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cat3appr50
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 8:39 pm

What is the source/objective data that confirms after being West of Malaysia, past VPG VOR, VAMPI, and MEKAR (I guess that's the current furthest Westward waypoint by radar reported...but who knows, it started out as IGREX, then was MEKAR, and then maybe TOPIN...not sure what waypoint and altitude it might be this week 25000 ft, 12,000 ft. MEKAR, TOPIN, what? )...in any event what is the source/reasoning that their flight path went direct South (at what seems to be asserted as a line of constant Longitude) with no variation East or West, or that they didn't go further West and then Southeast, after whatever radar waypoint was truly the last waypoint West of Malaysia before turning South for another 4.5-5 hours?

So hard to follow the logic being reported, let alone the constant change in radar, etc. data being reported
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 8:41 pm

Quoting spyglass (Reply 150):
Sorry, but all the "satellite data" notwithstanding, I don't believe that plane ever went into the drink. It's on the ground somewhere either in a large hangar or very well camouflaged. There also likely around 230 dead from hypoxia. A "Payne Stewart" type explanation makes no sense, and since no motive has been established and apparently no ELT signal received, to me this stands as an incident planned and evidently accomplished. I have a pretty good idea how it was done, but not certain by who (or whom, as the case may be)......'course I could be tinklin' in the wind, too. Time will tell.

Do you have anything solid to back that up? And I suppose Inmarsat is just making its findings up?

I apologize that I can't buy into your well thought out theory despite all the evidence you're providing  
 
art
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 8:49 pm

Quoting spyglass (Reply 150):
Sorry, but all the "satellite data" notwithstanding, I don't believe that plane ever went into the drink. It's on the ground somewhere either in a large hangar or very well camouflaged.

So the slightly more scientific data-based approach adopted by Inmarsat is less believable to you? Time to debunk Inmarsat's data (I would suggest that is impossible) or their calculation methodology (which is reported to have passed peer review) to render their claims less believable than yours, methinks.
 
802flyguy
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 8:54 pm

Sorry if this had already been mentioned, but it is sad (in more than one way) that floating garbage in the ocean is complicating the search:

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/21/wo...ing-plane-ocean-garbage/index.html


"(CNN) -- Another debris field, another new and so-far futile focus in the search for Flight MH370.
Two weeks after the Malaysia Airlines jet disappeared, one thing has been made clear: the ocean is full of garbage, literally.
"It isn't like looking for a needle in a haystack," Conservation International senior scientist M. Sanjayan said of the difficulty in finding the Boeing 777 aircraft. "It's like looking for a needle in a needle factory. It is one piece of debris among billions floating in the ocean." "...
 
theaviator380
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 8:56 pm

Does any one what happened to Pilot's sim? Forensic experts were in a process of retrieving data isn't it ? Any new info on that yet?

Also does it really that long to conclude who rang pilot or whom he rang 30mins before take off? What kind of discussion it involved?
 
Trin
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 8:59 pm

Quoting theaviator380 (Reply 155):
Also does it really that long to conclude who rang pilot or whom he rang 30mins before take off? What kind of discussion it involved?

That has been going around in my head today, too. I think that they need to come out and provide details of what this phonecall was about. I am sure it will be revealed to be a completely benign thing.
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 9:00 pm

Quoting cat3appr50 (Reply 151):
in any event what is the source/reasoning that their flight path went direct South (at what seems to be asserted as a line of constant Longitude) with no variation East or West, or that they didn't go further West and then Southeast, after whatever radar waypoint was truly the last waypoint West of Malaysia before turning South for another 4.5-5 hours?

As far as I understand, based on the Inmarsat analysis it can be establisehd that the aircraft was at some point across the southern arc at 8:11 am. No further refinement based on the Inmarsat data can be made.

Apparently the southern end of the southern arc is supported by an NTSB analysis that has not been made public as the "highest probability track".
 
AR385
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 9:05 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 147):
Wonder what FWF and his unnamed source(s) are saying now? Gonna head over to his Twitter... doubt that egomanic is saying much

Edit: seems like he's sticking to his guns lol. He claims to not trust the US government yet he is trusting his US government source? He is sounding pretty crazy in his tweets, he's either gonna be able to say "I told you so!" to everyone forever or he just needs to STFU

I agree. But remember how much sway he was having here and the amount of people who believed the craziness he was spewing.

