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BaconButty
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 12:46 pm

Quoting abba (Reply 152):
- Looking back into past history of suggested pilot suicides I find a rather obvious pattern that MH370 could potentially fall into.

So, as I understand it, you're suggesting that pilot suicide is used as a default in lieu of an expensive search and investigation. Yet the most famous of these, Egyptair 990, breaks the mould immediately. It was the NTSB (handling the investigation on behalf of the Egyptians, and after a recovery operation) who asserted suicide, and the Egyptians who denied it.
Down with that sort of thing!
 
art
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 2:12 pm

Quoting abba (Reply 152):
And who do you think will foot the bill for all this expensive investigation?

I don't know the system but would Lloyds of London ultimately pick up the bulk of any insurance/reinsurance bill?

Re: continuing aerial searches, are these in case any debris directly associated with an airliner is found? At least this might more or less confirm that an airliner definitely crashed in the southern Indian Ocean even if did not give much of a clue as to where.
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 3:16 pm

Someone was asking what a possible waypoint path to the current search area would look like. Here are a couple of possibilities:

This one takes a route between Cocos and Christmas Islands.

http://i.imgur.com/dFzvZin.png

And this one gets to the search area with only a single turn (and follows named routes the whole way: P627 followed by M641 after the turn at KALOX):

http://i.imgur.com/fL608ok.png

It directly overflies Cocos Island, but since apparently there is no radar installation on Cocos, it would not be detected.

The problem is getting the timing to work out. Total flight time is ~7.5 hours, but the latter would only take 6 hr 22 min at 486 knots--that would require the a/c to slow down significantly. Also, neither flight path above agrees with the Duncan Steel "ping rings" at all. Alternatively, the current search area is dreadfully wrong. If the current search area turns out to be right, I suspect when this is all settled, it will reveal a complex flight path with some weird turns.
 
abba
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 3:21 pm

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 155):
So, as I understand it, you're suggesting that pilot suicide is used as a default in lieu of an expensive search and investigation. Yet the most famous of these, Egyptair 990, breaks the mould immediately. It was the NTSB (handling the investigation on behalf of the Egyptians, and after a recovery operation) who asserted suicide, and the Egyptians who denied it.


You can take all examples and see that there can be made a case for suicide in each. I don't know if the entire wreckage of 990 was ever recovered and put together a la the TWA. Who knows what that would have revealed? Cost properly prevented it? Wonder if a European or American plane wouldn't have been recovered?

In this case it was a US agency claiming that that the probable cause of the EgyptAir flight 990 accident is " [-] the airplane's departure from normal cruise flight and subsequent impact with the Atlantic Ocean as a result of the [Egyptian - my ed] relief first officer's flight control inputs. The reason for the relief first officer's actions was not determined."

The main argument seems to be that this is the best guess based on what was on the recorder and how the utterances of the the relief first officer should be understood. I am not so sure that the cultural interpretation of the relief first officer's words is as strong as it was believed at the time. I have no particular knowledge of Egyptian culture but quite of few who have, have been questioning this part of the argument.
 
prebennorholm
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 3:28 pm

Quoting art (Reply 156):
Quoting abba (Reply 152): And who do you think will foot the bill for all this expensive investigation?
I don't know the system but would Lloyds of London ultimately pick up the bulk of any insurance/reinsurance bill?

Insurance companies áre there to cover damages. I doubt very much that insurance companies normally cover searches and investigations.

Insurance companies do business when there is a fairly clear limit to what their expenses can be. The limits of any investigation are only decided by the controllers of the investigations. In principle this world can keep on searching for MH370 forever, or until the Insurance company goes bankrupt.

And who would pay for such an insurance? Airline companies? No. They pay the insurances which they must have to cover damages.

This one will need the taxpayers to take up the bill.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
65mustang
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 4:07 pm

I found this high definition video of 9M-MRO from June 2012 in Frankfurt. It clearly shows all antenna on top of the plane as they were in 2012. It also appears that one section of windshield was replaced at some point.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Rb1El_YDf4

Here is a video from inside the 9m-mro. It shows that each seat has flight information and maps showing plane location. There might be videos just like this on many of the passenger devices that will help fill info on route, altitude, tailwind, and GS.


http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WSPfJYh9Z50

[Edited 2014-04-21 09:47:53]
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 5:46 pm

Quoting abba (Reply 153):

The main argument seems to be that this is the best guess based on what was on the recorder and how the utterances of the the relief first officer should be understood. I am not so sure that the cultural interpretation of the relief first officer's words is as strong as it was believed at the time. I have no particular knowledge of Egyptian culture but quite of few who have, have been questioning this part of the argument.

Let's put the whole sequence of events here, although I think we are bordering off-topic:

Quote:
At 0148:30, about 11 seconds after the captain left the cockpit, the CVR recorded an unintelligible comment. Ten seconds later (about 0148:40), the relief first officer stated quietly, "“I rely on God".” There were no sounds or events recorded by the flight recorders that would indicate that an airplane anomaly or other unusual circumstance preceded the relief first officer’s statement, "“I rely on God".”

