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KarelXWB
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 10:38 am

According to the press conference, some of the objects appear to be bright, possibly indicating solid materials.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
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AlexA340B777
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 10:55 am

Was there any word in the news conference about the object found in Maldives? Any reporter asking about it?

Alex
6 continents, 85 countries, 744 flights, 90 airlines, 37 aircraft types
 
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EVAAIRBR076
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 10:56 am

Quoting boacvc10 (Reply 49):

Could be floating trash why not? There is floating trash like plastic bottles etc in the ocean that has the size of half of Europe. I wouldn't be surprised again if it is not related to MH370, like all those times before when they said they might spotted debris.
 
theaviator380
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 10:57 am

Quoting AlexA340B777 (Reply 51):

Erm..What object? didn't see any news of that.
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 10:59 am

Quoting EVAAIRBR076 (Reply 52):
Could be floating trash why not?

Yes it could be trash. Those ships have to locate and investigate the debris first.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
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AlexA340B777
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:01 am

Quoting theaviator380 (Reply 53):

see post number 2 of this thread... or here:

http://www.haveeru.com.mv/news/54153



some here saying it is looking very similar to an aircraft engine fire supression system.

I am just wondering if that finding is somehow being unnoticed in the ongoing investigation.


Alex


edit: typo

[Edited 2014-03-26 04:03:11]
6 continents, 85 countries, 744 flights, 90 airlines, 37 aircraft types
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:02 am

Quoting theaviator380 (Reply 53):
Quoting AlexA340B777 (Reply 51):

Erm..What object? didn't see any news of that.

See MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46 (by SA7700 Mar 25 2014 in Civil Aviation)
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
liquidair
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:05 am

Quoting theaviator380 (Reply 53):

ah, come on dude..... There's only been 50 replies in this thread, it's not THAT much to read, lol!

head to the first ten posts.

Quoting AlexA340B777 (Reply 51):

i didn't hear anything, no. Not even in the Q&A.

interestingly enough though, the acting minister chose the words "hope against hope" if the debris is MH370.

i wonder - and he was asked - are they still thinking there could be survivors? His answer was vague- saying he too was a father, brother and understands what the families are going through.

this is a day and a half later after the PM said there was no chance of survivors.

This duality in expression troubles me.
trying to stop my gaseous viscosity go liquid
 
LTC8K6
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:05 am

Quoting Apprentice (Reply 39):
1. I don't think this bottle was INSTALLED on MH flight, the bottle still have the protections in places: 2 freon outputs port (red caps), the plugs are capped (black caps), and location for pressure indicating transmitter and low pressure warning switch also caped without switchs installed (blue caps). In that way bottle are delivery to install or back to a shop, placed in a protected wood container. On the other way, it looks that percursion cartridges are installed, and that is not comom.

I can't tell if there are any caps on it in the picture of it on the beach...

I can see them in the example pic certainly, but not on the actual pic.
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:06 am

Earlier reports suggest this is a garbage collection area, so until they find first piece from MH370 we have to keep our fingers crossed.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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EVAAIRBR076
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:08 am

And dont forget there is still a lot of trash from fukushima japan, like ships, parts of houses and a lot of other stuff. 23 meters in lenght and then not be able to identify it with satellites? And they can see me having a sunbath in my back garden. And 23 meters in length? As far as i can remember i dont know crashes, except the ethiopian one that was hijacked and landed in the ocean, that gave such large pieces of debris.

[Edited 2014-03-26 04:09:37]
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:08 am

Both HMAS Success and Xue Long are now in the search area, they will try to locate the debris spotted on satellite.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
flood
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:12 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 43):
The Malaysian government just released another picture:

It looks a lot more 'promising' than previous debris sightings... another image:


via http://twitter.com/bevanshields85/status/448773191146561536/photo/1
 
Pihero
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:14 am

I'd like to remind all of us on this forum that the only serious clue we have as to the whereabouts of Flight 370 is the
NTSB / INMARSAT sutdy, both on the *pings*'exploitation and refinements using Doppler shifts.
That clue has been deemed accurate / dependable / reasonable ... enough to cause the search to have started in the southern part of the Indian Ocean.
I gave in an earlier post a simplistic, kitchen-table explanation on how the reasoning was, of course using computers and algorythm that would solve the difficulties of wind effect and - I forgot to mention it, my apologies - the effect of a rapid magnetic variation the further south we project or re-constructed route.
This is my pencil-divider-paper strip solution :



I mentioned in that post that a study of the winds will amount to solving a vector field.
As it happens, I came across Tim Vasquez' weather maps of the area :

http://i82.photobucket.com/albums/j261/Pihero/00HR250MBHGTWINDgfsfaxanl0020140308.gif

Tim is a meteorologist and his work on AF 447 helped debunk quite a lot of theories.
Meteorology is about, by pure coincidence, also about studying / forecasting wind fields.
This result is but one possible trajectory, based on a constant magnetic heading, canstant CAS and a constant altitude.
The resulting trajectory is an illustration of what the NTSB people could have arrived at :

http://i82.photobucket.com/albums/j261/Pihero/io-route-sum.gif

He said :" we assume the aircraft flew westward and toward the Strait of Malacca as some of the Malaysian investigative reports indicate, and bypassed the 10°N waypoint shown in the image above, and that after some sort of altercation or change in plans on board a heading of 210° was selected, which would be 210°M, with heading reference in MAG ( my edit) as would be expected. This would then be engaged by putting the autopilot in heading mode in an attempt to fly out into the remote Indian Ocean. The first point in this set that would be crossed was at 5°00'N 95°22'E. Here we assume FL390 with airspeed of M.82 (TAS=468 kt).

