lancelot07
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Thu May 22, 2014 5:33 pm

and then, a few reasonability checks would be helpful, too. E.g.:

Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 95):
He decides to divert the plane to Diego Garcia as a political protest.

Why Diego Garcia, of all places ? Almost certainly, he never was there before.

Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 95):
He does not want to hurt anyone or get involved in a physical fight for control

Why then go to 43000 ft (questionable if possible so soon after take off, considering the weight) and depressurize the plane ? This will hurt ! At 1:20 in the night, passengers will be sleeping anyway, and the door is locked. Not much chances for a fight.
And

Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 95):
but there is also an oxygen bottle and so the co-pilot and some of cabin crew are using this and trying to get into the cockpit

This is of course well known by the captain.

Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 95):
At some point, he releases the oxygen for more than 10 seconds and loses consciousness,

The eternal question: WHY, if a safe landing in DG was his plan ?

btw, it seems to be an established fact that he did not attend the trial, and Anwar Ibrahim has only met him a few times - maybe not so close a friend, after all.
So maybe a script for a Hollywood-movie, but highly unlikely in reality.
In ancient times, people would have said some god was angry and vowed to make more sacrifices.
 
lancelot07
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Thu May 22, 2014 5:42 pm

Quoting MarkAK (Reply 99):
Actually this information is readily available...
http://www.duncansteel.com/archives/362

Actually, it is not.
excerpt from the link:

Quote:
Various commentators have mused on the possibility of determining constraints on earlier positions of MH370 through pings from Inmarsat-3F1 that might have occurred in earlier hours than Time P. As I would maintain that it is important to take into account the actual position of the satellite at the times of pings, I have calculated the locations of Inmarsat-3F1 at a dozen different times, these being times of interest as tabulated in the Wikipedia article on the disappearance of MH370.

Mr. Steel likes reverse engineering. May or may not be accurate - nobody knows, at least not outside Inmarsat.

[Edited 2014-05-22 10:44:02]
 
David L
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Thu May 22, 2014 5:47 pm

Quoting MarkAK (Reply 99):
Actually this information is readily available...

Whoops, yes. I mean Inmarsat haven't released their workings. Either way, if Inmarsat have made any errors, they won't be as obvious as the one Nav30 seems to think they've made.

Edit:

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 101):
May or may not be accurate - nobody knows, at least not outside Inmarsat

Unfortunately I'm not in a position to judge conclusively but I can see why his word isn't taken as gospel by everyone.

[Edited 2014-05-22 10:53:28]
 
LH707330
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Thu May 22, 2014 6:16 pm

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 85):
As for the infrequent returns, I always fall back to the plausible explanation that the a/c was flying below or maybe just around the radar horizon altitude, that will no doubt make Pihero cringe . But does anybody have another plausible explanation?

I think the most plausible explanation is that the radar systems that the Thais and Malaysians have are not very good, or the operators were asleep, but they didn't want to admit it. They spent the first few days looking in the wrong place, if they clearly tracked it the whole way west, they wouldn't have bothered in the Gulf of Thailand. This is why Pihero and I are not using the radar in our flight path models.

Incidentally, the kinked path you see on many of the slides from the Malaysians conveniently avoids Thai airspace, where a direct westerly path would have overflown Thailand and they should have noticed. As quoted upstream, the Thais eventually admitted that they had seen something, but didn't seem to go after it. Also, someone mentioned that some of the radar dots and time stamps looked a bit suspect given the other information, leading me to think that it's not highly reliable. Piecing this all together, my best guess is that both the Malaysian and Thai radar systems are not particularly good, and that what we see is an attempt by both to look more put together than they really are.

Also, as a note on some of the mud-slinging, please assume good faith, ask for clarifications, and PM one another if you think you've been slighted and wish to resolve something. We're all here because we love planes, no need to drive people off the site (or off these threads) by bickering.
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Thu May 22, 2014 6:51 pm

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 85):
As for the infrequent returns, I always fall back to the plausible explanation that the a/c was flying below or maybe just around the radar horizon altitude, that will no doubt make Pihero cringe . But does anybody have another plausible explanation?

The radar horizon altitude varies as the square of the distance. An aircraft usually increases its altitude linearly with distance. Therefore, if you start out above the radar horizon, if you fly away from the radar far enough you will eventually go below the radar horizon. This explains why the radar track disappears inside the white circle as the aircraft flies west. As for the aircraft re-appearing above the radar horizon again west of the white circle, it is likely that the radar returns west of the circle come from a second radar that has a lower radar horizon because it is on a high hill on Panang island. The first radar was located at Butterworth near sea level.
 
markak
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Thu May 22, 2014 8:15 pm

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 101):
Quoting MarkAK (Reply 99):
Actually this information is readily available...
http://www.duncansteel.com/archives/362

Actually, it is not.
excerpt from the link:

Quote:
Mr. Steel likes reverse engineering. May or may not be accurate - nobody knows, at least not outside Inmarsat.

===========
In this case we are discussing the position of 3F1, and nothing was "reverse engineered".
We are talking about the orbital position of 3F1 which is probably the least disputable piece of data in this entire affair.
The orbital parameters of many satellites are well publicized and Mr. Steele "forward engineered" the publicized data for 3F1 into an easy to visualize format.
 
YoungMans
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Thu May 22, 2014 9:55 pm

In these discussions we have heard much about the Doppler effect, BFO etc and how one can use that information to determine a likely path for flight MH370.

