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777Jet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:07 am

Quoting Lindenwold (Reply 196):
Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 192):
I see no mention of mumbling or voice contact post-contact-loss in that article.

like wise..

Nothing about the mumbling in that article... Wasn't the mumbling first said to have been heard by a Vietnamese Airliner?

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 197):
Why do the Malaysians seem to have such a hard time figuring out what the plane did from their radar? Do their radars suck that badly that they take weeks to figure out simple info such as height? Or is it not that simple? I guess there is a possibility they knew for a while and shared it with the other search teams and not the public but it still seems like they're being very incompetent

I remember in one of the press conferences during the first week when asked by a reporter about the radar system in Malaysia a MAS spokesman said that the FAA has full confidence in the Malaysian radar system as it had been supplied by the USA and China... If so, maybe it's not the radar equipment that sucks but rather the people trying to interpret the data...
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MSY-MSP
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:08 am

There are too many pieces to this puzzle that are just not adding up. I am sure at some point in time we will understand what has happened and maybe even why.

First of all for folks who are asking why are we not sending/using submarines in the area to search for the black boxes. It really comes down to the ability of the submarines to hear the pings and an understanding of ocean layers. When encountering a thermal layer in the ocean (areas of different temperatures of water) sound often has a hard time crossing that boundary. That is why submarines try to stay in certain temperature of waters. This way the become harder to detect by another submarine or listening system that is either above or below them. Often times a towed sonar array can be dropped through a thermal layer to permit listening in the other layer. I am not an expert on the Indian Ocean thermoclines, but my guess is that the Navy feels that given the depths in the search area that they could not provide any real assistance. Once a general area is known or figured out then they may have some value, depending again on the depth.

The German Frigates being sent does tend to lead to the thought that there is even more information indicating it went south. Of course we also have the statements from China, Myanmar, Pakistan, India, Kazakhstan and Kirgizstan as well as the US radar in Afghanistan saying they have no trace of the plane in their data. This information, if correct, excludes the northern track.

What I find interesting is that the more we hear the more it appears as though the plane was under control of someone or something. The thing I cannot reconcile logically, is the flight path to the north west and then turning south to head to the middle of nowhere. It would have been much much easier in terms of looking harmless to fly over Indonesia at FL295 and pretend to be an aircraft with a comm issue heading somewhere else all together. If it is in the south someone wanted that plane to be there, and most systems failures problems on board don't give you a post event track that looks very intentional and odd.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:10 am

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 197):
Do their radars suck that badly that they take weeks to figure out simple info such as height?

Shouldn't be. Military radars for the past 50 years have been easily capable of determining altitude, albeit not always extremely precisely.

I don't know what to make of this. A sudden descent to 12000 would be in line with a decompression scenario, but does not explain anything else that allegedly transpired.

The wait for answers just got longer, friends.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
David L
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:10 am

Quoting Fastphilly (Reply 194):
The problem is the Malaysian Govt. not being forthcoming with news to improve the search. Now we hear of a 12,000 altitude which diminishes the range.

They've been working with the NTSB, AAIB, Boeing, RR and several other bodies including help with analysing the primary radar data so placing the blame squarely on the Malaysians without more information might be a bit unfair.
 
aftgaffe
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:12 am

What do you all think of this:

If MH 370 did dive to 12,000 feet shortly after contact with ATC was lost then at least one of these things is likely to be true (1) MH 370 never made it anywhere close to the search area in the southern corridor because it would have exhausted its fuel well earlier (the difference in fuel burn and air speed at FL350 and FL120 is enormous) or (2) MH 370 was definitely hijacked (by the crew or otherwise) because if it did make it to the southern corridor search area then it had to climb back from FL120, which would not be possible nor make any sense in the fire / hypoxia / incapacitated pilots scenario.

Both of these things can be true but at least one of them is substantially likely to be true.

What say ya'll?
 
