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YoungMans
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Sun Apr 13, 2014 11:47 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 54):


Quoting Lizzie (Reply 24):
It's important to remember are looking at an extremely rare event (frequency = 1 in the history of civil aviation, i.e. p=1/gazillion.

Just because this event (MH370) is extremely rare doesn't mean that extremely improbable events are more likely to have happen. Outlandish scenarios are still outlandish whether you have 1 MH370 in history or 1 MH370 per month.

No, not all possible scenarios should be held to the same standard

They say that..:
'Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence..!'
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Sun Apr 13, 2014 11:51 pm

Quoting sipadan (Reply 98):

accept you left off the last part of the quote, so the lack of precision seems to be a problem that you struggle with as well.

You asked (in your own words):

Quoting sipadan (Reply 94):
What are 'all the conditions which Pihero wrote in the same sentence'?

So, I responded. Did you forget what you asked?

I'm going back to building my spherical staircase - helix ceiling meets curved wall - empirical, evidence based, intellectually and physically challenging.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Sun Apr 13, 2014 11:56 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 93):
scenarrii

Hey, this might be silly, but I just want to let you know that you're hypercorrecting here. Scenarii might be the plural in Italian or by extension French but in English it is "scenarios". I know it's dumb to point it out but I thought you would like to know...
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
art
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 12:03 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 97):
...although your opinion seems to matter much more than most, at least in your own opinion.

Interesting form of words.
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 12:15 am

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 27):

I'd also like to thank Summa767 for the particularly nasty PM he sent to remind me of my low intelligence and other shortcomings. Does anyone know if there's a way of blocking PMs?

I'd just reply in a similar way, maybe taking it up one notch   I would love to get such a message, but the only ones I get are from others thanking me for taking it to somebody else  
Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 99):
Quoting sipadan (Reply 97):
You may want to check your respect rating (0) against Pihero's (76). It's called evidence.

That comment made my morning! Are there any other forums where such a rating exists? There may be but out of the dozen or so forums I participate in I have not seen it before. I have also not seen as many ego driven posts in any other forum... I wonder if there is a correlation, or if I will get flamed for using the word correlation?  

Now, back to the real world...

The latest articles I can find about the use of the Bluefin-21 indicate that it should be used soon - some on here might have already expected this to occur. Given that the use of the Bluefin-21 is the next step in locating any possible wreckage, I wonder when this is likely to commence? After all, it has been a few days since the last 'pings' were heard. Angus Houston first said (after hearing the first two series of pings) that the trigger to launch Bluefin-21 would be hearing more pings. After not hearing subsequent pings for a day or so they did eventually get more pings thus meeting the 'trigger' to launch Bluefin-21. I know they are still narrowing down the deployment area but when do you think we will see Bluefin-21 in action? Having eyes down there, whilst being slow moving eyes, is IMO the only way we might get visual confirmation of wreckage as I doubt they will find any floating around now...
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11Bravo
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 12:19 am

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 99):
In the opinion of many members of a.net. You may want to check your respect rating (0) against Pihero's (76). It's called evidence.

I generally agree with your points here on the forum, but your suggestion that someone's RR is evidence of support and validity is troublesome. The RR on these forums is nothing more than a popularity contest. I have seen more than a few users over the years that have high RR numbers and yet it's quite clear they don't know what they're talking about on a given subject. Happens all the time. I'm not suggesting that's true in this case with regard to Pihero, but reliance on the almighty RR is tiresome at best.
WhaleJets Rule!
 
FLY744
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 12:37 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 104):
Now, back to the real world...

I am intrigued that today's sonar buoy search area seems to have been moved back to where the Chinese first reported hearing pings suspected being from the ULB.

http://www.jacc.gov.au/media/releases/2014/april/mr021.aspx

Meanwhile Ocean Shield and still trolling around the northwestern edge of the Zenith Plateau (as shown by Marine Traffic).
Aviation in itself is not inherently dangerous.
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 12:53 am

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 105):
your suggestion that someone's RR is evidence of support and validity is troublesome. The RR on these forums is nothing more than a popularity contest.
Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 105):
reliance on the almighty RR is tiresome at best.

