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777Jet
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 2:55 am

Quoting packersfan (Reply 200):
Quoting mandala499 (Reply 197):
I have a friend who is currently going to be a 400 political posts in 4 months on facebook, about a presidential candidate over here... so if he gets elected, and my friend goes on an aircraft which then goes missing, does automatically that make him the ideal fall guy? (he also knows how to break into cockpit through the doors, swift killing with bare hands, and program FMCs)

If all that is true, you as an aircraft accident investigator would immediately put him at the front of your inquiries. Wouldn't you?

Especially if he was the CAPTAIN... There is a massive difference between just going on an aircraft (as hundreds of people do per flight) as a passenger and being one of the pilots or the ONE person who is in command!
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NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 4:29 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 197):
NAV30, We do have positive proof that the satcom of the aircraft was working for up to 7.5hrs... which means the aircraft is either on the ground somewhere, or flying somewhere,

Apparently Bangladesh, and possibly Malaysia, are having doubts about the crash location?

"Two Bangladeshi navy ships have begun searching the Bay of Bengal for traces of missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, but have yet to find anything, the US news network CNN has reported.

"According to CNN, the ships are operating off a tip from Australian company GeoResonance which claims to have found possible traces of an underwater airplane wreck in the area.

"We haven't found anything yet, and the frigates will continue the search until they verify all available information," Commodore Rashed Ali, director of Bangladeshi navy intelligence, told the network on Friday.

"Malaysia’s acting Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein said he was also considering joining the search, despite remaining highly sceptical the missing plane will be found there.

"Mr Hussein said the tip could be confirmed only by sending vessels to the area, which is thousands of kilometres away from the official search area in the southern Indian Ocean.'



Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/mh370-ba...-20140503-zr3wu.html#ixzz32hLupJKS
 
sipadan
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 4:38 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 203):
Apparently Bangladesh, and possibly Malaysia, are having doubts about the crash location?

"Two Bangladeshi navy ships have begun searching the Bay of Bengal for traces of missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, but have yet to find anything, the US news network CNN has reported.

"According to CNN, the ships are operating off a tip from Australian company GeoResonance which claims to have found possible traces of an underwater airplane wreck in the area.

Hey, I think this is yesterdays news. I may be mistaken, but the article you linked was dated May 3rd, and I don't recall anything being mentioned since, accept for GeoResonance being debunked. Again, maybe I've missed something
 
NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 4:47 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 204):
Again, maybe I've missed something

Ships tend to need a lot of provisioning before they 'set sail,' sipadan, and of course they need a lot of specialised equipment as well for this sort of task. No surprise if they haven't gone to sea straight away. Several days will certainly be required.

What's more, the 'radar trace' of MH370 showed that it travelled at least 250 miles north-east after take-off. It will take ships some time to get to the possible location.

[Edited 2014-05-24 21:51:41]
 
sipadan
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 5:08 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 205):
Ships tend to need a lot of provisioning before they 'set sail,' sipadan, and of course they need a lot of specialised equipment as well for this sort of task. No surprise if they haven't gone to sea straight away. Several days will certainly be required.

Yes, true. But it has been 20+ days. I'm just saying that almost all metallurgy experts have summarily dismissed these guys. Actually, all. I haven't heard anyone vouch. But who knows? Stranger things have happened, so the saying goes. And certainly nothing would surprise with MH370. But wouldn't this location have required a westward tun as well? Thought you were of the mind that this may not have happened? Could be way off here. If so, don't beat me senseless, as I catch enough grief on this thread, as you may know. cheers.
 
wstakl
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 5:08 am

Has this plane been found yet?
 
NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 5:22 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 206):
But wouldn't this location have required a westward tun as well?

As far as I recall, sipadan, the 'Geo-whatever' lot first of all suggested a location a lot further west? This one (as far as one can tell) appears to be pretty well dead on track, north-east of KL in the Bay of Bengal. And I'm afraid that I still can't get it out of my mind that the Captain does not appear to have 'signed on' to the next ATC lot after he said goodnight to Kuala Lumpur?

[Edited 2014-05-24 22:27:01]
 
mandala499
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 7:39 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 198):
I do not know any MH crew personally. I would be surprised if any were as politically vocal, involved and outspoken as Zaharie.

There are, if you know them...

Quoting packersfan (Reply 200):
If all that is true, you as an aircraft accident investigator would immediately put him at the front of your inquiries. Wouldn't you?

Put him in front, yes. Putting him in front does not break the presumption of innocence. But saying it has to be him, does...
But to say, "it has to be him"... such as in the following:

Quoting sipadan (Reply 114):
ideal fall guy...sure, the one who ACTUALLY committed the crime is ALWAYS the ideal fall guy. As I said before, the ONLY story here is the one Zaharie intended it to be: Malaysia political criminality and authoritarian governance. This was a cold-blooded sacrifice for the greater good (in his mind).

sorry... no... that goes into presumption of guilt.