Comment : FL 390 is a 200 hPa reference for weather charts. the difference with FL 350 / M.82, as we are above the tropopause would be minimal( constant OAT).

The above seem to match quite a few aspects of the theory : constant magnetic heading and constant speed at a constant altitude.
The theory of a great circle route is well disproved... and may I remind us that a GC route will only happen with an origin point and an arrival point, both inserted in an FMS working in LNAV mode ?
Tim's site is Here

You could also take a serious look at this page dealing with a possible contrail, and Tim's study of it... Funny enough, this also comes close to the NTSB derived-at area.

http://i82.photobucket.com/albums/j261/Pihero/io-sar.jpg

This is the text of that study :

Possible contrail study by Tim Vasquez

[Edited 2014-03-26 04:21:49]

[Edited 2014-03-26 04:24:44]

[Edited 2014-03-26 04:26:36]
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flyingturtle
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:15 am

Quoting flood (Reply 62):
It looks a lot more 'promising' than previous debris sightings... another image:

I'll pray and light a candle. Lots of people need answers.


David
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
David L
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:15 am

Quoting liquidair (Reply 57):
This duality in expression troubles me.

It seems quite understandable to me. The head says the evidence has the aircraft coming down out reach of safety while the heart clings on to the thin hope of survivors. It's not an easy position to be in.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 63):

Thanks for that. It's not that I don't want to discuss your work on this, it's that it's outside the bounds of my knowledge. Please carry on with it.  Smile

[Edited 2014-03-26 04:27:57]
 
boacvc10
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:20 am

Quoting EVAAIRBR076 (Reply 60):
And they can see me having a sunbath in my back garden

The Google maps and other vendor pics of you in your back garden doing .... are taken from overflying aircraft, not from space, on an orbiting platform.
Up, up and Away!
 
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EVAAIRBR076
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:22 am

Quoting boacvc10 (Reply 66):

ok i didnt knew that, thanks for clearing that up  
 
c680
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:24 am

Given the following assumptions:

1) The relatively large search area
2) Lack of specific starting point for the search - no known center point to start a search
3) Strong currents in the area - debris will quickly drift away from the incident site
4) Typically rough seas in the search area - will make any ship towed undersea search more difficult
5) The amount of time that has past - with each passing day, location beacon batteries are further depleted

I know this is a horrible thought, but...

What are the ODDS that MH370 is NEVER found?
My happy place is FL470 - what's yours?
 
davs5032
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:25 am

Quoting David L (Reply 65):
It seems quite understandable to me. The head says the evidence has the aircraft coming down out reach of safety while the heart clings on to the thin hope of survivors. It's not an easy position to be in.

Agreed. It's not easy trying to meet the realistic outcome theories of the media and public at this point while still respecting the sensitivities of still grieving family members. Really no way to please everyone.
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:35 am

Quoting c680 (Reply 68):
What are the ODDS that MH370 is NEVER found?

If you ask me for my completely uneducated guess, the chance is 95% that MH370 will be found. You can still use side-scan sonar, even years after the crash.


And Pihero - I admire your drawing! 


David
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
Pihero
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:42 am

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 70):

And Pihero - I admire your drawing!

You flatterer you !   
Actually, That's way beyond my computer skills.
Contrail designer
 
c680
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:43 am

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 70):
If you ask me for my completely uneducated guess, the chance is 95% that MH370 will be found. You can still use side-scan sonar, even years after the crash.

And who pays for years of searching? Australia? Boeing? Malaysia? China?

Something tells me the trial lawyers will not be contributing to that fund!   
My happy place is FL470 - what's yours?
 
liquidair
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:46 am

Quoting David L (Reply 65):
Quoting davs5032 (Reply 69):
2010

meh. Maybe not start making a definitive statement before would have been the better option.

i find the acting minister's choice of words far more sensitive and wise as opposed to the absolute terminology used by the PM.

this is irregardless of pings, algorithm and politics, its simple humanity.
trying to stop my gaseous viscosity go liquid
 
David L
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:53 am

Quoting liquidair (Reply 73):
meh. Maybe not start making a definitive statement before would have been the better option.

And that would be construed by many here and in the press as "hiding information". As someone else said, damned if you do, damned if you don't.
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:58 am

Quoting c680 (Reply 72):

And who pays for years of searching? Australia? Boeing? Malaysia? China?

Even if the official search is called off, it doesn't prevent privateers from trying to find it.
Even if they lack the resources of the current search operations who knows what technology that
will be available in 10-20 years and onwards from now. Perhaps "tomorrow's" technology will
be advanced enough to search large areas underwater in a good way.

Maybe some sort of advanced underwater equivalent of a UAV
Like a thunderbolt of lightning the Dragon roars across the sky. Il Drago Ruggente
 
art
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:58 am

Quoting c680 (Reply 72):
And who pays for years of searching? Australia? Boeing? Malaysia? China?

I read (on a.net, I think) that the cost of the AF447 operation was US$140 million, shared between airline, aircraft manufacturer and one other party (accident investigation authority?)
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 12:02 pm

Australian authorities said on Wednesday that three more objects had been spotted by aircraft searching for a Malaysian jet missing in the southern Indian Ocean.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...es-australia-idUSBREA2P0P420140326
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
Trin
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 12:05 pm

Quoting boacvc10 (Reply 45):
Wow, look at the scale of that picture .... 76000 meters across. Any object that shows up in that frame, at that scale from a Low Earth Orbiting sensor, is significant. .... If it is not an aircraft debris field, could there really be any other explanation?

I don't think there could be, no. To see THAT sort of debris configuration THAT far out at sea? That's MH370.  
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 12:09 pm

Quoting c680 (Reply 72):
And who pays for years of searching? Australia? Boeing? Malaysia? China?