Well said.

Quoting FLY744 (Reply 106):
I am intrigued that today's sonar buoy search area seems to have been moved back to where the Chinese first reported hearing pings suspected being from the ULB.

http://www.jacc.gov.au/media/releases/2014/april/mr021.aspx

Meanwhile Ocean Shield and still trolling around the northwestern edge of the Zenith Plateau (as shown by Marine Traffic).

Is it also the Ocean Shield that will deploy the Bluefin-21?



It looks like the Media is getting very desperate:

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/201...05/50/mh370-flown-like-fighter-jet

"The missing Malaysia Airlines jet was "thrown around like a jet fighter" in a bid to dodge radar after it lost contact with authorities, Malaysian military investigators believe.

Flight MH370 is thought to have climbed to 45,000ft – 10,000ft above its normal altitude – before dropping to 5000ft and continuing to fly low at high speed, a source close to the investigation told Britain's Sunday Times.

The drastic manoeuvres required to perform such a sudden drop in altitude suggest the Boeing 777 was deliberately trying to avoid radar signals and vanish, the source said.

The new lead adds weight to the theory Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah hijacked his own plane after tricking his co-pilot into leaving the cockpit and then locking the door. "
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kurtjeter
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 12:56 am

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 99):
Quoting sipadan (Reply 97): although your opinion seems to matter much more than most, at least in your own opinion. In the opinion of many members of a.net. You may want to check your respect rating (0) against Pihero's (76). It's called evidence.

Gosh, guys, since we all just can't "get along," . . . all in favor of just ignoring Sipadan ....?
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 12:57 am

It appears China is thinking of deploying their manned deep-sea submersible Jiaolong. Jiaolong and its mother ship, Xiang Yang Hong 9, are docked at the National Deep Sea Center in Qingdao, Shandong.

How long it will take for the ship to reach search area from Qingdao, Shandong?
All posts are just opinions.
 
hivue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 12:57 am

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 100):
They say that..:
'Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence..!'

Concerning this whole event absolutely everything --claims, evidence and anything else you care to name -- is extraordinary.

Lizzie appears partial to a Bayesian approach but the priors are all over the place and the liklihoods a total mystery.

[Edited 2014-04-13 18:02:19]
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
ltbewr
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 12:58 am

I am becoming very concerned as to the loss of MH370 if we will ever come to an understanding of what happened and why. The apparent death of the CVR/FDR search batteries, the likely depth of the remains of the a/c, the lack of precise knowledge of where the a/c flew and ended up, the controversies and incompetency of governments and military forces involved, the apparently controlled route for at least the first 1 hour and 40 minutes of this flight, just creates more horror of this loss and being able to deal with it.
We must continue to support trying as best as possible to locate the recorders and remains of the aircraft to find out what happened. Perhaps with some dumb luck, application of new and advanced technology, the use of the best minds in deep underwater searches as done with AF 447, we may finally get the independent evidence of what happened. I fear not finding significant evidence will just encourage conspiracy theories dominating the thinking of what happened. That is not good for the families of the victims or how to prevent a similar situation of a loss of an aircraft in the future.
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 1:08 am

Quoting hivue (Reply 110):
Concerning this whole event absolutely everything --claims, evidence and anything else you care to name -- is extraordinary.

Not really... I wouldn't consider a mechanical failure or a hijacking/suicide "extraordinary." Rare, yes, but not extraordinary. Some of the claims thrown around here are indeed extraordinary and some are using the fact that this flight is already so bizarre so a bizarre/extraordinary explanation becomes more likely. Nope
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 1:09 am

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 109):
It appears China is thinking of deploying their manned deep-sea submersible Jiaolong. Jiaolong and its mother ship, Xiang Yang Hong 9, are docked at the National Deep Sea Center in Qingdao, Shandong.