Quoting sipadan (Reply 202):
Please show your evidence, or retract this fraudulent assertion

It is in my opinion, racist or racially condescending. I did not make specific reference to you, and therefore, you are not the recipient party of that comment and I do not need to provide evidence, and therefore there is no need for me to retract such a comment under your so-called terms of "fraudulent assertion", because it does not refer to you. For someone to imply the whatever it is, is in my opinion, racist or racially condescending, if you did not, why do you feel that I was referring to you? I didn't refer to you with respect to the quote until the next paragraph on a different matter anyway.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 210):
When the topic of "amuk" was brought up, it was presented as something unique to the Malay culture. All it seems that Mandala is trying to do is to point out that only the "word" is unique - the concept of going postal (for example) is a worldwide phenomenon. If you are trying to make some sort of correlation between the Malaysian captain and amuk - because he's Malaysian - then I think you are entering the realm of sounding racist. IOW, just because he's Malaysian and there is a word called Amuk doesn't mean that he is any more or less guilty or suspect than anyone else - unless you want them to be.

I'm glad someone understands what I mean.

Quoting sipadan (Reply 211):
Amuk IS unique to Malay/Indo culture.

OK, let me reiterate as someone who is indigenous to one of those two cultures and have spent enough years in two other continents... it is not unique to Malay/Indo culture in whatever form except for the word "amuk". An individual amuk, is literally the same as an individual going berserk or going postal, except that here we use the word "amuk". A crowd frenzy amuk, is also the same as in other cultures except that here we also use the word "amuk". Even the subset of amuk called "gelap mata", is not unique to Malay/Indo culture except for the use of the phrase "amuk" and "gelap mata"... it has its manifestations in other cultures.

Just because someone going on postal/berserk has a cultural interpretation does not make it unique to us.
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sipadan
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 7:47 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 212):
OK, let me reiterate as someone who is indigenous to one of those two cultures and have spent enough years in two other continents... it is not unique to Malay/Indo culture in whatever form except for the word "amuk". An individual amuk, is literally the same as an individual going berserk or going postal, except that here we use the word "amuk". A crowd frenzy amuk, is also the same as in other cultures except that here we also use the word "amuk". Even the subset of amuk called "gelap mata", is not unique to Malay/Indo culture except for the use of the phrase "amuk" and "gelap mata"... it has its manifestations in other cultures.

Okay, so you're saying that Amuk has no other attached meaning to it other than going berserk? That is what you just said, is it not? That it has nothing attached to it AT ALL that is specific to Malay/Indo BELIEFS??? Is this you position??

[Edited 2014-05-25 00:47:37]
 
NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 7:47 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 206):
But wouldn't this location have required a westward tun as well?

Not according to the original radar trace, sipadan. Though I'm afraid that I can't find it now.  

My own view is that the aeroplane continued on its north-easterly course - and that the 'apparent turn west' was occasioned by the covering radar reaching its range and phasing out. My guess is that the operators (or the machine itself) then picked up some military radar - which was tracking a different aeroplane (flying faster and lower) and added that to the recorded track instead. There have been plenty of reports that the speeds and altitudes shown by the later traces were highly suspect?

Remains to be 'seen' what actually happened to MH370. My current opinion is that it probably 'went in,' for some reason, just after the captain signed off from KL? I find any suggestion that it somehow turned west, and then south, and flew on for about seven more hours (maintaining 'radio silence' and all the rest of it) utterly implausible?
 
mandala499
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 8:00 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 213):
That is what you just said, is it not? That it has nothing attached to it AT ALL that is specific to Malay/Indo BELIEFS?

The general act of amuk, is not attached to culture or beliefs.
The specific trigger points, differ from culture to culture, because it's a cultural issue.
You can make a person go berserk/amuk/bonkers/postal in different cultures if you press the right buttons.
These so called cultural triggers into such actions, were first (amongst the first) identified in observations of amuk in Malay/Indo culture, and has since been observed in various different forms/names/manifestations in other cultures.

To say that Amuk is the malay/indo version of going bersek/postal, is, correct... and vice-versa.
We do have a different word for general anger, and that amuk is a different word, and it usually translates to berserk.
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
sipadan
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 8:05 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 214):
Remains to be 'seen' what actually happened to MH370. My current opinion is that it probably 'went in,' for some reason, just after the captain signed off from KL? I find any suggestion that it somehow turned west, and then south, and flew on for about seven more hours (maintaining 'radio silence' and all the rest of it) utterly implausible?

Yeah, I mean everything's still on the table. I agree with 'utterly implausible' part of your comment wholeheartedly, aside from if it was intentional AND perfectly executed (to have no detection from passengers cells, for example). As far as the read back goes, it was half-completed. Some on here will say "because you don't understand SOP in the flight deck blah blah blah", but it's fairly obvious that whatever happened, happened right at this moment. So, either the half completed read back was intentional, OR, was because as you say, 'something' happened. I don't think it was just being a little lax at the helm.
 
NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 8:13 am

"(in phrase run amok)

Behave uncontrollably and disruptively:

‘stone-throwing anarchists were running amok’"

http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/amok

The same word, with virtually the same spelling, is commonly used in English as well, with exactly the same meaning.

On the evidence of the thread and the link, the word appears to have originated in Portugal and later in Malaysia. That may or may not be, but the word is completely 'international' now, and is used everywhere?

[Edited 2014-05-25 01:17:57]
 
David L
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 8:25 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 209):
This one (as far as one can tell) appears to be pretty well dead on track, north-east of KL in the Bay of Bengal

The Bay of Bengal is northwest of KL.

This was discussed here a couple of weeks ago. There's a lot of scepticism about the methods they claim to have used. I don't think anyone's holding their breath.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 209):
And I'm afraid that I still can't get it out of my mind that the Captain does not appear to have 'signed on' to the next ATC lot after he said goodnight to Kuala Lumpur?

I don't know why you keep repeating this. Do you think something untoward happened around the time of the handover? Welcome to week two of the discussion.
 
sipadan
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 8:26 am

Okay, here is final word on the topic. Yes, I believe Zaharie had/went amok (not beramok). That this was a vendetta, with the side benefit of reform. If you want me to say he went berserk, he went berserk. Postal, he went postal. So what was all this about again??
 
Pihero
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 10:28 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 199):
this same person posted in an earlier thread about a chat he had at dinner with some friends. So, if it is not double standards to poke fun at a conversation I had with some professionals in the industry during a flight whilst expecting others to take seriously the content of a conversation he had with his mates at dinner then I don't know what double standards is (maybe it is gold fish memory syndrome???).

The big difference between my discussion with engineers anbd pilots and your nice exchange with some FA's is that we talked about very precise subjects, technically and on procedures, with my computations on the table, along with references from FCOMs, while yours was - as you called it - a *chat*, of the sort I could have with the post lady and the baker's wife.
What does your conversation prove ?
What does it bring to thisd thread ?
- an o_pi_nion, based on thin air and prejudices.

Quoting dfambro (Reply 196):
Not impossible, if the you consider the plane leaving the flight envelope. It could ascend somewhat above REC MAX by going through it at max climb and trading speed for altitude. I'm not sure quantitatively how much higher it could go, though. Any ideas on that?
Of course the plane would go into a high altitude stall, from which is would be very hard to recover. If it did recover, it would have lost a great amount of altitude ...

So, by your own saying, the *above forty thousand feet cruise* is an impossibility. Right ?
QED...
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777Jet
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 10:39 am

Quoting Pihero (Reply 220):
What does your conversation prove ?
What does it bring to thisd thread ?

Answer the same questions of your own conversation.

But since you asked. Somebody threads ago said that it is not respectful to blame the crew as flight crews would take offense to such remarks. All my chat did was prove to me, which I thought was worth sharing, is that that line of thinking is incorrect as some FAs who are also responsible for the safe inflight operation of an aircraft don't have a problem with pointing the finger at a pilot who is, in a sense, part of the same team... I think you get the idea. If it was disrespectful to point the finger at a pilot then why would FAs have no problem with making that kind of suggestion?

Quoting Pihero (Reply 220):
- an o_pi_nion, based on thin air and prejudices.

Nothing. The same as your conversation, no?

The plane still hasn't been found...

[Edited 2014-05-25 03:50:03]
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777Jet
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 10:43 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 210):
Quoting 777Jet (Reply 199):
One of the male FAs was an AVgeek, like many of us.

So in other words, an armchair CEO/Mechanic/Pilot/ATC professional who thinks he has the answers to everything, if only others would listen.

Sounds exactly like many in here!
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MD11Engineer
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 10:44 am

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 44):
Commercial Aircraft with HF SSB radios flying across oceans use Aeronautical mobile HF sub-bands in the range 2850 to 15100kHz. Lost of choices but anybody can listen in with the right gear.

The aircraft HF radios are not restricted to the aviation bands, but can tune into the whole HF band from 3 to 30 MHz.
I have used aircraft radios, when there was nothing going on at work, to have amateur radio QSOs, using my amateur radio licence and callsign.
The only disadvantage with modern HF aircraft radios is that they only use the upper sideband in SSB and don't have lower sideband and AM functions anymore. They are also automated and don't have the manual filters and finw tuning options common on amateur radios, which allow for selective detection of obscure signals.

Jan
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Kaiarahi
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 10:50 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 219):
Okay, here is final word on the topic.

  

Quoting sipadan (Reply 219):
I believe Zaharie had/went amok (not beramok). That this was a vendetta,

So he was Italian, as well as Malay ...?
Vendetta (Italian, from Latin vindicta) means a prolonged series of retaliatory, vengeful or hostile acts. Perhaps there's a different definition in DSM V, although for a self-professed psychiatrist you seem woefully uninformed.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 10:59 am

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 224):
Vendetta (Italian, from Latin vindicta) means a prolonged series of retaliatory, vengeful or hostile acts.

