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LipeGIG
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MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 1:47 pm

Link to the last thread:
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 58 (by wilco737 Apr 27 2014 in Civil Aviation)


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%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

Due to length part 57 was locked for further contributions. Please feel free to continue your discussion in part 58.



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Finn350
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 1:59 pm

As a summary from the end of the last part, the official interim report and other information has been published in the Facebook page of Mr Hishammuddin Hussein, the Minister of Defence & Minister of Transport (Acting) of the Malaysia Government.

http://www.facebook.com/HishammuddinH2O

The report in itself contains very little new information, but there are several Facebook photos revealing the assumed route and cargo manifests of the MH370 among other things.

The most important images:

http://oi61.tinypic.com/imqqz6.jpg
http://oi61.tinypic.com/2ymiwps.jpg
http://oi61.tinypic.com/14uwg9f.jpg

Regarding the first part of the flight, the position of the last military radar detection at 0222 Z has been updated. The inconsistency of that point caused a lot of confusion here.

Regarding the last part of the flight into the southern Indian Ocean, 5 tracks have been plotted in the ground (?) speed range of 323...350 kn. No grounds for the speed selection have been given, but it might be related to the Burst Frequency Offset analysis combined with the aircraft performance and endurance data.

EDIT: The pictures above and the cargo manifestos along with the passenger list has been published 1 hr ago according to the Facebook information.

[Edited 2014-05-01 07:07:02]
 
LTC8K6
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 2:08 pm

"MAS OPS Centre informed KL-ATCC MH370 in normal condition based
on signal download giving coordinate N14.90000 E109 15 00 at time
1833 UTC."

I presume that is where MH370 should have been at that time if the flight was normal?

Off the central Vietnam coast?

[Edited 2014-05-01 07:12:31]
 
 
Pihero
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 2:15 pm

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 1):

EDIT: The pictures above and the cargo manifestos along with the passenger list has been published 1 hr ago according to the Facebook information.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 263):
Quoting Dalavia (Reply 262):
Flight path photos can be seen at https://www.facebook.com/HishammuddinH2O/photos_stream

Thanks again. Those pictures contain a lot of new information, including the assumed path and cargo manifestos!

Hold on a few secs !
These were Hussein's re-constructions published about three weeks ago. The cargo manifest is even older. ( Remember the rotting mangosteen fire theory ? )

these are not part of the official prelim report
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WarrenPlatts
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 2:15 pm

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 1):
Regarding the last part of the flight into the southern Indian Ocean, 5 tracks have been plotted in the ground (?) speed range of 323...350 kn. No grounds for the speed selection have been given, but it might be related to the Burst Frequency Offset analysis combined with the aircraft performance and endurance data.

This is what puzzles me.

Q: Why so slow? Is it not possible for the 9M-MRO to fly for 7 1/2 hours on 49,100 kg of jet fuel at cruising speeds?

[Edited 2014-05-01 07:19:14]
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 2:17 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 4):
Hold on a few secs !
These were Hussein's re-constructions published about three weeks ago.

They were just posted on his fb page about an hour ago as of this posting. Are you sure they are not revisions?
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 2:18 pm

Some more new Facebook photos for the benefit of non-Facebook users

Actions taken between 01:38 and 06:14 on Saturday 8 March

http://oi60.tinypic.com/6oom02.jpg
http://oi60.tinypic.com/2cekxf.jpg

Quoting Pihero (Reply 4):
Hold on a few secs !
These were Hussein's re-constructions published about three weeks ago. The cargo manifest is even older. ( Remember the rotting mangosteen fire theory ? )

Can you quote a source for that, either in the internet or in the previous parts of this thread?

I have been following this thread quite closely and have not ever seen either the reconstructed paths above or the actual cargo manifestos before. I know there was *talk* about mangosteens but not the actual cargo manifestos before as far as I am aware. Similarly, the assumed path images are new. And according to the Facebook metadata, they have been posted 1 hr ago just *after* the interim report.

[Edited 2014-05-01 07:23:11]
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 2:20 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 5):
Q: Why so slow? Is it not possible for the 9M-MRO to fly for 7 1/2 hours on 41,900 kg of jet fuel at cruising speeds?

No one has provided endurance graphs for the 772 with those engines that I know of. They have an optimal altitude and speed for maximum efficiency - every engine does, aircraft or otherwise.

Flying low, flying slow, in any dirty configuration, etc etc can have a massive effect on endurance.

Unfortunately we just don't know anything about that right now. We know the plane was talking when the partial handshake was made. That's about it.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
Pihero
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 2:47 pm

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 7):

Can you quote a source for that, either in the internet or in the previous parts of this thread?

