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Starlionblue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 3:24 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 35):

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 32):
You're not going to learn much about flying an airliner by continuing to fly a Cessna 172 if you already have a commercial license. However you would learn a huge amount in a few hours in a certified "Flight Training Device" (non-moving sim) with a certified instructor. (Note not the same as an "entertainment sim".)

I know this :P But this isn't a certified simulator, is it? Someone trying to build hours sure wouldn't touch it.

Leaving aside the home builds, many "retail sims" have at least some level of certification as Flight Training Devices for instrument and procedures training. So they do have training utility. Do you really need full motion to practice engine out procedures or instrument approaches? I mean sure, at one point you have to go to the full motion to accurately model the aircraft, but you can probably do much of the training without full motion.

Even setting aside that, if you're trying to get a job at an airline, you can get a lot of training done in an FTD for a reasonable price, without buying much more expensive time in a full motion sim. This is the case whether you are already type rated or not. For the price of 4 hours in a full motion sim (which is also really hard to book), you can get 25+ hours in an FTD. Sure, it's not as good, but I bet an inexperienced pilot will learn more in those 25 than he would in the 4 in a FMS.

The quality of the training is largely dependent on how you perform it. I spent fifty hours with a Cessna 172 FTD preparing for my instrument rating. (FAA CPL allows substituting 50 of the 250 hours minimum with time in an FTD). This cost less than half of what the real plane cost. I could do it without constant instructor supervision (they'd check logs and come in every ten minutes or so) and I could practice many more approaches with less stress.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
kiwiinoz
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 3:24 am

Here's something I think would be really interesting. This is probably the most followed aviation event in the history of Anet. Is there any way for the mods to graph views and contributions to the threads,(and maybe new membership signups?) . A line graph would doit. Perhaps also highlighting times when key events broke in the story.
 
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CALTECH
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 3:32 am

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 38):
If you can't pass a medical, or you can't ever consider the possibility of actually flying a real plane - $149 per hour isn't a bad price.

My home FSX setup involved a $3,900 computer, a triple monitor setup, pedals, yoke, throttle module, avionics modules, surround sound.

After getting time in A-320, B-52, B-757, B-767 and B-787 full motion simulators, all other home or static sims just do not compare. Other than the real thing, full motion simulators are a blast. Some of the guys were on the verge of getting sick in the full motion simulators, they are that good.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 38):
Now, don't get me started on how much money I've spent over the past 40 years on model trains - a LOT more.

Oh, me too. Packing them up recently, quit counting the engines at 100. HO scale.
You are here.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 3:42 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 50):
Leaving aside the home builds, many "retail sims" have at least some level of certification as Flight Training Devices for instrument and procedures training. So they do have training utility.

If this is such a device, I completely agree with you then. 150/hr for certified sim time on a 777 is a bargain.

If this sim is certified as a FTD as you said, CNN is screwing a lot of real pilots by buying all the time on it...

Thanks for your input.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
BestWestern
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 3:48 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 1):

The "no shit, sherlock" award goes to CNN today

To quote from

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/cnns-savidge-not-ready-bust-out-cockpit

CNN's motivations are obvious. Since its extensive coverage began, CNN viewership is up 84 percent over what it had been before the plane went missing, the Nielsen company said. During that same period, Fox News Channel's audience has increased 2 percent, while MSNBC is down 11 percent.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 3:55 am

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 25):
[edit: ugh, never mind, if the aircraft terminal corrects for aircraft velocity, then you indeed do not get the desired measurement I described below. Just one less constraint, darn...]

Yes, it all depends on whether the terminal corrects for the aircraft velocity. As far as I can see, the graph is consistent for not correcting, as the offset (Doppler shift) is steadily increasing (and not resetting every now and then).

The Malaysian Air Traffic Investigation Board (or whatever is the offical name) should release an interim report containing the factual information about the flight and the analysis performed on the flight track. Otherwise it will be endless speculation on the matter both here and media.
 
mandala499
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 4:13 am

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 9):
If that is accurate then only information that can be extracted from the Doppler shift is a selection of the south track versus north track and nothing else.

Exactly...

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 25):
The Doppler shift can then be used to measure one component of the airplane velocity, projected on the satellite-airplane vector. That's not as nice as a direct measurement of velocity, but it does constrain the reconstruction of a path that fits through all the hourly ping arcs.

What we're getting isn't a simple doppler shift. The aircraft adjusts the frequency it uses to send its transmission to the satellite. This negates almost if not all of the doppler shift. This minimizes the frequency shift of the aircraft's transmission, therefore preventing interference with users throughout the satellite's beam envelope.
This was also mentined by MarkAK in the previous thread:

Quoting MarkAK (Reply 370):
The A/C SATCOM terminal knows the A/C location and velocity and it PRE-CORRECTS the Tx signal for Doppler. The objective is that the signal should be as close as possible to the correct frequency when it arrives at the satellite. Since the A/C has pre corrected and removed the Doppler due to the A/C motion, you cannot discern anything about the A/C motion from the Doppler either.

