wilco737
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MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Mon May 19, 2014 8:21 am

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Due to length part 62 was locked for further contributions. Please feel free to continue your discussion in part 63.

MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 62 (by wilco737 May 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

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bluesky9
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Mon May 19, 2014 9:30 am

Getting back to MH370.

Why not look at the problem like an onion. What if we peel back the layers one by one.

First what if all the ping information is simple misdirection, along the lines of the WMDs in place of "just cause" in Iraq.

Some of the rhetoric is familiar.
Prove that there are no WMDs in Iraq -> proving a negative of this kind is impossible. (Search forever, you can never prove there are no WMDs, i.e. they might have moved from A to B during the search.)

Prove that WP's theory is wrong or prove that Pihero's theory is wrong. (Not being able to prove either is False does not make the other True.) We simply need more data, like physical evidence of the A/C.

Decorating theories with arithmetic only gives these theories the appearance of science.

All of the time we are assuming the ping data is correct.

I could be wrong, but my "reading" of the demeanor of the searchers is that they are not expecting to find anything where they are looking.

I find it strange that none of the world's media have bothered to interview people like the NZ guy on the oil rig, or fishermen and locals where the A/C supposedly flew over "while evading radar". (seriously?)
 
LovesCoffee
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Mon May 19, 2014 10:39 am

Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 1):
Decorating theories with arithmetic only gives these theories the appearance of science.

That depends on the poster. Some people use the math to calculate things such as fuel burn and other important figures to test the possibility their theory. To see if what they posit is actually possible. One poster does indeed use arithmetic to give the appearance of science. And pretty pictures, too. It all depends on the sincerity of the individual and how much work they decide to invest in testing the idea that their theory could fit the limited data available.
Life is too short for cheap coffee.
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Mon May 19, 2014 11:00 am

Here is the latest JACC update:

Quote:
ADV Ocean Shield arrived at Geraldton, Western Australia, yesterday to begin preparations to receive spare parts related to the transponder mounted on the Ocean Shield and the transponder mounted on the Autonomous Underwater Vehicle, Bluefin-21.

The repairs are necessary to correct a hardware issue affecting the ability of the transponders to communicate with each other during a dive. The problem became apparent during Bluefin-21's last mission on Tuesday.

Ocean Shield was originally going to Dampier to await the transponder parts, however, it was determined that the parts could be delivered to the ship more quickly via the port of Geraldton.

The spare parts are expected to arrive in Geraldton later today.

Once the replacement parts are installed, testing will be conducted at Geraldton prior to Ocean Shield transiting back to the search area.

Malaysian, Australian and Chinese authorities met over the weekend in Fremantle to discuss the bathymetric survey.

It was agreed that the Chinese survey ship Zhu Kezhen will conduct the bathymetric survey of the areas provided by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau.

Zhu Kezhen is scheduled to sail for the survey area on Wednesday, weather permitting.

Source: http://www.jacc.gov.au/media/releases/2014/may/mr046.aspx
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Mon May 19, 2014 3:15 pm

Quoting LovesCoffee (Reply 2):
Quoting 777Jet,reply=281,thread=MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 62:
I have more important things to do and I don't really care where the plane is


No rudeness intended, this is a real question. Why are you wasting your time reading and posting on this thread?

How typical of somebody in this forum to quote just part of another posters text to give a certain impression, and to take a new thread off-topic so early...   I sense an early appearance of the straw man / troll but I will nonetheless answer the question...

The 'I have more important things to do' was a reply to when I was asked (in a straw man type post anyway) to prove that another poster's theory was wrong - a theory that I never said was wrong. So, why would I waste my time trying to prove that a theory is wrong when I never said that it was wrong??? Hmmmmm, some people have strange expectations. And, regarding not caring where the plane is - it is where it is - I find the better discussions the ones concerning what happened. Yes, the plane needs to be found first, but I think everybody really wants to learn what happened, how and why (if possible) so that possible improvements can be made to possibly prevent a similar incident from occurring. So, it doesn't bother me where the plane is and it wouldn't surprise me if it is never found or if it is found somewhere unexpected but I just hope it is found - I don't care where - so we can get to the bottom of this mystery. If it is in the area they are currently searching, we could get news any moment that the plane is found given that Bluefin-21 is doing rounds... or, we could be in for a long, long wait...
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fooflyboy
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Mon May 19, 2014 3:20 pm

Chinese ship to map seabed in search for MH370
http://news.msn.com/world/chinese-sh...-to-map-seabed-in-search-for-mh370

Quote:
A Chinese navy survey ship will start mapping the seabed off the west Australian coast this week as part of the latest phase in the search for the Malaysian airliner, officials said Monday.