In this regard I have question:
Does the satellite also have wobbles in pitch, roll and yaw?
(Other than the wobble, back and forth, across the equator ...)
How much effect would that have on distances on the ground?

I hope I'm not asking something that has already been covered.

Thank you.

[Edited 2014-05-22 15:17:30]

[Edited 2014-05-22 15:18:08]
 
Backseater
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Thu May 22, 2014 9:58 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 104):
As for the aircraft re-appearing above the radar horizon again west of the white circle, it is likely that the radar returns west of the circle come from a second radar that has a lower radar horizon because it is on a high hill on Panang island. The first radar was located at Butterworth near sea level.

What I explained with one radar and two rates of climb you propose to explain with an unknown but constant rate of climb and two radars. Why not.

But what is really interesting with your suggestion of using the 2nd radar on Pulau Pinang at an altitude of approx. 2700ft, you force the a/c to reappear at a much lower altitude approx. 7,000ft in your scheme vs. 18,000ft in mine. I thought you had been working on a track across Malaysia at high altitude and high speed!

As a matter of fact I had initially indicated that I was using Butterworth AB as antenna site rather than Pulau Pinang to reduce my exposure to criticisms re. low altitude flying. But if you insist!
 
EricR
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Thu May 22, 2014 10:25 pm

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 103):
the kinked path you see on many of the slides from the Malaysians conveniently avoids Thai airspace, where a direct westerly path would have overflown Thailand and they should have noticed. As quoted upstream, the Thais eventually admitted that they had seen something, but didn't seem to go after it. Also, someone mentioned that some of the radar dots and time stamps looked a bit suspect given the other information, leading me to think that it's not highly reliable. Piecing this all together, my best guess is that both the Malaysian and Thai radar systems are not particularly good, and that what we see is an attempt by both to look more put together than they really are.

Or.......another reason for the "kinked path" could be that Malaysia does not want Thailand to know the extent/depth of their radar capacity into Thailand.

The entire path from IGARI to VAMPI is based on data from Malaysian officials. Based on the poor quality/secrecy of data coming out of Malaysia, I find any route they provide with a high level of skepticism. The Malaysian government has lost so much credibility in my mind that I no longer believe in their IGARI to VAMPI routing and believe the plane could have gone in any direction after IGARI.
 
YVRLTN
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 12:31 am

Quoting MarkAK (Reply 84):
Has there been any official information released regarding exactly who performed the peer reviews?
http://aviationweek.com/commercial-a...alysis-helped-pinpoint-mh370s-path Mentions AAIB, Boeing and others in the space industry. Im going to guess Sean got this info from Inmarsat.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 81):
All I was doing was offering new information provided by Duncan Steel?

Im no math guy, so I get lost pretty quickly... but from what I have seen I would personally trust Inmarsat before Duncan Steel. And they seem pretty sure.
Follow me on twitter for YVR movements @vernonYVR
 
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BaconButty
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 12:58 am

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 109):
http://aviationweek.com/commercial-a...alysis-helped-pinpoint-mh370s-path Mentions AAIB, Boeing and others in the space industry. Im going to guess Sean got this info from Inmarsat.

Something that was interesting about the article you shared, was that Boeing go beyond reviewer:

Quote:
peer-reviewed by others in the space industry, and indeed contributed to by Boeing.

I'm stunned the inmarsat data is so controversial. No one asked WHOI to give their "working out" when they were dragged into the search for AF447. The radar data from Malaysia, Thailand and maybe Viet Nam are far more relevant and obfuscated (and interesting).
Down with that sort of thing!
 
NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 3:51 am

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 109):
from what I have seen I would personally trust Inmarsat before Duncan Steel.
Quoting BaconButty (Reply 110):
I'm stunned the inmarsat data is so controversial.

I don't think it's a matter of 'distrust' or 'controversy' as far as Inmarsat is concerned, guys. They have to do - or NOT do - whatever their clients tell them. And it is pretty clear that, so far, they have been 'instructed' not to release any information on pings to the north, or any possible northern route.

So Duncan Steel has no 'apparent' quarrel with Inmarsat. He is just asking 'the authorities' to lift the ban that they appear to have placed on Inmarsat publishing any information on any possible northern track?

The next few days will be interesting. Personally I don't think the various governments will 'come clean' on any possible northern route yet. For the reason that there is every possibility - probably 50% odds or better - that MH370 did not turn west, leave alone south...........
 
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dennypayne
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 4:49 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 111):
I don't think it's a matter of 'distrust' or 'controversy' as far as Inmarsat is concerned, guys.

If that is true, then why do you keep insisting that

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 111):
there is every possibility - probably 50% odds or better - that MH370 did not turn west, leave alone south...........

It has been explained to you over and over again why this isn't the case, so you clearly either don't understand the explanations or just choose to ignore them...
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NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 5:17 am

Quoting dennypayne (Reply 112):
If that is true, then why do you keep insisting

Simply because the northern pings haven't been published, dennypayne? Why do you think they haven't been? As I said, I don't think they have been suppressed by Inmarsat, I think they are 'under instructions'.......

Quoting dennypayne (Reply 112):
It has been explained to you over and over again why this isn't the case

No - all we've been told is that the available data suggests that a southern track is more likely? That has an unfortunate side-effect - it virtually 'confirms' that two capable pilots, with excellent records, deliberately flew the aeroplane thousands of miles off course and, in so doing, killed themselves and all the passengers?