Quoting spyglass (Reply 150):
Sorry, but all the "satellite data" notwithstanding, I don't believe that plane ever went into the drink. It's on the ground somewhere either in a large hangar or very well camouflaged.

You are obviously kidding, or there is something wrong with how you have read and interpreted the information of the past 40 threads. Or probably you have not even read a single one of them. At this point to still believe something like that is beyond me. Of course, you have every right to. But the evidence is the evidence.
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 9:17 pm

Quoting rj777 (Reply 144):
the Malaysian Military is covering up something, with the biggest evidence being that MH is refusing to release the cargo manifest. That manifest may be one of the biggest clues we have and might help searchers determine if any of this "debris" is a match.

The searchers have been briefed on what was in the cargo. We (public and a.net rubberneckers) have no need to know.

Quoting rj777 (Reply 144):
I have a feeling that we're going to have another Egyptair 990 on our hands where the Malaysians disagree with the NTSB findings.

The NTSB won't be making any findings, because they're not the investigating authority.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 146):
I guess sovereign immunity allows them to conduct their own investigation.

No. Annex 13 of the International Convention on Civil Aviation determines who leads the investigation. If the final impact occurred in international waters, it's the state of registration (Malaysia). If it occurred in Australian waters (which seems unlikely at this stage), Australia would lead.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
holzmann
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 9:27 pm

DER SPIEGEL claims MH370 to be the biggest aviation mystery since Ameila Earhart...

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...mer-on-fate-of-mh370-a-960464.html
DISCLAIMER: Airliners.net is an AIRBUS forum. Boeing Commercial Airplanes, if it has considered doing so in the past, should in no way consider supporting this website.
 
hivue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 9:32 pm

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 159):
The NTSB won't be making any findings, because they're not the investigating authority.

I imagine the NTSB will be invited/allowed to contribute its    as the official investigative body for the country of manufacture of the missing aircraft.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
mffoda
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 9:35 pm

There was some early reports that the pilots family was missing/left their home preceding this flight. Has anyone confirmed this, or was this media rambling?
harder than woodpecker lips...
 
hivue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 9:45 pm

Quoting mffoda (Reply 162):
There was some early reports that the pilots family was missing/left their home preceding this flight. Has anyone confirmed this, or was this media rambling?

See rcair1's sanity check:
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 42 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 21 2014 in Civil Aviation)

under "Pilot Related Conspiracy Theories."
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
skopsko
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 9:45 pm

Something about the Malaysian government announcement that the plane is lost and everyone is dead doesn't make sense to me. First, they still have no physical proof of the plane crashed and no bodies have been found so far. And while the search is still being conducted and new "evidence" of debris is being discovered everyday, why not wait a few more days to announce something like this? Something is not natural about the way this investigation is going, and I feel there's more to this story that the Malaysian (and perhaps other governments) are not revealing.

This announcement seems a little bit like an "excuse" to bring temporary closure to the issue, so they get the pressure off their backs, but there's just so many strange circumstances in this case, that you can't believe it's just an "accident" and that they'd fly south to "nowhere" do just dump the plane. Just my two cents.
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 9:51 pm

Quoting skopsko (Reply 164):
Something about the Malaysian government announcement that the plane is lost and everyone is dead doesn't make sense to me. First, they still have no physical proof of the plane crashed and no bodies have been found so far.

While I don't buy into the evidence-less conspiracy theories, I think they should at least explain why they said what they did or be a bit less certain. They could say that the plane was left with 30 mins of fuel while it was 5 hours away from any shoreline and no ELT signals have been heard from life rafts or whatever, but even if they're 99% sure the plane crashed, I agree that they shouldn't be saying it

I also think the Malaysians are being a bit fishy but I think it's mostly due to incompetence and maybe they're dragging their feet, not because of a conspiracy, but because it shows how poor their radar may be or that they were allowing dangerous cargo or something. Then again, what we hear and what goes on behind the scenes could be much different
 
cpw
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 9:51 pm

Quoting rj777 (Reply 144):
I have a feeling that we're going to have another Egyptair 990 on our hands where the Malaysians disagree with the NTSB findings.
Quoting hivue (Reply 161):
I imagine the NTSB will be invited/allowed to contribute its as the official investigative body for the country of manufacture of the missing aircraft.