Chinese, Australian and Malaysian authorities met at the west coast port city of Fremantle at the weekend and agreed that the Chinese ship Zhu Kezhen will conduct a bathymetric survey of the Indian Ocean floor as directed by Australian air crash investigators, Australia's Joint Agency Coordination Center said in a statement.

The Canberra-based center said the ship was scheduled to sail for the survey area on Wednesday, weather permitting.

Officials believe the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 that vanished with 239 passengers and crew on March 8 during a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing veered far off course and crashed in the southern Indian Ocean.

After an initial air and seabed search failed to find any trace of the wreckage, authorities this month announced a new phase over a vastly expanded seabed search area covering 60,000 square kilometers (23,000 square miles). The new phase also involves mapping of the seabed where depths and topography are in parts largely unknown.

Negotiations are underway to contract powerful sonar equipment to scour the seabed for wreckage that could be in water more than 7 kilometers (23,000 feet) deep.

The original ocean floor search of an area of less than 400 square kilometers (155 square miles) where a sound consistent with aircraft black box was thought to have emanated was conducted by a U.S. Navy unmanned sub, the Bluefin 21, near its 4.5 kilometer (2.8 mile) depth limit.

The Bluefin 21 had continued searching an ever widening area until a communications problem was discovered last week involving the transponders on the sub and the Australian navy ship that tows it, Ocean Shield.

The center said the Ocean Shield arrived on Sunday at the Australian west coast port of Geraldton, where preparations were underway to install spare transponder parts to both the ship and sub.
 
eielef
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Mon May 19, 2014 3:29 pm

I read this interesting article on La Nación Newspaper from Buenos Aires. Although in written in spanish, it says that in the UK it will be published a book with a theory consisting that the MH flight was shoot down by the US, by mistake.
This is the link to the newspaper article, but is only in Spanish.
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1692645-u...a-airlines-fue-derribado-por-error

Cheers,
Eielef @TUC
 
LGWGate49
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Mon May 19, 2014 3:56 pm

Quoting eielef (Reply 7):
in the UK it will be published a book with a theory consisting that the MH flight was shoot down by the US, by mistake.

Yes I read that too in the Independent newspaper today:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...leased-about-lost-jet-9391964.html

Apparently the author is

Quote:
most famous for his Sex Lives series of “salacious tales” about the rich and famous.

Just look at the cover of the book. Utterly shameful.
Look for the ridiculous in everything, and you will find it
 
lancelot07
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Mon May 19, 2014 4:01 pm

Quoting eielef (Reply 7):

I read this interesting article on La Nación Newspaper from Buenos Aires. Although in written in spanish, it says that in the UK it will be published a book with a theory consisting that the MH flight was shoot down by the US, by mistake.
This is the link to the newspaper article, but is only in Spanish.
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1692645-u...a-airlines-fue-derribado-por-error

we already had a link to an article by the Daily Mail with the same content.
Some people are not ashamed of anything when a few pennies can be made  
Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 1):
Decorating theories with arithmetic only gives these theories the appearance of science

It is not about decorations, and it is not about appearances. So far all criminal intent-theories have failed reasonability tests very miserably.
 
Antidote
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Mon May 19, 2014 6:04 pm

There will almost certainly be a direct correlationship between search length and increasingly outlandish theories! I'm sure the tabloids are already working on their alien abduction stories!
 
Backseater
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Mon May 19, 2014 6:59 pm

In post 215, part 62, I asked the following question that went unanswered:
Does anybody know how ATC screens (secondary radars) display aircraft whose transponder has just been turned off / placed on standby?

The reason I asked that question was to try to interpret the timeline around IGARI.

01:19:24 MYT LUMPUR RADAR at KLATCC instructed MH370 to contact HO CHI MINH Air Traffic Control Centre (HCMATCC) on radio frequency 120.9 MHz. MH 370 acknowledged with %u201Cgood night Malaysian Three Seven Zero%u201D.

01:21:04 MYT, MH370 was observed on the radar screen at KLATCC as it passed over waypoint IGARI.

