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enilria
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OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 11:43 am

FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares what is for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

9K ACK-BOS JUL 18>15 AUG 18>15 SEP 12>11

AC LAX-YVR JUN 2>4 JUL 2>4 AUG 2>4 SEP 2>4 OCT 3>4
AC LAX-YYC JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.2>2

AM MCO-MEX JUL 2>3 AUG 1.9>3
Charter?
*AM RIC-CUN JUN 0>0.2 JUL 0>0.1
AM SAT-MEX AUG 1.8>2

AS ANC-LAX NOV 1.0>0.6
AS LAX-GDL DEC 1.5>1.0 JAN 1.1>1.0
AS LAX-MEX DEC 1.5>1.0 JAN 1.1>1.0
AS LAX-MZT JAN 0.8>0.7
AS MMH-SAN JAN 1.0>0.6
AS PDX-BOI NOV 6>7 DEC 6>7 JAN 6>7
AS PDX-BOS JAN 1.0>0.7
AS PDX-SJC NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4 JAN 5>4
AS SEA-BZN NOV 2>3 DEC 2>3 JAN 2>3
AS SEA-FCA DEC 2>3 JAN 2>3
AS SEA-LAS NOV 8>9
AS SEA-LAX NOV 10>11 DEC 10>12
AS SEA-SAN NOV 7>6
AS SEA-YYC NOV 3>4 DEC 3>4 JAN 3>4
AS SFO-PVR DEC 0.8>1.0
AS SJC-GDL NOV 1.0>0.7

B6 BDL-SJU SEP 0.7>1.0
B6 BOS-AUA SEP 0.6>0.7 OCT 1.0>1.1
B6 BOS-BDA SEP 0.9>1.0
B6 BOS-ORD SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3
B6 FLL-MBJ SEP 1.0>0.7 OCT 1.0>0.8
B6 FLL-PAP SEP 2>1.7 OCT 1.9>1.7
B6 FLL-PUJ SEP 1.0>0.7 OCT 1.0>0.8
B6 JFK-BGI SEP 1.0>1.2
B6 JFK-CUN SEP 1.3>1.5
B6 JFK-KIN SEP 1.0>1.2
B6 JFK-LIR SEP 0.6>0.2 OCT 0.5>0.2
B6 JFK-MBJ SEP 1.1>1.2
B6 JFK-PLS SEP 0.3>0.6 OCT 0.4>0.6
B6 JFK-PUJ SEP 1.5>1.6 OCT 1.8>2
B6 JFK-SDQ SEP 5>6
B6 JFK-SXM OCT 0.7>1.0
B6 MCO-BQN OCT 1.0>0.8
B6 MCO-CUN OCT 1.0>1.6
B6 MCO-PSE OCT 0.8>1.0
B6 MCO-SJU OCT 5>6

SEA effect on ANC-MSP
*DL ANC-MSP DEC 2>1.4 JAN 2>1.1
DL ATL-BWI SEP 12>11
DL ATL-GUA DEC 3>1.5
DL ATL-IND SEP 9>8
DL ATL-LAS OCT 8>9
DL ATL-LIR JAN 2.0>1.4
*DL ATL-LNK SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0
*DL ATL-RST SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0
DL ATL-RSW SEP 7>6
DL ATL-SJD JAN 2>1.3
DL ATL-SJU JAN 5>6
DL ATL-SRQ SEP 6>5
DL ATL-TPA SEP 15>14
DL ATL-TRI SEP 6>5
DL ATL-TYS NOV 8>7 DEC 8>7 JAN 9>7
DL BOI-MSP OCT 2>3
DL BOS-ATL SEP 12>11
DL BOS-LAS JAN 0.5>0.1
DL BUF-MSP SEP 1.7>1.0
DL CVG-JAX JUL 0.8>0.5
DL CVG-SEA JAN 0.6>0.1
DL DCA-MSP SEP 6>5
*DL DTW-AVL NOV 0.8>0
DL DTW-ORF DEC 6>4 JAN 5>4
DL DTW-PWM JAN 3>1.9
*DL DTW-RST SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0
DL DTW-SRQ JAN 0.7>0.3
DL FNT-MSP JAN 3>2.0
DL HNL-NRT JUL 2>1.8
DL JFK-PDX SEP 1.7>1.1
DL JFK-SAN JAN 1.7>1.2
DL JFK-STI DEC 4>5
*DL JFK-STL JAN 0.1>1.0
DL LAS-RDU JAN 0.5>0.1
DL LAX-CUN JAN 2>1.4
DL LAX-GDL JAN 2.0>1.3
DL LAX-PVR DEC 1.0>1.3 JAN 1.0>1.4
DL LGA-SAV JAN 3>1.9
DL LGA-SRQ JAN 2>1.1
DL MCO-RDU SEP 3>2
DL MEM-AUS JAN 0.8>0.1
2 RTs on a route that short generally don't work well for connectivity.
**DL MSP-RST SEP 5>3 OCT 5>2 NOV 5>2 DEC 5>2 JAN 4>2
This is interesting. Why would they do cuts so close in? Bookings I presume, but hard to believe JUL is weak.
*DL SEA-HKG JUL 1.0>0.8
*DL SEA-PVG JUL 1.0>0.8
DL SLC-CNY JAN 0.3>1.7
DL SLC-DFW SEP 5>4
DL SLC-MCO JAN 1.9>3
DL SLC-MSP JAN 6>5
DL SLC-PIH JAN 3>4
DL SLC-TWF JAN 4>2
DL SLC-VEL JAN 0.2>1.7

*F9 ATL-IAD SEP 0>0.8 OCT 0>0.9 NOV 0>0.9
*F9 CLT-IAD OCT 0>0.7
F9 DEN-LGA OCT 1.0>1.7
*F9 DTW-IAD OCT 0>0.8 NOV 0>0.8
*F9 IAD-MCO SEP 0>0.9 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>0.9
*F9 IAD-MSP SEP 0>0.8 OCT 0>0.8 NOV 0>0.8
*F9 IAD-ORD OCT 0>0.9 NOV 0>0.7
*F9 IAD-UST OCT 0>0.7

LH BOS-MUC JAN 1.0>0.8
LH CLT-MUC JAN 1.0>0.8
LH IAD-MUC NOV 0.9>0.6 DEC 0.7>0.5
LH JFK-MUC JAN 1.0>0.8
LH LAX-MUC NOV 0.9>0.6 DEC 0.7>0.5 JAN 0.9>0.7

*MW LNY-OGG JUL 0>2 AUG 0>2 SEP 0>2 OCT 0>2 NOV 0>2 DEC 0>2 JAN 0>2

NZ LAX-AKL NOV 2>3

OB MIA-PTY JUN 0>0.5 JUL 0>0.5 AUG 0>0.6 SEP 0>0.6 OCT 0>0.6 NOV 0>0.6 DEC 0>0.6 JAN 0>0.5

PS JFK-KBP NOV 0.7>0.6 DEC 0.7>0.6 JAN 0.7>0.5

*QF DFW-BNE OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0
*QF DFW-SYD OCT 0>0.9 NOV 0>0.9 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0

Schedule extended
SY DCA-LAN SEP 0.1>0.9 OCT 0>0.9 NOV 0>0.8
SY DCA-MSP SEP 0.1>0.9 OCT 0>0.9 NOV 0>0.8
SY LAN-MSP SEP 0.1>0.9 OCT 0>0.9 NOV 0>0.8

TCX MCO-GLA JUN 0>0.3 JUL 0>0.3 SEP 0>0.3 OCT 0>0.3 NOV 0>0.3 DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.3
TCX MCO-MAN JUN 0>0.4 JUL 0>0.5 AUG 0>0.8 SEP 0>0.4 OCT 0>0.4 NOV 0>0.4 DEC 0>0.4 JAN 0>0.5

TN LAX-CDG JAN 0.6>0.5

TS MCO-YYZ JUN 0.3>0.2

UA DEN-DTW JAN 1.8>1.1
UA DEN-MFR JAN 1.8>1.1
UA DEN-PVR NOV 0.3>0.5
UA DEN-RAP JAN 7>5
UA DEN-SJD DEC 0.3>0.5
UA EWR-POP NOV 0.5>0.6
UA EWR-SAL OCT 0.1>0
UA EWR-SDQ DEC 1.0>1.5 JAN 1.0>1.1
UA EWR-SJU JAN 1.2>1.4
UA IAD-CUN DEC 0.9>1.2
UA IAD-PUJ DEC 0.1>0.3
UA IAD-SJO DEC 0.1>0.3
UA IAD-SJU NOV 0.5>0.3 DEC 0.4>0.6 JAN 0.4>0.5
UA IAH-HUX DEC 0.5>0.4
UA IAH-PVR NOV 2>1.7
UA IAH-SAL DEC 2>3
UA IAH-SAP DEC 1.0>1.3 JAN 1.0>1.1
UA IAH-SJD DEC 1.7>1.8
UA IAH-SJU DEC 1.0>1.5 JAN 1.0>1.1
UA LAX-EWR AUG 12>13
UA LAX-PVR NOV 0.3>0.5 DEC 0.3>0.5
UA LAX-SJD DEC 0.8>1.1
UA ORD-ALB JAN 5>4
UA ORD-ATL JAN 8>7
UA ORD-ATW JAN 6>5
UA ORD-BOI JAN 2>1.2
UA ORD-BOS JAN 9>7
UA ORD-BUF JAN 6>4
UA ORD-BWI JAN 6>4
UA ORD-CHS JAN 5>4
UA ORD-CUN DEC 0.9>1.4 JAN 1.0>1.2
UA ORD-DCA SEP 14>13
UA ORD-DFW NOV 7>8
UA ORD-FAR JAN 4>3
UA ORD-GSO JAN 5>4
UA ORD-IAD JAN 8>7
UA ORD-IND JAN 11>10
UA ORD-LAS JAN 5>4
UA ORD-LAX JAN 11>10
UA ORD-LNK JAN 4>3
UA ORD-MCI JAN 8>7
UA ORD-MCO JAN 6>5
UA ORD-MDT JAN 5>4
UA ORD-MSP JAN 12>10
UA ORD-NAS DEC 0.4>0.7
UA ORD-OKC JAN 4>3
UA ORD-ORF JAN 5>4
UA ORD-PDX JAN 4>3
UA ORD-PUJ DEC 0.1>0.4
UA ORD-PVR NOV 0.3>0.7 DEC 0.5>0.8
UA ORD-PWM JAN 3>2
UA ORD-RAP JAN 1.0>0.2
UA ORD-RIC JAN 6>5
UA ORD-ROC JAN 6>5
UA ORD-SAV JAN 3>2
UA ORD-SEA JAN 6>5
UA ORD-SJD DEC 0.2>0.5
UA ORD-SJO DEC 0.1>0.2
UA ORD-SJU DEC 1.0>1.1
UA ORD-SMF JAN 1.7>1.1
UA ORD-SYR JAN 5>4
UA ORD-TUL JAN 5>4
UA ORD-XNA JAN 3>1.7
UA ORD-YOW JAN 6>5
UA SAT-CUN DEC 0>0.1
UA SFO-AUS NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4
UA SFO-MSP NOV 0.8>2 DEC 0.9>2 JAN 0.8>2
UA SFO-PVR NOV 0.5>0.7 DEC 0.8>0.9

I assume we will see corresponding changes at AA next week
*US ABQ-LAX AUG 0>0.8
*US DEN-LAX AUG 0>1.8 SEP 0>4 OCT 0>4 NOV 0>4 DEC 0>4 JAN 0>4
*US DTW-MIA SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0
*US IAH-LAX AUG 0>1.4 SEP 0>3 OCT 0>3 NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3 JAN 0>3
*US LAX-OKC AUG 0>2 SEP 0>1.9 OCT 0>1.9 NOV 0>1.8 DEC 0>1.9 JAN 0>1.8
*US LAX-RNO SEP 0>3 OCT 0>3 NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3 JAN 0>3
*US LAX-SFO SEP 0>3 OCT 0>3 NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3 JAN 0>3
*US LAX-SJC AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3 OCT 0>3 NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3 JAN 0>3
*US LAX-XNA SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0
*US LGA-MIA SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0
*US MCO-MIA SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0
*US MIA-MSY SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0
*US MIA-RDU SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0
*US MIA-TPA AUG 1.7>3 SEP 0>3 OCT 0>3 NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3 JAN 0>3
*US PHX-LAX AUG 9>10 SEP 9>10 OCT 9>10 NOV 9>10 DEC 9>10 JAN 8>9
*US PHX-SEA SEP 5>6 OCT 5>6 NOV 5>6 DEC 5>6 JAN 5>6

UX JFK-MAD SEP 0.9>0.7
 
hiflyer
Posts: 1274
Joined: Wed Nov 24, 2004 1:38 am

RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 11:48 am

Interesting...no UA reaction yet to Frontier IAD announce.....
 
nkops
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Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2005 10:09 am

RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 11:53 am

Is F9 getting more a/c or are they closing something down for the IAD routes?
Turn left heading 080 contact departure
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7318
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 12:30 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
SEA effect on ANC-MSP
*DL ANC-MSP DEC 2>1.4 JAN 2>1.1

This is the same schedule as they have operated the past few winters.
ANC-MSP only operates 1x per day, with an additional flight on Saturdays. No different than December 2013, just now they adjusted the schedule.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL ATL-LNK SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0

New route, operated with a CR7

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL ATL-RST SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL DTW-RST SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
2 RTs on a route that short generally don't work well for connectivity.
**DL MSP-RST SEP 5>3 OCT 5>2 NOV 5>2 DEC 5>2 JAN 4>2

They are going from 4x RST-MSP CRJ to the following schedule:

Old schedule:

5:40am MSP CRJ
12:26pm MSP CRJ
2:50pm MSP CRJ
5:45pm MSP CRJ

New schedule:
6:45am DTW CRJ
7:00am MSP CRJ
2:21pm ATL CR7
4:45pm MSP CR7

This is similar in some ways to what DL did with FNT. Zero O&D on MSP-RST. But connections can flow over any hub, depending on thd direction of travel. The new schedule actually provides more seats out of RST in the early morning than before.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
This is interesting. Why would they do cuts so close in? Bookings I presume, but hard to believe JUL is weak.
*DL SEA-HKG JUL 1.0>0.8
*DL SEA-PVG JUL 1.0>0.8

In previous years, it was typical for the non-NRT flights to operate 5 or 6 times per week, during the the first year of service. Not uncommon for there to be 30% peaks/valleys in demand across the days of the week.
Interesting this is, that on the day they don't operate the next best routing is SEA-NRT-PVC all on DL metal, but SEA-ICN-HKG with a codeshare on KE for the ICN-HKG flight.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL DTW-AVL NOV 0.8>0

Post-merger, DTW-AVL has always been seasonal, and does not operate during the winter. Once the leaves drop, this route disappers until spring. (Fun fact, NW used to operate MSP-AVL because some exec had a home in AVL)
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 12:45 pm

Quoting DTW.SCE" class="quote" target="_blank">PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 3):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL DTW-AVL NOV 0.8>0

Post-merger, DTW-AVL has always been seasonal, and does not operate during the winter. Once the leaves drop, this route disappers until spring.

There's also an increase in seats on AVL-ATL at the same time as two more flights go from CR2 to CR7.
 
Triple7Lr
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 1:02 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL SLC-MCO JAN 1.9>3

Response to B6?
 
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kgaiflyer
Posts: 2741
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 3:22 am

RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 1:05 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA ORD-BWI JAN 6>4

Understandable in that traffic is mainly business and mainly morning and evening. In the middle of the day, E145s have been flying.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 1:32 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
This is interesting. Why would they do cuts so close in? Bookings I presume, but hard to believe JUL is weak.
*DL SEA-HKG JUL 1.0>0.8
*DL SEA-PVG JUL 1.0>0.8

Less then daily in July! Hummmm that is interesting. Doesn't seem like a good move IMHO and pretty close in. Those planes must have been empty to do this. Delta needs to offer consistancy in SEA. Delta needs to be reliable and offer consistancy to grow their base of flyers.
 
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tlecam
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 1:43 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA ORD-BOS JAN 9>7

I wonder if this is seasonal reduction or upgauging aircraft. Anyone have any thoughts? I fly the route often and my flights are jammed (not sure about profitable).

B6 is also reducing a flight on the route in Sept.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
B6 BOS-ORD SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3
BOS-LGA-JFK | A:319/20/21, 332/3, 346 || B:717, 735, 737, 738, 739, 752, 753, 762, 763, 764, 787, 772, 744 || MD80, MD90
 
premobrimo
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Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:36 am

RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 1:47 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA SFO-MSP NOV 0.8>2 DEC 0.9>2 JAN 0.8>2

Ugh...more UA RJs at MSP...
Now You're Flying Smart.
 
ScottB
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 2:54 pm

Quoting tlecam (Reply 8):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA ORD-BOS JAN 9>7

I wonder if this is seasonal reduction or upgauging aircraft. Anyone have any thoughts? I fly the route often and my flights are jammed (not sure about profitable).

I took a look at the schedule and it's just a big capacity cut. The December schedule has 7x mainline and 3x UA*, while the January schedule goes to 4x mainline and 3x UA*.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
9K ACK-BOS JUL 18>15 AUG 18>15 SEP 12>11

Odd to see this cut at the height of the summer peak; probably due to the seasonal B6 non-stop?
 
MSPNWA
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 3:05 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
2 RTs on a route that short generally don't work well for connectivity.

I was expecting MSP-RST to disappear with the CR2 drawdown. The writing is on the wall now. DL may pull out of RST entirely. 1x to DTW has little chance of surviving. It's been done before and didn't work.

Basically DL is ceding RST to AA.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
This is interesting. Why would they do cuts so close in? Bookings I presume, but hard to believe JUL is weak.

Because SEA is no gold mine. And airlines don't mind doing a bit of bait and switching as backup for when things don't go as planned.

Quoting premobrimo (Reply 9):
Ugh...more UA RJs at MSP...

But it's the new E75, and UA will offer more seats at much better times. Nice addition.

[Edited 2014-05-19 08:06:29]
 
MIflyer12
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 3:12 pm

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 7):
Less then daily in July! Hummmm that is interesting. Doesn't seem like a good move IMHO and pretty close in. Those planes must have been empty to do this. Delta needs to offer consistancy in SEA. Delta needs to be reliable and offer consistancy to grow their base of flyers.

Consistency is a good goal but operating for profit is the primary goal. Smart carriers don't ignore big daily load variations on long-haul routes for the sake of claiming daily service. Some DL flyers may get rerouted and have a connection. Those DL connections are still very competitive in total travel time vs. alternatives.
 
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tlecam
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 3:19 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 10):
I took a look at the schedule and it's just a big capacity cut. The December schedule has 7x mainline and 3x UA*, while the January schedule goes to 4x mainline and 3x UA*.

Wow. In January, AA is showing 9 daily flights on ORD - BOS; all 738 service.


Is it me or is that a fairly significant shift in the competition for that route? That's a large business route.
BOS-LGA-JFK | A:319/20/21, 332/3, 346 || B:717, 735, 737, 738, 739, 752, 753, 762, 763, 764, 787, 772, 744 || MD80, MD90
 
AirFiero
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 3:20 pm

AS SJC-GDL NOV 1.0>0.7


Hmmm, seems like the opposite time of year for a frequency reduction. Is this not so much a seasonal route? Is the route not doing well for AS?

[Edited 2014-05-19 08:24:23]
 
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SANFan
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 3:24 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AS SEA-SAN NOV 7>6

Fastinating. Seeing AS furthering their retreat in their once-prized SEA-SAN market. I know they might be using mostly -900s in the market (lessening the overall loss of seats in the market) but what about frequency of flights? This is supposedly one of AS's top markets and it's been a LONG time since they've run as few as 6 daily nonstops. (It's also interesting to see how they continue to beef up LA-SEA though...)

I have to believe this has to do with the new competition in the market (both WN and DL flying SAN-SEA starting next month) but I certainly never expected this kind of reaction from AS...

bb
 
MaverickM11
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 3:25 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
This is interesting. Why would they do cuts so close in? Bookings I presume, but hard to believe JUL is weak.

I bet it is just something going on in the sample week.
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redzeppelin
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 3:37 pm

Quoting Triple7Lr (Reply 5):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter): DL SLC-MCO JAN 1.9>3
Response to B6?

My thoughts exactly. You beat me to it.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 3:38 pm

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 11):
I was expecting MSP-RST to disappear with the CR2 drawdown. The writing is on the wall now. DL may pull out of RST entirely. 1x to DTW has little chance of surviving. It's been done before and didn't work.

It's easy to see how the morning MSP flight goes away with the drawdown of 50-seaters; just upgauge DTW. I'm not convinced that 3 daily flights (2 to DTW, 1 to ATL) ultimately would not work. Certainly, a market like FNT has successfully transitioned away from dependence on the hub in whose shadow it sits.
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SANFan
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 3:43 pm

Quoting AirFiero (Reply 14):
AS SJC-GDL NOV 1.0>0.7

Hmmm, seems like the opposite time of year for a frequency reduction. Is this not so much a seasonal route? Is the route not doing well for AS?

Three major Mexico routes out of LA are also being reduced at the same time... I'll be watching this closely.

bb
 
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 3:46 pm

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 11):
uoting premobrimo (Reply 9):
Ugh...more UA RJs at MSP...

But it's the new E75, and UA will offer more seats at much better times. Nice addition.

from today's press release:

United will offer E175 in several additional markets beginning in June, complementing existing United services:

Chicago-Minneapolis /St. Paul, beginning June 5
Chicago-Atlanta, beginning June 15
Houston-Atlanta, beginning June 15
Houston-New Orleans, beginning June 15
Chicago-New York LaGuardia, beginning June 23
San Francisco-St. Louis, beginning Sept. 20
San Francisco-Austin, beginning Oct. 26
San Francisco-Dallas/Fort Worth, beginning Oct. 26
San Francisco-Minneapolis/ St. Paul, beginning Oct. 26

A lot of routes are getting upgraded. I know all the ALPA guys want only mainline on most routes but until the mainline fleet actually increases in numbers, the E175 is a huge improvement over the smaller RJs. Each seat in F will have a power plug as well.
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jetblue1965
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 5:12 pm

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 20):
United will offer E175 in several additional markets beginning in June, complementing existing United services:

Chicago-Minneapolis /St. Paul, beginning June 5
Chicago-Atlanta, beginning June 15
Houston-Atlanta, beginning June 15
Houston-New Orleans, beginning June 15
Chicago-New York LaGuardia, beginning June 23
San Francisco-St. Louis, beginning Sept. 20
San Francisco-Austin, beginning Oct. 26
San Francisco-Dallas/Fort Worth, beginning Oct. 26
San Francisco-Minneapolis/ St. Paul, beginning Oct. 26

A lot of routes are getting upgraded. I know all the ALPA guys want only mainline on most routes but until the mainline fleet actually increases in numbers, the E175 is a huge improvement over the smaller RJs. Each seat in F will have a power plug as well.

definitely a step in the right direction (if they're actually replacing E145/CR2s).

The ones that REALLY need upgrade are EWR-DCA. If they want DC folks to use their EWR hub for international flights, they ought to offer some minimum level of reliability.
 
avi8
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 5:32 pm

I don't understand why UA doesn't focus on strengthening one hub with a lot of E175 service on flights that used to be operated by ERJs instead of placing a couple on each hub and operating once daily on markets that have a lot of RJ's.
avi8

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jetblue1965
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 5:50 pm

Quoting avi8 (Reply 22):
I don't understand why UA doesn't focus on strengthening one hub with a lot of E175 service on flights that used to be operated by ERJs instead of placing a couple on each hub and operating once daily on markets that have a lot of RJ's.

If you view it from the opposite lens, it is strengthening their competitive position to rival hubs (or, if you rephrase it, "being remotely competitive at all")

I see lots of ATL MSP DFW on the list.
 
catiii
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 5:52 pm

Quoting hiflyer (Reply 1):
Interesting...no UA reaction yet to Frontier IAD announce.....

Is it really anything to react to though? No route is seeing more than one flight per day, some aren't even daily, and there's zero consistency to the times in which flights to the same city are offered from one day to the next. I saw one blog posting that used the ORD example: M-W-F: IAD-ORD @ 0700; Tu-Th: @1645; Sa: @1350. Are they really going to poach from UA's business traveler base with that schedule and a ULCC model? Doubtful.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 6:02 pm

Quoting redzeppelin (Reply 17):
Quoting Triple7Lr (Reply 5):Quoting enilria (Thread starter): DL SLC-MCO JAN 1.9>3
Response to B6?
My thoughts exactly. You beat me to it.

I didn't think it was until i saw they added a redeye. That would directly compete with B6. Looking up a random date in January i saw 2x757 and 1 738. I know alot of times in winter delta was running 2x757 and they were going out full anyway. I don't think they want to let jetblue have it too easy. This is the airline that has been pretty agressive on SLC-LGB, i guess they think its worth the investment to keep B6 at bay. So jetblue and Delta directly compete on SLC-LGB/JFK and now MCO. I guess they want to make a statement.
 
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jetblastdubai
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 6:10 pm

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 21):
definitely a step in the right direction (if they're actually replacing E145/CR2s).

If they're not replacing a smaller RJ, they're at least putting a very 'business-friendly' aircraft on some high value routes. Lots of people on here mentioned that they'd prefer to fly an E170/175/190 type of A/C in a 2x2 configuration instead of a 3x3 mainline.

The big marketing challenge will be to somehow capture the flyers that log on and see "operated by United Express" and run away before even looking at the type aircraft. ual.com might have to put something extra by the aircraft type on the web site, much like they do with the 787, to really highlight the aircraft type.
Every zoo is a petting zoo......if you're a man!
 
catiii
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 6:11 pm

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 21):
The ones that REALLY need upgrade are EWR-DCA. If they want DC folks to use their EWR hub for international flights, they ought to offer some minimum level of reliability.

1000% agree. Forget international flights, even to make us want to use it for domestic connections or as an alternate Shuttle if you live in Hoboken or on the West Side. The 145s are unreliable, late, and have a crappy product. The Q400s are marginally better given they have an F product. This is a route crying out for 175s, even if its just at peak times.
 
SouthernDC9
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 6:20 pm

Thanks Enilria for this highlight of my Monday...

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA ORD-XNA JAN 3>1.7

I would think it's pretty hard to compete with AA and their bigger jets + more frequencies? (And generally, for points beyond ORD, tough to compete with AA as well as DL and the larger planes they are adding?)
What does AA/US merger mean for CLT/JFK/PHX/North America/Southern Hemisphere/God's Plan for the Universe
 
HPRamper
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 6:56 pm

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 11):
I was expecting MSP-RST to disappear with the CR2 drawdown. The writing is on the wall now. DL may pull out of RST entirely. 1x to DTW has little chance of surviving. It's been done before and didn't work.

Basically DL is ceding RST to AA.

Considering there is little to zero O&D on the route it doesn't need to be served from MSP, in my opinion. As long as it's served from ATL and DTW, it won't be ceded to anyone. RST however needs some kind of link to the west. SLC would be a good add for RST.

Quoting catiii (Reply 24):
Are they really going to poach from UA's business traveler base with that schedule and a ULCC model? Doubtful.

They aren't going for business traffic. But those UA planes aren't just full of business pax. This will result in more empty seats on UA planes, period, the end.
 
point2point
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 7:06 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
LH CLT-MUC JAN 1.0>0.8

Is this a typical seasonal adjustment..... or is it without *A feed now at CLT, LH is starting to get some weakness on this route?

 
 
hjulicher
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 7:11 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL DTW-SRQ JAN 0.7>0.3

Why would DL reduce this route in Jan when all the snowbirds go to SRQ? Not sure, I'd assume this could easily be filled.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA DEN-DTW JAN 1.8>1.1

Is UA really that weak on this route that they cannot even sustain 2x CRJ on it? How is it that all other carriers on the route can fly mainline?


Why hasn't UA or AA jumped and started SFO/LAX-DTW respectively? Seems like DL gets all the traffic here?
Detroit Moves the World!
LH 442
 
lhpdx
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 7:17 pm

AS PDX-BOI NOV 6>7 DEC 6>7 JAN 6>7
AS PDX-BOS JAN 1.0>0.7
AS PDX-SJC NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4 JAN 5>4


I'm starting to get really nervous about Alaska future at PDX.......................Are these seasonal adjustments? :  Wow!  
 
jetblue1965
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 7:21 pm

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 26):
The big marketing challenge will be to somehow capture the flyers that log on and see "operated by United Express" and run away before even looking at the type aircraft. ual.com might have to put something extra by the aircraft type on the web site, much like they do with the 787, to really highlight the aircraft type.

I don't it's the UX portion that bothers people. DL is 100% E-jets on LGA-ORD and people aren't complaining one bit.

What UA needs to stop that petty EWR-SFO/LAX war and release some mainline capacity back to the system.
 
HPRamper
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 7:27 pm

Quoting lhpdx (Reply 32):
I'm starting to get really nervous about Alaska future at PDX.......................Are these seasonal adjustments?

AS isn't going anywhere at PDX   A few tiny cuts and adjustments like this aren't even beginning to concern me.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 7:34 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 29):
They aren't going for business traffic. But those UA planes aren't just full of business pax. This will result in more empty seats on UA planes, period, the end.

Correct on all fronts. That said, as long as F9 sells a bundled ticket, they'll get some incidental business traffic. I have a lot of trips on which I'm not quite sure of the timing on one end or the other and I buy multiple tickets. That type of scenario has sometimes included F9 when going to out of the way destinations where F9 has a comparatively high amount of service, and if I was going somewhere where IAD was the most convenient option (not a very big area, I know), I see no reason why something similar wouldn't happen for me at IAD. If traveling on a day F9 operates, UA actually doesn't have that much more frequency to a lot of the cities in question, and the Z gates are a selling point.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
flyjoe
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 7:53 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
LH CLT-MUC JAN 1.0>0.8

Is this a typical seasonal adjustment..... or is it without *A feed now at CLT, LH is starting to get some weakness on this route?

Quoting point2point (Reply 30):

LH has operated this route less than daily in the past during the winter months. It's been anywhere from 5x-7x a week over the years.
 
MesaFlyGuy
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 7:58 pm

Quoting point2point (Reply 30):

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
LH CLT-MUC JAN 1.0>0.8

Is this a typical seasonal adjustment..... or is it without *A feed now at CLT, LH is starting to get some weakness on this route?

 

Typical seasonal adjustment.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA ORD-CHS JAN 5>4

I heard a rumor that UA was interested in bringing mainline to CHS. I hope this comes to fruition. IF not mainline, at least some larger RJs as all we have right now is one daily CRJ-700 thrown in on the ORD flights.
The views I express are my own and do not reflect the views and opinions of my company.
 
catiii
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 8:03 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 29):
They aren't going for business traffic. But those UA planes aren't just full of business pax. This will result in more empty seats on UA planes, period, the end.

But will it really? That low-yield leisure traveler, if it even does exist at IAD, is a marginal rounding error, and isn't really going to impact the bottom line. What low cost carrier has gained enough traction at IAD to really hurt UA? JetBlue? Left for DCA. Virgin America? Leaving as fast as it can for DCA. Spirit? Could care less, and prefers BWI.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 8:05 pm

Quoting hjulicher (Reply 31):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL DTW-SRQ JAN 0.7>0.3

Why would DL reduce this route in Jan when all the snowbirds go to SRQ? Not sure, I'd assume this could easily be filled.

January (post-holiday) is a much slower travel period as leisure travel is almost non-existant. It rapidly picks-up again in mid-February when winter/spring break traffic resumes.

Quoting MesaFlyGuy (Reply 37):
I heard a rumor that UA was interested in bringing mainline to CHS. I hope this comes to fruition. IF not mainline, at least some larger RJs as all we have right now is one daily CRJ-700 thrown in on the ORD flights.

Ha, that and about 50 other markets. No way that UA brings mainline into CHS, especially on CHS-ORD.
 
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SANFan
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 8:05 pm

Quoting lhpdx (Reply 32):
AS PDX-BOS JAN 1.0>0.7

All I can say is last January (2014) AS op'd this route 5x weekly pretty much from January to March or April. Looks like about the same thing will happen this winter. They do have competition from Blue on the route at least part of the year.