I thought MH insurance companies pay for most of it and rest by Malaysian Government. Once debris field is located a contract will be awarded to defense contractors/oil companies for recovery. Boeing's insurance company pays only if there is a claim against company.
All posts are just opinions.
 
YoungMans
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 12:14 pm

"...Trust me, I work for the Government..!"

That seems to be the implied message from the talking heads on the TV news, especially from the politicians.

Has anyone seen any clear pictures of any of the floating debris, other than grainy satellite pictures?

We are told about wooden pallets, big objects more than 20 m long and whatever else; but as yet there is not a single high-quality photo that has been released to the public. Why?

With aircraft having taken footage of at least some of the debris, why don't we get to see at least a few photos from that?
 
JimJupiter
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 12:18 pm

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 80):
why don't we get to see at least a few photos from that?

We do get to see photos. If we don't get to see more or better ones, it's maybe because keeping us here up to date is not their first concern? Just an idea.
One is born, one runs up bills, one dies.
 
Trin
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 12:19 pm

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 80):
With aircraft having taken footage of at least some of the debris, why don't we get to see at least a few photos from that?

Because, quite simply, we don't matter and we are not entitled to it.

Those concerned with SAR efforts and the investigative bodies DO 'get to see' them. As nothing more than members of the concerned online community - we don't.
 
liquidair
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 12:19 pm

Quoting David L (Reply 74):

on this occasion i disagree. I think it would have been better for the PM to confirm only that Inmarsat had narrowed the path down to the southern corridor and give an approximate position, calculated fuel load at last ping, and flight time to nearest land.

how on earth could that be construed as hiding something?
trying to stop my gaseous viscosity go liquid
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 12:19 pm

Quoting c680 (Reply 68):
What are the ODDS that MH370 is NEVER found?

Not finding an 777 sized airplane is unacceptable and they will have to do whatever it takes to find it.

Quoting c680 (Reply 72):
And who pays for years of searching? Australia? Boeing? Malaysia? China?

Airbus payed a lot of money for the AF447 search. As long as there are enough parties out there who want to find it, they will share those costs.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 12:24 pm

Quoting David L (Reply 65):
It seems quite understandable to me. The head says the evidence has the aircraft coming down out reach of safety while the heart clings on to the thin hope of survivors.

There's a good neuroscience article here on investigations / desire for closure / tunnel vision: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe...-breeds-certainty/article17666325/
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
LH526
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 12:27 pm

Did the officials cross check the satellite photos with the currents (Indian ocean gyre) and the garbage patches within and so made sure it's not just ocean garbage floating around?
Trittst im Morgenrot daher, seh ich dich im Strahlenmeer ...
 
chrisrad
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 12:29 pm

Sorry if this has been discussed already, but I can't see anything about it in the current thread

http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel...quawk/story-fnizu68q-1226865138407

OFFICIALS have revealed missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 gave off an unexplained signal minutes after the plane beamed its last scheduled “ping” to satellites.
The Boeing 777 broadcast a series of hourly “hello signals” to satellites for seven hours after it vanished from the radar. The pings were used by British satellite company Inmarsat to triangulate the current search area.
But last night Malaysian officials said the plane also beamed an unusual “partial” ping just eight minutes after what was thought to be its final transmission.
“There is evidence of a partial ‘handshake’ (ping) between the aircraft and ground station at 00:19 GMT,” said acting transport minister Hishammuddin Hussein.
“This transmission is not understood and is subject to further ongoing work”
Thomas Withington, a defence electronics analyst, told the UK’s Telegraph newspaper: “It sounds like the aircraft began to squawk a message and for some reason this was curtailed.”
“It could be because the aircraft was at a catastrophic phase of flight — that something was causing it to crash — or there could be some atmospheric disturbance.”
Welcome aboard Malaysia Airlines! Winner of Best Cabin Staff 2001,2002,2003,2004,2007,2009,2012
 
art
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 12:31 pm

Quoting Trin (Reply 78):
Quoting boacvc10 (Reply 45): .... If it is not an aircraft debris field, could there really be any other explanation?I don't think there could be, no. To see THAT sort of debris configuration THAT far out at sea? That's MH370.

Your reasoning is persuasive. I'm inclined to agree. And if the debris field is large, searching ships should be able to find it (whereas so far aircraft have mostly not been able to spot individual anomalies shown on satellite images).

By the way, just read on a French site that the family of an American on board are starting legal action against the carrier and the manufacturer.

In French (see last paragraph):

http://www.air-journal.fr/2014-03-26...un-satellite-francais-5102631.html

[Edited 2014-03-26 05:43:12]
 
rc135x
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 12:38 pm

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 26):
On a 737, they are in the wheel well. On a 777, I don't know.

According to an FAA technical manual the two engine fire extinguisher bottles are located together some 80 feet from the engines. I would presume that places them somewhere in the fuselage.
KC-135A, A(RT), D, E, E(RT), Q, R, EC-135A, C, G, L, RC-135S, U, V, W, X, TC-135S, W
 
AirKorea
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 12:39 pm

Interesting articale. It is consistent with my speculation about the cause of MH 370 crash.

Flight MH370: Pilot in wrong state of mind to fly - friend
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/air-accide...cle.cfm?c_id=665&objectid=11226334
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 12:57 pm

Quoting AirKorea (Reply 90):
Interesting articale.