At 0149:18, the CVR recorded the sound of an electric seat motor. FDR data indicated that, at 0149:45 (27 seconds later), the autopilot was disconnected. Aside from the very slight movement of both elevators (the left elevator moved from about a 0.7° to about a 0.5° nose-up deflection, and the right elevator moved from about a 0.35° nose-up to about a 0.3° nose-down deflection) and the airplane’s corresponding slight nose-down pitch change, which were recorded within the first second after autopilot disconnect, and a very slow (0.5° per second) left roll rate, the airplane remained essentially in level flight about FL 330 for about 8 seconds after the autopilot was disconnected. At 0149:48, the relief first officer again stated quietly, "“I rely on God."” At 0149:53, the throttle levers were moved from their cruise power setting to idle, and, at 0149:54, the FDR recorded an abrupt nose-down elevator movement and a very slight movement of the inboard ailerons. Subsequently, the airplane began to rapidly pitch nose down and descend.

Between 0149:57 and 0150:05, the relief first officer quietly repeated, "“I rely on God",” seven additional times. During this time, as a result of the nose-down elevator movement, the airplane’s load factor decreased from about 1 to about 0.2 G. Between 0150:04 and 0150:05 (about 10 to 11 seconds after the initial nose-down movement of the elevators), the FDR recorded additional, slightly larger inboard aileron movements, and the elevators started moving further in the nose-down direction. Immediately after the FDR recorded the increased nose-down elevator movement, the CVR recorded the sounds of the captain asking loudly (beginning at 0150:06), “"What’s happening? What’s happening?",” as he returned to the cockpit.

The airplane’s load factor decreased further as a result of the increased nose-down elevator deflection, reaching negative G loads (about -0.2 G) between 0150:06 and 0150:07. During this time (and while the captain was still speaking [at 0150:07]), the relief first officer stated for the tenth time, “"I rely on God".” Additionally, the CVR transcript indicated that beginning at 0150:07, the CVR recorded the “sound of numerous thumps and clinks,” which continued for about 15 seconds.

According to the CVR and FDR data, at 0150:08, as the airplane exceeded its maximum operating airspeed (0.86 Mach), a master warning alarm began to sound.



Source: http://www.ntsb.gov/doclib/reports/2002/AAB0201.pdf (pages 4-5)

Do you really think that it could have been something else than suicide based on the factual information above?
 
David L
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 6:35 pm

Quoting abba (Reply 152):
Even the Malaysian government has been hinting at a pilot suicide or some other criminal act for a while.

They've said that some actions seem to have been deliberate (e.g. the transponder being switched off and the routing to the Malacca Strait) while continuing to consider other possibilities.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 156):
Do you really think that it could have been something else than suicide based on the factual information above?

Not mention the fact that during the verbal exchange between the Captain and the FO the fuel levers were moved to cut-off.
 
CO953
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 6:50 pm

Quoting abba (Reply 138):
How many cases explained by pilot suicide do we have - they have been listed above somewhere. I believe it was 5 - 6. That is certainly a surprisingly high percentage of all crashes. In particular as we can find nothing similar in other lines of business. Add to this that there seems to be this systematic pattern about most of them - if not all - that they involve pilots of a cultural background different from the investigators and pilots from airlines and countries that do not have the resources to pay for a huge and expensive investigation. In particular if the crash took place in such a way that the wreckage has to be picked up from the deep ocean.

Now, if there were a crash, an explanation must be given. And I believe that it is not - politically - possible to say that we cannot find the reason - or we cannot afford to do so. So therefore: the pilot did it.

Take a look at this and ask yourself the question: how many countries have the resources and the funds to do this?

Maybe this is a cultural difference, but what I am gathering from your repeated posts in this vein is that you are imputing conscious or subconscious racism to Westerners who speculate on a pilot suicide.

As you know, percentage-wise, the pilots of the majority of known suicided aircraft have been of the Muslim religion. I prefer to deal in empirical facts, instead of in politics or racial dialectic.

So if you truly believe that there is a conscious or subconcious intent for the Western investigators to use bigotry to try to pin the disappearance on the pilots, I would rather you say so directly, or, if this is not your belief, I wish you would be more careful in couching what is coming across - to me, a natural-born American - as a repeated accusatory subcontext of racism.

You are free to comment as you like. I personally do not believe that the investigators are basing possible pilot-suicide scenarios on skin color. On religion? Well, if the religion can be tied to an extremist bent in the flight crew, then yes, empirically, we follow that as far as is warranted. But we certainly do not rule it out based upon a desire to avoid the perception of being racially biased.

When it comes to angle of attack or ELB pings, Science Don't Care.

Again, maybe I am misinterpreting your comments, and if so, I apologize. In America, we have been schooled for 40 years to be so diligent in the avoidance of appearance of racial bias, that our politics now consist more of avoidance of possible insult, than of solving of problems. That's why nothing gets done in America anymore.

[Edited 2014-04-21 11:53:21]

[Edited 2014-04-21 11:53:47]
 
CO953
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 6:54 pm

Quoting CO953 (Reply 158):
As you know, percentage-wise, the pilots of the majority of known suicided aircraft have been of the Muslim religion. I prefer to deal in empirical facts, instead of in politics or racial dialectic.