I'm not sure what type of equipment China has in terms of what is required for this type of mission, but, given all the noise China has made and given how many Chinese citizens were on board, I am surprised to learn that they are only now 'thinking' of deploying something that might be of use.

Quoting ltbewr (Reply 111):
I am becoming very concerned as to the loss of MH370 if we will ever come to an understanding of what happened and why.

As I keep wondering what happened to MH370, I remind myself we don't even know where MH370 is! I think the focus should be on first finding out the where - the final resting place of MH370 - otherwise we will never know what happened... There is a lot more talk about what might have happened, and I myself am guilty of a lot of such talk, but if we never find out where it is then all this talk about what happened will never stop or be confirmed...

[Edited 2014-04-13 18:11:30]
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sipadan
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 1:13 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 104):
You may want to check your respect rating (0) against Pihero's (76). It's called evidence.

ah, yes, the mighty untouchables. Unassailable information, teflon by default, for it is us, the almighty ones. To be so jaded by status, status, status…

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 101):
I'm going back to building my spherical staircase - helix ceiling meets curved wall - empirical, evidence based, intellectually and physically challenging.

oh, well…thanks so much for the graciousness you have bestowed upon me with your allotted time. And maybe, instead of your spherical staircase, your time would be better spent creating a PLAUSIBLE reconstruction of MH370, one where an accident of some sort has caused this event. But making something out of nothing, well that's a challenge, and one that you will with dogged determination fail to meet. Because the facts, the evidence, the very stuff that you purport to guide you, they emphatically tell a story of INTENT and CONTROL…but you choose to see only from the catbird seat of smugness and ignorance…and I hope you will apologize to the 238 families whose loved ones have been murdered. Talk about moral relativism.
 
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Dalavia
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 1:28 am

Quoting FLY744 (Reply 106):
I am intrigued that today's sonar buoy search area seems to have been moved back to where the Chinese first reported hearing pings suspected being from the ULB.

http://www.jacc.gov.au/media/releases/2014/april/mr021.aspx

Meanwhile Ocean Shield and still trolling around the northwestern edge of the Zenith Plateau (as shown by Marine Traffic).

For a week now we have had the small (600 sq.km) sonobuoy search area that is far away from two larger search areas to the WNW.

I understand the need to keep other vessels away from the sonobuoy search area to keep the noise levels down. However, I don't understand why there are two separate search areas to the WNW that have remained fairly stagnant for a week.

If I understand the currents in the area, any debris from the sonobuoy zone (which is presumably the most likely source area for debris) is likely to have moved broadly into that zone, having been pushed by the prevailing ocean current. Therefore, I think I can conclude that the ships are still looking for debris rather than simply drifting aimlessly in a way that keeps their noisy engines away from the sonobuoy zone.

However, that leads me to ask - why are there two separate, distinct zones?

[Edited 2014-04-13 18:31:30]
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 1:33 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 114):
And maybe, instead of your spherical staircase, your time would be better spent creating a PLAUSIBLE reconstruction of MH370, one where an accident of some sort has caused this event.

I've suggested several possibilities - all backed up by statistical evidence.

Quoting sipadan (Reply 114):
but you choose to see only from the catbird seat of smugness and ignorance

Ignorance - please enlighten me! Cicero - whom you profess to be conversant with (in the original Latin I presume) - once remarked that only the ignorant argue with insults.

Quoting sipadan (Reply 114):
I hope you will apologize to the 238 families whose loved ones have been murdered.

I have no reason to. In my mind (unlike yours), all possibilities are open. I will be extraordinarily sad if the incident was the result of a deliberate act. I will be extraordinarily sad if it's the result of flight crew error. I will be extraordinarily sad if it was the result of an aircraft/equipment malfunction. In the meantime, I'm waiting for evidence of any of these things, instead of speculating that only one of them is true.

Are you really a physician (as your profile states)? Do you treat patients on the basis of speculation, or evidence?

Back to the stair case.