There's something there that doesn't make sense. The FO had 103 hours on type, but the article (and others) keep saying that this was his first flight without a check pilot. As far as I know, a pilot transitioning to a new type would not have 103 hours flight time with a check pilot - if he was that bad, it would be sim time. I assume what they're misreporting is that it was his first time in a 2 person flight crew, and that his previous time was as relief in a 3 person crew.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
shortstack81
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 1:06 pm

Quoting Trin (Reply 78):
I don't think there could be, no. To see THAT sort of debris configuration THAT far out at sea? That's MH370.

Yes, it could be it, but there are locations in the oceans where flotsum just collects. I'm not sure if all of them are as well known as the ones in the Pacific and Atlantic. Crossing my fingers and hoping we soon get some answers, but I think it's dark there now.
 
theaviator380
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 1:08 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 77):

I think Aus authorities should find debri first, pull it up from ocean and then declare they have found debris from MH370.
 
lnglive1011yyz
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 1:09 pm

Quoting phantomx18 (Reply 2):
Posting again from previous thread lock:

Object washed ashore in the Maldives - Baarah Beach(not sure about this news source, never heard of them before):

http://www.haveeru.com.mv/news/54153

. .thought to be bomb or mine, but sure looks like this:

http://quick.aero/sterling/blog/how-...658848.pagespeed.ic.Fm-5teWM9D.jpg

A a fire suppression bottle. . . similar to what would be found on the missing MH370

This post needs to be 'upvoted' (to take from another website I visit), for visibility...

Can ANYONE with aircraft maintenance background confirm whether or not this item looks similar to an aircraft fire suppression bottle? The searches I've done online are eerily similar to this object.

If this was found in Maldives, should that nor warrant at least a look from the investigators!?

1011yyz
Pack your bags, we're going on a sympathy trip!
 
Backseater
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 1:16 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 63):
This result is but one possible trajectory, based on a constant magnetic heading, canstant CAS and a constant altitude.

Please allow me to ask why was the aircraft using a "constant magnetic heading" ?
Arre you saying that the best track that matches the RTD data to within x nm is based on that assumption?

I would have thought that an FMS uses true heading internally, computed from the great circle that passes through the starting and ending coordinates. If someone wanted to use a magnetic heading, I assume the FMS would convert back and forth using an up-to-date table of magnetic declinations. But doesn't that method of flying over long distances mean that you cannot know where you will end up?

Do pilots use that? Just curious.
 
theaviator380
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 1:17 pm

Quoting lnglive1011yyz (Reply 94):

That thing which has been washed to the beach looks little smaller than fire suppression ball/bottle. Also it's almost certain what approximate area aircraft ditched in the ocean and this place near Maldives is atleast 3000 miles away for SAR area? is it possible for debris to spread that far in span of 16 days? or it just some junk from some ship or even someone done it for publicity?
 
BruceSmith
Posts: 69
Joined: Mon May 30, 2011 10:35 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 1:20 pm

Quoting lnglive1011yyz (Reply 94):
Quoting phantomx18 (Reply 2):
Posting again from previous thread lock:

Object washed ashore in the Maldives - Baarah Beach(not sure about this news source, never heard of them before):

http://www.haveeru.com.mv/news/54153

. .thought to be bomb or mine, but sure looks like this:

http://quick.aero/sterling/blog/how-...658848.pagespeed.ic.Fm-5teWM9D.jpg

A a fire suppression bottle. . . similar to what would be found on the missing MH370

This post needs to be 'upvoted' (to take from another website I visit), for visibility...

Can ANYONE with aircraft maintenance background confirm whether or not this item looks similar to an aircraft fire suppression bottle? The searches I've done online are eerily similar to this object.

If this was found in Maldives, should that nor warrant at least a look from the investigators!?

1011yyz

It does look similar to a fire suppression bottle, but it also looks similar to a rocket/satellite spherical fuel tank which is normally made of titanium and survives reentry quite often. There have been at least 6 satellites or rocket bodies reentering since December 2013 that had tracks that ended in the Indian ocean.

The article above has a followup link in it now which states the Maldives defence force determined it wasn't a bomb and removed it to a military base for identification.
 
nupogodi
Posts: 933
Joined: Mon Mar 10, 2014 10:58 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 1:22 pm

Quoting lnglive1011yyz (Reply 94):
This post needs to be 'upvoted' (to take from another website I visit), for visibility...

Can ANYONE with aircraft maintenance background confirm whether or not this item looks similar to an aircraft fire suppression bottle? The searches I've done online are eerily similar to this object.

I hope you don't visit threads relating to MH370 on reddit. It is incredibly frustrating to see mountains of misinformation getting upvoted.

Anyhow, someone PPRuNe claims to be mx said that the bottle look too small to be for a 777, and someone else said that the APU bottles are the same size as the engine bottles. It's possible someone faked that picture just to cause a fuss.

[Edited 2014-03-26 06:23:54]
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
rcair1
Posts: 1147
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 8:39 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46

Wed Mar 26, 2014 1:22 pm


Sanity Check - 3/26/2014 - 03:40Z
Re-posting in the new thread since I ended up at the end of the last one.
There is (will be) a link to this post in my profile under "homepage".

Formating notes.
New/changed lines will have this background color. All changes are relative to the previous Sanity Check.
Previous Sanity Check here. NOTE: this link will place the entry at the top of the screen, you will have to expand it.Previous Sanity Check. (by rcair1 Mar 21 2014 in Civil Aviation)
Minor wording/grammar/spelling changes are NOT highlighted.

Introductory comments:
This is the first updated Sanity Check for some days. This simply because there has been no news till the recent announcements from Malaysia and Inmarsat. I was loathe to spend too much time just addressing conspiracy theories for which we have no data.
To be clear - while I believe we know the plane has gone down in the South India Ocean, we have no better idea of why it flew there than we did on March 8.
Therefore the speculation, conspiracy theories, idle chatter, continues and will.
As before, this sanity check will focus on what we know more than what we think.