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N328KF
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:15 am

Quoting David L (Reply 203):
They've been working with the NTSB, AAIB, Boeing, RR and several other bodies including help with analysing the primary radar data so placing the blame squarely on the Malaysians without more information might be a bit unfair.

The problem is that there have been several credible news reports (WSJ, NYT, etc.) who published stories indicating that the Malaysians missed, sat on, or ignored crucial evidence while the clock ticked. A week was wasted searching on the wrong side of Malaysia, and a few days after that while they figured out that they should probably be looking near Australia.

If the search had been oriented properly sooner, who knows what might have still been afloat or in the search zone when searchers got there?
“In the age of information, ignorance is a choice.”
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PW100
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:16 am

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 199):
How so? The radar analysis has nothing to do with the satellites and pings

Sure it has; altitude has a strong influence on max calculated range. Remember the ping arcs, are just that, arcs. If the airplane was flying (consistently) lower, or doing multiple dives and climbs again, that will significantly reduce the max range, and thus the expected end location would be on a different position of the last arc.

PW100
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twincessna340a
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:26 am

The UK is sending one of their underwater survey ships from the Persian Gulf.

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-...o-assist-in-malaysia-plane-search/

Good underwater survey equipment http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Echo_class_survey_ship_(2002)

IF debris from the plane is spotted it will be good to have this asset already in the area.
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:28 am

Quoting aftgaffe (Reply 204):
What say ya'll?

The authorities have the radar data indicating the flight level at last radar contact at 2:15 am. Most likely the plane was at a cruise altitude. This is supported by the plane having the last ping at 8:11 am. If the plane was flying at a low altitude, the fuel would have been exhausted much earlier.
 
gulfstream650
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:34 am

Quoting twincessna340a (Reply 207):

This was mentioned before somewhere in the MH370 abyss. Apparently she has just been refitted so hopefully that will help!?

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Daylight in Aus. Let's keep our fingers crossed.
I don't proclaim to be the best pilot in the world but I'm safe
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:37 am

Quoting PW100 (Reply 206):
Sure it has; altitude has a strong influence on max calculated range. Remember the ping arcs, are just that, arcs. If the airplane was flying (consistently) lower, or doing multiple dives and climbs again, that will significantly reduce the max range, and thus the expected end location would be on a different position of the last arc.

Doh, didn't even think about that.

So I guess the NTSB's previous tracks were based off a higher altitude and TAS?
 
markalot
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:42 am

I tune out for a day and now CNN is once again reporting new leads.

Is this true, or just more incompetence from either CNN or Malaysia and a rehashing of information/rumors we heard days ago? CNN source is once again 'someone close to the investigation'.
M a r k
 
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PW100
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:46 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 205):
The problem is that there have been several credible news reports (WSJ, NYT, etc.) who published stories indicating that the Malaysians missed, sat on, or ignored crucial evidence while the clock ticked. A week was wasted searching on the wrong side of Malaysia, and a few days after that while they figured out that they should probably be looking near Australia.

If the search had been oriented properly sooner, who knows what might have still been afloat or in the search zone when searchers got there?

Most, if not all of that data has been worked on and analyzed by TSB, FAA, BEA, etc. Especially since the last 10 days. And that data seems to include Malaysian military/primary raw radar data. If that is now interpreted differently, I don't think that can be blamed solely on the Malaysians. I tend to believe that the data (or lack of data) is indicative of how hard it is to draw hard conclusions. And that everything has to be checked, checked again, corroborated with different sources. The Malaysians have been very conservative in giving out hard data to the public, most likely because it is not available. Spreading soft data can and will bite them in the *ss, eventually.

So if the Malaysians don't give the soft data to the public, they are incompetent, and holding back information, so they must be hiding something. If they are giving it, and it turns out to be softer than initially thought, they again are incompetent. So really, they are in damned if they do, damned if they don't situation. How nice for us to be behind the a keyboard in an armchair, and not having that responsibility of OFFICIALLY proving information to the public on our shoulders.