[Edited 2014-04-13 18:36:10]
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 1:52 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 114):

Given that you said (below):

Quoting sipadan (Reply 98):
accept you left off the last part of the quote, so the lack of precision seems to be a problem that you struggle with as well.

And, you miss-quoted me (below) when in fact it was not me making the RR comparison (it was Kaiarahi) which I disagreed with anyway:

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 104):
Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 99):
Quoting sipadan (Reply 97):
You may want to check your respect rating (0) against Pihero's (76). It's called evidence.
Quoting sipadan (Reply 114):
Quoting 777Jet (Reply 104):
You may want to check your respect rating (0) against Pihero's (76). It's called evidence.

ah, yes, the mighty untouchables. Unassailable information, teflon by default, for it is us, the almighty ones. To be so jaded by status, status, status…

You might want to get your own quotes correct before accusing others of having a problem with a 'lack of precision' that you yourself seem to struggle with!  
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sipadan
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 1:53 am

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 116):
Are you really a physician (as your profile states)? Do you treat patients on the basis of speculation, or evidence?

yes, I REALLY am a physician. And I am someone that lived in Malaysia for 5 years. Speculation is at times called for as a sort of tertiary component. It is needed often in the formation of a 'most probable' diagnosis, when treatment is necessary but a disease process or ailment has not been conclusively identified (which is often the case). To NEVER speculate would be derelict in the compilation of a diagnosis, apparently not the case in the disappearance of a t777.
 
Backseater
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 2:19 am

"Piloted by some entity theory": may be the smoking gun?

Quoting Pihero (Reply 76):
Quoting BackSeater (Reply 66):
- do you believe the slide published by china.org.cn entitled "Military radar plot from Pulau Perak to last plot at 02:22H" with label "Time - 02:22H 295R 200nm from Butterworth AB" is genuine?

I don't recall such a slide. Please repost.

The snapshot of the slide I initially worked from to build my theory of a climb from very low level to cruise west of Penang with a shallow followed by a steeper rate of climb (my previous posts #112 in thread 43 and #178 in 44) is in fact a different snapshot of the same slide presented by

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 77):
Military radar plot from Pulau Perak to last plot at 02:22h (Malaysian time)

The slide of Finn350 is much more informative than mine (actually it is fantastic!) because it has another data block on the left hand side whereas mine was blocked off by another attendee standing up while trying to also capture a snapshot of the same slide. The new data block says:
"Time 02 02H Perak Island 279R 89nm from Butterworth AB"

Quoting Pihero (Reply 93):
With Finn350's post ( Thanks !), that *radar contact* was positioned at 200nm from Butterworth on the radial 285.
See if it fits any of nthe trajectories I discussed above.
Please do the maths.

Ok. Let me do some very simple arithmetic:
(200-89) = 111nm in (02:22 - 02:02)=20 min

What average speed is that? 333kts

Seems quite consistent with my climb scenario that was just the 3rd step in an evasive strategy by some capable entity. The average speed seems reasonable for a climb (pilots can confirm?) and the intermittent radar returns from the huge T7 RCS are explained by the race condition between the a/c rate of climb and the rate of climb of the radar horizon (minimum radar visibility altitude).
 
747megatop
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 2:22 am

Quoting kurtjeter (Reply 108):

Gosh, guys, since we all just can't "get along," . . . all in favor of just ignoring Sipadan ....?

I second that. If we don't then it is going to spiral out of control and mods are going to lock this thread probably.
 
sipadan
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 2:48 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 117):
You might want to get your own quotes correct before accusing others of having a problem with a 'lack of precision' that you yourself seem to struggle with!  

yes…that quote was inadvertently attributed to you and it was unintentional and I apologize.

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 120):
I second that. If we don't then it is going to spiral out of control and mods are going to lock this thread probably.

I've been posting on here since the very beginning of MH370 and have had a few emotional exchanges. IT has yet to 'spiral out of control' as many others on here can attest to. Contentious for brief stretches, yes, out of control, no. You are free to do as you choose, but it would nice to see some fair-mindedness. The insult hurling, if that's the grounds on which you argue, has been 2 way, so why are some exempt and some not. I can only feel that this would be based on a perceived level of contribution, and that would be a very slippery slope.
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 3:09 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 121):
I've been posting on here since the very beginning of MH370 and have had a few emotional exchanges.