I received an email from an A.net lurker too, who pointed at further data on this:
4.4.1 AutomaticFrequencyCompensation(AFC) The Psmc Channel transmission is used by the SRT to obtain log-on information and to set the reply channel frequency. The reply channel frequency is adjusted to compensate for the Doppler shift occurring to the rf transmissions between the aircraft and the satellite.

In order to reduce the frequency errors due to the Doppler shift of the transmitted signal, automatic frequency compensation is performed by the AES on the outbound and inbound rf communication signals.
Each SRT maintains an aircraft system table in nonvolatile memory that contains, among other information, the frequencies of the Psmc Channels for each satellite region. The SRT determines the difference between the received signal frequency and the assigned Psmc Channel frequency. That information is then used to adjust the transmitted signal for Doppler shift.
The goal of the frequency compensation is that the satellite receivers perceive no frequency shift (due to Doppler effect) in the airborne transmitted frequency.


Quoting Finn350 (Reply 55):
The Malaysian Air Traffic Investigation Board (or whatever is the offical name) should release an interim report containing the factual information about the flight and the analysis performed on the flight track. Otherwise it will be endless speculation on the matter both here and media.

This is going to be important. Extremely important...
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 4:20 am

The investigators are very lucky that the satellite has a relatively long orbit and its inclination hasn't been corrected in a while, then.

It is a little amusing that the fact you've got an old satellite wandering all over the place is the only reason they were able to break the symmetry.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
KirkSeattle
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 4:22 am

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 54):
To quote from

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/cnns-savidge-not-ready-bust-out-cockpit

CNN's motivations are obvious. Since its extensive coverage began, CNN viewership is up 84 percent over what it had been before the plane went missing, the Nielsen company said. During that same period, Fox News Channel's audience has increased 2 percent, while MSNBC is down 11 percent.

And what about the other stations across the world? That seems to have been left out of your post. How is the CBC of Canada doing? China? Malaysia ? Please report those. Again, we in the US have other coverage going on, CNN is a resource but to say we all stay glued to CNN, get real. Drop it, please.
 
Gasman
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 4:28 am

Certain aspects of this whole episode anger me. It seems that as far as data recording facilities go, aircraft are stuck in the 1970's

- why do the data recorder pinger batteries last only 30 days? AF447 clearly demonstrated this is insufficient.
- why is there not a failsafe tracking system on aircraft that cannot be deactivated from the flight deck?
- why do we we still rely on data recorders? Why is flight data not streamed and uploaded continuously via satellite to a ground station somewhere?

I would really, really hope we see some leadership from the FAA as a result of this.
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 4:30 am

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 55):
As far as I can see, the graph is consistent for not correcting, as the offset (Doppler shift) is steadily increasing (and not resetting every now and then).

What we are seeing in the graph, if I understand correctly, is the Doppler shift due to north-south satellite motion, which is not compensated. This Doppler shift varies over several hours because the satellite oscillates about the equatorial plane with a period of approximately one day, at a peak velocity of about 70 m/s. The duration of the flight was about 1/3 day, allowing for plenty of variation in the satellite's Doppler signature.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 56):
I received an email from an A.net lurker too, who pointed at further data on this:

Thanks to you and to the lurker for the explanation.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 4:31 am

Quoting KirkSeattle (Reply 58):
How is the CBC of Canada doing?

From what I can tell, they have been talking a lot about the Washington mudslide. And various Canadian politics you wouldn't care about. As a Crown corporation, while not truly taxpayer funded, they are a little less desperate for ratings than other news organizations. The CBC isn't perfect by far, but they haven't tried to capitalize on tragedy like some other news networks have.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 4:39 am

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 60):
What we are seeing in the graph, if I understand correctly, is the Doppler shift due to north-south satellite motion, which is not compensated. This Doppler shift varies over several hours because the satellite oscillates about the equatorial plane with a period of approximately one day, at a peak velocity of about 70 m/s. The duration of the flight was about 1/3 day, allowing for plenty of variation in the satellite's Doppler signature.

OK. That would also be consistent with the magnitude of the effect . A Doppler shift of 300 Hz at 1.6 GHz would indicate a velocity difference of 1.6 GHz / 300 000 km/s x 300 Hz = 56 m/s, roughly the same magnitude.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 4:43 am

Quoting gasman (Reply 59):
- why do the data recorder pinger batteries last only 30 days? AF447 clearly demonstrated this is insufficient.
- why is there not a failsafe tracking system on aircraft that cannot be deactivated from the flight deck?
- why do we we still rely on data recorders? Why is flight data not streamed and uploaded continuously via satellite to a ground station somewhere?

- AF447 had assets listening for pingers in the exact area that they were, passed directly over them, and didn't hear anything. The practical reason is that the ULB requires power, and the longer you want to power it, the bigger the battery needs to be, the bigger the battery needs to be the more it costs, the more hazard it represents. There may be some way to improve this, but this is relatively old technology and everything in aviation moves at a glacial pace and at great cost. This can change, but it won't save lives, so it will take time.

- This has been discussed. A lot. This is another aspect where maybe things can improve, but it won't save lives. There are already tracking mechanisms. ADS-B, ACARS, if you crash on land you've got the ELT on 406, etc. It's all about implementing them, and they wouldn't have helped here. As for not being able to turn them off, well, anything powerful enough to be useful could be a hazard and you'd want to be able to turn that off. But maybe there is a better way.

