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panampaul
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 4:21 pm

Given the ups and downs of the past few days, I found this argument reminding us of the importance of finding the missing airplane and getting answers refreshing.

Searching for Answers: Why Stopping the Hunt for Flight 370 is Not an Option

Quote:
....The plane “has” to be found, its mysteries “must be unraveled,” he said. “Triple 7s simply do not drop from the sky without reason. Without hard evidence as to what transpired that day on Flight 370, we lack the tools that may prevent something similar from happening again in the future. Repayment for this quest for knowledge may turn out to be this knowledge, plain and simple.”

.
 
Trin
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 4:22 pm

Quoting Summa767 (Reply 149):
Just like it did to the US 1549?
I seem to remember at least one rather large piece of it...
Quoting pvjin (Reply 148):
It could have landed just as intact as the A320 did in Hudson, assuming it was flown by a professional pilot.

So y'all are honestly suggesting that someone at the controls of MH370 was conscious, able and willing to give this jet a cushiony landing, after displaying the malice/insanity/nefariousness required to abduct the plane (and, more importantly, the 239 (238?) people on board) deliberately from its programmed route and take it to that place in the ocean? Who STILL had the wherewithall after this ordeal to pilot this airliner to a perfect ditch in the water? Pffft.

Fails the razor. Highly unlikely that there was anyone at the controls of the jet giving it a human-hand touchdown in the ocean at that point. I think the most human-related thing we may find from the CVR will be a last message if it was indeed suicide/hijacking.

[Edited 2014-04-09 09:24:38]
 
davidzill
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 4:27 pm

I think finding the CVR and FDR and maybe some substantial aircraft wreckage is all we can hope for, for now, and that would be a best case scenario. I think that all of those finds would do is rule out some possible causes, but anything and everything mechanical or fire related or even loss of cabin pressure related does not explain the aircraft skirting Indonesian radar, then flying until fuel exhaustion to a point that just happens to be some of the deepest seas in some of the most volatile and remote locations on the globe.

If the CVR does not shed a bright light on what sort on incident was unfolding, we may never know why the events unfolded as they did in their totality of circumstances. Minus the discovery of a suicide letter, forensic evidence from the crews home, or a terror group claiming responsibility, the human factors involved may forever remain a mystery.

[Edited 2014-04-09 09:29:00]
 
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pvjin
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 4:27 pm

Quoting Trin (Reply 152):
So y'all are honestly suggesting that someone at the controls of MH370 was conscious, able and willing to give this jet a cushiony landing, after displaying the malice/insanity/nefariousness required to abduct the plane (and, more importantly, the 239 (238?) people on board) deliberately from its programmed route and take it to that place in the ocean? Who STILL had the wherewithall after this ordeal to pilot this airliner to a perfect ditch in the water? Pffft.

It's possible, though not likely. At least it seems like the actual hijacking was committed in very well planned manner, without this satellite data nobody would have any idea about where it crashed.
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davidzill
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 4:34 pm

I'm sure this has been discussed already, but those big RR Trents hitting the water and a substantial speed would probably cause the wings and portions of the fuselage to be ripped off the aircraft at the very least. Maybe the aircraft is mostly intact in 3-4 large sections? I believe that to be very possible, but I find it difficult to understand why nothing has floated to the surface.
 
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bikerthai
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 4:34 pm

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 139):
I almost did a spit-take when I read that. At the speeds airliners travel, water is not much different than concrete. Water is dense, it doesn't compress and it physically can't move out of the way instantly.

Not a good example but . . . a plat form diver hitting the water perpendicularly vs a belly flop.

If the plane goes in nose first (does not have to be perpendicular because it will be at a significant velocity), the nose will crumple and the wings and tail may break off, but he fuselage may have a chance of staying in tact.

Remember that the airframe is design to withstand 9G forward loading. That is it's strongest direction.

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Summa767
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 4:36 pm

Quoting Trin (Reply 152):
So y'all are honestly suggesting that someone at the controls of MH370 was conscious, able and willing to give this jet a cushiony landing, after displaying the malice/insanity/nefariousness required to abduct the plane (and, more importantly, the 239 (238?) people on board) deliberately from its programmed route and take it to that place in the ocean?

