alhena
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 2:17 pm

Quoting GZed (Reply 81):
1. Between 18:25 - 18:30 UTC the measured line shows 3 pings in quick succession. What do we make of that?

Maybe they are not pings but doppler shifts from normal ACARS packets?
 
jox
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 2:25 pm

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 99):
That is something I could not possibly answer definitively. As a non-critical system, I imagine it would be one of the first things to go when power is constrained, but of course that is just speculation.

That would be my guess as well.

But what about the APU? Wouldn't it try to auto-start when the (last) engine stops? Would it be a possibility that there is enough fuel in the hoses etc to let it start and run for a few seconds, powering the normal power buses (and hence the modem, causing it to re-sync to the satellite). Then the APU also runs out of fuel and shuts off as well. If that could be the scenario, we have a possible time for the crash. Long-shot, I know...
 
rcair1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 2:30 pm

Quoting anfromme (Reply 36):
Based on this, announcing that the plane was lost with all lives on board means we can finally start accepting this tragic loss of life.

There are also legal ramifications. People cannot start filing for life insurance, etc if there is no finding of death.

Quoting COOEE (Reply 42):
I think it could explain the random odd "Goodnight sign off call" due to onset hypoxia ( hypoxic impaired decision making)

No - no - no, and again - no. The "Goodnight" sign off call is NOT unusual. I've heard similar calls 100 times.

Quoting David L (Reply 45):
And the transponder?

  

Quoting David L (Reply 45):
The sign-off doesn't seem to be regarded as unusual by other pilots.

   Yes - thank you David L - can we GET OVER that please?

Quoting checksixx (Reply 47):
We have no idea if terrorism was or was not involved

Correct - which has nothing to do with where the a/c is, only why.

Quoting COOEE (Reply 59):
hypoxia set in to a point where turning off the ACARS or ignoring EICAS flashing alarms makes sense to the crew.

The alarms would go off FAR before hypoxia set in.
You cannot compare to Helios or Payne. The 777 is a much different a/c.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 64):
The process they describe is absolutely novel. They are looking for ~100Hz differences in a 1600MHz carrier, that's 6 millionths of a percentage point difference - noise, by any other name.

Yes - quite amazing that they even have a way to see that the frequency has shifted. Most receivers probably would not - but maybe if you can get deep into the firmware.

Quoting COOEE (Reply 76):
Could there be a slower decompression at altitude that would not trigger an alert?

No - it is based on altitude, not rate of climb.

Quoting COOEE (Reply 76):
"goodnight" sign off is strange -

Third time in 1 post. No - no - no, and again - no. The "Goodnight" sign off call is NOT unusual. I've heard similar calls 100 times.
rcair1
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 2:33 pm

Quoting jox (Reply 101):

If it's like almost all other transport jets, the apu would not auto start. The ram air turbine would auto deploy after loss of power on bus 1 and 2, and would power a hydraulic system which would in turn power a hydraulic driven electric generator that would power an emergency bus. The emergency bus is what it sounds like, emergency only and most systems on the aircraft would load shed. On my plane you are left with capt side PFD and ND, and one of the MFDs. 1 radio, maybe a transponder. (Which wouldn't matter because it was selected off anyways.)
 
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7BOEING7
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 2:53 pm

Quoting N757ST (Reply 103):
If it's like almost all other transport jets, the apu would not auto start.

On this airplane (and 787) APU will auto start.

Quoting N757ST (Reply 103):
The ram air turbine would auto deploy after loss of power on bus 1 and 2, and would power a hydraulic system which would in turn power a hydraulic driven electric generator that would power an emergency bus.

The engines although flamed out are still spinning and the engine driven hydraulic pumps are still functioning providing hydraulic power (depending on windmill speed).

Quoting N757ST (Reply 103):
On my plane you are left with capt side PFD and ND, and one of the MFDs. 1 radio, maybe a transponder.

The RAT provides power to both the Capt's and F/O's FLT INST buses.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 2:53 pm

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 102):
Third time in 1 post. No - no - no, and again - no. The "Goodnight" sign off call is NOT unusual. I've heard similar calls 100 times.

When training for my PPL, I was a bit upset with my radio work since I got flustered easily when ATC went off-script and I ended up sounding like an idiot, so I listened to some ATC from busy airports in the region.

It did not help. Listening to professional pilots will not teach you proper phraseology. In my experience with GA flying into airports shared by commercial traffic, I find it's actually the commercial traffic that "talks the most shit" so to speak. Only when it is someone on the horn that is clearly not a native English speaker do you hear perfectly standard communication (since they memorize it). When ATC tries to talk to them to get more details from them in a non-standard way, they are completely lost. In my opinion that's a safety hazard, but it hasn't caused any problems, so whatever.

It is my understanding that the cpt and f/o on this flight would have been educated in English schools, and in their aviation career use English extensively.

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that they would deviate from standard phrasing.

You're right, this whole thing just needs to be put to rest.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
rcair1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 3:05 pm

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 97):
The truth is that most days there is been no new information available.

Which is why I've not posted an updated Sanity Check in several days. There has been nothing to report.
With news today - there is, but it is a major revision so will take some time.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 97):
We've been following this story here in the DFW area with a family of one of the missing. Their frustration is with the press and the urgency they place on rumors with no evidence to support the rumors. Not with the airline

Thank you for posting this.
As I've stated many times in this forum, I have issues with the continue complaints leveled against everybody involved. While I'm quite sure both the Malaysian government and MH have made mistakes and learned lessons - they are in a difficult and complex situation that, even in the best of cases, would generate anger and frustration.

I have personal experience with this. Two years ago - I was that official standing on the stage in daily briefings given to 3000 some evacuated people - and I learned some things. The event was not as international, and we lost only 1 soul, but it is informative.
- People sometimes take "we do not know" as "we can not tell you" or "we are hiding something." Even if the fact is "we do not know."
- People under stress are unreasonable and understandably so. They will make statements and accusations based on fear and hurt. Expect it.
- BTW - officials are under stress as well. My family was evacuated as well.
- You, as an official, must focus on the people impacted - the press and politicians are far down the list.
Note: on the doors of the building where the daily briefings were held was posted the notice "By the order of the Sheriff, these briefings are for evacuees and are closed to press." That was enforced, we had deputies escort press out. Our focus was the people involved. Yes - that did cause us to get accused of all sorts of crap - but it was the right thing to do and the families appreciated and supported it.