I too have had a few 'emotional exchanges' in these MH370 threads. I have been browsing this site for years but it was something about the MH370 incident that made me join - something about the headline 'Boeing 777 missing' sounded big / game changing and MH370 is indeed big news. I hope for everyone, especially the families / friends of those on board, that enough of the plane or the boxes will be located and there will be some answers. I can't imagine how many people will feel (even most of us in here) if nothing is ever found. I can't imagine thinking "what happened to MH370?" everyday for the rest of my life if nothing is found. Let's all try to get along and keep the debates healthy instead of turning them into heated arguments and hope that something is found soon... Have a nice day everyone! I hope to hear that the Bluefin-21 has started its search soon...
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Kaiarahi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 3:13 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 121):
why are some exempt and some not

Some have earned respect for years of knowlegable, expert and informed responses. Some haven't.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
vnangia
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 3:16 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 122):

                                       x 1000
 
YoungMans
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 3:35 am

Maybe it’s time to bring in at least a little bit of humour into what is otherwise a very tragic saga.
If you go to these sites ...
http://galacticchannelings.com/english/matthew20-03-14.html
http://galacticchannelings.com/english/matthew02-04-14.html
.... you’ll find a whole different spin on the disappearance of MH370.

Let’s just hope they are not right. In fact, as long as there is no wreckage found, data recorders or any other solid evidence, that theory is (heavens forbid) as valid as any other.
‘One cannot prove a negative’, they say in science.

(And please, pretty please – don’t shoot [me] the messenger.)

On a more serious note though ...
I find the ‘conversation’ amongst the professionals in these threads very informative and educational. That’s why I have joined and even contributed; in the hope that my little ‘snippet of a thought’ might help those who do know in there considerations and way of thinking.

Cheers,
Young Mans.

[Edited 2014-04-13 20:43:57]
 
LTC8K6
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 3:36 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 122):

Yes.

Let's all calm down and remember that there were 239 people on that plane, with families wondering and waiting.

We all want the same thing. Speculation is all we have at the moment and it's frustrating. Don't take things personally. Let's all try to work together.
 
KBUF
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 4:01 am

Australian authorities holding a press conference right now. It's on CNN.
 
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Moose135
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 4:02 am

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 123):
Some have earned respect for years of knowlegable, expert and informed responses. Some haven't.

And I think everyone needs to step back, take a breath, and consider the direction this thread is going and how they are contributing to it. The newbies should bear in mind that we have some experienced members with much to offer and the old heads should set a good example of how to treat one another around here. There has been more than enough sniping from all sides. As has been said - there are 239 people lost here.

[Edited 2014-04-13 21:05:06]
KC-135 - Passing gas and taking names!
 
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Dalavia
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 4:05 am

Quoting KBUF (Reply 127):
Australian authorities holding a press conference right now. It's on CNN.

It is also just starting now on ABC News 24.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/
 
laxboeingman
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 4:15 am

MAIN POINTS FROM WHAT I HEARD (Sorry if I am missing anything):

He said that an oil slick was found, but it will take about two days before it gets to shore. When it gets to land, it will be analyzed. He also said that Ocean Shield will be deploying the autonomous vehicle and stop towing the pinger detection device because it is day 38 and the batteries are supposed to work for 30. He said each mission the vehicle is sent on will take a minimum of 24 hours to complete because it takes two hours to get to the floor, two hours to get back and it will take four hours to "download and analyze the data," therefore allowing 16 hours of searching.

He also mentioned, repeatedly, that they may not find anything and that the oil slick may not be from the plane, but that the pings that were detected are the best lead so far.

[Edited 2014-04-13 21:16:38]
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11Bravo
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 4:41 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 130):
He also mentioned, repeatedly, that they may not find anything and that the oil slick may not be from the plane, but that the pings that were detected are the best lead so far.