Is that what YOU think happened?

[Edited 2014-05-22 22:20:59]
 
sipadan
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 7:08 am

'stumbled' across this little gem. Interpret it however you so choose. I'll only say that it is an excerpt from what I believe to be an official document, perhaps altered 'slightly'. Sorry for being so cryptic. I make no claim ti it's veracity. I only offer an opinion.

To the best available knowledge flight MH370 achieved between FL420 and FL440.***

To the best available knowledge flight MH370 achieved between FL40 and FL60 at a time in flight ASIDE from the initial climb out of KL and the end-stage of flight. 'Nb"...the use of end-stage rather than descent.***

To the best available knowledge flight MH370 was airborne for 7hours 39 minutes and some seconds.***

To the best available knowledge flight MH370 was Intentionally diverted.***

To the best available knowledge flight MH370 was intentionally flown to it's final destination in the SIO (southern Indian ocean).***

To the best available knowledge flight MH370, or proper parts of the a/c thereof, entered the SIO somewhere within the search area as defined and presented by the JACC on or around the day of April 17, 2014.***

To the best available knowledge, all 239 souls on board flight MH370 that departed KL at 00:41 MYT or 16:41 UTC on the day of March 8, 2014 are to the best available knowledge deceased.***

To the best available knowledge, flight MH370 safe passage, and the safe passage of all passengers and crew on board the a/c, was compromised by the deliberate actions of one individual. To the best available knowledge, this individual was not affiliated with, a member of, or a party to any known or recognized terrorist organization or
industry.***

***These statements have attached a high degree of confidence.

To the best available knowledge, the 227 passengers and 10 cabin crew were not complicit in, involved with, or a partner to any deliberate action against the aircraft.***

To the best available, the First Officer of flight MH370, was not complicit in, involved with, or a partner to any deliberate action AGAINST the aircraft.***[/quote]

***These statements have attached a moderate degree of confidence.

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 100):
btw, it seems to be an established fact that he did not attend the trial, and Anwar Ibrahim has only met him a few times - maybe not so close a friend, after all.

ummm...guess you didn't watch the four corners program??? Anwar verbatim in response to the question "How well did you Know Capt. Zaharie?" Anwar "Well, yes, I knew him reasonably well." "He was a strong supporter of the party." "I met him a number of times." "I remember having discussions with him." "We shared the same political concerns." "He's related to my daughter-in-law."

Did you do any homework before posting this rubbish?...and, no, it is NOT fact that he wasn't in attendance, so pleas don't present it as such, and it's irrelevant anyway. That he was a fanatic by almost any accepted and agreed upon standard is beyond question. Anwars dismisses Zaharie's fanaticism by saying he was 'articulate' and 'relaxed'. That was quite the funny moment. You know, all fanatics are inarticulate and frenzied!

Quoting Pihero (Reply 55):
I think I have proven beyond any doubt that a flight path at different altitudes is improbable, whatever assumption one makes : speeds, tracks, ping rings, and especially fuel.

Please explain to me how 'beyond any doubt' and 'improbable' coalesce? How can something "beyond ANY doubt" be 'improbable?" We must live in different worlds. Why do you abstain from the word impossible? Feels like a true semantic obfuscation.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 59):
It is because they are proceeding backward with some totally unproven / unconfirmed data... and they are cheating very hard to make facts fit the data ( and vice-versa).

Who is 'they'?

Quoting Pihero (Reply 59):
I was also very sorry for the ex-chief pilot, probably on a mission to help save face : that he had to cast mud on one of his colleagues was painful, and full of contradictions :

Or, he was speaking honestly and frankly and putting forth his best opinion per his knowledge, experience, and expertise. FULL of contradictions...please enlighten us. I must have missed them, and that Zaharie was on reserve is in no way a contradiction to anything said, though you incorrectly assert such.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 59):
I can't help but find that Captain Zaharie is the ideal fall guy... all the talk about his alleged guilt a convenient distraction from the main points : total dysfunction of all air defence / airline procedures / ATC protocols and communications / requirements on SAR OPS : Incerfa, Alerfa and Detresfa... etc... etc...

ideal fall guy...sure, the one who ACTUALLY committed the crime is ALWAYS the ideal fall guy. As I said before, the ONLY story here is the one Zaharie intended it to be: Malaysia political criminality and authoritarian governance. This was a cold-blooded sacrifice for the greater good (in his mind). Oh, and yes, the other story obviously is the one involving a/c surveillance and tracking, mental health protocols in aviation community.
 
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pvjin
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 7:27 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 114):
ideal fall guy...sure, the one who ACTUALLY committed the crime is ALWAYS the ideal fall guy. As I said before, the ONLY story here is the one Zaharie intended it to be: Malaysia political criminality and authoritarian governance. This was a cold-blooded sacrifice for the greater good (in his mind). Oh, and yes, the other story obviously is the one involving a/c surveillance and tracking, mental health protocols in aviation community.

How can we know it was Zaharie and not the co-pilot? You don't need to own a simulator to obtain enough knowledge to commit something like this.

People can have hidden mental illnesses, Zaharie's dislike of the current sad state of politics in Malaysia doesn't mean he was the one who committed this.
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
lancelot07
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 7:27 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 113):
Simply because the northern pings haven't been published, dennypayne? Why do you think they haven't been? As I said, I don't think they have been suppressed by Inmarsat, I think they are 'under instructions'.......