I can't speak for anybody else, but I would certainly not rule out a controlled water landing by someone who would have taken the aircraft off course with the intent of leaving no track.
Turning off transponder and ACARS, and flying a course and altitude that minimises primary radar exposure towards the Indian Ocean. If the logic of leaving no tracks follows, avoiding scattering debris might have been another consideration.

Quoting pvjin (Reply 154):
At least it seems like the actual hijacking was committed in very well planned manner, without this satellite data nobody would have any idea about where it crashed.

 checkmark 

[Edited 2014-04-09 09:38:45]
 
Trin
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 4:40 pm

Quoting davidzill (Reply 155):
I'm sure this has been discussed already, but those big RR Trents hitting the water and a substantial speed would probably cause the wings and portions of the fuselage to be ripped off the aircraft at the very least. Maybe the aircraft is mostly intact in 3-4 large sections? I believe that to be very possible, but I find it difficult to understand why nothing has floated to the surface.

Absolutely - those massive RRs coming into contact with the water would almost certainly cause the wings to rip off, unlike many of our fellowes on here who seem to be hell-bent on believing otherwise.

One thing, though - we do not know that nothing has floated to the surface. All we know is that we haven't found anything. Any of the debris that would have floated to the surface would have done so WEEKS before the world was even looking in that part of the globe, and during pre/post-typhoon conditions.

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 156):
Not a good example but . . . a plat form diver hitting the water perpendicularly vs a belly flop.

Seriously? You are seriously bringing that analogy when looking at this case? This is a plane we are talking about - a 545,000lb bolted-together piece of machinery.

EDIT: Does anybody have links to records of what the ocean conditions were in the precise area of the current SAR efforts on the day the plane went missing?

[Edited 2014-04-09 09:42:10]

[Edited 2014-04-09 09:47:39]
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 4:44 pm

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 156):
If the plane goes in nose first (does not have to be perpendicular because it will be at a significant velocity), the nose will crumple and the wings and tail may break off, but he fuselage may have a chance of staying in tact.

Nonsense, it won't just "crumple". The dynamic pressure from a water impact is so large (orders of magnitude larger than what a lightweight semi-monocoque fuselage structure is designed for) that it will shred apart into small pieces.

[edit]:

Quoting Trin (Reply 158):
Absolutely - those massive RRs coming into contact with the water would almost certainly cause the wings to rip off, unlike many of our fellowes on here who seem to be hell-bent on believing otherwise.

Wrong. Engine mounts are carefully designed to separate from the wing without damaging the wing structure.

[Edited 2014-04-09 09:46:59]
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 4:46 pm

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 156):
Not a good example but . . . a plat form diver hitting the water perpendicularly vs a belly flop.If the plane goes in nose first (does not have to be perpendicular because it will be at a significant velocity), the nose will crumple and the wings and tail may break off, but he fuselage may have a chance of staying in tact.Remember that the airframe is design to withstand 9G forward loading. That is it's strongest direction.

I'm trying to envision any time where a commercial airliner has nosed-into something at speed that would have been equivalent to a concrete wall and survived in such a manner? Perhaps it's happened but usually we hear about obliteration or complete structural failure when a plane noses into the water. AS261 would be one example.

As for a widebody landing on the OCEAN intact, I can only think of one relatively successful time that this has happened, about 37 years ago. It was a Stevens 747, I believe. I think it was called Airport '77. Entertaining to think about, but not quite believable to me.

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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 4:47 pm

Quoting Trin (Reply 152):
Highly unlikely that there was anyone at the controls of the jet giving it a human-hand touchdown in the ocean at that point.

I agree. Highly unlikely. That being said, it seems to me that we are probably looking for a cause, or causes, that are probably highly unlikely. That seems to be the way this search/investigation has gone from the very beginning.

Quoting davidzill (Reply 153):
If the CVR does not shed a bright light on what sort on incident was unfolding, we may never know why the events unfolded as they did in their totality of circumstances. Minus the discovery of a suicide letter, forensic evidence from the crews home, or a terror group claiming responsibility, the human factors involved may forever remain a mystery.