- Way too expensive. Bandwidth in space is more expensive than you could ever imagine. I've said it before and I'll say it again: if you build a system that could do that (live downlink CVR FDR continuously), and spread the cost across all the world's airlines, you would bankrupt all of them. If you could even find enough spectrum. For what purpose? For the one in a million incident where the recorders can't be recovered? It doesn't make sense. There have been very few disasters where recorders have not been found. I only know of Varig 967, personally.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
aviators99
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 4:52 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 63):
Way too expensive. Bandwidth in space is more expensive than you could ever imagine. I've said it before and I'll say it again: if you build a system that could do that (live downlink CVR FDR continuously), and spread the cost across all the world's airlines, you would bankrupt all of them. If you could even find enough spectrum. For what purpose? For the one in a million incident where the recorders can't be recovered? It doesn't make sense. There have been very few disasters where recorders have not been found. I only know of Varig 967, personally.

Avionica has had something like this for a while.
http://www.avionica.com

I did some work for them a few years ago.

Edit: Not CVR, but FDR

[Edited 2014-03-29 21:57:09]
 
KirkSeattle
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 4:55 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 61):
From what I can tell, they have been talking a lot about the Washington mudslide. And various Canadian politics you wouldn't care about. As a Crown corporation, while not truly taxpayer funded, they are a little less desperate for ratings than other news organizations. The CBC isn't perfect by far, but they haven't tried to capitalize on tragedy like some other news networks have.

Plenty of coverage on the 17 dead and 90 people missing in Oso, Washington here in the US, especially here in the Seattle area.

But, to point to "capitalize" on a tragedy, hardly. It's offensive you say that without saying what other news agencies are doing the same. And, albeit a sad time, we will all continue to watch once verifiable debris is found.

Pick another lane, neighbor.

KirkSeattle
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 4:57 am

Quoting aviators99 (Reply 64):
Avionica has had something like this for a while.
http://www.avionica.com

I did some work for them a few years ago.

And I worked for MDA. Yay. I am not familiar with Avionica's products, sorry.

I am aware doing it for 1 or 10 or 100 aircraft is practicable, albeit expensive. Now do it for *every commercial airliner in the world*.

There is no debate that this is impossible with what we have now, it's a fact.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 5:01 am

Quoting KirkSeattle (Reply 65):
But, to point to "capitalize" on a tragedy, hardly.

CNN literally flew a guy (back) to Ontario because they found that covering MH370 with him in the simulator got them an incredible ratings bump.

Does that not strictly agree with what I said, or do we need to redefine some basic vocabulary here?
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
rj777
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 5:14 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 67):
Does that not strictly agree with what I said, or do we need to redefine some basic vocabulary here?

What we need to do is not focus on the ethics of CNN's coverage, but rather the developments in this case, and that is whether or not the new objects spotted are in fact from MH370.
 
65mustang
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 5:18 am

There has been discussion in previous threads about the fr24 data showing 0 altitude and about why that could happen.

Fr24 data:

17:20:XX;*;*;028;35000;472;;;;FR24 Pn
17:20:15;;;;35000;471;;;;FR24 Gr
17:20:22;;;;35000;471;;;;FR24 Gr
17:20:33;;;;35000;471;;;;FR24 Gr
17:20:49;;;;35000;471;;;;FR24 Gr
17:20:XX;6,9300;103,5900;040;0;471;0;2157;F-WMKC1;FR24 Pb
17:21:XX;6,9700;103,6300;040;0;471;0;2157;F-WMKC1;FR24 Pb

From the Flight management, navigation manual:




Based on the info above, it appears the transponder mode selector knob was set on "xpndr" at17:20:49. At 17:20:xx and at 17:21:xx it was set on "alt rptg off". Then between 17:21:xx and the next time the transponder was set to transmit, the knob was turned to "stby". This explains the fr24 data doesn't it?

If this is what happened, what reason would a pilot turn the transponder mode selector to "alt rptg off" for 1 minute and then to "stby"? If the original intention by the pilot was to turn the knob all the way to "stby" and it was turned to "alt rptg off" by mistake, maybe the pilot was distracted for some reason. (Intense conversation/debate or maybe alarms for example)
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 5:20 am

Quoting rj777 (Reply 68):
What we need to do is not focus on the ethics of CNN's coverage, but rather the developments in this case, and that is whether or not the new objects spotted are in fact from MH370.

I agree. Twilight isn't for nearly a half-dozen hours down there, and clearly the things I'm saying here are hitting brick walls. Perhaps I should sign off for the night.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
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seat55a
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 5:29 am

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 69):
If the original intention by the pilot was to turn the knob all the way to "stby" and it was turned to "alt rptg off" by mistake, maybe the pilot was distracted for some reason. (Intense conversation/debate or maybe alarms for example)

Or the pilot was told to turn it off and tried to fake it.
 
mandala499
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 5:36 am

Quoting gasman (Reply 59):
- why is there not a failsafe tracking system on aircraft that cannot be deactivated from the flight deck?
- why do we we still rely on data recorders? Why is flight data not streamed and uploaded continuously via satellite to a ground station somewhere?