I saw the *manifest* ( not *manifestO* btw ) very early on another site and after seeing that there was no indication of possible hazardous cargo, completely forgot it.
The re-constructions try to fit the knowledge of the general search area with some impressive computation and thoroughness, though. ( I wrote too quickly, putting them in the samle basket as the manifest , sorry ! )

Had these been part of the prelim, the document would have been labelled as *Attachments*, which they are not..
I would think that the official documents would be done on something more accurate than Google Earth.
But these maps are quite intersting in that they show immensely slower speeds than some are thinking of.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 2):
"MAS OPS Centre informed KL-ATCC MH370 in normal condition based
on signal download giving coordinate N14.90000 E109 15 00 at time
1833 UTC."
I presume that is where MH370 should have been at that time if the flight was normal?

Yes see the (03:30) time stamp above :
"... the flight tracker information is based on flight projection and not reliable for aircraft positioning "...
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Backseater
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 2:48 pm

Quote:
FLY744 post #250 in part58
but there is another radar on top of Penang Hill on Penang island. It is sited about 2 kilometres west of the Bellevue Hotel at an elevation of 800 metres (2,650 feet). That site clearly (no pun intended) provides a much better radar view across the peninsula and out across the Straits of Malacca. It kind of complicates the issue of attempting to avoid radar coverage.

You are absolutely right. I also stumbled on that very capable radar (due to its location) when proposing my low level flight theory in post #107 part 48

Quote:
BackSeater post # 107 in part 48
In various news reports, I could only find references to Butterworth AB and Kota Bharu radar. The Kota Bharu radar is on the airport next to the runwy at 6 9.819N 102 17.621E on a metal tower. I assume it is a civilian radar only.

In the sector of interest for MH370, I found two other very capable radars probably in the ARSR-4 class (en-route radar) or AN/FPS-130 (military version of the same). I would guess that their data is used jointly by ATC and the Malaysian Air Force since they are stacked beam radars that rotate continuously,

They are very capable because they are located on top of small mountains, with a 360 field of view:
- the first one is on the island of Pulau Pinang, 8 miles SW of Buterworth AB at 5 25.478N 100 15.052N. approx alt. 2700ft, 58ft radome.
- the second one is 28nm SE of Kota Bharu at 5 47.148N 102 30.264E, approx alt 560ft, 70ft radome.

I have not seen any report involving those two radars:
- If they were operating and if their raw data was logged even if the associated military centers were not manned during the night (someone mentioned that on a blog but I can't find that quote again), then I believe that MH370 could not have flown westbound across Malaysia without being tracked often, even at low altitude.
- if RMAF did not record their primary data, then a well planned, low altitude flight across Malaysia followed by a sea skimming (1,000ft?) flight over the Strait of Malacca until reaching the 285 radial from Butterworth, 36nm out, would have made MH370 essentially invisible during that period.

My reasoning at the time was driven by the radar plot shown in Beijing entitled "Military radar from Pulau Perak to last plot at 02;22H", trying to explain why a primary radar would miss a T7 with its huge RCS. My only explanation was that the a/c must have flown at times below the radar horizon and at other times it must have been teetering on the edge of the radar horizon yielding the erratic reports shown on the plot. That is how I came to propose that MH370 must have been flying at a very low level over the Strait of Malacca essentially on an arc around Penang followed by a climb to 32,000ft away from Penang.

To make that scenario work, I had to posit that only Butterworth AB was operating that night as primary radar.

Notice that in the preliminary report published today by the Malaysian authorities, there is no radar data to speak of except for 1 civil radar point east of Malaysia and two defense radar points west and none on the westbound track across Malaysia. But we were gladly given every sheet of the cargo manifest down to a fraction of a pound.

One more reason that leads me to believe that crucial information must lie within the collection of raw radar plots that have not been properly documented and published so far. They are just raw data. They do not call for any interpretation so why are they not in the preliminary report together with the cargo manifest?
 
aftgaffe
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 2:54 pm

We also don't *know* that the plane crashed because of starvation, do we?

For example, something could have caused a/p to disconnect (perhaps something also related to the partial handshake) and the plane could have rolled into a spin.

Edit* I meant something other than starvation could have caused a/p to disconnect.

[Edited 2014-05-01 07:56:03]
 
lancelot07
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 3:06 pm

Quoting aftgaffe (Reply 11):
We also don't *know* that the plane crashed because of starvation, do we?

No, we don't really know.
But with the numbers from 7BOEING7 in part 58 #243 we know that the plane must have been close to runnuing out of fuel.