01:21:13 MYT the radar label for MH 370 disappeared from the radar screen at LUMPUR RADAR KLATCC.

For the KLATCC, can we conclude that the transponder was turned off at 01:21:13 minus a few seconds? or earlier?

01:38:19 Ho Chi Minh first enquired about MH370, informed KL-ATCC that verbal contact was not established with MH370 and radar target was last seen at BITOD.

MH370 flight plan called for making a slight right turn after IGARI and proceeding via route M765 to BITOD intersection, 37nm farther.

According to FlighGlobal, Ho Chi Minh stated that radar contact was established over IGARI, but there had been no verbal contact, and that the radar track disappeared in the vicinity of the BITOD waypoint. In an article that I have read but cannot find again, Ho Chi Minh ATC stated that the MH370 label also disappeared at 01:21:xx if my memory serves me right. But their statement has been interpreted by many as saying that an unencoded blip kept being displayed on their radar screen until approximately BITOD.

I assume that the Vietnamese use BITOD because it is in their airspace whereas IGARI is not. But did that blip really exist? Was that a primary radar blip that can be seen on some ATC displays? Was it a predicted track until BITOD, the next waypoint in MH370 flight plan?
 
Pihero
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Mon May 19, 2014 7:05 pm

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 5):
So, why would I waste my time trying to prove that a theory is wrong when I never said that it was wrong???

Maybe interesting in the search for a possible scenario, or the truth ???
Of course, the same criteria shoulde be applied to all theories.

Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 1):

Decorating theories with arithmetic only gives these theories the appearance of science.

I love it when someone under the pretense of fairness and objectivity is in fact trying hard to plant a dagger in my back.
But it doesn't matter.
If you do not want arithmetics and maths, what are you doing on this forum ?
I suggest we could have some interesting conversation on Game of Thrones in the Non-Av forum. Not on aviation or navigation, which are my subjects... Those I am really interested in.
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QualityDr
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Mon May 19, 2014 7:20 pm

Quoting antidote (Reply 10):
There will almost certainly be a direct correlationship between search length and increasingly outlandish theories! I'm sure the tabloids are already working on their alien abduction stories!

Posted 2 months ago:

http://nationalreport.net/aliens-abd...ct-malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370/

QD
All you need in this life is ignorance and confidence; then success is sure. -- Mark Twain
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Mon May 19, 2014 7:31 pm

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 11):
MH370 flight plan called for making a slight right turn after IGARI and proceeding via route M765 to BITOD intersection, 37nm farther.

The last FR24 course had it cutting the corner and headed for ANHOA, rather than BITOD. And it couldn't have got very far before making the turn back toward Penang because of the time budget.
 
Backseater
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Mon May 19, 2014 7:44 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 14):
And it couldn't have got very far before making the turn back toward Penang because of the time budget.

I understand the constraint implied by the time budget. But I think we should again look at every event/observation on their own merit, independently of other conflicting event/observation. I feel that we are dealing with a puzzle the pieces of which do not fit together: some pieces are missing, some foreign pieces may have been added and still others have been mutilated.
 
LovesCoffee
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Mon May 19, 2014 9:43 pm

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 5):
How typical of somebody in this forum to quote just part of another posters text

Yes, I agree it can be dangerous to take an item out of context. However, the reason I do that is that it lets a reader know what triggered my thought/response. Then, if the reader wants context, they can select the link to the original comment and read it in it's entirety.
Life is too short for cheap coffee.
 
weizenjaeger
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 12:26 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 26):
BTW, on the Four Corners show, it was mentioned when they were discussing ACARS that somebody tried to interfere with the IFE - I'll let the tech people figure that out. Maybe there is now a link to the episode if you google ABC Four Corners and look for last night's episode for those interested. Keep up the good work!

Here's a link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OfRhSjXNm8
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 12:35 am

Quoting weizenjaeger (Reply 27):
Quoting 777Jet (Reply 26):
BTW, on the Four Corners show, it was mentioned when they were discussing ACARS that somebody tried to interfere with the IFE - I'll let the tech people figure that out. Maybe there is now a link to the episode if you google ABC Four Corners and look for last night's episode for those interested. Keep up the good work!