There is... welll not "cannot be deactivated", but "hard to deactivate".
The thing is, one should not underestimate the grip that ARINC and SITA has over the airlines, especially the large flag carriers. In the past, SITA and ARINC are not interested in "accomodating" non-ACARS based tracking systems...
Several airlines have however, dared to go, "screw your costs, I'm dumping ACARS and going alone for the tracking, and monitoring, etc... it's a heck of a lot cheaper..."
More needs to wake up to the benefits of the alternatives.

Do not underestimate the price of the bandwidth. 1 Mb costs at the cheapest $4.5 with Inmarsat SwiftBroadband which is going to be available for safety services very soon. Now, 1 year's worth of flying with about 200 variables at 1Hz recording interval to 32GB a year. The FDRs can have 2000 variables. Now increase the recording interval resolution too, and you can quickly imagine the cost.

Quoting aviators99 (Reply 64):
Avionica has had something like this for a while.
http://www.avionica.com

I did some work for them a few years ago.

Avionica's box is one of the better ones of these "new solutions" floating around... however, their QAR data transmission is on terrestrial 3G only.
For a QAR with realtime exceedance event transmission, or with "event-trigger rapid interval position & key data transmission", there's FlyHT and LatitudeTech. I'm more familiar with the latter as I am also developing further solutions out of their product ranges... although I must admit, Avionica did turn my head a bit!   
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
TSS
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 5:45 am

Quoting kiwiinoz (Reply 51):
Here's something I think would be really interesting. This is probably the most followed aviation event in the history of Anet. Is there any way for the mods to graph views and contributions to the threads,(and maybe new membership signups?) .

On other websites and in meatspace, every time I've seen someone present a theory on MH370's disappearance that was dismissed here as impossible or at least extremely improbable within the first day or two after the event, I've directed those individuals to the latest version of these threads in general and Rcair's periodic "Sanity Check" posts in particular for clear, concise, and up-to-the-minute information on MH370 that is usually days ahead of and far more accurate than anything I've seen on TV or in printed media (I was surprised and delighted when a national news network showed a photo of a 777 in the correct livery while reporting on MH370's disappearance). Whether or not any of these individuals have followed my recommendation is a matter of speculation, but at least I've made the effort.

I'd like to take this opportunity to thank all the knowledgeable contributors to these threads for making some very technical information understandable to us laymen, and especially Rcair for correlating and updating the facts in the case as they are revealed.
Able to kill active threads stone dead with a single post!
 
Gasman
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 5:45 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 63):
The practical reason is that the ULB requires power, and the longer you want to power it, the bigger the battery needs to be

Flight data recorders weigh less than 10kg, including the battery. Mandating a 90 day battery life could happen tomorrow, and would increase weight of the aircraft by less than that of a one year old baby.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 63):
This can change, but it won't save lives, so it will take time.

Of course it could save lives. That's why we have flight recorders at all.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 63):
As for not being able to turn them off, well, anything powerful enough to be useful could be a hazard and you'd want to be able to turn that off. But maybe there is a better way.

Yes, the 'need to be able to turn off if an electrical failure' excuse is acknowledged, but as you say, there just has to be some acceptable safe solution here. Anyway, how many disasters have been averted in all of history because the transponder was able to be deactivated?

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 63):
Way too expensive. Bandwidth in space is more expensive than you could ever imagine. I've said it before and I'll say it again: if you build a system that could do that (live downlink CVR FDR continuously), and spread the cost across all the world's airlines, you would bankrupt all of them.

You know this how? Telecom companies seem to be able to provide voice calls using satellites for $0.10 per minute. Particularly if the data is sent as packets.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 63):
For what purpose? For the one in a million incident where the recorders can't be recovered?

On this argument, why have flight data recorders at all?? Two thirds of the earth's surface is covered in water. Two recent high profile wide body commercial disasters (MH370 AF447) have had the recovery and analysis hampered by the lack of availability of systems that I describe.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 63):
There have been very few disasters where recorders have not been found

But AF447 took - what - two years? - and MH370 may never be found. In my opinion, this simply isn't good enough. The time has come to mandate a higher standard.
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 6:06 am

Don't know if this has been mentioned, but has anybody thought about looking at satellite images taken of the areas where all the so called objects are a few days or so before MH370 went missing? I'm just curious if all of these new images are of sea junk that was previously there. I don't know if the older images would be of the same quality though...
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 6:08 am

I suppose it's impossible for me to sign off...

Quoting gasman (Reply 74):
Flight data recorders weigh less than 10kg, including the battery. Mandating a 90 day battery life could happen tomorrow, and would increase weight of the aircraft by less than that of a one year old baby.

This is true, but would require a whole certification process, then there would need to be more room for the larger ULB, etc. For something of relatively limited utility in these situations...

Quoting gasman (Reply 74):
Of course it could save lives. That's why we have flight recorders at all.

Of course, potentially save future lives by avoiding disaster, which is the goal of any investigation, but not the lives in question. So far only Varig hasn't been found, so they do their job well...

