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777Jet
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 3:17 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 299):
If you remember, I immediately said, "Wait, why's it out of spec?"

Sorry mate, I believe you, but I don't remember what was said in all of the 10,000 posts or so on this topic j/k  

You are right about the AF447 boxes though, so that the frequency doesn't match doesn't mean that it is not the boxes which is a good start...
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NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 3:18 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 298):
Nonetheless, I still remember hearing reports in the news that the frequency heard was an exact match (37.5 kHz) to that supposedly emitted by the boxes.

I also have similar recollections - but it appears likely that a lot of people connected with the investigation have recently been 'ass-covering' (if you'll forgive the inelegant phrase  ) for many days already.

If they have indeed concentrated 100% on the southerly route, without even considering the (equally-possible) northern one, I almost can't blame them...........
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 3:31 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 301):

I also have similar recollections - but it appears likely that a lot of people connected with the investigation have recently been 'ass-covering' (if you'll forgive the inelegant phrase ) for many days already.

If they have indeed concentrated 100% on the southerly route, without even considering the (equally-possible) northern one, I almost can't blame them...........

Yes, now seems to be the stale time where everything is in limbo. Do they continue what they have been doing with the possibility of coming up with nothing or do the go over and re-check the data / info they have which might indicate that they are searching in the wrong area? Whatever they do, if they keep coming up empty, answers will be demanded hence the time to start covering their backsides... I am kind of hoping it went North so that a lot of people and authorities look like fools. Also, if it was taken North, the hostage situation remains a possibility including people still being alive. Very, very, very unlikely though, but I am not ruling it out...   Best possible outcome IMO - we soon get a report on the news which goes a little something like this... After months of negotiations all 239 persons on-board MH370 have been rescued after the plane was taken and hidden in X... The several hijackers are now in custody... If only...
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comorin
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 3:38 am

I can understand a shift in frequency in an analog device ( change in R,C or L) but not in a digital (clocked) device. Explanations welcome, with promise of absolution for past posting sins.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 3:49 am

Quoting comorin (Reply 303):
I can understand a shift in frequency in an analog device ( change in R,C or L) but not in a digital (clocked) device. Explanations welcome, with promise of absolution for past posting sins.

Presumably because they're willing to accept 1kHz error to 37.5kHz spec straight out of manufacturing, maybe the mechanism by which the pings are produced is not quite as digital and perfect as we'd expect ... sensitive to voltage differences, to whatever else... To me 1kHz error seems quite extreme too! But that's the spec, 37.5 +- 1

I want to know the answer to this question too. It seems queer to me that they would behave that way, but I'm not an EE and I have never designed an ULB... If only that I had. It'd make one hell of a blog post.
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NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 4:17 am

Came across something that I simply can't understand. A press report (from the Graun, no less, back in March) purporting to say that MH370 did exactly what it was supposed to do (took off from KL and headed north-east) but then 'lost contact' over the South China Sea..............

Totally bemused now..........

http://www.theguardian.com/world/blo...nded-into-andaman-sea-live-updates
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 4:20 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 305):

China has probably released more false leads or retracted leads than anyone else - plus whinging the most but that is understandable given the number of its citizens that were on board...
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sipadan
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 4:41 am

Anyone see the interview Angus Houston (man in charge of search) gave CNN (I think) yesterday? One thing that really struck me (besides his downtrodden tone) was his decidedly non-neutral use of the words 'turn off' when referring to the transponder and ACARS. He repeatedly said 'well, we know that they were turned off'.

Other than being perhaps misleading (of course, I don't think so), it seems quite careless and sloppy, assuming it's just been overlooked. I mean, the latent implication is 'deliberate'. Does he not realize this, or is this something more intentional? any thoughts?
 
YoungMans
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 5:00 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 304):
Presumably because they're willing to accept 1kHz error to 37.5kHz spec straight out of manufacturing, maybe the mechanism by which the pings are produced is not quite as digital and perfect as we'd expect ... sensitive to voltage differences, to whatever else...

Thinking out loud here and only guessing ....

Wouldn't the black-box pinger be a half electronic and half mechanical device?
It would seem that it needs the working parts in a waterproof, pressure protected compartment.
Only the mechanism that creates the sound ("the pinger") would be subjected to ambient water pressure.
Maybe the relationship of the two, ambient versus inside pressure, may have something to do with it?
Unless "the ping" is an electronic phenomenon, not sound as I always believed ....
 
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seahawk
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 5:04 am

Most likely they had Boeing trying to built a failure case that could knock out only those 2 sytems + radio in the given time frame. Most likely Boeing could not come up with another explanation.
 
aftgaffe
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 5:09 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 307):
Anyone see the interview Angus Houston (man in charge of search) gave CNN (I think) yesterday?