We may be in for a very, very long search before we see any results. I hope those pings last week were real and I hope they got some kind of ballpark location.  
WhaleJets Rule!
 
panampaul
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 4:47 am

Angus Houston now says that the search for the black boxes is over and it's time ot go underwater. He also reported an oil slick was found.

Flight 370: Black Box Search Ends Without Success, ‘Time to Go Underwater’ - Oil Slick Found in Search Area Could Be Additional Lead

Quote:
After almost a week without pings from the ill-fated Malaysia Airlines 777, Australian officials said that the search for signals from the emergency beacons from the aircraft’s black boxes will end and that it is time to deploy an underwater vehicle.

“We haven’t had a signal in six days, “ said Angus Houston, who heads the Joint Agency Coordination Centre that is running the search, at a news conference Monday. “It’s time to go underwater.” ...

.
 
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Dalavia
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 4:53 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 130):
He also mentioned, repeatedly, that they may not find anything and that the oil slick may not be from the plane, but that the pings that were detected are the best lead so far.

On the positive side, while acknowledging it will take a couple of days to analyse the oil slick, he did say that it was thought that the oil slick had not come from any of the ships.
 
NAV30
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 5:43 am

Pretty comprehensive summary of the current situation here. Among other things, it says that the remote-control sub will take about 24 hours for each round trip. And that the oil slick only consisted of two litres of oil. It also implies that the aeroplane appears to have been 'thrown about' quite a lot before the crash:-

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/22622328/mh370-thrown-around-like-a-fighter-jet/
 
canoecarrier
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 5:54 am

If the plane supposedly ran out of fuel how much unburned fuel could be left to create an oil slick big enough to last 38 days and a few storms?
The beatings will continue until morale improves
 
Backseater
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 5:55 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 135):
And that the oil slick only consisted of two litres of oil.

I think Angus Houston said that they took a 2 litre sample to be analyzed on land.
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:02 am

Quoting canoecarrier (Reply 136):
If the plane supposedly ran out of fuel how much unburned fuel could be left to create an oil slick big enough to last 38 days and a few storms?

I would suppose engine oil lasts longer than aviation jet fuel, but let's see what the analysis tells us.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 135):
Pretty comprehensive summary of the current situation here.

According to the article, the submersible can cover 40 sq.km a day, so it would take around two weeks to cover the whole 600 sq.km. underwater search area. I suppose they have an idea of the most probable locations based on the four ping acquisitions, so it might not take that long. Let's hope they will find the wreckage.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:03 am

Quoting canoecarrier (Reply 136):
If the plane supposedly ran out of fuel how much unburned fuel could be left to create an oil slick big enough to last 38 days and a few storms?

What little Jet A1 was there would have evaporated by now. The oil slick would be something else.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
NAV30
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:07 am

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 138):
According to the article, the submersible can cover 40 sq.km a day, so it would take around two weeks to cover the whole 600 sq.km. underwater search area.

Might be longer, Finn350. I read somewhere that the sub can carry EITHER sonar OR cameras, but not both together!
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:14 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 140):
Might be longer, Finn350. I read somewhere that the sub can carry EITHER sonar OR cameras, but not both together!

Yes, but as I understand it they will use sonar to find the wreckage (hopefully) and then switch to cameras.

Apparently some parts of the underwater search area are deeper than the maximum service depth of 4,500 m of the submersible. If the wreckage is there the search gets more complicated.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:32 am

Unless they get lucky, we'll be here a while.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
Lizzie
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:35 am

Quoting Pihero (Reply 93):
May I ask - AGAIN what these *factors* arez?

I listed them in my post, and you quoted them in yours.


There's an intelligent system aright, but - my question - Was it still being controlled or was it left on its own


We don't know. But the relative frequencies of incidents of pilot suicide on commercial flights vs incidents involving consumer product batteries isn't going to be the same as the relative probabilities of controlled vs uncontrolled guidance.