Changes in this edition.
Discussion and refinement of Inmarsat data.
Various sections simplified and clarified.
Doppler tutorial added.
I've shortened several sections- I have not highlighted those changes. The heading will say something like "Shortened". I did not hightlight them because I'm limited in formating.

First, I'm going to start with a restatement of what we know - right up front.
The aircraft departed KUL normally then secondary radar, voice and ACARS Contact was lost.
The aircraft turned west, then north west and primary radar contact was lost.
The aircraft continued to fly, or operate, for approximately 7 hrs.
We have not found the aircraft or wreckage and have not received any ELT transmissions.
The aircraft is lost (in the sense of crashed) with all souls on board. May they Rest in Peace.
The aircraft flew south into a remote part of the Indian Ocean.
Probable location of aircraft at last 'ping' place it 4-5 hours from major land with 30-45 minutes of fuel.
A final "partial ping" was received 8 minutes after the last one. Unknown reason - investigation underway (potential indication of power failure/flame-out).

Yes - I know:
There are those in this forum who will disagree that we "know" those last 3 items as we have not found debris or wreckage.
When (if) we find that wreckage, some of those will continue to deny the plane few there - they will postulate China or Malaysia or the US or "somebody" place the wreckage there.
I believe the data to be credible and factual if not 'proven'. It is beyond reasonable doubt.
I would be happy to be proven wrong - that the plane landed somewhere safely - and will gladly admit it.

First a synopsis
The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing
The last ACARS transmission was 01:07 local.
Reports that ACARS indicated new way-points were programed into the FMS before have been denied or have credible non-threatening explanations (see Way-points)
The last comms were "All right, good night" transmitted to Malaysia at hand-off to Vietnam control. Vietnam was not contacted. It has been reported it was the First Officer's voice.
NOTE: This sign-off is not atypical or unusual. If anything it tends to argue for normalcy (though deception cannot be excluded).
The transponder stopped transmitting at 1:21 - loss of secondary radar.
The discussion of climbs and descents seems to have changed. This matter is still unclear.
Inmarsat data is consistent with 30K cruise - no indication of fluctuating altitudes during majority of flight.
There are subsequent primary radar returns west over Malacca Strait and then north west. Since it is primarily radar - a reflection - it does NOT identify the a/c, however it has been correlated with SATCOM pings so confidence is high that the returns are from MH370
SATCOM system pings continued for 7+ (last ping at 08:11 local) hrs after LOS (loss of signal)
Using newly developed analysis, the SATCOM data has been used to exclude the so called 'north' corridor. (See Advanced analysis of SATCOM Pings).
This new analysis has allowed us to dramatically reduce the search area. It has also, unfortunately, placed the aircraft in a location where safe landing at fuel exhaustion is not possible.
A last "partial ping" was received 8 minutes after the 8:11 ping. The meaning of this is unknown, but speculation is it may have been an indication of fuel starvation and shutdown.
Searching continues for debris in the South Indian Ocean, but the location, weather and conditions are poor

Time-line
1:07 am - Last ACARS transmission.
1:19 am - Last verbal communication "All right, good night" from the plane; believed to be the co-pilot
1:21 am - Transponder stopped transmitting (turned off or failed)
1:30 am - Civilian (primary) radar lost contact
1:37 am - Expected ACARS transmission; not received
2:15 am - Last military primary radar contact
8:11 am - Last (hourly) satellite handshake
8:19 am (approx) A 'partial ping' was received - potentially and indication of power fluctuations at fuel starvation.

ACARS
ACARS is an automated aircraft communication system that transmits a/c information, including navigation, operations, maintenance, etc to ATC and maintenance facilities.
ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight.
ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.
This last fact (only EHM) is somewhat questions because of 3/18 reports of new way-points being programmed. This would require ADS-C
ACARS communicates via VHF, HF or SATCOM. The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.
ACARS can be instructed not to use SATCOM, HF or VHF from the Cockpit. This would effectively stop ACARS from sending data. Access to the EE bay is not required.
The last ACARS transmission was at 1:07. The next was expected at 1:37 and was not received: This means ACARS communication was disabled between those times. This could be action by the flight-deck crew or system failure.

ACARS data from MH370
The ACARS system sent 2 engine health reports to Rolls Royce, both prior to the LOS event.
The Rolls Royce page indicates that a 'snapshot' of engine data would be sent at: takeoff, climb, cruise and landing. We know 2 ACARS Engine Health reports were received, consistent with the 1st two.
The last engine health report was received at 1:07am. The next was expected at 1:37 am and was not received. This indicates that the transmission of ACARS data was disabled between 1:07 and 1:37, but not when during that period.
The Engine Health report received prior to LOS had 'interesting' altitude data/fluctuations including 40K drop in a minute. That data is suspect.
There seems to be some indication that ADS-C data with changed way-point information was included in the last ACARS report. This has not been confirmed and has, in fact, been denied.
A recent report stated that is was "normal" for MH pilots to turn off ACARS for flights into China. This has not been verified and seems inconsistent with SATCOM coverage.