Here's a link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OfRhSjXNm8

Thank you. I'm glad everybody get's the chance to watch it. Whilst it was not the usual high quality that Four Corners usually is - it did raise questions about some of the things we believe about MH370...
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YoungMans
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 1:44 am

The (Australian) ABC 4-Corners program can be found here:

http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2014/05/19/4005244.htm

... and it is an eye opener. It visualises a lot of the stuff that's being talked about in these threads.
The documentary spells out loud and clear some of the thoughts we probably all have and, in the process, throws up even more questions than it attempted to answer.
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 2:06 am

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 29):
... and it is an eye opener. It visualises a lot of the stuff that's being talked about in these threads.
The documentary spells out loud and clear some of the thoughts we probably all have and, in the process, throws up even more questions than it attempted to answer.

Some things from the show (don't shoot the messenger):

* The brother-in-law of the Captain said the Captain's wife was not leaving him and that the Captain did not attend the Anwar trial the evening of the flight.

* The Captain's friend said the Captain was proud of the fight sim and there was nothing to hide about it as he often posted about it on Facebook. Also, regarding the deleted data, the flight sim broke down in 2013 and was undergoing repairs - apparently the Captain has not been able to use it since 2013. Also, he said that the Captain would not have made a decision to take the plane based on the Anwar verdict in such a short time after the trial.

* Former 777 pilots state that communications might have been lost because of a fire but if so the plane would not then have been able to fly for another seven hours.

* Malaysian defense minister makes a comment, when asked about sending a military jet to see what the radar blip was, about seeing no need to send a military jet unless it intended to shoot the plane down. The reporter then asked something like (Why shoot it down if it's not hostile?") to which he replied "The Americans would" - It is at around the 35:20 mark - I just though it was an interesting comment - don't know what to make of it...

Here is a link to an article on the video:

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/...re-unlikely-in-plane-disappearance
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imagoagnitio
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 4:22 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 30):

I was thinking exactly the same watching last night, the facial expression was as if he was hinting at something.

All in all though, a well put together show.
 
YVRLTN
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 4:44 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 30):
The reporter then asked something like (Why shoot it down if it's not hostile?") to which he replied "The Americans would" - It is at around the 35:20 mark - I just though it was an interesting comment - don't know what to make of it...

I make of it have a poke at the Americans to get out of nasty hole. If the Inmarsat data is correct, then why shoot it down in the supposed area of the crash and why? Not sure Inmarsat would open themselves up to the massive liability of providing false information, even for the mother of all cover ups.

What is clear is sending a plane up would have verified what the traffic was. If it was a MH 777, particularly knowing one was missing, a quick check with MH ops would verify what ship it was and if it was supposed to be there. If it was a drugrunner Gulfstream or Russian Bear bomber or whatever, at least they would know. That is a clear failure by the Malaysian military and I did not like his response.

The part about MH assuming it was over Cambodian airspace without actually even checking is also pretty damning against MH.
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NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 4:46 am

Simply can't understand how this 'ping system' works. But if this diagram is correct, it appears on the face of it to have been an 'even bet' as to whether the aeroplane flew north or south?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_search_for_MH370.png

Can someone who knows more about the system please explain why the investigators appear to have concentrated 100% on it heading south?

[Edited 2014-05-19 21:47:58]
 
boacvc10
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 5:02 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 33):
an 'even bet'

No, the betting odd is not 'even' in this case. the satellite packet exchange between MH370 transponder and the concerned satellite can be compared against the known orbital motion (East, West, North, South) of the satellite itself, with respect to center of Earth, and matched against predicted doppler shift given that the aircraft would have been in movement with respect to the satellite's instantaneous position. Normally there is a compensator onboard both platforms (satellite, aircraft) that takes care of the frequency shift, which influences timing. However the small movement of the spacecraft itself due to its velocity at GEO, in its orbital track is not constant by any means, it does have some variation and that creates the opportunity to measure deflection from theoretical. What is disputed, unclear is the scale of the deflection from theoretical, which would be needed to confidentally determine range and direction, due to the satellite raw data (actual timing of the bits of the data stream) not being made available to anybody. Also has this method been applied to any similiar flight, producing similar results? Should have been done by now, and should be able to be corroborated -- in fact Intelsat is now advertising such a service, for free to the aviation industry... so, where are the raw numbers, and what can we learn from them?
Up, up and Away!
 
sipadan
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 5:14 am

[/quote]

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 33):
Can someone who knows more about the system please explain why the investigators appear to have concentrated 100% on it heading south?