I didn't see the part you're referring to - CNN seems to break it up on their Web site into bite size chunks cause... well anyhow.

But in one segment, linked below, Angus Houston said he does not have access to the Inmarsat raw data "because of the company's intellectual property laws" (see 1:40 of the below). He was also quoted as saying he has full confidence in what Inmarsat has released, or something to that effect... but to me it's a little disappointing Inmarsat won't let gov't agencies see the raw data. At the very least, I'd say the withholding detracts a bit from the imprimatur of peer review. Not saying they got the southern corridor wrong or anything like that but it hardly seems outlandish to think that if NASA and A-net (and Aussie NASA) could put the data through its paces that they might glean a new lead or two....

http://edition.cnn.com/video/data/2....coren-aus-houston-profile.cnn.html
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 5:10 am

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 308):
Unless "the ping" is an electronic phenomenon, not sound as I always believed ....

It is sound. It is a pressure wave. I have no idea what electro-mechanical device is used to generate it. Just shootin' the shit though, you can imagine a speaker - sure, the input to the speaker might be digitally perfect (or to be precise, the digital-analog converter, the DAC, could be very accurate), but if the speaker itself is deformed or broken it might not perform as you expect it to. After all, digital hardware is relying on a mechanical device to translate signals into physical movements in our analog world. Whatever generates that pressure wave is going to be subject to various limitations, which could take it out of spec.
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NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 5:12 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 307):
any thoughts?

Well, here's my contribution - just in time for the mods to start a new thread!  

I've been bothered from the first that the aircrew signed off from Kuala Lumpur but didn't 'sign on' with the next ATC. Anyone who has flown anything knows how important that is.

And I've 'linked that in' and bored everyone with my doubts as to the apparent turn west.

Putting the two points together, it seems to me very possible that 'whatever happened' may have happened right then.

It could have been almost anything any of us can imagine - a mechanical failure, a hijack, a suicide, or whatever. But it's very possible that MH370's flight ended right there. That idea looks increasingly likely, given the absence of any hard information of ANY kind from then on.

Please note that I'm ignoring the 'long white trail south' that the investigators are 'selling' - that appears to be speculative only, and not supported by radar or any other information source.

So if I was running the investigation, that's where I would search for wreckage first - right where MH370 'said goodnight' and then didn't check in with the next ATC lot...........
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 5:14 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 312):
So if I was running the investigation, that's where I would search for wreckage first - right where MH370 'said goodnight' and then didn't check in with the next ATC lot...........

No offense but you can't be serious. They spent a long time searching there. It's not very deep water. They found nothing. Does that mean you discount the Inmarsat data, that it flew for many hours afterwards? I'm not sure you thought this one through.

They had a functioning (in some capacity) 772 for over 7 hours. And you think they are where they said goodnight???

Maybe they *are* on the moon.

[Edited 2014-05-13 22:21:18]
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sipadan
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 5:25 am

Quoting aftgaffe (Reply 310):
But in one segment, linked below, Angus Houston said he does not have access to the Inmarsat raw data "because of the company's intellectual property laws" (see 1:40 of the below). He was also quoted as saying he has full confidence in what Inmarsat has released, or something to that effect... but to me it's a little disappointing Inmarsat won't let gov't agencies see the raw data. At the very least, I'd say the withholding detracts a bit from the imprimatur of peer review. Not saying they got the southern corridor wrong or anything like that but it hardly seems outlandish to think that if NASA and A-net (and Aussie NASA) could put the data through its paces that they might glean a new lead or two....

And speaking of...saw Inmarsat president (or CEO) yesterday on CNN (I think) and he was pressed about the raw data. He insisted that ALL of it was released to the Malay investigation and peered reviewed. However, when further pressed on Inmarsat alone releasing the raw, implied that they were legally restrained from doing so, as it was only the Malay investigation that 'legally' could release it.

It was a bit nebulous, but I absolutely was left with the impression that Inmarsat was precluded from releasing the raw because they were a party to the investigation, de facto?? Can this be right? Certainly this seemed to be how it was couched, not proprietary info etc...

Couldn't agree more that this needs to be mitigated, data released...and it does detract from the imprimatur of peer review...though I really can't fathom a northern track.
 
NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 5:26 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 313):
Does that mean you discount the Inmarsat data, that it flew for many hours afterwards?

Yes, I'm afraid so, nupogodi. They're only 'pings,' and (on recent evidence) they can be generated by practically anything?
 
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dennypayne
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 5:35 am

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 296):

Google cars roam around only in few counties, WiFi based positioning works on any router in the world. There are many other ways to update WiFi position database, Google Street view cars is one of the methods.

Dude, give it up, you are 100% wrong about how this works. Nupogodi and weizenjaeger are both correct. Only a few counties? You need to have another look at Google Street View - it's worldwide. There was even a lawsuit in the EU over the data collection.