I did not see anything in that definition that said that only Italians could have a vendetta? If so, there must be a lot of Italians on this site  
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Kaiarahi
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 11:07 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 222):
Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 210):
Quoting 777Jet (Reply 199):
One of the male FAs was an AVgeek, like many of us.

So in other words, an armchair CEO/Mechanic/Pilot/ATC professional who thinks he has the answers to everything, if only others would listen.

Sounds exactly like many in here!

Indeed!

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 221):
All my chat did was prove to me, which I thought was worth sharing, is that that line of thinking is incorrect as some FAs who are also responsible for the safe inflight operation of an aircraft don't have a problem with pointing the finger at a pilot who is, in a sense, part of the same team...

Right. Same as asking a Cambridge university gardener about the quantum theory of gravity because he's part of the same team as Hawking.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
lancelot07
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 11:07 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 221):
Nothing. The same as your conversation, no?

The plane still hasn't been found...

There is a difference between science and superstition, even though both have not delivered the wreck until now.
Superstition may deliver, but my bet is on science.
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 11:11 am

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 227):
superstition

I can't find a definition of the word 'opinion' in which superstition is linked or part of the definition. Perhaps you could provide one?
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YoungMans
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 11:25 am

In German it is 'Amok';
in English it is 'Amok';
in the Malaysian language it is 'Amuk' ...;

...it's different names (or not) for the same thing all over the world.

What is there so difficult to understand that we have to go on and on about it?
 
lancelot07
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 11:37 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 228):
I can't find a definition of the word 'opinion' in which superstition is linked or part of the definition. Perhaps you could provide one?

I can provide a definition for superstition: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superstition
Superstition is the belief in supernatural causality—that one event leads to the cause of another without any natural process linking the two events—such as astrology, religion, omens, witchcraft, prophecies, etc., that contradicts natural science.
 
YoungMans
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 12:10 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 220):
What does your conversation prove ?
What does it bring to thisd thread ?

It "proves" nothing, absolutely nothing..!!
What it does, though, it reminds us that there is also a totally different aspect to all this.

In search of proof, that elusive hard evidence, it is good, proper and the right thing to do testing the various theories that people come up with (especially on these threads), whether they 'have legs'.
That's one thing ....

But there is also a totally different aspect; and that is the concerns and thoughts of the travelling public.
What goes on in the mind of a person, while they fasten the seat belt, when just hours earlier it was on the TV-news (yet again) that they still can't find MH370. How do those passengers feel?

My thoughts on this is that a profound incident like this needs some kind of healing process and part of that is exactly that type of 'discussion', simply talk about it.
Whether that is by cabin crews, people around the smoko table or in the office, anyone, anywhere; it doesn't matter. Things happen, people talk about it. What it does, with a bit of luck, people can get it off their chest.

In that sense it is very interesting to hear (or read) what others have to say and think about all this.

I'm sure that virtually none of those people will have any illusions about proof or providing a meaningful contribution.
But they will have their feelings validated and that eases the heartache.
 
mandala499
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 12:31 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 217):
On the evidence of the thread and the link, the word appears to have originated in Portugal and later in Malaysia. That may or may not be, but the word is completely 'international' now, and is used everywhere?

Errr.. originated in Portugal and later in Malaysia? Mate, sorry... read what was written on that link:
mid 17th century: via Portuguese amouco, from Malay amok 'rushing in a frenzy'. Early use was as a noun denoting a Malay in a homicidal frenzy.
Via Portuguese from Malay.... let me change the order to make you understand better without changing the meaning, from Malay "amok" it was used by the Portuguese in the 17th century as "amouco", and ended up in English (and German too perhaps) as "amok"
.

Quoting sipadan (Reply 219):
Okay, here is final word on the topic.

What??? Final??? But NAV30 just joined the "amok" subject!   

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 224):
So he was Italian, as well as Malay ...?

Or Portuguese with Amouco? Or was it German too? or? What the heck is this? the UN language council?

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 221):
All my chat did was prove to me, which I thought was worth sharing, is that that line of thinking is incorrect as some FAs who are also responsible for the safe inflight operation of an aircraft don't have a problem with pointing the finger at a pilot who is, in a sense, part of the same team.

We are not under the illusion that pilots and FAs don't incriminate one and another... and those who are familiar with multi-racial multi-ethnic multi-national crew environment would know the vendettas, backstabbing, etc that goes on behind the scenes. You can go to that "Professional Pilots Slagfest Forum" and just see how bad it is... But, for the purposes of an accident, we, as professionals, do not see pointing blame as appropriate... unless we want to bring A.net forums down to the "professional pilots slagfest forum"...
Crew chit chat is vicious! Never underestimate the levels crew would go down to when they have an agenda... (and that's why Pihero has a habit of questioning people's agendas in this place... he probably has seen it too often).
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
Backseater
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 12:42 pm

Seems to me that the only thing that is really running amuck is this thread's discussion on "amok".   
 
NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 1:03 pm

Quoting David L (Reply 218):
Quoting NAV30 (Reply 209):And I'm afraid that I still can't get it out of my mind that the Captain does not appear to have 'signed on' to the next ATC lot after he said goodnight to Kuala Lumpur?
I don't know why you keep repeating this. Do you think something untoward happened around the time of the handover?

In a word, yes, DavidL.

I thought for a while that the lack of evidence about MH370 checking in with Ho Chi Min ATC was just a matter of the frequency change. But this article appears to confirm that they never DID check in?

"The report, dated April 9 but made public today, confirms MH370 departed Kuala Lumpur International Airport at 00:41:43 local time March 8 en route to Beijing.

"At 01:19:24, Kuala Lumpur control handed MH370 off to controllers in Ho Chi Minh, and somebody on MH370’s flight deck acknowledged the request. The last confirmed radar return from the Boeing 777 came at 01:21:13, but the flight never checked in with controllers in Ho Chi Minh. Contact with the flight was never re-established.

"At 01:38, Vietnamese controllers contacted their counterparts in Kuala Lumpur, asking where MH370 was.

"After about a half hour of attempting to locate the flight, Kuala Lumpur controllers at 02:15 contacted the airline’s operations center, which determined that it could “exchange signals with the flight” and that it was in Cambodian airspace. But Cambodian controllers reported having neither any contact with nor information on MH370, and Ho Chi Minh controllers confirmed that MH370’s flight plan did not include Cambodian airspace.

"The ops center reported the flight in “normal condition” as late as 02:35. Within the next hour, however, the ops center acknowledged that flight-tracking information “was based on flight projection and not reliable for aircraft positioning,” according to a document released with the report.

"Over the next several hours, controllers and the ops center tried to reach MH370, turning at one point to another Malaysia Airlines flight for help contacting the missing aircraft.

"After nearly four hours of fruitless efforts to find MH370, officials activated an emergency response effort at 05:30."


http://aviationweek.com/commercial-a...fusion-hours-after-flight-was-lost

So one can say with some confidence that the 'accident' - and/or the mystery - just about started the moment after the Captain said goodnight to Kuala Lumpur?

[Edited 2014-05-25 06:12:28]
 
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cougar15
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 1:08 pm

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 233):
Seems to me that the only thing that is really running amuck is this thread's discussion on "amok".

I will certainly second that! Guess in light of not getting anything definetly new at all for weeks, , we are filling these threads with trivial discussions and Little personal wars. I guess it is down to the nature of the Event, as I recall it has been a good 50 years since a Commercial A/C was missing without a trace for this Long.
Gentlemen, Schollars & Esquires, may we get back to the discussion at Hand, rather than drift into boaring discussions not worthy of an aviation professional Website?
some you lose, others you can´t win!
 
mandala499
Posts: 6589
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 1:21 pm

Quoting cougar15 (Reply 235):
I guess it is down to the nature of the Event, as I recall it has been a good 50 years since a Commercial A/C was missing without a trace for this Long.

Bingo!
What is going on here is not as bad as some other places...
I think the discussions that can still be developed are:
1. Pihero's smoke/mishap theory.
2. WP's where it could end up theory vs where they are searching
3. It's hiding somewhere theory (ridiculous, but yes, this can still be developed if you believe in conspiracies), but there are limits to where this could be...
4. Hybrid between any of the two above (which I think is more likely).
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
David L
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 1:26 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 234):
So one can say with some confidence that the 'accident' - and/or the mystery - just about started the moment after the Captain said goodnight to Kuala Lumpur?

Or shortly before that. But we've known that since about the second week.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 1:29 pm

Quoting cougar15 (Reply 235):
I guess it is down to the nature of the Event, as I recall it has been a good 50 years since a Commercial A/C was missing without a trace for this Long.
Quoting mandala499 (Reply 236):
Bingo!

Sorry for the correction folks, but Varig 967 was 35 years ago and is still missing. It will be a while yet til that record is beaten. And that is only regarding large airliners - if you want to consider all commercial traffic, I'm sure there are many lost planes out there.

There is also that 727 from 2003, but it was stolen and wasn't on a revenue flight, so I suppose that doesn't count. An AN-72 disappeared in 1997, a pax flight Twin Otter in '95...

[Edited 2014-05-25 06:34:03]
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 1:32 pm

Quoting David L (Reply 237):
But we've known that since about the second week.

Except - on the basis of 'zero' information, how did the investigators manage to come up with all this 'turn north-west, turn south-west, turn south' stuff?
 
abba
Posts: 1385
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 1:46 pm

[

Quoting sipadan (Reply 213):
Okay, so you're saying that Amuk has no other attached meaning to it other than going berserk? That is what you just said, is it not? That it has nothing attached to it AT ALL that is specific to Malay/Indo BELIEFS??? Is this you position??
Quoting mandala499 (Reply 212):
Just because someone going on postal/berserk has a cultural interpretation does not make it unique to us.
Quoting sipadan (Reply 213):
Okay, so you're saying that Amuk has no other attached meaning to it other than going berserk? That is what you just said, is it not? That it has nothing attached to it AT ALL that is specific to Malay/Indo BELIEFS??? Is this you position??