Quote:
Reply 243, posted Wed Apr 30 2014 11:12:40 your local time (11 hours 24 minutes 46 secs ago) and read 3774 times:

LRC (Long Range Cruise) at FL350, weight 240,000 kg you burn about 3,645 kg/eng

Holding speed at 10,000 ft, weight 240,000 kg you burn about 3,295 kg/eng
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 3:14 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 9):
The re-constructions try to fit the knowledge of the general search area with some impressive computation and thoroughness, though. ( I wrote too quickly, putting them in the samle basket as the manifest , sorry ! )

Looking at the reconstructed flight paths, they are defined as follows (captions at 00:11 and 00:19:29 points):

323 kts, 2754 / 2796 nm, 30.000 ft (2709 nm at 00:11)
325 kts, 2766 nm (2720 nm at 00:11)
332 kts, 2807 / 2546 nm, 15.000 ft (2760 nm at 00:11)
344 kts, 2878 / 2113 nm, 3.000 ft (2869 nm at 00:11)
350 kts, 2913 nm (2864 nm at 00:11)

Who cracks this code? Small variations in ground speed correspond to vast variations in the assumed (00:19 Z ???) altitude?

And this is the explanation from the Facebook:

Quote:
The attached map shows MH370’s flight path, based on the best available knowledge of the investigation team. There are a number of possible flight paths to the southern Indian Ocean, and three boxes indicating where MH370 likely ended. These flight paths differ based on different projections of the aircraft’s speed, shown on the map in knots.


[Edited 2014-05-01 08:16:08]

[Edited 2014-05-01 08:24:41]
 
hivue
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 3:15 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 9):
But these maps are quite intersting in that they show immensely slower speeds than some are thinking of.

Not the speeds one would expect a pilot in control of the A/C (via AP, FMC, or whatever) would fly in cruise?
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
LTC8K6
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 3:23 pm

There were a lot of lithium batteries aboard.

5,400 pounds worth or thereabouts

Quote:

133 PACKAGES total 1990KGS is roughly 15kg each package

and

67 loose packages total 463 kg average 7kg each package
 
Pihero
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 3:36 pm

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 13):
Who cracks this code? Small variations in ground speed correspond to vast variations in the assumed (00:19 Z ???) altitude?
Quoting hivue (Reply 14):
Not the speeds one would expect a pilot in control of the A/C (via AP, FMC, or whatever) would fly in cruise?

you are both into something :
The absolute minimum speed -no margin at all on stall buffet at FL 350 for this airplane is IAS 210 / TAS 372 kt which correponds to a Mach of .63.
( From a 772 FCOM )...
... and yet, it has to end in the search areas !... and not 1400 nautical miles away !

Interesting, isn't it ?
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Pihero
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 3:42 pm

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 15):
5,400 pounds worth or thereabouts

You're correct. But a cargo hold fire can't really explain the rest of the events :
- The crew would have time to initiate an emergency return
OR the fire was too sudden and catastrophic to destroy the aircraft there and then : it wouldn't have gone anywhere but the southern China sea.

- Otherwise the holds are very well protected ( ETOPS regulations ) and they would have plen,tyu of time to land safely.

At least IMHO.

[Edited 2014-05-01 08:59:53]
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asetiadi
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 3:49 pm

Hoak or not, I believe they have to check on what Georesonance have found. They have to take a look because it's been about 6 weeks searching in Australia and lack of result. Again as far as I can see, The plane can still be anywhere as we have no idea where it is.
 
Pihero
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 3:56 pm

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 13):
Looking at the reconstructed flight paths, they are defined as follows (captions at 00:11 and 00:19:29 points):

323 kts, 2754 / 2796 nm, 30.000 ft (2709 nm at 00:11)

Thanks for taking the time to read these graphs.
That very first line is an impossibility at 30,000 ft as it amounts to an IAS of 200 kt / Mach .54
The same graph as above gives a minimum of IAS 208 kt / Mach .575 / TAS 342 kt

Even curioser.

[Edited 2014-05-01 09:44:46]
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Backseater
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 4:01 pm

Per ICAO regulations:
- do associated safety boards (NTSB, AAIB, BEA) have access to every piece of raw data that the main Investigator collects, obtains or generates?
- do they receive raw data systematically?
- do they have to request each item of raw data specifically ?
- can the main Investigator hide or refuse to share some raw data? Under what pretext(s)?
 
hivue
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 4:03 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 16):
Interesting, isn't it ?
Quoting Pihero (Reply 19):
Even curioser.

Definitely. But why do I get this uneasy feeling that these "interesting" speeds are going to go the way of so much other supposedly factual supposedly official info about this accident?   
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 4:13 pm

Does anyone else find it odd that the end points of the tracks are labelled:

Highest probability - red
Lowest probability - yellow
Mid probability - green

Something must be labelled wrong; if I had to guess, they probably switched the mid and lowest labels.

Also, they seem to have "updated" the position at last radar contact in the Straits. Warren Platts was correct (on this particular point...)

Quoting Pihero (Reply 19):
Even curioser.