NTSB has been known to release entities from participating as active members in an investigation if they speak about the investigation on their own (Asiana Airlines, if I remember correctly). It is not NTSB's role to speak on behalf of the investigation - they are not the lead investigators. NTSB is rightfully maintaining its silence on the matter, because they're supporting the efforts.

On March 12, NTSB released the following news release (http://www.ntsb.gov/news/2014/140312.html):

Quote:

NTSB UPDATES STATEMENT ON MISSING B-777 INVESTIGATION
MARCH 12

National Transportation Safety Board investigators who traveled to Kuala Lumpur over the weekend are assisting Malaysian authorities who are leading the search efforts for the Boeing 777 that went missing five days ago.

Investigators with expertise in air traffic control and radar are providing technical assistance to the Malaysian authorities who are working on locating the missing jetliner.

The NTSB plans no further releases of information on the investigation.

See the last sentence, and the fact that they stated that Malaysian authorities are leading the search efforts almost two weeks ago. NTSB is doing exactly what they would expect of agencies supporting efforts where it is the lead agency.
 
shortstack81
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:05 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 147):
seems like he's sticking to his guns lol. He claims to not trust the US government yet he is trusting his US government source? He is sounding pretty crazy in his tweets, he's either gonna be able to say "I told you so!" to everyone forever or he just needs to STFU

I get the distinct sense there's two camps in the US establishment, and the people leaking to FWF and others basically think air piracy/terrorism/hijacking is the camp whose leaks have driven some of the coverage in the US. It took almost 10 days for media to even consider this could be a horrific accident.

Either that or his sources are lying to him for whatever reason.

I'm very sad about the whole situation. I hope the families get answers.
 
Pihero
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:05 pm

Want to know more about Inmarsat satellite 'pings'?
This is the clearest, easiest to understand explanation about the *pings* :
Flight 370 and pings
You could also see the article underneath, with the NTSB / INMARSAT determination.
I do not fully agree with the first article as I see, after study, a time-based solution rather than an angular one... which is IMO confirmed by the use of Doppler shifts to discriminate the Northern arcs from the South path : Apparently there is a slight wobble on the satellite caused bay the fact that our Earth is not a perfect globe. These fraquency shifts match those tried in the South.

I am really amazed that , eighteen days after the accident, people still go on proposing the most outlandish theories, without the first hint at technical knowledge, the only basis for their elucubrations being generously ascribed to being of a different culture.

The public has the right to to think or even to ask that some factual documents should have been released : the original loadsheet, with the fuel quantity / the cargo manifest / the VHF Com exchanges between Flight 370 and the various ATCs / even the crew details on last month activity / the weather file they were given... etc...
...But the public has absolutely no right to demand that these be released. The Malaysian government is of a sovereign country and who are we, we and our arrogance to demand it ?

On the same subject, are we not in an aviation forum whereas those interested in political criticisms probably have thousands of sites to vent their prejudices ?

I for one was deeply moved by the Prime Minister made his public announcement that all hopes of finding anyone alive should be abandoned. That was the first and only time I watched the news on this subject and it came out of the blue in the middle of a political show I was watching about our week-end elections.
If any of you have any doubt on my feelings, I love Malaysia, like I do another fifty or so other countries and I hope i'd have some time in the near future to see friends there, do some touring and some serious diving.

Regards

[Edited 2014-03-24 15:11:25]
Contrail designer
 
mffoda
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:09 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 163):
See rcair1's sanity check:
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 42 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 21 2014 in Civil Aviation)

under "Pilot Related Conspiracy Theories."

Yes, I read that. It does not cover the whereabouts of the Captains family... Unless I missed it.

Regards,
harder than woodpecker lips...
 