Not only his (and mine) but also some rather well informed people who have studied the subject thoroughly:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC181064/
 
mandala499
Posts: 6589
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 1:52 pm

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 238):
Sorry for the correction folks, but Varig 967 was 35 years ago and is still missing. It will be a while yet til that record is beaten. And that is only regarding large airliners - if you want to consider all commercial traffic, I'm sure there are many lost planes out there.

Well if we take passenger flights... MH370 is the latest and biggest one...
Twin Otter PK-NUK went in a region that was hard to find anything and crashes weren't rare either...

After MH370, the next highest number of missing on board was... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flying_Tiger_Line_Flight_739
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
David L
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 2:08 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 239):
Except - on the basis of 'zero' information, how did the investigators manage to come up with all this 'turn north-west, turn south-west, turn south' stuff?

You keep jumping around all over the place. Within hours we knew that MH370 had gone missing and that it had reached the vicinity of IGARI, apparently as expected. After a week or so we found out that they'd signed off from Malaysia/Singapore control but had not contacted Vietnamese control. Would you need to know about the turn to the west before you realised that something out of the ordinary had occurred?
 
NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 2:11 pm

Quoting David L (Reply 242):
Would you need to know about the turn to the west before you realised that something out of the ordinary had occurred?

None of us can 'have it both ways,' DavidL. If none of the ATC guys knew where the aeroplane was, no-one ELSE can know where it went?
 
David L
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 2:15 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 243):
None of us can 'have it both ways,' DavidL. If none of the ATC guys knew where the aeroplane was, no-one ELSE can know where it went?

Who said they knew where the aircraft was at that time?
 
jetsetter1969
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 2:39 pm

Just a thought but after watching the abc 4 corners report on mh 370 it would seem contrary that the person/s flying or at least calling the shots, fly over or at least close to a military radar site after timing isolating the transponder and acars in a grey area between international atc areas. Kind of like breaking into a house by quietly picking a lock then turning the lights on once you're inside.

If the wreckage is found does the CVR record over itself every few hours or have days of recording given the assumed timeframe between the loss of signal by ATC and the calculated depletion of fuel reserves?

Can the power supply to FDR and CVR be isolated deliberately?

Would it be feasible to fit a GPS tracking device with uninterupted power supply to all civil aircraft so they can be tracked if such an incident occurred again?

Oh and in the 4 corners report it shows TCAS being turned off when describing turning of the transponder as far as it looks to me

Cheers
Dave
 
EricR
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 3:19 pm

Quoting jetsetter1969 (Reply 244):

Just a thought but after watching the abc 4 corners report on mh 370 it would seem contrary that the person/s flying or at least calling the shots, fly over or at least close to a military radar site after timing isolating the transponder and acars in a grey area between international atc areas.

It is easy to come to this conclusion in hindsight. However, what makes you assume the individual who flew the plane knew exactly where each military radar site was?

This is the problem when people try to reconstruct something that happened in the past. It is easy looking back after an event happened and rule out, or question, actions based on what appears logical today. However, you need to put yourself in the exact place, time, and information available at the time the event took place.
 
abba
Posts: 1385
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 3:21 pm

Quoting EricR (Reply 243):
However, you need to put yourself in the exact place, time, and information available at the time the event took place.

   Which is a very difficult exercise indeed!
 
jetsetter1969
Posts: 71
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 3:51 pm

Quoting EricR (Reply 243):
However, you need to put yourself in the exact place, time, and information available at the time the event took place.

I agree with you Eric and my point being if someone deliberately planned that action, at that time and that route. Then yes my assumption would be it would be foolish not to take military radar into account especially as the base locarions are not a secret. it would seem to negate the time and effort to plan the other facets of the task. Alternatively was it a calculated risk?

Having said the above we also assume it was a deliberate planned action not a response to an unplanned inflight event.

Cheers
Dave
 
mandala499
Posts: 6589
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 4:12 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 236):
Except - on the basis of 'zero' information, how did the investigators manage to come up with all this 'turn north-west, turn south-west, turn south' stuff?