I suppose these speeds could be referring to prior segments of the flight, after turning across Malaysia and in the Straits. These would determine the amount of fuel available for the southbound leg. (would it kill the investigating authorities to publish their KML file, rather than screenshots?)
 
BruceSmith
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 4:22 pm

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 15):
There were a lot of lithium batteries aboard.

5,400 pounds worth or thereabouts

Quote:

133 PACKAGES total 1990KGS is roughly 15kg each package

and

67 loose packages total 463 kg average 7kg each package

That's a single consignment form indicating that the consignment contains Li batteries. It could be the entire weight is batteries, or it could be that part of the consignment is electronics, e,g, laptops, cell phones, that have Li batteries in the box, but most of the weight is the non battery part. I don't think we can conclude that there was 1453kgs of Li batteries in the cargo, just that there were some.
 
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Gonzalo
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 4:31 pm

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 7):
Actions taken between 01:38 and 06:14 on Saturday 8 March

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but reading that sequence it seems like the KL and HCM controllers never started the Oceanic Emergency Procedures ( Incerfa, Alerfa, Detresfa ). They lost hours, literally the earlier and more important hours ( when MH370 was still relatively close ) chatting with MAS OPS and trying to figure out ( guess ) where MH370 was, they even ask the same things several times.

10-6-2. PHASES OF EMERGENCY

Emergency phase INCERFA is described as follows:

a. Uncertainty phase (INCERFA). When there is concern about the safety of an aircraft or its occupants, an INCERFA exists:

1. When communication from an aircraft has not been received within 30 minutes after the time a communication should have been received or after the time an unsuccessful attempt to establish communication with such aircraft was first made, whichever is earlier.

Rgds.
G.

[Edited 2014-05-01 09:33:59]
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Summa767
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 4:33 pm

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 22):
Also, they seem to have "updated" the position at last radar contact in the Straits. Warren Platts was correct (on this particular point...)

WarrenPlatts has insisted that there was an inconsistency in the previously shown, and he has been proved right.

In other matter, the audio of MH370/ATC communications and that was played to families a couple of days ago, has been released:
A 4 min version can be heard here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-with-air-traffic-controllers.html

The BBC has a more succinct version of the last communications (not sure if available outside of the UK): http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-27238435
 
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ssteve
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 4:34 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 19):
That very first line is an impossibility at 30,000 ft as it amounts to an IAS of 200 kt / Mach .54
The same graph as above gives a minimum of IAS 208 kt / Mach .575.

Fairly safe to assume the kts are groundspeed, then. The satellite doesn't care about airspeed.
 
LTC8K6
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 4:54 pm

Quoting BruceSmith (Reply 23):

Seems like it must be just batteries because it says IP 965 and not 966?
 
Pihero
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 5:01 pm

Quoting BruceSmith (Reply 23):
That's a single consignment form indicating that the consignment contains Li batteries. It could be the entire weight is batteries, or it could be that part of the consignment is electronics, e,g, laptops, cell phones, that have Li batteries in the box,

   Correct.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 22):
Also, they seem to have "updated" the position at last radar contact in the Straits. Warren Platts was correct (on this particular point...)

Once again, it is not an official release, an attachment to the prelim report : It is the work of a dedicated author who is free to interpret news as he likes it.

(This is - again - the result of most people immediately jumping on any new piece of information before it is officially confirmed or denied or corrected ).

The real piece of news is as follows : " A playback of a recording from military primary radar revealed that an aircraft with a possibility of MH370 had made an air-turn back onto a westerly course crossing Peninsular Malaysia ."
That's all.
No mention of any * possible * plots from Butterworth or anywhere else... Just " a westerly course crossing Peninsular Malaysia ".
That seems to me a * FACT *.
Further down the text : " ...last ACARS message occurred at 1:07:29 MYT, the last secondary radar detection at 1:21:13 and the last satellite cxommuniocation at 08:19..."
No mention of a solid military radar position, is there ?

[Edited 2014-05-01 10:13:36]

[Edited 2014-05-01 10:15:36]
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LTC8K6
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 5:06 pm

http://www.iata.org/whatwedo/cargo/d...acking-Instructions-965-970-EN.pdf

965 batteries
966 batteries with equipment
967 batteries contained in equipment

Paperwork says 965

[Edited 2014-05-01 10:07:20]
 
Pihero
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 5:16 pm

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 29):
965 batteries
966 batteries with equipment
967 batteries contained in equipment

Paperwork says 965

That seems to me like a lot for a passenger airplane.
I'll have a looK on the limitations.

[Edited 2014-05-01 10:34:30]
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JHwk
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 5:20 pm

Any explanation as to why the center of the probable location of crash is least likely?
 
shortstack81
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 5:25 pm

Quoting asetiadi (Reply 18):
Hoak or not, I believe they have to check on what Georesonance have found. They have to take a look because it's been about 6 weeks searching in Australia and lack of result.

I don't think Georesonance has found anything at all. They've claimed to find things in the past, like the long-lost SS Armenia. The Armenia is still lost.

Their claimed capabilities are not possible. Star Trek like sensors have not been invented yet. (they're getting there, but not yet.)

http://beta.slashdot.org/submission/3526111
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/debunked-exploration-company-georesonance-believes-it-may-have-found-mh370.3558/page-2

is it worth looking? maybe. but I'd say it's a waste of time.
 
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 5:26 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 28):
Once again, it is not an official release, an attachment to the prelim report : It is the work of a dedicated author who is free to interpret news as he likes it.

This is a direct quote from the Facebook page of Mr Hishammuddin Hussein, the Minister of Defence & Minister of Transport (Acting) of the Malaysia Government. For all practical purposes, the maps are part of an offical release, i.e. part of an official press statement of the Minister.

Quote:
MH370 PRESS STATEMENT BY HISHAMMUDDIN HUSSEIN
MINISTER OF DEFENCE AND ACTING MINISTER OF TRANSPORT
THURSDAY, 1 MAY 2014


1. Release of information regarding MH370

Last week, the Prime Minister appointed an internal team of experts to review all the information the Government of Malaysia possesses regarding MH370, with a view to releasing as much as possible to the general public.

The Prime Minister set, as a guiding principle, the rule that as long as the release of a particular piece of information does not hamper the investigation or the search operation, in the interests of openness and transparency, the information should be made public.

The internal team has concluded its review. As a result, the following information regarding MH370 is being released:

The audio recordings of conversations between the cockpit of MH370 and Kuala Lumpur air traffic control (see notes to editors).
The preliminary report into MH370, dated 9 April.
An additional document, which gives further information regarding the actions taken between the hours of 01:38 and 06:14 on Saturday 8 March.
A map showing MH370’s flight path (also see notes to editors).
The cargo manifest for MH370.
The seating plan for MH370.

2. The military’s tracking of MH370

As stated previously, Malaysian military radar did track an aircraft making a turn-back, in a westerly direction, across peninsular Malaysia on the morning of 8 March. The aircraft was categorised as friendly by the radar operator and therefore no further action was taken at the time.

The radar data was reviewed in a playback at approximately 08:30 on 8 March. This information was sent to the Air Force operations room at approximately 09:00. Following further discussion up the chain of command, the military informed the Acting Transport and Defence Minister Hishammuddin Hussein at approximately 10:30 of the possible turn-back of the aircraft. The Minister then informed the Prime Minister, who immediately ordered that search and rescue operations be initiated in the Straits of Malacca, along with the South China Sea operations which started earlier in the day.

During this time, KD Mahamiru, the Mine Counter Measure Vessel and KD Laksamana Muhamad Amin, the Corvette Vessel of the Royal Malaysian Navy were already in the Straits of Malacca on patrol duties. They were immediately retasked to conduct the search and rescue operation. A military aircraft was then sent to join the two ships in the Straits of Malacca at 10:54 to search for MH370.

NOTES TO EDITORS

a. The audio recordings consist of five files which should be listened to in sequence.

b. The attached map shows MH370’s flight path, based on the best available knowledge of the investigation team. There are a number of possible flight paths to the southern Indian Ocean, and three boxes indicating where MH370 likely ended. These flight paths differ based on different projections of the aircraft’s speed, shown on the map in knots.

c. The attached preliminary report was drafted with the involvement of the NTSB, AAIB, ATSB, AAID and CAAC, as well as Malaysian officials.

-ENDS-


[Edited 2014-05-01 10:27:17]

[Edited 2014-05-01 10:31:51]
 
Pihero
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 5:51 pm

So...
There is an official preliminary report, but...
there is another official declaration that in ways contradict the prelimlinary report, but gives more information on the flight documents... but it's not attached to the report submitted to ICAO...

It , very importantly, gives a lot more credence to the radar data (updated or not ) than the prelim's authors... not surprisingly it comes from the Defence Ministry.

Curiouser and curiouser....  

If it hadn't seemed so earlier, this is now a farce of political in-fighting and a*** covering in Malaysia.

Quite sad.

And yes, that map seems to confirm WP's allegations... It doesn't make his work more exact : we still have a 1400 nautical miles error to account for.

(edit ) : I love the wording of the last paragraph :"c. The attached preliminary report was drafted with the involvement of the NTSB, AAIB, ATSB, AAID and CAAC, as well as Malaysian officials.",
contrarily to : b. The attached map shows MH370’s flight path, based on the best available knowledge of the investigation team. ( just *investigation team* ... no names and no NTSB... etc... mention )

[Edited 2014-05-01 10:55:58]

[Edited 2014-05-01 10:57:28]

[Edited 2014-05-01 11:00:08]
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zeke
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 6:08 pm

Quoting SSTeve (Reply 26):
Fairly safe to assume the kts are groundspeed, then. The satellite doesn't care about airspeed.