Can't help you there, but I just received word from someone that the raw data (the 14 data points) is on the verge of being released, though my 'source' says this may only be for the families (which I don't understand at all, if true).

Okay, this news is being reported also by NewStraight Times and CNN. It sounds as if the release is imminent. I don't know if this will be confined to these 14 data points (that may be all there is) or will be more substantial (i.e. interpretation)? Wow, 72 days later .
 
NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 5:18 am

Quoting boacvc10 (Reply 34):
What is disputed, unclear is the scale of the deflection from theoretical, which would be needed to confidentally determine range and direction, due to the satellite raw data (actual timing of the bits of the data stream) not being made available to anybody.

Thanks, boacvc10. I suppose the very next question has to be, why 'confidentially'? As far as we know, there are no 'national security' or 'defence' issues involved? Why not publish the 'ping points' for the possible northern track as well?

[Edited 2014-05-19 22:23:03]
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 5:53 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 33):
Simply can't understand how this 'ping system' works. But if this diagram is correct, it appears on the face of it to have been an 'even bet' as to whether the aeroplane flew north or south?

That is an old plot based solely on the satellite elevation angle analysis. This analysis can't discern between the northern and southern track. When you add the Burst Frequency Offset (Doppler shift) to the analysis, the northern track is ruled out according to Inmarsat.
 
boacvc10
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 6:54 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 36):
, why 'confidentially'? A

sorry, that was a typo! "confidently" not "confidentially".
Up, up and Away!
 
Backseater
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 7:02 am

Quoting weizenjaeger (Reply 27):
Here's a link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OfRhSjXNm8

Thank you for that link to ABC Four Corners video.

IMO, the most interesting snippet from that video is when Mr. Hussein was queried about initially dismissing the Inmarsat data, two days after MH370 disappearance. He says "only when we had confirmation, corroboration, verification that the commercial flight that had been detected by military radar was the MH370 then we stopped our search in the South China sea."

So, a military radar track exists that has all the stamps of approval of Mr. Hussein.
Is that the military radar plot shown in Beijing that has been rejected by some on this thread?
If it is so strongly "corroborated", why isn't it officially released? Would that jeopardize the ongoing investigation?
 
YoungMans
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 7:32 am

All along in this I had a feeling, a guess, which last night's ABC-4Corners seemed to almost confirm or at least make it more plausible.

The Malaysian Government is not responding as one would expect and as it surely ought to.
Why would that be? Why are the Malaysians acting as they do?

My guess is that there is much more behind the disappearance of MH370 than is publicly known and meets the eye (what else is new you might think). I reckon, 'guess' if you like, whatever happened was almost immediately known to the relevant authorities, or personnel in the Malaysian hierarchy, probably already in or soon after that 90 seconds they are talking about. I would guess the Malaysians were told, behind the scenes, and in no uncertain terms, before they even realised that their plane had gone.

It could have been a remote hijack, the aircraft being shot down (by accident or deliberately) or anything. Whatever it is that might have happened was of a magnitude and sophistication far beyond a "..normal aircraft crash..", if there is such a thing.

The Malaysian Government may well be held to ransom, as it were, with the threat that if they don't play along, things much worse will happen (..to them..) than just the disappearance of one airliner.

Could this be? I don't know ...
But I do know that a lot of the facts, the ones we know, simply don't add up.
 
mandala499
Posts: 6589
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 8:41 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 26):
former MH Chief Pilot, who said, the 90 seconds between the last ATC communication and the transponder going off is the key.

The 90 seconds could have been:
1. Someone taking it over. (I don't think it's the Captain).
2. Fault on the Comms panel, or the audio management unit (I don't know if it's possible or the "stuck mic detector" on the AMU can give a false indication? Naah, thinking too far!), and cascades to the transponder.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 30):
* The brother-in-law of the Captain said the Captain's wife was not leaving him and that the Captain did not attend the Anwar trial the evening of the flight.

This was known but quickly "hushed up"... I wonder why... see below...

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 30):
* The Captain's friend said the Captain was proud of the fight sim and there was nothing to hide about it as he often posted about it on Facebook. Also, regarding the deleted data, the flight sim broke down in 2013 and was undergoing repairs - apparently the Captain has not been able to use it since 2013. Also, he said that the Captain would not have made a decision to take the plane based on the Anwar verdict in such a short time after the trial.

