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nipoel123
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KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Thu May 01, 2014 7:02 am

According to an artikel on Luchtvaartnieuws.nl ( http://www.luchtvaartnieuws.nl/nl-NL...aanwinst_Dolfie_geland_op_Schiphol )(Dutch only), a decision for the replacement of the Fokker 70s is to be made by the end of this year. Offerings from Bombardier, Embraer, ATR and Mitsubishi are on the table.

So this means no Fokker NG (not that that was realistic, anyway), and I don't give ATR much of a chance, unless it's a split order between turboprop and jet aircraft. Embraers, for commonality, seem most likely to me.
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RussianJet
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Thu May 01, 2014 7:18 am

Quoting nipoel123 (Thread starter):
So this means no Fokker NG

It doesn't mean that at all - it was never happening, completely regardless of this bit of 'news'. I think you're probably right about Embraer though.
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AWACSooner
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Thu May 01, 2014 8:04 am

I'm gonna miss those jets...they were actually insanely comfortable to fly on.
 
EnviableOne
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Thu May 01, 2014 11:38 am

Quoting RussianJet (Reply 1):
It doesn't mean that at all - it was never happening, completely regardless of this bit of 'news'.

If KLM had put up a firm order for NGs it would have made them viable

Quoting nipoel123 (Thread starter):
Embraers, for commonality, seem most likely to me.

I agree, with the E190s replacing the 100s, we are talking either E170s or E175-E2s replacing the 70s
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MCOflyer
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Thu May 01, 2014 11:47 am

My money is on E-175 E2's for fleet commonality. I think anyone would be surprised if this goes to ATR or Mitsubishi.
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seahawk
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Thu May 01, 2014 12:02 pm

I hope ATRs, the F70 took over many F50 routes, so maybe a jet is a little too much. Maybe a mixed order of more EMBs and some ATRs.
 
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lollomz
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Thu May 01, 2014 12:13 pm

Too bad the Superjet is not an option......
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KarelXWB
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Thu May 01, 2014 1:09 pm

I doubt KLM will go for turboprop airplanes again. I recall reading they don't really want turboprops anymore so perhaps ATR is in the running to squash the price of the competitors a bit.

It's difficult to make a guess about fleet replacement without knowing the future route plans of KLM Cityhopper, but at least the E-175 E2 would provide fleet commonality.
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LH707330
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Thu May 01, 2014 5:20 pm

It might be a long shot, but I could see Q400s doing well as an F70 replacement. They're not much slower on those stage lengths, and use less fuel. The same could be said of the ATR-72 vs the Q400, but the ATR might be too slow on some of the longer legs.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 7):
I doubt KLM will go for turboprop airplanes again. I recall reading they don't really want turboprops anymore so perhaps ATR is in the running to squash the price of the competitors a bit.

Is this the usual "turboprops are clunky" argument?
 
RussianJet
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Thu May 01, 2014 6:56 pm

Quoting EnviableOne (Reply 3):

If KLM had put up a firm order for NGs it would have made them viable

Of course, but seeing as that has been viewed as incredibly unlikely (to put it generously) for some time now, I stand by my comment.
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KarelXWB
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Thu May 01, 2014 9:00 pm

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 8):
Is this the usual "turboprops are clunky" argument?

Don't shoot the messenger. I have nothing against turboprops.
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LH707330
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Thu May 01, 2014 10:14 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 10):
Don't shoot the messenger. I have nothing against turboprops.

Not suggesting you dislike them, I was referring to KLM disliking them:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 7):
I recall reading they don't really want turboprops

Do you know that KLM has an organizational dislike? I recall KLM cityhopper having Saab 340s and F50s back in the early 90s, wonder what changed it.
 
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larshjort
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Thu May 01, 2014 10:31 pm

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 11):

Do you know that KLM has an organizational dislike? I recall KLM cityhopper having Saab 340s and F50s back in the early 90s, wonder what changed it.