I like to think we did a good job - maybe better than this case - but frankly, from here it is hard to tell.

If this is like any event - all involved will do after action reviews and will have the opportunity to learn - if they do or not depends on them. Frankly - I hope neither MH or Malaysia ever have need to call on this expertise again.
- rcair1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 3:26 pm

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 104):

Goes to show you the different philosophies of Airbus vs Boeing. Interesting.
 
Kelloggs
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 3:27 pm

rcair1 I respect what you say. The metars here in perth have been utter rubbish for the day and end of story there. There has been converations with my self and a friend who is former math teacher and her math has put it where the search is.While I cannot do algebraical math to save myself my friend has placed the aircraft to where everyone is looking. Unfortunately as an automotive engineer taking in the fuel range and burn. I come up with much the same yet hoped like hell for a different scenaio. I can say no more aside from my heartfelt feelings for all souls on board. May they rest in peace

I'm sure that I worked with one of the Kiwis on that flight. Top bloke. don't want to name names

[Edited 2014-03-25 08:51:17]
 
FltAdmiralRitt
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 3:44 pm

With such stormy conditions in the search area:
I am not sure that if we were to find small bits of plane's debris after 3 weeks pass,
that we could reconstruct anything to help narrow
down about where the A/C came down.
I mean ocean current modeling is fine, but is it plausible to model what 2-3 storms will do to drebris
on top of the currents.

It is seems to me that it is quite possible we will never find PROVEN surface debris from this doomed flight. More likely the A/C will be found by the same method as AF447, in a time frame measured in Years not months.

Meanwhile those flying in 777, and are not as "informed" about it's reliability will certainly be a touch
apprehensive when flying over a dark ocean. Not me though, as I already don't like flying to Hawaii in the daylight. so the apprehension on overwater flights is always there for me.
 
Backseater
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 3:46 pm

Radar data used as a forensic tool points to intentional maneuvering?

In my previous posts #112 in thread 43 and #178 in 44, I proposed that the aircraft may have climbed from a very low level to 32,000ft over the Strait of Malacca, using one slow rate of climb at first followed by a higher one until reaching cruise.

One of my assumptions was that the Butterowrth AB primary radar is close to ground level and not on some hilltop somewhere near Penang. I still do not know for sure but I have identified a 6m radome (05 27.741N 100 23.233E) on Butterworth AB, the center of which should be approx 10m above ground. If that is correct my previous "estimates" stand.

Yesterday I heard from many sources "the aircraft went down as low as 12,000ft." If I interpret that statement to mean Butterworth lost radar contact at 12,000ft on or close to the 65 radial, the plane must have been about 136nm from Penang and descending.

Crossing 12,000ft, the aircraft would have been about 17nm from the coast at Kota Bharu, Fishermern 10nm out from Kota Bharu reported a very low flying airplane. That makes perfect sense if we assume the plane was still descending. Shortly after that sighting another witness in Keterhe,a few miles south of Kota Bhary also reported a low flying aircraft (with landing lights on but without beacon lights) heading towards Bachok, south ot Kota Bharu.

At this point we have to start speculating just a bit to explain how the aircraft only reappeared west of Penang.
My only assumption is that at least one intelligent being is at the control and has meticulously planned what is going to happen next.

The trick is to avoid radar detection in realtime as it would most likely have triggered an airborne intercept to help a crew in trouble.
Flying a bit south of Kota Bharu, the plane is heading for the start of its low level crossing of Malaysia. There are two factors in its favor if it does not want to be painted by the primary radar:
- flying below the radar horizon, the farther away from the radar the better.
- staying in the projected shadow of any hill/mountain between the radar and the aircraft.

I think that the initial part of the crossing of Malaysia was done on an approx 230 heading, possibly at 5,000ft. The odds are very good that the aircraft would not be detected by Butterworth because there are mountains as close as 9 or 10nm from the radar in its south eastern sector. Their shadow 40nm away will be 4 times higher to which we must add the standard radar horizon altitude, had there been no obstacles. The radar is essentially blind to low level targets in that direction.

The last portion of the crossing when approaching the coast is more problematic because they are very few obstruction in the coastal plain. So crossing the coastal plain and out to sea, there are two alternatives:
- there are radar returns in that sector that have not been published (or found?) yet and the aircraft altitude cannot be hypothesized
- the aircraft remained invisible by flying below the physical radar horizon e.g. approx.1,000ft at 39nm, 1500ft at 48nm, ...
I propose that the plan was not to make too long a detour, just what is sufficient to stay hidden. The aircraft would fly at least 40nm away from the radar, unless a convenient mask came into play.

In the 220 to 270 radial range from Butterworth AB there lies an island with elevations up to 1,600ft. It is a mere 12 nm away from the radar antenna thus providing a huge cover 40nm from Butterworth. In that radial range the aircraft could therefore start climbing a bit, for instance to 3,000ft and remain essentially invisible to radar.

But as it turns out the aircraft reappears approx. 35nm from Butterworth, not on the final 295 radial but closer to 285R. It would therefore appear that the island may not have been used for cover after all and the aircraft simply popped up from its very low level once on the air route.

IMO such a scenario seem to explain the data and observations published so far without requiring any far fetched technical circumstances. It just requires some unfortunately misguided party in command of the aircraft who knows how to fly, navigate and has meticulously planned the egress path before.

If that scenario happens to be correct, I have no doubt that official investigators have known about it for a long time and the suggested path with altitude changes has been integrated into the final calculation of the aircraft maximum range.
 
polnebmit
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 3:50 pm

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 106):
Which is why I've not posted an updated Sanity Check in several days. There has been nothing to report.With news today - there is, but it is a major revision so will take some time...

You've done a great job in keeping some sanity in these threads with your Sanity Checks. Personally after thread 20ish... I somewhat lost interest in trying to read every response which for me ended up to be a lot of mumbo jumbo until the last 2 or 3 threads. I've always looked up to these forums to get some meaningful data from some posters that give a good perspective from various vantage points in the story. However it seems that some bloggers just took it a step further forcing conspiracy theory into the conversation / or posting questions that have already been answered dozens of times over and over again. We have members here from all sort of backgrounds and interests. Some like me just want to learn something new in our aviation hobby and all it entails. Others just want quick answers without doing proper research, thinking it's an aviation Wikipedia site. I get the feeling that some are journalists or reporters looking for a sensational bit of information to quote. Who knows. True, this is to bounce thoughts, ideas around. But it's appreciated if it's kept at reasonable degree.

