impact against the water vs say a 767 or A330. Reason I say that is because this has not happened to a 777 before, whereas we have had a 767 (Egyptair 990) and an A330 (Air France 447) go down into the water.
 
PanAm1971
Posts: 444
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2007 4:28 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:21 pm

The public pics released are probably not the highest res pics the investigators have.

From BBC News, "16:08: Leisha Chi, BBC News, Kuala Lumpur tweets: No #MH370 family members who attended a closed door briefing with government in Cyberjaya came to speak to press and exited through back passages."
 
User avatar
DeltaMD90
Posts: 8928
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:23 pm

Quoting rj777 (Reply 187):
whereas we have had a 767 (Egyptair 990) and an A330 (Air France 447) go down into the water.

It would depend how it impacted the water. The two accidents you mention are pretty different, so is the US A319 that went into the Hudson. Who knows if MH370 tried a ditch, crashed at an almost level attitude, or plummeted into the ocean nose first


Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 188):
No #MH370 family members who attended a closed door briefing with government in Cyberjaya came to speak to press and exited through back passages."

Good, I hate when the media hounds people in grief. I'm sure the family members know something we don't but give them space and be patient, media

[Edited 2014-03-20 11:21:12 by SA7700]
 
lucaspithan
Posts: 34
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 2:55 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:28 pm

Its hard to believe the MH370 would be there (where the government of Australia reported) without being noticed by any military radar. Even between Brazil and Africa (AF447) there only a "small" part of the ocean unmonitored, between the satellite borders by Brazil and Senegal.

If the plane is there he travelled near a lot of countries like Thailand and Indonesia and nobody saw...
 
theaviator380
Posts: 682
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:44 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:28 pm

If pilot suicide is likely to be cause of the crash, how did one pilot could have managed to keep other pilot out of the cockpit for so long?

If pilot on suicide mission would have depressurized cabin (using extra O2 only for himself) then can't imagine it would have so horrific for all those pax, crew and other pilot depriving of oxygen.

Also if this was captain who did it (I am just putting some theory) did he deliberately waited for this opportunity as relatively young and inexperienced F/O would have been much easy to manage compared to experienced F/O? this means he could have made his mind when he got to know he is flying with this particular F/O? As I am assuming they don't know their partners and crew until they meet them 3-4 hr prior to flight? before briefing?
 
DrivesForShow
Posts: 9
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2014 7:38 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:29 pm

Quoting washingtonflyer (Reply 180):
45' high-cube is the biggest container you will see on a ocean vessel. APL tried to push 53' containers into the ocean cargo market, but failed.

So, a 13.66 meter container is your realistic max.

Not to be math guy but a 45' cube would have a 77.942' (23.76 m) longest diagonal (the one running through the open space in the middle). Feel free to check the math but I plugged the formula below into WolframAlpha - it takes pythagorean theorem of the height and the diagonal of a face.

sqrt((45*sqrt(2))^2+45^2)

Just leaves open the possibility that the images are a container if the scales are in fact correct.
 
theaviator380
Posts: 682
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:44 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:31 pm

Quoting lucaspithan (Reply 191):

I guess Malaysian officials have mentioned already that they have got confidential Radar data provided by some country and they want to keep data and name of the country secret being highly confidential. This means Malaysian officials when chalked this south corridor had some idea where plane would have flown.
 
asetiadi
Posts: 233
Joined: Wed May 15, 2013 5:05 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:33 pm

I think FAA and Boeing and Airbus should work together to build a beacon locator on each plane that can be tracked anytime whether the plane is crash or not. This way we can find the plane very fast and efficient. We are living in 21st century, I am sure this type of equipment that can track and show the location of the plane doesn't require a sharp brain to build one.
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1590
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:34 pm

Quoting DrivesForShow (Reply 193):

It's "high cube", not a 45' cube. As in "high cubic feet".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermodal_container#Specifications
 
laddb
Posts: 220
Joined: Wed Feb 28, 2001 3:24 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:34 pm

Quoting DrivesForShow (Reply 193):
Not to be math guy but a 45' cube would have a 77.942' (23.76 m) longest diagonal (the one running through the open space in the middle). Feel free to check the math but I plugged the formula below into WolframAlpha - it takes pythagorean theorem of the height and the diagonal of a face.

sqrt((45*sqrt(2))^2+45^2)

Just leaves open the possibility that the images are a container if the scales are in fact correct.

They are not actually 45 ft cubes - that is just the name given to them. They are approx 8 ft x 8.5 ft. x 45 ft. The vast majority of containers are 20 and 40 ft long.
 
65mustang
Posts: 84
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:28 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:36 pm

Quoting garpd (Reply 157):
It is highly improbable a fire erupted, incapacitated everyone on board,

Only the pilots locked in the cockpit with a reinforced door have to be incapacitated. The state of the people in the cabin would be irrelevant with regards to the fate of the plane.

Would a depressurized aircraft be lighter than a pressurized one and have an increased range? If there was a breach in the fuselage, this would decrease the range wouldn't it?
 
theaviator380
Posts: 682
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:44 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:38 pm

Quoting asetiadi (Reply 195):

Absolutely makes sense, should able to reach aircraft even if it's sitting 15000feet below ocean.

Does Dreamliner have that kind of GPS system?

Cheers.
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1590
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39

Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:38 pm

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 198):
Only the pilots locked in the cockpit with a reinforced door have to be incapacitated. The state of the people in the cabin would be irrelevant with regards to the fate of the plane.

IIRC, there is a plan for incapacitated pilots. Senior F/A's would be able to gain entry, I believe.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos