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AirlineCritic
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Mon May 26, 2014 8:55 pm

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 49):
Just thinking, what if it's not the captain or the FO... what if this was just a simple hijack made by some avgeek who knew airways, etc, transponders, etc, but has only been testing these on the home FlightSim, using full fuel all time... I bet he thought he would have made to Australia that way...   

That is an interesting scenario. I think it is a possibility, just like the other ones are. But I think the goals must still have been similar to the captain or FO case (i.e., crash the plane). Even an avgeek would know that airplanes do not take off with full fuel loads.

I sincerely hope that the passengers were not awake when they realised the pilots are killed/cockpit is burned out/hijacker has the plane.
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Mon May 26, 2014 8:56 pm

Quote:
Quoting Mandala: Now that's a very interesting path... Looks like it missed WarrenPlatt's D200J/D155J idea (to which he claims he never insisted on, and is not married to that idea).

To me, it looks like that the aircraft was programmed to go back to PEN by someone... the line goes from VKB VOR to a waypoint which would be on the arrivals, ENDOR, with a possibility that it was preceeded by PUKAR (although it looks like PUKAR was not 'used'). Pulling this on the FMC one would just go and select the STAR applicable to their direction, a BIDMO1A arrival.
But that's about as far as the waypoints go in this case... it didn't go to MEKAT waypoint (the next one in the arrival for BIDMO1A). Nor does it appear to go via KENDI (the next one after MEKAT)... although it might have, but OPOVI (the last waypoint on ISMAS1A or LUNTU1A arrival before KENDI)

Crudely drawn, but yes, interesting nonetheless. I must say it does kind of look like ENDOR and then OPOVI could have been the chosen waypoints. Thanks for listing those other waypoints--I did not know about them! 

http://i.imgur.com/ulvuWN5.png

Quote:
Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 28):
I'm waiting on the release of the raw data...   

Quoting Mandala: I guess you're not that confident as you were a few topics ago then...

Uh, well, it seems only prudent to wait for definitive data given that there are at least four sets of "ping rings" floating around out there, all different, that I know about....
 
sipadan
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Mon May 26, 2014 9:05 pm

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 49):
Just thinking, what if it's not the captain or the FO... what if this was just a simple hijack made by some avgeek who knew airways, etc, transponders, etc, but has only been testing these on the home FlightSim, using full fuel all time... I bet he thought he would have made to Australia that way...   

yeah, and he was a jedi-mind reader, a one-man wrecking crew ninja man, and the world of intel knows nothing about him...even after digging into his past with a fine-toothed comb. Or, he was drunk. I suspect word of this new breed of superhuman would have by now spread wide and far. Unless it was a secret govt. trial with the newest cyborg prototype.

I LOVE the idea...but no, just no.
 
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Revelation
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Mon May 26, 2014 9:55 pm

Now I know how that Amelia Earhart story keeps coming back time and time again...
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Mon May 26, 2014 11:14 pm

There's actually a waypoint named ENDOR?
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
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Bruce
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 12:22 am

One thoery that I like is one I found on another forum: an oxygen-fed flash fire in the cockpit. It wouldn't have brought the plane down. Its a very quick fire that extinguished itself, possibly after burning a hole in the fuselage. One or both pilots may have been killed, and the fire extinguished by the cold rushing air. The plane's essential flight systems down in the avionics bay would have not been damaged, but the control panels were. If a pilot escaped, they may have tried to re-enter the cockpit and found all their controls and radios fried..... cruising along on autopilot with no way to call for help and no way to move the yoke or throttle levers. And no satphone. No reception on cell phones from the cabin. The remaining pilot would have died when the onboard O2 ran out. The lack of air could have killed everybody and the plane would just fly on.

A fire like this happened a while back to an Egypt 777 parked on the ground. All the plastic knobs, dials, screens, etc melted.

Bruce
Bruce Leibowitz - Jackson, MS (KJAN) - Canon 50D/100-400L IS lens
 
bluesky9
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 12:35 am

Quoting Bruce (Reply 58):
A fire like this happened a while back to an Egypt 777 parked on the ground. All the plastic knobs, dials, screens, etc melted.

Already mentioned here by me and many others a long time ago.

News: Raw Inmarsat data maybe released today.

On whether the A/C flew North or South.
The initial N/S calcs by Inmarsat were done based on cruise speed. At cruise speed, the magnitude of the difference between the N/S velocities of the A/C relative to the satellite are much larger, so it would be easier to determine which way the A/C was going. However at slower speeds the difference in N/S velocities is much lower, not just because of the A/C speed but because the A/C must have a smaller N/S vector component as well to be consistent with crossing the other ping rings. Meaning it might be easier for the error bands on the doppler calculations to subsume the N/S signal.

See here for some discussion on this:
http://www.reddit.com/user/GlobusMax

and here

Quoting Sean McLeod:

http://mcleodsean.wordpress.com/2014/04/25/mh-370-forward-tracking/
All three of the plots above only show southern routes matching both the ping rings and the Doppler data. However if I drop the ground speed to 300kt and use a Doppler error margin of 70% then some of the northern routes also match.
 
Antidote
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 12:44 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 56):
There's actually a waypoint named ENDOR?



"It's an older waypoint, sir, but it checks out!"
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 12:55 am

Quoting SoJo (Reply 44):
I think the aircraft landed at Butterworth, was broken up and hidden within the old 33 Squadron Bloodhound missile site.

Perfect answer. Sounds good to me! It is not where they are presently searching. Why? Because they haven't found it there.

Simples!

I wouldn't rule it out, as well as Diego Garcia or a few other places. The longer we go without having a single piece of wreckage or debris washing up on a beach somewhere the more I think it is somewhere else very far away or either intentionally landed or came down in a remote area of land...
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bluesky9
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 1:03 am

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 41):
Most likely, the military radars were not actively observed at that point of time and they only later found out that MH370 might be in the military radar recordings.

I mentioned this a while ago, very unlikely that the military radar had someone looking at the screen at that hour of the morning.

Quoting giopan1975 (Reply 43):
I cannot imagine Malay Government was not aware of the military radar observations since Day 1. Was the indication too weak to start searching in the Straits ONLY after they had rulled out the Gulf of Thailand?

Were they buying time for some reason?

Once the military found out about MH370, they probably had to work out how to replay the tape, collect the replays from different radars, and then they would have spent a few hours studying the traces, then the result would need to percolate up through the ranks, while they tried to work out what the civilian authorities knew. All the while hoping that the radar paint had nothing to do with MH370, since they are going to look bad if it is. That is why it would take so long.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 1:04 am

Quoting antidote (Reply 60):
"It's an older waypoint, sir, but it checks out!"

01:19:24 ATC Malaysian Three Seven Zero What happened?
01:19:29 MAS370 Uh, we had a slight weapons malfunction, but uh... everything's perfectly all right now. We're fine. We're all fine here now, thank you. How are you?

[Edited 2014-05-26 18:09:19]
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
bluesky9
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 1:39 am

A while ago I talked about a (lowish probability but possible) scenario where a modified maintenance device is plugged into the EE bay to turn the A/C into a type of drone, so the A/C could be controlled remotely or from the EE bay.

But a variation on this that does not require access to the EE bay and involves simpler equipment that already exists is the brief case size GPS spoofer. (Reported by Fox News http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2013/07/...t-terrorists-hijack-ships-planes/) A device like this could be used to navigate the A/C to wherever the hijacker(s) wanted without changing the initial programmed route. That is the A/P could remain engaged while the calculated current GPS positions of the A/C and waypoints could be manipulated (by the GPS spoofing device) to take the A/C way off course. (This requires that the pilots are incapacitated.)

Along similar lines, I am wondering whether the SSR & ACARS could be jammed (from inside the A/C or by a nearby drone), rather than turned off. One problem I see with this, is that this sort of jamming (SSR & ACARS) would require a lot of power to be effective. i.e. a lot of Lithium Ion batteries (?) or by plugging into some serious power outlets if done from inside the A/C.

[Edited 2014-05-26 18:43:27]

[Edited 2014-05-26 18:54:52]

[Edited 2014-05-26 18:57:49]
 
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Bruce
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 1:55 am

But if it was turned into a drone, why hasn't it done anything yet? Like crash into something? What good does a 777 do if it sits in a remote hangar somewhere?

Bruce
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fotoflyer71
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 2:38 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 49):
To me, it looks like that the aircraft was programmed to go back to PEN by someone... the line goes from VKB VOR to a waypoint which would be on the arrivals, ENDOR, with a possibility that it was preceeded by PUKAR (although it looks like PUKAR was not 'used'). Pulling this on the FMC one would just go and select the STAR applicable to their direction, a BIDMO1A arrival.
But that's about as far as the waypoints go in this case... it didn't go to MEKAT waypoint (the next one in the arrival for BIDMO1A). Nor does it appear to go via KENDI (the next one after MEKAT)... although it might have, but OPOVI (the last waypoint on ISMAS1A or LUNTU1A arrival before KENDI)

Mandala - do any of these STARs appear to have any curveballs that would cause a FMC flight plan discontinuity? My memory is rusty on the kinds of situations that would cause this - I think one simple example would be a " From over PUKAR INT fly heading xxx degrees for vectors to final approach course". In my understanding, if such a discontinuity exists, and something prevents the pilots (system malfunction/ incapacitation) from manually dropping the next waypoint onto the discontinuity then the Try to learn from the mistakes of others. You won't live long enough to make all of them yourself.
 
bluesky9
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 2:42 am

Quoting Bruce (Reply 65):
But if it was turned into a drone, why hasn't it done anything yet? Like crash into something? What good does a 777 do if it sits in a remote hangar somewhere?

We cannot know whether some aim has been achieved or not.
It temporarily strained the Malaysian/China relationship at a critical point in time. (It is not just the obvious countries that benefit from this?)
It may have stopped some important cargo reaching China.
If the A/C sits in a hanger somewhere it could be useful to someone in a future false flag operation.
It may have achieved the aims of (a) hijacker(s), or perhaps those aims were thwarted by the crew.
The motive however does not appear to be ordinary terrorism, since no one has claimed responsibility.

However, I put higher probability on the following scenarios (& variations of them):

1. Fierce oxygen, electrical or toxic fire -> one or more pilots seriously incapacitated -> combined with A/C control problems -> leads to attempt to return to Penang -> can't control A/C need more time so they fly out to the last radar point -> loss of control when attempting second turn back -> violent turn at high bank angle and overspeed -> causes ping burst -> loss of some A/C control surfaces -> they slow down to max endurance to buy time -> both pilots now incapacitated -> crew or pax cannot access cockpit -> A/C flies on in HDG mode on last heading (can't tell from doppler) whether North or South. (highest probability)

2. Hijack by person(s) who is/are not part of crew -> forces crew to fly course as plotted by radar -> Altercation with crew at last radar point -> causes plane to high angle of bank, sudden loss of altitude overspeed, loss of control surfaces -> ping burst -> increased drag -> low speed scenario 300kts -> A/C flies North or South (can't tell from doppler) -> A/C flies on in HDG mode on last heading. (medium to low probability)

I hope they find some trace of the A/C, so we can all find out what happened and learn something from it that can help the entire industry stop anything like this happening again.

[Edited 2014-05-26 20:27:28]
 
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fotoflyer71
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 2:57 am

Crap - my post 66 above all screwed up and unable to edit it.. finishing sentence here:

...something prevents the pilots (system malfunction/ incapacitation) from manually dropping the next waypoint onto the discontinuity then the AP would fly the heading called for by the STAR (or current heading if no heading depicted) to infinity, even if it was in LNAV mode right? In other words it would act as if it was in HDGSEL mode and fly itself out of the area?
Try to learn from the mistakes of others. You won't live long enough to make all of them yourself.
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 3:39 am

Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 67):
We cannot know whether some aim has been achieved or not.

  

Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 67):
It temporarily strained the Malaysian/China relationship at a critical point in time. (It is not just the obvious countries that benefit from this?)

  

Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 67):
It may have stopped some important cargo reaching China.

   That's if it did not end up somewhere in China...

Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 67):
If the A/C sits in a hanger somewhere it could be useful to someone in a future false flag operation.

   I really feel for the pax if this is what happened.

Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 67):
It may have achieved the aims of (a) hijacker(s), or perhaps those aims were thwarted by the crew.

  

Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 67):
The motive however does not appear to be ordinary terrorism, since no one has claimed responsibility.

   I also get that feeling...
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747megatop
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 4:41 am

 
bluesky9
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 4:44 am

Quoting David L (Reply 27):
How many times do you need it to be explained that the "basic" Inmarsat analysis of the communication with the aircraft showed a turn to the west and that further analysis indicated a later turn to the south?

The military radar tracking is not the only evidence of the turns.

The above is David L responding to Nav 30.

The turn South vs North occurs after the end of the radar coverage, and the conclusion of south is based on the doppler effect due to the North/South velocity relative to the satellite. As I mentioned, the Inmarsat calculations that concluded south over north were based on cruise speed. However, if you look at lower speeds, the absolute magnitude of the difference in the N/S relative velocities is smaller, for two reasons. 1. The absolute difference in N/S speeds is lower, 2. the angle the A/C must cross the ping rings is greater with less North South component. Under these conditions, the error margin in the doppler calculations could exceed the signal. i.e. we might not be able to distinguish between the North South path. (To clarify, the ping rings themselves should be accurate, but the doppler effect has a bigger error band.)

At first I dismissed the North path as well, but I see it is possible, under low speed scenarios. Of course if the A/C took the Northern route we would most likely have had witnesses unless it went down somewhere very remote.

Also if the A/C went South as most expect, then the search area might turn out to be larger than so far allocated, unless there is other data that can be used to reduce the search area.

It should just be a matter of time before the A/C is found, it just may take longer than would wish or expect.

[Edited 2014-05-26 21:46:07]
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 5:09 am

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 70):
Inmarsat satellite data on MH 370 released - http://www.cnn.com/2014/05/27/world/...hp_c2

And link to the actual data PDF (47 pages):

http://www.dca.gov.my/mainpage/MH370%20Data%20Communication%20Logs.pdf

The log confirms that the link was lost some time between 17:07:48 Z and 18:03:41 Z after the last ACARS message. Aircraft terminal initiated a log-on request at 18:25 Z (end of the previous link lost sometime between 17:07:48 Z and 18:03:41 Z).
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 5:11 am

Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 71):
It should just be a matter of time before the A/C is found, it just may take longer than would wish or expect.

The 8 months Angus Houston said was for the revised / expanded search area. If it is not there it could end up taking 8 years, or longer. If so, my bet is that they will stop searching eventually and if it is ever found it will be a Titanic style mission...
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YoungMans
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 5:26 am

Quoting Bruce (Reply 65):
But if it was turned into a drone, why hasn't it done anything yet? Like crash into something? What good does a 777 do if it sits in a remote hangar somewhere?

If I let my imagination go totally wild here .... and, please understand, that is what this is ....
This whole drama may not have been about the plane; there could have been totally different motives. Be it some cargo the aircraft carried, maybe some of the people on board or maybe something else altogether that we couldn't even imagine.

And you wouldn't need a hangar to hide a plane like that on the ground. All you had to do is get the thing on the ground somewhere, in the back of Asia, in a desert or on a road to a gravel pit. A couple of CAT D-10's (bulldozers) would have something like that buried and covered in three, four hours flat, all still in the darkness of the night.
By daylight the satellites wouldn't notice anything different.

This is of course total "Not-the Full-Quid-Imagination"; the point I'm trying to illustrate is ...
.... unless we sometimes start thinking a little outside the box, we may not get anywhere at all.
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 5:38 am

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 74):
This whole drama may not have been about the plane; there could have been totally different motives. Be it some cargo the aircraft carried, maybe some of the people on board or maybe something else altogether that we couldn't even imagine.

I have to say, that if this was human intervention (excluding suicide) then I would guess that it had nothing to do with the plane itself and like you said, would be about the cargo or something / someone of value on board. If they wanted a 777 there are plenty of 777 flights to pick from... The issue with the cargo scanners not working leads me to believe the cargo might have played a role?

BTW, sorry if I have forgotten, does anybody know the itinerary of the employees of the semi-conductor firm? I mean, their actual destination and routing? I'm sure it was mentioned but I can't recall. Did their trip start in KUL that day? Or, were they flying a route like Texas-LAX-NRT-KUL-PEK when they could just fly Air China direct from IAH to PEK? If it is the later then maybe they could be part of the picture, but I can't remember if they were doing that or just flying from KUL to PEK then either staying in PEK or if they were just returning to the USA from KUL via PEK...
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NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 6:44 am

Short video here describing the new information. It says that the aeroplane 'went off-line' very early in the flight, and is thought to have turned west.. It ALSO says that the first Inmarsat 'ping' was not picked up until six HOURS later.........

Can't make head nor tail of it myself, as so often we'll just have to wait for more information.......

http://news.sky.com/story/1269608/mi...ight-mh370-satellite-data-released

[Edited 2014-05-26 23:58:33]
 
NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 7:13 am

Another vid - interview with an Inmarsat guy who apparently 'played a leading role.' Doesn't exactly fill you with confidence..........

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/05/27/world/asia/malaysia-missing-plane/
 
jox
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 7:16 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 76):
It ALSO says that the first Inmarsat 'ping' was not picked up until six HOURS later.........

NO!! it does NOT say it was the *first* ping, six hours later. Actually it was the *last* ping (but the announcer doesn't say that).
 
NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 7:28 am

Quoting jox (Reply 78):
NO!! it does NOT say it was the *first* ping, six hours later.

To be fair, jox, that's exactly what the first presenter says - 'six hours later.' The Inmarsat guy in the second interview doesn't really provide ANY hard information on pings?

[Edited 2014-05-27 00:32:54]
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 9:11 am

Interesting... The precision of the Burst Timing Offset (BTO) looks pretty good: 20 microseconds. This would give an error band of only +/- ~3 nm.
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 9:37 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 77):
Another vid - interview with an Inmarsat guy who apparently 'played a leading role.' Doesn't exactly fill you with confidence..........

People can say what they like, but I have never had confidence in anything Inmarsat has said from day 1 and have always had the belief that Inmarast could be wrong - for various reasons...
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FLY744
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 10:14 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 81):
People can say what they like, but I have never had confidence in anything Inmarsat has said from day 1 and have always had the belief that Inmarast could be wrong - for various reasons...

I think you need to state those "various reasons" if your post is going to have any value.
Aviation in itself is not inherently dangerous.
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 10:26 am

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 80):
Interesting... The precision of the Burst Timing Offset (BTO) looks pretty good: 20 microseconds. This would give an error band of only +/- ~3 nm.

That is the error band based on the timer resolution. In addition, you have to take into account other uncertainties, resulting in an error band of only +/- 10 km, according to the ATSB document.
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 10:26 am

Quoting FLY744 (Reply 82):
Quoting 777Jet (Reply 81):
People can say what they like, but I have never had confidence in anything Inmarsat has said from day 1 and have always had the belief that Inmarast could be wrong - for various reasons...

I think you need to state those "various reasons" if your post is going to have any value.

I have in other threads.

But, to please those who forgot / did not read / etc / and to keep it short in case this post gets quoted and then del thus ending up as a waste of time:

1- Inmarsat could be wrong because they are simply wrong.
2- Inmarast could be intentionally misleading because they are doing as they are told.

[Edited 2014-05-27 03:29:01]
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jetsetter1969
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 10:29 am

Mandala i was not implying a sytem without circuit protection but one that cant be isolated by the crew. At the end of the day the authorities and the industry have to do what they can to prevent a reoccurance and yes we would not want a knee jerk reaction.

Also just found this on the news about satellite tracking all aircraft

in part it says " Ahead of the two-day meeting, the ICAO asked industry groups for a complete list of technologies that might be useful to the airline sector.

Twenty-two companies, including Globalstar and Rockwell Collins, responded to the call.
"The responses received so far to the ICAO questionnaire showed that there are existing commercial off-the-shelf solutions providing global coverage for hardware costs under USD $100,000," said the ICAO

British satellite operator Inmarsat has also offered a basic tracking service to all of the world's passenger airlines free of charge.

here is the link
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/201...ing-mh370-prompts-tracking-rethink

Cheers
Dave
 
NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 10:38 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 84):
1- Inmarsat could be wrong because they are simply wrong.
2- Inmarast could be intentionally misleading because they are doing as they are told.

Just 'instinct' so far, 777jet, but I think we may have moved on to "3. Inmarsat are 'covering their tracks,' and deluging us with pages of obscure figures, because they stuffed up from the beginning."

I'm not young, so I might not live to see the end of the controversy. But on the age-old basis - 'reductio ad absurdum,' , 'keep it stupidly simple' - I suspect that we may one day find that MH370 'went in' way to the north, just after all the systems failed, less than an hour after take-off.

[Edited 2014-05-27 04:19:53]
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 10:44 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 86):
"3. Inmarsat are 'covering their tracks,' and deluging us with pages of obscure figures, because they stuffed up from the beginning."

But why?

Did they accidentally stuff up? Was the unproven methodology used to guesstimate that MH370 is on the Southern Arc inaccurate / wrong? Or, did they intentionally release wrong information because they were told to?
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 10:51 am

Crossed with yours, 777Jet. But yes, given that there was no radio (or radar?) contact with MH370 after about 40 minutes, it has to be very 'possible' that it 'went in' at that time.

Could have been mechanical problems, could have been sabotage (a bomb?), or a stuffed-up hijack? Could even have been pilot suicide, though I doubt that.

[Edited 2014-05-27 03:56:11]
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 10:57 am

Quote:
Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 80):
Interesting... The precision of the Burst Timing Offset (BTO) looks pretty good: 20 microseconds. This would give an error band of only +/- ~3 nm.


Quoting Finn: That is the error band based on the timer resolution. In addition, you have to take into account other uncertainties, resulting in an error band of only +/- 10 km, according to the ATSB document.

The +/- 10 km is probably a conservative 2 or 3 sigma IMO. In practical terms, it's probably more accurate than that. The LOPs I've seen drawn near the Kuala Lumpur airport when the position of the a/c was known were quite close. Of course the calculation of the radius is also a function of the plane's altitude: e.g., a plane at 40,000 feet could have a LOP radius of 2606 nm, but with the same timing at zero altitude, the radius would be 2600. So that could be where they get the +/- 10 nm right there. In practice, the altitude is constrained by the speed, so if we have a good idea that the a/c was at cruising altitudes and speeds, we should expect better accuracy than 10 nm IMHO.

Unfortunately, it looks to me like we're no better off with the release of this raw data: it's too raw to understand without more reverse engineering!

1. They're telling us the roundtrip signal consists of 4 trips into space and back. A 1-way signal to the satellite is on the order of 1/8 of a second. Therefore, total roundtrip time should be on order of 1/2 second.

2. Then there is a processing time that is constant, but they don't tell us what that is.

3. Then we're given a BTO value in microseconds that seemingly has no relation to the actual speed of light travel times: e.g., for the 24:11 ping ring we are given 18,040 microseconds = 0.01804 seconds, far shorter than the actual travel times.

4. The BTO is supposed to be "relative to a terminal at a nominal fixed location", but which terminal and what nominal fixed location?!?

I must confess to being thoroughly confused at this point. Maybe someone else can make sense of this.

All I want is the 1-way travel time for the satellite to aircraft. With that it is a relatively simple matter of geometry to derive the radius of the ping ring LOP from the subsatellite point.



[Edited 2014-05-27 04:26:10]
 
nomadd22
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 11:11 am

Quoting rwessel (Reply 1):
It was never an angle from the satellite. The "ping", basically the round trip time of a signal from the satellite to the satcom transceiver, and its response back, establishes the distance between the satellite and the satcom transceiver. This is because the speed of light is fixed, and Inmarsat (apparently) has a good handle on the latency the transciver has on the return signal, and how accurate the satellite is in measuring those things.

The ping packets look like they contain BFO data, so they can be used to figure the angle if you assume a speed by figuring doppler. You wouldn't get much from one ping because of AFC and frequency drift on the remote transmitter, but you can use a bunch of them to get a decent pattern.

These system handshakes are actually all they'd need to track planes with a small change. I'm not familiar with airline equipment, but handshaking signals with Inmarsat and others often include GPS data so the remote end can be assigned a timeslot on the shared channel.

[Edited 2014-05-27 04:41:57]
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 11:40 am

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 89):
3. Then we're given a BTO value in microseconds that seemingly has no relation to the actual speed of light travel times: e.g., for the 24:11 ping ring we are given 18,040 microseconds = 0.01804 seconds, far shorter than the actual travel times.

As I understand it, BTO is an offset, not the actual travel time. That raises the question of offset from what?

Regarding uncertainty, position at KUL most likely has been used to calibrate the offsets to get as accurate results as possible, so we cannot directly deduce the accuracy based on the known flight path and ping rings related to it.