I look forward to the next Sanity Check since it will help us, or at least me, come back to reality and make the adjustments in our theorizing and assumptions with this ever changing scenario.

[Edited 2014-03-25 08:58:27]
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 3:58 pm

Quoting polnebmit (Reply 111):
Personally after thread 20ish... I somewhat lost interest in trying to read every response which for me ended up to be a lot of mumbo jumbo until the last 2 or 3 threads

You learn quickly how to skip over the meaningless posts if you try. When mandala speaks, you should listen...  
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
Kelloggs
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 4:05 pm

Quoting polnebmit (Reply 111):
I look forward to the next Sanity Check since it will help us, or at least me, come back to reality and make the adjustments in our theorizing and assumptions with this ever changing scenario.


So do I. As I live in Perth as you we are wondering where it is too. but I got two 777s sitting in my office. Now lets stop wondering where it is and find it. we all need to find out where it is and why it is there. I mean what the hell is it doing 2500km south west of Perth?
 
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neutrino
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 4:07 pm

Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 68):

Quoting zeke (Reply 52):
Not sure what you call "without any major consequence", I would call a fire in the cockpit significant. This happened in a 737, a lot less electric than a 777.

I was referring to a couple of incidents involving a 777 and a 767, the former a United bird ( the latter I can't remember now ), where they have, in both cases, no real consequence ( no fumes, no EICAS notifications, nothing ). Both incidents were only known because the humor involved was enough to being posted as a funny topic in "some aviation / pilots forums"...

But as I said before, I'm very very far away from having any knowledge about how the console of a 777 would react if you spill your soda on it.... I just have the hunch ( and the hope !!!! ) that such a sofisticated and important piece of technology, capable to control a multimillion dollar wide body jet, and keep safe hundreds of souls, *should be* capable to withstand a reasonable amount of liquid spilled over ( by reasonable, I mean your average soda can, or cup of coffe...in other words, the amount and type of liquid that any crew could accidentally, unintentionally, spill..... if you take your garden hose, or a gallon of sulphuric acid to test it, probably the result will be ugly ).... I hope someone can jump and give us a better idea anyway.

Rgds.
G .

Not an airliner, much less a large ship such as the T7, but in my experience with the single seat A-4 Skyhawk, the cockpit consoles and electrics can take a little wetting abuse. In the days before "line shelters" were built, we have to receive the fighters in inclement weather. Sometimes, in heavy rain, we clamber up the ladder with umbrella in hand to open the canopy for the pilot to get out and then proceed to the not-easy task of hinging down the canopy.
When the rain cleared, we would give the cockpit a thorough check after mopping up puddles of water - usually not more than a cup or two - on the consoles and floor. *Clean bill of health, usually.
Yes, they are not waterproof but still, they are water-resistant to certain extents. I expect commercial airliners' instruments & electrics to be no less robust.

*As far as I can remember, there was only one case when the cockpit floor was literally flooded with a few inches of water when the canopy was not properly latched, leaving a gap for the rain to penetrate for a hour or so. That bird went to the service hanger for a few days to remove all instruments and stripping of the panels & wire bundles for a more systematic go over and clean up.
Potestatem obscuri lateris nescitis
 
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bikerthai
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 4:16 pm

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 106):
Quoting polnebmit (Reply 111):

  

Good point. For us who want to keep up with the sanity check but do not want to deal with the discussion (although some are quite good). Is there a way to set up for a "Read only" thread (AKA locked by Admin) so that we can quickly peak into the status?

Much appreciated and keep up the good work.
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
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bikerthai
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 4:26 pm

Quoting neutrino (Reply 114):
Yes, they are not waterproof but still, they are water-resistant to certain extents. I expect commercial airliners' instruments & electrics to be no less robust.

At a minimum all LRU's on the aircraft have to resists condensing humidity. I believe that is one of the qualification testing requirements. As "rain in the plane" is known to occur, I suspect dripping water is also a design condition. Finally, I am not sure if bird resistance windshield is a requirement, but if a broken windshield due to bird strike in the rain is a design consideration, then I would venture to guess that coffee or cola should not be an issue.

bt

(edit typo)

[Edited 2014-03-25 09:39:06]
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
davidzill
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 4:30 pm

My original theory from day one is panning out. I think it is reasonable to believe that the aircraft experienced a fire, either a cargo-induced or an electrical fire. The aircraft's original diversion path indicates that the pilots were dealing with something serious and needed to land quick. I think on their way to the divert field, the pilots were overwhelmed and subsequently disabled, or worse, they somehow lost control authority of the aircraft, and it flew itself until fuel exhaustion. I'm not too familiar with the flight controls on the 777 and if there is even a manual reversion option for the controls.

Other than all of that, the Malaysian government and their state-owned airline, Malaysia Air, have not helped one bit from day one, I believe they are covering up possible evidence for liabilities sake that may indicate what exactly was loaded as caro. I believe both lost complete credibility from day two or three, and this investigation is only going to be as good as the information that Malaysia willingly shares with investigators.

[Edited 2014-03-25 09:32:05]
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 4:33 pm

Quoting davidzill (Reply 120):
My original theory from day one is panning out. I think it is reasonable to believe that the aircraft experienced a fire, either a cargo-induced or an electrical fire. The aircraft's original diversion path indicates that the pilots were dealing with something serious and needed to land quick.

You make two points, both of which have been refuted. Neither scenario would incapacitate the aircraft in such a way for it to behave as it did.

If they wanted to land quick, they certainly didn't behave that way.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
doug_or
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 4:34 pm

Quoting COOEE (Reply 76):
Thanks Mir. Yes the hypoxic idea does have flaws - but I can only ponder why Helios 522 did not report the same alerts or putting masks on. I'm only trying to troubleshoot the more unconsidered outcomes. Would the pressure alert go off if the craft never got to pressurise as it climbed out from KL. I'm hoping there would be an alert. Could there be a slower decompression at altitude that would not trigger an alert?

The cabin of the aircraft starts out at the same pressure altitude as the airplane when on the ground (in this case sea level). As the aircraft climbs to its cruise altitude the cabin "climbs" (really it slowly depressurizes) to a cabin altitude of around 8,000' (meaning the pressure in the cabin is what you would find naturally in the atmosphere at 8,000'). Whenever the cabin altitude is detected to have gone above 10,000' you would get an aural warning and EICAS message (according to Francoflier earlier in this thread, I have no first hand knowledge of 777 systems). If the aircraft failed to pressurize at all this warning would have come as the airplane was climbing through 10,000'. If it depressurized at altitude the alert would have been triggered once enough air had leaked from the cabin to raise the cabin pressure above 10,000'.

My pet theory earlier had been that an explosive decompression was caused by to either metal fatigue or a bomb, and did damage to the transponder and comms. In the panic to afterwards the crew neglected to don masks or the hoses were cut by the event. They spun the altitude down and the heading back to the left and the autopilot flew that as te pilots passed out. That theory is now riddled with holes. You might find it it informative to review rcair1's sanity checks and google the Helios crash and aircraft pressurization for more info.
When in doubt, one B pump off
 
Trin
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 4:39 pm

Quoting FltAdmiralRitt (Reply 109):
I mean ocean current modeling is fine, but is it plausible to model what 2-3 storms will do to drebris
on top of the currents.

Yes. It is.
 
65mustang
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 4:42 pm

The. BBC is reporting today that an attempted "partial handshake" was attempted with a ground station at 8:19. ACARS via vhf maybe as it crashed?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26503141
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 4:44 pm

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 124):
The. BBC is reporting today that an attempted "partial handshake" was attempted with a ground station at 8:19. ACARS via vhf maybe as it crashed?

VHF? Where they were?! Forget about it.

edit: You may be confused: all communications through a satellite are communications to a ground station. Realistically the satellite is just a mirror (well, for 90s comm satellites anyway). They did not directly contact a ground station. That would be physically impossible at that location.

[Edited 2014-03-25 09:46:13]
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
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Moose135
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 4:51 pm

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 116):
For us who want to keep up with the sanity check but do not want to deal with the discussion (although some are quite good). Is there a way to set up for a "Read only" thread (AKA locked by Admin) so that we can quickly peak into the status?
rcair1 has included a link on his profile page to his latest sanity check under the "Homepage" field:

https://www.airliners.net/profile/rcair1

And may I add my thanks to him for consolidating what we know and what we don't! It must be a monumental job keeping up with the news and filtering out facts from speculation. Thank you!
KC-135 - Passing gas and taking names!
 
rcair1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 4:54 pm

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 105):
When training for my PPL, I was a bit upset with my radio work since I got flustered easily when ATC went off-script and I ended up sounding like an idiot, so I listened to some ATC from busy airports in the region.

This is true in emergency services as well. Sometimes the people who complain the most about others 'tying up the frequency' are the worst offenders. It comes with familiarity.

In a big event, or emergency - we do revert to proper calls. But in a less critical time - like hand off - we do not.

When I shut down from a fire/ems call - the proper protocol is "900 - RC1 is in service." at which they reply with simple the time (20:13).

In reality - even more often late night - I will say something like '900 - RC1 is back at station and in service - have a good night", or 'thanks for your help' or something. They will respond with - "You too - sleep well - 20;13."

It is very normal to deviate slightly - it is almost a courtesy between colleagues - in non emergency situations.

In fact - that call indicates to me 1 of 2 possibilities - there was no emergency or they were hiding something.
rcair1
 
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neutrino
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 4:54 pm

Quoting doug_Or (Reply 122):
The cabin of the aircraft starts out at the same pressure altitude as the airplane when on the ground (in this case sea level).

Just to be a little pedantic, KLIA is 21m or 70ft above sea level.;
Potestatem obscuri lateris nescitis
 
747megatop
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 4:55 pm

Quoting davidzill (Reply 120):
My original theory from day one is panning out. I think it is reasonable to believe that the aircraft experienced a fire, either a cargo-induced or an electrical fire

An uncontained inflight fire would have brought down the aircraft quickly i guess judging by all past experiences of in flight fire. So this theory doesn't hold. Moreover, whatever fire supposedly incapacitaded the crew somehow kept the stellite pings going for 7 hours? Something hard to believe and as unlikely as a comet striking the aircraft.

The other theory is an incident like the Helios crash. But, if that was the case then why the deliberate preplanned turns? Why not continue flying North East on original course land end up crashing off the coast of Japan or something? This theory does not hold as well unless of course one passenger or non flying crew survived like the Helios incident and was playing with the controls figuring out how to land the plane (wouldn't that person be clever enough to send out an alarm via the cockpit communications or some other means though? Moroever if that survivor was skilled enough to navigate through waypoints deliberately then wouldn't that survivor have been skilled enough to attempt a landing somewhere?).

Flight controls incapacitated due to temporary fire or major structural damage...well then how could those deliberate turns be performed? Moreover the pilots would have attempted an emergency landing with whatever little controls they were left with and probably would have attempted a water landing closer to shore with the hopes of being found quickly.


Deliberate act seems to be the most likely explanation. What exactly was the deliberate act or who was involved is probably anybody's guess.
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 4:56 pm

Quoting davidzill (Reply 120):
My original theory from day one is panning out.

Really? It doesn't seem there is any evidence that this aircraft had a fire as you explain it. The behavior of the aircraft for the last 6+ hours of its flight is inconsistent with a fire scenario.
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 4:56 pm

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 64):
There is evidence of a partial handshake between the aircraft and ground station at 0019 UTC. At this time this transmission is not understood and is subject to further ongoing work.

Fascinating description of the Inmarsat calculus, thanks for posting.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 97):
You do realize that everything Malaysian has been doing with the families from almost the third day has been at the direction and guidance of some of the best US and UK airline disaster assistance team leaders. Including former AA, BA, DL, CO and UA program managers.

