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747megatop
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 12:43 am

Quoting bcworld (Reply 199):
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/05/28/wo...lines-pinging/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Navy official: Pings not thought to be from Flight 370's black boxes

Needless to say back to square 1. We are no better off in finding the wreckage than we were on day 1 when this whole saga began. This might very well turn out to be the 1st case in aviation history where 200+ people vanished without a trace and will never be found unless of course we have a cluster of unmanned under sea submersibles that can scour every bit of the southern Indian ocean with a brute force approach.
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 12:51 am

Quoting bcworld (Reply 199):
Navy official: Pings not thought to be from Flight 370's black boxes

Wow... Don't know what to say. But I'm not surprised... I always had my doubts. Hearing the sounds pretty much straight away seemed too good, way too good, to be true...

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 200):
Needless to say back to square 1. We are no better off in finding the wreckage than we were on day 1 when this whole saga began. This might very well turn out to be the 1st case in aviation history where 200+ people vanished without a trace and will never be found unless of course we have a cluster of unmanned under sea submersibles that can scour every bit of the southern Indian ocean with a brute force approach.

True to that. It might very well require a brute force approach - funded by Malaysia   - or it will never be found. Maybe that was the intention if it was actually taken...

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 195):
Wonder what that guy on the life raft would say if he were to be rescued and got a chance to read these threads.

It would be a fascinating story and whoever they were would makes millions...
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dtw2hyd
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 1:15 am

Now that US NAVY came out clean, it is AAIB, NTSB and Boeing's turn. I am really interested to know how much analysis/review they did and what were their conclusions. I think they were reeled in by Malaysia and it was too late to get out.
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 1:24 am

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 202):

I am surprised regarding how little has been said by Boeing. Is there a possibility that Boeing has more information than we know - information indicating that this was not a fault of the 777 so in a sense Boeing is just sitting back without a care in the world. Or, on the contrary, information indication the 777 was at fault so they are remaining silent knowing that if the plane is never found it can't be blamed? Either way, I'm just surprised at how silent Boeing has been - that's all...
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PlanesNTrains
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 1:41 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 203):
I am surprised regarding how little has been said by Boeing. Is there a possibility that Boeing has more information than we know - information indicating that this was not a fault of the 777 so in a sense Boeing is just sitting back without a care in the world. Or, on the contrary, information indication the 777 was at fault so they are remaining silent knowing that if the plane is never found it can't be blamed? Either way, I'm just surprised at how silent Boeing has been - that's all...

The way I see it:

1. They are not the lead investigators so realistically shouldn't be saying much of anything directly to the press.
2. They have very little to gain and a lot to lose by opening their trap.
3. Why even put their name in the news on something like a missing plane? Unless dragged into it kicking and screaming, I'd think the best approach for them at this stage from a PR perspective would be "What 777?"

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
FLY744
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 1:45 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 203):
Either way, I'm just surprised at how silent Boeing has been - that's all...

Can I suggest that you read ICAO Annex 13 before you make any more statements such as this. I think you will find that all parties are very constrained in what they can say by that Annex.
Aviation in itself is not inherently dangerous.
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 2:08 am

Quoting FLY744 (Reply 205):
Quoting 777Jet (Reply 203):
Either way, I'm just surprised at how silent Boeing has been - that's all...

Can I suggest that you read ICAO Annex 13 before you make any more statements such as this. I think you will find that all parties are very constrained in what they can say by that Annex.

I have. And, my opinion hasn't changed. Regards.
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nupogodi
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 2:53 am

Quoting bcworld (Reply 199):
Navy official: Pings not thought to be from Flight 370's black boxes

Well yes they can say that now that they've imaged the entire sea floor within the possible range of the pingers!

If not MH370, what the hell was it? You all saw the same time-frequency-amplitude chart I did. That was manmade, whatever it was.

Tangential to the question at hand, to be sure, but still another mystery... or maybe just a mystery for us.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 3:15 am

Quoting bcworld (Reply 199):
Navy official: Pings not thought to be from Flight 370's black boxes

Exactly what I said a long time ago. A little googling revealed that 33 kHz is the common frequency used by echolocators and fish finders for those depths. What is really ironic is that they may have heard their own echolocator....
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 3:21 am

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 202):
Now that US NAVY came out clean, it is AAIB, NTSB and Boeing's turn. I am really interested to know how much analysis/review they did and what were their conclusions. I think they were reeled in by Malaysia and it was too late to get out.

In all fairness, they had to play that hand out. Yes, they went "all in". And they lost their shorts. But given the hand they were dealt, the proper thing to do was go all in. Now it's pretty clear that a new search area needs to be identified, but I, for one, do not blame anyone for searching the latest search area. What I really admire is the willingness to reassess.
 
mandala499
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 3:21 am

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 195):
In your opinion is the Inmarsat satellite data and the subsequent analysis by them solid enough to rule out the following

1) a track due west towards Africa (flying South of Srilanka in a westerly direction)?
2) a track east of Malaysia out into the Pacific Ocean? Would have had to fly over some land though before being over the open Pacific (at least over the southern tip of Philippines without detection).

What i am getting at in other words is, in your opinion, how reliable is the conclusion that the aircraft ended up somewhere in the Southern Indian Ocean off Perth based on Inmarsat's analysis OR are the search authorities looking totally in the wrong place?

Number 2 is not possible based on the Inmarsat data. It's not dismissed because of the ping rings, but by the simple fact that 1-2 hours to the east/north east from where it disappeared, the aircraft would require a switch of satellite from the Indian Ocean Inmarsat-3 to the Pacific Ocean Inmarsat-3. Those "Inmarsat Raw data" would then show a different satellite identifier in the log.
Anyone who does not believe the ping rings by now should at least accept the fact that it went down somewhere within the Indian Ocean region Inmarsat-3 satellite, constrained by the aircraft's endurance.... which was something concluded within the first 2 weeks of the accident.
NAV30, I hope you read this.

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 196):
Too bad we cannot reliably find out which radars were powered up that fateful night and if so what they detected. If we could, I believe we might be able to discriminate between piloted or non piloted flight.

It won't be revealed to anyone. Subsequent "backdoor inquiries" over here have been met with a wall of silence, even with the talkative ones... that does not mean we're detecting something and covering it up... it simply means, we don't want anyone to know whether it was on or off that night.
Ironically, the Sabang PSR caught a US military contract flight once and asked for it to land in Banda Aceh or Medan... which to us Indonesians was "WTH? it was on????"   

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 198):
At this stage, I think both options are plausible, and we don't have enough to take a strong stance in support of either.

Indeed. I now rely on morphing Pihero's and WarrenPlatt's theories together to come up with possible explanations on certain aspects of the "resultant theory"   
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
LTC8K6
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 3:30 am

Quoting bcworld (Reply 199):

Navy official: Pings not thought to be from Flight 370's black boxes

This news was in the media on 5/21...

I posted articles here and elsewhere.
 
NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 3:58 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 210):
Anyone who does not believe the ping rings by now should at least accept the fact that it went down somewhere within the Indian Ocean region Inmarsat-3 satellite, constrained by the aircraft's endurance.... which was something concluded within the first 2 weeks of the accident.
NAV30, I hope you read this.

Sure - I have time to read everything!  

But I stand by my view that the aeroplane crashed in the South China Sea, about 40 minutes after taking off. That is when EVERYTHING closed down. That's where the relevant authorities started to search. But they only searched with a couple of ships for a few days; then stopped because Inmarsat came up with their 'flew west-flew south' theory.

I'm pretty sure that that location (in the open sea, north-east of Malaysia and quite close to Vietnam) is where they'll eventually find MH370.

[Edited 2014-05-28 21:01:36]
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 4:23 am

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 208):
echolocators and fish finders for those depths

That is indeed the frequency I most often use for fish finding at 4000 m depths when 1000 km from the nearest coast.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 212):
But I stand by my view that the aeroplane crashed in the South China Sea, about 40 minutes after taking off.

You'll have to provide a reasonable theory of why the satcom box mounted in the airplane was a) powered and b) continued to transact two-way radio signals with a satellite for another 7 hours after the "crash". Otherwise you're just standing by your view that the sun rises in the West. Dismissed!
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 4:30 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 212):
But I stand by my view that the aeroplane crashed in the South China Sea, about 40 minutes after taking off.

You're growing senile, old man.

The SATCOM terminal uniquely registered to that particular aircraft was responding way past 40 minutes.

Sometimes I can't even believe what goes on in here. No one understands how the burst frequency offset thing is calculated (terminal vs. orbital position of sat, shift due to assumed position and actual position). No one understands anything about this and they flap flap flap their mouths.

Now we're talking about falsifying the pings from Inmarsat's ground station? From someone on the ground, or maybe on a similar aricraft?

This thread grows more fantastical by the day. You all need to check yourselves. This is ridiculous. I'd sooner believe they made it to the moon.

[Edited 2014-05-28 21:31:25]
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 4:37 am

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 213):
You'll have to provide a reasonable theory of why the satcom box mounted in the airplane was a) powered and b) continued to transact two-way radio signals with a satellite for another 7 hours after the "crash".

Surely, first of all, Inmarsat has to prove that they were using the right frequency and didn't just pick up the wrong aeroplane (or aeroplanes), WingedMigrator?

I find this interesting? An odd time for Malaysia to thank Vietnam for 'finding' MH370 over the South China Sea, don't you think?

"The Malaysian Department of Civil Aviation (DCA) has expressed its thanks for Vietnam’s search efforts for the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam said Thursday.