You're probably right. If recovered, perhaps the FDR will allow us to rule out a mechanical cause, although that wasn't the case for TWA800. It was reconstruction of aircraft wreckage that pointed to the fuel tank explosion. This may take years and years to figure out, or we may never know.
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Trin
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 4:50 pm

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 159):

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 156):
If the plane goes in nose first (does not have to be perpendicular because it will be at a significant velocity), the nose will crumple and the wings and tail may break off, but he fuselage may have a chance of staying in tact.

Nonsense, it won't just "crumple". The dynamic pressure from a water impact is so large (orders of magnitude larger than what a lightweight semi-monocoque fuselage structure is designed for) that it will shred apart into small pieces.

[edit]:

Quoting Trin (Reply 158):
Absolutely - those massive RRs coming into contact with the water would almost certainly cause the wings to rip off, unlike many of our fellowes on here who seem to be hell-bent on believing otherwise.

Wrong. Engine mounts are carefully designed to separate from the wing without damaging the wing structure.

Seems like some are obsessed with imagining the aircraft as a paper plane. That it can just bop into stuff here and there during flight and remain relatively intact. Not sure where that assumption comes from - see my earlier post about the laws of physics w/r/t energy generation during deceleration of massive objects.

Thanks for the clarification on the engines - I had forgot that they were designed to disengage.
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 4:52 pm

Quoting Summa767 (Reply 157):
I can't speak for anybody else, but I would certainly not rule out a controlled water landing by someone who would have taken the aircraft off course with the intent of leaving no track.

Anything's possible. However, I would have to wonder why someone would attempt a controlled landing when they were likely going to die anyhow? It would make more sense to take yourself out or be otherwise unconscious for the final part, or nose in at high speed, than it would be to ride it out in a controlled (sort of) way, only to be sharkbait.

BUT - insanity can defy logic, though such a scenario sounds to have used plenty of logic and reason throughout.

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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 4:59 pm

Quoting davidzill (Reply 153):
I think finding the CVR and FDR and maybe some substantial aircraft wreckage is all we can hope for, for now, and that would be a best case scenario. I think that all of those finds would do is rule out some possible causes
Quoting davidzill (Reply 153):
If the CVR does not shed a bright light on what sort on incident was unfolding, we may never know why the events unfolded as they did in their totality of circumstances.
Quoting davidzill (Reply 155):
but those big RR Trents hitting the water and a substantial speed would probably cause the wings and portions of the fuselage to be ripped off the aircraft at the very least.

As noted:

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 159):
Wrong. Engine mounts are carefully designed to separate from the wing without damaging the wing structure.

There is a precisely engineered sheer bolt that protects the wings.

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ADent
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 5:00 pm

Quoting davidzill (Reply 155):
I'm sure this has been discussed already, but those big RR Trents hitting the water and a substantial speed would probably cause the wings and portions of the fuselage to be ripped off the aircraft at the very least.

The engine mounts are designed for fail before the wing structure is destroyed.

IIRC one of the Miracle on the Hudson engines was ripped off, but the wings were in good shape - at least for walking on.
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 5:09 pm

Quoting Rara (Reply 141):
call me naive but I've always thought that water landings aren't that much of a big deal (I know that the Charles Sullenberger fan club will hate me for this).

As someone has already mentioned, Sully's genius was not in performing the water landing, but in determining very quickly that it had to be done. Any other course of action after the bird strike would have likely led to many fatalities.

So *if* someone was controlling MH370 to a water landing, I would agree with you that it would likely not be that big of a deal, in and of itself.
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 5:19 pm

Quoting Trin (Reply 158):
those massive RRs coming into contact with the water would almost certainly cause the wings to rip off

As opposed to coming into contact with solid ground?


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davidzill
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 5:26 pm

Very well, I had no idea of the sheer bolt. However, the initial drag created from an engine hitting the water would probably be more than enough to cause the wing tip to dip into the ocean, which subsequently could have catastrophic loss of structural integrity, or worse, cause the aircraft to cartwheel.
 
fooflyboy
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 5:27 pm

Quoting Trin (Reply 158):
Absolutely - those massive RRs coming into contact with the water would almost certainly cause the wings to rip off,
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 164):
There is a precisely engineered sheer bolt that protects the wings.