That's why I keep bringing up Bayesian statistics: given the behaviour of the aircraft, how likely is one kind of explanation vs another?



This is a very simplistic approach to the puzzle :
It's about the architecture around which an aircraft is buil and flies :

PILOT --> INTERFACE and CONTROL --> SYSTEMS and MANAGEMENT --> COMMANDS --> AIRCRAFT ACTIONS

Forget the different loops that need to be introduced, it's very simplistic... but a lot less than some of the despicable utterrances I've seen on this thread : it rerquires an open mlind and the desire to know more about aviation instead of re-hashing scenarrii hoping to have them on a Hollywood movie.


Well, I'm not familiar enough with the scenarii-hashing to comment, but speaking personally, my interest in the Hollywood movie dimension couldn't be less. I guess my interest in it is as a scientist, triggered of course by my interest in it as a human being.

Clearly the plane being piloted by someone with malign intent is a possible explanation for the behaviour of the plane, and in some respects more parsimonious than accident, seeing as there were human beings (intelligent beings) on the plane, and accidents on the whole don't tend to leave vehicles able to be carefully steered until fuel exhaustion. Yes there is one example, but its unmanned trajectory, as far as I know, was a lot simpler than the apparent intelligent trajectory of MH370.
 
Pihero
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:37 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 102):
I know it's dumb to point it out but I thought you would like to know...

But I do know, but I don't nreally care about uninformed abuse of the words : like*data* is the plural of *datum*, *loci* is the plural of *locus*... and *taliban* is the plural of *talib*... etc ...
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nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:47 am

Quoting Pihero (Reply 144):
But I do know, but I don't nreally care about uninformed abuse of the words : like*data* is the plural of *datum*, *loci* is the plural of *locus*... and *taliban* is the plural of *talib*... etc ...

And fish is the plural of fish! English is weird, but in the case of "scenario", it does stick to traditional rules.

There are more exceptions than there are rules, and we can construct impossible to parse sentences like "James while John had had had had had had had had had had had a better effect on the teacher" that nonetheless make sense when you understand them.

English is a language that takes all of the bad parts of the languages it cannibalizes and none of the good parts. 

But, unfortunately, "scenarios" is the plural form of "scenario"... I digress, it's not important, people understand you, you're just such a stickler for truth I thought you'd like to know.

edit: Thanks to my Canadian Education (tm) I did learn a bit of French, I am terrible at it though and can barely get an idea across to any native speaker and my limited vocabulary really hurts me, but I still found it quite elegant in that exceptions to the rules are somewhat rare... I found the basics quite easy to learn. I really should try to improve my French. I was pretty young and what I found most amusing is that unlike English, who like to swear with words relating to sex, or Germans who like to swear with words relating to bodily functions, the French like to swear with words relating to religion! So do the Czechs, to an extent.

[Edited 2014-04-13 23:55:55]
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
Lizzie
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:50 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 118):
yes, I REALLY am a physician. And I am someone that lived in Malaysia for 5 years. Speculation is at times called for as a sort of tertiary component. It is needed often in the formation of a 'most probable' diagnosis, when treatment is necessary but a disease process or ailment has not been conclusively identified (which is often the case). To NEVER speculate would be derelict in the compilation of a diagnosis, apparently not the case in the disappearance of a t777.

Yes, exactly. I'm not a physician, but I am a scientist, and I've been trying to make the same point - that science (or diagnostics) is an iterative process - you don't "test everything" first, then make a definitive diagnosis. What you test for depends on your provisional diagnosis, and you don't get that without "speculating". Except I wouldn't call it that. I'd call it fitting models to data then using those models to generate new predictive hypotheses.
 
Backseater
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 7:13 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 145):
I did learn a bit of French, I am terrible at it though and can barely get an idea across to any native speaker and my limited vocabulary really hurts me, but I still found it quite elegant in that exceptions to the rules are somewhat rare...

May I suggest you buy a guide to French pronunciation or a copy of the Beycherelle!
 