The only thing that "works on every router" is that it broadcasts its' unique MAC address, which is visible to the Street View cars (or to whomever connects to the Wifi signal as they go by). Google can then put an entry in their own database that says "Router 53:A4:33:F1:56:CF is located at 123 Main St". The router does NOT know this. As soon as the owner of that router moves it, Google's database will be outdated until another Street View car (or whatever) drives by it again. The router CANNOT update its' own location with anyone.

Since there are no Street View cars or any other collection mechanism following airliners across the ocean, there is no way for your proposal to work.
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nupogodi
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 5:45 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 315):
Yes, I'm afraid so, nupogodi. They're only 'pings,' and (on recent evidence) they can be generated by practically anything?

Let me put it this way. It's possible for dragons to evolve on Earth. We know of beetles that spit acid, we know friction can generate static electricity and cause a spark and some animals can do this, we know bacteria can produce various combustible liquids - why not a flying lizard that shoots fuel and uses static electricity to ignite it? It's theoretically possible.
And yet we call dragons fantasy.

I don't know about the Inmarsat doppler analysis, since it's novel and hasn't been entirely proven, but the science is sound. I *do* know that if that terminal was responding for many hours, yeah, it'd be a flight of fancy to imagine it was anything but the terminal on MH370 producing those handshake responses.
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aftgaffe
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 5:51 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 314):
However, when further pressed on Inmarsat alone releasing the raw, implied that they were legally restrained from doing so, as it was only the Malay investigation that 'legally' could release it.

It was a bit nebulous, but I absolutely was left with the impression that Inmarsat was precluded from releasing the raw because they were a party to the investigation, de facto?? Can this be right? Certainly this seemed to be how it was couched, not proprietary info etc...

That sounds like a good Kaiarahi question but I agree it sounds deeply suspect to the extent it purports to be an explanation for why Australia has not seen the raw data. Which is to say, even if Inmarsat were legally constrained as to what it could release publicly, nothing to my knowledge prevents the "Malay Investigation" team from releasing the data to its Australian partners / members.

One explanation that might potentially make sense, assuming the raw data has at most only been released to the AAIB, is that UK national security laws (or potentially trade secrets laws, but I'd be more dubious of that) prevent further dissemination period. But I don't know what the national security concern would be and of course that does not square with what Inmarsat said above (for whatever that's worth).

[Edited 2014-05-13 22:54:02]
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 5:52 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 312):
Please note that I'm ignoring the 'long white trail south' that the investigators are 'selling' - that appears to be speculative only, and not supported by radar or any other information source.

You are mixing the satellite handshake 'pings' with the acoustic underwater locator beacon 'pings'. The former have not been disputed by any serious party.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 5:55 am

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 319):
You are mixing the satellite handshake 'pings' with the acoustic underwater locator beacon 'pings'.

OHHHHHHHHHHHHH.

Man, that guy is confused.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
Backseater
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 5:58 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 314):
It was a bit nebulous, but I absolutely was left with the impression that Inmarsat was precluded from releasing the raw because they were a party to the investigation, de facto?? Can this be right? Certainly this seemed to be how it was couched, not proprietary info etc...

Probably precluded because they signed a retainer/consulting contract with the Malaysian Investigating team. Inmarsat dispatched 2 engineers to KL in early March. Some are (were) in Australia working with the investigation. Plus more engineers working in the home office in London. They are unlikely to do that for free and that is quite understandable.

But their contract no doubt has both an exclusivity and a non-disclosure clause. No info to any party except to "us" since we pay you for all the work you are doing on our behalf.
 
sipadan
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 6:12 am

Quoting abba (Reply 225):
How likely "human intervention" will appear is only - ONLY - a matter of how good we are at telling tales. Nothing else.




This is absolute rubbish. As an anthropologist (I believe that's your 'area'), is not one of anthropologies primary focuses something akin to the 'reconstruction of past life ways' (as an anthro undergrad, this resonates)? Narratives are woven based on artifact and detritus, remnants of lives and cultures examined and studied meticulously in the effort to gain the best possible understanding of the subject.

On the contrary, tales are told when the fabric on which understanding and insight is based is absent.

We so happen to have a treasure trove from which to draw from, like more info about anyone on MH370 than, say, the entire Mayan civilization.


sorry for messed up post...don't know why it posted as such.
Quote aftgaffe,reply=318

[quote=aftgaffe,reply=318]That sounds like a good Kaiarahi question but I agree it sounds deeply suspect to the extent it purports to be an explanation for why Australia has not seen the raw data. Which is to say, even if Inmarsat were legally constrained as to what it could release publicly, nothing to my knowledge prevents the "Malay Investigation" team from releasing the data to its Australian partners / members.

yeah...that jolted my memory (your post). He (inmarsat pres) absolutely said that 'only the Malay investigation team can release the data'. He said this unequivocally, so it is so (taking him at his word, and I can't imagine he would misrepresent said issue). Kalahari would certainly have best understanding, so...Kalahari, hard feelings aside...any info? thanks.