I also believe that surrounding countries, in particular Thailand, have been very very easy with giving out raw primary radar data, which would be tremendously helpful in corroborating the Malaysian raw primary radar data.
The Thai initially claimed they did not see MH370 on their primary radar. They also claimed (or are still claiming) that it never went through their airspace, although it must have been very close to, or even in their airspace. Then they said, well we did see it, but it wasn't a threat so it didn't require further attention at the time.
Then they probably gave their interpretation of the radar data, without sharing raw data. Perhaps they now came forward and gave the raw data, and after corroboration with other data sources, now the 12000 ft comes up.

I don't feel the blame should be (fully) with the Malaysians; well perhaps maybe for the first two - three days, but we have passed that long time ago. Multi-disciplinary teams with various well established aviation accident investigation experts are on site and doing the investigation. The lack of hard data, and especially the slowliness of other parties contributing their primary (military) radar data is to me the prime suspect of why the Malaysians are not looking good.


PW100
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Pihero
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:49 am

Quoting David L (Reply 203):
They've been working with the NTSB, AAIB, Boeing, RR and several other bodies including help with analysing the primary radar data so placing the blame squarely on the Malaysians without more information might be a bit unfair.

Good point.
Add to it that - as amply proven in this forum - talking sensibly about technical matters onehasn't really got a grasp of is certainly not easy... How many have really understood the reasoning behind the determination of the southern track ?.. and how many have understood the technicalities of satcoms and FBW ?

THat said, I am glad that some degree of calm is now showing and the outlandish theories have but disappeared.
We're still down to two hypotheses :
1/- Someone, probably with an agenda in control nor imposing some control
2/- An unpiloted flight.
There isn't another alternative (hasn't been one since the beginning, if one thinks hard ).

Quoting PanAmPaul (Reply 195):
There appears to be new informationi about MH370 that says it executed a high dive to 12,000 feet before going off radar

MH370 Descent to 12,000 Feet Indicates Possible Fire or Explosion
Quoting nupogodi (Reply 202):
I don't know what to make of this. A sudden descent to 12000 would be in line with a decompression scenario, but does not explain anything else that allegedly transpired.

There is a lot more than what caused it.
Suppose the information is new - i.e unknown to the NTSB /FAA / AMSA...etc..- , it means that the southern track therefore all the serch efforts there is vastly in error :
The ground speed they were working on is apparently consistent with a Mach .80 to .84 ... TAS around 500 kt.
As I'm for the unpiloted theory and assuming the setting was kept ( IAS equivalent to M.84 at FL 350 is 284 kt ), the true airspeed becomes 340 kt for IAS 284 kt at FL 120.)
That's a difference of nearly 160 knots !
Now, assuming that the flight checks the hourly *loci*, the intersecting path is closer to a due East trajectory.
This would completely destroy the US study : the zone would be then around New Guinea !
Do I believe it ?
I'll wait for news of the search first.
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PW100
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:57 am

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 208):
This is supported by the plane having the last ping at 8:11 am. If the plane was flying at a low altitude, the fuel would have been exhausted much earlier

Not necessarily. Endurance would not be affected too much by lower altitude. True air speed and ground speed on the other hand . . .

PW100
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Finn350
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 1:04 am

Quoting PW100 (Reply 214):
Not necessarily. Endurance would not be affected too much by lower altitude. True air speed and ground speed on the other hand . . .

OK. But I still believe that the NTSB has some information which leads them to believe the plane to be in the southern Indian Ocean. It is hard to believe that the plane had left the Malaysian military radat at FL120 and that would not have been taken into account when designating the search areas.
 
aftgaffe
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 1:07 am

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 208):
The authorities have the radar data indicating the flight level at last radar contact at 2:15 am. Most likely the plane was at a cruise altitude. This is supported by the plane having the last ping at 8:11 am. If the plane was flying at a low altitude, the fuel would have been exhausted much earlier.