From day 1 I believed the Sim thing is a red herring.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 30):
* Former 777 pilots state that communications might have been lost because of a fire but if so the plane would not then have been able to fly for another seven hours.

It is unlikely, but that doesn't mean it's impossible.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 30):
* Malaysian defense minister makes a comment, when asked about sending a military jet to see what the radar blip was, about seeing no need to send a military jet unless it intended to shoot the plane down. The reporter then asked something like (Why shoot it down if it's not hostile?") to which he replied "The Americans would" - It is at around the 35:20 mark - I just though it was an interesting comment - don't know what to make of it...

That really sums up the attitude of the current Malaysian government...

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 40):
My guess is that there is much more behind the disappearance of MH370 than is publicly known and meets the eye (what else is new you might think).

I think so too. I think the captain's association with the opposition makes them think it was an opportunity to cover up their own bungles by trying to make the captain look like the villain... This is typical Indo-Malay style cover up through diversion... but even on the conspiracy theory of a cover up, a lot of loose ends needs to be looked at to make it with some certainty that a concerted cover up effort is in process. The perfect cover up is to not ever find the aircraft, but I don't think the Malaysian government as a whole is hoping for the aircraft to never be found... I don't think they're that evil...

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 40):
It could have been a remote hijack, the aircraft being shot down (by accident or deliberately) or anything. Whatever it is that might have happened was of a magnitude and sophistication far beyond a "..normal aircraft crash..", if there is such a thing.

One of the conspiracy theory is that after it disappeared from radar, the aircraft took a slow cruise to maximise endurance (not range), as the perpetrators were negotiating with the government on whatever it may be, and then the negotiations broke down and the perpetrators carried out their threat. There is a possible 330Kts ground speed curve that can meet all the ping rings... that would make it nearer to Java than Australia. I don't buy the ditch due to run out of fuel and not have the aircraft breaking up, but a good ditching effort could produce a "relatively clean ditch"...

But again... I may be smoking something that is getting me high at the moment (as someone accused me of a while back!    )
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
NAV30
Posts: 1080
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 10:37 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 41):
There is a possible 330Kts ground speed curve that can meet all the ping rings... that would make it nearer to Java than Australia.

Still fascinated by the northern route thing. In my - very limited - experience the very worst thing you could do was alter direction or altitude without (first) telling ATC. According to current 'doctrine' that's exactly what these two professional pilots are supposed to have done? More or less ending their careers if they'd survived, unless they had a VERY good reason?

I also recall reading that the experts were having trouble 'reconciling' the turns to the west; as part of any such track would have required MH370 to fly at something like an (impossible) 500 knots, and also to have lost a lot of height?

Just my opinion so far - but I suspect that it looks (increasingly) possible that MH370 did not in fact turn west/south at all? But instead continued north - only to be 'dropped off radar' by both ATC and Inmarsat, who had (jointly or severally) decided that it had turned pretty well due south?

As far as I can work out, that would still result in 'pings' showing in both directions on the Inmarsat display? But it would be Inmarsat's decision as to whether they were recorded as southbound or northbound?

[Edited 2014-05-20 03:51:10]
 
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p51tang
Posts: 69
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 11:04 am

Quote:
Malaysia said Tuesday it will publicly release satellite data used to narrow down the search for the missing jetliner to the southern Indian Ocean.

The Civil Aviation Department and British company Inmarsat in a joint statement said they would do this "in line with our commitment to greater transparency."

Some family members of the 239 people on the plane have demanded raw satellite data to be made public for independent analysis.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news...ticle.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11258455
 
LovesCoffee
Posts: 222
Joined: Thu May 31, 2012 4:07 am

RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 11:32 am

Maybe not the best source, but CNN also has an article about the release of the raw satellite data titled "MH370 raw satellite data to be publicized after months of waiting" and it can be found here.

[Edited 2014-05-20 04:33:57]
Life is too short for cheap coffee.
 
NAV30
Posts: 1080
Joined: Sat Mar 15, 2014 9:16 am

RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 12:03 pm

Thanks. LovesCoffee.

All we need now are simple, honest explanations as to why a scheduled airliner heading for Peking should a) have turned about 90 degrees west, b) then followed an S-shaped course, and c) lost 4-5,000 feet of altitude?