I would imagine there are computer simulations that would illustrate this. I don't know how available they would be to most of us, but you can bet they are out there.
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 5:29 pm

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 60):
when they powered up the broken AF447 ULBs they were wildly out of spec too.

Do you have a source for that? BEA's final incident report for AF447 does not detail any anomalies with the ULB and only the CVR had a ULB still attached when they brought it up.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 126):
Modern digital recorders will have data read out and available for analysis within a few hours - provided the memory chips have not been physically broken.

I think people underestimate how robust these CSMUs are. The specifications may state "good to x depth, battery in ULB good for x days" but they have been shown in the last couple accidents to last and perform better and longer than the specifications.

Interesting that one of the safety recommendations from BEA after AF447 was to extend the battery life of a ULB to 90 days on commercial aircraft flying over maritime areas.
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ssteve
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 5:32 pm

Quoting davidzill (Reply 168):
Very well, I had no idea of the sheer bolt. However, the initial drag created from an engine hitting the water would probably be more than enough to cause the wing tip to dip into the ocean, which subsequently could have catastrophic loss of structural integrity, or worse, cause the aircraft to cartwheel.

"Wings ripping off" is implausible if an otherwise controlled aircraft dips an engine in the water.

A sudden change in the direction of a ditching aircraft is another.

You just have to realize that designating the strongest structural component of the aircraft as "ripping off" rather than the engines themselves "ripping off" is going to cause all sorts of people around here to cry foul.

It's all likely moot anyways. Hard to imagine scenarios where it was controlled at the point of impact.
 
spacecadet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 5:32 pm

Quoting Summa767 (Reply 140):
It does not. It presumes that one person able to fly a 777 is alive and conscious.

Again, that makes no sense. Unless you're arguing that the League of Doom has a secret undersea lair in the middle of the Indian Ocean, there is no reason whatsoever for any pilot - be it the actual pilot or some hijacker, and regardless of motivation - to kill everyone on board and then safely ditch the plane. Because that person's going to die anyway in that case. Or at least, that's the best case scenario for them. Worst case scenario, they'll be rescued and tried for the murder of 200+ people. And being psychotic doesn't also imply being so stupid as to not realize that. Being smart enough to successfully commandeer and fly an airplane, and kill all the passengers on board successfully, would in fact imply a level of intelligence. Even if we assume a person managed to do that, he has nothing left to live for and he would know it.

Or are you arguing that this one person somehow managed to stay alive for 7 hours while everyone else died from accidental oxygen deprivation? Was Superman on board? Why didn't he use any of his other super powers to save the other passengers?

This theory is pretty preposterous. It's false logic to say the investigations gone where it's gone and to conclude "well, anything's possible!" from that. No, it's not. It's no more possible that this airplane landed safely on the water than it is that it flew up above the atmosphere and escaped Earth's gravity.

The evidence leads where it leads. It doesn't suggest that "anything's possible". If it did, the searchers wouldn't have found these pingers to begin with, because they'd still be searching everywhere rather than where the evidence pointed them.
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nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 5:38 pm

Surely you mean "shear bolt" or "shear pin"? Sheer is something else entirely. Regardless, they'd need to withstand full forward thrust or full thrust reversers, plus a very healthy safety margin. I thought we all knew the engines are technically supposed to break off, but that type of deceleration would still be quite a problem. If the ocean wasn't perfectly calm, if the plane didn't land perfectly flat, if it wasn't as slow as practicable, it would not be a picture-perfect landing.

It's a possible scenario, but it's not the only one. Another possible scenario is impacting the ocean at high speed, SAR being deployed there delayed due to incomplete information in the onset, and now weather has moved floating debris far and wide and it simply hasn't been found yet. Equally as valid a theory, and consistent with no one "at the wheel" when the fuel runs out.
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smallRED
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 5:41 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 163):
Anything's possible. However, I would have to wonder why someone would attempt a controlled landing when they were likely going to die anyhow?