They are indeed, it would tend to indicate the aircraft was below 20,000 ft. The arcs depicted cannot be valid as the ground speed in the satellite reference frame (the measured doppler shift is in that reference frame) is constantly changing due to upper level winds, As the aircraft came closer to Australia on the day, the ground speed would have reduced for a given TAS.
“Don't be a show-off. Never be too proud to turn back. There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.” E. Hamilton Lee, 1949
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 6:19 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 34):
There is an official preliminary report, but...there is another official declaration that in ways contradict the prelimlinary report, but gives more information on the flight documents... but it's not attached to the report submitted to ICAO...

The interim report is dated April 9th, so it is more than three weeks old. It is very possible that they had a new version of the interim report in the works. However, as CNN pushed the Malaysian PM to promise the publishing of the interim report this week, they ran out of time refining the new report and decided to publish the old interim report plus some attachments.

Not ideal, but at least we have the track assumed by the investigation team.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 34):
(edit ) : I love the wording of the last paragraph :"c. The attached preliminary report was drafted with the involvement of the NTSB, AAIB, ATSB, AAID and CAAC, as well as Malaysian officials.",
contrarily to : b. The attached map shows MH370’s flight path, based on the best available knowledge of the investigation team. ( just *investigation team* ... no names and no NTSB... etc... mention )

True. However, they have invested $50 million in searching mostly the 'highest probability area' and are about to commit another $50 million for searching that particular area. I suppose that the assumed track has been quite heavily peer revieved by the NTSB, AAIB etc. although it is not explicitly mentioned.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 22):
I suppose these speeds could be referring to prior segments of the flight, after turning across Malaysia and in the Straits.

I think the speed in the prior segment (1721 Z - 1827 Z) must be much higher than 350 kn, as the track must be around 500 nm (it was around 600 nm to a more northern turning point, I haven't looked at the distance to the new south turning).

However, 350 kn can still be an average ground speed for the last part of the flight, even if the very last minutes are flown at a higher speed (but that doesn't make much sense either).

[Edited 2014-05-01 11:24:06]
 
hivue
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 6:23 pm

Quoting JHwk (Reply 31):
Any explanation as to why the center of the probable location of crash is least likely?

Only one of the depicted ground tracks (however they were determined) terminates in the yellow (center) area, and that at its northern edge.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 6:26 pm

Re: The Slow Speeds

Initial Phase Update:

Here is my latest plot incorporating yesterday's suggestions from Mandala, Pihero, and Finn. It also incorporates an overlay of the Hishammuddin Initial phase flight path.

http://i.imgur.com/yC467dN.png

As you'll recall, I divided the initial phase track into 3 legs:

1. KUL to IGARI
2. IGARI to Pulau Perak
3. Pulau Perak to the 18:27 ping arc LOP

Things to note:

IGARI to Pulau Perak: I believe they've got their IGARI plotted in the wrong spot. My red line is exactly over the AES recording that Finn provided yesterday. I calculate an average velocity for Hishammuddin's 2nd leg on my Excel spreadsheet of 468.5 knots. However, I do not place a lot of stock in this value as I believe the track itself is somewhat in error. My value still remains 490.6 knots.

(Do not place any significance on the decimals: I'm just including them so you can know for sure if you have replicated my results should you desire to.)

However, note that both paths follow waypoints. Hishammuddin's goes through ABTOK, there is a very slight course correction, and then it hits VPG. Mine goes through VKB, then VPG. And there are not a million waypoints over the jungles of the Malay Peninsula. This is consistent with 9M-MRO navigating in RNAV mode.

Pulau Perak to 18:27 position: Here the track is highly constrained by the known radar, so both of our tracks are quite close to each other. I measure 204 nm for mine, 205 nm for Hishammuddin's. The calculated respective velocities are 489.6 and 492 nm. Cruising speed, in other words.

Note also that she continues to fly a waypoint path: VPG VAMPI MEKAR NILAM. This is evidence that she is flying in RNAV mode.

Other than the fact that she is a stolen airliner, all outward conditions are normal.

The wild departure at 18:27: This is where Hishammuddin's track and mine split apart. I believe that NILAM is the more logical place to turn, as it is at a major airway crossroad, and the Inmarsat Doppler event initiates at about 18:25.

However, on Hishammuddin's track(s), they all turn the south at 18:27, and the velocities slow down to the low 300's knots. The question is Why......