KLM has the largest Network to regional airports in UK/Norway/Denmark of the Airlines not based in those countries. Especially the flights to Norway are not suitable to operate with an ATR-72 unless you want to scare the business pax away.

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Viscount724
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Fri May 02, 2014 12:13 am

Quoting AWACSooner (Reply 2):
I'm gonna miss those jets...they were actually insanely comfortable to fly on.

And they've only very recently replaced the seats on the Fokker 70s with new lightweight seats (British-built I believe) that aren't as comfortable as the old seats but permit significantly more effective legroom even without any change in seat pitch. They're also quite a bit lighter than the old seats which must be the main reason for the change as they don't result in any increase in the number of seats.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Fri May 02, 2014 12:49 am

I'm surprised at today's fuel prices this took so long.

Quoting nipoel123 (Thread starter):
So this means no Fokker NG

It is a crowded market, look at the options:

Quoting nipoel123 (Thread starter):
Offerings from Bombardier, Embraer, ATR and Mitsubishi are on the table.

I see this is Embraer's to win unless they are greedy. Since it is yet to be certified, I doubt Mitsubishi has much of a chance... Bombardier and ATR are there to bid down prices, but could win if everyone else is greedy.

Quoting EnviableOne (Reply 3):
If KLM had put up a firm order for NGs it would have made them viable

Circular argument. It would have taken a viable Fokker NG for KLM to place the order....

Quoting lollomz (Reply 6):

Too bad the Superjet is not an option......

It missed economic targets. That hands the advantage to the other players.

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columba
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Fri May 02, 2014 6:35 am

Since they already have EJets in the fleet, Embraer seems to be in the lead. As this is meant to replace the F70 I guess the CSeries is not an option ? I
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factsonly
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Fri May 02, 2014 6:38 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 7):

I doubt KLM will go for turboprop airplanes again. I recall reading they don't really want turboprops anymore so perhaps ATR is in the running to squash the price of the competitors a bit.
Quoting LH707330 (Reply 8):
It might be a long shot, but I could see Q400s doing well as an F70 replacement. They're not much slower on those stage lengths, and use less fuel. The same could be said of the ATR-72 vs the Q400, but the ATR might be too slow on some of the longer legs.
Quoting LH707330 (Reply 11):
Do you know that KLM has an organizational dislike? I recall KLM cityhopper having Saab 340s and F50s back in the early 90s, wonder what changed it.

The NO turboprop argument is largely based on (1) aircraft performance and (2) hub capacity at AMS.

1. The KLC network knowns both long (AMS-FLR) and short (AMS-BRU) stage lengths. Turboprops are not flexible enough to cope with these variations in sector length, which would result in two distinct fleets for distinct routes, thus reducing fleet flexibility.

2. A re-introduction of (slower) turboprops also has a negative impact on airspace capacity in a busy hub airport environment. With AMS slots getting tighter and tighter in peak hours, KLM will not wish to pay the prize of fewer arrivals and departures as a result of the re-introduction of turboprops.

So very small chance of a re-introduction of turboprops, this replacement is Embraers to loose.
 
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Kiwirob
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Fri May 02, 2014 7:21 am

Quoting larshjort (Reply 12):
Especially the flights to Norway are not suitable to operate with an ATR-72 unless you want to scare the business pax away.

Why would you think that, WF fly all over the place in turboprops, it doesn't appear to be an issue for passangers.
 
tommy1808
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Fri May 02, 2014 7:25 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 5):
I hope ATRs, the F70 took over many F50 routes, so maybe a jet is a little too much. Maybe a mixed order of more EMBs and some ATRs.

Seems like a good idea, routings like AMS-HAJ (181nm) and AMS-BRE (153 nm) are a bit of a waste for a jet and cheap to operate Turboprops might make feeder hops like AMS-FMO (108nm) viable again. Air-side capacity is not really much of a limiting factor in AMS.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 7):
I recall reading they don't really want turboprops anymore so perhaps ATR is in the running to squash the price of the competitors a bit.