"The appreciation was extended in a response document the DCA has sent to CAAV in regard of the doomed Boeing 777, which vanished while flying from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing on March 8 with 239 people on board, CAAV chief Lai Xuan Thanh told Tuoi Tre.

"The points of time when air traffic controllers lost contact of MH370, when it vanished off radar and when Vietnamese and Malaysian air traffic controllers exchanged information over the missing plane are detailed in the document, Thanh added.

"DCA thanked Vietnam for exerting efforts to organize and participate in search missions for the missing jetliner.

"The document mentions nothing about the allegation that Vietnamese air traffic controllers were tardy in contacting their Malaysian counterparts when the plane vanished from radar screens."


http://tuoitrenews.vn/international/...s-vietnam-for-mh370-search-efforts
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 5:24 am

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 209):
What I really admire is the willingness to reassess.

I guess at the end of the day they have no choice. But... the longer this goes on, the less we hear about it, and IMO the less pressure there will be. Some 'big' story will eventually happen in the news and take people's minds of MH370 (except for those with friends / relatives on board / interests / etc.)... The 'relax' that one poster predicted back in something like thread 10 (that I agreed would happen but others said would be impossible to happen) has already set in...

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 210):
the Inmarsat data.

Ahhh, the mighty Inmarsat data. And, where has that gotten us so far? I have always doubted it. I'm not saying it's wrong - the plane could very well be in an area close to where the Inmarsat data suggests - but it also might not be.

Now that the underwater search is on hold and the Inmarsat data is being re-checked, I would hope that the Australian authorities pass the ball back to Malaysia as there is no proof that the Inmarsat data can conclude that the plane actually went down in Australia's SAR area and because MH370 remains Malaysia's problem. I'm sure Aussie pensioners would have no problem if tax payer money stopped getting wasted on a wild goose chase until the location of the goose became a bit more certain... I'm glad the authorities have the common sense to reassess...
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LovesCoffee
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 6:00 am

CNN has just posted a story titled

"Search area for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 'can now be discounted'"

here.

This would appear to cast some doubt on the Inmarsat conclusions as to the location of the airplane.

[Edited 2014-05-28 23:03:27]
Life is too short for cheap coffee.
 
mandala499
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 6:06 am

I just had a look again at the Inmarsat data logs... My view on the Inmarsat data logs show that:
- There was a good hour of missing satcom link to the aircraft at 17:07 and the system was logged on again at 18:25.
-- Simply put, the aircraft satcom did not respond to queries sent by the ground system.
-- All the communications logged here are from the P channel, and T channel, no R channel (which is the satellite's receiving channel).
-- This indicates that the satcom on the aircraft was not working during this time.
-- Either the aircraft was upside down during this time, or there was a AC power failure onboard.
-- A simple navigation problem would have resulted in the satcom link not being lost but simply reverting to the back up satcom link antenna. The HGA would lose contact due to the lack of ARINC429 feed, but the LGA would still be working with no doppler correction.
-- What is difficult to understand is that what happens from 17:07 an 17:21 when the transponers went off. This needs a further look into.

- The final handshake was previously thought as the aircraft suffering from fuel exhaustion given the following:
-- This requires a failure of power supply resulting from the electrical generator on the left engine, and that power was then restored as the system switches to the generator from the right engine.
-- The final handshake process was quickly followed by silence.
-- Putting the time of occurence with the fuel load, it is now more likely than before that this was a result of fuel exhaustion of the aircraft.
-- This would require the log on request to be first detected on the R channel, but in this case it's from the P channel.
-- HOWEVER, the information released shows that the final handshake was initiated by the ground, not by the aircraft, so this makes it unlikely that fuel exhaustion was the trigger for this handshake.

From the data, it does look like there is a possibility that this may not be foul play at all and that it could be a mishap of an electrical sort that resulted in a cascading of failures of the communications system as per Pihero's theory, and that the crew may have been planning to divert to Penang, but was overwhelmed by something that resulted in them not ending up in Penang and ending up going elsewhere, under control or not. This is indicated by the radar plot that they did not go straight towards Penang, but seems towards navigational waypoints normally used in the arrivals into Penang from the north west.
Further, this seems to be backed up by the lack of response from the aircraft's satcom between 17:07 and 18:25 and aircraft initiated log-on at 18:25, which is before the tranponder going offline, until after the aircraft disappeared from military radar,

---

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 88):
As I understand it, BTO is an offset, not the actual travel time. That raises the question of offset from what?

Don't know if this answers it... but from Tim Farrar's site:
The GES transmits to the AES over the P channel & receives over the R channel. The initial response burst on the R channel is the timing datum transmitted by the AES ±300 μs of receiving the incoming frame on the P channel. All very deterministic to give us the range to AES from satellite using the Round Trip Timing.

And now...

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 212):
But I stand by my view that the aeroplane crashed in the South China Sea, about 40 minutes after taking off. That is when EVERYTHING closed down. That's where the relevant authorities started to search. But they only searched with a couple of ships for a few days; then stopped because Inmarsat came up with their 'flew west-flew south' theory.

Again, the newly released satcom data revealed that the aircraft satcom went dead between 17:07 and 18:25, and was on since, until the last one at 00:19.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 212):
I'm pretty sure that that location (in the open sea, north-east of Malaysia and quite close to Vietnam) is where they'll eventually find MH370. That's where the relevant authorities started to search. But they only searched with a couple of ships for a few days; then stopped because Inmarsat came up with their 'flew west-flew south' theory.

I am pretty sure that you're wrong, and I am pretty sure you did not understand what went on for the first week or two and I am pretty sure that you don't understand why they decided to change the search area to the Indian ocean. I am also sure that you are grossly underestimating the extent of the search that was done over over the first week. I am also certain that you either do not, or you are deliberately ignorant and deliberately refuse to even consider the validity of the Inmarsat data. This is shown by:

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 215):
Surely, first of all, Inmarsat has to prove that they were using the right frequency and didn't just pick up the wrong aeroplane (or aeroplanes), WingedMigrator?

OK, I suggest you look at the first page of: http://www.dca.gov.my/mainpage/MH370%20Data%20Communication%20Logs.pdf

Where it says the message logs include the AES ID, that is the aircraft earth station identification, that is the satellite terminal identification, such as a USIM, or IMEI. It's just like the identification of your mobile phone by the network. It's not done by frequency, but done by identification, as the frequency is shared under time division multiple access.

Please understand it, try to understand this, or simply leave the discussion because you are just sabotaging the whole topic by unethical trolling conduct.
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
chrisrad
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 6:06 am

Quoting LovesCoffee (Reply 217):
CNN has just posted a story titled

"Search area for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 'can now be discounted'"

here.

This would appear to cast some doubt on the Inmarsat conclusions as to the location of the airplane.

Following in from that:
MH370 not in Indian Ocean search zone: ATSB

http://www.theage.com.au/national/mh...arch-zone-atsb-20140529-396ml.html

The missing Malaysia Airlines plane is not in the Indian Ocean search zone where acoustic "pings" were detected, search co-ordinators have confirmed.

"The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) has advised that the search in the vicinity of the acoustic detections can now be considered complete and in its professional judgment, the area can now be discounted as the final resting place of MH370," the Joint Agency Co-ordination Centre said on Thursday.
Welcome aboard Malaysia Airlines! Winner of Best Cabin Staff 2001,2002,2003,2004,2007,2009,2012
 
NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 6:07 am

Thanks, LovesCoffee. Looks like a full-scale 'wind-down' and 'cover-up' is now in progress.

Trouble is, as 777Jet says, such efforts usually succeed, overtaken by other news. Guess we won't hear much more about MH370 from now on.........

[Edited 2014-05-28 23:18:52]
 
Skydrol
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 6:21 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 220):
Looks like a full-scale 'wind-down' and 'cover-up' is now in progress.

Trouble is, as 777Jet says, such efforts usually succeed, overtaken by other news. Guess we won't hear much more about MH370 from now on.........

And how are the MH370 passengers' families to deal with this?

So much of this 64-part thread has been centered on 'I am right and you are wrong, and I am going to make it my mission to prove it', that the people affected are losing the spotlight, which should be theirs! Forget about aircraft enthusiasts here, the families need, and deserve to find out what really happened, in attempt to carry on with their lives and grieving / healing process...





LD4
∙ ---{--« ∙ ----{--« ∙ --{-« ∙ ---{--« ∙ --{--« ∙ --{-« ∙ ----{--« ∙
 
NAV30
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 6:38 am

Quoting Skydrol (Reply 221):
And how are the MH370 passengers' families to deal with this?

I'm anything but 'indifferent' to that side of it, Skydrol. If you've followed the discussion, I can at least claim that I was the first person (for a long time the only person) on here to maintain that MH370 crashed only a hundred nms. or so from Vietnam, rather than on the other side of the world. It will always 'haunt' me that if prompt action had been taken, some of the people on board might have been rescued.

But it wasn't to be..............

[Edited 2014-05-29 00:00:58]
 
LovesCoffee
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 6:41 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 218):
From the data, it does look like there is a possibility that this may not be foul play at all and that it could be a mishap of an electrical sort that resulted in a cascading of failures of the communications system as per Pihero's theory, and that the crew may have been planning to divert to Penang, but was overwhelmed by something that resulted in them not ending up in Penang and ending up going elsewhere, under control or not. This is indicated by the radar plot that they did not go straight towards Penang, but seems towards navigational waypoints normally used in the arrivals into Penang from the north west.
Further, this seems to be backed up by the lack of response from the aircraft's satcom between 17:07 and 18:25 and aircraft initiated log-on at 18:25, which is before the tranponder going offline, until after the aircraft disappeared from military radar,

Assume for a minute that this is true. What would have caused the satcom system to come back on at 18:25 and attempt the aircraft initiated log on? With all other comms (including cell and satellite phones) staying off? And then the satcom stayed active for several more hours?
Life is too short for cheap coffee.
 
Backseater
Posts: 478
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 6:56 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 210):
It won't be revealed to anyone. Subsequent "backdoor inquiries" over here have been met with a wall of silence, even with the talkative ones... that does not mean we're detecting something and covering it up... it simply means, we don't want anyone to know whether it was on or off that night.

From "Thomson TRS-2215/TRS-2230: Radar Andalan Pertahanan Udara RI Era 80-an" translation dated 07/09/2013

Quote:
What about the operational readiness of radar systems ? What is the radar operates continuously in 24 hours? Collected from Traffic Report Work Alumni House Commission I Banten Province in 2011 ( 11 April 2011 ) , referred to the Unit Radar ( Satrad ) 211 in Tanjungkait only operate radar for 18 hours in a day .

What is really too bad, is that no one is trying to determine how many hours per day Sabang radar is operational. Intel people can and probably routinely do that very easily using LEOs ( 1MW pulses can be heard very, very far!).
If it was off for whatever reason, the Indonesian military could easily have said "Gee, that's too bad, Sabang 233 was undergoing maintenance that night". Then Sabang disappears from path/altitude constraints we are trying to deal with.
 
sipadan
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 7:02 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 218):
Further, this seems to be backed up by the lack of response from the aircraft's satcom between 17:07 and 18:25 and aircraft initiated log-on at 18:25, which is before the tranponder going offline, until after the aircraft disappeared from military radar,

Mandala, you lost me here...You say an "aircraft initiated log-on occurred at 18:25, which is BEFORE the transponder going offine". Didn't the transponder go offline at 17:22-23.? Maybe I'm confused, h
have my terminology mixed up, or maybe typo??

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 218):
-- HOWEVER, the information released shows that the final handshake was initiated by the ground, not by the aircraft, so this makes it unlikely that fuel exhaustion was the trigger for this handshake.

Are you sure of this? This is a pretty jaw-dropping piece of info that we are JUST NOW learning about. Why would the ground station be trying to contact the aircraft at this time...I'm lost in the wilderness now.
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 7:10 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 218):
From the data, it does look like there is a possibility that this may not be foul play at all and that it could be a mishap of an electrical sort that resulted in a cascading of failures of the communications system as per Pihero's theory, and that the crew may have been planning to divert to Penang, but was overwhelmed by something that resulted in them not ending up in Penang and ending up going elsewhere, under control or not. This is indicated by the radar plot that they did not go straight towards Penang, but seems towards navigational waypoints normally used in the arrivals into Penang from the north west.

If they used navigational waypoints normally used in the arrivals into Penang, why would they fly at cruise altitude through those waypoints? It doesn't make sense (in the sense of a logical scenario, as hardly anything makes sense regarding this disappearance).
 
YoungMans
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 7:11 am

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 214):
You're growing senile, old man.

Just because you, at your age, still have to toe the line what the Powers-that-Be dictate to you, doesn't mean that someone with a little more life experience is growing senile.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 218):
-- This indicates that the satcom on the aircraft was not working during this time.
-- Either the aircraft was upside down during this time, or there was a AC power failure onboard.

Or else..,
and I'm very sorry Mandala499 to kind of putting it on the table like this,
... the aircraft was shot down and an sophisticated electronics lab, on a ship or somewhere else, took over and started communicating in its stead. The signals were then timed and designed to indicate a track out to the Indian Ocean. (...to confuse WP ...)

If that were somehow the case, all the little details that just don't want to fit now, would all slot into place.

Then again....
The last paragraph in the first part of your post makes a lot of sense too.
And I ought to leave it at that ...

[Edited 2014-05-29 00:15:42]
 
chrisrad
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 7:16 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 218):
-- HOWEVER, the information released shows that the final handshake was initiated by the ground, not by the aircraft, so this makes it unlikely that fuel exhaustion was the trigger for this handshake.

Can you eloborate on this????????
Welcome aboard Malaysia Airlines! Winner of Best Cabin Staff 2001,2002,2003,2004,2007,2009,2012
 
LovesCoffee
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 7:30 am

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 227):
Or else..,
and I'm very sorry Mandala499 to kind of putting it on the table like this,
... the aircraft was shot down and an sophisticated electronics lab, on a ship or somewhere else, took over and started communicating in its stead. The signals were then timed and designed to indicate a track out to the Indian Ocean. (...to confuse WP ...)

Perhaps by spoofing the AES ID from an airborne lab and then the lab would assume the flight path attributed to MH370? I think this was ruled out as not possible in earlier threads, but then again, it would take care of all the details quite nicely.
Life is too short for cheap coffee.
 
Backseater
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 7:31 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 218):
-- This would require the log on request to be first detected on the R channel, but in this case it's from the P channel.
-- HOWEVER, the information released shows that the final handshake was initiated by the ground, not by the aircraft, so this makes it unlikely that fuel exhaustion was the trigger for this handshake.

At 00:19:29.416 the AES initiates a logon via the R channel.
I believe that the logon sequence we see starting is also used for handovers.
At that point, if the official candidate tracks are accurate, the a/c is actually near(?) the edges of both IOR and POR coverages.
Not yet clear to me whether that is significant.
 
LovesCoffee
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 7:33 am

Quoting chrisrad (Reply 228):
Quoting mandala499 (Reply 218):-- HOWEVER, the information released shows that the final handshake was initiated by the ground, not by the aircraft, so this makes it unlikely that fuel exhaustion was the trigger for this handshake.

Can you eloborate on this????????

It fits Pihero's autopilot controlled 100 fpm descent scenario. CFIT (water) with fuel left.
Life is too short for cheap coffee.
 
mandala499
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 7:41 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 222):
I can at least claim that I was the first person (for a long time the only person) on here to maintain that MH370 crashed less than a hundred nms. from Australia and Vietnam, rather than on the other side of the world.

Perhaps you can enlighten us on how it can crash less than 100nms from Australia and less than 100nms from Vietnam at the same time?   

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 224):
From "Thomson TRS-2215/TRS-2230: Radar Andalan Pertahanan Udara RI Era 80-an" translation dated 07/09/2013

Translated as: "The defence radar the country relies upon is from the 80s"... *oops*

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 224):
What is really too bad, is that no one is trying to determine how many hours per day Sabang radar is operational. Intel people can and probably routinely do that very easily using LEOs ( 1MW pulses can be heard very, very far!).
If it was off for whatever reason, the Indonesian military could easily have said "Gee, that's too bad, Sabang 233 was undergoing maintenance that night". Then Sabang disappears from path/altitude constraints we are trying to deal with.

Indonesians just don't want to admit publicly that our (lack of) defence needs maintenance... that is the sad mentality of us.

Quoting sipadan (Reply 225):
Mandala, you lost me here...You say an "aircraft initiated log-on occurred at 18:25, which is BEFORE the transponder going offine". Didn't the transponder go offline at 17:22-23.? Maybe I'm confused, h
have my terminology mixed up, or maybe typo??

Loss of satcom "sometime after 17:07", and satcom didn't come online until 18:25. At what time did the satcom go off, we don't know exactly... it could very well have been at 17:21-17:23.

Quoting sipadan (Reply 225):
Are you sure of this? This is a pretty jaw-dropping piece of info that we are JUST NOW learning about. Why would the ground station be trying to contact the aircraft at this time...I'm lost in the wilderness now.

And yes stupid me, I misread the rows... it was the aircraft initiating the log on. Therefore this line:
-- HOWEVER, the information released shows that the final handshake was initiated by the ground, not by the aircraft, so this makes it unlikely that fuel exhaustion was the trigger for this handshake.
is NOT correct.

Thank you for picking that up. The fuel exhaustion argument for the final handshake still stands.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 226):
If they used navigational waypoints normally used in the arrivals into Penang, why would they fly at cruise altitude through those waypoints? It doesn't make sense (in the sense of a logical scenario, as hardly anything makes sense regarding this disappearance).

Simple... they did not descend because they were doing something else. That created a discontinuity on the LEGS page as the aircraft tried to turn to follow the legs... and continued on the heading where it discontinued.
Either that, or the autopilot might have disconnected while the crew was busy doing something else and they just straightened it out.
It is only a possibility... This scenario possibility haven't been built up yet by me so don't vouch on that being true!
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
sipadan
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 9:29 am

So this is interesting...CNN's Renee Marsh is reporting that a bundle of hydrophones detected something consistent with a plane crash on the morning of March 8th. These are apparently not SOSUS (US Navy) related listening devices but, rather, underwater listening posts installed/deployed under the United Nations Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.

She called it 'another lead' and quickly followed with a pointed qualifier; that apparently wherever this detection occurred is inconsistent with other data in relation to track and direction of the plane.

The temptation and inclination at this point is to summarily dismiss this out of hand. However, and this is telling in regards to mine and many others confidence in the Inmarsat data, that it is NOT consistent with the Inmarsat data does not make it any less compelling. She seemed to stress that it was nowhere close to the current search area (my interpretation).

I find the timing of the 'leak' interesting, also that it's cast with the august UN...probably nothing, but who knows?
 
asetiadi
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 9:42 am

so the plane is not in Indian Ocean, that means the whole data was wrong. Meaning, 100% they have no idea where it is.

You know, it's almost hard to believe that you can lose a Boeing 777 with our current technology. I mean seriously...
Adam Air Crashed was difficult and also mysterious at that time but yet they at least found a wreckage although at the beginning they searched on the wrong area.

This MH370 case, no wreckage found..... I seriously doubt this plane went into the sea. and I never understand why they started to search the plane after 4 hours went missing?! not from the beginning.
 
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BaconButty
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 9:49 am

Quoting LovesCoffee (Reply 217):
This would appear to cast some doubt on the Inmarsat conclusions as to the location of the airplane.

No it doesn't - the satcom data places the aircraft on an arc, and furthermore the southern portion of that arc. The place they started searching was based on estimated endurance given what they knew about the aircraft, its last known position, its fuel load and it's initial fuel burn based on primary radar data. They have long since re-assessed the latter, which meant the principle search area moving northwards along the arc.
Down with that sort of thing!
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 9:52 am

Quoting LovesCoffee (Reply 217):
"Search area for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 'can now be discounted'"

Ouch!

Quoting LovesCoffee (Reply 217):
This would appear to cast some doubt on the Inmarsat conclusions as to the location of the airplane.

I have always had doubt  
Quoting Skydrol (Reply 221):
And how are the MH370 passengers' families to deal with this?

Ask MAS or the Malaysian Government - they need to address that issue. Moreover, now that the underwater search is off, the spotlight is turning back to Malaysia where it started...

Quoting Skydrol (Reply 221):
Forget about aircraft enthusiasts here, the families need, and deserve to find out what really happened, in attempt to carry on with their lives and grieving / healing process...

They sure do. But they might never know. I wonder if any of them realize this?

The reality is, the plane could be anywhere within 8 or so hours from where it went missing. Assuming that at least some of the radar data is correct and the plane turned around it would most likely be somewhere West. Given all the screw ups, I don't even have faith in any of the radar data now - who really knows which way it headed. Nonetheless, if the T7 is found at the bottom of the Mariana Trench I would not be surprised, nor would I if it turned up in a remote area of China or Australia. Maybe one day some debris will wash up somewhere? Unless, of course, they are in a current that just goes round n' round...
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WarrenPlatts
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 10:02 am

Quoting asetiadi (Reply 234):
You know, it's almost hard to believe that you can lose a Boeing 777 with our current technology. I mean seriously...

It's not the first time it's happened--and I'm not talking about Amelia Earhart: there was that 727 that was stolen from Angola in 2003. It disappeared without a trace...
 
jetsetter1969
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 10:12 am

so with the ping seach area having not revealed anythimg with the bluefin 21 is the next step enlarging the search footprint in the same area?

when there were reports of 24m long objects floating in the southern indian ocean picked up by satellite imagery, were these followed up? 24m would be twice the size of a large shipping container and given the wingspan of a 77-200er is approx 60m then it might not be unrealisitc to pursue the possibility of a substantial piece of wreckage.

cheers
Dave
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 10:12 am

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 237):
Quoting asetiadi (Reply 234):
You know, it's almost hard to believe that you can lose a Boeing 777 with our current technology. I mean seriously...

It's not the first time it's happened--and I'm not talking about Amelia Earhart: there was that 727 that was stolen from Angola in 2003. It disappeared without a trace...

And this gem from 1947: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1947_BS...vro_Lancastrian_Star_Dust_accident

"In the late 1990s, pieces of wreckage from the missing aircraft began to emerge from the glacial ice. It is now assumed that the crew became confused as to their exact location while flying at high altitudes through the (then poorly understood) jet stream. Mistakenly believing they had already cleared the mountain tops, they started their descent when they were in fact still behind cloud-covered peaks, and Star Dust crashed into Mount Tupungato, killing all aboard and burying itself in snow and ice."
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 10:14 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 233):

So this is interesting...CNN's Renee Marsh is reporting that a bundle of hydrophones detected something consistent with a plane crash on the morning of March 8th.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-2...am-researches-mh370-sounds/5487054



little different to the CNN report  
 
asetiadi
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 10:25 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 236):
Ask MAS or the Malaysian Government - they need to address that issue. Moreover, now that the underwater search is off, the spotlight is turning back to Malaysia where it started...

or we can ask Snowden to help analyze the data since he is the expert in hacking and analyzing difficult datas.
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 10:32 am

Quoting CabSauv (Reply 240):
Quoting sipadan (Reply 233):

So this is interesting...CNN's Renee Marsh is reporting that a bundle of hydrophones detected something consistent with a plane crash on the morning of March 8th.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-2...am-researches-mh370-sounds/5487054



little different to the CNN report

I think we have reached the stage where, until the plane is found, any article can legitimately be doubted...

From that link, there was a link to this gem of an article from early on:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-1...-over-missing-planes-pilot/5330396

Ibrahim from the article: ""Describing Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah as a "decent man",""

Didn't Ibrahim earlier say this: ""“I am not one to hide my associations with others. I have met him once or twice but I do not remember how many times,” he said.""

From: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...nce-blossomed-training-school.html

Interesting how Ibrahim can describe somebody as 'decent' after only meeting them once or twice and originally appearing to distance themselves from them...
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LTC8K6
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 10:47 am

http://news.yahoo.com/us-navy-wont-d...ngs-lead-jet-search-010746939.html

The underwater pings are apparently valid again...
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 10:49 am

Quote:
Update on MH370 Search

Media Release
29 May 2014—pm

Yesterday afternoon, Bluefin-21 completed its last mission searching the remaining areas in the vicinity of the acoustic signals detected in early April by the Towed Pinger Locator deployed from ADV Ocean Shield, within its depth operating limits.

The data collected on yesterday's mission has been analysed. As a result, the Joint Agency Coordination Centre can advise that no signs of aircraft debris have been found by the Autonomous Underwater Vehicle since it joined the search effort.

Since Bluefin-21 has been involved in the search, it has scoured over 850 square kilometres of the ocean floor looking for signs of the missing aircraft.

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) has advised that the search in the vicinity of the acoustic detections can now be considered complete and in its professional judgement, the area can now be discounted as the final resting place of MH370.

Ocean Shield departed the search area last night and is expected to arrive at Fleet Base West on Saturday.

As advised by the Australian Deputy Prime Minister on 5 May 2014, the search for MH370 continues and now involves three major stages:
◾reviewing all existing information and analysis to define a search zone of up to 60,000 square kilometres along the arc in the southern Indian Ocean;
◾conducting a bathymetric survey to map the sea floor in the defined search area; and
◾acquiring the specialist services required for a comprehensive search of the sea floor in that area.

The expert satellite working group continues to review and refine complex analyses of radar and satellite data and aircraft performance data to determine where the aircraft most likely entered the water. The findings of the review will be made public in due course.

The Chinese survey ship Zhu Kezhen has already begun conducting the bathymetric survey—or mapping of the ocean floor—of the areas provided by the ATSB. Its operations are being supported by the Chinese ship Haixun 01 and Malaysian vessel Bunga Mas 6 which are assisting with transporting the survey data to Fremantle weekly for further processing by Geoscience Australia. A contracted survey vessel will join the Zhu Kezhen in June.

The bathymetric survey is expected to take about three months. Knowing the seafloor terrain is crucial to enabling the subsequent underwater search.

The underwater search will aim to locate the aircraft and any evidence (such as aircraft debris and flight recorders) to assist with the Malaysian investigation of the disappearance of MH370.

It is anticipated that this component of the search will begin in August and take up to 12 months.

The ATSB will shortly release a formal request for tender to source the capability to undertake the underwater search. A single prime contractor will be chosen to bring together and manage the expertise, equipment and vessels to carry out the search.

The request for tender will be done via AusTender, the Australian Government Tender System: www.tenders.gov.au

Source: http://www.jacc.gov.au/media/releases/2014/may/mr048.aspx
 
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777Jet
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 10:55 am

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 243):
http://news.yahoo.com/us-navy-wont-d...ngs-lead-jet-search-010746939.html

The underwater pings are apparently valid again...

They were never 'valid'... The media circus continues...
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aerorobnz
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 11:00 am

They make believe that it is for the families they do all this, but it is more just their phobia of leaving anything unexplained than anything else driving this search. Now *SHOCK/HORROR* we find out they are so desperate to find it that they interpret anything as being a sign. Much like the team of Finding Bigfoot hear/see bigfoot whenever they look into the darkness, regardless of whether there is or not.

As I said many parts ago. They are spending good money after bad on a futile goal. Sure they may one day find a tiny portion of the wreckage but they will never adequately find out what happened. Mother Nature will already have made sure that all Souls on Board are recycled back into the ecosystem they crashed into, so no point in that regard too. The longer they draw this out the harder for families it is.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
CabSauv
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 11:05 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 245):
The media circus continues...

Indeed !

Narcotizing dysfunction will soon follow

[Edited 2014-05-29 04:06:54]
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 12:34 pm

Quoting FLY744 (Reply 205):
Can I suggest that you read ICAO Annex 13 before you make any more statements such as this. I think you will find that all parties are very constrained in what they can say by that Annex.

I guess US entities have to contemplate either to follow Annex 13 or some future US congressional investigation. My take US Navy cares more about congressional investigation than ICAO Annex 13. Otherwise they wouldn't have bypassed Australia and Malaysia to make such statement.
 
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alberchico
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RE: MH Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 64

Thu May 29, 2014 1:29 pm

Considering that no debris was ever found in this area I always suspected something might be wrong with focusing on this search area. BTW has any debris or oil slicks been found at all ?
short summary of every jewish holiday: they tried to kill us ,we won , lets eat !
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