Hi. (hope the quote is correct, apologies if wrong)
Why control ditching? Perhaps the crew were really trying hard to save themselves and everyone on board...see post 263 thread 48 where the possibility of a non-terrorist, non-hijack, non-suicide/mass-murder scenario is considered.
And before you say an extremely unlikely mechanical/system failure coupled with inexplicable crew errors is more unlikely than suicide-mass-murder-hijack, check out all the past air crashes where man-machine failure was so unthinkable before the investigation results...such as a mechanical failure causing crew to put a moderrn airliner into a dynamic stall and so on...

Check out where the guessed ditching of MH370 versus current location of detected pings....

From post263T48: "Can someone try to intersect the dawn line with the southward path? That will be where the aircraft would have turned east and continued till it crosses the south "ping" corridor, and continue for a few more minutes (not till fuel exhaustion as Captain would have wanted to have power to control the ditching). My estimate is its between Australia and Indonesia, heading towards the Timor Sea (but i could be wrong)."

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CO953
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 5:42 pm

Just a quibble, seeing that the thread has turned to the possibility of successful ditching.

What are the chances that Sully could have successfully pulled off US1549 on a moonless night, during a NYC blackout?
 
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ssteve
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 5:42 pm

Quoting moose135 (Reply 167):
As opposed to coming into contact with solid ground?

It's not obvious from the SFO ANA 777 crash photos, but I believe both engines separated after the ultimate impact and skid, and skidded along with the airframe. The wings, however, didn't go anywhere.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 5:45 pm

Quoting canoecarrier (Reply 170):
Do you have a source for that? BEA's final incident report for AF447 does not detail any anomalies with the ULB and only the CVR had a ULB still attached when they brought it up.

Sure. http://www.bea.aero/fr/enquetes/vol....447/cvr.ulb.examination.report.pdf

They minimally repaired it and found it quite wildly out of spec. They repaired it further and found it closer to spec.

The "out of spec" measurements they report are in line with the lower acoustic frequency we heard from the Australians.
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rc135x
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 5:46 pm

Quoting Trin (Reply 158):
Does anybody have links to records of what the ocean conditions were in the precise area of the current SAR efforts on the day the plane went missing?


A key part of this argument is that the decision to fly the mystery profile to the current search area was made with a priori knowledge of the sea conditions. This led the person flying to conclude that a safe ditching (and hence disappearance) was possible.

As Trin properly points out, what were the forecast sea conditions 6-8 hours before ditching? How accessible was that information to the person planning the ditching?

As Moose135 notes, the engines are not a show-stopper for ditching.
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David L
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 6:07 pm

Quoting moose135 (Reply 167):
As opposed to coming into contact with solid ground?

To be fair, the landing gear was extended in the BA38 accident. An optimistic salesman adopting the buzzword of the day might call it a subprime landing.

Quoting Summa767 (Reply 146):
As I have *already* said, the current search area has more benevolent waters than the previous search area.

Have you not seen the pictures? Looks pretty calm to me.

It looks pretty calm to me, as well, but what was the sea state there at the time MH370 came down? Even if it was that calm, I wouldn't have thought it likely that any person(s) responsible could have been sure of that in advance. All that planning only to hope the weather In the Middle of Nowhere would be suitable?

Edit: Yeah, what rc135x said:

Quoting rc135x (Reply 178):
A key part of this argument is that the decision to fly the mystery profile to the current search area was made with a priori knowledge of the sea conditions. This led the person flying to conclude that a safe ditching (and hence disappearance) was possible.

Sorry, I hadn't realised 20 minutes had elapsed while I was composing my reply - I was side-tracked by a noisy neighbour.  Angry

[Edited 2014-04-09 11:16:11]
 
Summa767
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 6:18 pm

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 172):
It's no more possible that this airplane landed safely on the water than it is that it flew up above the atmosphere and escaped Earth's gravity.

That's your sort of logic alright.

Quoting CO953 (Reply 175):
What are the chances that Sully could have successfully pulled off US1549 on a moonless night, during a NYC blackout?