There are no northern pings. There are no southern pings either. There are pings - full stop.
And the northern arc has been published together with the southern.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 113):
No - all we've been told is that the available data suggests that a southern track is more likely? That has an unfortunate side-effect - it virtually 'confirms' that two capable pilots, with excellent records, deliberately flew the aeroplane thousands of miles off course and, in so doing, killed themselves and all the passengers?

That's a non sequitur.

Quoting sipadan (Reply 114):
Anwar verbatim in response to the question "How well did you Know Capt. Zaharie?" Anwar "Well, yes, I knew him reasonably well." "He was a strong supporter of the party." "I met him a number of times." "I remember having discussions with him." "We shared the same political concerns." "He's related to my daughter-in-law."

I would not take that as a description of a close friend, definitely not. And no trace of Captain Shah attending the trial, a simple yes or no-question.

Quoting sipadan (Reply 114):
ideal fall guy...sure, the one who ACTUALLY committed the crime is ALWAYS the ideal fall guy.

So far, we do not have any crime. But we are already presented a scapegoat. Amazing, isn't it ?
 
Pihero
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 7:38 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 114):
Who is 'they'?

You, in particular.
Didn't I make myself very clear on what I think of your agenda ?
Contrail designer
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 8:06 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 114):
'stumbled' across this little gem. Interpret it however you so choose. I'll only say that it is an excerpt from what I believe to be an official document, perhaps altered 'slightly'. Sorry for being so cryptic. I make no claim ti it's veracity. I only offer an opinion.

To the best available knowledge flight MH370 achieved between FL420 and FL440.***

To the best available knowledge flight MH370 achieved between FL40 and FL60 at a time in flight ASIDE from the initial climb out of KL and the end-stage of flight. 'Nb"...the use of end-stage rather than descent.***

I would tend to agree most of which you quote. Regarding the flight levels Pihero has shown that the high-low-high altitude flight between IGARI and north of Sumatra between 1721 Z and 1830 Z is ruled out by time constraints and aircraft maximum performance (unless there is a fault in Pihero's analysis).

As a whole, it sounds more like statements based on publicly available information than an official report.
 
Pihero
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 8:10 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 114):
How can something "beyond ANY doubt" be 'improbable?" W

Because I am an honest man : There is a set of trajectories which could match a low flight profile, and guess what ?
They all cross Sumatra on a direct line to the search area... but they can't check any other *assumprion* on radar tracks, official announcements, ping rings and especially fuel

Quoting sipadan (Reply 114):
We must live in different worlds

That we do, for sure. It's obvious and beyond any doubt   

Quoting sipadan (Reply 114):

To the best available knowledge flight MH370 achieved between FL40 and FL60 at a time in flight ASIDE from the initial climb out of KL and the end-stage of flight. 'Nb"...the use of end-stage rather than descent.***

The most idiotic, unknowledgeable, assinine part of your theory : Fuel quantity will not allow it.... by far...unless the perp had installed a refuelling system on this 772 and had an Iranian ( ? ) tanker to inflight refuel him... but then, your lone criminal theory is shot to hell. It's obviously IMPOSSIBLE
But of course, you haven't even bothered to check that possibility, have you ? that is obviouly impossible, otherwise you wouldn't be posting.
Contrail designer
 
Pihero
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 8:44 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 114):

To the best available knowledge flight MH370 achieved between FL420 and FL440.***

That is an impossibility, due to the performance of the airplane :
From the FCOM ( I can provide a copy of the page )
" ISA + 15° C Margin to initial Buffet"
220 T : 39,500 ft
210 T : 40,400 ft
Denote altitude Thrust limits in level flight ; 300 ft/min residual ROC

The temperature was - 42°C at FL 350 --> ISA + 13°C, close enough to 15.
So your so-called *best available knowledge* is - again - just a load of rubbish.
Unless of course fanaticism could transform the laws of aerodynamics and engine performance   
Contrail designer
 
chrisrad
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 9:13 am

Haven't seen this posted

http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel...earch/story-fnizu68q-1226928975742

UNDERWATER scientists have labelled the search for MH370 a “debacle” and say Prime Minister Tony Abbott was playing politics when he prematurely announced the black box pingers had been found.
The acoustic experts, who do not wish to be identified, said the four crucial signals detected by a US pinger locator were almost certainly not from the missing Malaysian Airlines plane’s black boxes, but from another man-made source.
They insisted that the signals were in the wrong frequency and detected too far apart to be from the boxes.
“As soon as I saw the frequency and the distance between the pings I knew it couldn’t be the aircraft pinger,” one scientist told News Corp Australia.
That conclusion is supported by the lack of success from a detailed search of the area conducted by the US deep sea drone ‘Bluefin 21’.
Welcome aboard Malaysia Airlines! Winner of Best Cabin Staff 2001,2002,2003,2004,2007,2009,2012
 
David L
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 9:41 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 113):
Simply because the northern pings haven't been published, dennypayne? Why do you think they haven't been?

Well...

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 116):
There are no northern pings. There are no southern pings either. There are pings - full stop.
And the northern arc has been published together with the southern.