[Edited 2014-05-13 23:14:33]

[Edited 2014-05-13 23:18:35]
 
lancelot07
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 6:19 am

too late ....

[Edited 2014-05-13 23:22:01]

[Edited 2014-05-13 23:23:02]
 
Unflug
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 6:25 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 297):
If I buy a brand new AP, straight out of the box, take it on a ship in the middle of the Indian Ocean and plug it in, and assuming I had internet access via satellite, still no one would know where the hell that thing is.

And if you take your old AP with you to the Indian Ocean and access the web through it you'll always be at home  
 
sipadan
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 6:27 am

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 321):
Probably precluded because they signed a retainer/consulting contract with the Malaysian Investigating team. Inmarsat dispatched 2 engineers to KL in early March. Some are (were) in Australia working with the investigation. Plus more engineers working in the home office in London. They are unlikely to do that for free and that is quite understandable.

yeah, definitely understandable...but, with thousands of people missing loved ones (they've just vanished from the face of the planet), and the known intelligent world unable to find them and a t7, does avarice (which I would call it at this point) not take a backseat (no pun intended) to common decency and expedience?
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 6:29 am

Quoting Unflug (Reply 324):
And if you take your old AP with you to the Indian Ocean and access the web through it you'll always be at home  

  

Indeed!
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
Backseater
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 6:42 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 325):
does avarice (which I would call it at this point) not take a backseat (no pun intended) to common decency and expedience?

Maybe, but in the end a lot of useful and critical data is trapped behind the"thick wall of transparency" erected by the Malaysian team for hard to justify reasons.

Could ICAO investigate the official investigative team? Just wishful thinking on my part!
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 6:49 am

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 327):
Could ICAO investigate the official investigative team? Just wishful thinking on my part!

And what, write them a strongly worded letter? "Ouuu we'll be really mad at you if you don't listen to us!"
Puh-leeze. ICAO members are there because they want to be. The UN starts getting uppity and people pull out, short shitstorm later everyone decides 'maybe we should play together'. Nothing more than a bunch of kids.

Hell, Canada pulled out of freakin' Kyoto. Spineless bureaucrats, the lot of them.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
YoungMans
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 7:04 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 317):
I don't know about the Inmarsat doppler analysis, since it's novel and hasn't been entirely proven, but the science is sound.

The science of analysing Inmarsat 'Pings' from the raw data may well and truly be sound; no question there.
On the other hand, that does not tell us whether there may be a small error in the analysis, a big error or, heavens forbid, whether the published data may in fact be deliberately false.

Only an analysis of the raw data will confirm this one way or another.
And it is the raw data which the "Authorities" won't release.

No doubt it is pure coincidence that, eventually, they calculated that a southern course is the most likely. Lo and behold, soon after a submarine turns up in that very area and, oh what luck, the Chinese and other surface vessels hear the sound from a pinger. Bad luck, though, that they didn't find any wreckage or anything floating on the surface; at least they've tried.

There is more to all this than meets the eye, I reckon .....
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 7:06 am

I mean god even as of 2010 the UK wasn't in compliance with ICAO standards regarding data retention for equipment used for air traffic services. They sent out REMINDERS that they should be in compliance! Reminders!
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 7:10 am

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 329):
Only an analysis of the raw data will confirm this one way or another.
And it is the raw data which the "Authorities" won't release.

Ugh, what kind of raw data do you want? The literal bit for bit downlink to the ground station? I'm not sure you'd know how to decipher that. It'd be a proprietary format. I've worked with similar things and wouldn't touch that with a 10 foot pole.

They said when they heard responses, what more do you want? It flew for hours and hours. It's not along its flight path, we know that for certain. If you discount the doppler analysis, that's fine, but they certainly didn't end up at the point of (or near the point of) the handoff.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
aftgaffe
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 7:15 am

Quoting aftgaffe (Reply 265):
Using this handy Internet calculator - http://www.ajdesigner.com/phpwinglif..._equation_coefficient.php#ajscroll - the Lift Coefficient = .188.

I just realized I messed up one of the conversions... the Lift Coefficient should be a more sense-making .37 (I think). That fits the eyeball test much better as well for the Lift Coefficient versus AOA graph seen on page 105 of this: http://www.cafefoundation.org/v2/pdf...evier.Prog.AS.HighLift.vDam.02.pdf

In all events, it would seem we are looking (under Pihero's theory) of a nearly flat attitude at the time of impact, thus approximating that of Ethiopian Airline 961 when it ditched after fuel exhaustion.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 7:25 am

Did you assume a -100fpm like Pihero but you also assumed no high lift devices as per your original post (you said no flaps)? That'd be mighty fast.... Tear that bird up quick.