Kamikazes, of course, excluded.
 
abba
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 7:00 pm

Quoting David L (Reply 157):
They've said that some actions seem to have been deliberate (e.g. the transponder being switched off and the routing to the Malacca Strait) while continuing to consider other possibilities

Exactly - not claiming. Doing that at this stage would be stupid. But they are saying enough so that if the black boxes are not found (within the budget the Malaysian government is willing to pay) and if they do not provide a clear answer (and they decide that they will not recover the wreckage and do a thorough investigation a la the TWA990 that until a painstaking and extremely expensive - and equally amazing - reconstruction looked as if it was taken down by a criminal act) of the wreckage, then they could draw that conclusion at a later day in such a way that it will not come as a too big of a surprise to the public. To me it seems rather well balanced.
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 7:09 pm

Quoting abba (Reply 160):
then they could draw that conclusion at a later day

That's not how air accident investigations work. If there is insufficient evidence, the report will simply lay out the evidence that is available and conclude that it is insufficient to determine why the accident happened.

From Annex 13 of the International Convention on Civil Aviation, article 3.1:
" The sole objective of the investigation of an accident or incident shall be the prevention of accidents and incidents. It is not the purpose of this activity to apportion blame or liability".
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
David L
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 7:16 pm

Quoting David L (Reply 157):
They've said that some actions seem to have been deliberate (e.g. the transponder being switched off and the routing to the Malacca Strait)

Now I've dug myself into a hole. Of course they didn't say the routing was deliberate but that the routing suggested some deliberate actions - not the same thing.

Quoting abba (Reply 160):
To me it seems rather well balanced

If that was your point then I think you hid it well.  
 
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BaconButty
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 7:19 pm

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 156):
Do you really think that it could have been something else than suicide based on the factual information above?

Actually yes, based on the transcript. It's equally consistent with the relief FO finding himself in difficulty - I think we get thrown by the "“I rely on God" or "I trust in Allah" which, I understand, could amount to "God help us".

The reason I believe it's suicide (or "as a result of the relief FO's control inputs") is because the NTSB have dismissed the alternatives.
Down with that sort of thing!
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 7:23 pm

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 163):
Actually yes, based on the transcript. It's equally consistent with the relief FO finding himself in difficulty - I think we get thrown by the "“I rely on God" or "I trust in Allah" which, I understand, could amount to "God help us".

The essential information of the passage I quoted is the FO's actions, not the "I rely on God" utterances. Even without a single "I rely on God" utterance it is clear that the FO made the plane to crash.
 
hivue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 7:26 pm

Quoting abba (Reply 147):
- Looking back into past history of suggested pilot suicides I find a rather obvious pattern that MH370 could potentially fall into.

Really? Can you specify a past suspected pilot suicide where, after the plane was apparently co-opted by the suicidal pilot, it continued to fly for 6+ hours?
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 7:32 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 21):
Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 4):8. Conclusion: the apparent flight path of the a/c from 16:41 until 18:29 is wholly consistent with an a/c following a waypoint path, namely: KUA PIBOS VKR IGARI VENLI VKB VPG VAMPI MEKAR NILAM SANOB. Most of the track follows the named routes R208 M765 B219 N571 and P627.

Bull. A direct track from IGARI to any point North of Sumatra fits it better. And fits the infos given to us ( I mean the un-doctored ones, not your assumption of a continuous radar track... etc...) a lot better.

There is zero evidence for a direct track from IGARI to north of Sumatra. If you have any, let's see it. The only way you can maintain this is if you eliminate the Butterworth radar track.

But why should we do that?

It was reported by the New Strait Times and independently confirmed by American officials at CNN that the FO's cell phone was picked up by a tower near Penang. This is consistent with the radar track that shows the a/c purposefully flying from Penang to the N571 route (VAMPI MEKAR NILAM). If the pilots were incapacitated and the a/c was flying its last heading, it would have continued on a SW track that would have taken it over Aceh province.

If you eliminate the radar data, (except for the "unpublished" "loci", as you say) then you have no principled reason to choose any particular direction or destination over any other. Why Sumatra? Why not Borneo?

Cheers,
Warren
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 7:41 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 165):
Really? Can you specify a past suspected pilot suicide where, after the plane was apparently co-opted by the suicidal pilot, it continued to fly for 6+ hours?

Absence of precedent is not absence of possibility.

"It's happened, just not like this."
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hivue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 7:52 pm

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 167):
Absence of precedent is not absence of possibility.

But abba referred to a "rather obvious pattern." That implies precedent to me. (I do not, however, agree that there has been either any previous obvious pattern or any precedent.)
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 7:54 pm

Did MH check their 777 fleet for any clues? At least the ones with same age.
 
abba
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:06 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 165):
Really? Can you specify a past suspected pilot suicide where, after the plane was apparently co-opted by the suicidal pilot, it continued to fly for 6+ hours?

No - can you?

