With VS set to take its first 787 this year, it got my wondering about their future fleet plans. I have recently flown with them to DXB on one of their A333s. An excellent aircraft and a thoroughly enjoyable experience.

A question to those of you more in the know - is it their intention to replace all of their 747s and A340's with the 787's? Do they have enough on order?

I guess the future fleet looks as though it will be made up of the 10 x A333s and the 787s. Could they convert their A380 orders to A35J's?

Given their irrational love of quads, I wouldn't be surprised if they drag a few Il-62s, Britannias, CV-990s and maybe a couple of Upper Class-only Lockheed JetStars (to compete with BA's Club World | London City product!) out of retirement. Why not? It makes as much sense as "4 engines 4 long haul"!

I think I know one quad that isn't in Virgin Atlantic's future: the A380.

I think they will take delivery of the A380, they have a couple or routes were they can make good money with them. HKG, NYC, LAX.

they will order A350 for sure, they have 29 planes to replace, 17 A340 and 12 B747 and in future 10 A333, but only 6 (6) A380 and 15 (8) B787. In order to replace the 300 to 450 pax planes they will need something like that, A350 or B777-9 but if they didn´t order B77W I don´t think they will do with the B777-9.

Quoting hibtastic (Thread starter): A question to those of you more in the know - is it their intention to replace all of their 747s and A340's with the 787's? Do they have enough on order?

There's certainly not enough to replace all of the 747s and A340s with the 787s currently on order, unless VS are going to make big cuts to their network. I think the emphasis with the 787s is going to be on A340 replacement.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, I reckon the 747s will be in the VS fleet until at least the end of the decade. The LGW-based 747s were re-fitted within the last 3 years and apart from the A380s (if that order is ever fulfilled) there's nothing else on order that could adequately replace them.

The focus of Virgin Atlantic has clearly changed under the Delta tutelage from a niche Point to point London global operation and parallel long haul leisure holidays operation.

The dreamliners are to replace all remaining 340s over a period of 18 months or so.

There is no expansion to speak of , more rather stability with the focus back on the North Atlantic under the DL joint venture.

The leisure operation includes refurbished 744 frames that will remain for some considerable time - likely into the next decade !
The current use of 333 frames within leisure may decline as these are more suited to Eastern Seaboard operations.

The remaining Heathrow based half dozen or so 744s are certain to remain for another four to five years however these are the frames that the 388s are meant to replace.

Right now the 2018 date to fixed however if they are to consider swapping these for say a number of A350 -1000 models a decision probably needs to come in the next 12-18 months one would have thought, and quantity wise perhaps 8 to 10 would allow a little defined expansion or small increases in frequencies.

One thing I have often said and remain concerned about is the future of leisure division - it's said have a reasonable profitability along with Virgin Holidays however is it core to what Delta wants to achieve in future ?

Could it be hived off back to Virgin Group entirety perhaps ?

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 4): Right now the 2018 date to fixed however if they are to consider swapping these for say a number of A350 -1000 models a decision probably needs to come in the next 12-18 months one would have thought, and quantity wise perhaps 8 to 10 would allow a little defined expansion or small increases in frequencies.

Agree the A350-1000's would be a good fit, however extra frequencies is not something VS have the luxury of obtaining in the short/medium term, until/unless a 3rd LHR runway is built.

A 3rd LHR runway and extra A350's / frequencies would be ideal, however without that it is a lot more complicated. The 777X may make more sense in that instance, however that would mean losing the A380 deposits...

I guess Airbus will so whatever they could, to keep VS' A380 order. They already have a couple of empty production slots in the future...

Quoting Boeing74741R (Reply 3): The LGW-based 747s were re-fitted within the last 3 years and apart from the A380s (if that order is ever fulfilled) there's nothing else on order that could adequately replace them.

The trend is for smaller not larger in this market. BA does better with the B772 and VS are moving in the A333, so the idea of a like for like replacement seems unlikely. The LHR B744s are getting on a bit now, and a B77W would have been a better one for one swap but that's not going to happen now, the A388 is proving way too much aeroplane for BA, never mind VS.

Quoting United885 (Reply 6): I guess Airbus will so whatever they could, to keep VS' A380 order. They already have a couple of empty production slots in the future...