Pihero's a professional and he thinks a controlled ditching under power is possible and I respect him for his opinion and agree that it's possible. I personally think it would be done with every kind of high lift device possible deployed and would have to be a ridiculously skilled aviator to pull it off in the middle of the ocean, and you would *need* power and lots of it, but it's POSSIBLE.

I just don't think it's likely. What's the point? And if the plane was decompressed in the flight levels or whatever caused there to be no action for such a long time, why a controlled ditching at the last minute? Who would be around to do it? Doesn't make sense.

*sigh* I guess this is what we're left with in the absence of official info. Hope you'll all be here throughout the years going forward...
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
Backseater
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 7:28 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 331):
what kind of raw data do you want?

Asking for the raw data is probably the wrong approach as it probably would require proprietary information to decipher it plus the possible release of classified means and methods(?).

What I would like to see is the result of Inmarsat's best effort analysis leading to:
- the estimated RTDs with error ranges
- the detailed physical model for extracting the a/c Doppler from the BFO data, showing what assumptions have been made
- the values of the satellite orbital parameters actually sent ot the a/c over the P channel
- the estimated a/c (residual) Doppler with error margins for three speeds and three widely separated regions for instance
 
mandala499
Posts: 6597
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 7:29 am

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 171):
It gives the final 10 positions recorded by FR24. Last position wasn't exactly at IGARI: it was 2.75 nm beyond that on a steady course of 040. Like it's aiming at BIBAN rather than BITOD.

BIBAN (042), or ANHOA (038), and such shortcuts isn't unusual... and yes, some might take the shortcut without ATC clearance if it doesn't deviate by "a lot"...   

Now... did it go 040 because they went for a shortcut? (habit)...
Or something failed? (Pihero's theory)
Or someone just slapped on the HDG SEL? (which is open to Pihero's theory, or a 'deliberate action', but discounts '

Quoting bond007 (Reply 261):
I'm sure I'm repeating myself from 2,000 posts ago, but Google Maps for example caches a ton of data locally. If I switch my phone to airplane mode and access Google Maps

If you've preloaded the tiles on route and is still within the cache... yes. If you haven't... no luck.

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 262):
Older BlackBerrys had an option to turn off AGPS, so it wouldn't look for cellular/WiFi "assistance" to get a lock, it will try only with satellite signal, location may not be perfect but will be in general area.

On the androids I used onboard, I switched off the AGPS. I used another GPS software to see what the phone's GPS was seeing. It was not able to pick up the different satellites in different directions, it just came as the satellites in 1 direction on the horizon.. the GPS then couldn't get a fix.

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 262):
ICAO should mandate (I guess they can only request) airlines to pass-on location information thru aircraft's WiFi Router (like all WiFi Routers do on earth). One can develop an app to capture your location and store in cloud using "passenger paid WiFi service". No cost to airlines.

This is a kneejerk reaction.
The "No cost to airlines" is a fiction.
Who's going to pay for the system? The WiFi Routers, the STCs if required? etc etc etc...
Part of what I do outside my job is toI sell solutions like these... no cost to airlines is a fiction. Some airlines are also too damn stingy...   

Quoting boacvc10 (Reply 274):
Sorry, the aircraft's WiFi access point is actually not directly on the internet as you know it, and is transported on a proprietary network to a vendor's network operations center, where the data is uncompressed, filtered, routed, switched to its destination networks. You won't be able to reach the Wi-Fi access point on the aircraft from outside of the network as there will be multiple private gateways and firewalls separating the airborne network with the public network.

OK, question: How are you going to connect it to the vendor network operations center? Secondly, who's going to pay for it?

Quoting bond007 (Reply 289):
If passengers had smartphones with Google Maps (very likely), and if they were able to get satellite reception ...they most likely would have been able to determine their position with some degree of accuracy had they any reason to try to.

OK, don't pre-load the data for the routes and destination onto the cache. Get onto the airplane, and try to get your GPS running on your phone...
I want to know what the various results are based on what they've tried... not based on "it should this and that".
I've tried it and wrote what I got.

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 290):
No cost to Airline, pax using the bandwidth they paid for.

Gogo ATG network is unique, but again, the infrastructure that Gogo invested in on the ground isn't exactly small.
For non continental landmass of a single country, the Gogo ATG solution is not practical. So you'd need satcom.
1. Who's going to buy the satcom?
2. Who's going to pay for the airtime?
3. Who's going to buy the other equipment (onboard routers, etc)
Once you go from ATG to SatCom, the cost structure changes... and the "no cost to the airline" is a fiction.