Quoting gasman (Reply 74):
Yes, the 'need to be able to turn off if an electrical failure' excuse is acknowledged, but as you say, there just has to be some acceptable safe solution here. Anyway, how many disasters have been averted in all of history because the transponder was able to be deactivated?

The transponder needs to be disabled far more often than just in a "shit I think my transponder is on fire" situation. Not like you'd *know* it was on fire anyway...

Quoting gasman (Reply 74):
You know this how? Telecom companies seem to be able to provide voice calls using satellites for $0.10 per minute. Particularly if the data is sent as packets.

I know this by working in R&D for an aerospace company that designs satellites? People here with SATCOM experience can tell you how expensive it is. I can tell you that the cost of designing, launching, and maintaining such a system would be so astronomical that I can't even comprehend it. Full CVR & FDR downlink for all airliners worldwide is simply not a workable solution at the moment. I think it will happen eventually, don't get me wrong, we just can't do it right now.

Quoting gasman (Reply 74):
On this argument, why have flight data recorders at all?? Two thirds of the earth's surface is covered in water. Two recent high profile wide body commercial disasters (MH370 AF447) have had the recovery and analysis hampered by the lack of availability of systems that I describe.

Yes, two bad things happened in the middle of an ocean. It's true. But we had very good information about where AF447 was, and it was found practically within a day.

The fallacy would be that you expect to find these things happening again soon. The truth is these events are not frequent, and MH370 may as well be a unicorn because of how unprecedented it is.

Quoting gasman (Reply 74):
But AF447 took - what - two years? - and MH370 may never be found. In my opinion, this simply isn't good enough. The time has come to mandate a higher standard.

AF447 took a day. Recovery took the years.

And - who is going to 'mandate'? The FAA? ICAO? They can't mandate jack if people don't agree.

There are workable solutions that carriers can agree to, if you want to solve the problem that is completely unique to this flight. But full downlink of recorders - please. I mean, advocate for it all you want, but good luck.

[Edited 2014-03-29 23:16:15]
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
Gasman
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 6:17 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 76):
I suppose it's impossible for me to sign off...

Indeed! Agree with and acknowledge all your points. Cheers.
 
mandala499
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 6:22 am

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 69):
There has been discussion in previous threads about the fr24 data showing 0 altitude and about why that could happen.
Based on the info above, it appears the transponder mode selector knob was set on "xpndr" at17:20:49. At 17:20:xx and at 17:21:xx it was set on "alt rptg off". Then between 17:21:xx and the next time the transponder was set to transmit, the knob was turned to "stby". This explains the fr24 data doesn't it?

what reason would a pilot turn the transponder mode selector to "alt rptg off" for 1 minute and then to "stby"? If the original intention by the pilot was to turn the knob all the way to "stby" and it was turned to "alt rptg off" by mistake, maybe the pilot was distracted for some reason. (Intense conversation/debate or maybe alarms for example)

This is why I wanted to see the actual higher resolution ADS-B raw data that the FR24 feedster may have.
We need to know how long was the transition from normal to ALT RPTG OFF to STDBY.
I doubt it was a minute, it could be pure luck that it was captured... It can yield to a better aspect on how the disappearance was done at the beginning.  
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
KirkSeattle
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 6:32 am

Quoting rj777 (Reply 68):
Quoting nupogodi (Reply 67):
Does that not strictly agree with what I said, or do we need to redefine some basic vocabulary here?

What we need to do is not focus on the ethics of CNN's coverage, but rather the developments in this case, and that is whether or not the new objects spotted are in fact from MH370.

Give it a rest. Your comments on media are getting old and tired. Really.

rj777 is right, back to the developments of the case.
 
kiwiinoz
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 7:31 am

Quoting TSS (Reply 73):

Hi, I agree with your comments. But I don't mean a summary of the finding of the thread. I mean a statistical analysis of thread activity, ie some web analytics. We could see peaks of activity of views, posts, etc throughout the last 3 weeks
 
EC135
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 7:33 am

I have a question to the Maldives sighting and I don't know whether it is answered yet. I don't want to speculate if the sighting is related to MH370 as there are several arguments against, but has the identity of the aircraft been clarified? The local residents reported a very loud, low flying, large a/c, white c/s with red stripes and there are reports the even saw doors. I am pretty convinced they have seen Maldivian Air Taxis quite often so they for sure can and they did say, the aircraft was different from what they know. What a/c have they seen? What are the Maldivian officials saying? No radar coverage at all? Can you fly over the Maldives without being detected?

[Edited 2014-03-30 00:35:17]
 
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p51tang
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 8:08 am

Quoting gasman (Reply 59):
- why do the data recorder pinger batteries last only 30 days? AF447 clearly demonstrated this is insufficient.
- why is there not a failsafe tracking system on aircraft that cannot be deactivated from the flight deck?
- why do we we still rely on data recorders? Why is flight data not streamed and uploaded continuously via satellite to a ground station somewhere?

I'd like to add: 3 monthly Psychological Report of Flight Crew conducted by a Clinical Psychologist appointed by Civil Aviation.Not the Airline Company.

Malaysia's Defence Minister Hishammuddin Hussein has already stated that a pre-check is conducted,and there after,a Psychological report every 6 months.