Exactly. Assuming the info about 12,000 ft is true and assuming the plane was back at cruise level sometime after, how can what happened be explained without nefarious human intervention?
 
solarflyer22
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 1:12 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 200):
said that the FAA has full confidence in the Malaysian radar system as it had been supplied by the USA and China... If so, maybe it's not the radar equipment that sucks but rather the people trying to interpret the data...

That was my understanding as well. The US supplies a lot of their hardware though their Air Force flies Russian Planes and American planes. I am sure the US is applying a lot of computational power to the raw Radar data provided but determining height to within a few hundred feet for a large plane should be no problem at all. The only issue would be the clutter of civilian traffic.
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 1:18 am

Quoting Pihero (Reply 213):
As I'm for the unpiloted theory and assuming the setting was kept ( IAS equivalent to M.84 at FL 350 is 284 kt ), the true airspeed becomes 340 kt for IAS 284 kt at FL 120.)

But would the setting be kept, in an unpiloted scenario? (and I do mean autopilot off)
What would the 777 FBW do in the absence of control inputs?
 
markak
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 1:19 am

At lower altitude, does the fuel consumption rate vs time increase..... or the fuel consumption rate per mile ...or both?

In other words, could the plane have flown at a lower altitude for the duration of time to the last ping and simply covered less distance?

I don't know what to make of the fact that INMARSAT does not publish the arcs for other than the last ping.

Mark
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 1:25 am

Quoting MarkAK (Reply 219):

At lower altitude, does the fuel consumption rate vs time increase..... or the fuel consumption rate per mile ...or both?

Fuel burn increases if speed stays constant.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
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SuseJ772
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 1:33 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 220):
Fuel burn increases if speed stays constant.

But ground speed cannot stay constant no? Isn't it impossible to achieve the same ground speed at 12,000 then at FL35. So wouldn't both decrease?
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David L
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 1:35 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 205):
The problem is that there have been several credible news reports (WSJ, NYT, etc.) who published stories indicating that the Malaysians missed, sat on, or ignored crucial evidence while the clock ticked. A week was wasted searching on the wrong side of Malaysia, and a few days after that while they figured out that they should probably be looking near Australia.

If the search had been oriented properly sooner, who knows what might have still been afloat or in the search zone when searchers got there?

No, sorry, not particularly credible in my view. I'm not saying it's been perfect but, for example, the reports of them sitting on evidence fail to account for the time taken for other parties to analyse and get back to them. They also fail to take into account that by the time they announce the next phase at a press conference it's already underway. The way resources have been distributed between the search areas has also been badly reported, e.g. saying the search area had "moved" when it had been expanded. The search in the Gulf of Thailand didn't end until they were confident the aircraft had turned west. When they fail to confirm rumors that the press has built up between press conferences they're accused of contradiction.

To avoid the mass confusion and "contradictions" the best thing to do is not treat every news report as gospel. That's something I learned from the Armavia and AF447 investigations.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 1:40 am

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 221):
But ground speed cannot stay constant no? Isn't it impossible to achieve the same ground speed at 12,000 then at FL35. So wouldn't both decrease?

Ground speed is irrelevant. TAS is relevant since it is the air going through where the engines are pointing (mostly). I don't have access to 777 manuals, I don't know if Mach .83 or whatever is possible or advisable at 12000.

You can't calculate ground speed just from the SATCOM pings, you can just calculate minimum and maximum ground speed from the differences between them but only assuming a straight track.

So, uh, I don't know.

[Edited 2014-03-23 18:42:58]
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
65mustang
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 1:42 am

Here is the raw FR24 data. If mh370 turned to the right on hdg 40 at 1:21, st what time did the left turn seen by military radar occur?