ADS-C Tutorial.
ADS-C stands for Aircraft Dependent Surveillance - Contract.
The "Dependent" is because it "depends" on the aircraft taking action - as opposed to "independent" like radar..
Contract means there must be a "contract" or "agreement" set up by the controllers an/or crew to send information.
ADS-C is not required to be used.
ADS-C can be programed to report periodically, on demand, on event. It can be initiated by the crew in an emergency.
There have been reports - now denied - that the ship turned before LOS, or that that new way-points were programmed before LOS.
The only way this (later) item would be know is if the ACARS Predicted Route Group was sent. That includes ETA, altitude, lat/long at next way-point and next+1 way-point.
ADS-C is transmitted via ACARS which can use SATCOM, VHF or HF.
ADS-C does not transmit via transponder (thanks for that correction)
A good tutorial on ADS-C is available at http://prezi.com/pcuvxhcklsda/ads-c-overview/

Way-point Entry Data.
I have deleted this section which dealt with reports of turns before LOS and insertion of new way-points before LOS as these reports continue to be postulated and denied.
I will add that information if it becomes factual.

Way-point Tracks.
A series of way-points reported that match the primary radar tracks in/near Malacca Strait.
These way-points line up with the direction indicated by the primary radar returns and Inmarsat data to the north.
While many believe the aircraft was under control - we cannot conclude if these way-point were used, or just coincidentally along the path.
A 777 can be programed to follow a series of way-point automatically - this is normal operating procedure and a 777 pilot would need no extra practice/training to do it. (Relevant to pilot flight simulator ownership)

SATCOM
SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.
SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.
The Inmarsat Senior VP likened the Inmarsat box on MH370 to a 'handset' and the Satellites to the network. ACARS, Texting, etc are all "applications" that run on the 'handset'
The system pings the aircraft roughly hourly.
The SATCOM system on MH370 is a "Classic Aero" set and connects to Inmarsat 3 satellites. In the area covered, the only satellite with coverage is IOR. (Source Inmarsat)
The SATCOM system sends (or responds to) periodic 'pings' to/from the satellites (hourly). These 'pings' are a network communication that says "I am here."
SATCOM pings are not communicating a/c status, they are part of the communications channel. They are akin to registration pings on a cell system.
SATCOM pings provide no aircraft location, heading, speed or altitude information.
NOTE: There are versions of Inmarsat solutions that provide more location information than we have for MH370 (Inmarsat-4).
However, this a/c did not use this technology and the pings are handled over the low bandwidth, non-directional global antenna.
Claiming that it did (have newer versions or use directional antennas) is yet another unsubstantiated theory that would require massive conspiracy at Inmarsat. Why? I don't buy it
I have deleted the rest of this section in light of new Inmarsat analysis (see below)

Advanced analysis of SATCOM Pings
Over the past 24-48 hours we have learned that Inmarsat has developed new analysis techniques to improve their estimation of MH370's likely path. Inmarsat should be applauded for this work.
As I understand from information presented by Inmarsat, the analysis included:
- A component of Time of Flight analysis - how long does it take the signal travel from the satellite to the a/c and back.
- A component of frequency shift analysis (based on the well known Doppler effect - see below).
- Inclusion of variation in position, with time, of the IOR satellite (wobble).
- Specific correlation with other a/c (777 I believe) using the same type of equipment in the same relative routing.
- Specific information about this a/c from previous flights and ground communications to understand the signature of this specific installation.
- Assumptions for various airspeed and altitude (somewhat driven by a/c performance models.)
As a result of this analysis, Inmarsat has been able to eliminate the "north" corridor previously identified.
This graph shows how the correlation between north corridor and the MH370 data is poor, south corridor data and MH370 data is good.
Combining that information with other data - we can conclude with high confidence that MH370 flew south into the Indian Ocean where it crashed due to fuel starvation.
NOTE: I've simplified this dramatically
Other figures of interest.

Doppler Effect - a simple tutorial.
The Doppler effect (named after Austrian physicist Christian Doppler) is something we have probably all experienced.
The most common case we may be familiar with is how a train whistle will decrease in pitch as the train goes by.
It works like this (sound wave based).
-The train whistle we hear is the result of pressure waves in the air causing motion of our ear drums.
-Let's assume that the horn frequency is 200 Hz, the speed of sound is 340m/s and the train is coming at us at 100km/hr (27.7m/s).
-This effectively adds to the speed of sound and decreases the 'effective wavelength' because the source is moving towards us.
-The sound we will hear is about 220Hz - it is higher than the train tone.
-When the train passes it is now moving at 27.7 m/s away from us and the tone drops to about 180Hz.
-This is a big change and we can clearly hear it.
In the case of the Inmarsat satellites, the "ping" is carried on a radio wave operating at, I believe, about 1.6 GHz so the wavelength (use the speed of light, not speed of sound) is about 18.737028625cm
There is a reason I included so many digits
Ignoring satellite motion, if the aircraft was moving directly at the satellite at 450 knots (231.5m/s) - the sensed wavelength is 18.73701415625cm
Ignoring satellite motion, if the aircraft was moving directly way from the satellite at 450 knots (-231.5m/s) - the sensed wavelength is 18.73704309375cm
Now - if I've done my maths correctly (and I would encourage checking here), the percentage change is 0.00015% - on the order of 1 part per million.
And of course, this is the best case - the a/c moving directly toward (including climbing) the satellite and directly away (descending).
In the case of MH370 - the Doppler effect was much smaller because the aircraft is not climbing/descending and is moving at an angle to the satellite.
In addition, this is being measured by a device that is designed not to measure it.
Satellite motion will add/subtract from this as well and was key to the analysis
It should be clear from this that based on this you cannot take a simple single measurement from a single ping and calculate meaningful data.
What Inmarsat did was compare (correlate) data from MH370 with similar data from a/c traveling on similar routes. That correlation matches will with a southern route, not well with a northern route.
Authors note: I hesitated to provide this analysis because 1) it is pretty deep and 2) it will open the door for those who say "No way they can calculate that."
However, I believe it is better to discuss it openly than to 'hide it from the uneducated masses."
Face it - conspiracy theorists will dismiss anything. Those interested in learning and perhaps questioning logically (thus providing better insights/options) will do so. That may lead to better understanding."