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PW100
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:18 pm

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 128):
At first I thought you were just having some fun. Then I found this . . .http://www.boeing.com/boeing/defense...ts/702/Inmarsat-5/Inmarsat-5.page?Who knew?bt

You probably aware, but just to point out. You were referring to Inmarsat-5. The Inmarsat-3 series were build by Lockheed Martin Astro Space . . .

Rgds,
PW100
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
ozark1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:24 pm

Quoting BA84 (Reply 44):
They were incapacitated, or dead, not terrified.They just went to sleep.

Yes, I agree completely. I have thought this from the beginning and am confident that they all lost consciousness quickly.
 
PacNWjet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:30 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 168):
...But the public has absolutely no right to demand that these be released. The Malaysian government is of a sovereign country and who are we, we and our arrogance to demand it ?

The public may have no right to demand information, but it actually is in the interest of governments to release information to the public if it maintains confidence and trust in the safety of commercial aviation. Assuming that what brought down MH 370 were circumstances that represent odds on the order of, say, a billion to one, that actually speaks rather well of the safety of commercial aviation. Passenger airlines are by and large privately run operations these days, but governments still have an interest in maintaining confidence in a vital element of global commerce (this is even more true where governments own and/or operate passenger airlines). If it is the case that the MH 370 accident was caused by something that is exceedingly rare (with an infinitesimal chance of ever happening again), governments that would like to see citizens retain their trust in air travel would be well advised to provide enough information as possible to promote that trust. In the end, it's good public relations.
 
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p51tang
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:30 pm

Quote:
As air traffic controllers struggled to re-establish contact with Flight 370, military radar at the Butterworth air force base on Malaysia’s west coast picked up an unidentified aircraft near where the plane disappeared.

But the watch team, normally an officer and three enlisted personnel, either failed to notice the signal or decided not to designate and track it as a “zombie,” which would have pushed the information up the chain of command and possibly alerted air command.

At a briefing on the base the next night, about 80 air force personnel were told there was “no proof” the unidentified signal showed the missing plane making a sharp turn, flying back across Peninsular Malaysia and then turning again and heading northwest over the Strait of Malacca, a person familiar with the situation said.

But investigators now believe that is exactly what happened.

The failure to recognize Flight 370 in the radar data — or refusal to do so, to avoid the embarrassment of admitting an unidentified plane had breached air defense — meant the Malaysian authorities continued to search in the seas to the east instead of the west of the peninsula. Military radar last recorded the signal at 2:22 a.m. about 200 nautical miles northwest of Butterworth, according to an image of the radar track.

The authorities also failed to move quickly on data that showed the plane continuing to fly nearly seven more hours: a series of regular handshake signals from the plane to a satellite seeking to determine if the aircraft was still in range.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/23/wo...outine-and-flight-vanish.html?_r=0

So Malaysian Air Traffic Control had the first heads up that MH370 went from a node on the radar with the transponder tag MH370,to a node with no identifiable tag.An unidentified aircraft?.Perhaps they chose not to elevate this to their Superiors?.If they did,then we have a compounding problem.In that Malaysian Air Traffic Control had ample time to figure out that something was 'going down' inasmuch as Flight MH 370 deviated from it's original flight plan into assumed 'cloak mode' all the way across Malaysian Territory from Kota Bharu to Penang.

Someone in the flight-deck has a 'Major Grievance' with the Malaysian Government.

1/ Incredibly bad PR for a Government Owned and Operated Airline Company.

2/ Massive costs for search and recovery.

3/ Huge payouts to the family's involved.

4/ Investigations of Malaysian Air Traffic Control and Governance.


If this plane is in the 'Diamantina Deep' http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamantina_Deep' and I suspect that it is, then you are going to need technology that is far in excess of that used with the Air France 447 Crash http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447,

For Flight 447 they used the Remus 6000 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUV_ABYSS This has a mission depth of 6,000M.

Diamantina Deep http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...mons/0/03/Diamantinatopography.svg is in excess of 7,000M. (7 Km) or to put it another way.Take the Burj Khalifa in Dubai,the Tallest Building in the world, and stack it 8 times up into the sky.You now have Diamantina Deep.
 
mark2fly1034
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:31 pm

Lets say that what they find off the cost off Australia is the plane and it has been at drift for 16/17 days now how far away could the black box be? Would it go to the bottom kind of like AF or is there a chance it might be floating as well?
 