Following is all the ADS-B data i could gather from 1642 to 1721 UTC :
255 cue points with time, altitude and speed data (and discontinued lat/long, climb rate and squawk data).
.
.
.
SOURCES/METHOD USED :

- "FR24 Gr" = FlightRadar24 graph (MH370 - Malaysia Airlines - Flight history - Flightradar24). The raw figures (time, alt & speed) for the 185 cue points of the FR24 graph are included in the page's source code, all i had to do was grab them and translate them in the right units.
- "FR24 Pn" = FlightRadar24 "pinned" page (same url). The data you get each time you press the FWD button. Adds location and heading to some of the 185 "FR24 Gr" points.
- "GE" = Google Earth. For the first "FR24 Pn" points (just after takeoff, in the 327° straight line), i got the lat and long data from Google Earth. Presumably it can be done with every other "FR24 Pn" cue point, that's why i marked their missing lat/long data with a "*"
- "FR24 Pb" = FlightRadar24 "playback" page (Flightradar24.com - Live flight tracker!). Oddly enough, the points are not the same as in the "pinned" page. And these ones also include the climb rate, the squawk and the data feeder (registered ADS-B receiver which the data came from)
- "FA" = FlightAware data (Registre de suivi des vols ? MAS370 ? 08-03-2014 ? WMKK / KUL - ZBAA / PEK ? FlightAware). No squawk data on this one, and some minor discrepancies when compared to FR24 heading and velocity data.
- "PF" = PlaneFinder. 3 additional cue points, still better than nothing.

Once all this data collected, i ordered them by growing altitude until FL350, and adjusted the remaining cue points, based on their timestamp (feel free to interpolate the points where seconds are replaced by XX).

T[UTC];LAT[°];LONG[°];HDG[°];ALT[ft];SPD[kts];RoC[ft/mn];Squawk;ADS-B feeder;Data Source
.
.
.
17:20:22;;;;35000;471;;;;FR24 Gr
17:20:33;;;;35000;471;;;;FR24 Gr
17:20:49;;;;35000;471;;;;FR24 Gr
17:20:XX;6,9300;103,5900;040;0;471;0;2157;F-WMKC1;FR24 Pb
17:21:XX;6,9700;103,6300;040;0;471;0;2157;F-WMKC1;FR24 Pb
 
Mutt
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 1:42 am

I used to immerse myself in the KC-135 E and R charts for range and endurance. I will say, for those engine on that airframe, the best endurance altitude was usually around 6,000' feet lower than best range altitude - but more relevant to this discussion, the endurance fuel burn went up 10% for a 20,000' lower than optimum endurance cruise altitude. This was primarily due to the engines operating below their "cruise flat" rpm, which is where an engine is designed to operate most of the time and has it's best SFC. The speed changed very little, and most of it to compressability. Indicated airspeed went down only 5 knots or so with the 20,000' lower endurance profile.

It should be noted the "E" model engines had a very pronounced "cruise dip" as I called it, because it wasn't a nice downward sloping curve. The SFC went down fairly linearly, and back up past it's design cruise rpm fairly linearly creating a backwards checkmark looking curve. This caused the E model to loose (gain) around 12% in fuel burn dropping 20,000' from best endurance altitude.

Mutt

[Edited 2014-03-23 19:13:04]
 
LTC8K6
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 2:25 am

Is there any reason a new flight path couldn't have been entered after 1:07?
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 2:59 am

Quoting Pihero (Reply 213):
Now, assuming that the flight checks the hourly *loci*, the intersecting path is closer to a due East trajectory.
This would completely destroy the US study : the zone would be then around New Guinea !

I missed this at first reading, but no part of the last ping locus is anywhere close to New Guinea. You would have to discount the satellite pings entirely.
 
mandala499
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 3:24 am

Quoting abba (Reply 161):
The things that has been told about the FO is to my knowledge - even if they are pretty naughty - of the kind that does not explain a suicidal behavior that would involve the death of a full 777-200 load of pax. The FO seems to be a person who lived the sweet life. He seems not to be one who were on the edge of killing himself and a lot of other people. Doing that takes either a high amount of some kind of fanaticism or anger combined with depression.

I can only say that to the public knowledge, it appears so that he was "enjoying the sweet life". I don't think it is appropriate for me to go beyond that publicly, but all I can say is, don't believe that 100% for the moment.