OK, for your sake, let's recap over 60 threads on this topic:
1. They knew the aircraft made it as far as IGARI. Independent ADS-B data also covered that.
2. They knew the aircraft went past IGARI. Independent ADS-B data also covered that.
3. They knew the aircraft went missing not long after IGARI after its transponders went off.
4. They picked up on primary radar (which does not need a working transponder on the aircraft), which they suspect was MH370 making a turn towards Malaysia.
5. They put together all possible primary radar detection they had on what could have been that aircraft.
6. That aircraft they suspected was MH370 was tracked going back towards Kota Bharu, then to Penang area, before turning north west, to the limit of the primary radar coverage.
7. They did not immediately confirm the phantom aircraft as MH370, search continues to the north east of IGARI.
8. Inmarsat then revealed the aircraft was flying until over 8am, based on the satellite pings to the aircraft's satcom antenna.
9. Based on the pings going through which satellite, it was easy to confirm that the aircraft did not continue north east (it would have been handed off to another Inmarsat-3 satellite).
10. Once the pings were revealed to the authorities by Inmarsat, the Malaysian government put the information together with the phantom aircraft that went west that they suspected was MH370, and concluded that it was indeed MH370.
11. The Ping Data initially did not reveal that it ended up northwest or southwest or south, it only revealed that it ended up somewhere along a radius circle, which when you combine it with the aircraft's endurance circle out of what was then known of the aircraft, showed it went as far north west as Azerbaijan OR it went somewhere in the Indian Ocean. Up to this point, only the turn back over Malaysia then turn northwest can be ascertained.
12. The Ping Data records were then linked to records of the satellite transmissions, to which they got the frequencies which the satellite received from the aircraft, these are somewhere near the expected receiving frequency (pre-allocated upon initial contact, and adjusted by the aircraft so that the satellite doesn't receive out of frequency transmissions due to the aircraft's movements). The aircraft compensates the doppler effect of the aircraft's movement to a fixed satellite position, but the satellite itself is not stationary and has it's own little wobble orbit along it's allocated geo-stationary orbital slot.
13. Based on the wobble, they now have a method to discriminate whether the aircraft was south or north of the equator, by comparing the satelite's receiving frequency offset which cannot be adjusted by the aircraft antenna, with other aircraft communicating with that satellite along the same / similar times, and with the predicted models, from there, they concluded that the MH370 was south of the equator when the last satellite ping was made.
14. The last civilian radar plot shows the aircraft north east of Malaysia going east, then the military radar followed this aircraft over Malaysia towards Penang area which then turned north west, until it disappeared... and with the satellite communications data, it is indicated that it ended up quite far south. So therefore, put all of them together, you get the 'turn north-west, turn south-west, turn south' stuff.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 240):
None of us can 'have it both ways,' DavidL. If none of the ATC guys knew where the aeroplane was, no-one ELSE can know where it went?

1. The aircraft disappearing from secondary radar = something's wrong. You don't need to know where it went to conclude something was wrong (as per David's post).
2. ATC in Vietnam didn't establish contact with the aircraft as per the normal flow, they checked with Malaysian ATC to see whether or not it was handed off or whether it returned... the Vietnamese ATC, suspected something was wrong. Malaysian ATC's answer, confirmed that something was wrong. No need to know where the aircraft went to see something was wrong.
3. The military saw something but they did not know it was MH370, so no one for sure knew where MH370 went after it disappeared from civilian radar that night, and not until sometime later after they looked at all the plots and then got the satcom ping info that they can conclude 'with enough confidence' (so to speak) that what the military saw on radar was MH370.
This is not "having it both ways"... And no, a 777 isn't a stealth fighter either... so if it disappears from civilian secondary radar, and is within military primary radar coverage, someone watching the primary radar can still see the aircraft.

Quoting jetsetter1969 (Reply 242):
Would it be feasible to fit a GPS tracking device with uninterupted power supply to all civil aircraft so they can be tracked if such an incident occurred again?

We've been through this a lot in the past threads on this topic.
GPS tracking with position transmission through satcom does exist.
If you want to make it not able to be switched off, sorry... ain't gonna happen. You need to be able to switch it off in one way or another. However, you can, like satcom, make it a stable system where the circuit breaker does not have to be in the cockpit, making it impractical for you to switch it off quickly and discreetly if you want to steal an aircraft with a couple of hundred passengers.
If you insist it must not be able to be switched off, sorry, I need to show you the door...
We don't change aviation safety by knee-jerk reactions.
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
markak
Posts: 43
Joined: Thu Mar 20, 2014 1:14 am

RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 4:12 pm

If someone wanted the A/C to disappear, why turn back over areas with radar, why not just fly out to the Pacific ? And what is the point of making an A/C disappear. Its ambiguous at best as a political statement.

If someone wanted to make a political statement, why not fly into the towers or into the court house building? Now that would be a political statement! Where was the court house in relation to the flight track?

So perhaps the intention was to make a political statement but there was an epic battle onboard that ended in a draw with both sides incapacitated.

Or perhaps the turn back was due to a mechanical problem that left all incapacitated.

I just can't see any point to the track that is the prevalent theory. Why would anyone want that regardless of their intentions being good or bad.

Or perhaps something completely different happened and "the authorities" don't want it made public and all the data we are analyzing has been fabricated. In which case we have no clue whatsoever. It still bothers me that the raw ping ring data is going to be in units of RTD in time but is published as angles of elevation. If you are going to bother to convert it, it makes more sense to convert time to distance.

Those are my musings.
 
EricR
Posts: 1226
Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2010 4:15 pm

RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 4:19 pm

Quoting MarkAK (Reply 247):

If someone wanted the A/C to disappear, why turn back over areas with radar, why not just fly out to the Pacific ?.