   Before the Doppler analysis was done, the probable location of the aircraft at the time of the final ping was released as a pair of arcs, one to the north of the equator and one to the south. The preference for the southern arc came about as a result of further study by Inmarsat, including the Doppler analysis.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 113):
As I said, I don't think they have been suppressed by Inmarsat, I think they are 'under instructions'

Under instructions to lie about the southern route? If the Malaysians were to "instruct" them to tell lies then Inmarsat, as a British commercial company, would be perfectly entitled to tell them to get lost. Inmarsat volunteered their services with a type of assistance never (to my knowledge) used before in this way. They could have stayed out of it.

I find it equally improbable that the AAIB, NTSB, Boeing, Rolls Royce, etc, would be actively complicit in a bunch of lies simply to help Malaysia or Thailand save face. Perhaps there are more compelling reasons for them to risk their reputations but that would be pure conjecture at this stage.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 113):
it virtually 'confirms' that two capable pilots, with excellent records, deliberately flew the aeroplane thousands of miles off course

No it doesn't. It only confirms that the aircraft ended up thousands of miles off course.
 
NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 10:24 am

Maybe worth mentioning that (as far as I know) there are two sorts of 'ping.'

As I understand it, the ones we hear most about are emergency beacons on the aeroplane, which send out signals (for about a month) if it crashes, whether in the sea or on land. The 'authorities' thought at first that beacons of that type were detected in the (southern) area in which MH370 was initially believed to have crashed. Since then there have been doubts as to whether the 'pings' in question emanated from sea creatures 'tagged' by scientists, if only because the wavelengths were pretty varied. In any event, all such beacons have run out of power now.

The second kind are signals from a given aeroplane which are intercepted by the navigational satellite. These occur about once an hour while a given aeroplane is in flight. They are not 'directional' - they effectively generate radial signals, to both north and south. These were 'captured' by the Inmarsat satellite, and that information was recorded and is still available. However, the satellite receives/records only the 'distance out' from the satellite, not a specific direction. Therefore the satellite returns two 'ping points' for each signal - one to the north and one to the south.

So far, in this case, only the southern 'ping points' have been published.

[Edited 2014-05-23 03:43:11]
 
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p51tang
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 10:39 am

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 29):
My guess is that there is much more behind the disappearance of MH370 than is publicly known and meets the eye (what else is new you might think). I reckon, 'guess' if you like, whatever happened was almost immediately known to the relevant authorities, or personnel in the Malaysian hierarchy

No need to talk it up at all.Homosexuality is banned in Malaysia,as in most Muslim Countries.What if someone had the opportunity, in a position of 'Power & Control' to send the ultimate message?.'That's what I reckon'.

Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 95):
So he waits until the co-pilot leaves the cockpit to go to the toilet, and then switches off the transponder and turns the plane around.

Must have dibs on peoples bladder control,in a coordinated fashion.

[Edited 2014-05-23 04:12:45]
 
lancelot07
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 11:00 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 123):
The second kind are signals from a given aeroplane which are intercepted by the navigational satellite. These occur about once an hour while a given aeroplane is in flight. They are not 'directional' - they effectively generate radial signals, to both north and south. These were 'captured' by the Inmarsat satellite, and that information was recorded and is still available. However, the satellite receives/records only the 'distance out' from the satellite, not the direction. Therefore the satellite returns two 'ping points' for each signal - one to the north and one to the south.

So far, in this case, only the southern 'ping points' have been published.

NO !
They are not 'directional' - they effectively generate radial signals, ----- correct so far, but then you go wrong. There is just one signal involved, giving one distance per handshake. From that, a distance satellite to plane can be derived, giving a circle. The circle is reduced to 2 arcs by other constraints like the maximum distance the plane could have travelled.
There are -unfortunately(!!)- not just 2 points, but 2 thousands of miles long arcs.

Once again - there are no northern pings to be published. But there are ping-rings before that that could be published.
Please understand that nobody is willfully discriminating against the north.  

[Edited 2014-05-23 04:03:13]
 
Pihero
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 11:03 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 123):

The second kind are signals from a given aeroplane which are intercepted by the navigational satellite. These occur about once an hour while a given aeroplane is in flight. They are not 'directional' - they effectively generate radial signals, to both north and south. These were 'captured' by the Inmarsat satellite, and that information was recorded and is still available. However, the satellite receives/records only the 'distance out' from the satellite, not the direction. Therefore the satellite returns two 'ping points' for each signal - one to the north and one to the south.

Jesus !
after nearly three months, that's what you've learned !   

That's totally incorrect . The initial release of the system was about queries from the satellite, respenses from the airplane that it was still there, and the log for these exchanges were analysed by Inmarsat : an accurate analysis of the times between the sat query and the airplane response and the ground station allowed a locus -defined by the Collins Dictionary as :" a set of points whose location satisfies or is determined by one or more specified conditions: the locus of points equidistant from a given point is a circle. "

So there are billions of possible points on these *loci*.

A further analysis allowed to eliminate the northern part of these circles of position ( and ,btw, the western part as the airplane was flying away from the satellite ).
The Doppler analysis confirmed that the northern routes were very very unlikely.
The final analysis was ddone with a set of possible speeds, from the aircraft performance / fuel consumption / trajectory scenarios...
That analysis, as I understand with the comments of the French media, was done with the help of some advanced statistical methods... bayesian logic... to arrive at the - now final - search area.