Quoting osloflyer (Reply 170):
In the video from the crews security screening, why are they walking together? seems odd to me, is the crew lounge outside security?

Walking together? It's usual for that to happen here in Indonesia and Malaysia. And yes, in KUL, the MH crew briefing room is before security... before immigration. They'd meet up at the crew room, do the briefing, then go to the aircraft together.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 213):
1/- Someone, probably with an agenda in control nor imposing some control
2/- An unpiloted flight.
There isn't another alternative (hasn't been one since the beginning, if one thinks hard ).

Let's not forget the subsets of 1 & 2...   

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 223):
Ground speed is irrelevant. TAS is relevant since it is the air going through where the engines are pointing (mostly). I don't have access to 777 manuals, I don't know if Mach .83 or whatever is possible or advisable at 12000.

It would switch over to IAS at around FL270 or so of it is an FMC selected speed.

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 224):
Once all this data collected, i ordered them by growing altitude until FL350, and adjusted the remaining cue points, based on their timestamp (feel free to interpolate the points where seconds are replaced by XX).

I was hoping someone would identify the feeder at F-WMKC1 and that he/she has the raw data logs.  
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 3:34 am

A link to an article about how Malaysia is holding back from releasing the full cargo manifest:

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/...mh370-information-to-hinder-search

I agree with those who say that not releasing the cargo manifest will hold back efforts to find the missing aircraft. If debris were spotted they might be ruled out by not being aircraft parts so that is why it is important (among other reasons) to know what items were on the plane so all possible debris can be considered.

Here is also poll results from the same website (I voted yes as in I believe it will be found in my lifetime).

Do you think MH370 will ever be found?
24497 Yes
21828 No

Also, I'm surprised that a 'relax' time between posts in here has set in before setting in in the media! I thought media coverage would have slackened off first and it is good to see that media coverage has remained constant after the initial cooling-off period after the first few days of coverage...
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 3:35 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 223):
TAS is relevant since it is the air going through where the engines are pointing (mostly). I don't have access to 777 manuals, I don't know if Mach .83 or whatever is possible or advisable at 12000.

Below around FL280 you're limited to about 340 kias -- at 12,000' that's about .63M.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 3:37 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 228):
It would switch over to IAS at around FL270 or so of it is an FMC selected speed.

That's an interesting piece of information... The question was though about fuel burn at 12000, and if it's even possible to maintain typical cruise speed that low. The idea is that regardless, speed or endurance has to decrease, meaning range decreases. But is it possible to go Mach .8+ at 12000? Probably irrelevant in any case, but curiosity.

edit: Aaaand answered. So yeah you'd be going much slower and probably burning a lot of fuel to go that slow. If they really descended to 12k and stayed there, people are looking in the wrong places.

[Edited 2014-03-23 20:39:38]
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 3:55 am

There is nothing I can contribute to these threads since this is totally out of my wheelhouse, but I do appreciate those with knowledge and insight sharing information and even speculation, based on facts.

Interesting stuff....thanks.
What the...?
 
NAV30
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:14 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 231):
If they really descended to 12k and stayed there, people are looking in the wrong places.

I think another question is, why were they at 12,000 feet in the first place?

As far as I recall, 12,000 is the limit for un-pressurised or de-pressurised aircraft?

So the question has to be, why on earth (if they had in fact suffered de-pressurisation) would they continue the flight? Surely the obvious thing would have been to 'land back' in Malaysia?

That appears strongly to support the view that the flight crew were either incapacitated or dead?

Can any of the more experienced pilots on here suggest any other reason why the pilots would have continued to fly the aeroplane directly away from Malaysia - and in a direction that was just about the opposite of the planned course, and would have entailed flying a vast distance over the open ocean before they reached any more land?

Does appear strongly to suggest either incapacitation or hijacking (the latter either by the flight crew or by 'third parties')?
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:34 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 233):
As far as I recall, 12,000 is the limit for un-pressurised or de-pressurised aircraft?