Lindenwold
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:36 pm

Quoting mffoda (Reply 169):

I heard the Malaysians won't even interview the family while they're grieving, out of respect.
 
chaseus1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:36 pm

RIP to those on board. Sometimes the very field of aviation that we love so much makes us so sad.

There were people on that plane that hated to travel, and people that loved to travel. People that hated to fly, and people that loved to fly. And children that may have not even understood what was going on.
May they all Rest in Peace.

And may their loved ones get the answers they need so they may find some peace as well.

[Edited 2014-03-24 15:38:03]
 
flyzapper
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:40 pm

Quoting Mark2fly1034 (Reply 174):

A few days ago, I calculated that the debris could have drifted 200-400 miles from the crash site (using oceanographic currents and wind direction). Updating to today's date, 300-500 miles is realistic.
 
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TheRedBaron
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:44 pm

Quoting mffoda (Reply 111):
Check out Qnincy Illinois's annual skydive event that started in 92 and went on for years.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0jUus74x9c

D.B. Copper and (IF big IF) they could parachute out of the 777 that was done at night...a whole different animal...
The best seat in a Plane is the Jumpseat.
 
Backseater
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:47 pm

Estimating altitude and climb rate changes west of Penang

One thing that is particularly baffling to me is that the investigators only seem to release incomplete primary radar data: either coordinates without altitude or altitude without coordinates and of course no time stamps.

So using radar horizon calculation, I have attempted to fill some of the gaps.

Yesterday in my post #112 in thread #43, I analyzed the slide entitled "Military radar from Pulau Perak to last plot at 02:22H". I described what I believed to be a climb out starting probably as low as 1,000ft and proceeding through 6,000, then 18,000 and finally 32,000ft when radar contact was lost.

Those valued were inferred from the target going in and out of radar visibility. It is indeed hard to explain otherwise given that a 777 under any angle must have a huge RCS.

Looking at the data further, I suggest that the suddenly weakening radar returns on radial 295 between approx. 36 and 67 nm out are due to the fact that the low rate of climb of MH370 at that point roughly matched the rate of increase of the minimum target altitude for the radar to detect it. Essentially the target was teetering on the edge of visibility for its altitude. I estimate its rate of climb to be arounf 125ft/nm. I know, every pilot speaks about ft/min but I do not want to guess the speed at that point. Let's just say that if its ground speed had been 300kts, the rate of climb should have been around 650ft/min.

Clearly, that rate of climb could not have been maintained the whole time because:
- the airplane once out of radar visibility would not have reappeared later
- the airplane could not have reached 32,000ft 200 miles out.

I therefore estimate that at about 12,000ft, about 142nm from Penang on the radial 295, the rate of climb was probably doubled to about 250ft/nm (maybe in the range of 1,200 to 1,400 ft/min).
 
David L
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:48 pm

Quoting cpw (Reply 46):
I think this is going to be one of the takeaways from this whole event. This investigation is dynamic -- people are learning how to analyze limited data to come to a better understanding of where the plane is, and "fill in the blanks." While at times is may seem like the authorities are changing their story or not releasing data (even though that may have happened on occasion - that's somewhat irrelevant at this point), I think much of the dynamic changes to the common operating picture is due to an evolving understanding of what the data are telling us.

   Precisely.

Quoting PacNWjet (Reply 172):

That's what accident investigations are for. This one has barely begun.
 
mffoda
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:52 pm

Quoting Lindenwold (Reply 175):

Quoting mffoda (Reply 169):

I heard the Malaysians won't even interview the family while they're grieving, out of respect.

I can fully understand and support that position.

However, there were reports that the Captains family left their home (or are missing) the day before the disappearance of MH-370. I am only trying to confirm if this is fact or fiction...