YoungMans
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 7:21 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 139):
What little Jet A1 was there would have evaporated by now. The oil slick would be something else.

Yes, any Jet A1 (i.e. kerosene) would have definitely evaporated and dispersed by now in the conditions where they are working.

Any oil slick is indeed something else. If it was a few tens or even hundreds of litres, all draining at once, that oil would have dispersed too by now, I reckon, at least to the point where it wouldn't have been recognised or noticed.

It is possible, though, that hydraulic lines or even ordinary oil pipes and hoses are slowly draining and there is a continuous flow of oil or hydraulic fluid. I wouldn't know though whether that refers in the case of an airliner.
How long for could hydraulic fluid trickle out?

Then too, it is not impossible that one of the wreckage pieces was unstable (where it ended up) and has shifted or turned, a substantial quantity of oil leaked all at once and the searchers happened to be in the right spot at the right time to notice it on the surface.
(This wouldn't be the first unexplained mystery.)

[Edited 2014-04-14 00:29:01]

[Edited 2014-04-14 00:29:38]
 
Pihero
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 54

Mon Apr 14, 2014 7:38 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 107):

"The missing Malaysia Airlines jet was "thrown around like a jet fighter" in a bid to dodge radar after it lost contact with authorities, Malaysian military investigators believe.

Flight MH370 is thought to have climbed to 45,000ft – 10,000ft above its normal altitude – before dropping to 5000ft and continuing to fly low at high speed, a source close to the investigation told Britain's Sunday Times.

The drastic manoeuvres required to perform such a sudden drop in altitude suggest the Boeing 777 was deliberately trying to avoid radar signals and vanish, the source said.

The new lead adds weight to the theory Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah hijacked his own plane after tricking his co-pilot into leaving the cockpit and then locking the door. "

Thanks for posting this recap of the bases for the *foul play* scenari.

Question : do they hold any credibility when faced with the very very simple computations I made earlier on times and fuel flows ?
Please answer.

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 119):
The slide of Finn350 is much more informative than mine (actually it is fantastic!) because it has another data block on the left hand side whereas mine was blocked off by another attendee standing up while trying to also capture a snapshot of the same slide. The new data block says:
"Time 02 02H Perak Island 279R 89nm from Butterworth AB"
Quoting BackSeater (Reply 119):

Ok. Let me do some very simple arithmetic:
(200-89) = 111nm in (02:22 - 02:02)=20 min

What average speed is that? 333kts

Seems quite consistent with my climb scenario that was just the 3rd step in an evasive strategy by some capable entity. The average speed seems reasonable for a climb (pilots can confirm?) and the intermittent radar returns from the huge T7 RCS are explained by the race condition between the a/c rate of climb and the rate of climb of the radar horizon (minimum radar visibility altitude).

Sorry for the long quote, but I couldn't find any way to shorten it.

Yes, the maths for the average speed between these two *radar blips* is fine...
but the formula for a radar visual *horizon* as you call it ( I love that word ! ) is given by :
D = 1.2 * sqrrt Z where D is the distance and Z the relative height between the radar and the target.
so we have, developing the above formula :

sqrt Z = D / 1.2 ;

At 89 nm from the radar, (Finn350's slide), sqrt Z = 89 / 1.2 = 74 ---> Z = 5476 ft
That's the minimum altitude for detection at that 89 nm range.
Fine

Now let's see your slide , same computation :
sqrt Z = 200 / 1.2 =166 ---> Z = 27,556 ft

So, the vertical speed needed for the aircraft to remain in radar sight would be ( 27600- 5500 ) / 20 mins = 1100 ft/min
Is that beyond the performance of the 777 ?
To me, if these radar blips were to be credible, they should have shown a continuous track...
But that's my conclusion.
Yours can be different, of course.

Please note the characteristics of fuel flow at low altitude and duringh climb ... that airplane would not have reached the 00:11 Z locus... It did not have, in your conditions, the endurance for.

[Edited 2014-04-14 00:48:21]

[Edited 2014-04-14 00:53:29]
Contrail designer

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