FARs say no more than 30min between 12500 and 14000 without oxygen, and 0min without oxygen above 14000 (cabin altitude). But that's America.

It's a little different in Canada with CARs, 10000-13000 for no more than 30min without oxygen for crew and 10% of pax (but no less than 1).

I have no idea what the agreed regulations are in general internationally.

But yes, if they suddenly found themselves depressurized, around 10-14k is where you'd find them with a competent crew, I think. Maybe someone else can speak to the exact altitude in the checklist.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
175erj
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:42 am

CNN: Crew of Chinese plane searching for MH370 has spotted "suspicious objects" in south Indian Ocean, China's state-run media reports.
 
laxboeingman
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:44 am

I was just about to post that. It comes after they found wood, I think in pallet form, in the ocean earlier today.
The opinions I post are mine and not of any organization I am affiliated with.
 
175erj
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:47 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 236):

Interesting they don't report what it is they found... just 'objects.' Well, what are these objects.
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:49 am

Quoting 175erj (Reply 237):


They probably cannot tell what they are from the image or whatever source they saw it on. They will have to send a crew out to look for it, but by the time they do that, it will have moved and they will lose it. That seems to be the theme from the last few days; I don't mean to be negative.

I am not sure where the wood would have come from, if it is from the 777. I like the idea I heard on the radio in which they reported it could be from a ship.
The opinions I post are mine and not of any organization I am affiliated with.
 
lazybones
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:52 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 234):
and 0min without oxygen above 14000

Not so sure about that?? I've jumped several times from this altitude without oxygen, and you're up there way longer than zero minutes waiting for other skydivers to exit. They don't offer skydivers oxygen until you do about 17,000ft. But then again some of us are a bit unhinged  
Quoting 175erj (Reply 235):
CNN: Crew of Chinese plane searching for MH370 has spotted "suspicious objects" in south Indian Ocean, China's state-run media reports.

I guess that odd looking turret at the front of the Ilyushin Il-76 comes in really handy for eyeballing debris. With a bit of luck this location will be confirmed 100% soon.
 
175erj
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:52 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 238):

Well since it was from a plane, I was hoping it was something they had an actual visual on.
 
laxboeingman
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:53 am

I am sorry if this was asked and answered before, but how did the officials know it dropped to 12,000 feet and how did they just discover it now and not when they looked for it previously? Do you think the source is from the Chinese government, Malaysian government, or another government?

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/23/world/...irlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
The opinions I post are mine and not of any organization I am affiliated with.
 
fooflyboy
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:58 am

Quoting 175erj (Reply 237):
Interesting they don't report what it is they found... just 'objects.' Well, what are these objects.

I can't help but wonder if they're just finding what was already floating in the Indian Ocean to begin with.

But I continue to hope that they find debris from MH370 down there.
 
65mustang
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 5:07 am

Did the 40000 fps fall data come from primary radar data or was it Rolls Royce engine data?

If it is engine data, what kind of sensor determines this? Is it an air pressure sensor?

If it is radar data, how large does the object have to be to show up on radar? Assuming acceleration of 9.8meters per second each second and ignoring air resistance, it would take an object 50 seconds to fall to the ground from FL400. Could the radar have picked up an object falling from mh370?

Everything appeared normal until the turn to the right from 25 degrees to 40 degrees at 1:21 (fr24 data). Something might have happened in that turn. A structure failure could fit the 40000fps data and the depressurization hypothesis. Here is a picture of the plane from august 2012 with wing damage.

 
lazybones
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 5:30 am

Quoting fooflyboy (Reply 242):

Quoting 175erj (Reply 237):
Interesting they don't report what it is they found... just 'objects.' Well, what are these objects.

I can't help but wonder if they're just finding what was already floating in the Indian Ocean to begin with.

But I continue to hope that they find debris from MH370 down there.