[Edited 2014-05-23 04:06:17]

[Edited 2014-05-23 04:07:00]
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David L
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 11:10 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 123):
Therefore the satellite returns two 'ping points' for each signal - one to the north and one to the south.
Quoting NAV30 (Reply 123):
So far, in this case, only the southern 'ping points' have been published.

  

Lancelot07 and Pihero beat me to it but I still want to add...

No! Just... no!
 
NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 12:17 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 126):
A further analysis allowed to eliminate the northern part of these circles of position ( and ,btw, the western part as the airplane was flying away from the satellite ).

Need more information, Pihero (or the others).

The aeroplane took off just about dead on the Equator.

So surely, whether flying north or south, it would be 'flying away from it'? AND therefore from the satellite?

[Edited 2014-05-23 05:22:14]
 
David L
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 12:24 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 128):
The aeroplane took off just about dead on the Equator.

So sorely, whether flying north or south, it would be 'flying away from it'? AND the satellite?

Until the general vicinity of IGARI, yes. Is anyone disputing that?

Seriously, you're a couple of months behind the discussion.
 
NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 12:32 pm

Quoting David L (Reply 129):
Until the general vicinity of IGARI, yes. Is anyone disputing that?

I'd just like to see the northern segment 'ping points,' DavidL. There must BE some, given that we can all agree that the aeroplane flew north for the best part of an hour at the least?

I'd just like to see any 'pings' that occurred (on the northern track) during that time - and possibly after that?

Why is that too much to ask?
 
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BaconButty
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 12:50 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 130):
I'd just like to see any 'pings' that occurred (on the northern track) during that time - and possibly after that?

Why is that too much to ask?

Nav, what people have been trying to tell you is that there are no Southern and Northern pings - just pings that give a distance to a geostationary satellite. And strictly speaking only the final one of those has been released. Where this sphere intersects with the surface (assuming the final partial ping was at impact) of the earth gives you a set of possible locations for the aircraft. The map linked below will illustrate it - and being from before the point where the doppler offset analysis ruled out the northern arc, you'll get to see that too, and your life will be complete.
http://www.slate.com/content/dam/sla...map.jpg.CROP.promo-mediumlarge.jpg
Down with that sort of thing!
 
lancelot07
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 1:12 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 128):
So surely, whether flying north or south, it would be 'flying away from it'? AND therefore from the satellite?

1. yes, if "it" means the equator.
2. Not necessarily. The plane moves. The satellite also moves. "Away" suddenly is relative. They plane compensates for its movement (how?), the satellite does not. Actually, the Doppler analysis depends on the movement of the satellite only. And the movements of the satellite were not officially published by Inmarsat.
Mr. Steel made his own calculation, but it was never confirmed by somebody official.

It is interesting to see that virtually nobody doubts the arcs, but some people doubt the Doppler analysis. Inmarsat certainly has no known reason to prefer one arc over the other, but it makes you wonder if they were asked to cover some other, classified source.
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 1:39 pm

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 107):
What I explained with one radar and two rates of climb you propose to explain with an unknown but constant rate of climb and two radars. Why not.

But what is really interesting with your suggestion of using the 2nd radar on Pulau Pinang at an altitude of approx. 2700ft, you force the a/c to reappear at a much lower altitude approx. 7,000ft in your scheme vs. 18,000ft in mine. I thought you had been working on a track across Malaysia at high altitude and high speed!

As a matter of fact I had initially indicated that I was using Butterworth AB as antenna site rather than Pulau Pinang to reduce my exposure to criticisms re. low altitude flying. But if you insist!

Frankly, it doesn't matter. The plane's altitude is constrained by the a/c's speed: on the order of 500 to 510 GS.

Quoting EricR (Reply 108):
The Malaysian government has lost so much credibility in my mind that I no longer believe in their IGARI to VAMPI routing and believe the plane could have gone in any direction after IGARI.

This also disregards the Inmarsat "ping rings". That's the thing: the Malaysian Royal Air Force radar track is consistent with the 18:27Z Inmarsat LOP.
 
LTC8K6
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 1:55 pm

I think the critical point is near IGARI.

Until we find the plane, I mean.

Exactly what happened near IGARI, what radars were tracking 9M-MRO at that point, if any, which way did it turn, what maneuvers were made, etc.

Everything goes wacky near IGARI.

What do the sat pings tell us about what went on near IGARI? Did a turn there generate a handshake?
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 2:02 pm

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 134):
What do the sat pings tell us about what went on near IGARI?

That there had to be a turn to the west?
 
Backseater
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 2:06 pm

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 132):
They plane compensates for its movement (how?), the satellite does not.

Two possible methods acceptable per Inmarsat specifications: measure or calculate. Honeywell satcom assumed to be on-board only partially calculates the AES frequency offset correction.

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 132):
Actually, the Doppler analysis depends on the movement of the satellite only

NO!!! Also depends in particular on uncorrected residual motion of a/c, AES oscillator reference and drift, broadcast satellite parameters approximations, up-converter error from L to C-band on 3F1 (pilot Tx frequency error), demodulator measurement errors in the GES, recorded resolution in the GES.

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 132):
the movements of the satellite were not officially published by Inmarsat.

NORAD orbital parameters for 3F1 are known. Inmarsat does not have to publish them if they don't care to.