Or can you find any examples of suicide - outside aviation - similar to a pilot deliberately crashing his plane full of pax in order to kill himself with as many innocent people as possible - e.g. a train or bus driver smashing his vehicle to kill himself with as many passengers as possible? And these drivers might even be in that privileged position that they will not know any of their passengers while a pilot could well be flying with well known colleges and know a number of the FAs.

Neither can I. Strangely enough, aviation has several examples - apparently....

The closest I can get to anything only just resembling is religious fanatics with a political agenda and people with severe problems such as those doing the infamous school shootings.

Neither are in my book even close to be parallel!
 
hivue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:13 pm

Quoting abba (Reply 170):
No - can you?

Of course not. But then I'm not the one who claimed there is a "rather obvious pattern that MH370 could potentially fall into."
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:19 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 166):

It was reported by the New Strait Times and independently confirmed by American officials at CNN that the FO's cell phone was picked up by a tower near Penang.

We've had this discussion, but it was "redacted".

The NST reported it under the (slightly) sensationalist headline World Exclusive - MH370's Desperate Call for Help. The (anonymous) U.S. "officials" who "confirmed" it to CNN were the same ones who "confirmed" that the aircraft had landed at a remote airstrip in China / Pakistan / Afghanistan.

Reputable press (NYT, Reuters, WSJ) dropped the story within 24 hours. If they had confirmed (or debunked) it, I suspect they would have reported.

So those of us who focus on *facts* conclude that it's technically not impossible, but await an authoritative (non-tabloid) source and wouldn't suggest that it confirms radar plots, waypoints or anything else.

BTW, Pihero, whom you seem to delight in baiting, pretty accurately (along with Mandala499) predicted what happened to AF447. He and Mandala499 have a track record of dedicated research and aviation expertise.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:31 pm

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 172):
The (anonymous) U.S. "officials" who "confirmed" it to CNN were the same ones who "confirmed" that the aircraft had landed at a remote airstrip in China / Pakistan / Afghanistan.

Fox News reported that the plane landed in Pakistan based on some crackpot ex-officer story (who probably got it from Flying with Fish).

To my knowledge, CNN has never reported anything like that and I couldn't find any reference with Google search either. Could you please provide a source for your allegation regarding CNN reporting?
 
lancelot07
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:45 pm

Hello Forum ! After reading for years i have finally joined  
Quoting abba (Reply 170):
Or can you find any examples of suicide - outside aviation - similar to a pilot deliberately crashing his plane full of pax in order to kill himself with as many innocent people as possible - e.g. a train or bus driver smashing his vehicle to kill himself with as many passengers as possible?

Neither can i, but this may be for good reasons: How good are the chances to commit suicide successfully by either crashing a bus or a train ? Not too good, i suspect. And even if it has happened the investigation may simply have concluded speeding or drunk driving.

otoh, drivers of cars have been suspected to have committed suicide by crashing into all kinds of solid objects, among them other cars.

btw, if we take pihero's categories from the previous threads i belong to the "sitting on the fence"-party. It may be a scary accident, or it may be foul play (not necessarily suicide!), but both groups of theories do have their problems.
 
UALWN
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:47 pm

Quoting CO953 (Reply 158):
As you know, percentage-wise, the pilots of the majority of known suicided aircraft have been of the Muslim religion. I prefer to deal in empirical facts, instead of in politics or racial dialectic.

The majority? More like 2 out of 8:

http://news.aviation-safety.net/2013...accidents-caused-by-pilot-suicide/

These are the "empirical facts". In any case, even if it were, say, 3 out of 5, what kind of statistical significance would that give you? Basically none. This is how you deal with empirical facts. Using statistics.
AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/787/AB6/310/32X/330/340/350/380
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:50 pm

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 173):

It's gone from their archive. But this will give you an idea of the quality of their reporting on MH370: http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2...Report-On-Twitter-As-Totally-False

"According to CNN, a senior Malaysian official revealed that air force search aircraft were "scrambled about 8 a.m. March 8 to the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca, soon after Malaysia Airlines reported that its plane was missing."
The CNN report adds that "the air force did not inform the Department of Civil Aviation or search and rescue operations until three days later, March 11, a source involved in the investigation told CNN." An aviation expert also told CNN that the altitude dip the plane apparently underwent shortly after disappearing "looks like -- more and more -- somebody in the cockpit was directing this plane and directing it away from land."

Statement from the Chief of the RMAF:
"In my capacity as the Chief of Royal Malaysian Air Force, I can confirm that the above allegation is totally false".
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
aftgaffe
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:51 pm

For anyone interested, the FAA has done studies on "aircraft-assisted" suicides in the U.S.

It doesn't concern any suicides involving commercial pax but some might find it--and it's existence--notable.

http://www.faa.gov/data_research/res...techreports/2010s/media/201402.pdf
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:52 pm

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 172):
Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 166):It was reported by the New Strait Times and independently confirmed by American officials at CNN that the FO's cell phone was picked up by a tower near Penang.

We've had this discussion, but it was "redacted".The NST reported it under the (slightly) sensationalist headline World Exclusive - MH370's Desperate Call for Help. The (anonymous) U.S. "officials" who "confirmed" it to CNN were the same ones who "confirmed" that the aircraft had landed at a remote airstrip in China / Pakistan / Afghanistan.