Quoting sipadan (Reply 314):
However, when further pressed on Inmarsat alone releasing the raw, implied that they were legally restrained from doing so, as it was only the Malay investigation that 'legally' could release it.

The raw data of the satellite data packets (non-billable packets) won't be released under national security clauses and various non-confidentiality clauses between Inmarsat and various "chief client" government customers.

Quoting aftgaffe (Reply 318):
One explanation that might potentially make sense, assuming the raw data has at most only been released to the AAIB, is that UK national security laws (or potentially trade secrets laws, but I'd be more dubious of that) prevent further dissemination period. But I don't know what the national security concern would be and of course that does not square with what Inmarsat said above (for whatever that's worth).

The national security interest concerns (not national security concern) is there, and it prevents the whole raw data to be released. So Inmarsat has to be careful on how to release the info and the wording of the release.
And then, they decided to offer these "location through the non-billable data packet" that is previously confidential, as free tracking to the industry with no change to the existing set ups... If that's the case, Inmarsat, please, release the coordinates...   

I better stop now before I get "visitors"...
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
aftgaffe
Posts: 176
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 7:45 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 333):
I just don't think it's likely. What's the point? And if the plane was decompressed in the flight levels or whatever caused there to be no action for such a long time, why a controlled ditching at the last minute? Who would be around to do it? Doesn't make sense.

I don't want to put words into his mouth but I think Pihero's theory is not that it was a controlled ditching but that the plane simply impacted the ocean while traveling at +/- 245 kts and descending at 100 ft / min.

So:

1) Given the relatively high speed and low sink rate, most of the plane's energy would have been moving forward, not down; and

2) What I was getting at with the Lift Coefficient is that at the moment of impact the plane's attitude would have been very slightly nose up (at least, that's my amateur conclusion).

Building on those points, I suspect the physics component of Pihero's theory will show that it's possible the plane did not disintegrate or even shatter at the moment of impact but instead may have remained sufficiently intact so as to () trigger initiation of a handshake, and (2) result in relatively little long-lasting surface debris.

But I guess we'll see soon enough.

[Edited 2014-05-14 00:47:22]
 
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seahawk
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 8:03 am

I think Pihero´s analysis for the final leg of the flight seems very convincing, the how it got there and why is the big question.
 
Backseater
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 8:15 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 335):
And then, they decided to offer these "location through the non-billable data packet" that is previously confidential, as free tracking to the industry with no change to the existing set ups... If that's the case, Inmarsat, please, release the coordinates...

If they had the coordinates, I don't see how they could have left a large SAR fleet scour the southern Indian ocean in areas that they were absolutely sure not to contain the a/c.
Asking ACARS to provide it is clearly unreliable as messages are queued but not transmitted if the ACARS FMS screen has been used to disallow VHF or satcom transmit.

What they may have are some undocumented messages in the AERO protocol. For instance, I assume the pings come from "logon/logoff acknowledge" packets. Those packets do not have much data to transmit (a/c ID?, GES id?, ...). It is quite possible then that such short messages are implemented as slightly larger containers used to transport different types of short messages. Depending upon the amount of data they transport, the containers would have a certain number of spare bits that contain usually nothing.

But those spare bits could be used to transport a compressed longitude+latitude pair.
Reducing the acknowledge timeout from 60+ min to say 15min as Inmarsat mentioned would yield pretty useful tracking outside of ADS-B coverage. The 15min timeout depends upon Inmarsat statistics showing the load factor of the P and R channels.

Of course,the airborne satcom software would have to be slightly upgraded. . . unless by chance those undocumented message types are already built into today's operational satcom software.
 
abba
Posts: 1385
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 8:24 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 322):
Narratives are woven based on artifact and detritus, remnants of lives and cultures examined and studied meticulously in the effort to gain the best possible understanding of the subject.

On the contrary, tales are told when the fabric on which understanding and insight is based is absent.

Now this is not a forum for the discussion of anthropological epistemology so let me just say that I don't like to work with too well defined concepts in interpreting culture and religion. They too easily become Trojan Horses by which we smuggle our own prejudices into the material at hand. Rather concepts should be carefully defined as we go along in a creative dialogue with our material so as to mirror the best we can the actual distinctions in the material and not in our own minds..

However, the epidemiological problem with the theory "the pilot did it on purpose" is that it can hardly be disproved at least (perhaps!) until we have the actual plane. This theory can be made likely no matter what facts we find if we are only creative enough. There simply is an explanation based on this theory to almost any possible findings: no known suicide note, nothing found on his flight sim, unlikely routing, lack of serious family problems etc. etc. If nothing else: he did it like that in order to make it look unreasonable that he did it - all based on his individual sense of reason! You are dealing with a theory that can (almost) not be disproved.
 
sipadan
Posts: 322
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 9:32 am

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 188):
Quote:
It was later established that the transmissions from the Aircraft Communication and Reporting System (ACARS) through satellite communication system occurred at regular intervals starting before MH 370 departed Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia at time 12:56:08 MYT and with the last communication occurred at 01:07:49 MYT.