I think the opposite, they have had false confirmations of objects floating in the water (via satellite photos) since the start of the search. But in those cases the actually objects were quickly discounted. But this time there is enormous interest in the debris and something like 8 planes and 6 ships are involved so far with the UK sending a sonar equipped vessel as we speak. I believe the other objects are various floating debris like bits of luggage/floating cargo etc. But also that they made have found bodies. It would be acceptable given the circumstances to withhold this information until they can locate/retrieve and confirm.
 
NAV30
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 5:30 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 241):
how did the officials know it dropped to 12,000 feet and how did they just discover it now and not when they looked for it previously?

All I can say is, mate, when I was flying sailplanes and the odd Cessna the best part of 50 years ago, 'twelve thousand or less' was drummed into me!

I think the 'possible conclusion' is clear enough, though. The flight crew MAY have maintained altitude, or reduced altitude, to 12,000 feet because of sudden de-pressurisation?
 
spacecadet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 5:31 am

Quoting abba (Reply 161):
I don't think it works both ways. Have the authorities found that there were terrorists on board I highly doubt that it would not have leaked somehow.

Ah, and here you're trying to make more logical jumps. I never said anything like what you're implying. What I was responding to was someone saying that the fact that they haven't announced a passenger or crewmember was a terrorist by now must mean they've all been cleared. Yet to someone who believed in a different theory, the fact that they haven't announced that they've all been cleared must mean they have *not* been cleared. It's open to interpretation on either side. Either they just haven't announced what they know, or they still don't know yet. You can't really infer anything from their lack of an announcement. It's down to personal bias how you interpret that information, or lack thereof.

And the same goes for many pieces of evidence we have in this case so far.

[Edited 2014-03-23 22:31:49]
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jetfuel
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 5:32 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 241):

I am sorry if this was asked and answered before, but how did the officials know it dropped to 12,000 feet and how did they just discover it now and not when they looked for it previously? Do you think the source is from the Chinese government, Malaysian government, or another government?

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/23/world/...irlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

There is no credible evidence about this drop to 12,000 ft. Without an active encoding transponder how can they make this statement. CAUTION - so much heresay without proof
Where's the passion gone out of the airline industry? The smell of jetfuel and the romance of taking a flight....
 
photchan
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 5:36 am

A Long-Time A.net reader and previous member (probably about 6 years ago!)....

I've been following this discussion as best as possible over the 40+ threads, and have a couple of questions/comments (apologies if they've been discussed elsewhere but i'm fairly certain I haven't seen anything...)

1) Langkawi : I saw a post on another random blog stating that if MH370 experienced a rapid decompression or lithium fire, that knocked out their ability to communicate, then based on their position, they pilot would vector towards Langkawi which is directly opposite the peninsula and was potentially a straight-in approach based on their last known position. Has this been explored further?

2) The Flight Sim Connection : Why is so much effort apparently being spent on the Captain's flight sim? It seems that the guy was passionate about his job - many years ago i was as passionate about flight simming, and at that time I would have been envious of his rig. But seems to me that they are just chasing tails here. Of course there are files deleted, it par for course when dealing with MS FlightSim.

3) Cargo Manifest : Apparently Malaysia is refusing to release this information - however isn't this information already with the insurers? Consignees who had their shipments on MH370 would certainly be dealing with insurance companies by now?

4) WSJ just popped up saying that an MH777 has diverted to HKG earlier today due to a mechanical error. But they've referenced the story as if this has something to do directly with MH370 rather than being a random incident.
 
TheCommodore
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43

Mon Mar 24, 2014 5:40 am

Quoting lazybones (Reply 239):
I guess that odd looking turret at the front of the Ilyushin Il-76 comes in really handy for eyeballing debris. With a bit of luck this location will be confirmed 100% soon.

Well, lets hope the Chinese airforce can find the "target" debris better than they can find RAAF base Pearce !

http://www.firstpost.com/world/mh370...-airport-in-australia-1445597.html
        

[Edited 2014-03-23 22:43:00]
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