We don't know if they are the same people or not.

Quote:
Reputable press (NYT, Reuters, WSJ) dropped the story within 24 hours. If they had confirmed (or debunked) it, I suspect they would have reported.

So those of us who focus on *facts* conclude that it's technically not impossible, but await an authoritative (non-tabloid) source and wouldn't suggest that it confirms radar plots, waypoints or anything else.

By itself, the story is not very significant. It is not big news. The fact that NYT et al. didn't endlessly repeat it after 24 hours if they ever mentioned it at all doesn't mean much IMHO. No one to my knowledge has definitively debunked the story. In any case, the Butterworth radar data stands on its own. No one has debunked that AFAIK. Correct me if I'm wrong. If a cell tower in Penang detected a cell phone, that's mere icing on the cake. Therefore, if we accept the radar data, there's no way MH370 flew a direct path from IGARI to points north of Sumatra.
 
abba
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:54 pm

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 172):
Reputable press (NYT, Reuters, WSJ) dropped the story within 24 hours. If they had confirmed (or debunked) it, I suspect they would have reported.

I even think it was positively denied as un-kown to them by the Malay authorities.

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 172):
BTW, Pihero, whom you seem to delight in baiting, pretty accurately (along with Mandala499) predicted what happened to AF447. He and Mandala499 have a track record of dedicated research and aviation expertise.

.. and I would add a few more like Zeke. They are all aviation professionals and have a stellar record in getting pretty close to what might have happened at a number of cases. Not only AF447. They are gold for this forum - sine qua non.

[Edited 2014-04-21 14:00:13]
 
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BaconButty
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:55 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 166):
It was reported by the New Strait Times and independently confirmed by American officials at CNN that the FO's cell phone was picked up by a tower near Penang.

American "Officials" have leaked all sorts of crap during this episode. The Malaysian authorities certainly involved Boeing, the NTSB and the FAA, and presumably the intelligence community as well. Quite how much involving each benefited them would be interesting to know, but it has certainly led to a stream of leaks to reporters, more often than not by someone who clearly only had part of the story, and then often garbled. It's certainly created the unfortunate picture of confusion where often there was none.
Which of those four was most responsible would be interesting to know. You would imagine the Boeing guys would offer discrete support based on previous incidents, and the NTSB are as respected an aviation-safety related body as you can get. The FAA are also an aviation related organisation   .
Down with that sort of thing!
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 9:35 pm

Quoting abba (Reply 179):
Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 172):Reputable press (NYT, Reuters, WSJ) dropped the story within 24 hours. If they had confirmed (or debunked) it, I suspect they would have reported.I even think it was positively denied as un-kown to them by the Malay authorities.

All right: I found this article in the Sydney Morning Herald where it is denied that any cell phone signals were picked up:

Quote:
The New Straits Times had reported on Saturday that co-pilot Fariq Abdul Hamid made a call that ended abruptly, possibly ''because the aircraft was fast moving away from the [telecommunications] tower''. But Malaysian Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein told reporters authorities had no knowledge of any calls made from the plane's cockpit.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/search-a...-20140413-36ljz.html#ixzz2zYgkc8Kt

So OK: no cell phone calls--I admit it. Yet no retraction of the Butterworth radar data either.
 
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9MMPQ
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 9:44 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 166):
It was reported by the New Strait Times and independently confirmed by American officials at CNN that the FO's cell phone was picked up by a tower near Penang.
Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 178):
By itself, the story is not very significant. It is not big news. The fact that NYT et al. didn't endlessly repeat it after 24 hours if they ever mentioned it at all doesn't mean much IMHO. No one to my knowledge has definitively debunked the story.
Quoting abba (Reply 179):
I even think it was positively denied as un-kown to them by the Malay authorities.

   The acting transport minister even refuted it but that has apparently gained less coverage. Of course it does get a bit in the way of a good story. New Straits Times dropped it and when later reporting on the comments made by the transport minister on their own story they only referred to it as an article printed by a local newspaper. Seems to me even they wanted to distance themselves from their report.
I believe in coincidences. Coincidences happen every day. But I don't trust coincidences.
 
sipadan
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 9:47 pm

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 173):
Fox News reported that the plane landed in Pakistan based on some crackpot ex-officer story (who probably got it from Flying with Fish).

yes, very true.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 173):
To my knowledge, CNN has never reported anything like that and I couldn't find any reference with Google search either. Could you please provide a source for your allegation regarding CNN reporting?

To my knowledge as well.

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 176):
It's gone from their archive. But this will give you an idea of the quality of their reporting on MH370: http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2...Report-On-Twitter-As-Totally-False

No, it is not. It was NEVER in their archive, just a convenient fabrication for you to put forth. Then, to recuse yourself from deliberate misinformation, you lean on gross generalizations...well, their reporting is not to be trusted, regardless.
 