All slots until the end of 2018 are filled.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 8):

Sorry, i didn't know. How took the empty slots? EK?

Indeed, Emirates took the remaining slots.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 7):

I'm inclined to agree, but I don't think replacing a 744 with a 789 will be sufficient as it will still represent a huge drop in capacity. An A350-1000 would be a more suitable replacement for the 744s as it would still allow VS to right-size capacity on various routes out of LHR, LGW and MAN (and the seasonal GLA-MCO).

So what planes are they going to send to Asia after the A340-600s leave? Just 787s? Thats a big capacity decrease.

I believe they will have the wording '2 engines 4 long haul' painted on the side of their engines  

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 7):

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 7): the A388 is proving way too much aeroplane for BA, never mind VS.

Really ? How do you come to that conclusion ?

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 1): Given their irrational love of quads, I wouldn't be surprised if they drag a few Il-62s, Britannias, CV-990s and maybe a couple of Upper Class-only Lockheed JetStars (to compete with BA's Club World | London City product!) out of retirement. Why not? It makes as much sense as "4 engines 4 long haul"!

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 13): I believe they will have the wording '2 engines 4 long haul' painted on the side of their engines

Just my opinion, but it might be time to let the "4 engines" thing go. This is a slogan that was introduced over a decade ago and has long since disappeared!. It really is going for the low hanging fruit and it just isnt relevant anymore.

You could probably find an old slogan to beat most airlines over the head with but whats the point.

VS got a great deal on the A346 and they, obviously, went for a marketing slogan that played to one of the main features of the aeroplane. At the time the specifics of the deal meant that the aircraft was the best option. Things change and we all know that in most respects a B77W (or even A333) has it beat. I for one will be sorry when the last A346 goes.

Quoting cx flyboy (Reply 12): So what planes are they going to send to Asia after the A340-600s leave? Just 787s? Thats a big capacity decrease.

I think HKG will be one of, if not the last route to see the A346. Its is a perfect fit for the aircraft due to its cargo capabilities. I can see PVG and NRT going to the B789 fairly quickly though.

I think a few A346 will remain until a larger replacement aircraft can be introduced. Probably an A359 or A350-1000 but as mentioned above delivery slots are years away so it may well be that an interim solution is required.

The LGW B744 will be around for a while. They have an extremely competitive product and can make money. The capacity is needed for MCO, LAS and certain caribbean routes although UVF/ANU/GND do just fine with the A333.

I've said before that I don't beleive its a coincidence that the LHR B744 lease end dates coincide very closely with the theoretical A380 delivery slots. I'm not saying it will happen, just that its not a completely dead deal and the option is, at this time, still there.

I don't think its beyond the realms of possibility that VS could ultimately pick up some used B77W to replace the LGW (and even LHR) B744. There will be far larger numbers available on the used market as the first A350's become more common and they may well be worth looking at as the lease rates and purchase prices drop.

Obviously the A333 will be around for a while yet and will continue to operate to routes such as BOM/DEL/NYC/ORD/YVR and others.

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 4): The dreamliners are to replace all remaining 340s over a period of 18 months or so.

So no more A340s (both -300 and -600) with VS by the end of 2015?

Quoting B747forever (Reply 16): So no more A340s (both -300 and -600) with VS by the end of 2015?

Certainly by end 2016 as all leases will have expired (All are on 10 year contracts i understand)

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 17):

The A343 will certainly be gone but some of the newer A346 (which were about 4t lighter than the early ones) will be around until at least 2018

Quoting hibtastic (Thread starter): I guess the future fleet looks as though it will be made up of the 10 x A333s and the 787s. Could they convert their A380 orders to A35J's?

Last year, VS said the airline is currently focusing on A340 replacement with the arrival of the 787-9. The spokesman added the 747 / A380 will be addressed at a later stage, no decision has been taken yet. So everything remains speculation at this point.

787-9 delivery schedule (16 total):
9-2014
11-2014
12-2014
2-2015
4-2015
7-2015
8-2015
9-2015
10-2015
11-2015
12-2015
1-2016
2-2016
3-2016
4-2016
4-2016

I'm really hopeful VS will still take their 6 A380's to replace the LHR 744's come 2018.
Surely they can make them work on LAX/HKG/JFK plus seasonally to JNB and MIA ?