Here is where I have some issues, with company management, but they are not directed to MAS in so far as affixing or apportioning blame. Rather, from a crisis management stand-point I believe the CEO, and then very shortly thereafter the MAS Board, should have had a plan prior to this event that they implemented, and that invariably utilized a DAT or/and a crisis mgt. firm to handle the public relations side of this event. I am not speaking about the handling of the facts as they became known, just the responsibilities of senior management of a global corporation and how it presents its management of a crisis. All airlines have an Emergency Operations Plan, that lists first the response stature in the event of a lost aircraft. Assisting families is a large component of this plan, but so is the ongoing safety and operations of the business, and the internal messaging to employees and family of employees.

MAS has more than 390,000 km of routes, extending from Los Angeles west to London in 47 or so destinations. They had RM 13,756,411,000 in 2012 revenue ($4.3 billion if my ringgit / dollars conversion is close) but have experienced multiple episodes of rather significant net losses due to, among other things, poor fuel price management. All said, this kind of an event for a major global airline with weak financials should have alerted senior management - in my opinion before the plane theoretically ran out of fuel - to handle this with the urgency of a pilot in charge of an aircraft in trouble...life or death. I have not read the name of an outside firm assisting MAS with their messaging yet, but I have to imagine that many have offered their services. From my perspective only, I have seen confusion, no use of Mandarin and or English translators, lack of keeping family as-informed or more-informed than the public, and a smidge of defensiveness. Just my opinion.

And notwithstanding an article in the Sydney Morning Herald on the 18th Malaysia Airlines' brand undamaged...for now, the financial impact might not be well known until the end of the next quarter in June. If I were in charge of just the internal management of the company I would be very concerned that this could force the company into bankruptcy if not handled properly. Again, not apportioning blame, just talking management of a business and a crisis.

~ Paul

[Edited 2014-03-25 09:59:05]

[Edited 2014-03-25 10:02:13]

[Edited 2014-03-25 10:04:41]
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 5:02 pm

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 124):
The. BBC is reporting today that an attempted "partial handshake" was attempted with a ground station at 8:19.

It was briefly mentioned somewhere up-thread.

As the handshakes occur on an hourly basis, this additional unexpected transmission may have been the result of fuel starvation and momentary fluctuations in the electric system - perhaps resetting SATCOM with subsequent handshake attempt before things went completely dark. Such is my armchair assumption, anyway.
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 5:06 pm

Well IMO the unthinkable did happen. I am sure that once the black box is found - which it will be - we will be stunned with the remoteness of the scenario that happened. One reason why we are all considering a hijack is that it seems so unbelievable that something like this could have happened on a clear night! The same was true for Chernobyl. If you asked any engineer a few hours before the event, they would have laughed in your face.
The answer will definitely be a complex situation with numerous failures on every level - which will have been just enough to cause this disaster.
Had it been suicide the pilot would have gone for Petronas righ off the getgo!!!
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 5:07 pm

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 16):
I find it shocking that they won't release the cargo manifest!

So how long did it take for the AF447 cargo manifest to be OFFICIALLY published (I don't consider the NYT or WSJ to be official). How long did it take for the TWA800 cargo manifest to be published?

Quoting na (Reply 41):
I read they haven´t questioned her until sunday. Which I find very odd in the light of possible scenarios. Respect for relatives seems to be regarded higher in Malaysia than thorough investigation. A potentially dangerous sequence of priority.

How would that be dangerous???? It seems to me that priority number one right now is to find the plane. Do you honestly expect that they will have information that will allow the search team to reduce the search area by even one whole millimeter??

Quoting scbriml (Reply 71):
Quoting checksixx (Reply 47):We have no idea if terrorism was or was not involved.Correct, and in terms of finding the plane, doesn't matter at this point.

        
It baffles me that even most of the folks on this site (let alone the nonos calling themselves journalists) don't seem to get the priorities properly sequenced.
First priority is to find the plane. All actions and evidence that must be investigated (and there is a lot to check and double check, find the context etc) should be focused on just this. They should not waste resources trying to answer questions that will not help find the plane at this point.
Once the crash site has been found, recovery can start (with top priority to Black Boxes and engines). Only then the why becomes the focuss of importance.

Quoting COOEE (Reply 70):
Retrieving the black box after such a long flight would only reveal the last 120 minutes of voice. Would there be any other recorded date in the box for flight data going back to those earlier hors out of KL

The black boxes are more than just that.
There is the Cockpit Voice Recorder [CVR], which would hold information for the last 120 powered minutes.
There is the Digital Flight Data Recorder [DVDR], which should hold over 24 hours of data.
There is also a sort of Maintenance Data Recorder, which captures and stores most of the DVDR data, but is much more easily accessible and can easily hold weeks of data. Not so crash resistant off course, but there have been plenty of crashes where good data could be retrieved. .
And then there are an increasing amount of various electronic boxes, who all have their own set of memories, which may still be storing retrievable data that could tell the investigators their own story.

Rgds,
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 5:09 pm

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 124):
The. BBC is reporting today that an attempted "partial handshake" was attempted with a ground station at 8:19. ACARS via vhf maybe as it crashed?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26503141

If the southern track is true, only possibility is a VHF station on Cocos (Keeling) Islands. Not sure if there is one there. But if a VHF station had a handshake that will narrow down search area quite a bit.
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 5:12 pm

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 132):
If the southern track is true, only possibility is a VHF station on Cocos (Keeling) Islands. Not sure if there is one there. But if a VHF station had a handshake that will narrow down search area quite a bit.

They mean a satellite ground station. Everything related to the pings and handshakes is based on Inmarsat SATCOM communications.
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 5:14 pm

Quoting GZed (Reply 81):
Referring to the recently published "MH370 measured data against predicted tracks" graphic above, can I ask our SATCOM and radar experts on the forum to comment on these anomalies seen on the blue line?

1. Between 18:25 - 18:30 UTC the measured line shows 3 pings in quick succession. What do we make of that?

Those three are probably the handshakes caused by the sending of ACARS messages on engine start, take-off and reaching cruising speed. The normal chatter we are aware of.

Quoting GZed (Reply 81):
2. The 5th ping at 18:25 UTC shows a significant deviation away from the predicted result. Does it indicate a more Easterly or Westerly position, or something else?

Since the doppler effect comes from relative motion of aircraft to satellite, it could just because of the vector change of the turn being made. The pilot might also have had a tailwind, or pushing a bit faster than the average.