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aerorobnz
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 9:56 pm

Alll tv news, newspapers should be forced to place retractions first in their news buliten before they can begin any news, and on front page, then they might just start to only report facts
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
aftgaffe
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 10:04 pm

Quoting 9MMPQ (Reply 182):
The acting transport minister even refuted it but that has apparently gained less coverage. Of course it does get a bit in the way of a good story. New Straits Times dropped it and when later reporting on the comments made by the transport minister on their own story they only referred to it as an article printed by a local newspaper. Seems to me even they wanted to distance themselves from their report.

I think actually it was New Straits Times that reported the story and then The Straits Times that printed the government's refutation.

Story: http://www.nst.com.my/nation/general...raced-to-co-pilot-s-phone-1.562612

Refutation: http://www.straitstimes.com/the-big-...eport-mh370-co-pilot-made-mid-air-

In all events, I read the rebuke as being specifically directed at whether a *call* was made or attempted and not necessarily at whether a cell signal had been detected.


Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 181):
So OK: no cell phone calls--I admit it. Yet no retraction of the Butterworth radar data either.

In line with the above, CNN (and it's anonymous source) did not say there was a cell phone call but a *signal.* I don't think that has been specifically rebuked but I'm by no means saying we should take it as a fact.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/04/14/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/



**Edit - Bear in mind also, FWIW, that reporters do not usually write their headlines. The NST headline was sensationalist but the story decidedly less so.

[Edited 2014-04-21 15:13:34]
 
EC135
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 10:06 pm

If the pings are recorded every ~ 6 seconds, it should have been pretty obvious at the very first day of disappearance that MH370 flew a couple of hours after disappearing. Why did the SAR operations concentrate to the South China Sea for the first couple of days and were then shifted to the Strait of Malacca for another couple of days?? I still remember the discussion in the earlier parts of this topic, why the search area was expanded to both sides of the Malaysian peninsular... Why wasting days if not weeks by searching wrong places if pings are logged every 6 seconds???
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:25 pm

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 119):

Yes. People are very quick to update Wiki nowadays, however, the finer details available on Wiki are not always accurate. It is good to see when Wiki is correct but it is not surprising when Wiki is incorrect.

AFAIK, this timeline corresponds exactly to my own records.
Otherwise, check Simon's AvHerald, well known for accurate and reasoned reporting.

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 166):

There is zero evidence for a direct track from IGARI to north of Sumatra. If you have any, let's see it. The only way you can maintain this is if you eliminate the Butterworth radar track.

I never sid there was one. I was just pushing the theories about :
1/- descent below the radar in the Straites
2/- A waypoint based swiggly route between waypoints, either at low /high trajectory or at constant altitude...
to their minimum possibilities, and I have proven that you - especially you - needed to change your assumptions so they can match at least the T7 performance capability.

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 166):

It was reported by the New Strait Times and independently confirmed by American officials at CNN that the FO's cell phone was picked up by a tower near Penang.

Claim that was flatly and strongly refuted by the Malaysia,n authorities on APR 17.

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 172):
BTW, Pihero, whom you seem to delight in baiting, pretty accurately (along with Mandala499) predicted what happened to AF447.

Please add yourself to that team, along with dozens of posters among whom DavidL, Zeke, PGNCS,, Bellerophon, Starlionblue.... and so many others.
I particularly miss baroque who has left us and whose insights on sea research have been extraordinarly helpful... I miss him a lot on this forum.

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 178):
No one to my knowledge has definitively debunked the story. In any case, the Butterworth radar data stands on its own. No one has debunked that AFAIK.

What you call the *Butterworth radar data* are only two plots : one at 18:02 Z and one at 18:22 Z with these infos :
295° R / 200 Nm from Butterworth AB. There is nothing more.

Then you pick up a slide from the Chinese news agency ( from another site ) which shows a line of red dots and you assume that these were the traces of Flight 370 , then base a whole set of totally incompatible scenarii on the premise that Butterworth radar was in error, but not a Chinese journo.
My demo proved that even this official bearing / distance to the point I called RP2 is questionable.


Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 181):

So OK: no cell phone calls--I admit it. Yet no retraction of the Butterworth radar data either.

Good of you !

As for all your work on trying to fit a waypoint route to a point close to the search area, it lacks fundamental reasoning :
1/- It has to fit the passage at ALL the *loci* at the times they were set., which you certainly haven't demonstrated as the bases of your argument are for vastly different speeds ( 373 and 486 kt , IIRC ).
It's easy to reverse- engineer, though : just plot the positions on your chart at 19:11, 20:11, 21:11... etc... with the changing ground speeds due to wind.
I'll be really interested in that work.

2/- It has to fit at these vastly different speeds the endurance of the aircraft : (hint : they can't both fit that requirement.)
(hint #2 : There's no such thing as a normal cruising speed for a modern aircraft . We fly Mach numbers which give airspeeds dependent on outside temperature, and the Mach numbers depend on company policy on cost indexes : that aircraft would have flown anywhere between Mach .87 and .82, a spread of 30 kt independent on actual temperature on a continuously decreasing Mach)

3/- If you assume an FMS-based navigation waypoint trajectory, you also have to assume a managed cruise schedule... and most of all, if you want to disappear, why chose a point that near to Australia ? Why not a route that takes you as far as possible into the 'Forties" at Max endurance schedule, making sure that you'll never be found ?
(you'll have to discover how to fly at max endurance, though).