What makes you say that? The A346 is too big for many of their routes and the B744 means they have an expensive small subfleet that flies a lot of Y capacity about. HKG from an A346 to an A388 is unlikely as VS are focussing West on synergies with Delta. Premium customers want frequency from JFK not one off capacity hikes so that leaves A380s for LAX and MIA in high season. Um, that's about it. Hugely expensive capital expenditure for a less than flexible subfleet without the feed to fill it. They should have swapped the B744s for B77Ws a while back.

Some cheap end-of-line 777-300ERs may be the best bet for their 747-400 replacements.

Quoting TC957 (Reply 21): I'm really hopeful VS will still take their 6 A380's to replace the LHR 744's come 2018. Surely they can make them work on LAX/HKG/JFK plus seasonally to JNB and MIA ?

I think the DL buy-in into VS makes it more likely for the A380 to replace the LHR B744 on select routes. It will be a great competitive advantage for DL to offer the VS A380 product on high-end routes like LHR-JFK/LAX.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 7): the A388 is proving way too much aeroplane for BA,

Fluff and bluster !!

The A388 is proving its worth; premium loads and revenues have increased on every route flown by the A388. It has generated an interesting conundrum in that on, for example, HKG, people are selecting the 25/26 (and paying a premium) whilst the B772 rotation is not performing as well.

To say the A388 "is way too much aeroplane for BA" is factually incorrect.

Rgds

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 7): the A388 is proving way too much aeroplane for BA

The A380s at BA are not really adding capacity, they allow the airline to replace 3 747s with 2 A380s. So BA can fly the same amount of pax with significant cost reductions.

Quoting blueshamu330s (Reply 25): To say the A388 "is way too much aeroplane for BA" is factually incorrect.

  

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 26): The A380s at BA are not really adding capacity, they allow the airline to replace 3 747s with 2 A380s. So BA can fly the same amount of pax with significant cost reductions.

and the extra slot freed up by reducing frequency is also worth millions to BA.....

A380's seem to fit very well indeed.....

Quoting blueshamu330s (Reply 25): To say the A388 "is way too much aeroplane for BA" is factually incorrect.

Forgive me if I have ruffled feathers or caused offence, I over stated the case. Let me re-state, I understand the A388 does well but they're not too keen on expanding beyond current plans.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 26): The A380s at BA are not really adding capacity, they allow the airline to replace 3 747s with 2 A380s. So BA can fly the same amount of pax with significant cost reductions.

This is true, however we all know this is a few select routes and I am not sure if beyond those routes, of which JFK doesn't seem to be one, they'll be looking to add to them. It does seem to be a common theme with Air France and Lufthansa that it's not that easy to find a route that it does better than anything else.

Quoting blueshamu330s (Reply 25): The A388 is proving its worth; premium loads and revenues have increased on every route flown by the A388. It has generated an interesting conundrum in that on, for example, HKG, people are selecting the 25/26 (and paying a premium) whilst the B772 rotation is not performing as well.

Good point, it does well on this particular route, I wasn't too clear on what I really meant. Do you see all that many more routes where something B77W sized wouldn't be more useful?

So the 787 will be like for like replacements then? It would be great to see some growth in the form of new routes from VS at some point. Maybe an expansion at MAN for example?

Speaking of VS and the A380:

"U.K. billionaire Richard Branson’s Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd. still isn’t sure whether it will ever fly the world’s largest passenger plane as it prepares for delivery of its first Boeing Co. (BA) 787 Dreamliners.

“We have options for six A380s” from Airbus Group NV (AIR), Chief Executive Officer Craig Kreeger said today in a telephone interview. “We have deferred those a number of times and we haven’t yet decided what we will do when time comes for a terminate-the-batch decision.” "

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...rows-as-delta-accord-pays-off.html

From the same article:

"Virgin sliced its full-year loss in half as the carrier filled more premium economy seats and gained from new links with shareholder Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) The pretax loss was 51 million pounds ($85.7 million) before exceptional items, compared with a loss of 102 million pounds a year earlier"

"Virgin’s load factor, ... rose to 81.6 percent"   --I assume they mean full year LF%?