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014...kids-the-day-before-disappearance/

Regards,
harder than woodpecker lips...
 
antskip
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:56 pm

The Chinese Government and many relatives of those on board the plane are understandably livid over yet another announcement part-truth, part make-believe, from the Malaysian Government.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/missi...s-executioners-20140325-hvmf6.html

The media is now full of news items saying that everyone on everyone died from this plane - as a fact; as closure; as a piece of brilliant discovery and public disclosure. The announcement contained little evidence for most of its claims. If they have actual evidence of the destruction of the plane and of the demise of every one of the people on it, then they really need to show it now. If they don't have the evidence, why make such claims as if they are at this moment factually supported? Maybe it is yet another attempt by the Malaysian Government personnel to save face - at the expense of both evidential truth and the interests of all other interested parties. Much of what was said yesterday may well turn out to be so - but that will not make yesterday's claims true at the time they were actually said. The Malaysian Government are simply speaking to another agenda, just as they have from the very first night..

[Edited 2014-03-24 15:58:08]

[Edited 2014-03-24 16:18:32]

[Edited 2014-03-24 16:19:46]

[Edited 2014-03-24 16:34:23]
 
Lindenwold
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:04 pm

search is suspended today for both sea and air SAR.
 
capri
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:04 pm

Well the weather decided to join in the mystery, they have just suspended the search
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:10 pm

Quoting AustrianZRH (Reply 125):
"They managed to cover up 9/11 so they try to do the same here. It's all the Americans waging a secret war against China."

WTF^Googolplexplex?

Actually, web browser pilots have to perform memory items when dealing with conspiracy nuts.

1. Explain that a cover-up might cover up a much more heinous crime. For example, 9/11 was perpetrated by the US government to destroy the hidden UFO base the aliens built in floor 96 of the World Trade Center. Ask them if there is any evidence against this theory.

2. Demand evidence that your discussion partner is *not* working for the government or a secret service. Avoid all discussions as long as he or she has not submitted such evidence.

At the moment I'm dealing with people who cannot believe that you could calculate positions from INMARSAT data. It is plausible that both the clocks aboard MH370 and the INMARSAT satellite were synchronized using GPS signals. The old argument from ignorance...


David
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
valleyflyer
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:10 pm

The following sentence from the Inmarsat VP makes me think that statistical modelling based on various parameters such as signal strength, time delay, etc. of a large number of flights was used to derive the solution:

"They managed to find a way in which to say just a single ping can be used to say that the plane was both powered up and travelling, and then by a process of elimination comparing it to other known flights established that it went south."

The data must have then fit the southern route very distinctly, given their confidence. Would be a sensible approach, if it provides meaningful results.
 
Razza74
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:18 pm

AMSA have suspended search operations today March 25th
https://www.amsa.gov.au/media/
Ahh the joy of living under a flightpath
 
rcair1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:20 pm

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 139):
With the new Inmarsat data, do you think they found a difference in the length of the pings, or was it something else? I read somewhere that the satellite itself moves and that is what they used.

They clearly found a way to do it - and hats off to them. Very good work - and sounds quite innovative.
I do think it was not straight forward - I would love to know how they did it.
rcair1
 
mffoda
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:21 pm

Quoting TheRedBAron (Reply 178):

Quoting mffoda (Reply 111):
Check out Qnincy Illinois's annual skydive event that started in 92 and went on for years.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0jUus74x9c

D.B. Copper and (IF big IF) they could parachute out of the 777 that was done at night...a whole different animal...

Hey, hold on there "TheRedBAron"...  

I was merely pointing out that people routinely jumped out jets/ high performance aircraft. I am not suggesting that there was a parachute jump from MH-370. I was only implying that jumping from jets (both military and civilian) has been done for decades.

In the case of DB Cooper, no one really knows what happened to him (except maybe Elvis)?? OTOH, thousands of skydivers successfully managed to survive their jumps from a 727 at the Quincy Illinois annual skydive event.  