Fire Theory (Was Cargo and Lithium Batteries).
I'm leaving this here because it continues to be discussed. However, until (and if) we get further data - this is just one of many speculations.
I would point out that most authorities are pointing at human action versus mechanical failure (of any sort).
One hypothesis that has been presented is that a fire broke out incapacitated the crew/passengers or caused hypoxia that did so.
The hypothesis is:
A fire broke out causing the crew to disable multiple systems (or disabled them itself)
The crew was successful in containing/extinguishing the fire - but then was disable due to smoke and/or hypoxia.
The a/c, either on autopilot or uncontrolled by stable due to advance FBW systems, remained in stable flight till fuel exhaustion.
The turns exhibited could have been a combination of programmed and random course changes.

Hypoxia and Pressurization
There has been lots of speculation about loss of pressurization in the aircraft and what that would do to passengers and crew.
IMPORTANT NOTE: all of this applies to cabin pressure - not the pressure outside.Just climbing to 45K would not exposed the passengers to that altitude - the aircraft would have to be depressurized.
In the case of loss of cabin pressure - O2 mask would deploy automatically.
Cockpit alarms would sound - comparison to Helios is not valid (777 and 737 are very different).
The 777 can be modified for operation at very high altitude airports w/o alarm - however, that just raises the alert altitude, it does not disable it. Further - there is no evidence this 777 has been so modified.
The pilots cannot disable this above 13,500 feet - they can release the masks.
Passengers masks would last 12-20 minutes. Portable crew (FA) bottles ~30minutes. Cockpit crew longer.
Time of useful consciousness (not to loss of consciousness) will range from 1-3 minutes at 30K to 9-15 seconds at 43K. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_of_useful_consciousness)
above 40,000 ft cabin altitude - positive pressure oxygen is required - passenger masks do not do this and would not be effective.
Because of this the a/c must be certified able to descend and pilots demonstrate an emergency descent to ~10,000 ft in 2 minutes.
The actual regulation is that passengers cannot be exposed to a cabin altitude of more than 25K for more than 2 minutes, or more than 40K for any time. (A380 got an exception to this rule.)

Cabin depressurizing by Pilots (shortened)
Pilots can depressurize the a/c by turning pressurization to manual, turning off bleed air and opening outflow valves. (I have no information on how quickly this would lower cabin pressure.
This would not disable either alarms or auto-deploy of passenger oxygen masks.
Let's investigate the sequence required.
1) Pilots (or whomever is in control) switches to manual pressurization, turns off bleed, opens outflow valves.
2) Cabin altitude climbs above 13,500 and passenger masks deploy - there is no way to prevent that. At that point passengers and cabin crew know.
3) Presuming the pilots do not descend - passengers O2 will last 12-20 minutes. After that, depending on the cabin altitude they will loose effective consciousness (not loose consciousness, but effective consciousness).
4) Cabin crew O2 will run out.
5) During this time, the flight crew O2 will operate (and last longer)
6) At some point - depending on cabin altitude - those not on O2 will become disabled or die.
NOTE: Above 40K cabin altitude passenger masks are ineffective - positive pressure O2 is required.
NOTE: The a/c itself is not impacted by depressurizing.

CRV/FDR Data
The CVR (cockpit voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder) do not transmit data in flight.
They do emit sonic pings if immersed. These will last a minimum of 30 days. We can expect sonar is being used to listen for them.
The pinger operates at 37.5KHz 106.5dp re 1μPa. (thanks k83713)
Maximum depth of beacon detection in Normal Conditions: 1-2km
Maximum depth of beacon detection in Good Conditions: 4-5km
Localising a pinger from the surface in shallow water is relatively easy, as described above. In deep water, the detection equipment should be installed on a self-propelled underwater vehicle, presupposing that the position is already known to within the maximum 2-3km detection range.
The CVR reportedly is a 120 minute CVR so it would contain only the last 120 minutes of flight (presuming it did not fail or was turned off prior to that).
I don't have data form the recording time of the FDR, but it is typically much longer.

ELT
The ELT, or emergency locater transmitter is mounted in the rear of the aircraft - difficult to access in flight.
The ELT is battery powered - independent built in power source. It is this source that is suspect in causing the 787 fire at Heathrow.
The ELT will be trigged by G forces in a crash. It will not operate under water.
The ELT can be triggered from the cockpit - it is a hardwired switch not dependent on computer systems.
The ELT transmits on the guard frequency (VHF) and on 406MHz to satellites. If it had been triggered (above water), satellites would have heard it and been able to locate the a/c.
Clarification: there are additional manual ELT's in the cabin that can be activated by crew members, and on slide rafts, but they do not include g-force sensing.

Primary versus Secondary Radar (brief tutorial)
Primary radar is based on the original military usage. It sends out a strong (KW to MW) signal and looks for a reflection from something.
Primary radar provides distance and location. Comparing returns speed can be determined. Strength of return can indicate size.
Stealth a/c and ships are designed to absorb or miss-direct the reflection so primary radar cannot see them.
Primary radar does not depend on the transponder, so turning off a transponder will not make an a/c disappear from primary.
Primary radar is less prevalent than secondary - and more typically military tho ATC's do use it.
Secondary Radar is really not Radar in the defined sense. It is directional communication.
In secondary radar a directional signal is sent out (much less powerful than primary). Any a/c with a transponder that receives it will respond (the transponder responds) with information about the aircraft.
Combined with the direction of the outgoing beam, the time of flight information and returned information, the a/c location and identity (and other info depending on the mode) is returned.
Secondary radar is the primary method used by ATC.
If the transponder fails or is turned off - secondary radar will not see the a/c.
In the case of MH370
The transponder was turned off - so the a/c disappeared from secondary (ATC) radar.
A target was tracked west, then northwest using primary radar. That target was correlated with SATCOM pings help determine it was MH370.