So:
2013 Full Year: -51 million pounds (-$85.7 million)
2012 Full Year: -102 million pounds

"main airline unit"
2013 Full Year: -39 million pounds
2012 Full Year: -124 million pounds

Does that mean Little Red isn't included in the "main airline unit" figures?
Also, how did they lose 22 million pounds more (-124) in at the "main airline unit" in 2012 as opposed to the -102 million pounds figure?

and finally:
"Profit at Virgin improved by about 20 million pounds in the three months through March [2014], compared with the same period a year ago"

All-in, sounds like positive results and momentum to me!
  

Quoting AirMailer (Reply 31): Does that mean Little Red isn't included in the "main airline unit" figures?

I presume it excludes things such as Virgin Holidays and the company they sold off - 360 Aerospace and any other companies under Virgin Atlantic.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/n...sses-halve-at-Virgin-Atlantic.html

This article mentions it was a 7M profit from March 2013 until December 2013. Given they are changing from APR-APR accounting to calendar year to match DL it confuses things a little.

Quote: The Virgin Group-controlled airline, which celebrates its 30th anniversary this year, made a pre-tax loss of £51m in the 12 months to December. Direct comparison for the prior year is made difficult due to a change in year-end - from February to December, bringing it in line with Virgin Group - but in the same period a year ago the loss was £102m on a pro-forma basis. The last reported annual loss - for the 12 months to February 2013 - was £128.4m before exceptionals. The airline emphasised that on a 10 month basis, from March to December 2013, the airline was profitable - before tax and exceptional items - to the tune of £7m.

Anyways - with 787's coming on line this year, retirements of the 343's as well as the implementation of the JV from January this year I would say they are on track to be back in the black for this year.

Quoting anstar (Reply 32):

Actually the financial year is changing from Feb to Feb, not Apr-Apr.

The £51m loss includes Jan/Feb 2013, which was also included in the 2012-2013 full year results as it's the only way to show a full year result, but those months had already been counted and presumably the money can't be lost twice!

The only way to get an accurate figure is to wait until next year, but taking the information that "losses halved" over the previous year, and the Mar-Dec figure of +£7m against a Dec-Dec figure of -£51m I get a "theoretical" full year result of -£29m or so.

This assuming a full year running Mar 13 - Feb 14 and is based solely on the information within the article.

The full Virgin release is here, which explains the year on year comparison:

http://www.virgin-atlantic.com/gb/en...inancial-results/_jcr_content.html

It's also worth noting that Virgin has only published results on a pre-exceptional items basis. The full accounts filed at Companies House should show the results post-exceptional items.

Whilst the results are an improvement, the original plan was to break even. When you consider that BA also made an operating profit of £651m in the same period, there is still a startling divergence between the financial performance of two airlines operating largely at the same hubs.

That said, I have no doubt Delta and the new management will turn things around.

Quoting sevenheavy (Reply 18): The A343 will certainly be gone but some of the newer A346 (which were about 4t lighter than the early ones) will be around until at least 2018

Could the VS A346 be reconfigured to have it's CASM improved?
The VS LHR configured A343 have 240 seats but the equivalent A333 has 266 seats, a 10.8% increase in an aircraft with the same width/length!!!!!!
Therefore it should be possible to improve the A346 from 308 seats to maybe 340??? This would greatly improve the A340 efficiencies

As for the A380 being too much aircraft for VS I would like comments on the following analysis;

LHR is not going to have a new runway anytime soon, the A380 is currently scheduled to be delivered from 2018 and would be kept for many years, therefore what VS needs is a B744 replacement fit for the 2020's. At present the LHR configured B744's have 367 seats. If VS (and DL) want just 2% growth p.a. with the current slot restrictions then by 2025 (in 11 years from now) they will need an LHR configured aircraft with 456 seats, and slightly more if they aim for more than 2% p.a. growth! BA's A380 has 469 seats.
Of course, if construction of the third runway is announced very soon after the 2015 UK General Election, and is built by 2023, then the A380 will defo' be too much aircraft for VS for the 2020's. Discuss.

Quoting boysteve (Reply 35): BA's A380 has 469 seats.

Those have a four-class cabin configuration. A typical three-class cabin configuration would give VS over 500 seats.