Why a waypoint route ? Lots easier to just type an impossible target, say... 80°S / 090°E : It requires 5 strokes on your pad... and you disappear into oblivion... well before you reach 80°S.

Alas ! some clever people have found a way to reproduce - or come close to - your track..
Contrail designer
 
dfambro
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:26 pm

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 172):
predicted what happened to AF447

Predicted? As in before it happened?  
But seriously, as I recall the threads, there was quite a bit of shock when the actual malfunction was revealed to be so brief and limited.
The post-crash, pre-FDR recovery discussion was predicting that the FDR (if ever found) would reveal something much more serious, and there was an active contingent who didn't want discussion of "pilot error"
There was also a ton of anti-Airbus FBW stuff, which was painful to slog through.
 
UALWN
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:37 pm

Quoting dfambro (Reply 188):
But seriously, as I recall the threads, there was quite a bit of shock when the actual malfunction was revealed to be so brief and limited.

As far as I remember, Pihero and Mandala did nail down the root cause of the accident within a week or so of its occurrence.
AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/787/AB6/310/32X/330/340/350/380
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:41 pm

Quoting sipadan (Reply 183):
No, it is not. It was NEVER in their archive, just a convenient fabrication for you to put forth. Then, to recuse yourself from deliberate misinformation, you lean on gross generalizations

I do not indulge in convenient fabrication or deliberate misinformation, as I think those who know me on these threads will attest. I leave that to others.

Quoting aftgaffe (Reply 185):
In line with the above, CNN (and it's anonymous source) did not say there was a cell phone call but a *signal.* I don't think that has been specifically rebuked but I'm by no means saying we should take it as a fact.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/04/14/wo...lane/

Thank you - I couldn't find it in the CNN archives, but it's apparently there. I look forward to an apology from those who have accused me of fabrication and misinformation.

[Edited 2014-04-21 16:54:04]
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Kaiarahi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:50 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 187):
I particularly miss baroque who has left us and whose insights on sea research have been extraordinarly helpful... I miss him a lot on this forum.

Agreed! Along with tdscanuck, who could have provided valuable insight on B772 systems, but was driven to leave the forum by idiots questioning his knowledge.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Tue Apr 22, 2014 12:01 am

Quoting Pihero (Reply 187):
Yes. People are very quick to update Wiki nowadays, however, the finer details available on Wiki are not always accurate. It is good to see when Wiki is correct but it is not surprising when Wiki is incorrect.

AFAIK, this timeline corresponds exactly to my own records.
Otherwise, check Simon's AvHerald, well known for accurate and reasoned reporting.

And that is exactly why I said it is good to see when Wiki is correct!
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
aftgaffe
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Tue Apr 22, 2014 12:34 am

Quoting EC135 (Reply 186):

If the pings are recorded every ~ 6 seconds, it should have been pretty obvious at the very first day of disappearance that MH370 flew a couple of hours after disappearing.

It seems quite possible MAS / Malaysian did not know the pings had occurred, possibly assuming that with ACARS disabled (neutral term) that satcom transmissions had ceased entirely, until they were informed by Inmarsat (or SITA), which according to the Washington Post happened on March 12.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...lines-plane-have-gone-much-faster/

The data was made public on March 14 (or 15) and the southern corridor conclusion was put forth ~ March 24:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-n...e-timeline-search-malaysia-3268281

That said, it seems like the best Inmarsat's analysis did vis-a-vis airspeed is guestimate. That was apparently sufficient to determine which corridor the plane flew. But if you had frequent pings at a constant interval, couldn't you do a lot better? At least, in the absence of any reason not to hold altitude constant for the duration of the southbound leg, shouldn't constant pings give us a pretty good sense of airspeed? I would imagine, additionally, that would only be the beginning of what you could do with constant pings' worth of data....

[Edited 2014-04-21 17:40:12]
 
panampaul
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Tue Apr 22, 2014 1:07 am

It is hard to believe we are at day 45 (and part 56 of this thread). Yet the anguish of passenger families is continuing while the search continues (sadly enough) to find nothing.


Bluefin 21 Completes Two-Thirds of Flight 370 Sea Floor Search - Bluefin 21 Completes Two-Thirds of Flight 370 Sea Floor Search

Quote:
As the 45-day mark in the search for the missing Malaysia Airlines jet struck, a Malaysian government met with relatives of the passengers who were on the ill-fated flight to discuss possible compensation, while an autonomous underwater vehicle continued to scour the ocean floor looking for signs of wreckage.

Malaysia’s deputy foreign affairs minister, Hamzah Zainuddin, who heads a government committee overseeing the needs of the next of kin, held meetings with passengers’ relatives in Kuala Lumpur Sunday to look at next steps including financial assistance. He told reporters that family members were invited to submit a plan for compensation and that the government or Malaysia Airlines could possibly set up a fund for this purpose....

.
 