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 132):
It is interesting to see that virtually nobody doubts the arcs

Maybe I am a "virtual nobody" but I have definitely questioned for the longest time the location of the pings (calibration issue) and their unknown margins or error.
 
mandala499
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 3:34 pm

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 107):
As a matter of fact I had initially indicated that I was using Butterworth AB as antenna site rather than Pulau Pinang to reduce my exposure to criticisms re. low altitude flying. But if you insist!

Warren,
THis is the part I don't get with the 2 radar idea... why then allow for the gap to exist in the picture of where it went?
If 1 is at Butterworth and the other is in the hills in Penang, by the time he completed the turn, he would have been visible to the radar on the hills.. why then would the guy assembling the info for the nice pictures allow for a gap in the middle? Unless, you're implying he's a sloppy idiot?

Quoting sipadan (Reply 114):
ideal fall guy...sure, the one who ACTUALLY committed the crime is ALWAYS the ideal fall guy. As I said before, the ONLY story here is the one Zaharie intended it to be: Malaysia political criminality and authoritarian governance. This was a cold-blooded sacrifice for the greater good (in his mind). Oh, and yes, the other story obviously is the one involving a/c surveillance and tracking, mental health protocols in aviation community.

5 years in Malaysia may not be enough for you then...   
The guys in MH who knows him (from across the whole political spectrum) doesn't seem to think that this ideal fall guy was the one doing it... those who know both of them, are on the viewpoint that if it has to be one of the 2 pilots doing it, it could be either of them.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 126):
That analysis, as I understand with the comments of the French media, was done with the help of some advanced statistical methods... bayesian logic... to arrive at the - now final - search area.

Oh I am disappointed, I thought it would be WarrenPlatts who got them to the final search area instead of advanced statistics with bayesian stuff...

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 123):
So far, in this case, only the southern 'ping points' have been published.

Hey WarrenPlatts, why don't you ask NAV30 what he's been smoking...   
NAV.... mate... no... the ping points on a map are not ping points... the burst frequency offsets published includes all the pings they got for the flight...

So... to answer...

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 130):
I'd just like to see any 'pings' that occurred (on the northern track) during that time - and possibly after that?

The northern direction portion of the flight, are included in the published BFO graphs.

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 133):
Frankly, it doesn't matter.

It never does matter when someone questions your ideas...   
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
B777fan
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 4:15 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 130):
Why is that too much to ask?

I'll give it one more go. You do seem to be struggling with the concept.

First, think about the last ping ring only since it is the only one published. When the plane was pinged by the satellite at that time, all that was calculated was a distance to the satellite. That distance could be plotted as a giant circle many thousands of miles in diameter on the surface of the earth. That is the ping ring. No point on that circle is pinpointed in any way.

The ping arcs are just segments of that circle that could be reached by the limits of the aircraft. That eliminates huge sections of the ping ring as being physically impossible for the plane to have been at. The plane could only be on those smaller arcs. North or south. The part you seem to be missing is that at the time of the ping the plane could be at ANY point on those arcs. That was all that was known until INMARSAT stated that their analysis of the doppler shift suggests the southern arc as much more likely.

Assume just for moment that INMARSAT is correct. That means that at the time of the last ping, the plane could be anywhere on the very long southern arc. No calculation from the satellite can put it at a point on that arc.

All the points that are being discussed by anybody are just guesses pure and simple. That doesn't mean that some of the guesses aren't better than the others for logical reasons but in the end - any specific point is pure speculation.

Some people want to include the northern arc as well but I believe INMARSAT has the capability to do what they say they have done. Either way, the southern arc has never been eliminated by anybody.
 
lancelot07
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 4:25 pm

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 136):
NO!!! Also depends in particular on uncorrected residual motion of a/c, AES oscillator reference and drift, broadcast satellite parameters approximations, up-converter error from L to C-band on 3F1 (pilot Tx frequency error), demodulator measurement errors in the GES, recorded resolution in the GES.

Thanks ! Even more complicated than i thought, and even less suited for an away/toward equator-approach.

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 136):
Maybe I am a "virtual nobody" but I have definitely questioned for the longest time the location of the pings (calibration issue) and their unknown margins or error.

True, but apart from margin of errors the results seem undisputed.
 
LTC8K6
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 4:28 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 135):

That there had to be a turn to the west?

Yet no map of the purported flight path seems to show a turn to the west at IGARI.

We have the most common map, which shows a sharp turn at IGARI back to Malaysia.

We have another map which shows a big right turning loop at IGARI.

We have FR24 which shows the normal right turn to ~40 degrees, before data loss.

Note that when I reference IGARI, I mean near IGARI, not exactly at the waypoint.
 
Pihero
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 4:31 pm

Hmmmmmh !   
This :

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 133):
The plane's altitude is constrained by the a/c's speed: on the order of 500 to 510 GS.

...plus this :

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 133):
That's the thing: the Malaysian Royal Air Force radar track is consistent with the 18:27Z Inmarsat LOP.

... means that we're in for another umpteenth theory / trajectory / scenario / search area...

...or am I imagining ?

Keep posted, folks.

[Edited 2014-05-23 09:32:05]
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WingedMigrator
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 4:39 pm

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 101):
Mr. Steel likes reverse engineering. May or may not be accurate - nobody knows, at least not outside Inmarsat.
Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 132):
And the movements of the satellite were not officially published by Inmarsat.

Please stop this nonsense!