Quote:
He added that psychological checks are performed on pilots prior to being hired by MAS, and either every six months or annually by aviation doctors as part of their medical evaluation. - See more at: http://www.themalaymailonline.com/ma....dpuf

So much can happen to a persons life in 6 months...........



Update: C.I.A & MI6 involved:


http://www.smh.com.au/world/malaysia...ment-confirmed-20140330-zqop8.html

[Edited 2014-03-30 01:09:54]
 
Gasman
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 8:14 am

Quoting p51tang (Reply 82):
I'd like to add: 3 monthly Psychological Report of Flight Crew conducted by a Clinical Psychologist appointed by Civil Aviation.Not the Airline Company.

Completely agree. Airlines need to do more for the mental health of their pilots.
 
jcxroberts
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 8:15 am

CNN could cover the plane mystery and still make it interesting without resorting to stupidity. Right now they are poisoning their own well over the long term.
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 8:17 am

Quoting gasman (Reply 59):

Certain aspects of this whole episode anger me. It seems that as far as data recording facilities go, aircraft are stuck in the 1970's

- why do the data recorder pinger batteries last only 30 days? AF447 clearly demonstrated this is insufficient.
- why is there not a failsafe tracking system on aircraft that cannot be deactivated from the flight deck?
- why do we we still rely on data recorders? Why is flight data not streamed and uploaded continuously via satellite to a ground station somewhere?

I would really, really hope we see some leadership from the FAA as a result of this.

The FAA has no authority over a plane registered in Malaysia.

30 days is a minimum, and I bet any recorder today already exceeds that. However there is a big step between 30 days and two years.

The problem with failsafe tracking systems that cannot be deactivated is that they add a risk to every flight for the one in three decades that cannot be found. This seems like a bad trade-off to me.

Streaming data is costly. Maybe not costly for one flight, but it adds up. Besides, there isn't nearly enough bandwidth. Again, it just isn't worth the money. If you're going to spend money on aviation safety, there are better places to put it.

Quoting CALTECH (Reply 52):

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 38):
If you can't pass a medical, or you can't ever consider the possibility of actually flying a real plane - $149 per hour isn't a bad price.

My home FSX setup involved a $3,900 computer, a triple monitor setup, pedals, yoke, throttle module, avionics modules, surround sound.

After getting time in A-320, B-52, B-757, B-767 and B-787 full motion simulators, all other home or static sims just do not compare. Other than the real thing, full motion simulators are a blast. Some of the guys were on the verge of getting sick in the full motion simulators, they are that good.

That's not the point. Full motion is indeed much nicer, but certified fixed base sims has tremendous utility also. If you're training for real, the point is learning. Most pilots, including myself, have learned tremendous amounts of stuff from Flight Training devices at a fraction of what a full motion sim costs. FTDs are a great completement to FMSs, and you can have a blast using them.  
Quoting gasman (Reply 74):
Quoting nupogodi (Reply 63):
As for not being able to turn them off, well, anything powerful enough to be useful could be a hazard and you'd want to be able to turn that off. But maybe there is a better way.

Yes, the 'need to be able to turn off if an electrical failure' excuse is acknowledged, but as you say, there just has to be some acceptable safe solution here. Anyway, how many disasters have been averted in all of history because the transponder was able to be deactivated?

It's not an "excuse". If you have a fire in your house you can run outside. If you have a fire in a plane, things are quite different.

Many many accidents have been averted because electricals have been switched off. And not just transponders. Thinking that aviation can be made safer because a device allows better tracking at the expense of a raft of other safety features is a fallacy.


Don't get me wrong. I do agree that improvements can be made. I just think that they need to be carefully thought out before you decrease safety levels based on a knee-jerk reaction to one completely outlier accident.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
jcxroberts
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 8:17 am

Pilots are well aware that their careers are gone if they report any mental issues. Anonymity does not exist.
 
Gasman
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 8:34 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 85):
The FAA has no authority over a plane registered in Malaysia.

True, but major carriers are obliged to abide by FAA regulations if they want to serve the USA. Which pretty much gives the FAA a global influence.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 85):
The problem with failsafe tracking systems that cannot be deactivated is that they add a risk to every flight for the one in three decades that cannot be found. This seems like a bad trade-off to me.

The 9/11 hijackers were also assisted by the ability to deactivate the transponder, and you can bet your bottom dollar that every subsequent "human intervention" from this point onwards will do the same, unless something changes.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 85):
The problem with failsafe tracking systems that cannot be deactivated is that they add a risk to every flight for the one in three decades that cannot be found. This seems like a bad trade-off to me

Well - we're both guessing. Formulae exist for calculating exactly what the relative risks are. I would be very surprised though, if minds far greater than mine couldn't come up with a failsafe tracking solution which is acceptable to all.

[quote=Starlionblue,reply=85]Thinking that aviation can be made safer because a device allows better tracking at the expense of a raft of other safety features is a fallacy.[/quote
Maybe, maybe not. In this particular case, reliable tracking info would have saved many millions of dollars in search & rescue, may well also have assisted in locating the black boxes, and in the event of the plane having landed somewhere, may directly have led to lives saved.
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 9:17 am

Quoting gasman (Reply 87):
Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 85):
The FAA has no authority over a plane registered in Malaysia.