This is where a little philosophy of science comes in handy:

Here is how it works: first you decide to treat the object whose behavior is to be predicted as a rational agent; then you figure out what beliefs that agent ought to have, given its place in the world and its purpose. Then you figure out what desires it ought to have, on the same considerations, and finally you predict that this rational agent will act to further its goals in the light of its beliefs. A little practical reasoning from the chosen set of beliefs and desires will in most instances yield a decision about what the agent ought to do; that is what you predict the agent will do. (p. 17. Daniel Dennett The Intentional Stance 1971).

The initial phase of the flight gives all the indications of purpose. Therefore, we should decide that 9M-MRO is a rational agent or "intentional system" in Dennett's parlance. This will allow us to predict her behavior.

Note that I make NO hypotheses about who or what is in charge. The airliner itself could have been taken over by a demon Stephen King Carrie-style for all I care.

Following Dennet, what are her beliefs? She believes that flying in RNAV mode at cruising speed is the proper behavior for an airliner. What is her goal? To land not in Beijing, but simply to land somewhere in the middle of the Indian Ocean.

So why would she radically change her behavior at the very moment that she crosses a major airway that leads out just to where she "wants" to go?!?

I can think of only one good reason: that for some reason they believe that a B777-200ER (ER stands for extended range) at cruising speeds cannot last for 7.5 hours on 49,100 kg of jet fuel. In fact, the graphs imply that the slower you go, the easier it is to make it, and that the probability of making it for 7.5 hours decreases (linearly?) as you increase speed.

This is where you aviation guys could make a positive contribution, if you can get past your personal animosities, because I have no idea how to crack this nut.

Thanks.
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 6:31 pm

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 20):
Per ICAO regulations:
- do associated safety boards (NTSB, AAIB, BEA) have access to every piece of raw data that the main Investigator collects, obtains or generates?
- do they receive raw data systematically?
- do they have to request each item of raw data specifically ?
- can the main Investigator hide or refuse to share some raw data? Under what pretext(s)?
International Convention on Civil Aviation, Annex 13

Article 5.25
"Participation in the investigation shall confer entitlement to participate in all aspects of the investigation, under the control of the investigator-in-change, in particular to:
a) visit the scene of the accident;
b) examine the wreckage;
c) obtain witness information and suggest areas of questioning;
d) have full access to all relevant evidence as soon as possible;
e) receive copies of all pertinent documents;
f) participate in read-outs of recorded media;
g) participate in off-scene investigative activities such as component examinations, technical briefings, tests and simulations;
h) participate in investigation progress meetings including deliberations related to analysis, findings, causes and safety
recommendations; and
i) make submissions in respect of the various elements of the investigation."
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Kaiarahi
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 6:35 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 17):
Otherwise the holds are very well protected ( ETOPS regulations )

Do we know if this aircraft was ETOPS compliant / certified?
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
hivue
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 6:36 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 38):
The initial phase of the flight gives all the indications of purpose. Therefore, we should decide that 9M-MRO is a rational agent or "intentional system" in Dennett's parlance.

For the initial phase. (There's probably a lot of witnesses to the fact that there was crew on the flight deck when the plane took off.)

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 38):
Note that I make NO hypotheses about who or what is in charge.

So a complicated mix of mechanical failure and (non-nefarious) pilot activity could have been in charge. Or chance could be "in charge."
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 6:43 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 35):

Quoting SSTeve (Reply 26):Fairly safe to assume the kts are groundspeed, then. The satellite doesn't care about airspeed.

They are indeed, it would tend to indicate the aircraft was below 20,000 ft. The arcs depicted cannot be valid as the ground speed in the satellite reference frame (the measured doppler shift is in that reference frame) is constantly changing due to upper level winds, As the aircraft came closer to Australia on the day, the ground speed would have reduced for a given TAS.

I'm pretty sure that the "arcs" are determined not by Doppler, but by the time it takes for the speed of light to deliver a message to the satellite. In any case, whether the ground speed varies or not has nothing to do with how the radii are determined.

As for assuming a constant ground speed, you gotta start somewhere. Sure, it would be nice to incorporate some wind data, but I haven't seen any.

I see that SkyVector will plot all kinds of upper level wind speeds and velocities, and that these are updated practically every minute. Does anyone know if past days are archived and can be accessed??

Think about it: that would be great, as for any model, you could on a minute-by-minute basis adjust the trajectory on the basis of head and tail winds.
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 6:46 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 38):
I believe they've got their IGARI plotted in the wrong spot

In the investigation team map they are plotting the plane's track, not waypoints.

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 38):
I can think of only one good reason: that for some reason they believe that a B777-200ER (ER stands for extended range) at cruising speeds cannot last for 7.5 hours on 49,100 kg of jet fuel. In fact, the graphs imply that the slower you go, the easier it is to make it, and that the probability of making it for 7.5 hours decreases (linearly?) as you increase speed.