Begins just about to 'scream' cover-up?
 
lancelot07
Posts: 1084
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 1:53 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 42):
As far as I can work out, that would still result in 'pings' showing in both directions on the Inmarsat display? But it would be Inmarsat's decision as to whether they were recorded as southbound or northbound?

If you dismiss the Doppler-analysis, the plane could be on the northern arc. But you have to dismiss ALL the satellite data, including the arcs, if you assume it has continued its path to Peking. And the arcs were never doubted by anyone. Afaik Inmarsat did not decide anything, the investigation did. And we had reports that China will search in the north.
 
David L
Posts: 8551
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 2:26 am

RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 2:21 pm

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 46):
But you have to dismiss ALL the satellite data, including the arcs, if you assume it has continued its path to Peking.

   ... As well as a significant portion of 63 threads-worth of discussion, even with all the "padding".
 
Backseater
Posts: 478
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 3:20 pm

RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 2:51 pm

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 46):
f you dismiss the Doppler-analysis, the plane could be on the northern arc

I don't think you would have to dismiss the Doppler analysis to fit the northern arc, but it seems harder to find a smooth track that fits. Somebody would have to pilot the a/c and perform some heading/speed changes to match the RTD/Doppler constraints.

But since no one on 9M-MRO could have known what those constraints were, the least astonishing solution seems to belong to the southern arc. Provided the unpublished error margins on the Inmarsat data are small otherwise the discrimination between northern and southern arc becomes weaker.
 
comorin
Posts: 3858
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 2:59 pm

Quoting David L (Reply 47):

David L, you did a great job as NAV20's prefect on the AF447 threads. Good to have you back!
 
aftgaffe
Posts: 176
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2014 7:18 am

RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 3:10 pm

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 41):
One of the conspiracy theory is that after it disappeared from radar, the aircraft took a slow cruise to maximise endurance (not range), as the perpetrators were negotiating with the government on whatever it may be, and then the negotiations broke down and the perpetrators carried out their threat. There is a possible 330Kts ground speed curve that can meet all the ping rings... that would make it nearer to Java than Australia.

Leaving to the side the WTF! issues*... would the negotiations necessarily have not used satcom (otherwise no hourly handshakes)? And so the lack of a 23:40 Z handshake, which has collectively been presumed to have been caused by an attempted satcom from MAS to the plane around 23:11 Z... that would likely have only occurred if MAS did not know about this hijacking or the non-satcom negotiations had broken off (at least temporarily) for whatever reason?


*Edit - And with all the standard disclaimers that this is just one theory among many and no one is endorsing it, vouching for it, etc.

[Edited 2014-05-20 08:12:39]
 
aerodog
Posts: 114
Joined: Tue Jun 13, 2006 10:48 am

RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 3:12 pm

Not sure where this fits into the equation, but my experience with Chinese scientists and engineers is that they are brilliant theorists. If they are turned loose with the raw data, it will be interesting to see what conclusions they may reach.
 
Backseater
Posts: 478
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 3:20 pm

RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 4:00 pm

Regarding the IGARI-BITOD question I asked yesterday (post #11), I have received some information on ATC display operations. I think we can safely build scenarios based on the transponder disappearing shortly after IGARI, between 01:21 and 01:22 at which point the a/c was free to change course. The a/c did not proceed to BITOD.
 
markak
Posts: 43
Joined: Thu Mar 20, 2014 1:14 am

RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 4:23 pm

Quoting aftgaffe (Reply 50):
Quoting mandala499 (Reply 41):
One of the conspiracy theory is that after it disappeared from radar, the aircraft took a slow cruise to maximise endurance (not range), as the perpetrators were negotiating with the government on whatever it may be, and then the negotiations broke down and the perpetrators carried out their threat. There is a possible 330Kts ground speed curve that can meet all the ping rings... that would make it nearer to Java than Australia.

Leaving to the side the WTF! issues*... would the negotiations necessarily have not used satcom (otherwise no hourly handshakes)? And so the lack of a 23:40 Z handshake, which has collectively been presumed to have been caused by an attempted satcom from MAS to the plane around 23:11 Z... that would likely have only occurred if MAS did not know about this hijacking or the non-satcom negotiations had broken off (at least temporarily) for whatever reason?

That brings up an interesting question for the experts.

What type of HF radio facilities are on the 777?

Could they be easily tuned to some pre-arranged but obscure frequency and used for more or less covert communications to almost anywhere?