Airworthiness Directive
The airworthiness directive about corrosion near the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship.
The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antenna

Aircraft Type and Fuel State
The aircraft was a Boeing 777-200ER. MTOW 656,000 lbs, 301 3 class passengers (standard Boeing Config - does not reflect MH specific config.)
The aircraft could land in 6000 ft, or much less at high risk. As little as 3000ft has been stated, but it could not take off from there.
The aircraft would need a hard surface to land - this is heavier that has been done on steel matts.
It is reported the aircraft 45 to 60 minutes extra fuel. This would amount to about 7-7.5 hrs of fuel. This is a normal amount for this route.
The aircraft should have been able to fly about 30 minutes after the last SATCOM ping at 8:11.
The figure at this link show max range for the 777-200ER. NOTE: MH370 was not fueled for this range. http://www.boeing.com/assets/pdf/com.../777_range_singapore.pdf

Can a 777 fly 'by itself' for 7+ hours.
There has been much debate on if the 777 could continue to fly without human intervention for 7+ hours.
Fundamentallywe know the aircraft did fly on - so any theory must support a potential for the aircraft to continue in flight.
Satcom data has eliminated the "stationary on the ground" theory
Without information on the conditions on the aircraft - we cannot make a determination of what the a/c could or could not do.
We can make some educated statements:
If under human control - obviously it could fly this long.
On full autopilot it could fly on - however, that would assume a course was programmed in. If a 777 is programed to a way-point and it reaches that point - it will continue on the last heading.
If in heading and speed hold mode - it could fly to fuel fuel exhaustion.
In a 777, unlike and Airbus a/c, upon flame out the 777 will pitch down to maintain speed. An airbus will pitch up to attempt to maintain altitude till alpha prots cause it to decent at just above stall, nose up. No argument about which is better please. It is irrelevant - both will descend.
In summary - there are multiple scenarios where the a/c would have continued in flight till fuel exhaustion. We have no data or basis to include or exclude any of them.

Search Areas
Searching is now exclusively in the South Indian Ocean west of Australia.
AMSA Maps http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/incidents/mh370-search.asp

Mobile phones
We continue to have lots of discussion on "mobile phones" - can the connect in flight, etc.
We don't have any reports or evidence of that any passenger or crew mobile phone has registered with any network.
Until we have that data or reports - I believe the mobile phone discussions are not getting us anywhere.
UPDATE: This subject continues to be discussed. But, we have had no reports of cell phones registering with towers - we are in a loop here.

Most Common Theories. Note - all have problems!
Successful hijacking either with crew complicity or not, followed by controlled flight somewhere. Argument against: most believe we would have found/tracked the aircraft or heard something from the hijackers. Also, actions by passengers.
Unsuccessful hijacking either with crew complicity or not, followed by automatic flight to fuel exhaustion. Argument against: Likely the passengers would know and some action would be taken.
Pilot homicide/suicide followed by controlled or automatic flight till fuel exhaustion. Arguments against: No evidence of motive. Why fly to remote area rather than immediate crash. May require hypoxia to disable cabin crew/passengers.
Mechanical failure that disabled all comms, disabled crew/passengers but left a/c flying in an automatic mode: Theory not in favor with investigators.

Less Common Theories and Conspiracy Theories (simplified)
Other theories that seem less likely or fully improbable - however most are versions of the above.
A fire broke out that incapacitated passengers and crew - but allowed to aircraft to fly on it's own till starvation. This is a form of the Mechanical failure theory based on fire.
The aircraft "shadowed" either a KLM or SIA aircraft to hide from radar then turned off the track and landed.
Freescale engineers have been hijacked for sensitive US data.
There was something in the Cargo worth stealing - which is why it was not screened.
The plane was full of undeclared gold.Gold is very heavy - what would you declare the cargo as?
The US hijacked the 777 using on board FBW technology to fly it like a drone to Diego Garcia (this one wins the insanity case).
There has been a claim by counter terrorist expert that this could be a "cyber hijack" - a malicious attack of a FBW a/c by somebody in the back with a smart phone.

Crew Related Theories
The crew and passengers are a focus of investigation. Particularly the crew, because of the difficulty of managing an external cockpit intrusion.
The pilot has received a lot of attention because: 1) He supports opposition politics, 2) He has a mongo flight simulator, 3) There are rumors of family problems (debunked???).

Dismissed or Confirmed not True
Chinese Satellite Debris - nothing found in area.
Oil worker report - nothing found in area.
Greek shipping debris - nothing found/not related.
Raft with "Boarding" found - not related
Original 'debris' reports (March 8/9) not related/nothing found.
Maldives low flying a/c - not related.
Cell phones ringing - artifact of the cellular system.
Aliens.

IN summary what we know is.
The aircraft departed KUL normally then secondary radar, voice and ACARS Contact was lost.
The aircraft turned west, then north west and primary radar contact was lost.
The aircraft continued to fly, or operate, for approximately 7 hrs.
We have not found the aircraft or wreckage and have not received any ELT transmissions.
The aircraft is lost (in the sense of crashed) with all souls on board. May they Rest in Peace.
The aircraft flew south into a remote part of the Indian Ocean.
Probable location of aircraft at last 'ping' place it 4-5 hours from major land with 30-45 minutes of fuel.

That is all.
Respectfully Submitted - rcair1
rcair1

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