Undoubtedly bad odds in pitch dark. So just as well it was daylight.
Darkness would not be an issue in the scenario of a ditching of MH370. The last half-ping was received at 0019 GMT, daylight in the search area:
http://www.timeanddate.com/worldcloc...ay=8&year=2014&hour=0&min=18&sec=0

[Edited 2014-04-09 11:22:10]
 
747megatop
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 6:32 pm

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 161):
This may take years and years to figure out, or we may never know.

I think the MH 370 incident is the most challenging, perplexing and intruiging mystery in recent times perhaps. Hopefully they will recover the FDR & CVR to shed light.

But, if someone popped the circuit breakers on those like the SilkAir incident then we would never know what really happened. In this case is there a possibility of at least lowering a UAV to the wreckage and taking photos of what's left of the cockpit to determine who was flying the plane?

The worst outcome of course is if they cannot find the wreckage at all; hopefully this will be the least likely outcome. Every one of us wants the wreckage to be found and let's hope for it.
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 6:43 pm

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 177):
They minimally repaired it and found it quite wildly out of spec. They repaired it further and found it closer to spec.

They repaired and tested one, which is not what you originally said, because they only had one.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 60):
when they powered up the broken AF447 ULBs they were wildly out of spec too.

My read of that report is they said the one they had was nonfunctional rather than "wildly out of spec". I think it unlikely that both would have had this fault, "very low value of the pulse level".
The beatings will continue until morale improves
 
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Moose135
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 6:46 pm

Quoting David L (Reply 179):
An optimistic salesman adopting the buzzword of the day might call it a subprime landing.

Any landing you can walk away from...
 
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nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 6:47 pm

Quoting canoecarrier (Reply 182):
They repaired and tested one, which is not what you originally said, because they only had one.

Yup and I was corrected on that and that's fine. I didn't know they only recovered one, but apparently I only read about the one, and misspoke. Accidents happen apparently, eh?

Quoting canoecarrier (Reply 182):
My read of that report is they said the one they had was nonfunctional rather than "wildly out of spec". I think it unlikely that both would have had this fault, "very low value of the pulse level".

They powered it up and found it was out of spec... Almost as far as the Australian reports... I don't know what else to tell you, are you suggesting the Australians are hearing ghosts or that it's impossible for an ULB to be out of spec after an accident? I really wouldn't know. All I'm trying to do is find possibilities for why the ULB frequency would be so far from what it's built and rated for.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 6:50 pm

Quoting CO953 (Reply 175):
What are the chances that Sully could have successfully pulled off US1549 on a moonless night, during a NYC blackout?

It appears Malaysia and Perth are in same time. If Inmarsat timeline is correct, this didn't crash/ditch on a moonless light. It probably happened sometime between 8:11AM-8:19AM.

[Edited 2014-04-09 12:08:54]
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David L
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 6:54 pm

Quoting moose135 (Reply 183):
Any landing you can walk away from..

Ditto for mortgages.  
 
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TheRedBaron
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 7:03 pm

IMHO, the probability of a successful water "landing" is less than .1 percent so 1 in a thousand, why?

Night time
No power
Limited hydraulics
2 really big engines that would make it virtually imposible to make it smooth.
No Moon
PROBABLY swells of 1 to 3 meters and the impossibility to align with them due to low light.

Also... even if they had the luck of having both engines separated by the drag the chance of them breaking off at the same time is very low, so a cartwheel of the whole aircraft and breakup is a real possibility. Even Asiana 777 did a cartwheel in SFO. and it crashed almost flat to the ground.

Still believe a lot of info has been suppressed from this incident....

Back to put my tin foil hat, and to wait...

TRB
The best seat in a Plane is the Jumpseat.
 
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7BOEING7
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 7:05 pm

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 181):
But, if someone popped the circuit breakers on those like the SilkAir incident then we would never know what really happened.

Those CB's are not in the cockpit so they're a little harder to pull. As long as anybody in the cockpit didn't make any noise in the last 2 hours of flight, except for any warnings/other airplane noises the CVR won't tell us who was up there anyway.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 7:07 pm

Quoting Theredbaron (Reply 187):
Night time

Wasn't actually at night time.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
65mustang
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 7:08 pm

Marine traffic indicates that HMS Echo is on its way to join Ocean Shield. Its about halfway there and Ocean Shield has slowed to 1.6 knts.
 