65mustang
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Tue Apr 22, 2014 1:13 am

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 181):

Quote:
The New Straits Times had reported on Saturday that co-pilot Fariq Abdul Hamid made a call that ended abruptly, possibly ''because the aircraft was fast moving away from the [telecommunications] tower''. But Malaysian Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein told reporters authorities had no knowledge of any calls made from the plane's cockpit.

I think both versions can be right. I speculate that the malaysians pulled the phone records of the pilots from their providers and that information is no more than what you find on your own bill. So they are right when they say no calls or text were made. This information is what is within the providers network. The information they may not have are the data from the cell tower phone registrations both within the providers network and outside/roaming network.
 
bluesky9
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Tue Apr 22, 2014 2:03 am

The fact that the cargo was not scanned might be worth looking into a little more closely.

Be interested to know:
1. Was it just MH370's cargo that was not scanned or were there many more A/C cargoes that were not scanned that day?

2. How often is cargo not scanned on international flights?

3. Would the captain or airline know that the cargo was not scanned and have to sign off on that?

4. Is cargo sometimes not scanned at the destination airport, and if so is there any correlation with cargo not scanned at the departure airport?

Questions Malaysian authorities would probably be looking at:

5. Is there any correlation between scanner problems and destinations or flights in the past?

6. Is there any correlation between staff operating the scanners and scanner problems?
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Tue Apr 22, 2014 2:05 am

Quoting PanAmPaul (Reply 194):
It is hard to believe we are at day 45 (and part 56 of this thread). Yet the anguish of passenger families is continuing while the search continues (sadly enough) to find nothing.


Bluefin 21 Completes Two-Thirds of Flight 370 Sea Floor Search - Bluefin 21 Completes Two-Thirds of Flight 370 Sea Floor Search

If they are so confident that they are searching in the right area, and Bluefin-21 comes up with nothing, will they most likely:

A- Just expand the search area;
B- Re-check the area with Bluefin-21;
C- Bring in something more capable like the REMUS 6000 to re-check the area; or
D- A combination of the above?

I don't know what they would do, but the area they are searching is obviously the most credible area according to the info / leads the SAR team has. I would hope that they would at least re-check the area with a more capable underwater vehicle like the REMUS 6000 (whilst obviously expanding the Bluefin-21 search area) instead of just concluding that nothing is there... I have seen images of how something like Bluefin-21 would see a submerged submarine but if the plane broke up into smaller pieces (a fraction the size of a sub) how likely is it to pick them up? They had a long way to drift down to the seabed so the debris field might be very spread out? I'm just not sure what the exact capabilities of Bluefin-21 are... How small an object can it detect? If they don't have any luck in the current search area and they get no new info about where to search then I'm afraid that if the Bluefin-21 search comes up empty then this would really change the nature of this search...

[Edited 2014-04-21 19:07:33]

[Edited 2014-04-21 19:09:14]
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Tue Apr 22, 2014 2:10 am

Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 196):
1. Was it just MH370's cargo that was not scanned or were there many more A/C cargoes that were not scanned that day?

It was mentioned in earlier threads at one stage that it was only the MH370 cargo that was not scanned. I'm not sure if that was confirmed as being correct though. Interesting nonetheless if true.
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
dfambro
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 56

Tue Apr 22, 2014 2:56 am

Quoting UALWN (Reply 189):
Quoting dfambro (Reply 188):But seriously, as I recall the threads, there was quite a bit of shock when the actual malfunction was revealed to be so brief and limited.
As far as I remember, Pihero and Mandala did nail down the root cause of the accident within a week or so of its occurrence.

I just went back a reviewed large sections of the threads (thread title was "AF A332 Crash (F-GZCP)" with 21 parts) and there's some revisionist history going on here. As we now know, the root cause was pitot tube being clogged by ice crystals, followed by puzzling and ultimately disastrous response by the crew. The original loss of airspeed issue was known from ACARS, and was not in debate. The pitots were blamed early on due to known issues with the Thales probes, but that was the common wisdom and not the 'derived by the experts' view. To quote Kaiarahi from Part 21, in reference to the notion that blocked pitots were to blame:

"Actually not agreed on by most. At this stage, it is not established whether there was an issue with the pitots, the ADMs, or the ADIRUs."

Most of the intelligent debate (which was only a fraction of the debate!) was about how events played out after loss of airspeed data. The expert strategy was to work through systems, procedures, similar incidents, etc., for clues as to how events may have played. It was impressive, the good contributors here really know what they're doing (which is why I read these threads!). These analysis, however, did not end up in any one place - there just wasn't enough known. Perhaps more germanely to my comments here, these analyses generally did not consider a scenario that matches what actually occurred. To demonstrate why, I'll quote from one of our best posters (although since he's not posting at the moment, I won't name him). from Part 20:

"The facts show that the 30 cases involving the loss of air data when equipped with the Thales AA model pitot probes are not only survivable, but should not reasonably cause the loss of the aircraft nor the loss or difficulty in maintaining control"

Yet, what actually happened was that a brief loss of data from the pitot tubes led the pilots to lose control.

As I already mentioned, the level of discussion from our expert posters was awesome, and I'm very grateful they share with us here. But they didn't get AF447 right.

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