Well, the first thing that comes to mind is that by flying it toward the west, it keeps the plane under the cover of darkness. If they flew toward the Pacific, the rising sun would wake up passengers and expose it to any nearby witnesses on boats or nearby islands or other planes.
 
WarrenPlatts
Posts: 517
Joined: Wed Mar 26, 2014 6:03 pm

RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 4:29 pm

Quote:
Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 182):
"We should adopt as our working hypothesis that the aircraft was flown in a deliberate manner"

Quoting Mandala: Well, that's fine, but that does not mean "he must be going to D200J", "there's no other way", etc.. those kinds of statement disqualify the "working hypothesis" and turn it into agenda and shoving it down our throats.

Nobody's shoving anything down anyone's throats.A I am not married to the idea that D200J was THE waypoing programmed into the FMC. There is also D155J, and another obscure waypoing, KENDI, that is nearby. Alternatively, the pilot could have entered manually a lat/long, or the pilot could have been using southern coast of Penang as a mental waypoint while he/she/it was flying manually.

I dunno, you tell me: if you carefully project the radar track backwards, it appears to cut to about 3 to 3.5 nm to the north of KENDI and D200J:

http://i.imgur.com/4TTBlJH.png

Now, as I understand it, when making a turn at a waypoint, unless the turn is very sharp, the aircraft will automatically cut the corner somewhat, and fly to the north of it (in this case). The question is whether 3.5 nm is too much? That is, for the sake of the argument, assume that the following route was programmed into the FMC: VKB D200J VAMPI. Just how far to the north of D200J is it reasonable to expect the track to cut that corner?

As to "there's no other way", there is an exception: that ISBIX MUTMI RUNUT corridor. IF one is flying at more or less cruising speed, and IF one is navigating via waypoints, to be consistent with the 19:40 and 20:40 LOPs, you are pretty much forced to use ISBIX MUTMI RUNUT.

How you get to ISBIX is debatable: maybe it went via BEDAX or turned at POVUS as you suggested, or it's also possible that there was only one turn at NILAM that was direct to ISBIX, perhaps using ANSAX or AKIDA as intermediate waypoints.

What happens after RUNUT is also debatable:

http://i.imgur.com/HgCcHmn.png

I favor a continuation of the 189T track--you guys, however, seem to think that it is psychologically impossible for a pilot to fly a true course. So who knows?

Also, I must say that of the LOPs I obtained from the Hussein charts, the last two throw a bit of a monkey wrench into the works as it apparently is ~35 nm in from the old LOP, that would seemingly require to the a/c to slow down somewhat or steer even more to the west, as if steering for that Argentinian waypoint, or maybe even RERAB if he opened the throttle wide open and there was enough fuel. If the former, it could be that the headwinds from the "Roaring Forties" were stiffer than the earth.nullschool.net would seem to indicate.



[Edited 2014-05-25 09:34:53]
 
EricR
Posts: 1226
Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2010 4:15 pm

RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 4:41 pm

Quoting MarkAK (Reply 247):

And what is the point of making an A/C disappear. Its ambiguous at best as a political statement. If someone wanted to make a political statement, why not fly into the towers or into the court house building? Now that would be a political statement! Where was the court house in relation to the flight track?

Hard to say, but one possible explanation is that who ever took over control of the plane did not have any issues against the country of Malaysia itself.

The objective may not necessarily have been to make the plane disappear, but perhaps flown to a remote area to ensure the fate of the plane in case the passengers noticed something was askew during the last few hours of the flight and attempted to gain access to the cockpit.

In other words, had the passengers discovered what was going on during the last few hours of the flight and successfully gained access to the cockpit, the plane's remote location would have sealed its fate due to the limited amount of fuel left on the plane and no viable location to land nearby.

[Edited 2014-05-25 09:46:27]
 
lancelot07
Posts: 1084
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:22 pm

RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 63

Sun May 25, 2014 5:05 pm

Quoting EricR (Reply 248):
Well, the first thing that comes to mind is that by flying it toward the west, it keeps the plane under the cover of darkness

Yes, but then it did not fly so far to the west. In fact, the search area seem to be EAST of KUL.

Quoting MarkAK (Reply 247):
If someone wanted to make a political statement, why not fly into the towers or into the court house building? Now that would be a political statement! Where was the court house in relation to the flight track?

Would you choose a flight in the middle of the night to make a political statement ? The towers and the courthouse would be empty. Not the statement one could have for the same price, imho. Did the plan for a political statement exist ?  
Quoting jetsetter1969 (Reply 242):
Just a thought but after watching the abc 4 corners report on mh 370 it would seem contrary that the person/s flying or at least calling the shots, fly over or at least close to a military radar site after timing isolating the transponder and acars in a grey area between international atc areas. Kind of like breaking into a house by quietly picking a lock then turning the lights on once you're inside.

Another good thought! The alleged intricate plan to avoid radar was a failure. Natural question: Did such a plan exist ?  

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