Mark
 
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7BOEING7
Posts: 3039
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2012 5:28 pm

RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 4:34 pm

Quoting MarkAK (Reply 53):
That brings up an interesting question for the experts.

What type of HF radio facilities are on the 777?

Could they be easily tuned to some pre-arranged but obscure frequency and used for more or less covert communications to almost anywhere?

Two HF radios and yes.
 
Backseater
Posts: 478
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 3:20 pm

RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 5:19 pm

Commercial Aircraft with HF SSB radios flying across oceans use Aeronautical mobile HF sub-bands in the range 2850 to 15100kHz. Lost of choices but anybody can listen in with the right gear.
 
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Finn350
Posts: 1578
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 8:04 pm

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 39):

So, a military radar track exists that has all the stamps of approval of Mr. Hussein.
Is that the military radar plot shown in Beijing that has been rejected by some on this thread?
If it is so strongly "corroborated", why isn't it officially released? Would that jeopardize the ongoing investigation?

The military radar plot is direct evidence of the Malaysian military radar detection capability I understand why they have not released the military radar plot officially. However, as the plot is already (accidentally?) released, it probably would no further harm to release it officially. And as I understand it, in any case they are going to upgrade their military radars because of this incident.
 
Backseater
Posts: 478
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 3:20 pm

RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 9:15 pm

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 56):
However, as the plot is already (accidentally?) released, it probably would no further harm to release it officially.

I agree. The radar plot contains no secrets to speak of. Tracking a ubiquitous 777 with a huge RCS is of no interest to anybody today.

But I remember being at Le Bourget airshow years ago (1991?) when the Lockheed F-117 was scheduled to make a fly-by. All the exhibitors (and others) near the flight line that had equipment that could record any observables were certainly preparing for and focused on that event.

The radar plot is IMO a formidable piece of evidence for the investigation, not for radar technology evaluation. I know that both Pihero and WP want to fly 9M-MRO at high speed across Malaysia and on towards the Indian Ocean, because of their obsession with the first RTD ring. But I don't think that the radar plot can be easily reconciled with such scenarios.
 
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Finn350
Posts: 1578
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:57 am

RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 9:39 pm

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 57):
I know that both Pihero and WP want to fly 9M-MRO at high speed across Malaysia and on towards the Indian Ocean, because of their obsession with the first RTD ring. But I don't think that the radar plot can be easily reconciled with such scenarios.

Actually, WP accepts the military radar plot as long as it can be made to fit his "490 knot cruise speed" theory. Pihero rejects the military radar plot as it is very difficult to reconcile nothing but a direct flight from IGARI no north of Sumatra in his "toxic fumes incapacitated the crew" theory.
 
JHwk
Posts: 564
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2013 2:11 am

RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 10:05 pm

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 58):
Pihero rejects the military radar plot as it is very difficult to reconcile nothing but a direct flight from IGARI no north of Sumatra in his "toxic fumes incapacitated the crew" theory.

I think there is a little more to Pihero's rejection than just that; flight times don't reconcile nor does fuel if I can recall back 30 threads or so ago... there may also have been concern with the lack of another ping that may have occurred on WP's track.
 
Kaiarahi
Posts: 1807
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 6:55 pm

RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Tue May 20, 2014 10:23 pm

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 57):
The radar plot is IMO a formidable piece of evidence for the investigation

Thai military radar would be equally formidable, especially given the apparent obfuscation of Malaysian authorities. It's highly unlikely they would have missed it, given the high level of military alertness culminating in the declaration of martial law today. In my mind, the possibilities (not all mutually exclusive) are: 1) MH370 never penetrated Thai airspace/FIR or was not perceived as a threat; 2) it was captured by Thai radar, but the Thai military has kept the information to itself; 3) Thai radar data has been provided to Malaysia, but the Malaysians are not acknowledging/releasing it.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 41):
Quoting YoungMans (Reply 40):
My guess is that there is much more behind the disappearance of MH370 than is publicly known and meets the eye (what else is new you might think).

I think so too. I think the captain's association with the opposition makes them think it was an opportunity to cover up their own bungles by trying to make the captain look like the villain... This is typical Indo-Malay style cover up through diversion...

I note that the Malaysian authorities have not even announced the leadership or composition of the investigation team, or formally identified the countries with accredited representation.

[Edited 2014-05-20 15:25:05]
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