Quoting GZed (Reply 81):
3. The 2nd and 3rd pings deviate away from the predicted results, and yet MH370 was still flying its planned route at this stage. Why would the results be off? Does this possibly suggest that the Inmarsat modem on-board was not performing as expected?

2nd and 3rd pings were in the early phase of the flight, the pilot might have been climbing to cruise altitude faster than the average of the sample planes used to build the model.

Quoting GZed (Reply 81):
4. Quoting from INFORMATION PROVIDED TO MH370 INVESTIGATION BY UK AIR ACCIDENTS INVESTIGATION BRANCH (AAIB) 25/03/14
"There is evidence of a partial handshake between the aircraft and ground station at 0019 UTC. At this time this transmission is not understood and is subject to further ongoing work."

This is only 8 mins after the last successful handshake. This seems strange considering the 5 previous ping gaps were more than and hour. Could this somehow signify that the aircraft was in the water?

That is one possibility. Someone mentioned above it could also be the engine-off message trying to be sent. The partial handshake probably gives the lower time bracket for the actual crash, while the lack of an expected hourly handshake at 01h11 gives the upper time bracket.
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 5:21 pm

Quoting GZed (Reply 81):
Referring to the recently published "MH370 measured data against predicted tracks" graphic above, can I ask our SATCOM and radar experts on the forum to comment on these anomalies seen on the blue line?

1. Between 18:25 - 18:30 UTC the measured line shows 3 pings in quick succession. What do we make of that?

2. The 5th ping at 18:25 UTC shows a significant deviation away from the predicted result. Does it indicate a more Easterly or Westerly position, or something else?

3. The 2nd and 3rd pings deviate away from the predicted results, and yet MH370 was still flying its planned route at this stage. Why would the results be off? Does this possibly suggest that the Inmarsat modem on-board was not performing as expected?

4. Quoting from INFORMATION PROVIDED TO MH370 INVESTIGATION BY UK AIR ACCIDENTS INVESTIGATION BRANCH (AAIB) 25/03/14
"There is evidence of a partial handshake between the aircraft and ground station at 0019 UTC. At this time this transmission is not understood and is subject to further ongoing work."

This is only 8 mins after the last successful handshake. This seems strange considering the 5 previous ping gaps were more than and hour. Could this somehow signify that the aircraft was in the water?

Not a SATCOM nor radar expert, but this is my take:


1) Not sure if that is a “ping” The graph says data, so I’m inclined to believe those 3 data points represent the regular ACARS messages that were actually transmitted.

2) I think that every change of slope in the graph represent a course change (in other words, a relative speed change relative to the satellite). That would cause a frequency shift. The sharper the spike, the more the aircraft changed its course. The higher frequency would indicate a course towards the satellite.

3) I don’t know what the “predicted track” represents, so can’t qualify that any further.

4) Don’t know.
Speculating: I could see that when the system powers down in a unexpected way, that there will be some sort of SATCOM modem to satellite. We don’t know if the partial handshake was initiated by the satellite or the on-board modem. But it may signal some sort of power down or even the crash (-landing) itself. If they can verify and confirm that, that would HUGELY narrow down the search area. From 60 minutes potential flying time at unknown speed, they might reduce that to 9 minutes, or even 0. I’m sure the Inmarsat engineers are working round to clock trying to establish that and set up experiments to replicate such a partial handshake.


Rgds,
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 5:21 pm

I don't know if anybody else saw it over at CNN but they ran a piece by Les Abend a editor at Flying Magazine and a ATP himself. He runs through a likely scenario based on what we know and his own experience as a commercial pilot.

It is a pretty good analysis of what we know now, but I do think he tends to push the inflight fire scenario a bit as opposed to nafarious actions by someone else on board.nhe is an ATP so I suppose a defense of the pilots by him is to expected.
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 5:25 pm

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 132):
If the southern track is true, only possibility is a VHF station on Cocos (Keeling) Islands. Not sure if there is one there. But if a VHF station had a handshake that will narrow down search area quite a bit.

Impossible. Too far for VHF. Would not be something Inmarsat has access to either.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 5:26 pm

Quoting moose135 (Reply 123):
rcair1 has included a link on his profile page to his latest sanity check under the "Homepage" field:

https://www.airliners.net/profile/rcair1

Must be a browser setting or something because when I hit the link in his home page, it takes me to a previous thread and the recap is collapsed among the other posts.

Too lazy to dig through those posts again.  

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 5:28 pm

Quoting L-188 (Reply 136):
I don't know if anybody else saw it over at CNN but they ran a piece by Les Abend a editor at Flying Magazine and a ATP himself. He runs through a likely scenario based on what we know and his own experience as a commercial pilot.

It is a pretty good analysis of what we know now, but I do think he tends to push the inflight fire scenario a bit as opposed to nafarious actions by someone else on board.nhe is an ATP so I suppose a defense of the pilots by him is to expected.

At this point it would be best not to listen to any so-called "experts" on MSM. Sure, he may be an ATP, but that doesn't mean he knows anything about the techniques used here to locate the aircraft, and very unlikely he knows anything about where the actual conduits run through the aircraft to support his fire theory. You could have thousands of hours on the type and not know that.

So far all of these "experts" have done nothing but talk shit. Let's just leave it at that.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 5:31 pm

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 122):
You may be confused: all communications through a satellite are communications to a ground station. Realistically the satellite is just a mirror (well, for 90s comm satellites anyway). They did not directly contact a ground station. That would be physically impossible at that location.

I was thinking that if this went through Satcom that Inmarsat would have found it days ago. Maybe this was a different communication that was just discovered by a different source. It could be partial because it was a weak signal.

Edit: I see now it was seen by Inmarsat.

[Edited 2014-03-25 10:35:50]

[Edited 2014-03-25 10:47:52]
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 5:33 pm

As for people questioning the Inmarsat graph: remember, they don't have any previous data to correlate to the "took off KUL-PEK, diverted, flew over the peninsula". Yes of course the graph at that point will look strange, no one has ever done such a thing before (that they have recorded). If you understand how they did this analysis, it will become clear...

[Edited 2014-03-25 10:35:59]
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 5:35 pm

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 140):
I was thinking that if this went through Satcom that Inmarsat would have found it days ago. Maybe this was a different communication that was just discovered by a different source. It could be partial because it was a weak signal.