True, but major carriers are obliged to abide by FAA regulations if they want to serve the USA. Which pretty much gives the FAA a global influence.

Most of the world's carriers don't go close to the USA. Having said that, the FAA and EASA regs are more or less carbon copied by many other countries.

Quoting gasman (Reply 87):
Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 85):
The problem with failsafe tracking systems that cannot be deactivated is that they add a risk to every flight for the one in three decades that cannot be found. This seems like a bad trade-off to me.

The 9/11 hijackers were also assisted by the ability to deactivate the transponder, and you can bet your bottom dollar that every subsequent "human intervention" from this point onwards will do the same, unless something changes.

You have to look at the trade-off you make if you mandate trackers that cannot be turned off. Are you willing to decrease the safety of every flight just for that one flight in a decade where the feature is needed?

It is a fallacy to think that a human life does not have an economic value in this context.

Quoting gasman (Reply 87):
[quote=Starlionblue,reply=85]Thinking that aviation can be made safer because a device allows better tracking at the expense of a raft of other safety features is a fallacy.[/quote
Maybe, maybe not. In this particular case, reliable tracking info would have saved many millions of dollars in search & rescue, may well also have assisted in locating the black boxes, and in the event of the plane having landed somewhere, may directly have led to lives saved.

Millions of dollars in SAR sounds like a lot, but compared to even one 777 costing over US$100m, not really that much.

Lose 2-3 more airliners due to an electrical fire, and the equation looks very different.

I'll add that for most pilots, the one big nightmare is fire. It is insidious and hard to control. It is the most dangerous thing you can experience in flight. I bet if you asked the average airline pilot, he would rather be able to turn off any electrical device and live with the one flight in a billion that you can't track because of that ability.

[Edited 2014-03-30 02:22:04]

[Edited 2014-03-30 02:45:53]
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
Pihero
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 9:32 am

Quoting gasman (Reply 87):
major carriers are obliged to abide by FAA regulations if they want to serve the USA. Which pretty much gives the FAA a global influence

Untrue. They have to abide by their own national regs, which may or may not conform to the FAA : take as an example fuel panning, It's a matter of international agreements. That also applies to US flights into another country, wheree the FAA has no jurisdiction.

Quoting gasman (Reply 87):

The 9/11 hijackers were also assisted by the ability to deactivate the transponder,

That's news to me !

Quoting gasman (Reply 87):
and you can bet your bottom dollar that every subsequent "human intervention" from this point onwards will do the same

As a matter of fact - and experience with an air defence command - that would be the best trigger for an alert in some radar station and the subsequent interception of that flight.
Why Flight 370 wasn't intercepted, or at the very least closely tracked by military radar operators is one of the mysteries of this accident.
Contrail designer
 
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p51tang
Posts: 69
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 9:51 am

Quoting gasman (Reply 87):
Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 85):

Quote:
The problem with failsafe tracking systems that cannot be deactivated is that they add a risk to every flight for the one in three decades that cannot be found. This seems like a bad trade-off to me.

The 9/11 hijackers were also assisted by the ability to deactivate the transponder, and you can bet your bottom dollar that every subsequent "human intervention" from this point onwards will do the same, unless something changes.

Agreed. But you have to look at the trade-off you make if you mandate trackers that cannot be turned off. Are you willing to decrease the safety of every flight just for that one flight in a decade where the feature is needed?

It is a fallacy to think that a human life does not have an economic value in this context.

How do you add risk to a flight, whereby, you have mandatory reporting during powered flight?.

After all.I'm sitting window on an exit seat (long legs) I signed up for nil shonky stuff up front.And the other 239 Passengers that I passed during boarding,gave me a smile and/or time of day.

[Edited 2014-03-30 02:54:09]
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 9:56 am

Quoting p51tang (Reply 90):
How do you add risk to a flight, whereby, you have mandatory reporting during powered flight?.

Because you are mandating an electrical system that cannot be turned off and it is wired to the rest of the plane. Bad Feng Shui.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
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p51tang
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 10:08 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 91):
Because you are mandating an electrical system that cannot be turned off and it is wired to the rest of the plane. Bad Feng Shui.

We seem to be in the same Asile watching the same movie,but our Feng Shui is busy providing in-flight service.  

Inmarsat has stated publicly, that it wants to go beyond Classic Aero.It wants reporting to shift from
the current model, to one that is (tamper proof). Re: Thread 46/47

I subscribe to this.The proof is in the pudding,and that remains to be Airline Industry re-uptake.
 