Quoting boysteve (Reply 35): Of course, if construction of the third runway is announced very soon after the 2015 UK General Election, and is built by 2023, then the A380 will defo' be too much aircraft for VS for the 2020's.

This is an oversimplification of the relationship between airport capacity and aircraft capacity. With more slots available, VS could find it suitable to cut flights to NYC so that they can use their aircraft for new destinations and deploy the A380 to adjust the capacity cuts.

Quoting boysteve (Reply 35):

The A333's increased capacity over the A343 is pretty much entirely due to the differences in Upper class.

On the A333 the configuration is 1-2-1, giving 33 seats in the first cabin between the 1 and 2 doors.

On the A343 the 34 seats are arranged in a 1-1-1 configuration, 25 seats between doors 1 and 2, and a further 9 seats behind row 2. The A333 gets around 26 premium economy seats in the same space.

The thing is, I think it HIGHLY unlikely that the A346 will be reconfigured with the UCS from the A333......

I personally think that the A35J and 777-9 would be good choices to replace the A346s and 744s  

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 39): I personally think that the A35J and 777-9 would be good choices to replace the A346s and 744s

A340-600s will be gone when 787-9s arrive.

Quoting boysteve (Reply 35): Could the VS A346 be reconfigured to have it's CASM improved?

They won't reconfigure anything on the 346. 6 Have left the fleet and the remaining 13 will be gone between 2016 and 2018.

Quoting boysteve (Reply 35): The VS LHR configured A343 have 240 seats but the equivalent A333 has 266 seats, a 10.8% increase in an aircraft with the same width/length!!!!!!

And the 343's will mostly be gone by year end too. They have 3 left now, another leaving around September and the remaining 2 will go as the 787's go into service from October.

Quoting AirMailer (Reply 30): “We have options for six A380s” from Airbus Group NV (AIR), Chief Executive Officer Craig Kreeger said today in a telephone interview. “We have deferred those a number of times and we haven’t yet decided what we will do when time comes for a terminate-the-batch decision.”

Am I the only one who thought VS order for the A380 was a firm order, not options?

Quoting Prost (Reply 42): Am I the only one who thought VS order for the A380 was a firm order, not options?

British people often use the term "options" as referral for their aircraft on order.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 43): Quoting Prost (Reply 42): Am I the only one who thought VS order for the A380 was a firm order, not options? British people often use the term "options" as referral for their aircraft on order.

As a British person, I am entirely sure that an "option" is very different to an "order". the two are not interchangeable and there's only one UK based airline that seems to disagree with this.

Here's a direct quote from the VS website

What aircraft does Virgin Atlantic have on order?
We currently operate Boeing 747 and Airbus A340 aircraft. We have also ordered six Airbus A380 aircraft, due to be delivered from 2015. These double-decker aircraft are the world's largest, and will enable us to introduce revolutionary on-board product and service innovations.

Ten Airbus A330-300s will also form part of our growing fleet from early 2011, whilst 15 of the new Boeing 787-9 Dreamliners will start operation across our network the same year.

Just remember that all these terms have differing meanings, the truth is probably close to:

Proposal- They've sent us an invitation to their stand at le Bourget
Letter of intent - We've had a meeting and haven't said no
Option - At the meeting we agreed to stay in touch
Order - We've agreed subject to future business needs, fuel prices, exchange rate fluctuations and anything
else we can think of
Deferral One of us is in the **** (or both)
penalty payment Some sort of offer that doesn't include hard cash

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 44): As a British person, I am entirely sure that an "option" is very different to an "order". the two are not interchangeable and there's only one UK based airline that seems to disagree with this.

Well, I have seen others using it as well.

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 44): Here's a direct quote from the VS website

Funny how out-dated that website is. A380s in 2015 and 787-9s in 2011? Sure   

The A380s will never arrive. They were a PR / ego purchase, nothing more, just like the sonic cruiser.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 43): British people often use the term "options" as referral for their aircraft on order.

Craig Kreeger, the VS CEO who has used the word "options" in relation to VS's 380s is not British. He is American.

Prior to joining VS in February last year Kreeger was Senior Vice President Customer Service at American Airlines. He had worked for AA for 27 years. Mostly he had been based at Fort Worth. However he did spend around six years based in London when be was AA's Senior Vice President International.