Found what days ago? They have done unprecedented analysis on the information they have. It's amazing what they have accomplished.

A different source? I don't discount the possibility that someone else was listening. This doesn't seem to be the case. Space-based assets are... more constrained than you might imagine.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
mandala499
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 5:35 pm

REPLIES FOR PREVIOUS PART (P44)

Quoting ExpatExp (Reply 249):
I was encouraged by an interview with Inmarsat's SVP for External Affairs, which indicated that hourly position updates are possible now for a cost of approximately US$1.00 per hour of flight. Even if he were underestimating by half, on such a large aircraft, that would work out to be roughly less than US$0.01 per person per hour of flight. Given such low costs, I'd imagine that we'll see a lot of talk in the coming weeks and months about mandating this kind of reporting.

That was what I was told 4 years ago by Inmarsat's people... $1 per flight hour is airtime costs only, and is position update every 10mins I think.

He wouldn't reveal that now would he... Then the equipment costs and then how much would it cost etc etc. They did not support equipment certification for voluntary flight following and flight tracking services, etc. I find it funny, a few years ago, they were laughing at this idea of making it mandatory, they were focused on the Inmarsat Global Xpress (I-5) but I guess, their loss on the I-4 in maritime to competitors have made them scrape any opportunities they can...

But that's another story...   
Believe me, making it mandatory is going to be a financial bonanza... There's more to it than the $1 an hour.  

Of course, did I forget to mention that it has to be done outside the ACARS system to achieve $1 an hour *gasp!* Now, ARINC and SITA isn't just going to sit and let it happen just like that either.

Quoting p51tang (Reply 258):
So if I enter desired Lat/Lon into FMS, then enter into the Altimeter 45,000ft, and enter 5,000ft as the Vertical Restraint on the waypoint,then enter 1,000ft into the Autopilot Altitude Selector,leave it as is.

Errr... no. Say you want to die at waypoint ABCDE...
Put in ABCDE, put in 1000ft as the ALT constraint. Execute it into the plan, select altitude of 1000ft or lower, then change the barometer setting to anything that would put 1000ft indicated at 0ft in real life. Bingo...
Now don't try that yourself...
----

Now for P45...

Quoting garpd (Reply 57):
It's not about what we want!

If it's about what we want, the plane would magically appear out of nowhere and land in PEK as we speak with the passengers and crew now knowing what exactly had hapened.
But no, it's not about what we want, it's about the data telling us something... which may slap us away from what we want.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 64):
The 450kt (GS I'm assuming) was the closer match.

My rough guessingnomics come up with about 430kts GS.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 66):
Turning off ACARS communications is an obscure setting buried in the FMS menus. It is very unlikely that you would turn it off by accident.

Bingo!

Quoting GZed (Reply 81):
1. Between 18:25 - 18:30 UTC the measured line shows 3 pings in quick succession. What do we make of that?

Believe it or not, that matches the estimates 430-450kts GS following the radar plot and that makes it at... *hang on let me look at my notes), between NILAM and IGOGU. The lowest doppler shift ping at about 1940UTC matches the points between TOPIN and SELSU... and from there it consistently moved away.

Quoting GZed (Reply 81):
2. The 5th ping at 18:25 UTC shows a significant deviation away from the predicted result. Does it indicate a more Easterly or Westerly position, or something else?

It merely means that the doppler shift was bigger... ie: More towards or more away, but not more abeam. The "possible turn" between NILAM and IGOGU would create the biggest doppler shift in the ping of the entire flight (or 2nd, the biggest being the initial turnback after IGARI).

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 86):
Re 4: Could mean a power failure to the SATCOM modem, as generators failed and systems shut down due to fuel starvation. They have not released the meaning of the partial handshake and I don't think they quite understand it themselves yet. No doubt they will attempt to replicate the conditions that would cause it.

Yes, the SATCOM ping means:
Ground Station: "you there? If not, I'm going to close this session and give this frequency to someone else"
Aircraft Station: "Yes, I'm (still here)
So Ground Station keeps the session open.

Now if the following occur:
G: "U there?"
A: No Answer
G: "Bye!" (shuts the session down and gives the frequency to someone else or haven't given it to someone else)
Then if A wakes up.
A: "Hello?"
G: "Is that you?"
A: "Yes"
G: "OK, let me assign a session for you"
That's a handshake!

If a partial handshake:
A: "I just woke up I dunno how long I've been up... Hello?"
G: "Hello, I haven't closed your session, continue as if nothing happened."

The above is of course, the dumb version of it...
And yes, the unclear handshake makes it likely that it is caused by a power outage.
If the system is configured to take both AC and DC bus, it takes it from the AC Bus, engine failures would mean it'll go on the DC bus. This means it has to blackout during the switch over, causing the "partial handshake"...

If this is so, then 00:19UTC is when the engines failed.

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 110):
Yesterday...
Crossing 12,000ft, ...
At this point ...
The trick is to avoid radar...

This was the initial scenarios. Now that we have some of the primary radar contacts, we have to determine whether it happened that way or was a simple "let's go up and down to fool people" was enough.

---

I'm now beginning to construct what may have happened using the available data. I've been following Tim Farrar's work on the satellite data (or the interpretation of it), and several discussions (intentional and/or unintentional) have resulted in some nice discoveries and refinements of the previous models.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn1/t31.0-8/s720x720/1553483_740971732614509_298214666_o.png
This is the possible tracks based on the pings (claimed to be according to the Malaysian government).
This model assumes the "select a heading and leave it"... However, me being an idiot... decided not to buy that and found that the red line, closely matches my predictions. Seeing this, I just had to refine it.


This assumed the aircraft went VAMPI-MEKAR-NILAM-IGOGU-TOPIN and then simply went south...

The DXB line is the airway from VAMPI to Dubai, in case someone still wants to entertain the "piggyback to wherever" theory, the only candidate for piggybacking is EK343... and the route to DXB shown, was where it flew over... and makes it unlikely even without the Doppler shift satellite data!

As I wrote above, the path was checked and the only thing that may vary is the portion between NILAM and IGOGU and which is the first waypoint it hit on the 92E longitude...