So, as I understand this, the 12:56:08 transmission was thought to be the 'climb' transmission, and the 1:07:49 transmission the 'cruise' transmission, both ACARS. Subsequent to these two transmissions was the 'take-off' transmission (before departure).

Then, an expected 1:37 transmission never materialized. I read a previous post where it was said that ACARS was turned off on flights to China, but everything I've read said it WAS expected. Either way, we have this:

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 188):
Quote:
It explained that if the ground station does not hear from an aircraft for an hour it will transmit a log on/log off message a ping and the aircraft automatically returns a short message indicating that it is still logged on, a process described as a handshake.

So, given the above, and the Inmarsat handshake protocol (every hour, if not heard from) wouldn't one have expected an ACARS transmission to have occurred at 2:07 thereabouts, not the 2:22 when we had our first handshake? The 'handshakes' are ONLY if not 'heard from', and as I understand this, the 1:07:49 transmission would constitute an 'okay, i hear you' transmission even though it was of a different nature. Yet the next transmission was the ground station 'log on/log off' message at 2:22:00, an 1 hour 14min separation. Sure this has been covered and is obvious, but am wondering? Why not a 2:07-2:08 handshake?

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 194):
9M-MRO/MH370 was apparently completely normal in all respects right up until the loss of the transponder data stream.

I don't think you can make this inference, necessarily. We have widely confirmed and sourced reports that it was the Captain, not the FO, who made the last transmission (despite FO making previous transmissions (apparently). And, we have a redundant FL350 transmission from MH370 to ATC at 1:07:55.

And YES, i am well aware that these are the most minor and seemingly insignificant of aberrations, but they ARE slight anomalies nonetheless. And when you take into account that the freaking plane is still missing, nothing can be viewed as normal.

[Edited 2014-05-14 02:34:28]
 
Unflug
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 9:43 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 335):
I want to know what the various results are based on what they've tried... not based on "it should this and that". I've tried it and wrote what I got.

I have tried my Windows Phone, it works offline with downloaded maps. Even without downloaded maps the whole world is covered with less detail - showing major streets and many cities on all continents: more than enough for the purpose in question.
 
Pihero
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 10:19 am

Quoting aftgaffe (Reply 336):
I don't want to put words into his mouth but I think Pihero's theory is not that it was a controlled ditching but that the plane simply impacted the ocean while traveling at +/- 245 kts and descending at 100 ft / min.

... and it's really a matter of physics and dynamics.
Here is one interpretation :

1/-Initial conditions :
- Normal westward swell , 2 m high
- Wind : Easterly at 20 kt
- Aircraft descending at 100 ft/min TAS = 245 kt ---> ground speed 225 kt.
- Aircraft attitude 1° or 2° nose up.

2/- Initial Impact :
- The engines will hit first as they are 2 meters below the fuselage (see 777 ACAPS page 23
The first second, with 50 cm in the wwater, we'd see deceleration and flaming out
- seconds later, (IMO 2 sec) the engines will be ripped off, bleedin further energy, causing a pitch up as the CoG will translate aft, in the opposed direction of the pitch-down moment on the forces against the engines.

3/- following impact(s) :
- a series of ricochets , further slowing down the forward movement , each air segment seeing a pitch up, causing at each time the aft end of the aircraft to hit the water... until there is no more lift to counteract the pitch-up moment... stall would follow at a very low height and...
- the aircraft would hit at the final impact nose first of with a violent side movement if one wing hits a wave...
As Kaiarahi says, the T7 is built like a *sh*t brick* -( witness the 'Frisco accident where it was more or less intact, even after a near cartwheel... and the wings staid attached ) and the whole airplane has a very smooth surface.

4/- Conclusion : There is a good possibility for the break-up to be minimal, IMO restricted to the wing-to-body fairing and the tail part, none of which would float and with the fuselage and cargo holds still integral, no spillage of contents.

5/- Considerations on floatability :
the aircraft was depressurised because even if the air bleed was working, the overpressure outflow valves would have opened, and then there are plenty of holes for the water to sip in : outflow valves,; ram air intakes, air conditioning packs... etc...
It wouldn't have floated for more than a few hours... but it would have been subject to wind and currents.

In this scenario, no wonder why the surface search couldn't find anything.

Your comments would be appreciated.