Regards,
harder than woodpecker lips...
 
skopsko
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:22 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 165):

Yeah, I agree. The announcement itself was just very abrupt -- no explanation of how they arrived at the conclusion or how Inmarsat people arrived at it. I think people deserve to know what they discovered and how they came up with that conclusion. They also discount the possibility that there may be potential survivors even if the plane ended up in the water. And if they're so sure that it crashed in the south Indian Ocean, then it shouldn't take too much longer to find the debris, so why not wait a few more days to find the plane and then today's announcement wouldn't even be necessary? Just some very illogical stuff, but then again we don't have enough info to go by.
 
capri
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:29 pm

Quoting skopsko (Reply 190):
Yeah, I agree. The announcement itself was just very abrupt -- no explanation of how they arrived at the conclusion or how Inmarsat people arrived at it. I think people deserve to know what they discovered and how they came up with that conclusion. They also discount the possibility that there may be potential survivors even if the plane ended up in the water. And if they're so sure that it crashed in the south Indian Ocean, then it shouldn't take too much longer to find the debris, so why not wait a few more days to find the plane and then today's announcement wouldn't even be necessary? Just some very illogical stuff, but then again we don't have enough info to go by.

maybe they figured out that with bad weather forcasted there will be no SAR, and decided to come out and just announce it, it really just gets tougher and tougher, and with Autumn in that region, I am not sure how intermittent SAR will be? which will drag more and more days to it
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:30 pm

Quoting skopsko (Reply 190):

They're referring to the next press conference. Today they have just announced that all persons have perished and that the plane, according to INMARSAT data, flew to the Southern Indian Ocean.


David
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
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American 767
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:58 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 192):
Today they have just announced that all persons have perished and that the plane, according to INMARSAT data, flew to the Southern Indian Ocean.

Yes, and not close to any suitable landing field for the plane. It flew on a South heading for a while before ditching into the Indian Ocean.
Ben Soriano
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Tue Mar 25, 2014 12:01 am



Quoting captainx (Reply 83):
Immersat is saying they assumed 350kt speed. Isn't that rather low?

We don't know if that is IAS, GS or TAS. If it is IAS, at cruise this would not really be low.

Quoting harry1983 (Reply 77):
Quoting captainx (Reply 69):
How would the autopilot respond to all engines running out of fuel? Will it glide at min sink until touchdown?

I would have thought it would have been sophisticated enough to do this, although question if that's the desired behavior, as you're not guaranteed to be over unpopulated area and it's highly unlikely to glide straight onto an awaiting runway.

I guess the AP would just trip off, otherwise it'd stall trying to maintain the set altitude with default behavior.

I recall a thread about this. If hazy memory serves, a Boeing would try to maintain speed. When power is lost, it will pitch down to maintain speed and sink at the commanded speed. An Airbus would try to maintain trajectory. When power is lost, it will pitch up to maintain altitude, slowing down until just above stall speed. Then alpha protection will kick in and the plane will sink at a speed just above stall speed.

As I said, hazy memory so I may have that backwards. Perhaps a driver can clarify.


Quoting damirc (Reply 17):
In regards to the Langkawi theories. The airport was closed, as it is closed each and every day at that time:

http://aip.dca.gov.my/aip%20pdf/AD/A...l.pdf

Closed doesn't mean they put up barriers at the ends of the runway. It just means there are no services and it is illegal to land there. Given enough light to go by, you could still physically land at a closed airport.



Quoting Mark2fly1034 (Reply 174):

Lets say that what they find off the cost off Australia is the plane and it has been at drift for 16/17 days now how far away could the black box be? Would it go to the bottom kind of like AF or is there a chance it might be floating as well?

AFAIK Recorders don't float. Unless they are stuck to a floating piece of debris (highly unlikely), they will have sunk to the bottom.

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 179):
One thing that is particularly baffling to me is that the investigators only seem to release incomplete primary radar data: either coordinates without altitude or altitude without coordinates and of course no time stamps.

Primary data is used in air defense so it may simply be that governments are being discreet about military capabilities, or lack thereof.

Quoting skopsko (Reply 190):
The announcement itself was just very abrupt -- no explanation of how they arrived at the conclusion or how Inmarsat people arrived at it. I think people deserve to know what they discovered and how they came up with that conclusion.

I'd wager there will eventually be an article detailing the method published in an industry or academic journal. In due time.

Quoting skopsko (Reply 190):
They also discount the possibility that there may be potential survivors even if the plane ended up in the water.

AFAIK it is rather cold in the area, so even if someone had survived a crash...