The satellite orbital elements used by Mr. Steel to compute the satellite motion came from the United States space command, not Inmarsat. The whereabouts of the satellite are not only public, but easily predictable. Such is the beauty of orbital motion. There are a lot of unknowns in this incident, but the motion of the satellite is NOT one of them.
 
hivue
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 5:52 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 126):
So there are billions of possible points on these *loci*.

Technically an infinite number.  But if you're talking "777 size" points, maybe hundreds of thousands?
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
lancelot07
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 6:08 pm

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 142):
Please stop this nonsense!

The satellite orbital elements used by Mr. Steel to compute the satellite motion came from the United States space command, not Inmarsat

I stand corrected and will believe.   
 
abba
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 7:29 pm

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 137):
5 years in Malaysia may not be enough for you then...

I have seen many an expat living in Asia for 5+ years who have been knowing as little when he/she left as when he/she came about the local people and their culture.

Remember that Saipanda also claims to be a medical trained psychiatric who nevertheless does psychiatric diagnoses across major cultural divides based on a combination of reading Facebook and study Wikipedia... The key to that exercise should be the existence of a particular Malaysian and Indonesian psychiatric condition that apply to people of these two great cultures only. This in spite of the fact that some of the main references in the Wikipedia article linked to by Saipadan claim that such a condition is nothing but a myth. This also is in accordance with the well known fact that the entire Eurasian population has a genetic variation that is less than the one found in many local African populations. And to my knowledge - and I don't claim any psychiatric titles - most (if not all) psychiatric conditions has at least a somatic component.

And again. How could an atheistic Dawkins inspired man support Anwar Ibrahim to an extent that he would kill himself and a plane full of innocent pax and crew. You don't need to know much about the last few decades of Malaysian politics to realize that this is rather unlikely.
 
giopan1975
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 8:09 pm

Quoting sipadan (Reply 114):
Did you do any homework before posting this rubbish?...and, no, it is NOT fact that he wasn't in attendance, so pleas don't present it as such, and it's irrelevant anyway. That he was a fanatic by almost any accepted and agreed upon standard is beyond question. Anwars dismisses Zaharie's fanaticism by saying he was 'articulate' and 'relaxed'. That was quite the funny moment. You know, all fanatics are inarticulate and frenzied!

I find a bit unethical and irresponsible this kind of "attack" towards a dead pilot. First of all, there is no evidence AT ALL to connect the captain with the accident cause and secondly even if he played a role in the chain of events, being a fanatic or not may also be totally irelevant.

Logically, a fanatic willing to offer such a drama to the world would have liked to make some kind of a stetement before commiting such a crime and not just diasapear leaving the world looking for clues. Same applies to the hijacking scenario.

Pihero is Airliners.net D'Artagnan for pilots. He may still believe that Egyptair 990 crashed due to some kind of fumes/fire etc etc.

Bottom line from what I have been reading here (and around) is that all scenarios are open: fire, intervention or even some kind of a cover up all over....and realising clown Hussein level of seriousness (he is much worse than many Greek politicians), the fact that possible crash site is alleged to be in "half of the globe" and that we now rely on that little piece of sh*t called Bluefin or something and that Malay primary radar signals are "infrequent" and God knows if that left turn was for real or not, and that a 777 cannot be found in year 2014 in the first place and in a post 9/11 era, I believe most possible scenario for the semi-educated, unprof spectator (as in my case) is that of some kind of a cover up.
 
abba
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 8:30 pm

Quoting giopan1975 (Reply 146):
Pihero is Airliners.net D'Artagnan for pilots. He may still believe that Egyptair 990 crashed due to some kind of fumes/fire etc etc.

'

I don't know what Phero believes about Egyptair 990. However, I do not believe that the plane got the same treatment as the TWA 800 did. However, if TWA 800 was not painstakingly re-assembled - at a cost few countries in the world could ever afford or even do even if they could afford it - we would never have known the real cause of this tragedy and believed that some kind of foul play was behind. To say "the pilot did it" can explain everything imaginable easily. I have yet to find a trustworthy person knowing Egyptian culture well who would interpret the words of the PF in the way that investigators did....
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 9:44 pm

Quoting abba (Reply 145):
How could an atheistic Dawkins inspired man ... kill himself and a plane full of innocents?!?

I'm all for "innocent until proven guilty". However, it's pretty clear--beyond a reasonable doubt IMHO--that someone who knew what they were doing was in charge.

Also, atheists have killed more than their fair share of millions of innocents over the course of human history. The idea that atheists tend to be more moral than everybody else is totally bogus IMO. YMMV.

[Edited 2014-05-23 14:47:37]
 
hivue
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Fri May 23, 2014 9:46 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 143):
Quoting Pihero (Reply 126):So there are billions of possible points on these *loci*.
Technically an infinite number. But if you're talking "777 size" points, maybe hundreds of thousands?

As I have yet to contribute any dubious calculations of my own to this thread I decided this might be my opportunity. The original Inmarsat arcs (north and south) from the last ping appear (from the diagram on the Wikipedia page on the flight, which has a km scale) to be close to 5,000 km in length each. To simplify the calcualtion we can, as a first order approximation, assume the aircraft to have been on a heading such that the satellite's "hypocenter" on the ground (or ocean surface) was directly to its right (southern arc) or left (northern arc). A 777-200ER's length is 63.7 m. Therefore the number of "777 size" points on the arcs is 10,000,000m/63.7m = 156,985.87.

Disclaimer: this calculation suggests or infers nothing at all regarding the captain or his motives or his politics.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.

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