sipadan
Posts: 322
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 10:21 am

hey everyone,

As is known by some, I am squarely in the captain Zaharie Ahmed Shah acting alone homicide/suicide camp. I've explained why I believe this to be the case in former posts and have yet to see a shred of evidence which would point to his exoneration other than the highly subjective "I knew him and he couldn't have done this, he possessed the utmost sense of professionalism and was a wonderful man". Anyways, if you subscribe to this theory, and even if you don't but maybe have the inclination to test it out, indulge for a minute. If THE most important thing was that this a/c never be found, and, if found, found with as much time having passed as possible, where would you ( pilots and others with knowledge about how to most effectively disappear) have flown to, and how (altitude, direction, airspeed etc...)? Also, if you do indulge this scenario, maybe do so with the knowledge that this Immarsat data would exist to investigators (I'm sure no one thinks this could have been known, but I believe that Captain Shah actually knew this and that the flight path could be extrapolated). So, if you know literally EVERYTHING and all things that the investigators will be looking at data and otherwise, and you know this with a good degree of certainty, what evasive maneuvers could be taken to further lead the search astray? I am the furthest thing from an aviation pundit so am asking for some thought, input etc...for example, say mh370 was on this southern track (which I believe it was), and maybe altitudes are fluctuating wildly, or maybe it's a level flight path. Either way, what about backtracking...say you're 3 hours in to the 'southern track', effectively turn 180, staying in this southern arc, or even going back past the waypoint and head out North...would the Immarsat data clearly delineate this course re-heading? I assume yes, but just trying to think out of the box in so much as working from the hypothesis that he knew everything the investigators would have revealed to them and worked off this knowledge...anyways thanks and 2 more things...CNN is a DISGRACE (not surprised, but this has reached an all-time nadir) and, Mary Schiavo, a former head of the NTSB, when reacting to USA todays reporters claim that the investigators were now only looking at Captain Shah, says "well, there's no other way to say it, and I'm not going to sugarcoat it, It is frankly IMPOSSIBLE", this about the pilot being implicit. then she again talks about investigation bias and how she's been doing this for 35 years blah blah blah...IMPOSSIBLE, ah maybe take a look in the mirror...seriously, former head of NTSB?? families are going through a pain that I could not imagine having to endure...my thoughts and warmth is with them
 
Mir
Posts: 19491
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 3:55 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 10:34 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 50):
Do you really need full motion to practice engine out procedures or instrument approaches?

Instrument procedures no, engine-out procedures yes. You really need to be able to feel the yaw there. Just my opinion.

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 69):
Based on the info above, it appears the transponder mode selector knob was set on "xpndr" at17:20:49. At 17:20:xx and at 17:21:xx it was set on "alt rptg off". Then between 17:21:xx and the next time the transponder was set to transmit, the knob was turned to "stby". This explains the fr24 data doesn't it?

That's quite a short time between full function of the transponder and no function. I wouldn't necessarily read into that enough to say that the knob was turned to two different positions - if it had gone a couple of minutes on altitude reporting only then it would be good evidence.

-Mir
7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
 
mouldypete
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 10:39 am

Quoting Pihero (Reply 89):
As a matter of fact - and experience with an air defence command - that would be the best trigger for an alert in some radar station and the subsequent interception of that flight.
Why Flight 370 wasn't intercepted, or at the very least closely tracked by military radar operators is one of the mysteries of this accident.

Am I correct? I distinctly recall reading early on in this tragedy that it was Vietnam that alerted the Malaysian authorities that the plane may have turned back. This presumably had to be primary radar contact (military radar?) as the transponder was already off?
I have tried to trace the original text but no success.

[Edited 2014-03-30 03:40:46] Oops...found it....http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/se-asia/story/vietnam-says-it-told-malaysia-missing-plane-mh370-had-turned-back-201403

BTW for complete newbies (as me) there is a great simple fact sheet on the JORN Australian Radar system which explains why the radar doesn't sweep as I imagined but must be focussed in on a specific area. The fact sheet is at https://www.airforce.gov.au/docs/JORN_FAQS.pdf
and is very well written in very basic clear language.
Apologies if this has been posted before.


[Edited 2014-03-30 03:50:00]

[Edited 2014-03-30 03:53:42]
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 10:42 am

Quoting Mir (Reply 94):
Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 50):
Do you really need full motion to practice engine out procedures or instrument approaches?

Instrument procedures no, engine-out procedures yes. You really need to be able to feel the yaw there. Just my opinion.

Thx for clarification.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
Mir
Posts: 19491
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 3:55 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 10:51 am

Quoting mouldypete (Reply 95):
I distinctly recall reading early on in this tragedy that it was Vietnam that alerted the Malaysian authorities that the plane may have turned back. This presumably had to be primary radar contact (military radar?) as the transponder was already off?

Could be a lack of primary radar contact - they didn't actually see it turn back, but the fact that they didn't see it coming would lead them to believe that it turned back.

-Mir
7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
 
MD11Engineer
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 11:26 am

Chinese relatives of the disappeared plane's passengers demand an "apology" from Malaysia and the "murderer", accusing Malaysia of not telling them the truth. Actually I hope that the Malaysian government won't cave in.
They want to see somebody being punished fast and from the national symbols they are showing (flags etc.) it seems also to be a sign that Malaysia better not upset the big guy next door.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26806791

Jan
Je Suis Charlie et je suis Ahmet aussi
 
coolian2
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 48

Sun Mar 30, 2014 11:33 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 93):

Please use paragraphs in the future.
Q300/ATR72-600/737-200/-300/-400/-700/-800/A320/767-200/-300/757-200/777-300ER/
747-200/-300/-400/ER/A340-300/A380-800/MD-83/-88/CRJ-700/-900

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