I guess it will come down to the average price per passenger carried in and out of their Hub. I don´t see them being like "ok, an ATR would do the job 8% cheaper than the cheapest yet, but we don´t really like turboprops..."

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 13):

And they've only very recently replaced the seats on the Fokker 70s with new lightweight seats (British-built I believe) that aren't as comfortable as the old seats but permit significantly more effective legroom even without any change in seat pitch.

I found them just as comfortable, on the other hand my HAJ-AMS hop isn´t really long...

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smbukas
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Fri May 02, 2014 12:42 pm

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 13):
And they've only very recently replaced the seats on the Fokker 70s with new lightweight seats (British-built I believe) that aren't as comfortable as the old seats but permit significantly more effective legroom even without any change in seat pitch.

The F70 replacement will not come fast - I think F70 will be used at least until 2017.

I think KLM has two viable options:
- just to find a "real" replacement, with similar capacity, like E175;
- re-think the regional route strategy and maybe to split operations between jets and turboprops. I this case they have to up gage longer routes to E190 (like all Scandinavia, South France, etc.) and introduce turboprops on routes up to 500km. It makes no sense to have 3 regional fleets (turboprop+smalljet+bigger jet) but it could make sense to have 1 turboprop and 1 jet.

Anyway, I put my bet on 1 option, KLM just to replace F70 to newer aicrafts. They could loose a lot of competitive advantage on going down from jet to turboprop (yes, airliners.net members might like turboprop but there is no turboprop in the market which could be more likeable for "normal average business passenger" then E-jet or CRJ).
 
Someone83
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Fri May 02, 2014 12:47 pm

Quoting larshjort (Reply 12):
Especially the flights to Norway are not suitable to operate with an ATR-72 unless you want to scare the business pax away.

A lot of these flight are mainly flown with the E-190 already.
 
MH017
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Fri May 02, 2014 4:47 pm

Quoting factsonly (Reply 16):
The KLC network knowns both long (AMS-FLR) and short (AMS-BRU) stage lengths

Don't forget AMS-BIO v.v. and AMS-ZAG v.v.

Wouldn't be surprised if they go for the Mitsubishi, as not to monopolize on Embraer, and as a launch customer in Europe...
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dmsolovyev
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Fri May 02, 2014 6:09 pm

Mitsubishi Regional Jet looks interesting, but I wouldn't bet on it. Mitsubishi has delayed its development so many times.

Overall I think they'll replace the old Fokkers by Embraer E-Jets (first or second generation)  
 
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frigatebird
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Sat May 03, 2014 5:15 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 7):
It's difficult to make a guess about fleet replacement without knowing the future route plans of KLM Cityhopper, but at least the E-175 E2 would provide fleet commonality.

I agree. But the E175-E2 won't be available until 2020, can KL wait that long? Since the F70s will get the new livery, this might be the case. first generation E17x might be cheap, but also have little resale value.

Personally I would love to see a MRJ order. But that would be a big gamble, not something I expect from KL.

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 8):






It might be a long shot, but I could see Q400s doing well as an F70 replacement

How many Q400s have been ordered the past couple of years? Even GA ordered ATR's with already CRJ-1000s in their fleet (was on one them last week, fantastic experience).
But I do wonder what type KL is looking at with BBD. CRJ? very doubtful. CSeries? I hope so!
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SASMD82
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Sat May 03, 2014 6:26 pm

This remains an interesting topic because for the current F70 routes (up to 1,500km), a turboprop would be sufficient. The ATR specifically would reduce fuel costs significantly but somehow (like the CRJ-1000 vs ERJ-190 comparison) in this case CASM doesn't seem to be the most important issue.

This remains the question why CASM plays a much more important role in long haul flights. Unlike wide bodied aircraft in the KL fleet, the F70 usually has between 8 and 10 take offs a day.