It is the other way around. Initially they thought the final part of the flight had a ground speed of 400...450 knots and the search was far south (compared to the current search area). They later determined that the first part of the flight (1721 Z - 1827 Z) was flown faster than initially thought (based on the radar detections on the speed and altitude) and consumed more fuel. The plane wouldn't have had the endurance to reach that far south with the remaining fuel available. Thus it must have flown further northeast on the arc (to the current search area) and it follows that its ground speed must have been lower (because the distance flown is shorter). Now we know that the predicted average ground speed of the final part of the flight is only 323..350 knots.

Edit: And average ground speed does not mean constant ground speed (and in practice it cannot be due to the winds etc.)-

[Edited 2014-05-01 11:57:05]
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 6:57 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 42):
As for assuming a constant ground speed, you gotta start somewhere. Sure, it would be nice to incorporate some wind data, but I haven't seen any.

Pihero has provided it to you - twice.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 7:02 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 41):
Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 38):
The initial phase of the flight gives all the indications of purpose. Therefore, we should decide that 9M-MRO is a rational agent or "intentional system" in Dennett's parlance.

For the initial phase. (There's probably a lot of witnesses to the fact that there was crew on the flight deck when the plane took off.)

Rational agents are kind of stupid in the sense that they do not often change their mode of behavior. This is how Google makes billions of dollars off of us meatheads. Other things being equal we should not expect 9M-MRO to change her mode of behavior.

Quote:
Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 38):
Note that I make NO hypotheses about who or what is in charge.

So a complicated mix of mechanical failure and (non-nefarious) pilot activity could have been in charge. Or chance could be "in charge."

Uh huh. And how does that help us find the airliner? That's what we need to be focusing on.

And what about the off chance that there wasn't a complicated mix of mechanical failure on the safest plane design on Planet Earth?!? Have you considered that possibility. Because if you haven't, you are a stumbling block, and not a help, to finding a solution to this enigma. Get with the program man!

As for nefarious intent, I make no such hypotheses. For all I know, 9M-MRO was taken over by a good genie who knew about a portal to paradise in the middle of the Indian Ocean, and so did all the passengers a great favor. My only concern is either finding that portal to paradise, or the wreck. Either way, the way to proceed is to decide that 9M-MRO is a rational agent. Then if you understand her initial behavior, then you can predict her subsequent behavior.

ALL I care about is finding this airplane for the sake of the families of the victims so they can get some closure. I don't care about airplanes. I have no Boeing stock. I hate flying. Believe me, when this mystery is solved, I will pack up my tent and go home, and you guys won't have to read my posts anymore. If you guys want to get rid of me, then I recommend helping me find this thing, instead of throwing stones at every opportunity.

Cheers,
Warren  thumbsup   thumbsup 

[Edited 2014-05-01 12:04:02]
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 7:02 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 30):
That seems to me like a lot for a passenger airplane.
I'll have a looK on the limitations.

Maybe I'm looking in the wrong place (ICAO Dangerous Goods Regs, IATA), but I can only find limitations per package, not per shipment.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 7:09 pm

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 44):
Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 42):As for assuming a constant ground speed, you gotta start somewhere. Sure, it would be nice to incorporate some wind data, but I haven't seen any.


Pihero has provided it to you - twice.

I thought that was a surface wind chart. Anyways, what I am interested is the moving picture SkyVector wind plots because over the course of 7.5 hours, the winds at any particular spot are going to change. Do you or Pihero know how to those. Now that would be a huge help.
 
1010101
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 7:10 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 19):
That very first line is an impossibility at 30,000 ft as it amounts to an IAS of 200 kt / Mach .54
The same graph as above gives a minimum of IAS 208 kt / Mach .575 / TAS 342 kt

If we don't assume the a/p is active in the last parts of the line plot, perhaps the aircraft was not trimmed properly and was repeatedly climbing until a stall and then descending until it recovered. I would think that this would cause noticeable heading deviations but maybe these wouldn't be so large if a SAS was keeping the aircraft coordinated. At any rate, it might explain the "impossible" line plots as average speeds and the fact that the plane doesn't seem to be within the likely rectangles.
 
Pihero
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 59

Thu May 01, 2014 7:21 pm

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 40):

Do we know if this aircraft was ETOPS compliant / certified?

No ... but ir doesn't matter (I must be catching this thread virus of writing too soon, too fast )
The origins of the cargo holds fire protection come from the ETOPS regulation : an enclosed, well isolated space where control of airflow and temperature are possible and for extinction, an immediate dosing with extinguishing agent, followed by toimeed addition of agent during the whole max ETOPS time.
That reg has come into all long range aircraft : the 744 was so equipped 35 years ago.
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