Edit: And I suppose the travel time has to be calculated from the timestamp differences of the queries and replies. Both th offsets (BTO and BFO) are related to the inaccuracy of the transmission time & frequency.

[Edited 2014-05-27 05:16:11]
 
Backseater
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 11:52 am

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 89):
The +/- 10 km is probably a conservative 2 or 3 sigma IMO

I estimate the standard deviation of the a/c range measurement to be 5kms (based upon the 46 first R-channel BTOs)

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 89):
I must confess to being thoroughly confused at this point

It looks like you are going to have to reverse engineer the location of Inmarsat "virtual" fixed terminal.
At least you can verify the relative position of the rings.
 
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 11:55 am

Quote:
Quoting rwessel (Reply 1):
It was never an angle from the satellite. The "ping", basically the round trip time of a signal from the satellite to the satcom transceiver, and its response back, establishes the distance between the satellite and the satcom transceiver.

To review the geometry of determining the LOP radii, check out this diagram:

http://i.imgur.com/Llb6YiM.png

A is the satellite, B is the center of the Earth, and C is the aircraft flying at some altitude above the surface of the Earth. What we are interested in is the angle β, since β/360 * Earth's circumfrence = the ping ring radius.

Thus, if we know the lengths of the sides of the triangle, we can solve for β. Thus:

c = distance from center of Earth to 3F1
a = distance from center of Earth to 9M-MRO
b = distance from 9M-MRO to 3F1

We know c and a: what we want from Inmarsat is b. And for that all we need is the 1-way travel time--that we don't have. But if we did then we simply apply the law of cosines:

β = acos[(b2 - a2 - c2) / (2ac)]
 
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 12:19 pm

The ATSB also said for the first time that the search area intersects the only air route that passes down through the southeastern Indian Ocean, route M641, which travels from Cocos Island to Perth through four way points.

The overlap of the Cocos-Perth air route and search area may be a coincidence, with investigators still unsure about the plane's navigation during its final hours. Air routes are preprogrammed into flight computers and can be navigated without human intervention, raising the possibility that none of the crew were conscious when the plane crashed.

WSJ article: Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 Likely Ran Out of Fuel, Report Says
 
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 12:21 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 93):
β = acos[(b2 - a2 - c2) / (2ac)]

Sorry, not picking on you, WarrenPlatts - but where are we going on all this?

We have a 'case' where an aeroplane flying north-east past Vietnam went off-air. Opinions from there are divided. I reckon that it probably crashed - others think that it went on flying, turned north-west, and then south-west, and finally south.

But virtually the whole discussion is not on that subject, but on the performance of the various 'navigation aids'.........?

Flew a bit myself, and the aids were just that - 'aids'......... Often enough one used them, but you never depended on them. And, above all, you had to make sure that you DIDN'T depend on them.

Virtually all the discussion seems to be centred on how the latest gimmick (Inmarsat) was performing?

Whereas the question we really have to answer is, is there ANY possibility that a good crew (highly-experienced Captain, 'up-and-coming' First Officer), flying north-east on a scheduled flight, suddenly turned north-west, and then south-west, and finally due south, while maintaining 'Battle of Britain-style' radio silence..........? Placing all their faith in what, on the face of it, is a 'new-fangled' (and very possibly 'short-lived') flight-management aid?

And then left it to fly them more than halfway to Antarctica?

I don't think Inmarsat caused the accident - indeed I don't think it even contributed to it. But can we PLEASE (at least a few of us) get back to discussing what caused the accident, and how any future events of the same kind can be prevented?

[Edited 2014-05-27 05:25:40]
 
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 12:51 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 95):
But can we PLEASE (at least a few of us) get back to discussing what caused the accident, and how any future events of the same kind can be prevented?

In case you missed it, the main gist of this thread is usually for people who have invested a lot of time studying this case to search for/analyze/dissect data so that models that can be built from which deductions can be made that meet at least some of the observations and therefore can help validate/invalidate possible scenarios.

If your premise is to throw just about every piece of data that exist so that you can more easily invent scenarios for a crash in the south China sea I suggest that you first search for evidence (hint: Utapao, debris off the coast of Vietnam, oil rig, ...), analyze what you have found for a few days, imagine ways to explain why the other data should be refuted and if by then, you have a model that you believe is plausible, write one post to present it.
Thank you for your future effort.
 
NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 12:56 pm

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 96):
If your premise is to throw just about every piece of data that exist so that you can more easily invent scenarios for a crash in the south China sea I suggest that you first search for evidence

As you'll see above, BackSeater, on the principle of 'Keep It Stupidly Sensible', I rather favour the view that the aeroplane had a problem east of Vietnam, and crashed there and then, only about an hour out. But thanks for responding 'on topic.'

[Edited 2014-05-27 06:01:29]
 
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 1:01 pm

Quoting NAV30:
Whereas the question we really have to answer is, is there ANY possibility that a good crew ... [p]lacing all their faith in what, on the face of it, is a 'new-fangled' (and very possibly 'short-lived') flight-management aid?

Sir, I believe there is a misunderstanding: the Inmarsat handshakes or "pings" that were used to generate the circular lines of position are not navigation aids, and were certainly not used by the flight crew for any reason. They probably didn't even know about them.

Rather, the pings are a post hoc means of determining the distance of the aircraft from the subsatellite points at various points in time--the pings were never a real-time navigation aid.

Thus, it is evident that the plane was "alive" for a full 7.5 hours after takeoff, and that the plane must have flown in a westerly direction followed by either a northerly or southern route. She likely flamed out at 00:19 UTC March 8, and then glided for an unknown number of miles until the crash. Thus, the crash site must be somewhere close to the final ping ring that's approximately 4914.7 km from the 00:19 subsatellite point for the 3F1 satellite. The only question is where.

Assuming of course that Inmarsat got their numbers right. We still cannot independently check their math; however, they have assured us that they did controls, and the 18:27 ping ring is consistent with the Butterworth radar track, so I still have faith in them. But it is faith, I admit.
 
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 1:12 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 98):
Thus, it is evident that the plane was "alive" for a full 7.5 hours after takeoff, and that the plane must have flown in a westerly direction followed by either a northerly or southern route.

I'd agree that it's 'possible,' WarrenPlatts. But hardly 'evident'?

For that to happen, the crew (highly -experienced captain, capable FO) would have had to turn west, then south-west, then south - all the time maintaining total radio silence? A one-way ticket to the unemployment queue?

Much more likely, in my view (having done the job in my Army days) that the radar guys got it wrong, and tracked a different aeroplane (or aeroplanes)?
 
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 1:17 pm

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 94):
The ATSB also said for the first time that the search area intersects the only air route that passes down through the southeastern Indian Ocean, route M641, which travels from Cocos Island to Perth through four way points.

There are swarms of named air routes in the south east Indian Ocean (M640 highlighted below):

http://i.imgur.com/nkzT6FL.png

The problem is that it is impossible as far as I can see to reconstruct a plausible waypoint path to IKASA (the closest waypoint to the current search area) while maintaining plausible ground speeds.
 
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 1:25 pm

Quoting NAV30:
For that to happen, the crew (highly -experienced captain, capable FO) would have had to turn west, then south-west, then south - all the time maintaining total radio silence? A one-way ticket to the unemployment queue?

Much more likely, in my view (having done the job in my Army days) that the radar guys got it wrong, and tracked a different aeroplane (or aeroplanes)?

Having fooled around with radar a bit in my Navy days, I agree that it can be tricky to identify contacts. However, the thing is the aircraft did not maintain Battle of Britain radio silence: it was communicating with a radio, unbeknownst to whoever was piloting, with the Inmarsat satellite 3F1 and the Perth(?) ground station. This went on for 7 1/2 hours after takeoff. I guess one could dispute the location of the various ping rings, but that there were communications coming from the 9M-MRO would seem to be pretty indisputible IMHO.

Taking either data set alone--the radar or the Inmarsat "pings"--I can see why you might be skeptical. However, the two data sets agree with each other and thus reinforce each other. We would need good reasons for disregarding them both IMO.
 
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Tue May 27, 2014 1:30 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts;- The problem is that it is impossible as far as I can see to reconstruct a plausible waypoint path to IKASA (the closest waypoint to the current search area) while maintaining plausible ground speeds.

Have to accept that that's mostly Australia's fault, as far as I can tell.

In my view any such flight would be 'heroic,' really. Flying a big aeroplane due south, into the open sea, with just about NO fuel reserves worth mentioning...............

But the Aussie Government appears to have 'fallen for it,'
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