SJC-PDX could very well be an equipment u/g where a 737 might be replacing 2 Qs, thus fewer flights but actually an increase in the number of seats.

bb
 
Cubsrule
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 8:13 pm

Quoting catiii (Reply 38):
What low cost carrier has gained enough traction at IAD to really hurt UA? JetBlue? Left for DCA. Virgin America? Leaving as fast as it can for DCA. Spirit? Could care less, and prefers BWI.

Though they had plenty of trouble making money, DH had no trouble filling airplanes on most routes.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
MSPNWA
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 8:27 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 29):
Considering there is little to zero O&D on the route it doesn't need to be served from MSP, in my opinion. As long as it's served from ATL and DTW, it won't be ceded to anyone. RST however needs some kind of link to the west. SLC would be a good add for RST.

ATL and DTW are poor substitutes for MSP and ORD. DTW and ATL don't make sense for anything outside of the Eastern Time Zone. MSP and ORD can take you most anywhere with minimal backtracking. Plus they're very short flights on an uncomfortable CRJ, not up to 2 hours like RST-ATL will be. Only 4x daily RST flights split up among 3 hubs makes little sense for a traveler. Connections will be difficult to match up. It will just push traffic to AA or cause more to drive to MSP. Once demand drops again with the new schedule, you'll see further cuts.
 
crAAzy
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 8:35 pm

Quoting tlecam (Reply 13):

Wow. In January, AA is showing 9 daily flights on ORD - BOS; all 738 service.
Is it me or is that a fairly significant shift in the competition for that route? That's a large business route.

Expected shift with the merger between US/AA - similar to what you'll see or are seeing on the DCA-ORD route. The combined AA/US easily becomes #2 at BOS by a double digit percentage above DL which is #3 when you consider US Express and DL Connection.

Once things settle a bit with the merger, I think it's going to be very interesting to see what US decides to do with BOS. I wouldn't be surprised to see them add a few more destinations, especially in those secondary markets along the east coast/midwest where US/AA are going to become the dominant carrier.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 8:42 pm

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 42):
ATL and DTW are poor substitutes for MSP and ORD. DTW and ATL don't make sense for anything outside of the Eastern Time Zone.

I don't see what the problem is with DTW. Given the endemic congestion at ORD, trip times through DTW will be similar on most journeys.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 8:55 pm

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 42):
they're very short flights on an uncomfortable CRJ, not up to 2 hours like RST-ATL will be.

CR7, the first 2-class product into RST.

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 42):
Connections will be difficult to match up. It will just push traffic to AA or cause more to drive to MSP. Once demand drops again with the new schedule, you'll see further cuts.

This actually improves connectivity for RST - with nonstops to DTW and ATL, this eliminates a vast number of double-connects to RST, now giving single connection options over DTW and ATL where service to MSP does not exist. Numerous small and mid-sized markets in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast.
 
ScottB
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 9:46 pm

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 43):
I think it's going to be very interesting to see what US decides to do with BOS. I wouldn't be surprised to see them add a few more destinations

I would be very surprised to see AA/US add new destinations from BOS given how much both AA & US chose to cut in the past. US has retained very little of the large focus operation they had 15 years ago, and AA cut back virtually all non-hub flying a few years back as well.
 
MAH4546
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 9:59 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 46):
I would be very surprised to see AA/US add new destinations from BOS given how much both AA & US chose to cut in the past. US has retained very little of the large focus operation they had 15 years ago, and AA cut back virtually all non-hub flying a few years back as well.

The combined operation is barely smaller than JetBlue and has a lot of leverage in the community now. I don't expect major expansion, but I do think BOSSFO will return.
a.
 
CIDFlyer
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 10:20 pm

Quoting DTW.SCE" class="quote" target="_blank">PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 45):
This actually improves connectivity for RST - with nonstops to DTW and ATL, this eliminates a vast number of double-connects to RST, now giving single connection options over DTW and ATL where service to MSP does not exist. Numerous small and mid-sized markets in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast.

agreed..I just dont see the doom and gloom of DL leaving RST like some others do. I think it's a fairly decent schedule and diversifes it's hub offerings...DTW flights to connect to the northeast and eastern midwest, ATL for the southeast and its plethora of international/Caribbean connections and MSP to handle whatever goes out west. I'm sure DL has done some research on where RST passengers are connecting to and have come up with an optimal schedule to fit their needs there.
 
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redzeppelin
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RE: OAG Changes 5/23/2014: AS/B6/DL/F9/UA/US

Mon May 19, 2014 10:42 pm

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 45):
CR7, the first 2-class product into RST

In recent memory, true. I flew F on a DC9 out of RST in 2002. (I actually had several DC9 flights to/from RST around then, but only once in F!) I also logged some AA F100 flights on RST-ORD in about 2003--never in F, but I believe they had it.

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