Personally I would prefer the CRJ900 though I admit this will be a highly unlikely choise. The MRJ is a no choice, like the SSJ. I doubt the choice for a Dash8 Q400 because the plane is already existant for a while. The ATR72-600 is a new radical update of the current ATR and seems to be the best choice (CASM orientated). But for fleet commonality (KL has 3 aircraft in thr 275-325 segment: MD-11 (or the 787-9), A330-300 and the 777-200), which would be a ridiculous argument thus, the ERJ175 would indeed be a perfect candidate to fly along with the ERJ190.

Will a choice of this order go hand by hand with Air France Hop! ? They need replacement to for many old aircraft.
 
YVRLTN
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Sat May 03, 2014 10:17 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 14):
Circular argument. It would have taken a viable Fokker NG for KLM to place the order....

Pan Am and Boeing re the 747 - you build it, I'll buy it - you buy it, I'll build it!   But no.

Quoting factsonly (Reply 16):
1. The KLC network knowns both long (AMS-FLR) and short (AMS-BRU) stage lengths. Turboprops are not flexible enough to cope with these variations in sector length, which would result in two distinct fleets for distinct routes, thus reducing fleet flexibility.

Im not sure, the F50 seemed to work fine until quite recently and the Q400 is a lot more capable than the F50. The sectors in question are so congested I dont think there will be too much impact. A lot of the short routes will probably be far more economically run by a Q400 rather than a jet, but the superior perforamce is why the Q400 would be a front runner over the ATR in this case IMO.

Quoting factsonly (Reply 16):
2. A re-introduction of (slower) turboprops also has a negative impact on airspace capacity in a busy hub airport environment

There are already plenty of turboprops in Europe,

Quoting factsonly (Reply 16):
this replacement is Embraers to loose.

I agree, but I would not rule out the Q400 based on not being able to get them soon and the E2 will be too far out for them as a F70 replacement, why get the current gen? (Unless on a short term lease arrangement - maybe Flybe will be willing to talk   ).

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 23):
How many Q400s have been ordered the past couple of years?

Not as many as ATR's obviously, but new small orders from new customers continue to trickle in. ATR's are mainly selling in developing countries where the operating conditions are very different than the aforementioned congestion and need for speed in Europe, and for the first time in large numbers to lessors.

Quoting SASMD82 (Reply 24):
Will a choice of this order go hand by hand with Air France Hop! ? They need replacement to for many old aircraft.

One would think so - and they have lots of Embraers. But also ATR's. Can not imagine AF buying anything other than ATR, but they have one or two Boeing's so who knows.
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Someone83
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Sun May 04, 2014 7:46 am

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 23):
I agree. But the E175-E2 won't be available until 2020, can KL wait that long? Since the F70s will get the new livery, this might be the case. first generation E17x might be cheap, but also have little resale value.

It should be able to lease some E175 for a decent rate untill then
 
factsonly
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RE: KLM Fokker 70 Replacement

Sun May 04, 2014 10:35 am

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 23):

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 7):
It's difficult to make a guess about fleet replacement without knowing the future route plans of KLM Cityhopper, but at least the E-175 E2 would provide fleet commonality.

I agree. But the E175-E2 won't be available until 2020, can KL wait that long? Since the F70s will get the new livery, this might be the case.

In 2020 the Fokker 70 of KLM will be around 25 years old, not yet excessive for an airframe. As long as the engineering support an spares availability don't drive Fokker's reliability and maintenance costs excessively high, one can expect KLM to stick it out if the new airframe delivers great benefits.

The Fokker 70 airframes are build for very high cycles (90.000 minimum), so it should be no problem to keep these aircraft operational until this time frame.

And if the new Embraer E175-E2 is a progressive development of the 15 year old E190 design, the fleet commonality between E190 and the E175-E2 will be limited, making an all new airframe less of an issue. Perhaps common pilot type rating will become a bigger deciding factor.

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