Why do I work with waypoints? Simple... it's how pilots think when they're lazy but don't want to get lost the wrong way... Waypoints...

Then came the explanation by Tim that the tracks were likely to be affected by magnetic declination/variation... plus the Red vs Yellow Track again, and then doppler chart...
Decided to refine it...

The point that was raised was, if it hits the last waypoint in the FMC legs page, what happens then? (or when it hits a discontinuity)... I'm told (and I haven't checked the manuals) it'll follow the same magnetic heading when it was about to hit the last waypoint.

Seeing the magnetic declination chart, got me thinking. And I think it explains the complexity of the search with little data.

I asked myself, "OK, what would be the last point I'd use?" I picked KETIV, the southernmost waypoint on the Jakarta-Colombo FIR border. So basically follow 182° Magnetic from KETIV to wherever. What happens to the line? It shifts 130NM eastwards...

No wonder this search is hard... And we haven't talked about the winds too!


This shows the predicted track without the magnetic variation, but then the point to the east of it is where it would be with the variation.

And this is the prediction on SkyVector: http://bit.ly/1dsNWBB

This is the initial parts for those wondering where the aircraft went:
http://i59.tinypic.com/vz7wnr.jpg

*The comments above regarding "the timing matches" is not based on departure time, but where it was seen where on the radar and FR24 information. It's not exact, but you know what I mean !  

Bear in mind the question is where exactly did it go after MEKAR... this only reflects where roughly it went, which is not too far from the Doppler data.

---
Note: the above is NOT guaranteed to be correct!

OK Rcair1 It's over back to you now!  duck 

[Edited 2014-03-25 10:37:09]
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 5:40 pm

Some perspective:



Source: https://twitter.com/HowardSlutsken/status/448507904773996544/photo/1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 5:42 pm

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 143):
Yes,

I think this is the second time in a few days you have agreed with me. I think that makes us friends.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 5:43 pm

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 138):
Must be a browser setting or something because when I hit the link in his home page, it takes me to a previous thread and the recap is collapsed among the other posts.

Sorry I wasn't clear - it isn't a separate page, it links to the latest sanity check he has posted in the threads. I believe when he posts a new one, he will update the link to point to the new post.
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 5:43 pm

Quoting BruceSmith (Reply 134):
Someone mentioned above it could also be the engine-off message trying to be sent. The partial handshake probably gives the lower time bracket for the actual crash, while the lack of an expected hourly handshake at 01h11 gives the upper time bracket.

The ACARS communications was supposedly turned off between 1:07 am and 1:37 am, so the last partial handshake really can't be the engine health report (unless someone turned on ACARS near the end of the flight).

Quoting flood (Reply 129):
As the handshakes occur on an hourly basis, this additional unexpected transmission may have been the result of fuel starvation and momentary fluctuations in the electric system - perhaps resetting SATCOM with subsequent handshake attempt before things went completely dark. Such is my armchair assumption, anyway.

Yes, it very well might be related to either fuel starvation or the actual crash/ditching causing the electrical bus to reset and provide electricity for a short period.
 
nupogodi
Posts: 933
Joined: Mon Mar 10, 2014 10:58 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 5:45 pm

Quoting N328KF (Reply 144):
Some perspective:

Having driven across those areas, I'll tell you that you barely want to be conscious let alone looking for things there.

Joking aside, it looks worse on the map than it really is. From a high vantage point like an aircraft you can cover quite a lot of ground. It is only if the visual search turns up nothing and the only choice is slow sonar scans, well... that may take many, many, many years.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
checksixx
Posts: 1224
Joined: Wed Mar 09, 2005 11:39 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45

Tue Mar 25, 2014 5:48 pm

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 49):
Quoting checksixx (Reply 47):
We DO NOT know the aircraft crashed anywhere. There is no evidence of that yet. The Inmarsat data everyone is talking about has not been shared or released.

We do. It has.

The aircraft crashed into the ocean. There is nowhere for it to have landed. Even a perfect ditching would mean everyone has perished by this point.

My God...care to share the data and imagery you have to verify this? As far as I know...NOTHING...absolutely NOTHING...has been provided to verify this. Also, how many pieces of the aircraft/bodies/etc...have been recovered...since you know, you apparently have knowledge of fact. Also, what was the exact location of this evidence found??

Quoting David L (Reply 54):
Quoting checksixx (Reply 47):
This is what was released: ""We have to assume beyond any reasonable doubt that MH370 has been lost and that none of those on board survived," Malaysian Airlines told family members of the missing passengers.

But's not all that was released. The Inmarsat data points to an area in the southern Indian Ocean beyond the reach of land with the remaining fuel.

Yet another member that has seen this elusive data and plots!!! Do share!!! Location????

Quoting Mir (Reply 56):
Hypoxia does not rapidly set in, unless it's an explosive decompression, which you know by other signs so that you can get your mask on.

LoL...above 25,000 feet, I'd say it can most definitely rapidly set in...keep in mind there is alive/alert/capable...alive/capable....alive/confused....alive/not doing much of anything.....and then death.....above that altitude. 2 minutes would be a VERY long time above that altitude (lol)....after that....well....

Quoting scbriml (Reply 71):
The Inmarsat data has been analysed and peer-reviewed by experts. It is clear, BEYOND REASONABLE DOUBT, that MH370 took the southern track and ran out of fuel thousands of miles from any possible landing place.

It most certainly has NOT! In fact many 'experts' are wondering why they have not been provided the data at all....let alone tons of information from the airline.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 71):
Quoting checksixx (Reply 47):
We have no idea if terrorism was or was not involved.

Correct, and in terms of finding the plane, doesn't matter at this point.

Never said it did bucko...

Quoting scbriml (Reply 71):
Quoting checksixx (Reply 47):
We have no evidence of any kind regarding the aircraft or its passengers directly.

We do. It's the Inmarsat data and the fact that every country along the northern track said they had not detected an unidentified plane flying over their territory.

Wrong, we don't. We have not seen one shred of that data and we have no pieces, parts, or anything else of the aircraft otherwise. Clearly, investigations is not your bread and butter..

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 93):
Maybe. But as we know, ACARS was off.

I'm sorry...we know it was off? Or that it was not transmitting? Big difference between something being 'off' and something that has stopped working. Where did we confirmation that it was in fact switched off?

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