[Edited 2014-03-24 17:03:31]

[Edited 2014-03-24 17:04:03]

[Edited 2014-03-24 17:05:47]

[Edited 2014-03-24 17:08:34]
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
djm18
Posts: 104
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Tue Mar 25, 2014 12:18 am

Quoting MSY-MSP" class="quote" target="_blank">MSY-MSP (Reply 113):
It is a theory that we put together, that fits almost all the facts of the case. One other thought we had that I had forgotten to mention is that it could have been a complete no-win scenario. If the cabin did depressurize and then the engines were not responsive, it could be the choice between high altitude with Hypoxia but keep the plane in once piece or fly low and fast and risk the airframe coming apart.

MSY-MSP: It is great to speculate and it seems as if this is a well put together thesis. However, rather than trying to validate your thesis you should be working hard to invalidate your thesis. In other words, behavioral psychology is such that we are so focused on being right that we only selectively consider the data that fits out theory.

One of the great investors Barry Ritholtz likes to say, do not invest assuming that you are in the right. Instead you should invest assuming that you are wrong, this will motivate you to work harder to uncover the facts that you may have missed. Essentially this is a mechanism to work around our behavioral biases and develop a framework to look at all the data in an objective manner.

Perhaps you are right, but as someone said in an earlier post we will all be proven wrong in one way or another.
 
hivue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Tue Mar 25, 2014 12:18 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 194):
Quoting captainx (Reply 83):Immersat is saying they assumed 350kt speed. Isn't that rather low?

We don't know if that is IAS, GS or TAS. If it is IAS, at cruise this would not really be low.

If it's IAS I would think it might be very close to exceeding Vmo no matter what the altitude and Mmo at cruise.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
Pihero
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Tue Mar 25, 2014 12:20 am

Quoting PacNWjet (Reply 172):
The public may have no right to demand information, but it actually is in the interest of governments to release information to the public if it maintains confidence and trust in the safety of commercial aviation.

The safety of Air transport has already been proven bryond any doubt. This accident will not change its statistics in any way.
So that argument is moot.

Quoting PacNWjet (Reply 172):
If it is the case that the MH 370 accident was caused by something that is exceedingly rare

Whatever the cause, be it man, weather, technical related, an air accident is alwayscaused by a set of factors that is exceedingly rare... so what is new ? I mean other than ghoulish interest and the opportunity to watch the best mystery show ever, while sipping a beer with neighbours ?

Quoting PacNWjet (Reply 172):
it's good public relations.

It's only in twisted democracies - or worse autiocracies - that PR becomes important. Far more important is public education. It has, at least, to show a modicum of respect for the citizens. Unfortuinately, politics, and everything else by extension is just a show, exactly the way a lot of the *public* and the media is treating this accident and everything around it. ( The way some have increased their viewership by just bringing a simulator on scene ).
Contrail designer
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Tue Mar 25, 2014 12:24 am

I am extremely doubtful that the Inmarsat speeds quotes are IAS, since that would require a lot of assumptions and wouldn't be terribly accurate anyway. It is likely GS as that would require the fewest assumptions.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Tue Mar 25, 2014 12:27 am

Quoting DJM18 (Reply 195):
owever, rather than trying to validate your thesis you should be working hard to invalidate your thesis. In other words, behavioral psychology is such that we are so focused on being right that we only selectively consider the data that fits out theory.

      Usually when putting forth an idea, one has that little voice in their head saying "well, the theory has X and Y wrong with it." Instead of telling it to everyone and trying to 'slip one past everyone,' why not keep the theory to yourself and investigate the problems or dump the theory entirely? Or post it while saying what may be wrong, as to not waste everyone's times, and really further the discussion?

Instead, most people have their pet theory and they pick and choose facts that fit it, ignore/downplay evidence that goes against it, and fill in the rest with assumptions. That is how bad conspiracy theories are born

Quoting Pihero (Reply 197):
I mean other than ghoulish interest and the opportunity to watch the best mystery show ever, while sipping a beer with neighbours ?

To potentially save people in the future? And wondering what happened to MH370 makes one ghoulish??
 
photchan
Posts: 7
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44

Tue Mar 25, 2014 12:28 am

With respect to the SAR - are any of the countries using drones with advanced imaging capabilities? I would have thought that with the distances involved, that some of the military drones would be perfectly capable of the range/endurance required for this remote location?

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