[Edited 2014-05-14 03:21:07]
Contrail designer
 
YoungMans
Posts: 432
Joined: Sat Mar 15, 2014 10:31 am

RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 10:20 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 331):
Ugh, what kind of raw data do you want? The literal bit for bit downlink to the ground station? I'm not sure you'd know how to decipher that. It'd be a proprietary format. I've worked with similar things and wouldn't touch that with a 10 foot pole.
You are right, I wouldn't know how to decipher what are probably rows and rows of just numbers and abbreviations; I'm a Dieso, not a Computer Specialist, it is out of my depth. Then again, others are asking for the same thing and, I reckon, a fair few people would be able to make sense of that data.

But let me ask you this:
Quoting nupogodi (Reply 331):
It flew for hours and hours.
How can you be so certain, on what grounds?
At least for the part that 9M-RMO is said to have travelled over the Indian Ocean.
Only the satellite data tells us that.
So if there is the slightest mistake with that, let alone a big one, the site where the aircraft might be could be miles and and miles away from the area where the search is concentrated now.
 
YoungMans
Posts: 432
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 10:33 am

Quoting aftgaffe (Reply 336):
Given the relatively high speed and low sink rate, most of the plane's energy would have been moving forward, not down

Wouldn't the 'Air-Cushion-Effect' come into this as well?
Didn't the Russians years ago develop Ground-Effect aircraft?
And quite big ones too ....
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1587
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 10:50 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 340):
I don't think you can make this inference, necessarily. We have widely confirmed and sourced reports that it was the Captain, not the FO, who made the last transmission (despite FO making previous transmissions (apparently). And, we have a redundant FL350 transmission from MH370 to ATC at 1:07:55.

And YES, i am well aware that these are the most minor and seemingly insignificant of aberrations, but they ARE slight anomalies nonetheless. And when you take into account that the freaking plane is still missing, nothing can be viewed as normal.

That would mean that the plan to steal 9M-MRO is already under way by that time in the flight. It is only 26 minutes into the flight that we have the second FL350 report. The previous FL350 report was at 20 minutes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysi...ight_370#Timeline_of_disappearance

You are basically claiming that between 1:01 and 1:07 MYT, the plan was put into motion to steal 9M-MRO.
9M-MRO is still over land at those times.
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1587
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 10:54 am

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 343):
Only the satellite data tells us that.
So if there is the slightest mistake with that, let alone a big one, the site where the aircraft might be could be miles and and miles away from the area where the search is concentrated now.

I know of no one making any good case that Inmarsat is wrong or off, though.

They certainly could be, but we know that other organizations have peer reviewed the conclusions, and agreed with them.

If someone made a good case that Inmarsat was inaccurate with it's conclusions, I have not heard of it.

I have read a few blogger claims, and that's about it. No one, to my knowledge, has made a dent in the Inmarsat analysis.
 
bond007
Posts: 4428
Joined: Mon Mar 14, 2005 2:07 am

RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 11:01 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 335):
OK, don't pre-load the data for the routes and destination onto the cache. Get onto the airplane, and try to get your GPS running on your phone...
I want to know what the various results are based on what they've tried... not based on "it should this and that".
I've tried it and wrote what I got.

Well, if anybody on that aircraft had ever used Google Maps before on their phone, then they would have a lot of data cached. That's how it works. At minimum you have an overall map of the world where you can easily determine your location within 50 miles or better (as long as you get a GPS signal of course). I can zoom into Asian countries in airplane mode and I've never used Google Maps in Asia. If you have used it in Asia (many of them would have), they would be able to get even better resolution.

Bottom line ... if you've ever used Google Maps ever, anywhere, you have cached maps.


Jimbo
I'd rather be on the ground wishing I was in the air, than in the air wishing I was on the ground!
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1587
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 11:01 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 335):
BIBAN (042), or ANHOA (038), and such shortcuts isn't unusual... and yes, some might take the shortcut without ATC clearance if it doesn't deviate by "a lot"...

Now... did it go 040 because they went for a shortcut? (habit)...
Or something failed? (Pihero's theory)
Or someone just slapped on the HDG SEL? (which is open to Pihero's theory, or a 'deliberate action', but discounts '

A similar turn is always taken on that route. I would say the turn to 040 is normal. I have looked at several MH370 flights and several MH360 flights recently. They all take a similar right turn near IGARI.

http://www.flightradar24.com/data/fl...s/flights.php?flight=mh360#3524e10
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1587
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 61

Wed May 14, 2014 11:14 am

Garmin working like a champ at 40,000 feet:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kt1WJbdpmss

HTC Thunderbolt doing just as well at 45,000 feet, including some weak cell tower reception:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMiRbHgD4bM

Some phones apparently have the same real gps chip that is in a Garmin.

So I think it's pretty clear that if the maps are cached or pre-loaded, the nav can work fine.

The speed and altitude are no problem. Satellite reception is no problem. Even cell reception might not be a problem in many areas...

[Edited 2014-05-14 04:17:12]

[Edited 2014-05-14 04:17:35]
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