MSY-MSP
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 7:21 pm

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 190):
Marine traffic indicates that HMS Echo is on its way to join Ocean Shield. Its about halfway there and Ocean Shield has slowed to 1.6 knts.

This would seem to me that they are getting fairly close to deploying the Bluefin21. The reason I say this is that I believe that Echo has more equipment onboard for handling the seafloor mapping than Ocean Shield. That coupled with the desire to keep as much traffic out of the area for acoustic reasons tells me that they have significantly narrowed the area.

Also Ocean Shield slowing down is indicative of the boxing in approach.
 
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7BOEING7
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 7:22 pm

Quoting Theredbaron (Reply 187):
IMHO, the probability of a successful water "landing" is less than .1 percent so 1 in a thousand, why?

If a pilot was still at the controls, I'd say closer to 50%:

Suns up
Fuel has not been exhausted so electrical/hydraulic power is still available
Speed just above stick shaker with full flaps
IO is smooth as a lake
Wings are level
 
Trin
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 7:25 pm

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 190):
Ocean Shield has slowed to 1.6 knts.

Probably means they're still towing the pinger locator.

Hopefully means they have something interesting.....

I ma so ready for this to be solved.
 
David L
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 7:25 pm

 
dtw2hyd
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 7:31 pm

Quoting MSY-MSP (Reply 191):
This would seem to me that they are getting fairly close to deploying the Bluefin21. The reason I say this is that I believe that Echo has more equipment onboard for handling the seafloor mapping than Ocean Shield. That coupled with the desire to keep as much traffic out of the area for acoustic reasons tells me that they have significantly narrowed the area.

Bluefin does only low-res mapping. You still need HMS Echo to do localized high-res mapping.
All posts are just opinions.
 
Summa767
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 7:31 pm

Quoting Theredbaron (Reply 187):
2 really big engines that would make it virtually imposible to make it smooth.

As it has been explained, the engines are designed to come off if under enough force. It would definitely not be smooth, but it does not mean it can't result with the fuselage in one piece - or at least not scattered pieces.

Quoting Theredbaron (Reply 187):
No Moon

Who needs the moon when you have the sun?

Quoting Theredbaron (Reply 187):
PROBABLY swells of 1 to 3 meters and the impossibility to align with them due to low light.

We don't know how smooth or rough the sea was. Currently it is very calm.
No problem with light, as it was morning.

The light issue has been discussed in the last few posts, so makes no sense to repeat a false assumption yet again.
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 7:36 pm

Quoting Summa767 (Reply 146):
As I have *already* said, the current search area has more benevolent waters than the previous search area.
Quoting David L (Reply 179):
It looks pretty calm to me, as well, but what was the sea state there at the time MH370 came down? Even if it was that calm, I wouldn't have thought it likely that any person(s) responsible could have been sure of that in advance. All that planning only to hope the weather In the Middle of Nowhere would be suitable?

  
Let's get real. At the presumed time of impact, there were 3 metre (10 foot) waves with a cross swell. Forget a "soft" landing - not even a Short or Sunderland could handle that.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 7:42 pm

Quoting Theredbaron (Reply 187):
No power
Limited hydraulics

Assuming the engines ran out of fuel and the generators went off, the aircraft would still have battery power for a little while, and I'm not sure about the 777 but I'm pretty sure they have electrical hydraulic pumps

Not saying they did ditch or if that makes sense, just wanted to clarify
 
Lizzie
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 7:47 pm

Seriously, although I do understand that nothing makes a lot of sense in this case, why would you wait until fuel was just about to run out before attempting a skilled ditching?

Surely the very fact that the endpoint of the flight seems to coincide with the end of fuel supply (and as I understand it, that was one of the factors that led to the relocation of the search area to a site that corresponded to a slower Southern leg, to allow for a faster western leg) suggests catastrophic rather than controlled ditching.

[Edited 2014-04-09 12:50:03]
 
jcxroberts
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 52

Wed Apr 09, 2014 7:47 pm

Sully has never portrayed himself as a superman, he has mostly used his platform to further pilots interests and aviation understanding in general. He's made a little money out of it which is fine too but he is far from wealthy.

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